keep in mind they have almost no minutes allocated for a center. Unless Ace is playing center minutes need to come down for a few players
Rutgers #19 in preseason Barttorvik rankings
- Thread starter RutgHoops
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Yeah, it's pretty meaningless, but thought I did notice Sommerville in there. Didn't look to be expecting much from him.
If things go as I hope they will in terms of the style we play, J Will will be far more valuable than any of the others except possibly Jordan (he’s kind of a wild card for me having played so well, on a successful team, but in such a bad conference).
The bottom line is folks seem to have post traumatic stress syndrome about how unusually bad we were from 3 to the point where it’s being determined that being great at this attribute must be our top priority. The reality is, if we have a good season, it’s probably going to be because we execute our usual bread and butter D but now have elite players who are capable of doing magical things on offense to make teams pay for their mistakes / turnovers. In my view we need the best transition players possible to complement Dylan and Ace and I don’t mean simply athletic players who are going to try to take it themselves. I think J Will we fill this role marvelously. I don’t have confidence in Acuff as a transition facilitator or as a defender whose going to help us be special. Davis has the D part but his transition game was brutal last year - poor decision making across the board. As I said - Jordan could have potential.
We have Martini to hopefully do his part and hit kick out 3s. Hayes will be a role player. I don’t expect nearly as much half court slow down where we are kicking it to these guys to shoot 3s as some seem to predict. We took 610 threes last season and 588 the year before. I’d probably take the under on 600 next year TBH.
That is a very interesting take....don't know if I agree and i don't know if I disagree.
If Ace Jwill and Dylan get 90 of the 200 minutes you could be right. The one thing that has me concerned is Ace taking and missing too many 3s. I think I am scarred by waTCHING SOME OF THOSE EXHIBITION GAMES.
Actually - last year’s team ranked 352nd in 3 pt percentage and yet that was Pike’s only Rutgers team to EVER crack 600 attempts outside of the 2018-19 team (612 attempts).
Our best 3 point shooting team by percentage under Pike (2021-22) attempted 560 threes. The group from 2020-21 only attempted 505. Our most efficient offensive team overall under Pike, 2019-20, only attempted 554.
It’s not like Dylan and Ace are known to be these amazing 3 point shooters and they are the ones we want taking the bulk of the shots. I’d be very surprised if Pike is “fine” with Ace firing away a large volume of bricks from 3. It’s not the same thing as a kid like GG being green lighted to go out there and play through his issues to find his stroke which was literally known to be the one thing he’s good at (or supposed to be good at). Pike’s goal in coaching Dylan and Ace is mentor them to make decisions that best suit their games. I don’t see a strong reason to bet against him being able to do this successfully. Jaden Jones is the only evidence of failure in this regard. GG was simply a kid who was supposed to be a good shooter who did not shoot well last year. His issues had nothing to do with not buying in or not taking shots to suit his game. Folks saying he didn’t get high percentage looks are just wrong. He missed open shots - over and over - ones that scouting report said he was supposed to make - point blank.
I see JWill as more of a half court get to the basket at all cost guy as opposed to a get out and run/lead the break guy.
I don't think I disagree on the three point shooting. Martini is similar to JWill in that he only takes the shot when open, so he won't be putting up a big number. The freshman are a complete unknown. I think Dylan will try to get in the lane more often than not, Ace, I could see settling for force jumpers, but we'll see. Jordan is similar to JWill, but I'm guessing a little slower, but have no idea what to expect also.
Also agree on D still being the core of what we do.
Here’s the way I see it. J Will had one clunker game that mattered (he was terrible vs. Minnesota). He carried the team on his back in the first 4 games, could not miss in the second Michigan game (I think he was 100% from 2), and was by far our best player in the only other 2 games where we were actually competitive (second Wisconsin game and Nebraska). To me - how J Will, Davis, GG or anyone else performed in the other games (outside of maybe the first few minutes) is pretty meaningless as a predictive metric. We were down 15+ the bulk of those games and had clearly given up on any hope of winning. That one guy knocked down a meaningless 3 or someone else hoisted up a few desperation shots and missed just doesn’t say a whole lot about anything for the future. Games where 80% of the duration was about riding out garbage time - and trying to feed looks to GG
How you perform when things are going poorly matters. JWill was probably last years teams best player, he should look like it in most games. He did miss one two point shot in that second Michigan game, but I don't think he was our best player. Cliff was. JWill had more TO's than assists in addition to his 19 points. Cliff went 19 and 15. Again, being last years best player doesn't mean much to next year.
It may be me but I have a hard time reconciling "we are going to focus on transition offense and hopefully minimize half court offense" and "our defense will be our primary focus".
Is the expectation that we are scoring most of our points in transition?
Is HC Pike really want to try and run non-stop all game and likely end up giving the opposition more offensive possessions?
That seems in contrast to his general "slow the game down and limit possessions, work the clock" style.
Also, transition offense actually favors minimizing JWill, in my opinion.
We would want Harper or Ace as top options to take the ball and run.
It further minimizes the "JWill ball distribution and facilitator" role.
I'd rather have Acuff or Hayes our there as a kick out 3 option than JWill who wouldn't usually have the ball and is a likely a worse outside shooters.
Is the expectation that we are scoring most of our points in transition?
Is HC Pike really want to try and run non-stop all game and likely end up giving the opposition more offensive possessions?
That seems in contrast to his general "slow the game down and limit possessions, work the clock" style.
Also, transition offense actually favors minimizing JWill, in my opinion.
We would want Harper or Ace as top options to take the ball and run.
It further minimizes the "JWill ball distribution and facilitator" role.
I'd rather have Acuff or Hayes our there as a kick out 3 option than JWill who wouldn't usually have the ball and is a likely a worse outside shooters.
I just don't see HC Pike turning into HC D'Antoni and watching the "Seven Seconds or Less Suns" at the RAC next season.
We will run more and be more successful with more Harper/Ace and less JaMike/Simpson. But can't see it being nearly every possession - regardless of opponent miss or make.
Our half court offense, and optimizing the space and options for Harper/Ace, are likely to be a significant part of our success next year.
We will run more and be more successful with more Harper/Ace and less JaMike/Simpson. But can't see it being nearly every possession - regardless of opponent miss or make.
Our half court offense, and optimizing the space and options for Harper/Ace, are likely to be a significant part of our success next year.
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Your misunderstanding. It’s not that we’re not going to have a plan to generate halfcourt offense and simply “expect” to only score in transition. I’m saying that strong defense has always been a key driver of success and confidence on offense under Pike by generating easy baskets and RU has always been at its best with this is happening - sometimes despite a shortage of offensive talent. For the first time ever, we have a collection of kids who can take the concept of converting defense to offense to the next level entirely.
I’m not sure why you would look to move away from this concept in favor of a model where D matters a lot less and simply expect great halfcourt ball movement and pretty team offense from a collection of guys playing college ball against BIG team defenders for the first time (and many playing against any college defenders period for the first time ever). This isn’t AAU and folks are dilusional if they think we’re bringing in a roster that’s going to simply outgun established halfcourt BIG defenses consistently. This is highly unlikely.
This was my point when @PSAL_Hoops and I started the conversation. My thought was JWill's fit was not ideal next Dylan and that Acuff, if he defense is strong enough, is the better fit offensively.
None of our guards are really get out and run in transition guys. They get to the rim in the half court. We'll be banking on an increased effectiveness in the half court, any transition points will come off of defense.
I think we can score a lot off of defense if the players buy in to Pike’s philosophy. Thats where I think J Will will be a very good fit as a tool to help facilitate. He looked to pass in the fast breaks early last seaaon. It just proved too frustrating when the rest of our personnel could not execute bunny lay ups. I think Jordan could be an asset with this as well - I’m just not sure how his game will transfer to the next level. But it definitely matters in my book that he played two consecutive years for a winning program (albeit in a weak conference- but still. Merrimack won the division when he was a frosh and he led his team to 21 wins last season). I like this about Martini too. In contrast, outside of his frosh season during the Covid year where he didn’t play much, Acuff played for 6 win, 8 win and 13 win mid majors. He has no experience being a part of a successful program.
Also - I don’t know where you are getting that Dylan and Ace aren’t transition players. To me, that’s primarily where they shined most in the exhibitions.
For the Ace and Dylan part, the exhibitions aren't basketball, all they are are exercises in transition. Not really how they play. They both can play in transition, but Dylan isn't a gogogo guy. Ace was more comfortable in those games the less they looked like basketball, in fact he disappeared more in the games where defense was taken seriously. It's been said, adjusting to playing within a team scheme may be his toughest adjustment.
Playing within winning programs can mean something, I get that. I also think steady growth through out the career means something (really why I like college hoops, seeing the kids grow and develop-also why one and done guys don't over the moon excite me), and I do think, despite the teams performances, Acuff has shown the progression you'd like to see. Will it translate to this level? We'll see.
JWill is not what your sentence says he is. He has a very nice mid-range pull up game. And he absolutely likes to push the ball up in transition. Does he like to get to the rim? Yes. But his primary damage and effectiveness in the half court game was driving and pulling up for the 12-16 foot jump shot, and/or passing to open teammates on the perimeter (who then couldn't make their shots, FYI).
Also, JWill and Derkack are not really similar players, other than the "general" description of taller guards who are supposed to be good defenders and poor 3-point shooters. Derkack's game last season involved a much stronger emphasis of getting to the rim than did JWill's game. That is one difference - and we have no idea how that will play against Bug ten defenders who are much taller and more athletic than Merrimack's opposition. Also, Derkack did win Defensive Player of the Year in his conference, as just a sophomore ... to his great credit. But by his own admission he never played man to man defense, as Merrimack was essentially a 100% zone team. We know JWill is a very good man to man defender. Additionally, Derkack was a turnover machine - just a huge amount of turnovers per game ... while I saw a highlight video that showed his 3-point shooting, while not great, was over 30%, maybe even 33%, when he took open, catch and shoot 3's.
So ... the way I see it, JWill is actually more effective in a "lead" guard, with the ball in his hands, and as a 6'4" plus man to man defender, with a solid mid-range game. Derkack will be a willing defender (though how good in man to man remains to be seen - I trust Pike to teach him well), will push the ball in transition (he is athletic - and 6'6"), but better as a Wing Forward reserve, getting to the rim, and receiving kick-outs for shots from the Wing ... not a "lead" guard.
I will bet dollars to donuts that Derkack is the primary back-up at the "3" when Bailey rests, or when match-ups suggest Bailey to the "4". Acuff will be the 1st GUARD off the bench - and is NOT a PG at all, but an offensive spark off the bench for either JWill or Harper - or both. Can Acuff play on the court at times with both Harper and JWill? Yes. And Davis becomes the 2nd guard off the bench, for his ridiculously good defense and solid rebounding for his size - and his ability to push the ball up the court in transition ... While he does have to improve his decision-making, he IS the quickest and fastest RU guard with the ball in his hand in transition.
All very good points. Only add on is Davis will only be an asset in transition if he stops trying to take it himself Mathis style. With such a deep backcourt, that won’t fly.
Not sure how accurate this is so please check.
The leading team last year averaged 17 fast break ppg.
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/1285
I would say it's also delusional to assume we are going to score a majority of our points in transition.
Successful or not against Big Ten defenses - half court offense is not only needed but essential.
If we scored 20ppg off the fast break, then at least 50ppg (hopefully) will have to come from half court offense, ball movement and outside shooting.
I would love it if we turned into the old Suns and we run every rebound.
Every made basket - take it out and push it.
The leading team last year averaged 17 fast break ppg.
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/1285
I would say it's also delusional to assume we are going to score a majority of our points in transition.
Successful or not against Big Ten defenses - half court offense is not only needed but essential.
If we scored 20ppg off the fast break, then at least 50ppg (hopefully) will have to come from half court offense, ball movement and outside shooting.
I would love it if we turned into the old Suns and we run every rebound.
Every made basket - take it out and push it.
The classification of transition can be a bit murky for the purpose of statistics. The best way to describe what I’m trying to say is to simply rewind to the first 10 games of the 2021-22 season. I have no idea how many points we scored officially in the books off of turnovers in transition in those games, but that doesn’t much matter. All you had to do was watch and observe that what made us successful was the D that gave us easy opportunities to put up points and prevented those scoring droughts that often drag us down (don’t discount the importance of that by the way, either). The difference between 8 transition points in a game and 14 is 3 more instances potentially stopping the bleeding on a scoring drought. Before you dismiss that as nothing - consider that the impact of hitting one more 3 a game out of the 19 we took last year (6.5 instead of 5.5) - is 3 points a game. In terms of percentage and fancy efficiency numbers it boosts a team that shot 28% and change from 3 up to over 34% from long range which would have been a career record for Pike. Think one more made 3 a game would’ve helped us much? I say not.
Bottom line - I believe we have the personnel to be the early 2021-22 team on steroids if everything clicks culture wise. But also fear that if Pike pushes for that and is met with resistance we could also have a bumpy road.
I disagree a little with what you say here. JWill took 28.6% (3 shots) of his shots at the rim, with another 26.2% inside 10 feet. He took more 3's, than the less than 1.9 per game from the distance you mention, actually 10-15 feet. He happens to be most efficient when shooting from the distance you mention, but it's not the bulk of his game. He tries to get to the rim, he was in the upper 15th percentile in shots at the rim. He only shot 58% at the rim, which put him just in the top half of college players.
No one on the team was passing out to guys who made shots.
On Derkack, I'll take your word for it. I've never seen him play, just going by what I've heard and read. Looks to go to the hoop at all costs. Turnover prone. Yeah, I've read the defensive stuff on man to man too. Evan Miya killed JWill's defense in their #'s, and I thought he was clearly behind Simpson and JMike defensively, but yes, he's still good. He's mature and strong too. Derkack may play the three, but I'm not sure there are many times we'll want multiple guys that won't shoot from outside on the court at once, so we may not see JWill on the court at the same time anyway.
Also, have never said Acuff is a PG, just he's a better fit, if good enough defensively, next to Dylan, who IS a PG to me.
I looked up the 10 game part of the 20-21 team, which is what I think you meant as you mentioned them the other day as the group that came out scoring a bunch. In those 10 games, the team took 81 total shots in transition, led by 37 from JY, who was the only one to shoot below average, and Montez 17. It does look like they thrived in the paint or at the rim and then with three's, taking 185 of them in the ten games. The 8 transition shots per game is actually a pretty low number, I believe, but not sure. That also assumes everything I was looking at is correct.
As I said - I have no idea what the definition of transition is in what you are looking at but it doesn’t really matter. During that stretch, a big reason that team was elite was because it was able to turn opponents over and get easy shot opportunities whether that be kick out 3s or transition lay ups.
Another way of looking at it is to refer back to the efficiencies of the better press VA teams under Huggs. Jevon Carter’s senior season team earned a 3 seed. On paper, I bet their offensive efficiency wasn’t half bad but that team hardly entailed a collection of stand out shooters - defense can create offense successfully with the right personnel. Offense without defense breeds mediocrity.
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I just have to point out that you mentioned concerned about running a half court offense against Big Ten defenses but then keep referencing the OOC games in 2021 as a template to duplicate.
Also, we were 5-5 and loss to Lafayette, DePaul and UMass.
During those ten games to start 2021.
Obviously we will have better players across the board next season, but not sure that ten games is the best reference point.
Oh geez I must’ve typed the wrong year. I’m not talking about the team that lost to Lafayette. The team from the year before that one that was on the fast track to top 5 until the refs decided to take Myles out of the OSU game. The paper stats won’t necessarily show a ton of turnovers in those early wins but it was bread and butter defense that led the way - with the vast majority of our scoring happening from execution before the D had time to set up fully in the halfcourt (mostly off of missed baskets with a couple conversions from fast break turnovers mixed in). The former may not technically qualify as “transition” but it was still 100% a D first style/culture. I will caveat that Ron simply couldn’t miss from 3 against Illinois and obviously that was a big reason we won that game. But it was an exception - not the rule (see Maryland, Syracuse games, etc.)
Also - your twisting what I’m saying anyway in terms of “concerns” about halfcourt offense. I’m not saying we won’t be able to run halfcourt offense effectively. What I’m saying is that I think it’s unrealistic to expect us to be good enough at this attribute of the game for it to carry us and make us elite despite a significant drop off in D. Perhaps, your simply underestimating just how efficient we would have to be in halfcourt sets to sport a mediocre D and still feature an elite team? I’m not sure we’ve ever had a top 100 halfcourt offense. If our D isn’t good we’d have to be top 25ish to meet this mark. I personally just don’t see it because there’s an element of elite (I’m not talking about decent or above average - stand out is different from this) halfcourt offense that is typically very correlated with experience that we simply won’t have. It’s for these reasons that I believe PT will largely be driven once again by execution on the defensive end (I don’t expect to see a ton of minutes with Somerville, Acuff and Hayes on the floor together, for example). Maybe I’ll be proven wrong.
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Actually - it is worth noting that Pike ripped Jaden Jones out of the rotation following the losses to UMass and Lafayette due to his lack of effort on D. The team later reestablished its defense first culture and turned the season around.
Dylan and Ace aren’t Jaden. It’s a different situation as these 2 could’ve gone anywhere they wanted and collected huge pay checks. They are already on the fast track to being lottery picks and do not need to come in and put up flashy stats the way Jaden’s family hoped he would to land an express ticket to the NBA. In contrast, the only explanation for Dylan and Ace choosing RU over other places is because they bought into our brand (which is all about D) and believe a year in our system will help them succeed in the long run in the NBA. I find it hard to believe they chose RU with an expectation of transforming Pike’s style and culture into Iowa.
Dylan and Ace aren’t Jaden. It’s a different situation as these 2 could’ve gone anywhere they wanted and collected huge pay checks. They are already on the fast track to being lottery picks and do not need to come in and put up flashy stats the way Jaden’s family hoped he would to land an express ticket to the NBA. In contrast, the only explanation for Dylan and Ace choosing RU over other places is because they bought into our brand (which is all about D) and believe a year in our system will help them succeed in the long run in the NBA. I find it hard to believe they chose RU with an expectation of transforming Pike’s style and culture into Iowa.
I don't think many really disagree with you that this will still be a defense first team program.,
I think steals and long rebounds to ballhandlers (we have a lot of them) should result in us pushing the ball in transition and getting a high percentage primary or secondary fast break shot. That doesn’t mean most of our points will come that way. But I think it means MORE points will come that way, because we have more players with athleticism and transition talent. It’s just playing to our strengths.
I guess where I’m coming from is - it’s hard to say that in one breath but also expect PT to be dictated by who can best drain the 3 ball and/or whose net offensive efficiency has been historically superior. It’s contradictory.
Personally, I have always defined transition/fast break scoring as primary fast break scoring + secondary break scoring. All of that fast break offense and scoring occurs before the opposing D sets up their defense.
Secondary break scoring is taught and practiced as it can be lethal. Plus, good break scoring makes the opponent adjust to getting back on D more, and less on offensive rebounding.
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I’ll add one thing here though on D as a consideration for PT on a Pike team. It’s more about players needing to meet a certain minimum standard at their position to be able to execute the team schemes the way Pike wants than it is comparing two players individual D skills straight up. It’s unlikely, for example, that Davis beats J Will out because Pike thinks his D is better - J Will is not going to be the “weak link” in our D schemes where that swap would have an impact. To beat out J Will specifically, Davis therefore would have to add more value than him on the other end. As an example.
It’s the other guys whose D has been historically questionable - Hayes and Acuff. And Derkack is a wild card (as someone pointed out he’s never played man to man - huge adjustment there). Somerville scouting report says he struggles with D.
Folks may not like it, but there’s a non-zero possibility that the core rotation at the 1-2 early is J Will and Dylan with Davis getting most of the back up minutes including when J Will slides over to the 3 (whenever either Ace or Martini sit - or Martini slides over to the 5). Have to see what the new guys look like - but their ability to score won’t much matter if their D is garbage.
It’s the other guys whose D has been historically questionable - Hayes and Acuff. And Derkack is a wild card (as someone pointed out he’s never played man to man - huge adjustment there). Somerville scouting report says he struggles with D.
Folks may not like it, but there’s a non-zero possibility that the core rotation at the 1-2 early is J Will and Dylan with Davis getting most of the back up minutes including when J Will slides over to the 3 (whenever either Ace or Martini sit - or Martini slides over to the 5). Have to see what the new guys look like - but their ability to score won’t much matter if their D is garbage.
Yes - in terms of measuring it in the advance stats though - I’m not sure exactly how that works. Teams that have more explosive offensive weapons have the ability to push pace more on missed baskets. If you don’t play D though, you wind up with more inbounds possessions off of made baskets and not enough of those opportunities to outgun.
So ... reading the fun and active discussion ... I will throw out a wild card of my own, having no idea how this changes/influences offensive efficiencies: Offensive rebounding.
Ogbole remains raw, remains a large unknown, and I am not expecting huge things from him. That said ... in his very limited minutes last season, his OFFENSIVE rebounding was exceptional, truly elite, the best on the team by a wide margin. His overall rebounding per minute was very good (0.25 per minute), but his per minute offensive rebounding was elite (0.173 off reb per minute). And you cannot really teach the MINDSET to get offensive rebounds (though you can teach positioning and techniques).
So, here is the wild card: How much of Ogbole's flaws will Pikiell be willing to live with to get elite offensive rebounding on the floor? If Ogbole could maintain that per minute offensive rebounding rate, and play just 15 min per game, that means almost 3 offensive rebounds per game for Ogbole. What does THAT do for offensive efficiency, or offensive production, getting that many second chances?
I do not know. But if PSAL is closer to correct, that might mean more minutes for Ogbole than even I project, as his offensive rebounding abilities would mean more opportunities for the likes of Harper, Bailey et al to produce.
Ogbole remains raw, remains a large unknown, and I am not expecting huge things from him. That said ... in his very limited minutes last season, his OFFENSIVE rebounding was exceptional, truly elite, the best on the team by a wide margin. His overall rebounding per minute was very good (0.25 per minute), but his per minute offensive rebounding was elite (0.173 off reb per minute). And you cannot really teach the MINDSET to get offensive rebounds (though you can teach positioning and techniques).
So, here is the wild card: How much of Ogbole's flaws will Pikiell be willing to live with to get elite offensive rebounding on the floor? If Ogbole could maintain that per minute offensive rebounding rate, and play just 15 min per game, that means almost 3 offensive rebounds per game for Ogbole. What does THAT do for offensive efficiency, or offensive production, getting that many second chances?
I do not know. But if PSAL is closer to correct, that might mean more minutes for Ogbole than even I project, as his offensive rebounding abilities would mean more opportunities for the likes of Harper, Bailey et al to produce.
Unless Somerville’s D significantly exceeds projections based on the scouting reports, Ogbole’s playing time is going to be dictated, in my opinion, by his ability to stay out of foul trouble. Full stop.
I would love to be wrong in my projection of Somerville’s PT, but I see almost no chance that I’m wrong about the above. If Somerville plays, it’s because he made major strides on D this off season. I’ll be shocked if he’s what the scouting report says on D and still sees meaningful minutes for us. Let me caveat - Pike has made great defenders out of players who didn’t project to become what they did on D (Caleb for example). So it’s possible though I’m not sure how realistic it is for a frosh.
I hear you, and it's why I've said Acuff is a better match IF his defense is at least average. Not just for any 3 point ability, but also for proper spacing. But the defense side needs to be there.
As for efficiency, we have ZERO guys we can be sure will be highly efficient when scoring. Martini probably the only one, but he won't shoot a whole lot. Teams that depend on scoring two points at a time really don't do well nowadays. Maybe JWill gets back to his freshman year performance from three, takes another one or two a game and he solves all my worries. Id like that.
