I have not had the chance to fully post mortem the last couple of games - and bactotherac and Degaz are usually ahead of me, doing a great job, before I can post a full post mortem. Thought I'd chime in here since I have the time today.
To start, though we all would have preferred a win - which would have been huge for the team and the season - there are a TON of positives to draw from this game.
1) Amongst other positives, the general positive is that this game shows that when you have 2 potential All Americans, or even All Big Ten players, you can compete with ANY team in the country. To temper this of course, ONLY Harper and Bailey were consistent offensive producers this game, and RU's bench had just 6 points total, hitting just 1-9 FG - and only GOT 9 FG attempts.
2) Another very large positive is RU's net turnover margin. Against Alabama RU forced (and yes, it was forced, not just sloppy by Alabama) 20 Alabama turnovers, while only committing 9 turnovers itself. RU is now averaging just 9 turnovers per game through 7 games ... still a small sample size, but a very positive sign , a very big deal IMO. This differential in this game was a big factor in nearly offsetting RU's very large rebounding deficit (an ongoing issue). For the season, in 7 games, RU is averaging a 4.4 per game net positive turnover margin (committing 9.1/g creating 13.6/g).
3) Of course, though everyone has commented on this - and no amount of discussion on this subject is sufficient, yet another big positive: The play of Harper and Bailey. Bailey was simply outstanding in this game (more later), but of course Harper was ... in another universe of excellence compared to every other player on both teams. In a VERY small sample size (like 2 games, back to back), Harper has been literally the best player in the country (not freshmen, but PLAYER). And on the small sample size of just 7 games, you could make the case he is one of the 3 best players in the country NOW (Johni Broome of Auburn as 1, and I am sure there is someone else in the conversation).
4) RU had improved FT shooting coming into this game, and in a small sample size of 7 games, assisted by 30-35 in this game, RU is now shooting 73.8% FT on the season. In THIS game, RU was 30-35, one of its best every FT performances in any single game (combining high quantity with high %).. But it is as consistent a theme as RU's weak-ass rebounding: RU is shooting more FT's, and at a higher make % than they have in a long, long time. Even BEFORE the Alabama game RUMADE more FT (108) than it opposition had TAKEN (83). And now, after this game RU has still MADE more FT (138) than its opposition has TAKEN (119) ... RU is averaging making almost 20 FT per game, while allowing just 11 made FT per game. Now, perhaps that is because to foul you have to actually make contact with the opposing players (i.e. play tighter defense?), but even so ... RU is objectively getting to the FT line a LOT, and is making them at a high percentage. It helps that the correct players are taking the FT's: Harper, #1 (54 FT's, 78%), but in order after Harper, RU's top FT shooters by attempts are: Derkack (70%) - 27 FT, Sommerville (80%) - 25 FT, Bailey in 5 games (78%) and Ogbole (56%) - 18 FT's each ,,, then Williams in 6 games (86%) - 14 FT's.
Now there were also negatives, no surprise. These include:
1) Rebounding - are lack thereof. This has been an ongoing concern, rightly so. And I see no full solution. Yes, things can improve - Pikiell WILL get the team improving on rebounding, I believe. But my guess is that this is one of the holes in the team that will have to be papered over, finding other elements to perform at an advantage against opponents that offset this disadvantage. Alabama particularly abused RU, 43-31 overall, but worse, with 16 offensive rebounds - almost as many as RU's 19 DEFENSIVE rebounds. That said, perhaps not a silver lining, but maybe more of a silver polka dot: RU appeared to do a bit better with its OWN offensive rebounding than in prior games (fueled by a strong effort by Ogbole), and a team effort.
2) 3-point shooting: It is very difficult to win ANY games hitting just 2 3-pointers in ANY game - let along against a good team, and especially a good offensive team (especially when that team hits 10) ... and the PERCENTAGE was bad also, at 2-13. RU was actually shooting okay coming into the game (fan angst aside): 35% - which probably would be the best RU has ever done under Pikiell, maybe its best ever, or close. RU is now shooting 33% on the year - not good, though a modest improvement over last season (a way too low hurdle). Harper and Bailey were 1-6 - and 2 or 3 were not good choices. The rest of the team was 1-7 ... and ALL were wide open, good shots that had to be taken (except MAYBE Martini's deep 3 try). But all missed. Look, it is worrying. But Derkack is GOING to hit some of those shots - he did not in this game ... Martini (0-2) is going to hit some). The problem is that Hayes got no attempts and Martini got just 2 - RU's 2 best 3-point shooters (though actually Bailey is hitting 43%, better than Martini - on the same # of tries). The problem is that Hayes has been so poor defensively the last 2-3 games the HOPE for a 3-pointer or two made cannot justify his being on the court more ... Same with Martini. Hopefully there will be games where the other team does not have such athletic front-court players as Alabama, and Martini and Hayes can match up a little better. Also, neither Martini not Hyaes can or will take (and not should they) CONTESTED 3's - unlike Bailey wh can take and make contested 3's. So their opportunities are limited to being wide open only shots - which other teams seem to be aware of.
3) Defense: So ... I know it sounds ridiculous in a game where the opposing team hit 40% from 3 and 52% overall (plus got 16 offensive rebounds), and gave up 95 points, but I actually thought RU's defense was improved versus Alabama. I thought Bailey, in particular, was vastly improved with his defensive effort and fundamentals. Harper was very solid to very goo also. Williams was very good as well (his 1st 2 fouls were totally phantom fouls, should never have been called). Even Derkack, though he sometimes gambled a bit and occasionally got burned, was very good. Ogbole had a better defensive game also. Still, Sommerville is ... to be generous, a work in progress. Martini cannot cover tall athletic players, Hayes was regularly abused. Acuff, though he did get burned a couple of times, I thought was definitely improved in defensive focus and effort. And Davis WAS better defensively as well than he had been in the prior 3 games (where he was not that good) - and Davis HAS to be good defensively to get playing time.
Players:
Harper: Words cannot express ... Amazing, fantastic, unguardable. Showed an terrific variety of shots from different places on the floor. He started the game 1-5 FG, hit 9 of the next 10 shots, ending 11-19. Plus 15-16 FT (great percentage, and all the fouls on him were legitimately real fouls). The one fly was 0-3 3-pointers, now down to 27% on the year with 29 attempts (the most on the team). We will want to see that improve to above 30%, preferably 33%. Also, he DID have a number of opportunities to pass the ball to the wing even more than he did (twice he had Bailey wide opn at the 3-point line but took it to the rim) - but tough to complain when he was MAKING almost all those shots. Plsu he DID pass the ball to the wing at least 4 times when his teammates MISSED wide open 3's - he could easily have had 3-4 more assists if his teammates had made their shots. The superlatives, even in a small sample size, are extraordinary. Please, lets not get disappointed when he "only" scores 20-22 points in a game, or heaven forfend has a bad shooting game and does worse. We ARE seeing his current ceiling: A First Team All American. His floor, remember, is still also very high.
Bailey: If not for Harper's ridiculous performance, and Harper's ridiculous back to back performances, we'd be saying "WOW" in re Bailey's game. He was excellent, in my opinion - though NOT his ceiling (he will have games where he scores and rebounds more). What I liked is that he played HARD, especially on defense. You could see the improved defensive effort: very active hands, better help defense, anticipating jumping into the passing lanes. And 22 points on 9-18 FG and 3-3 FT (just 1-3 3-pointers). And he DID take the ball to the rim on offense several times. We will see more games like this, and more points in a game before the season is over. BUT ... we will also see some games where hi misses some of those contested shots. I continue to believe the shots are not as contested as they might look to us, the fanes, because of his ability to get separation and elevation. He was getting clean shots with 6'8" to 6'10" inch athletic players in his face - still clean looks, IMO.
Williams: If anyone doubts the importance of a healthy Williams, the last 2 games show how important he is. Yes, not a 3-point shooter. But he does everything else you need from a complementary 3rd player: He can score in the mid-range hit FT, rebounds, and defend. The 1st 2 fouls called on him were IMO phantom fouls that should never have been called. And though he is not a great 3-point shooter, I would much rather have him in position to take the 3's Derkack took down the stretch: Just from an experience perspective. HE is the player with the best chance to give 10+ ppg on a consistent basis, to complement Harper and Bailey. Others on the team may end up having individual games scoring more than Williams (any of Derkack, Acuff, Sommerville, Hayes or Martini are all candidates, and have done so - except Acuff) ... but game in game out, Williams predictable and reliable FLOOR is impoertant.
Ogbole: Quite simply the best game he has played in his college career - and against multiple tall and athletic opposing post players. And he was just 2-6 FG ... though he DID hit 5-6 FT (huge shots) ... 9 points, 8 rebounds, 1 steal and 1 TO - playing decent to solid defense. He does still look awkward shooting anything but an uncontested dunk or lay-up, but you can see he has the potential to improve from here - and maybe not be a star, but be a real contributor. He does have a problem covering the high screen on defense - he just is not quick enough (or maybe not know enough either yet) to know when and how to best hedge, jump or switch. I would add, his screens for Haroper on offense were truly excellent, and one reason Harper was able to penetrate so much. Definitely room to improve, but some hope given also, especially against less athletic post players.
Derkack: Sigh ... he is so aggressive (in a positive way mostly). He is athletic. he has a lot of positive aspects. But he is really struggling with his shot selection. More than any other player he takes shots he shouldn't - or misses because he is TOO aggressive and not patient enough. Well, Bailey - except Bailey takes shot OTHER players should not take but those shots are not as bad for Bailey because of Bailey's skills. By the way, even after going 309 vs Alabama, Derkack is still 14-29 from 2 point range on the year ... it is the 3-15 from 3 (and 0-3 vs Alabama) that hurts so much. He is wide open on most of those 3's - he has GOT to hit 30% of them, or stop taking them. Williams, by the way, often passes on open 3's to drive and pull up, or take floating mid-range shots, but Derkack has not shown he has the mid-range game Williams has, at least not yet. Derkack is basically a at the rim player or 3-point shooter - who misses the 3-pointers. Now, this is still a small sample size. Alabama's Darin Stevenson, after all, came into the RU game 0-17 from 3 on the season in 6 games - and hit 2-3 vs RU. So, we have time. But Derkakc probably also only played 27 minutes vs Alabama because of Williams' foul trouble. I still like Derkack and think he has a lot of potential.
Others: In one paragraph .. Acuff - I actually thought he did a lot better, gave good minutes (forced to because of Williams' fouls), did not force things, and while not a oplus defender (got burned occasionally) showed better defensive movement and focus - still a lot fo upside there for this year ... Sommerville - ugh ... became a sinkhole on offense - he has got to pass the ball out to the wing from time to time - got abused on rebounding, boxing out and defense - a LOT of potential still, a very high ceiling of double digit ppg and 4-6 rebounds and is leading RU in blocked shots, but still a learning curve ... Martini - cannot cover athletic and tall post players, WILL hit open 3-pointers though he missed his only 2 vs Alabama - a role player who will get more minuets against different match ups ... Hayes - can shoot like hell, but really abused on defense again ... Davis - I know I am in the minoriity, but I thoght he did better on defense than in the prior couple of games, and I did not have a problem with ANY of his shots vs Alabama - all good ones - but he has to start hitting some of them to get more playing time.
To start, though we all would have preferred a win - which would have been huge for the team and the season - there are a TON of positives to draw from this game.
1) Amongst other positives, the general positive is that this game shows that when you have 2 potential All Americans, or even All Big Ten players, you can compete with ANY team in the country. To temper this of course, ONLY Harper and Bailey were consistent offensive producers this game, and RU's bench had just 6 points total, hitting just 1-9 FG - and only GOT 9 FG attempts.
2) Another very large positive is RU's net turnover margin. Against Alabama RU forced (and yes, it was forced, not just sloppy by Alabama) 20 Alabama turnovers, while only committing 9 turnovers itself. RU is now averaging just 9 turnovers per game through 7 games ... still a small sample size, but a very positive sign , a very big deal IMO. This differential in this game was a big factor in nearly offsetting RU's very large rebounding deficit (an ongoing issue). For the season, in 7 games, RU is averaging a 4.4 per game net positive turnover margin (committing 9.1/g creating 13.6/g).
3) Of course, though everyone has commented on this - and no amount of discussion on this subject is sufficient, yet another big positive: The play of Harper and Bailey. Bailey was simply outstanding in this game (more later), but of course Harper was ... in another universe of excellence compared to every other player on both teams. In a VERY small sample size (like 2 games, back to back), Harper has been literally the best player in the country (not freshmen, but PLAYER). And on the small sample size of just 7 games, you could make the case he is one of the 3 best players in the country NOW (Johni Broome of Auburn as 1, and I am sure there is someone else in the conversation).
4) RU had improved FT shooting coming into this game, and in a small sample size of 7 games, assisted by 30-35 in this game, RU is now shooting 73.8% FT on the season. In THIS game, RU was 30-35, one of its best every FT performances in any single game (combining high quantity with high %).. But it is as consistent a theme as RU's weak-ass rebounding: RU is shooting more FT's, and at a higher make % than they have in a long, long time. Even BEFORE the Alabama game RUMADE more FT (108) than it opposition had TAKEN (83). And now, after this game RU has still MADE more FT (138) than its opposition has TAKEN (119) ... RU is averaging making almost 20 FT per game, while allowing just 11 made FT per game. Now, perhaps that is because to foul you have to actually make contact with the opposing players (i.e. play tighter defense?), but even so ... RU is objectively getting to the FT line a LOT, and is making them at a high percentage. It helps that the correct players are taking the FT's: Harper, #1 (54 FT's, 78%), but in order after Harper, RU's top FT shooters by attempts are: Derkack (70%) - 27 FT, Sommerville (80%) - 25 FT, Bailey in 5 games (78%) and Ogbole (56%) - 18 FT's each ,,, then Williams in 6 games (86%) - 14 FT's.
Now there were also negatives, no surprise. These include:
1) Rebounding - are lack thereof. This has been an ongoing concern, rightly so. And I see no full solution. Yes, things can improve - Pikiell WILL get the team improving on rebounding, I believe. But my guess is that this is one of the holes in the team that will have to be papered over, finding other elements to perform at an advantage against opponents that offset this disadvantage. Alabama particularly abused RU, 43-31 overall, but worse, with 16 offensive rebounds - almost as many as RU's 19 DEFENSIVE rebounds. That said, perhaps not a silver lining, but maybe more of a silver polka dot: RU appeared to do a bit better with its OWN offensive rebounding than in prior games (fueled by a strong effort by Ogbole), and a team effort.
2) 3-point shooting: It is very difficult to win ANY games hitting just 2 3-pointers in ANY game - let along against a good team, and especially a good offensive team (especially when that team hits 10) ... and the PERCENTAGE was bad also, at 2-13. RU was actually shooting okay coming into the game (fan angst aside): 35% - which probably would be the best RU has ever done under Pikiell, maybe its best ever, or close. RU is now shooting 33% on the year - not good, though a modest improvement over last season (a way too low hurdle). Harper and Bailey were 1-6 - and 2 or 3 were not good choices. The rest of the team was 1-7 ... and ALL were wide open, good shots that had to be taken (except MAYBE Martini's deep 3 try). But all missed. Look, it is worrying. But Derkack is GOING to hit some of those shots - he did not in this game ... Martini (0-2) is going to hit some). The problem is that Hayes got no attempts and Martini got just 2 - RU's 2 best 3-point shooters (though actually Bailey is hitting 43%, better than Martini - on the same # of tries). The problem is that Hayes has been so poor defensively the last 2-3 games the HOPE for a 3-pointer or two made cannot justify his being on the court more ... Same with Martini. Hopefully there will be games where the other team does not have such athletic front-court players as Alabama, and Martini and Hayes can match up a little better. Also, neither Martini not Hyaes can or will take (and not should they) CONTESTED 3's - unlike Bailey wh can take and make contested 3's. So their opportunities are limited to being wide open only shots - which other teams seem to be aware of.
3) Defense: So ... I know it sounds ridiculous in a game where the opposing team hit 40% from 3 and 52% overall (plus got 16 offensive rebounds), and gave up 95 points, but I actually thought RU's defense was improved versus Alabama. I thought Bailey, in particular, was vastly improved with his defensive effort and fundamentals. Harper was very solid to very goo also. Williams was very good as well (his 1st 2 fouls were totally phantom fouls, should never have been called). Even Derkack, though he sometimes gambled a bit and occasionally got burned, was very good. Ogbole had a better defensive game also. Still, Sommerville is ... to be generous, a work in progress. Martini cannot cover tall athletic players, Hayes was regularly abused. Acuff, though he did get burned a couple of times, I thought was definitely improved in defensive focus and effort. And Davis WAS better defensively as well than he had been in the prior 3 games (where he was not that good) - and Davis HAS to be good defensively to get playing time.
Players:
Harper: Words cannot express ... Amazing, fantastic, unguardable. Showed an terrific variety of shots from different places on the floor. He started the game 1-5 FG, hit 9 of the next 10 shots, ending 11-19. Plus 15-16 FT (great percentage, and all the fouls on him were legitimately real fouls). The one fly was 0-3 3-pointers, now down to 27% on the year with 29 attempts (the most on the team). We will want to see that improve to above 30%, preferably 33%. Also, he DID have a number of opportunities to pass the ball to the wing even more than he did (twice he had Bailey wide opn at the 3-point line but took it to the rim) - but tough to complain when he was MAKING almost all those shots. Plsu he DID pass the ball to the wing at least 4 times when his teammates MISSED wide open 3's - he could easily have had 3-4 more assists if his teammates had made their shots. The superlatives, even in a small sample size, are extraordinary. Please, lets not get disappointed when he "only" scores 20-22 points in a game, or heaven forfend has a bad shooting game and does worse. We ARE seeing his current ceiling: A First Team All American. His floor, remember, is still also very high.
Bailey: If not for Harper's ridiculous performance, and Harper's ridiculous back to back performances, we'd be saying "WOW" in re Bailey's game. He was excellent, in my opinion - though NOT his ceiling (he will have games where he scores and rebounds more). What I liked is that he played HARD, especially on defense. You could see the improved defensive effort: very active hands, better help defense, anticipating jumping into the passing lanes. And 22 points on 9-18 FG and 3-3 FT (just 1-3 3-pointers). And he DID take the ball to the rim on offense several times. We will see more games like this, and more points in a game before the season is over. BUT ... we will also see some games where hi misses some of those contested shots. I continue to believe the shots are not as contested as they might look to us, the fanes, because of his ability to get separation and elevation. He was getting clean shots with 6'8" to 6'10" inch athletic players in his face - still clean looks, IMO.
Williams: If anyone doubts the importance of a healthy Williams, the last 2 games show how important he is. Yes, not a 3-point shooter. But he does everything else you need from a complementary 3rd player: He can score in the mid-range hit FT, rebounds, and defend. The 1st 2 fouls called on him were IMO phantom fouls that should never have been called. And though he is not a great 3-point shooter, I would much rather have him in position to take the 3's Derkack took down the stretch: Just from an experience perspective. HE is the player with the best chance to give 10+ ppg on a consistent basis, to complement Harper and Bailey. Others on the team may end up having individual games scoring more than Williams (any of Derkack, Acuff, Sommerville, Hayes or Martini are all candidates, and have done so - except Acuff) ... but game in game out, Williams predictable and reliable FLOOR is impoertant.
Ogbole: Quite simply the best game he has played in his college career - and against multiple tall and athletic opposing post players. And he was just 2-6 FG ... though he DID hit 5-6 FT (huge shots) ... 9 points, 8 rebounds, 1 steal and 1 TO - playing decent to solid defense. He does still look awkward shooting anything but an uncontested dunk or lay-up, but you can see he has the potential to improve from here - and maybe not be a star, but be a real contributor. He does have a problem covering the high screen on defense - he just is not quick enough (or maybe not know enough either yet) to know when and how to best hedge, jump or switch. I would add, his screens for Haroper on offense were truly excellent, and one reason Harper was able to penetrate so much. Definitely room to improve, but some hope given also, especially against less athletic post players.
Derkack: Sigh ... he is so aggressive (in a positive way mostly). He is athletic. he has a lot of positive aspects. But he is really struggling with his shot selection. More than any other player he takes shots he shouldn't - or misses because he is TOO aggressive and not patient enough. Well, Bailey - except Bailey takes shot OTHER players should not take but those shots are not as bad for Bailey because of Bailey's skills. By the way, even after going 309 vs Alabama, Derkack is still 14-29 from 2 point range on the year ... it is the 3-15 from 3 (and 0-3 vs Alabama) that hurts so much. He is wide open on most of those 3's - he has GOT to hit 30% of them, or stop taking them. Williams, by the way, often passes on open 3's to drive and pull up, or take floating mid-range shots, but Derkack has not shown he has the mid-range game Williams has, at least not yet. Derkack is basically a at the rim player or 3-point shooter - who misses the 3-pointers. Now, this is still a small sample size. Alabama's Darin Stevenson, after all, came into the RU game 0-17 from 3 on the season in 6 games - and hit 2-3 vs RU. So, we have time. But Derkakc probably also only played 27 minutes vs Alabama because of Williams' foul trouble. I still like Derkack and think he has a lot of potential.
Others: In one paragraph .. Acuff - I actually thought he did a lot better, gave good minutes (forced to because of Williams' fouls), did not force things, and while not a oplus defender (got burned occasionally) showed better defensive movement and focus - still a lot fo upside there for this year ... Sommerville - ugh ... became a sinkhole on offense - he has got to pass the ball out to the wing from time to time - got abused on rebounding, boxing out and defense - a LOT of potential still, a very high ceiling of double digit ppg and 4-6 rebounds and is leading RU in blocked shots, but still a learning curve ... Martini - cannot cover athletic and tall post players, WILL hit open 3-pointers though he missed his only 2 vs Alabama - a role player who will get more minuets against different match ups ... Hayes - can shoot like hell, but really abused on defense again ... Davis - I know I am in the minoriity, but I thoght he did better on defense than in the prior couple of games, and I did not have a problem with ANY of his shots vs Alabama - all good ones - but he has to start hitting some of them to get more playing time.
