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Rutgers finally breaks NET top 100

bac2therac said:
up to 94. The NET is the main tool used for NCAA seeding and at large consideration. RU's NET has been lagging behind much of the Big 10 this year due to the poor out of conference schedule ranked over 300 and the bad loss to Fordham. RU's over SOS is 65

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/conference/Big-Ten
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It's amazing how one loss can have so much more of an impact than 2 two wins over ranked teams especially with one of the games being a dominating win away from home. At what point does the wins over Ohio State, Minnesota Iowa, and Indiana start to have some weight behind them? These teams are likely to be playing postseason basketball.
This sh*t is starting to sound like my father's favorite saying, "People swallow elephants (OSU, Minn., IU., etc.) whole while choking on a gnat (Fordham)."
 
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Whether it sucks or not does not matter. Its what the committee will be leaning on. You cannot dismiss the non conference schedule...NET also factors in margin of victory. Having to go to overtime to beat Columbia hurts too
 
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bac2therac said:
Whether it sucks or not does not matter. Its what the committee will be leaning on. You cannot dismiss the non conference schedule...NET also factors in margin of victory. Having to go to overtime to beat Columbia hurts too
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Shouldn't the OSU win at home cancel the Columbia OT game? How about the B slapping of a ranked Iowa team at their place trump the Fordham loss at their place?
 
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bac2therac said:
Whether it sucks or not does not matter. Its what the committee will be leaning on. You cannot dismiss the non conference schedule...NET also factors in margin of victory. Having to go to overtime to beat Columbia hurts too
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Is every game treated equally—November games equal to February?
 
cubuffsdoug said:
It's amazing how one loss can have so much more of an impact than 2 two wins over ranked teams especially with one of the games being a dominating win away from home. At what point does the wins over Ohio State, Minnesota Iowa, and Indiana start to have some weight behind them? These teams are likely to be playing postseason basketball.
This sh*t is starting to sound like my father's favorite saying, "People swallow elephants (OSU, Minn., IU., etc.) whole while choking on a gnat (Fordham)."
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Rutgers has moved up about 40 spots the last few weeks
 
cubuffsdoug said:
Shouldn't the OSU win at home cancel the Columbia OT game? How about the B slapping of a ranked Iowa team at their place trump the Fordham loss at their place?
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It is factored in..dont get your point...Rutgers moved up like 10 spots..at the end of the day Rutgers is 14-14 not 18-10
 
bac2therac said:
It is factored in..dont get your point...Rutgers moved up like 10 spots..at the end of the day Rutgers is 14-14 not 18-10
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There are flaws in most ranking systems. It seems Rutgers was punished twice as hard for the Fordham loss. It seems Rutgers past carries more weight in these matters.
 
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Hypothetically, if RU beat Fordham by 8 instead of losing by 8, All else being completely equal what would our NET ranking be in that case?
How many NET points are affected by that one loss? Are we 50? 60?
 
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Yesterday's game was our only laugher of the year against a legit opponent. Margin of victory and SOS are what are holding us back in the NET. And our record, obviously.
 
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It is odd that the NET is so different than Kenpom. So the NET is more than a bit suspect. Trust Kenpom more than the NCAA and the NET as a barometer.

The only thing more unfair than the NET to the mid majors is the stupid quadrant wins.
 
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gmay8 said:
Hypothetically, if RU beat Fordham by 8 instead of losing by 8, All else being completely equal what would our NET ranking be in that case?
How many NET points are affected by that one loss? Are we 50? 60?
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Who knows...we would probably be at least 10 spots better...but agains ooc sos is still poor. I don't think we would be better than 75 taking a guess
 
G- RUnit said:
It is odd that the NET is so different than Kenpom. So the NET is more than a bit suspect. Trust Kenpom more than the NCAA and the NET as a barometer.
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Except the Ncaa is using the Net as its barometer so it is the most important of all ratings
 
An even better question is how both Net and KenPom have a 12-17 PSU in the 40's. According to both ranking systems PSU should be an 11 to 13 seed in the NCAA's.
 
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KenPom is a great tool to tell you how good a team is. I don't want it used as a tool to pick tournament teams, however. It's not a resume ranking.

Consider this scenario in which Team X and Team Y are both tournament lock level teams:

Team A beats Team X by 3 points and Team Y by 1 point.
Team B Beats Team X by 25 points but loses to Team Y by 1 point.

KenPom is going to give Team B way more credit, and in fact Team B may be the better overall team. But the entire point is to win games.

The tournament selection committee should ALWAYS go for "best resume" not necessarily "best team." What you actually did has to matter.
 
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I find it interesting that the mighty ACC has 5 teams with very poor NET rankings with all 5 over 100 and one team close to 200. So the rest of the conference is feasting on these teams. In contrast, the B1G does not have any team ranked lower than 100.
 
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The Fordham loss is severely overblown, it has little to no impact on anything.

What does have an impact is where these teams were projected to finish and it's taken 3 full months for RU to pass Miami on some metrics...a team that RU beat on the road.

The fact is RU wasn't highly thought of prior to ratings and it's reflected in the NET rankings even today.

Indiana, Illinois, Northwestern and Penn State are potentially all going to finish under..500 and all are still ahead of RU in Netrankings....it took until there are 2 regular season games left to pass teams RU has been better than.

The fact that does matter involves how drastic an underdog RU has been and is now since late January to early February, have started to shatter those numbers.

4 to 5 point underdog vs Ohio State, win by 3 or

8 point underdog to Nebraska....win by 7

6.5 point underdog at PSU, win by 4.....

Very slight underdog to Indiana, win by 8

Road underdog at Iowa by 8.5 to 9, win by 14...

Home favorites over Minnesota by 1.5, win by 4.

While PSU has had close losses, the NET rankings loved their preseason ratings and coming off a NIT tournament win.
 
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The NET ratings did not take into account pre-season projections at all. It's why when it was first released Loyola Marymount was in the top 10. It's a formula based on results from this season only.
 
kcg88 said:
The NET ratings did not take into account pre-season projections at all. It's why when it was first released Loyola Marymount was in the top 10. It's a formula based on results from this season only.
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Well it has to because there are teams in preseason rankings to start a season and there's a poll every week from Week 1. And there's every preseason rating system that picked RU last in the B1G....to say none of that factors into a system as flawed as it clearly is, shows that.
 
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So....what impact, if any, on a NiT selection...especially if we go 2-1 in the next three games? Assuming we can win the last two regular games....
 
Whether it’s flawed or not, as Bac points out its what the NCAA is using as a barometer and it is what it is. Would be nice though if there was a decay factor built into the model or a greater weighting on conference play
 
NewJerseyHawk said:
Well it has to because there are teams in preseason rankings to start a season and there's a poll every week from Week 1. And there's every preseason rating system that picked RU last in the B1G....to say none of that factors into a system as flawed as it clearly is, shows that.
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The NET doesn't care about the AP Top 25, KenPom, or any other rankings. It is a formula that takes into account current-season results only.

Ohio State was rated #1 in the first rankings because they had beaten Cincinnati on the road by 8, Creighton on the road by 9, and four other wins by an average of 29.5 points.

It's a math formula. Rutgers is low because, besides from the game yesterday, our wins over power teams came by an average of 4.5 points and our losses to power schools were by an average of 12.8 points.

Compare that to Penn State whose wins over power teams came by an average of 10.3 points and losses to power teams by an average of 7.1 points. That's why they're higher than us despite two fewer wins over power schools.
 
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Posted this in one of the other NET threads...

The margin of victory piece is what's changing the math for us, and kenpom and sagarin don't take that into account. NET factors in margin of victory up to 10 points... so a 10 point victory weighs a little more than an an 8, an 8 more than a 4, etc... but a 25 pt loss doesn't weigh more than a 10 pt loss.

We have 5 wins of 10+ points, over teams ranked 41, 154, 218, 233, 334. That's zero 10+ point victories over top 150 teams before last night (and only 1 over a Top 200 team), and the Iowa win moved us up 10 places in the NET rankings on its own.

We have 8 losses of 10+ points, against teams ranked 8, 8, 11, 27, 43, 56, and 58. We also have an 8 point loss to 241 Fordham, which is nearly as bad a loss margin as they take into account, over a really poorly ranked team.

Our average conference win has been by 6 points, and our average loss has been by 12.
 
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bac2therac said:
Whether it sucks or not does not matter. Its what the committee will be leaning on. You cannot dismiss the non conference schedule...NET also factors in margin of victory. Having to go to overtime to beat Columbia hurts too
Click to expand...

Oh, I know the committee will use the NET. But that doesn’t hurt us this year because the NCAA’s are out of reach unless we are B1G tournament champs, is that correct?

If so, then the NET matters to us next year and Pike can put together the proper kind of OOC schedule for us next year.

Does that sound right?
 
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Starring to think IF we get to 17-15 by winning the next three ...thar will be enough to get us to about 75 in the net rankings and possibly sneak into the NIT
 
Just taking a look at our quadrant record vs. current NET rankings:

Quad 1: 2-8 (1 game left @Indiana)
Quad 2: 6-3 (1 game left vs. PSU)
Quad 3: 1-1
Quad 4: 5-1 (loss to Fordham)
 
aren't humans still making the ultimate decision some act like it's merely a computer choosing
 
NewJerseyHawk said:
Well it has to because there are teams in preseason rankings to start a season and there's a poll every week from Week 1. And there's every preseason rating system that picked RU last in the B1G....to say none of that factors into a system as flawed as it clearly is, shows that.
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Maybe the Sagarun does this...the NET does not
 
ru66 said:
aren't humans still making the ultimate decision some act like it's merely a computer choosing
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Yes but their choices are leaning heavily on the NET. They dont just pick by overall NET. Penn State has no chance but schools like Seton Hall with sagging NETs have shots
 
Scarlet83 said:
Oh, I know the committee will use the NET. But that doesn’t hurt us this year because the NCAA’s are out of reach unless we are B1G tournament champs, is that correct?

If so, then the NET matters to us next year and Pike can put together the proper kind of OOC schedule for us next year.

Does that sound right?
Click to expand...


Yes..just have tighten the OOC a bit...less 300 plus schools. A Quad 1 opportunity game..i know sched may depend on who we get in ACC challenge. Not a help if we get Wake or Ga Tech
 
bac2therac said:
Yes..just have tighten the OOC a bit...less 300 plus schools. A Quad 1 opportunity game..i know sched may depend on who we get in ACC challenge. Not a help if we get Wake or Ga Tech
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Well, we only had Maine this year that ended up being 300+... but we need to cut down on the 220+ schools, too. Nothing really to gain by beating them, a lot to lose by losing to them.

These are our OOC opponents' current NET rankings:

58 - SJU
63 - @SHU
93 - @Miami
154 - EMU
195 - Columbia
218 - FDU
225 - Boston U
233 - Drexel
241 - @Fordham
334 - Maine
 
RUChoppin said:
Well, we only had Maine this year that ended up being 300+... but we need to cut down on the 220+ schools, too. Nothing really to gain by beating them, a lot to lose by losing to them.

These are our OOC opponents' current NET rankings:

58 - SJU
63 - @SHU
93 - @Miami
154 - EMU
195 - Columbia
218 - FDU
225 - Boston U
233 - Drexel
241 - @Fordham
334 - Maine
Click to expand...


Here is something interesting...Columbia is 195...but before the win over Yale last night they were 235.. a 40 pt gain in one night
 
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