Qualifying for NCAAs

[PhilaPhans]

Let's say we've got a couple wrestlers in that 25-30 range. While it may be a legit ranking, the B1G is loaded. I'm sure the conference gets a lot of AQs, but what happens to those lower raked wrestlers that just can't get past the kids in their own conference and therefore have a bad record?

How many wildcard slots are out there?

 

[Jaroslav Hasek]

4 WC slots per weight per year. big 10 had 74 qualifying spots per year. will probably have around 80 this year.

less guys in the 25-30 range miss the tourney with the new qualifying system than in the past but youre obviously better off not leaving it up to a wild card selection.

 

[belushijo]

Originally posted by PhilaPhans:
Let's say we've got a couple wrestlers in that 25-30 range. While it may be a legit ranking, the B1G is loaded. I'm sure the conference gets a lot of AQs, but what happens to those lower raked wrestlers that just can't get past the kids in their own conference and therefore have a bad record?

How many wildcard slots are out there?

With all the qualifiers the big ten gets, the chances of getting a wild card in this scenario is not very good. The kid has to have a FEW impressive wins in order to be considered for a wild card. Chances are, if you're in the 25-30 range, you do not have many (if any) big wins that garner you for wild card consideration.

 

[ScarletGrapfan]

Originally posted by belushijo:

Originally posted by PhilaPhans:
Let's say we've got a couple wrestlers in that 25-30 range. While it may be a legit ranking, the B1G is loaded. I'm sure the conference gets a lot of AQs, but what happens to those lower raked wrestlers that just can't get past the kids in their own conference and therefore have a bad record?

How many wildcard slots are out there?

With all the qualifiers the big ten gets, the chances of getting a wild card in this scenario is not very good. The kid has to have a FEW impressive wins in order to be considered for a wild card. Chances are, if you're in the 25-30 range, you do not have many (if any) big wins that garner you for wild card consideration.

Belushijo-if you are ranked between 25-30 chances are you earned a bid for your conference, so if you do not place high enough at your conference tournament, you still have a very good chance to get a wild card. Each weight class has 29 auto bids and 4 WC.

 

[belushijo]

Originally posted by ScarletGrapfan:

Originally posted by belushijo:

Originally posted by PhilaPhans:
Let's say we've got a couple wrestlers in that 25-30 range. While it may be a legit ranking, the B1G is loaded. I'm sure the conference gets a lot of AQs, but what happens to those lower raked wrestlers that just can't get past the kids in their own conference and therefore have a bad record?

How many wildcard slots are out there?

With all the qualifiers the big ten gets, the chances of getting a wild card in this scenario is not very good. The kid has to have a FEW impressive wins in order to be considered for a wild card. Chances are, if you're in the 25-30 range, you do not have many (if any) big wins that garner you for wild card consideration.

Belushijo-if you are ranked between 25-30 chances are you earned a bid for your conference, so if you do not place high enough at your conference tournament, you still have a very good chance to get a wild card. Each weight class has 29 auto bids and 4 WC.

I'd like to see a list of B1G wrestlers who were ranked 25-30 (before the big 10 tourny), failed to place and got a wildcard.

I don't pretend to know what the numbers are, but do you think it is high? It's hard for me to think so.

Jaroslav, I've been a reader of your blog since you started and I really enjoy it. You do a great job. Would you have the data sets for something like this?





This post was edited on 1/7 7:31 PM by belushijo

 

[ScarletGrapfan]

Originally posted by belushijo:

Originally posted by ScarletGrapfan:

Originally posted by belushijo:

Originally posted by PhilaPhans:
Let's say we've got a couple wrestlers in that 25-30 range. While it may be a legit ranking, the B1G is loaded. I'm sure the conference gets a lot of AQs, but what happens to those lower raked wrestlers that just can't get past the kids in their own conference and therefore have a bad record?

How many wildcard slots are out there?

With all the qualifiers the big ten gets, the chances of getting a wild card in this scenario is not very good. The kid has to have a FEW impressive wins in order to be considered for a wild card. Chances are, if you're in the 25-30 range, you do not have many (if any) big wins that garner you for wild card consideration.

Belushijo-if you are ranked between 25-30 chances are you earned a bid for your conference, so if you do not place high enough at your conference tournament, you still have a very good chance to get a wild card. Each weight class has 29 auto bids and 4 WC.

I'd like to see a list of B1G wrestlers who were ranked 25-30 (before the big 10 tourny), failed to place and got a wildcard.

I don't pretend to know what the numbers are, but do you think it is high? It's hard for me to think so.

Not sure it would be high either. The most important factor is how many upsets happen at each conference tournament. Every conference tournament gets an auto bid(even if it is not earned). If each conference tournament goes as expected, then a guy ranked 25-30 will get in. 3 things determine the bid--Coaches poll, win % and RPI

 

[LetsGoRUwrestling]

There are no more "Wildcards"...It's an at-large bid...If your ranked in coaches poll/RPI in top 30 and don't get an automatic qualifier spot from conference tournament you probably have a great shot at getting one of the at-large bids if you finish right behind the last conference qualifier.

 

[ScarletGrapfan]

Belushijo- I just checked and as Jaraslov said Big had 74 auto qualifiers last year. They had 6 additional wrestlers qualify with a Wild Card for a total of 80 wrestlers.

 

[LetsGoRUwrestling]

How about 285lbs at B1G Tournament...Looks like the B1G will have 10 Automatic qualifiers..That has to be a record for amount of QF in a weight?

 

[belushijo]

Originally posted by ScarletGrapfan:

Belushijo- I just checked and as Jaraslov said Big had 74 auto qualifiers last year. They had 6 additional wrestlers qualify with a Wild Card for a total of 80 wrestlers.

Cool. Thnx, grapfan.

Would you mind providing the link where you found this if it's not an inconvenience? I'll take the time to check out their rankings to see if they were in the 25-30 range.

Edit: using last years numbers, of all the B1G qualifiers - 6/80 - were at large selections. That works out to 7.5% w/o even looking at the rankings yet.



This post was edited on 1/7 8:07 PM by belushijo

 

[ScarletGrapfan]

Originally posted by belushijo:

Originally posted by ScarletGrapfan:

Belushijo- I just checked and as Jaraslov said Big had 74 auto qualifiers last year. They had 6 additional wrestlers qualify with a Wild Card for a total of 80 wrestlers.

Cool. Thnx, grapfan.

Would you mind providing the link where you found this if it's not an inconvenience?

No problem, the "at large selections" have an * next to their name.

http://www.ncaa.com/news/wrestling/article/2014-03-12/qualifiers-10-weight-classes-revealed-2014-di-wrestling

 

[belushijo]

You da man, grapfan. (see what I did there).

I'm getting 8 at large bids for the Big Ten:

Rossi Bruno @ 133 - Ranked17th
Sabatello @ 141 - Ranked 20th
Brothus @ 141 - Ranked 7th
Paddock @ 149 - Ranked 18th
Dudley @ 184 - Ranked 8th
J. Hein @ 184 (first I've ever heard his name) - Ranked 26th
L.Sheridan @ 184 - Ranked 29th
Jensen @ Hvy - Ranked 22nd.

I'll check out what their latest rankings were prior to the big tens and update the post when I'm finished.

Update: Using the final RPI/Coaches Ranking from The OpenMat.

2/82 wrestlers received at large bids last year who were ranked in the 25-30 range in the final coaches poll. That's 2.5%.

Of the two, Sheridan placed 7th at the Big Ten tourny and Hein failed to place.

1/82 B1G NCAA qualifiers ranked 25-30, who failed to place received an at large bid. 1.21%.

And Hein seems to be an anomaly as he didn't just fail to place at Big Tens, he failed to win a single match. He was ranked as high as #12 at one point last year and had decent wins over Nikko Reyes (unranked at the time), Lucas Sheridan (ranked top 20), Jon Fausey (ranked top 15).

If we want some of our 25-30 range fellas to get an at large bid, they're going to have to have a couple wins against top 20 guys. It would also help if they were highly ranked themselves at one point in the year.

This is only one year, but I would think the numbers don't stray to far from these. I'm sure there are a few outliers, as is the norm when you expand the observations.










This post was edited on 1/7 10:23 PM by belushijo

 

[Jaroslav Hasek]

hey thanks for saying that belushijo, really. now i feel like a jerk for getting on your case about the semantics of seed protection on the other thread :/

good stuff on what it would take for the bubble guys to make it to the tourney. the link below is where i got the info on the qualifying spots per conference plus the last pre-conference tournament RPI ratings.

http://www.ncaa.com/news/wrestling/article/2014-02-27/ncaa-announces-qualifier-allocations-2014-di-wrestling

The Southern Conference and Western Region will likely have several weight classes each where the 1 qualifier would not be in the top 33. ranked guys getting upset or held out of conference tournaments due to injuries eat up a lot of the 'at-large' bids, so if you're on the edge of the top 30 you really want to make sure you earn your spot by placing in your conference.

 

[belushijo]

W/O having a better overall picture of who receives the at large bids in any given year, I get the overall impression the "wildcards" are meant more for the guys in some of the smaller conferences with very few automatic qualifiers.

There's higher marginal utility giving the at large bids out to the smaller conferences, if there are worthy candidates. IMO.

Edit:

P.S. No worries at all re: the other thread. Just a lively discussion amongst diehard wrestling fans. I value your input/opinion as a poster.
This post was edited on 1/7 10:32 PM by belushijo

 

[Leonard23]

Who are we worrying about qualifying for nationals? I see 4 definites: Ashnault, Perrotti, Campo & Smith. Bakuckas, DelVecchio & Theo are on the bubble & really on the outside looking in unless they pull off some nice wins.
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[PhilaPhans]

Guys like Perrotti and Camp have me worried. Then there are guys like
DelVecchio or Bakuckas like you mentioned need to definitely earn their
way in.

If I remember correctly, AP barely earned his way into
the tournament last year. What happens if he continues to lose most of his matches throughout the B1G schedule and ends up with about a .500 overall record with a
bad showing at the B1G tournament because of luck of the draw? He may be the 8th or 9th best wrestler in his weight class in the B1G. Is that good enough to make NCAAs?

As for Camp, he's still not in tip top wrestling shape since he hasn't wrestled for a team in two years and is coming off an injury. What if he goes .500 the rest of the way? That doesn't really reflect just how good he is, but he doesn't have an OOC record or tournament record to hang his hat on to show some good wins.

Ash and Smith are the only definites, in my opinion.

I want a lot of guys to make it, though.

 

[PhilaPhans]

It looks as if my worries that I presented before the match were justified.

Let's hope we can learn from the Illinois match and correct some of the mistakes in time for the postseason.

 

[Passe24]

Unless camp earns it at b10 tourn i just dont see it. The sch coming is brutal for him.