So ... a big test is coming up on Friday, SHU. SHU will be the best or 2nd best team RU will have faced this year, and along with Miami, will be a much better gauge of what RU will face in the Big Ten - especially the upper half of the Big Ten.
SHU should be, and will be, favored - and probably by double digits ... appropriately so.
To start, I would say that SHU and Miami are roughly equivalent - it is too early to tell which of those 2 teams is better. I would have said that SHU is the better shooting team, and relied more on 3-point shooting than does Miami. But the stats do not actually bear that out. Each team has taken roughly the same number of 3-pointers (though Miami has 2 fewer games), and shot about the same percentage from 3 ... SHU does have a slightly better overall FG percent. But SHU is even a worse FT shooting team than RU is, and Miami is very good at FT's. What I can say about Miami is that they have many more LONG and ATHLETIC athletes than does SHU ... and they play 8 players 9 or more minutes. On the other hand, SHU has the single best player on any of the 3 teams (if you include RU), in Carrington ... and by a reasonable margin ... BUT really only goes 7 players deep.
This last item could help RU: RU goes 9 deep, plus Doorson, who at 6.8 minutes per game, as RU's 10th player, plays about the same (though a fraction more) than Miami's 9th player and SHU's 8th and 9th players. Whether RU can take advantage of that ... well we will know more on Friday.
Player Match-Ups:
PG: Sanders versus Jones (5th year grad transfer): Slight Edge to Sanders. I have seen 2 SHU games, and I am impressed with Jones - he is very good, in my opinion. He may also be a better shooter than Sanders, and does have a better assist to turnover ration against a better schedule. Still, Sanders is a better defender, in my opinion, more athletic and a better rebounder. Sanders also averages more assists per game.
2G: Johnson (who has started the last 2 games) versus Carrington: Large Edge to Carrington. Johnson has been very good for RU - a great addition. He has a terrific assist to turnover ratio and is a terrific defender ... plus averages over 4 rebounds per game. Carrington is an NBA prospect ... need I even say more? Carrington shoots 50% overall FG, which includes 50% from 3-point range (on over 4 3-point attempts per game). Carrington's one hole might be his 61% FT shooting.
WF: Laurent/Thiam versus Desi Rodriguez: Large Edge to Rodriguez. Thiam can shoot the 3, is fundamentally sound, and uses his 6'9" height well on defense, while Laurent is very athletic. Rodriguez is very athletic, 6'6", does NOT shoot well from 3-point range this year - nor from the FT line ... but knows how to SCORE, and is SHU's 2nd leading scorer and 2nd leading rebounder. Limiting him will take a great effort by Laurent or Thiam, as starters.
PF: Freeman versus Sanogo: Medium Edge to Freeman. Sanogo is taller, longer and may be able to defend Freeman at times (or more than at times). But he is really just a rebounder and defender - but one who does not block a lot of shots (6 in 9 games). Freeman is RU's best or 2nd best player this year, leading scorer and RU's best rebounder, by far ... who also has 15 blocked shots in 12 games. But Freeman is undersized at PF (listed as taller than he is), has had some trouble finishing around the basket, and can also sometimes be a turnover machine. But he is definitely a much better scorer than Sanogo, and a better offensive and regular rebounder.
C: Gettys versus Delagdo: Medium to Large Edge to Delgado. Yes, Gettys is doing well for RU, and is a true space eater, with high basketball IQ, excellent hands, and good post moves. But Delgado is GOOD, and I mean really good ... in my opinion. The ONLY reason I did not give Delagdo a clear "Large Edge" rating is because though Delgado is really good, he is not the true athletic presence that will really give Gettys problems this year (like Miami did), nor does Delgado have the shooting range some of the Miami post players had that forced Gettys out of his comfort zone defensively. But make no mistake, Delagdo is really much better than Gettys. By the way, that does not mean Gettys does not have a chance to limit Delgado and play him closer to even than some might expect. If that happens a lot of good things could happen for RU in this game.
Bench: This is where it gets interesting:
1st Guard: Williams versus Powell. Edge ... EVEN. So ... Powell is rather good, and a dangerous offensive player. He looks to be a slightly better shooter than Williams. But Williams is 2 years older (Junior to Powell's Frosh status), and a better (and more impactful) rebounder. They play very similar roles for RU and SHU this year: Igniter off the bench, They are similarly sized. Powell takes a higher percentage of his shots from 3-point range (and more of them) than does Williams. Williams has a much better assist to turnover ratio.
1st Forward: Sa versus Nzei. Slight Edge to Sa. Nzei is a very efficient scorer, and seems to only take shots nearer the basket. Sa is rawer offensively, but has 3-point range. Neither can shoot FT's. Both are good rebounders. Both are especially good offensive rebounders (23 offensive to 22 defensive for Nzei, 25 offensive to 29 defensive for Sa). They are similarly poor with their assist to turnover ratios. Sa is a little taller, and plays even taller than that, than does Nzei. Nzei has performed to similar level as Sa against better competition. The reason for the slight edge to Sa? Blocked shots ... Sa is a shot blocker, Nzei is not proven to be one. Sa's slightly better rebounding, and same scoring, in fewer minutes is offset by the better competition Nzei has faced. But Sa seems to be a potentially impact shot blocker, while Nzei does not.
Rest of Bench: RU's Thiam or Laurent, Omoruyi and Doorson versus SHU's ... well ... Gordon, Sofer and Carter (Singh was the 8th man, but announced he was transferring - he averaged 9 minutes per game). Large Edge to RU's Bench. [EDIT: Add Jevon Thomas, PG, to SHU's bench ... maybe change edge to Medium to Large Edge to RU's Bench - see post below.] Thiam and Laurent have each been starters - but only 1 will be a starter now, as it appears Johnson has taken over that slot - Laurent averages 16 minutes per game, Thiam averages 19 minutes per game, though in fairness it appears those minutes are declining, depending on the game match-ups. Omoruyi's minutes seem to be rising, and he now averages 9.6 minutes per game. SHU's other reserve players average no more 6 minutes per game, and seem unlikely to ever play more than 8-10 minutes in any game, barring injury or severe foul trouble. SHU's 8th to 10th players basically provide .. nothing ... nothing except bodies (Carter a front court post body, Gordon a guard body and Sofer a wing body). Thiam or Laurent, Omoruyi and Doorson EACH contribute more than the SHU reserve players combined ... not necessarily in EVERY game, but in many games. The odds would suggest, based on their performance on the court, that at least 2 of those 3 players for RU will contribute more than any of the SHU back 3 players.
Overall, the key for RU to be competitive - not necessarily even win (though maybe) would seem to be the following:
1) Keep Carrington, especially, but secondarily, Rodriguez, from going off on a scoring binge on RU. RU's offense is not likely good enough to withstand either of them lighting it up scoring.
2) Gettys/Doorson/Sa limit Delgado's impact, somehow (either Gettys holding more of his own than expected, or getting Delgado into foul trouble, somehow). If Delgado gets into foul trouble, and Gettys does NOT ... that helps RU a HUGE amount. Easier said than done, though.
3) Hitting at least 33% of RU's 3-point attempts. Since SHU seems very likely to get open 3's against RU (does not every RU opponent do this), RU will have to hit some 3's to limit how much SHU might outscore RU from 3-point range.
4) RU's bench out performing SHU's bench: This is the one clear area where RU might have a real advantage.
5) Freeman finishing around the basket, and outperforming Sanogo. If Sanogo holds his own against Freeman, that is a problem for RU.
6) Sanders having a great floor game ... and a good scoring game - in other words outplaying Jones.
7) Johnson playing under control offensively (no stupid outside shots), and making Carrington owrk on defense.
RU does not need ALL of those above items to be competitive. But they might need all of them to win. I would say the 1st 3 or 4 listed keys are the most important. Item #4 (RU's bench) might be able to offset a failure in Item #5 or #7.
SHU should be, and will be, favored - and probably by double digits ... appropriately so.
To start, I would say that SHU and Miami are roughly equivalent - it is too early to tell which of those 2 teams is better. I would have said that SHU is the better shooting team, and relied more on 3-point shooting than does Miami. But the stats do not actually bear that out. Each team has taken roughly the same number of 3-pointers (though Miami has 2 fewer games), and shot about the same percentage from 3 ... SHU does have a slightly better overall FG percent. But SHU is even a worse FT shooting team than RU is, and Miami is very good at FT's. What I can say about Miami is that they have many more LONG and ATHLETIC athletes than does SHU ... and they play 8 players 9 or more minutes. On the other hand, SHU has the single best player on any of the 3 teams (if you include RU), in Carrington ... and by a reasonable margin ... BUT really only goes 7 players deep.
This last item could help RU: RU goes 9 deep, plus Doorson, who at 6.8 minutes per game, as RU's 10th player, plays about the same (though a fraction more) than Miami's 9th player and SHU's 8th and 9th players. Whether RU can take advantage of that ... well we will know more on Friday.
Player Match-Ups:
PG: Sanders versus Jones (5th year grad transfer): Slight Edge to Sanders. I have seen 2 SHU games, and I am impressed with Jones - he is very good, in my opinion. He may also be a better shooter than Sanders, and does have a better assist to turnover ration against a better schedule. Still, Sanders is a better defender, in my opinion, more athletic and a better rebounder. Sanders also averages more assists per game.
2G: Johnson (who has started the last 2 games) versus Carrington: Large Edge to Carrington. Johnson has been very good for RU - a great addition. He has a terrific assist to turnover ratio and is a terrific defender ... plus averages over 4 rebounds per game. Carrington is an NBA prospect ... need I even say more? Carrington shoots 50% overall FG, which includes 50% from 3-point range (on over 4 3-point attempts per game). Carrington's one hole might be his 61% FT shooting.
WF: Laurent/Thiam versus Desi Rodriguez: Large Edge to Rodriguez. Thiam can shoot the 3, is fundamentally sound, and uses his 6'9" height well on defense, while Laurent is very athletic. Rodriguez is very athletic, 6'6", does NOT shoot well from 3-point range this year - nor from the FT line ... but knows how to SCORE, and is SHU's 2nd leading scorer and 2nd leading rebounder. Limiting him will take a great effort by Laurent or Thiam, as starters.
PF: Freeman versus Sanogo: Medium Edge to Freeman. Sanogo is taller, longer and may be able to defend Freeman at times (or more than at times). But he is really just a rebounder and defender - but one who does not block a lot of shots (6 in 9 games). Freeman is RU's best or 2nd best player this year, leading scorer and RU's best rebounder, by far ... who also has 15 blocked shots in 12 games. But Freeman is undersized at PF (listed as taller than he is), has had some trouble finishing around the basket, and can also sometimes be a turnover machine. But he is definitely a much better scorer than Sanogo, and a better offensive and regular rebounder.
C: Gettys versus Delagdo: Medium to Large Edge to Delgado. Yes, Gettys is doing well for RU, and is a true space eater, with high basketball IQ, excellent hands, and good post moves. But Delgado is GOOD, and I mean really good ... in my opinion. The ONLY reason I did not give Delagdo a clear "Large Edge" rating is because though Delgado is really good, he is not the true athletic presence that will really give Gettys problems this year (like Miami did), nor does Delgado have the shooting range some of the Miami post players had that forced Gettys out of his comfort zone defensively. But make no mistake, Delagdo is really much better than Gettys. By the way, that does not mean Gettys does not have a chance to limit Delgado and play him closer to even than some might expect. If that happens a lot of good things could happen for RU in this game.
Bench: This is where it gets interesting:
1st Guard: Williams versus Powell. Edge ... EVEN. So ... Powell is rather good, and a dangerous offensive player. He looks to be a slightly better shooter than Williams. But Williams is 2 years older (Junior to Powell's Frosh status), and a better (and more impactful) rebounder. They play very similar roles for RU and SHU this year: Igniter off the bench, They are similarly sized. Powell takes a higher percentage of his shots from 3-point range (and more of them) than does Williams. Williams has a much better assist to turnover ratio.
1st Forward: Sa versus Nzei. Slight Edge to Sa. Nzei is a very efficient scorer, and seems to only take shots nearer the basket. Sa is rawer offensively, but has 3-point range. Neither can shoot FT's. Both are good rebounders. Both are especially good offensive rebounders (23 offensive to 22 defensive for Nzei, 25 offensive to 29 defensive for Sa). They are similarly poor with their assist to turnover ratios. Sa is a little taller, and plays even taller than that, than does Nzei. Nzei has performed to similar level as Sa against better competition. The reason for the slight edge to Sa? Blocked shots ... Sa is a shot blocker, Nzei is not proven to be one. Sa's slightly better rebounding, and same scoring, in fewer minutes is offset by the better competition Nzei has faced. But Sa seems to be a potentially impact shot blocker, while Nzei does not.
Rest of Bench: RU's Thiam or Laurent, Omoruyi and Doorson versus SHU's ... well ... Gordon, Sofer and Carter (Singh was the 8th man, but announced he was transferring - he averaged 9 minutes per game). Large Edge to RU's Bench. [EDIT: Add Jevon Thomas, PG, to SHU's bench ... maybe change edge to Medium to Large Edge to RU's Bench - see post below.] Thiam and Laurent have each been starters - but only 1 will be a starter now, as it appears Johnson has taken over that slot - Laurent averages 16 minutes per game, Thiam averages 19 minutes per game, though in fairness it appears those minutes are declining, depending on the game match-ups. Omoruyi's minutes seem to be rising, and he now averages 9.6 minutes per game. SHU's other reserve players average no more 6 minutes per game, and seem unlikely to ever play more than 8-10 minutes in any game, barring injury or severe foul trouble. SHU's 8th to 10th players basically provide .. nothing ... nothing except bodies (Carter a front court post body, Gordon a guard body and Sofer a wing body). Thiam or Laurent, Omoruyi and Doorson EACH contribute more than the SHU reserve players combined ... not necessarily in EVERY game, but in many games. The odds would suggest, based on their performance on the court, that at least 2 of those 3 players for RU will contribute more than any of the SHU back 3 players.
Overall, the key for RU to be competitive - not necessarily even win (though maybe) would seem to be the following:
1) Keep Carrington, especially, but secondarily, Rodriguez, from going off on a scoring binge on RU. RU's offense is not likely good enough to withstand either of them lighting it up scoring.
2) Gettys/Doorson/Sa limit Delgado's impact, somehow (either Gettys holding more of his own than expected, or getting Delgado into foul trouble, somehow). If Delgado gets into foul trouble, and Gettys does NOT ... that helps RU a HUGE amount. Easier said than done, though.
3) Hitting at least 33% of RU's 3-point attempts. Since SHU seems very likely to get open 3's against RU (does not every RU opponent do this), RU will have to hit some 3's to limit how much SHU might outscore RU from 3-point range.
4) RU's bench out performing SHU's bench: This is the one clear area where RU might have a real advantage.
5) Freeman finishing around the basket, and outperforming Sanogo. If Sanogo holds his own against Freeman, that is a problem for RU.
6) Sanders having a great floor game ... and a good scoring game - in other words outplaying Jones.
7) Johnson playing under control offensively (no stupid outside shots), and making Carrington owrk on defense.
RU does not need ALL of those above items to be competitive. But they might need all of them to win. I would say the 1st 3 or 4 listed keys are the most important. Item #4 (RU's bench) might be able to offset a failure in Item #5 or #7.
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