Rutgers #19 in preseason Barttorvik rankings
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Pike gets a ton of respect having us at #5 on defense. No shot blocker for the 1st time in a long time.
Don't think 19th is crazy......I think for us to be #19 our O will need to be better than projected because i have a tough time seeing our D being that good.
I have been very wrong before being concerned by D though.
Don't think 19th is crazy......I think for us to be #19 our O will need to be better than projected because i have a tough time seeing our D being that good.
I have been very wrong before being concerned by D though.
Maybe. We start with ND, if we win we play the winner of Houston and Alabama. If we lose we play the loser. The third game is against a team from the other group.
Looks like the big ten has no top teams or clear favorite. No one in the top 15, then Purdue 16 followed by Illinois, Michigan State then RU... Good year for pike to have his most talented team...
Rutgers' known OOC opponents (or potential opponents, depending on Vegas results):
Houston #1
Alabama #8
Notre Dame #68
Seton Hall #90 (oof!)
Princeton #101
Columbia #198
St. Peter's #199
Monmouth #236
Wagner #247
Kennesaw St. #267
Houston #1
Alabama #8
Notre Dame #68
Seton Hall #90 (oof!)
Princeton #101
Columbia #198
St. Peter's #199
Monmouth #236
Wagner #247
Kennesaw St. #267
And in Vegas, from the other pod, one of:
Creighton #13
Texas A&M #21
San Diego St #76 (not Oregon)
FYI, though the Big Ten has no Top 15 teams, it DOES have FIFTEEN (15) of the Top 51, and all 18 teams in this pre-season Top 75. That is ridiculously balanced and strong from top to bottom, even if none are top m15.
Even so, these pre-season power rankings, computer or otherwise, are kind of useless ... even though I enjoy reading them. No one has ANY idea how good most of these teams will be. I mean look at how many portal transferred so many teams, including in the Big Ten have. It is nearly impossible to handicap how all those pieces, plus incoming freshmen, will fit together on any team. I mean RU has NINE (9) new players and only returns 3. We have absolutely zero idea what this season brings. Other Big Ten teams have the following number of portal transfers (not even including frosh, listed by the number of portal players:
10: USC
8: Washington
7: Minnesota, Nebraska
6: Michigan, UCLA
5: Illinois, Indiana, Maryland
4: Rutgers, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State
3: Wisconsin
2: Iowa, Michigan State, Northwestern
0: Purdue - I guess freshmen only (they lost at least 4 players, led by Edey, Gillis and a couple others)
How can anyone know anything about any of these teams? At least 11-13 (all those with 4 or more transfers - because of freshman also theoretically joining the teams) of the Big Ten Teams have completely replaced almost all their players from last season
Just saying.
I don’t think we’re going to lose as much as you think on D with Big O in there. The issue is, how many foul trouble free minutes per game can he give us and what will the drop off be at the 5 on D when someone else replaces him.
I think we will be middle of the pack vs other 15 B1G teams on defense and somewhere in the 50 range nationally.
5, 8, 64, 20, 8.....those are Rutgers defensive rankings for the last five years according to Barttorvik. I agree with you on lack of a shot blocker for the first time since we've been "good", but I'd still be a bit surprised if we fell as low as 50. Time will tell.
I have always thought Myles and Cliff were the backbone of our team the past 6-7 years. My perhaps overinflated importance could be tested next year.
Good post. Might be fun to guess at what will happen. But this season in the Big Ten is shaping up to be more of an unknown than in any prior season we've been in the conference. Although we're not the only team in this situation, our entire team will be starting this season will very little time to develop chemistry together.
Yeah, we have a couple HS superstars and that's very exciting. But Michael Jordan was drafted by the Bulls in 1984 and they didn't win a championship until 1991. It takes time to develop a team even when the team has some great players. In year one, Jordan won ROY but the team went 38 - 44.
I'm excited to see what we can do. But I wouldn't bet a penny on our season record at this point. Not until we get a few games into conference play. By then we'll start to have some idea of the realistic potential.
It was a limited sample but I didn’t notice a drop off on D last year with Big O in there. The drop off was with Wolf and that’s probably why he’s gone.
But he did win an NCAA championship as a freshman at UNC. 😀
That's an excellent point. I like that stat way better than the NBA one. 🙂
I think unlike all the other years with Myles and Cliff the data actually didn't have a dropoff with Cliff out on D in 2023-24. It was huge in previous years. Don't know where that data comes from but someone with the data has posted in the past.
My opinion is the long defensive minded wings: Eugene, Montez, Caleb, Mag, even Yeboah and Paul were the "backbone". That length and athleticism made that group pretty tough to get past on the dribble, they were all super at help defensive principles (even kids like Geo and Ron were really good at help side imo) and those wings were brutal to try to shoot over. Myles and Cliff certainly gave us the ability to play "up" on the ball as they both could clean up those defensive misses when opponents got penetration.
I like that we seem to be long again. I know we had really strong defensive metrics last season, but I never felt we were as tough to play against last season as were most of the teams from '19-'20 to '22-'23. We will see.
I don’t know what the overall team D stats say but opponents destroyed Wolf in the paint in iso all season. Ogbole didn’t play much but that wasn’t the case in the limited stretches where he did play. He committed some fouls but made opponent BIGs earn their points from the line. When he wasn’t called for a foul he was rock solid on D.
Can someone explain how Bart can even put a ranking out.
.based on what exactly
.based on what exactly
Yeah, I expected the D to drop off LY, it didn't happen. Until we see otherwise, I'll trust Pike will get the D playing his way. I think EO can man the middle OK if he can avoid fouls. If he can't, I get concerned.
I suppose history of program and recruit rankings. Needs to be taken with a HUGE grain of salt
We did get away with playing with length. I think that and shot blocking are huge.
In today’s game being even more 3 point heavy maybe the length is even more critical.
1. Defends the line better
2. Passing lanes means more TOs
3. Theoretically better rebounding
In today’s game being even more 3 point heavy maybe the length is even more critical.
1. Defends the line better
2. Passing lanes means more TOs
3. Theoretically better rebounding
Cliff wasn’t necessarily the best post-up defender either, but those are low % shots anyway. I think the most impactful difference is going to be on-ball perimeter defense.
Last year we almost funneled ball-handlers toward Cliff b/c he was such a prolific shot blocker. This year it’s imperative to contain dribble drives and prevent guys attacking the rim downhill — those are the really high eff. looks
We lose the elite shot blocker, but EO when he is in will be an intimidating presence protecting the rim
Pike + sooooo much length all over the roster and it's hard to imagine the defense not being good eventually
We went from minimal roster turnover to a ton and relying on some freshman for major minutes
There are legit arguments to make on both sides, but when it comes to Pike, you have to believe he will have it figured out eventually at least. Wouldn't be shocked if the defense looks much better towards the end of the season with some lapses early
Pike + sooooo much length all over the roster and it's hard to imagine the defense not being good eventually
We went from minimal roster turnover to a ton and relying on some freshman for major minutes
There are legit arguments to make on both sides, but when it comes to Pike, you have to believe he will have it figured out eventually at least. Wouldn't be shocked if the defense looks much better towards the end of the season with some lapses early
Can we take it with an itty bitty grain of salt instead?
I am pretty confident other than relying on EO as a shot blocking 5 (which scares me) Pike has the pieces to be a VERY good to elite defensive team. The big question (which I can guess the answer) is will he choose defense over offense.
Will we see a lot of Dercack (I think reports are he is a PLUS defender) and JaMike?
Pike has managed to get very close to maximum defensive value out of every RU player he’s coached based on each player’s baseline athletic potential (with Jaden Jones as the lone exception). It’s an exceptional track record and he’s done it with a variety of defensive strengths (we haven’t played the same style D each year - he adjusts to his talent).
This alone is a reason to be cautiously optimistic. If he can establish a culture early where D paves the way for highlight reel points in transition the other way he can achieve total buy in early on and the team could be special. Thats hardly a guarantee but the possibility is there. Not having an established rim protector won’t matter that much if we play a suffocating press style with traps on the perimeter that cause frequent turnovers. Even the D we played last year was successful because of the perimeter players and not as much about Cliff or the 5 spot in general. The issue was we couldn’t finish in transition to capitalize on turnovers.
One way to look at it: suppose we get a nice lead from our top 6 or 7 guys. Will we then get enough offense from our best defensive players to hold that lead while the other guys are resting?
That’s where I see JMike, Derkack, Dortch, and to some degree Ogbole. They will be counted on primarily to defend and rebound, while most of the scoring will come from the other 8 guys (not saying we’ll go 12 deep in every game).
Pike will figure it out, but it’s clear this year we’ll win with offense taking center stage. Will be exciting to watch. Can’t wait!
You are assuming he has to choose…. Suppose we can kick start the season with a style similar to the start of 2020-21. Incredible defense that paved the way for incredible offense. At the break of the new year, that team had broken 90 twice, 80 5 times and had broken 70 ppg in every game. The offense was made possible by the defense. The D was good enough last year - the issue was we couldn’t connect on bunnies.
Pike has a ton of options. If Dylan and Ace are offensive stars, does he want to surround them with the most offensive talent or rely on them for offensive and surround them more with the better defensive players?
I wouldn't be surprised to see a very deep rotation early and then more game plan / situation specific rotations and minutes in B1G play
I noticed Torvik projects JWill at 10.9 per and has Acuff at 9.3 or something. He had J playing 16% more minutes at a lower offensive rating than he gave TA.
Only mention cause of our other convo, not because I think these projections mean much. Only glanced quick at work, these were just top line #'s I noticed.
Torvik is computer based - aka meaningless pre-season as you say. Efficiency metrics are adjusted in some way for SOS but there’s really no accurate way to account for that as we all know. It’s a wait and see game. Efficiency also does not account for the types of shots players are taking as someone else pointed out (outside of whether they are 2s and 3s).
As I’ve already stated, my biggest concern with Acuff is ironically about the season EM had two years ago when he was surrounded with stud level talent (relative to the conference). His paper efficiency numbers were quite good - but what I’m trying to say is that’s not always the end all. It stands out as a massive red flag in this case because EM should, by all counts, have had a banner season in the MAC and instead won only 8 games in total. That’s not to say Acuff was the “reason” for the failure but it still represents a tested instance where his presence as a complement to several stand out players (relative to the talent in that conference) did not have a positive overall impact on a team. Of course he was more efficient being there were other guards that year prioritized by the defense to shut down. This is what I’ve been trying to explain to you - everyone would be more efficient if they weren’t in a position where most of their shots were taken trying to create for themselves. That’s why it’s apples and oranges comparing J Will’s efficiency with any of these others. Basically all of his shots were like this and not because he was a ball hog - it was what Pike wanted with limited other options.
I’m much more concerned about EM’s disastrous season with Acuff as a complementary player, than I am his weaker efficiency last year as the dominant go to player on an otherwise talentless 13 win team (remarkably 5 more wins than the prior year). He’s choosing to come to RU knowing we have a bunch of lottery picks who project as the clear go to options on offense so he must know his usage won’t be like last season. Last year’s output alone could translate to a Marcus Carr like transition (Minny to Texas). It’s the season before (despite better efficiency numbers that you seem keen to rely on as a core predictor) that casts major doubt for me on his ability to play a successful complementary role.
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All fair, and I really didn't pay too much attention to Eastern Michigan that year to know what their overall issues were. As you mention, it's not like that was a good team prior. 10 wins w Farrakhan as the man, 8 with Bates, 13 with Tyson. Maybe the issues were more with Bates lack of interest in defense or Farrakhan dropping from a 40% shooter from 3 to 24% that year and being a much worse player overall who got even worse when moving on to WVU. It's not like Acuff was the man at Dusquene, he was a role player. He's just a veteran whose role has grown as he's gotten older. Kind of opposite JWill, who has really had the same role since day one of college.
I agree efficiency rises when guys are set up into positions to succeed. My point with JWill is that his game IS him creating for himself, or others. I'm not convinced who is around him matters to his own point scoring game/efficiency. Obviously, talent around him, will open things up a bit, but he's not an off the ball movement guy. His numbers last year were a little better than what they had been despite the lack of talent around him, so that's good, he's progressing with age. I do think we'll see that continue this year. Remember, he was a 60 something % free throw shooter prior to last year too, so he improved greatly there.
I don't think, and have never said he's a ball hog. His usage was high, it's a fact, but I expect higher usage numbers for guys with ball in their hands. I just don't the fact you scored more than bad players means much.
