Predicting 70 points? Why?

[RUsojo]

Seen a few people saying every other game or so that Rutgers will go for 70. Wondering what the line of thinking is here. Against Miami St Johns SHU and our BIG schedule we have score 70 points or more exactly 1 times against Minny.

This is not to blame anyone for our offensive woes but to ask those who believe in our offense why they think we will score 70 more frequently and what changes in lineups or style of play they’d like to see that they think will improve the offense.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

In the 9 real games the tempo has averaged 67.6 possessions so in an average game we need to for 1.035 PPP to hit the magic 70. we have averaged .937 PPP. 67.6* .937 = 63.33 PPG.

Keeping tempo constant (which it most certainly isn't)

We average 6-22 (21.777777) from 3. 8-22 36.4% gets you an extra 6 points
If we shoot 70% vs. 64.7% from the line maybe we pick up 1/2 point.

Those 2 items right there get you to 70. Is shooting 36% from 3 and 70% from 1 an unrealistic goal?

Thought process for NW game.....in those 9 games from 2....
Shaq c 7-10
Shaq D 12-21
Myles J 14-29
Total 33-60 55%
6.667 attempts per game

Baker 19-64
Kiss 14-31
harper 13-32
issa 6-14
total 52-141 36.9%
15.667 attempts per game

moving 3 of the small attempts to the bigs increases scoring for the game by 1 point assuming shooting percentage constant.

If you want to get nitpicky take 2 of Geo's 7 attempts and move them to bigs and you get 1 point right there.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

Readers shouldn't take predictions literally but i believe that RU is more likely to score more points at home than away, more likely to shoot better from 3 home vs away and more likely to get more FTs home vs away.

I don't have any metrics to support that RU shoots better or gets more FTs at home but whether the pace is there to score 70 or not, depends on the opponent and if they push the tempo or shoot quickly. If the opponent doesn't, then the score falls into the 60s or high 50's.....RU is getting better play from the freshman in recent games and frosh are inconsistent, so nobody truly knows if it's going to be a good average or bad day shooting/scoring.

In this matchup, Northwestern isnt a shot blocking team, so it'll be interesting to see how Myles and Carter play inside against similar competition or size. So it wouldn't surprise me if they are able to score inside or get offensive rebounds and putbacks.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

....and mathis getting to the rim like against OSU (no real shot blocker)

 

[BillyC80]

When I pick RU to win a game, which is mostly wishful thinking, I figure that in order to do so they’ll have to score 70 points, which is also wishful thinking.