Texas and Oklahoma Delaying Entry Into SEC?

[JayDogSmooth]

I don't believe it's a majority and think that's just false rumors online. It takes 3/4 of members to expel another member. It doesn't make sense that it wouldn't also take a super majority to dissolve the conference.

I see it the same way I saw the B12. GORs have teeth and it's extremely difficult to get out of when there is still a long duration in them. Many people, journalists included, thought no way Texas/OU are staying that long and will get out in a year or 2 at most. I was thinking a year or 2 early at most, if that. It ended up being a year early and it still took a lot of negotiation, not just among the conference and the departing schools but the networks too. Just like the B12, 1-2 years early somewhere in the mid 2030s I can believe but not a decade plus out.

A more realistic outcome until then is some sort of uneven revenue sharing model. But even for that, I'd wonder if it would only come about if the schools with greater status agreed to stay longer than the mid 2030s. If they're going to leave anyway then what's the point of uneven revenue share for the smaller status schools. They're better off to just ride the horse until it drops then deal with the fallout in the mid 2030s. There's no benefit for doing an uneven revenue share if the higher status schools don't extend the GOR further than the mid 2030s.

The big boys need out as the $ discrepancy is growing bigger year by year

Rumors I’m hearing is B1G for fsu as the research $ dwarf tv contract and they Want to keep climbing academically

AAU is a big obstacle but new president McCoullagh specifically brought in to get them there

Football wise I’d much rather the SEC as the culture, proximity to other schools for road trips, fan bases, rivalries and traditions are unmatched

But beggars can’t be choosers. If B1G is the only option, you go there before the ink is dry

 

[rutgersguy1]

The big boys need out as the $ discrepancy is growing bigger year by year

Rumors I’m hearing is B1G for fsu as the research $ dwarf tv contract and they Want to keep climbing academically

AAU is a big obstacle but new president McCoullagh specifically brought in to get them there

Football wise I’d much rather the SEC as the culture, proximity to other schools for road trips, fan bases, rivalries and traditions are unmatched

But beggars can’t be choosers. If B1G is the only option, you go there before the ink is dry

Sure they want or "need" out but it doesn't mean they're going to get it. How many ADs have the resources of Texas and they still had to wait until almost the end of the GOR. These ACC schools that want out just have to grin and bear it for another decade. With playoff expansion and conference auto bids it's actually easier grin and bear it for the next decade. The opportunity to be a big fish in a smaller pond has its benefits if you can capitalize on that potential.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

Sure they want or "need" out but it doesn't mean they're going to get it. How many ADs have the resources of Texas and they still had to wait until almost the end of the GOR. These ACC schools that want out just have to grin and bear it for another decade. With playoff expansion and conference auto bids it's actually easier grin and bear it for the next decade. The opportunity to be a big fish in a smaller pond has its benefits if you can capitalize on that potential.

Again, that’s where Wel agree to disagree. Although the GOR appeers to be ironclad, there’s no way ESPN is going to let FSU and Clemson specifically, as well as North Carolina die on the vine.

additionally, the chances for revenue changes in the league are slim to none, and unequal revenue, although discussed will be minimal with at best

Furthermore, Texas, and Oklahoma, getting out the GOR early for the proof that, though difficult, it is not impossible, and a deal can, and ultimately will be struck,

the big boys of the ACC are entirely too valuable the landscape of college athletcs; WYNS, the GOR is actively being negotiated as we speak.

It may not be this year or next year, but Mark, my words, they will be out significantly before 2036.

Disney and ESPN are pulling the strings as well and will assist, just as Fox assisted with the Texas and Oklahoma early release.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

Grinning and bearing it for another decade, at a bare minimum, would put the ACC at a quarter of $1 billion in the hole versus the piers.

And that is at a bare minimum

there is no way they’re going to grin and Barrett, and there is no way that ESPN will make them grin and Barrett, as those properties are entirely too valuable.

ESPN and Disney are in it to make the most money, and make the most money. You cannot let Premier programs, take a shit and wither.

Hence they need to prop them up with assistance, so they will maximize revenue for them through ratings and other ventures.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Texas OU demonstrate nothing about getting out a decade early, only getting out shortly before the GOR is about to expire, which is something I thought was possible right from the start. Even that took some effort.

No one is dying on the vine either. Did Cincy die on the vine, no they made the playoffs pre-expansion. So has TCU. All with way less resources. It’s melodramatic to say these high status programs will die on the vine. If anything the potential is the same as before if not better with the expanded playoffs and auto bids. It’s up to them to take advantage of the opportunity. It’s more likely they would die on the vine competing against other higher status programs in the SEC or B10 and not measuring up. As I said being a big fish in small pond has its advantages if you capitalize on the opportunity.

For the same reason, I’d expect ESPN to be perfectly fine keeping things as is. They own the rights of these schools at economical price why would they up their own costs if they don’t need to do so. The schools aren’t dying. Disney is looking to cut costs and be smart with their budget, not spend like drunken sailors when there isn’t a reason.

Just like the B12, I’ll only believe it when I see it that they can get out of the GOR way early. I didn’t see it in the B12 and I don’t expect to see it in the ACC either.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

Texas OU demonstrate nothing about getting out a decade early, only getting out shortly before the GOR is about to expire, which is something I thought was possible right from the start. Even that took some effort.

No one is dying on the vine either. Did Cincy die on the vine, no they made the playoffs pre-expansion. So has TCU. All with way less resources. It’s melodramatic to say these high status programs will die on the vine. If anything the potential is the same as before if not better with the expanded playoffs and auto bids. It’s up to them to take advantage of the opportunity. It’s more likely they would die on the vine competing against other higher status programs in the SEC or B10 and not measuring up. As I said being a big fish in small pond has its advantages if you capitalize on the opportunity.

For the same reason, I’d expect ESPN to be perfectly fine keeping things as is. They own the rights of these schools at economical price why would they up their own costs if they don’t need to do so. The schools aren’t dying. Disney is looking to cut costs and be smart with their budget, not spend like drunken sailors when there isn’t a reason.

Just like the B12, I’ll only believe it when I see it that they can get out of the GOR way early. I didn’t see it in the B12 and I don’t expect to see it in the ACC either.

With all due respect to Cincy & TCU, they are not, nor will ever be, consistently relavent

TCU is at best third most popular in Texas, while Cincy, though admirable, will never make a dent in Buckeyes popularity

What they’ve both done the last 2 years js awesome - but they both got exposed big time when the lights came on

Money, talent, depth, physicality, 5 stars… all too much to overcome in a 2 game playoff. It’s a nice story, but I wouldn’t expect them to consistently replicate that success

From what I’m hearing, the pieces are in place for an ACC exit in 2-3 years. Fees are being negotiated and I expect a deal to get done in the not so distant future

The schools that are on the fringe (not going to sec / B1G) are Ville, Hokie, Pitt, GT & Wolfpack

Noles, Clemson, uva and unc are locks
Hard to imagine Duke getting left out

Wake, Cuse, and BC have no shot
Miami I’ve been hearing mixed signals on

On the outset they seem like a slam dunk given their past history - but when you start peeling back the onion… it’s not as black and white as it appears

 

[rutgersguy1]

With all due respect to Cincy & TCU, they are not, nor will ever be, consistently relavent

TCU is at best third most popular in Texas, while Cincy, though admirable, will never make a dent in Buckeyes popularity

What they’ve both done the last 2 years js awesome - but they both got exposed big time when the lights came on

Money, talent, depth, physicality, 5 stars… all too much to overcome in a 2 game playoff. It’s a nice story, but I wouldn’t expect them to consistently replicate that success

From what I’m hearing, the pieces are in place for an ACC exit in 2-3 years. Fees are being negotiated and I expect a deal to get done in the not so distant future

The schools that are on the fringe (not going to sec / B1G) are Ville, Hokie, Pitt, GT & Wolfpack

Noles, Clemson, uva and unc are locks
Hard to imagine Duke getting left out

Wake, Cuse, and BC have no shot
Miami I’ve been hearing mixed signals on

On the outset they seem like a slam dunk given their past history - but when you start peeling back the onion… it’s not as black and white as it appears

Point wasn't about TCU/Cincy being consistent or being like high status programs, the point is big accomplishments can be achieved while being in a small pond and this was with a 4 team playoff. Their status is the same or way better than it was. Schools with more resources than them like FSU/Clemson can even do better.

Clemson just paid Riley a big 2M contract to be OC and Dabo is one of the highest paid coaches. Does it seem like they're hurting for money? FSU just handed out Norvell another one of these crazy coaching contracts at 8M/yr off one really nice season. Does it seem like they're hurting for money? Miami has got their billionaire booster helping to fund NIL deals for Cristobal. Does it seem like they're hurting for money. They all have the potential to do just fine in the ACC and expanded playoffs with autobids and not die on any vine and move when the GOR is near completion if they choose to do so.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

Point wasn't about TCU/Cincy being consistent or being like high status programs, the point is big accomplishments can be achieved while being in a small pond and this was with a 4 team playoff. Their status is the same or way better than it was. Schools with more resources than them like FSU/Clemson can even do better.

Clemson just paid Riley a big 2M contract to be OC and Dabo is one of the highest paid coaches. Does it seem like they're hurting for money? FSU just handed out Norvell another one of these crazy coaching contracts at 8M/yr off one really nice season. Does it seem like they're hurting for money? Miami has got their billionaire booster helping to fund NIL deals for Cristobal. Does it seem like they're hurting for money. They all have the potential to do just fine in the ACC and expanded playoffs with autobids and not die on any vine and move when the GOR is near completion if they choose to do so.

Both are fine right now, but 13 more years at a minimum of 20-30 million per year less then SEC/ B1G is an insurmountable hole

Moreover, it bleeds to the other sports / facilities as well. SEC baseball stadiums are ridiculous, as are their FOF’s

Top schools moving forward will have great tv deals coupled with big time NIL programs

 

[50 yd line RR]

A few years ago Florida State played in the national championship game. Indiana won a whopping 4 games. Indiana made millions more than the Seminoles. Something has to change or the ACC Powers will fall by the wayside.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

A few years ago Florida State played in the national championship game. Indiana won a whopping 4 games. Indiana made millions more than the Seminoles. Something has to change or the ACC Powers will fall by the wayside.

Exactly
The ACC big boys will not survive in the current climate if things remained status quo
Money discrepancy too high

 

[Ridge 22]

GOR is a pretty big obstacle but as Texas and Oklahoma proves, it is not impossible

Bodes goes well for an early release for a few ACC schools, as the conference will likely dissolve in the next 2 to 3 years.

ESPN will have a big saying in this as they cable networks helped broker the deal with Oklahoma & Texas.

For what it’s worth, the ACC brass has been in meetings in Charlotte since Wednesday - will be an interesting few years for sure as the conference realignment puzzle is not over by a long shot

Texas and Oklahoma didn't prove anything related to GOR. All they showed is that if there is a short enough term remaining on any agreement,you can negotiate your way out. But in no means did they success in challenging the GOR and winning. They didn't even challenge the GOR at all. Next time someone challenges the GOR will still be the first

 

[JayDogSmooth]

Texas and Oklahoma didn't prove anything related to GOR. All they showed is that if there is a short enough term remaining on any agreement,you can negotiate your way out. But in no means did they success in challenging the GOR and winning. They didn't even challenge the GOR at all. Next time someone challenges the GOR will still be the first

For the people in the back, I’ll say it again

If you think FSU, Clemson & UNC are waiting until 2036 to get out of the ACC… I have a bridge to sell you

GOR is actively being negotiated out between those 3 (amongst other schools), Disney + ESPN

When, how much, and ultimately, at what cost, are what remains to be seen

Buckle up - it’s going to be a wild ride

 

[50 yd line RR]

Not for us. I couldn’t care less about the ACC they left us to die on the vine. Now the same Big East Schools that killed the conference are wondering when the music stops if they will have a seat.
Nothing left for us to do but upgrade our facilities ( academic and athletic), pay for top tier coaches, attract better players, and build our brand.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

Not for us. I couldn’t care less about the ACC they left us to die on the vine. Now the same Big East Schools that killed the conference are wondering when the music stops if they will have a seat.
Nothing left for us to do but upgrade our facilities ( academic and athletic), pay for top tier coaches, attract better players, and build our brand.

Monetary concerns aside, We’ve got our own issues

This past year was a complete abomination
Team was a disaster top to bottom

GS.2 hasn’t shown he learned from his mistakes from GS.1

NIL, though improving, lacks well begind the big boys

And recruiting… also sucks

It’s make or break for Greg this year. We have the potential to be a consistent 8/9 win team

The buck stops w him. Another year lije last year and I have to believe he’s out

 

[50 yd line RR]

Monetary concerns aside, We’ve got our own issues

This past year was a complete abomination
Team was a disaster top to bottom

GS.2 hasn’t shown he learned from his mistakes from GS.1

NIL, though improving, lacks well begind the big boys

And recruiting… also sucks

It’s make or break for Greg this year. We have the potential to be a consistent 8/9 win team

The buck stops w him. Another year lije last year and I have to believe he’s out

I think he is on the clock but I think he will get it done. Just my opinion.
To the admins credit he has been given all the tools he needs. In the event Greg 2.0 doesn't get it done, at least we will have the resources to hire another quality coach.

 

[RUTGERS95]

Monetary concerns aside, We’ve got our own issues

This past year was a complete abomination
Team was a disaster top to bottom

GS.2 hasn’t shown he learned from his mistakes from GS.1

NIL, though improving, lacks well begind the big boys

And recruiting… also sucks

It’s make or break for Greg this year. We have the potential to be a consistent 8/9 win team

The buck stops w him. Another year lije last year and I have to believe he’s out

agree but I expect we'll be looking for a new coach within 10 mos. There is absolutely zero reason to believe Greg will get it done based on what we've seen. Anyone saying otherwise is rubbing the lamp and making a wish, it's not grounded on anything we've seen. Greg has failed, failed miserably 2.0

 

[50 yd line RR]

I’m glad I don’t feel the way you do. The next 4-5 years would be miserable for me.
Because Schiano isn’t going anywhere.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

I think he is on the clock but I think he will get it done. Just my opinion.
To the admins credit he has been given all the tools he needs. In the event Greg 2.0 doesn't get it done, at least we will have the resources to hire another quality coach.

I hope he does
I like Greg, and am grateful for all he’s done
But gun to my head, I just don’t see it happening
The game has changed a lot
His style of coaching - not so much
WTBS, I’m rooting for him to succeed and prove me wrong

 

[Ridge 22]

For the people in the back, I’ll say it again

If you think FSU, Clemson & UNC are waiting until 2036 to get out of the ACC… I have a bridge to sell you

GOR is actively being negotiated out between those 3 (amongst other schools), Disney + ESPN

When, how much, and ultimately, at what cost, are what remains to be seen

Buckle up - it’s going to be a wild ride

I doubt they will stay until 2036 either. And maybe they are negotiating now. But again, all they would be doing is negotiating to get out for a huge fee, likely in the range of the GOR. That is different than challenging the GOR and winning. No one has yet to even consider taking that on in court. The conferences have zero self-interest or motivation to let a school leave early with a GOR in place. You may be able to leave a year or two early at the back end, but it will cost you

 

[JayDogSmooth]

I doubt they will stay until 2036 either. And maybe they are negotiating now. But again, all they would be doing is negotiating to get out for a huge fee, likely in the range of the GOR. That is different than challenging the GOR and winning. No one has yet to even consider taking that on in court. The conferences have zero self-interest or motivation to let a school leave early with a GOR in place. You may be able to leave a year or two early at the back end, but it will cost you

They’ll be out in the next 2-3 years - the $ gap is getting too big too quick

It’ll be a combination of help from Disney / espn, and spreading out the exit fees over a certain number of years (and likely continuing to challenge in court)

Espn / Disney really hold all the cards - it’s not in their best business interests to see their valueable properties fall by the wayside

As w most things in life, timing is everything. I’d like to see this happen tomorrow, but certain dominoes need to be in place first (UT / OU officially leaving before end of GOR expires) before anything else happens

 

[RUTGERS95]

I’m glad I don’t feel the way you do. The next 4-5 years would be miserable for me.
Because Schiano isn’t going anywhere.

That's terrible and pity you. That means you're ok failing

 

[Ridge 22]

They’ll be out in the next 2-3 years - the $ gap is getting too big too quick

i highly doubt it

 

[50 yd line RR]

That's terrible and pity you. That means you're ok failing

That’s not what it means at all. I believe he will get it done. That’s what that means!
I’m ok with failing? Not hardly!

 

[JayDogSmooth]

i highly doubt it

I don’t
Lot going on behind the scenes w espn & Disney w the attorneys etc
Will be interesting

 

[Ridge 22]

I don’t
Lot going on behind the scenes w espn & Disney w the attorneys etc
Will be interesting

What would he the ACC's motivation to let school's out early for anything less than the contractual obligation? Especially when it might mean the end themselves as a power conference.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

What would he the ACC's motivation to let school's out early for anything less than the contractual obligation? Especially when it might mean the end themselves as a power conference.

Zero motivation for the league
Lots of motivation for the schools to exit and ESPN / Disney to protect their big assets

 

[rutgersguy1]

Zero motivation for the league
Lots of motivation for the schools to exit and ESPN / Disney to protect their big assets

If you agree the ACC has no motivation I don't know how you think the schools can exit until you're closer to the end date in the mid 2030s. Like I said 1-2 years early, I can believe but 10-13 years early, I don't see it. The networks are only part of the equation, the conference is the other big part. What conference will agree to be left hanging for a decade plus. Moving on a year or 2 early with some benefits thrown their way, sure. But 10+ years out, I don't see enough realistic benefits thrown their way to make up for that long a duration.

I've posted this article from last summer here before and Swarbrick's comments in it. His timetable for upheaval is also 2030s like I've mentioned. He talks to the other ADs, I'm sure he's got inklings of what is happening and their feelings.

From the article:

Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick told Sports Illustrated that he believes the breakup of college sports at the NCAA Division I level is “inevitable,” and puts a potential target date on that seismic change as the mid-2030s. Swarbrick also said there are “so many” schools trying to leave their current conferences, but they’re handcuffed by existing contracts.

Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick says total Division I realignment is ‘inevitable’ - Sports Illustrated

Wholesale change is unavoidable in college athletics. The Fighting Irish athletic director thinks a total realignment of Division I is coming with it.

www.si.com

 

[rutgersguy1]

Kliavkoff was at the SMU basketball game “incognito” but he was found by the media in the arena with the SMU prez, AD and head of their BOG. They’re having trouble with their media deal if it’s not obvious considering it’s not been finalized yet.

Article is paywall but posting for the comments in the tweet.

View embedded media

Looks like a tv deal might finally be at the finish line for the PAC12. They may get stabilized for at least short while. It'll be interesting to see how much they rely on streaming and the duration of the deal.

 

[Ridge 22]

Zero motivation for the league
Lots of motivation for the schools to exit and ESPN / Disney to protect their big assets

You are arguing against yourself here. If the league has zero motivation, which i agree with, how the hell are the schools getting out early? Disney and ESPN are going to cover it all and keep the ACC whole? No chance, especially in this environment. Not to mention even if they did, the ACC would just be agreeing to its own death warrant early.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

You are arguing against yourself here. If the league has zero motivation, which i agree with, how the hell are the schools getting out early? Disney and ESPN are going to cover it all and keep the ACC whole? No chance, especially in this environment. Not to mention even if they did, the ACC would just be agreeing to its own death warrant early.

Of course theyre not going to cover it all. That’s why the lawyers are involved to help with the buyout, stretching it over a number of years to mitigate the cost to each member schools that leave

 

[JayDogSmooth]

If you agree the ACC has no motivation I don't know how you think the schools can exit until you're closer to the end date in the mid 2030s. Like I said 1-2 years early, I can believe but 10-13 years early, I don't see it. The networks are only part of the equation, the conference is the other big part. What conference will agree to be left hanging for a decade plus. Moving on a year or 2 early with some benefits thrown their way, sure. But 10+ years out, I don't see enough realistic benefits thrown their way to make up for that long a duration.

I've posted this article from last summer here before and Swarbrick's comments in it. His timetable for upheaval is also 2030s like I've mentioned. He talks to the other ADs, I'm sure he's got inklings of what is happening and their feelings.

From the article:

Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick told Sports Illustrated that he believes the breakup of college sports at the NCAA Division I level is “inevitable,” and puts a potential target date on that seismic change as the mid-2030s. Swarbrick also said there are “so many” schools trying to leave their current conferences, but they’re handcuffed by existing contracts.

Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick says total Division I realignment is ‘inevitable’ - Sports Illustrated

Wholesale change is unavoidable in college athletics. The Fighting Irish athletic director thinks a total realignment of Division I is coming with it.

www.si.com

Combination of attorneys spreading out buyout $, espn + Disney helping

Will be a tall task, but from what I’ve been told, it’s happening in the next few years

 

[Ridge 22]

Of course theyre not going to cover it all. That’s why the lawyers are involved to help with the buyout, stretching it over a number of years to mitigate the cost to each member schools that leave

You are honestly clueless. So the schools are going to leave all their media rights with the ACC thru 2036, but just work out a payment plan over the next 300 years to make good on it? And again, why would the ACC agree to that? This isnt a buyout we are taking about (although their is a buyout ON TOP OF THE GOR AS WELL to contend with). This is a loss of media rights. There is no stretching of payments where that becomes feasible for ANY school to do for anything beyond maybe a season or two.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

You are honestly clueless. So the schools are going to leave all their media rights with the ACC thru 2036, but just work out a payment plan over the next 300 years to make good on it? And again, why would the ACC agree to that? This isnt a buyout we are taking about (although there is a buyout ON TOP OF THE GOR AS WELL to contend with). This is a loss of media rights. There is no stretching of payments where that becomes feasible for ANY school to do for anything beyond maybe a season or two.

We can keep going back and forth or we can agree to disagree

What I’ve heard from those I explicitly trust are what I’ve shared

If I’m wrong, ill be here to eat crow

I just don’t see it though - the guys who I get my info from are generally spot on - hence me being comfortable putting it out there

 

[rutgersguy1]

Tangential realignment news. Didn’t listen to the pod but will take his word on the summary of it.

 

[koleszar]

Zero motivation for the league
Lots of motivation for the schools to exit and ESPN / Disney to protect their big assets

HUH? They own the ACC and SEC. Why would they want to pay more money for the same teams they already own to move to the SEC? They're getting these teams now for $30mil but in the SEC will have to pay more than $70 mil., your premise makes no sense.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

HUH? They own the ACC and SEC. Why would they want to pay more money for the same teams they already own to move to the SEC? They're getting these teams now for $30mil but in the SEC will have to pay more than $70 mil., your premise makes no sense.

It’s an investment.

Taking your major assets (FSU, Clemson & UNC) and essentially having them tank, falling 300 million (conservative estimates) behind their SEC & B1G peers isn’t good for business.

Bad football = bad ratings.
Bad ratings = less money.

Again, based off what I’ve been hearing, I expect movement in the next 2-3 years.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Looks like a tv deal might finally be at the finish line for the PAC12. They may get stabilized for at least short while. It'll be interesting to see how much they rely on streaming and the duration of the deal.

View embedded media

 

[rutgersguy1]

Looks like a tv deal might finally be at the finish line for the PAC12. They may get stabilized for at least short while. It'll be interesting to see how much they rely on streaming and the duration of the deal.

View embedded media

 

[RUTGERS95]

View embedded media

death knell

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

YE

The next time anybody tells you that the Grant of Rights doesn't matter...

ah.. the deal is that no network wants GOR to be deemed inconsequential as that could lead to all sorts of mayhem with what networks think of as purchased product.