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Rutgers vs Michigan

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SCNJ

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Oct 12, 2019
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Couldn’t find a good spot for this so I’ll just start a Michigan thread. Do we have a chance this week?

Likely wins:
Aguilar (potential pin/tech)
Rivera

Toss ups:
Alvarez (tough ask vs Micic)
MVB
Kannaird
Janzer (beat Embree in TB1 last year)

Likely losses:
Donner
Grello
Poz
Collucci (pin potential)

I think we’re going to be giving up 18-20 points in those 4 tough matches alone. We will probably need to win the other 6 matches to have a shot. If Alvarez loses to Micic, our chance at a team win probably goes with him. We would need a pin from Aguilar, win the remaining 3 toss up matches, bonus points from Rivera, and the 4 heavy underdogs to stay off their back.

I think Michigan wins 24-15. Prove me wrong Rutgers.
 
Don’t disagree with your analysis. The Sammy vs Micic match has my total attention. I think that’s probably a Michigan lean as opposed to tossup, but curious what kind of jump Sammy has made since last year. Also curious to see how Poz stakes up. What a way to begin your career!
 
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I don’t think Micic is a good matchup for Alvarez. Any time there’s anything close to a scramble, Micic will do that awkward shin slide and force a potentially dangerous call.
 
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SCNJ said:
Couldn’t find a good spot for this so I’ll just start a Michigan thread. Do we have a chance this week?

Likely wins:
Aguilar (potential pin/tech)
Rivera

Toss ups:
Alvarez (tough ask vs Micic)
MVB
Kannaird
Janzer (beat Embree in TB1 last year)

Likely losses:
Donner
Grello
Poz
Collucci (pin potential)

I think we’re going to be giving up 18-20 points in those 4 tough matches alone. We will probably need to win the other 6 matches to have a shot. If Alvarez loses to Micic, our chance at a team win probably goes with him. We would need a pin from Aguilar, win the remaining 3 toss up matches, bonus points from Rivera, and the 4 heavy underdogs to stay off their back.

I think Michigan wins 24-15. Prove me wrong Rutgers.
Click to expand...


Not sure how you have Alguilar as a pin or tech. He lost to Jack Medley last year and the word out of Michigan is that Dylan Ragusin beat him out for the spot. Whoever, they put out is a toss-up.
If Michigan brings their projected starters, going to be hard to win more than 2 matches.
 
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SCNJ said:
I don’t think Micic is a good matchup for Alvarez. Any time there’s anything close to a scramble, Micic will do that awkward shin slide and force a potentially dangerous call.
Click to expand...
How he doesn't get hit with stalling more frequently I have no clue.
 
ScarletGrapfan said:
Not sure how you have Alguilar as a pin or tech. He lost to Jack Medley last year and the word out of Michigan is that Dylan Ragusin beat him out for the spot. Whoever, they put out is a toss-up.
If Michigan brings their projected starters, going to be hard to win more than 2 matches.
Click to expand...

I agree and Michigan will be favored in this bout in my opinion. Probably a standard decision victory.
 
Potential match-up breakdown:

RU Heavy Favorites:
141: #1 Rivera vs. Mattin

Toss Ups:
197: #14 Janzer vs. #15 Embree

Toss Ups to Mich Leans:
125: #19 Aguilar vs. NR/#14 Ragusin/Medley
133: Alvarez vs. #3 Micic (Sammy isn't ranked on Flo since they have Suriano #1 at 133)

Mich Heavy Favorites:
174: #22 Grello vs. #2 Massa
184: Poz vs. #1 Amine
285: Colucci vs. #2 Parris
149: MVB vs. #8 Storr
157: Kanniard vs. #11 Lewan
165: Donner vs. #16 Amine

Comments:

- As Grapfan mentioned, even though Medley is the incumbent at 125, most believe that Ragusin will be the starter and he has been absolutely on fire this off-season on the freestyle circuit. He was a finalist at the 2020 Senior Nationals, won the 2020 Junior Nationals, and is a multiple time Fargo champ. We'll see how that freestyle success translates to college but he is a very good wrestler who is seemingly at the top of his game right now. Hopefully Aguilar is ready to go and stays aggressive.

- Seabass is 2-0 vs Mattin all time but they were only by decision, so a dominating performance would be nice.

- Janzer and Embree should be the best match of the night, followed hopefully by Sammy vs. Micic.

- I hope to see Kanniard, MVB, and Donner keep it competitive as all of their opponents are very good but they aren't (or haven't been yet) next level elite\dominant like Parris, M Amine, or Massa.

- Big opportunities for Grello and Poz to see if they can hang with the top dogs in the country, but boy does Poz has his work cut out for him over the next few weeks. He will potentially see #1 Amine (Mich), #5 Brooks (PSU), #9 Jordan (tOSU), #16 Lyon (Purdue), #15 Webster (Minn), #6 Venz (Nebraska), #21 Malczewski (MSU).. welcome to the B1G.

- I don't think Colucci has much of a chance against Parris, hopefully he can avoid an early fall and go the distance. I think that would be a moral victory for sure.
 
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Lots of lineup questions here:

125- Aguilar vs Medley/Ragusin
-Aguilar a year stronger and bigger. If vs Medley, I go slight lean Aguilar regardless of last year’s results. If Ragusin, have to go advantage UM. Hopefully get to see Shawver in an exhibition.
133- Alvarez vs. Micic/Ragusin
-I don’t count Alvarez out against anyone in Folkstyle. If it’s Alvarez vs Micic and Alvarez can create scrambles off of Micic’s offense it could be interesting. Also, with probably very little recent training from Micic on bottom, for Alvarez to win he has to ride out Micic and tire him out. If I’m Alvarez and it’s scoreless/close after 1st period, I’m taking top in the second period wearing Micic down and then winning the scrambles in the 3rd when Micic is tired. Ragusin is also excellent on his feet but I bet a lot smaller than Sammy. For either UM wrestler the key to beating Sammy is winning in neutral with deep attacks and quick finishes.
141- Rivera vs Drew or Cole Martin
-Big advantage Rivera. May start out slow but should win comfortably. Depending on Micic’s weight would be interesting to see an exhibition between he and Rivera.
149- MVB vs Kane’s Storr
-Solid advantage Storr here. If MVB’s weight is good, he has shown he can compete with high caliber guys especially from neutral. Very stingy. Has to stay off bottom and not wrestle sloppy on top. If he can go big with a throw, he has a puncher’s chance.
157- Kanniard vs Lewan
-Solid advantage Lewan here. Lewan is not super dynamic/a prolific scorer but good in all three positions. Not sure how much improvements Kanniard has made on bottom.
165- Donner vs Cam Amine?
-Lots of options for UM here. Dinner can go with anyone on his feet. Pretty good from bottom as well. Key is can he win the close bouts. Would love to see him take one here.
174- Grello vs Massa
- Massa wins comfortably. Not enough offense from Grello. Want to see Turley get an exhibition match here.
184- Poz vs Embree?
-Not sure who UM puts out here. Better for RU if Amine stays down and Embree goes up but probably not happening. Good test for Poz vs Embree. Embree is solid everywhere and athletic. Poz has a shot to win the takedown game here and could wear out Embree who has a tough cut to make weight. UM has a bunch of 184/197 options so would like to see some exhibition matches here as well.
197- Janzer vs Amine?
-Amine is really tough. Probably a two takedown win. Janzer beats Embree.
285- Colluci vs Parris
-Just try to avoid the fall. I think Parris pins here.

Have a chance at 125, 133, 141 (only strong favorite), 149, 165, 184 or 197 (depends on where Amine wrestles).
Winning four matches would be great. Score could be anywhere from 22-12 UM to a lot worse. Hope the young guys just wrestle hard and show improvement from last year.
 
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ScarletGrapfan said:
Not sure how you have Alguilar as a pin or tech. He lost to Jack Medley last year and the word out of Michigan is that Dylan Ragusin beat him out for the spot. Whoever, they put out is a toss-up.
If Michigan brings their projected starters, going to be hard to win more than 2 matches.
Click to expand...
Admittedly I don’t know much about Ragusin. Wrestlestat has Aguilar by pinfall.
 
SCNJ said:
Admittedly I don’t know much about Ragusin. Wrestlestat has Aguilar by pinfall.
Click to expand...
Yea, I actually looked on wrestlestat after I posted and saw that. I am guessing since he is a frosh with no data he gets no love from the wrestlestat algorithm.
 
Why am I pessimistic? I think from watching previous seasons. I heard Seabass mention several times in his video that focus is needed. Some of the predictions here are optimistic. I hope I'm wrong but history repeats.

I've been looking forward to seeing Poz compete; too bad his first opportunity is the #1 and then more top ranks to follow. I hope he hangs tough and surprises us with one or more of those matches.
 
Match just got a bit more interesting. It doesn’t appear that Myles Amine or Jelani Embree will wrestle. At 184 it will be a true freshman, Joseph Walker (Indiana State Champ, 3rd place Super 32 2019) not sure if he and Poz have ever wrestled but Poz should be favored here. 197 is often injured Andrew Davison (a top recruit and JR who has missed two seasons) or Junior JT Correl (Easton kid who wrestled at Blair and Wyoming Seminary). Janzer will be favored here as well. Looking at the dual now, should win 141, 184, 197. If we can win 2 matches out of 125, 133, 149 and 165, only give up bonus at HWT and then we bonus at 141 and possibly 197, this match becomes very close. 5-5 split with the difference being losing by fall at HWT. UM is ranked #2 and this match could be wild if we wrestle well. https://scarletknights.com/news/202...2021-season-friday-against-no-3-michigan.aspx
 
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FoxRU said:
Match just got a bit more interesting. It doesn’t appear that Myles Amine or Jelani Embree will wrestle. At 184 it will be a true freshman, Joseph Walker (Indiana State Champ, 3rd place Super 32 2019) not sure if he and Poz have ever wrestled but Poz should be favored here. 197 is often injured Andrew Davison (a top recruit and JR who has missed two seasons) or Junior JT Correl (Easton kid who wrestled at Blair and Wyoming Seminary). Janzer will be favored here as well. Looking at the dual now, should win 141, 184, 197. If we can win 2 matches out of 125, 133, 149 and 165, only give up bonus at HWT and then we bonus at 141 and possibly 197, this match becomes very close. 5-5 split with the difference being losing by fall at HWT. UM is ranked #2 and this match could be wild if we wrestle well. https://scarletknights.com/news/202...2021-season-friday-against-no-3-michigan.aspx
Click to expand...
Wow...if Colucci can avoid being pinned...we legit might be able to pull off the dual win.
 
FoxRU said:
Match just got a bit more interesting. It doesn’t appear that Myles Amine or Jelani Embree will wrestle. At 184 it will be a true freshman, Joseph Walker (Indiana State Champ, 3rd place Super 32 2019) not sure if he and Poz have ever wrestled but Poz should be favored here. 197 is often injured Andrew Davison (a top recruit and JR who has missed two seasons) or Junior JT Correl (Easton kid who wrestled at Blair and Wyoming Seminary). Janzer will be favored here as well. Looking at the dual now, should win 141, 184, 197. If we can win 2 matches out of 125, 133, 149 and 165, only give up bonus at HWT and then we bonus at 141 and possibly 197, this match becomes very close. 5-5 split with the difference being losing by fall at HWT. UM is ranked #2 and this match could be wild if we wrestle well. https://scarletknights.com/news/202...2021-season-friday-against-no-3-michigan.aspx
Click to expand...

Oh wow that changes a lot. 184 could be a 9 point swing if Poz can win that.

Pretty disappointed Embree not wrestling though. He and Janzer would have been a good match.
 
Wow, those changes on the UM side make it potentially a much more interesting match but we would still need a few upsets\breaks to go our way to actually win.
 
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MS-RU said:
Potential match-up breakdown:

RU Heavy Favorites:
141: #1 Rivera vs. Mattin

Toss Ups:
197: #14 Janzer vs. #15 Embree

Toss Ups to Mich Leans:
125: #19 Aguilar vs. NR/#14 Ragusin/Medley
133: Alvarez vs. #3 Micic (Sammy isn't ranked on Flo since they have Suriano #1 at 133)

Mich Heavy Favorites:
174: #22 Grello vs. #2 Massa
184: Poz vs. #1 Amine
285: Colucci vs. #2 Parris
149: MVB vs. #8 Storr
157: Kanniard vs. #11 Lewan
165: Donner vs. #16 Amine

Comments:

- As Grapfan mentioned, even though Medley is the incumbent at 125, most believe that Ragusin will be the starter and he has been absolutely on fire this off-season on the freestyle circuit. He was a finalist at the 2020 Senior Nationals, won the 2020 Junior Nationals, and is a multiple time Fargo champ. We'll see how that freestyle success translates to college but he is a very good wrestler who is seemingly at the top of his game right now. Hopefully Aguilar is ready to go and stays aggressive.

- Seabass is 2-0 vs Mattin all time but they were only by decision, so a dominating performance would be nice.

- Janzer and Embree should be the best match of the night, followed hopefully by Sammy vs. Micic.

- I hope to see Kanniard, MVB, and Donner keep it competitive as all of their opponents are very good but they aren't (or haven't been yet) next level elite\dominant like Parris, M Amine, or Massa.

- Big opportunities for Grello and Poz to see if they can hang with the top dogs in the country, but boy does Poz has his work cut out for him over the next few weeks. He will potentially see #1 Amine (Mich), #5 Brooks (PSU), #9 Jordan (tOSU), #16 Lyon (Purdue), #15 Webster (Minn), #6 Venz (Nebraska), #21 Malczewski (MSU).. welcome to the B1G.

- I don't think Colucci has much of a chance against Parris, hopefully he can avoid an early fall and go the distance. I think that would be a moral victory for sure.
Click to expand...
I love Alvarez as much as anyone and hope he wins, but I don't see that match as a toss up or slight UM lean. An Alvarez win would be enormous. Micic is in his 7th collegiate year (almost 25 years old), a 3x AA (4th in 2017, 2nd in 2018 and 3rd in 2019), beat Suriano, and has a ton of international experience. Alvarez needs to be on the attack and aggressively look to score on his feet early and often because Micic will just look to stall and pick a shot or 2 and draw potentially dangerous with his D.
 
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Leonard23 said:
I love Alvarez as much as anyone and hope he wins, but I don't see that match as a toss up or slight UM lean. An Alvarez win would be enormous. Micic is in his 7th collegiate year (almost 25 years old), a 3x AA (4th in 2017, 2nd in 2018 and 3rd in 2019), beat Suriano, and has a ton of international experience. Alvarez needs to be on the attack and aggressively look to score on his feet early and often because Micic will just look to stall and pick a shot or 2 and draw potentially dangerous with his D.
Click to expand...

I agree.

Instead of trying to create a ton of different categories/groups to fit each match perfectly, i just put it in there but it's definitely weighted towards the UM victory. IMO being in that group means to me while there is still a realistic shot Sammy could win, ultimately the expectation is that Micic will win but it should be a competitive match. If it's a completely one-sided, dominating performance by Micic I would argue Sammy under-performed his expectations.
 
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SCNJ said:
Pretty disappointed Embree not wrestling though. He and Janzer would have been a good match.
Click to expand...
Would have been a slug fest of who can out muscle who. First one to the lone takedown wins.
 
MS-RU said:
Wow, those changes on the UM side make it potentially a much more interesting match but we would still need a few upsets\breaks to go our way to actually win.
Click to expand...
Just read it is also possible that Micic is out for the dual, in which case, Ragusin or a guy named Chris Kim wrestles. Ragusin vs. Alvarez would be interesting but Sammy would have the size advantage.
 
FoxRU said:
Just read it is also possible that Micic is out for the dual, in which case, Ragusin or a guy named Chris Kim wrestles. Ragusin vs. Alvarez would be interesting but Sammy would have the size advantage.
Click to expand...

Why am I getting the feeling a lot of the top wrestlers are going to sit out this year and only wrestle the 4 match minimum?

I hope the NCAA does something about the 0:01 injury default nonsense if it gets to that point
 
SCNJ said:
Why am I getting the feeling a lot of the top wrestlers are going to sit out this year and only wrestle the 4 match minimum?

I hope the NCAA does something about the 0:01 injury default nonsense if it gets to that point
Click to expand...
Hope Micic wrestles. Good test for Alvarez. Michigan still tough if he doesn’t. Medley at 125 and Ragusin at 133 or the reverse if Ragusin is the starter at 125. All matches crucial for post season.
 
SCNJ said:
Why am I getting the feeling a lot of the top wrestlers are going to sit out this year and only wrestle the 4 match minimum?

I hope the NCAA does something about the 0:01 injury default nonsense if it gets to that point
Click to expand...

Yeah, unfortunately Goody hinted at this during his press conference earlier in the week. He basically de-emphasized W/Ls for the duals (while backtracking a bit to save face saying they are important, yadda yadda) but given the shortened season window and the very small number of matches needed to qualify, this will more than likely be pretty common especially in the B1G.

Also similarly to Suriano, many of the elite guys have Olympic aspirations as well and since it's also an Olympic year again and everyone gets a free pass, there is no harm in having some wrestle the minimum to get qualified but then focus on their freestyle in the meanwhile.

It's going to be a wild/interesting season, but regardless what happens it will be super beneficial from a development standpoint for our younger guys.
 
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FoxRU said:
Hope Micic wrestles. Good test for Alvarez. Michigan still tough if he doesn’t. Medley at 125 and Ragusin at 133 or the reverse if Ragusin is the starter at 125. All matches crucial for post season.
Click to expand...
Ragusin/Medley 125 and Micic 133
 
koleszar said:
Great news, but where can watch is the question? I highly doubt BTN will be showing exhibition bouts.
Click to expand...
Correct the exhibitions will not be on the BTN. Ru vs Michigan is the standard 2 hour block on the Big Ten Network. When matches are streamed, maybe.
 
ScarletGrapfan said:
Correct the exhibitions will not be on the BTN. Ru vs Michigan is the standard 2 hour block on the Big Ten Network. When matches are streamed, maybe.
Click to expand...
Hopefully, the exhibitions count in the Pin Pool. We need all we can get. $$$$
 
Consider pledging more money this year since the schedule is shortened. I went from $20 per pin to $30 per pin. Come on guys follow me!
 
I want to know how Michigan suddenly rose to No. 2. Maybe it has to do with a de-emphasis on duals for many top programs this year, as several have mentioned.
 
RutgersRockies said:
I want to know how Michigan suddenly rose to No. 2. Maybe it has to do with a de-emphasis on duals for many top programs this year, as several have mentioned.
Click to expand...
Rankings are generally based on how many points the team is expected to score in the NCAA tournament. Michigan has 3 potential finalists and at least 5 AA’s.
 
Michigan has those 3 guys who all redshirted last year back in the lineup which explains things.
 
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