Question to Ponder - What Will Happen to CFB Money When Cable TV Dies?

[kennyschiano]

Right now, the financial future of rutgers and college football is based on massive tv contracts. What do you all think is the future of college football on TV? Carriage fees will die when cable as we know it dies - it will become pay to watch rather than pay no matter what.

Just thought I'd bring up this topic and see what everyone else thinks.

 

[MoobyCow]

It's an obvious question. I think you're likely to still have channels like ESPN that put up good size bids so that people will pay to subscribe to their channel as opposed to offering up individual games for play. Hopefully the games don't wind split up between too many carriers because then it could become a real problem to watch SEC games vs B1G Ten games etc, and that would hurt the popularity of the sport in the long run.

 

[TonyLieske]

So far the trend has been that the more people move away from cable, the more networks are willing to pony up for live events/sports.

At some point it might go the other direction, but it is also not a foregone conclusion that cable with "die."

 

[Bagarocks]

Originally posted by kennyschiano:
Right now, the financial future of rutgers and college football is based on massive tv contracts. What do you all think is the future of college football on TV? Carriage fees will die when cable as we know it dies - it will become pay to watch rather than pay no matter what.

Just thought I'd bring up this topic and see what everyone else thinks.

I believe it will just move on to the next media level.

Town cryers, newspaper, radio, analog TV by antenna, cable tv, satellite TV, internet streaming, whats next?

$$$$ drove or is driving all of them, so the next type of carrier will have to be flexible since the changeover will be gradual, probably generational. Maybe we cant even see where its going to be.

 

[derleider]

Originally posted by MoobyCow:
It's an obvious question. I think you're likely to still have channels like ESPN that put up good size bids so that people will pay to subscribe to their channel as opposed to offering up individual games for play. Hopefully the games don't wind split up between too many carriers because then it could become a real problem to watch SEC games vs B1G Ten games etc, and that would hurt the popularity of the sport in the long run.

That will be interesting to watch. ESPN will be in a precarious situation. The league will have alot of incentive to go on their own and control their own content (after all - why give ESPN a split at all). On the other hand, if ESPN offers access to a high number of sports/leagues in one package, it might sink the league networks. How many people are going to pay for ESPN AND the BTN, if you can get most of the Big games on the ESPN package anyway?

Either way I suspect the money will go down (at least relatively speaking.), but relative to everyone else the BIg Ten is still in good position. Its got alot of population, and rapid fan bases throughout most of its footprint.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Originally posted by Bagarocks:

Town cryers, newspaper, radio, analog TV by antenna, cable tv, satellite TV, internet streaming, whats next?

Neural implants.

 

[HeavenUniv.]

I am sticking with smoke signals and pigeons.

 

[topdecktiger]

One thing to keep in mind is that this era of massive TV contracts is new. Everyone thinks it's always been that way, and will continue to be that way, but it's not the case.

Up until the 80s, there were no TV contracts. The NCAA owned all the rights, and they had the only TV contract. Then in 84, Oklahoma and Georgia won a lawsuit vs. the NCAA, which gave the schools/conferences control over their own rights. The Big Ten and Pac 10 signed with ABC, and everyone else bargained collectively under the College Football Association. The SEC and Big East left the CFA in 95, and everyone else left in 97, when the CFA folded. That's when everybody started signing individual contracts.

Point being, there is nothing to suggest the current setup is destined to last long-term. The contract explosions are most likely a bubble. I think you probably end up with college football as a whole adopting something more along the lines of the NFL.

 

[Scarlet_Scourge]

Us fans will end up paying $10 to $20 a month per sports channel on our computers or streaming device.

So CFB will make even MORE MONEY.

Current streaming sports channels:

WWE channel cost $9.99

BTNPlus $14.95

UFC Fight Pass: $9.99

Then for the big boy stuff....

NFL Sunday Ticket: regular full-season retail price is $239.94

 

[derleider]

Originally posted by topdecktiger:

One thing to keep in mind is that this era of massive TV contracts is new. Everyone thinks it's always been that way, and will continue to be that way, but it's not the case.

Up until the 80s, there were no TV contracts. The NCAA owned all the rights, and they had the only TV contract. Then in 84, Oklahoma and Georgia won a lawsuit vs. the NCAA, which gave the schools/conferences control over their own rights. The Big Ten and Pac 10 signed with ABC, and everyone else bargained collectively under the College Football Association. The SEC and Big East left the CFA in 95, and everyone else left in 97, when the CFA folded. That's when everybody started signing individual contracts.

Point being, there is nothing to suggest the current setup is destined to last long-term. The contract explosions are most likely a bubble. I think you probably end up with college football as a whole adopting something more along the lines of the NFL.

Also - the conference networks are unique confluence of a few things
1) Production costs are low enough that you dont need huge money and staff to put together a decent product
2) Cable has enough bandwidth that they can give pretty much each conference their own network
3) But not so much that we can stream everything (it uses much less bandwidth to send cable - because its one stream going to all of the houses - with internet streams, each device is getting a unique stream.), so cable companies can still charge everyone for the product.

 

[Leonard23]

derleider

eMBMS could likely solve that issue.
Posted from Rivals Mobile

This post was edited on 4/17 2:26 PM by Leonard23

 

[RUtah]

Originally posted by Scarlet_Scourge:
Us fans will end up paying $10 to $20 a month per sports channel on our computers or streaming device.

So CFB will make even MORE MONEY.

Current streaming sports channels:

WWE channel cost $9.99

BTNPlus $14.95

UFC Fight Pass: $9.99

Then for the big boy stuff....

NFL Sunday Ticket: regular full-season retail price is $239.94

Yep, plus ESPN will still get into bidding wars with the usual suspects and maybe even newcomers like YouTube or Google for the 'national' content. The money ain't drying up any time soon, even if cable cords go the way of rabbit ears.