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The Big Ten in Ten Years

Ten years from now,who is in the Big Ten ?

  • Texas

    Votes: 55 23.3%
  • Florida State

    Votes: 12 5.1%
  • North Carolina

    Votes: 83 35.2%
  • Virginia Tech

    Votes: 14 5.9%
  • Virginia

    Votes: 105 44.5%
  • Georgia Tech

    Votes: 25 10.6%
  • Notre Dame

    Votes: 94 39.8%
  • Connecticut

    Votes: 28 11.9%
  • Kansas

    Votes: 36 15.3%
  • Oklahoma

    Votes: 41 17.4%

  • Total voters
    236
Virginia and North Carolina would make a lot of sense, don't get me wrong, but I wouldn't be so quick to rule out Georgia Tech. TV has been and will continue to be the most important aspect of B1G expansion. And according to Nielsen figures as of September 2015 (most recent I could find), Atlanta is the 9th largest TV market in the country, and would give the conference a presence in five of the top 10 (NYC, Chicago, Philly, DC being the others). It would also open up a fertile recruiting territory; other than being a geographical outlier, the reasons for adding GT would be very similar to those for Rutgers and Maryland.

For comparison, Raleigh-Durham is the 25th largest market - a large reason why I paired UNC with GT in my forecast assuming Notre Dame simply won't budge. The largest TV market in Virginia, Norfolk-Portsmouth-Newport News, checks in at 42.

I get that Atlanta is a huge market and I'm far from an expert on that area but from what I've read it seems to me like Georgia Tech's presence there is maybe marginally better than BC's in Boston. I just don't think it's big enough to justify their addition unless you happen to get only one of UNC or Virginia and are just looking for an and-1 school. I think UNC and Virginia stick together if the ACC falls apart and I believe both schools are more desirable to the Big Ten than Georgia Tech would be. Could be wrong though.
The other thing to keep in mind with programs like Georgia Tech, and I've said this here before, is how many actual viewers to they bring? Look at the trends, look at what's happening at ESPN...in 6-10 years is having a local team in a big market going to get you the carriage at rates it has in the past? Or are you going to needs brands with fan bases that will buy an over the top BTN subscription?
 
I get that Atlanta is a huge market and I'm far from an expert on that area but from what I've read it seems to me like Georgia Tech's presence there is maybe marginally better than BC's in Boston. I just don't think it's big enough to justify their addition unless you happen to get only one of UNC or Virginia and are just looking for an and-1 school. I think UNC and Virginia stick together if the ACC falls apart and I believe both schools are more desirable to the Big Ten than Georgia Tech would be. Could be wrong though.

The thing with Georgia Tech and its place in the state versus UGA is irrelevant for television purposes, however. It would allow the BTN access to the state. I'm not trying to troll here, but do you think Rutgers was invited to the Big Ten because of a large fan base? No, it was invited because there are a lot of people, and thus televisions, in New Jersey. Hell, Philadelphia, while certainly a Penn State market, isn't exactly State College in terms of PSU fandom, but there are a hell of a lot of cable subscribers here paying for BTN.
 
The other thing to keep in mind with programs like Georgia Tech, and I've said this here before, is how many actual viewers to they bring? Look at the trends, look at what's happening at ESPN...in 6-10 years is having a local team in a big market going to get you the carriage at rates it has in the past? Or are you going to needs brands with fan bases that will buy an over the top BTN subscription?
Well BTN has become either a standard channel or at least standard part of sports packages with most of the major cable providers, so the more expansion it does into major television markets the more money it will be making, regardless of how many fans of the DMA actually exists.

Its like with Rutgers... while Rutgers is the #1 college football school in the NYC DMA (the #1 TV market in the country - its made up officially of NYC, LI, Southeastern NY State, Northern half of NJ which by itself would be top 10 without being part of NYC TV coverage, Northeastern Pennsylvania, eastern CT) and has the largest amount of fans in the DMA, is RU really THAT popular the way that Ohio State penetrates in Ohio? Not even close. However, Rutgers is far more valuable that OSU purely in terms of the Cable subscription coverage for BTN because MOST people in the NYC DMA subscribe to some sort of cable-satellite service, and MOST sports fans will get the sports packages, regardless of being B1G or Rutgers fans. That's basically what Georgia Tech would bring to the table - regardless of how many fans they have, or their success, they'd bring the #9 DMA in the country which = $$$ in everybody's pockets in the B1G.
 
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I don't understand why any Rutgers fan would want the Big Ten to expand. Its in our best interest to have the conference remain at 14

Agreed.

I get that some people are fixated with the 4 conferences with two 8 team pods, or whatever schematic they have in their heads, but it does not help us in any way.

These schemes seem to be most popular with folks that follow CFB as writers/TV talkers or mostly watch the sport on TV.

Doesn't do much for me the game attending fan.
 
The thing with Georgia Tech and its place in the state versus UGA is irrelevant for television purposes, however. It would allow the BTN access to the state. I'm not trying to troll here, but do you think Rutgers was invited to the Big Ten because of a large fan base? No, it was invited because there are a lot of people, and thus televisions, in New Jersey. Hell, Philadelphia, while certainly a Penn State market, isn't exactly State College in terms of PSU fandom, but there are a hell of a lot of cable subscribers here paying for BTN.

The BTN doesn't get on just because the Big Ten expands into an area. There has to be sufficient demand from the local people still. The cable companies aren't going to hand over money for the channel unless they stand to lose more money by not providing it than they are by providing it. If you were around for the introduction of the network and the fights with different providers when the conference expanded, you know how tough that can be. Even in Nebraska where everyone in the state is a Husker football fan, the cable companies balked at providing the network until the very last minute. Does Georgia Tech have that type of presence in Atlanta? From what I've read it sounds iffy.

As someone else pointed out, when you look into the future the size of various markets may become less relevant and the number of people willing to pay for specific content might drive figures in the future. Again, that's an area that Georgia Tech seems iffy to me. They are clearly behind Georgia in terms of following within their state. How far behind? I'm not in a good position to make that judgment.
 
I believe Notre Dame is the only school on the list that could get into the Big Ten without being AAU so I'm eliminating FSU, Virginia Tech, UCONN, and Oklahoma to start.

Notre Dame would sooner shut down the school than humble themselves to join a conference for football so throw them out.

Texas would be out on an island because they have no logical partner to come in with. They don't need the money and the Pac-12 would be their preferred option if money is not a factor.

Kansas is AAU but I'm not sure they have the football program or the new markets the Big Ten desires. I could only see them added as an and-1 type of school like if Texas or ND somehow decided to join and the Big Ten just needed another team to come in with them. Since I don't see Texas or ND as likely to join, I'm ruling out Kansas too.

Georgia Tech doesn't make sense to me. Another school that would be out on an island plus Big Ten expansion has always been about large flagship type schools that carry their state. GT isn't #1 in Georgia and I've heard some question if they even get you Atlanta.

That leaves Virginia and North Carolina. This is what we know about them. First, they are both AAU. Second, both are flagship schools in large states (both top 12 in population with good demographics in terms of growth). I think we can conclude that the Big Ten would take them. The question is, what needs to happen for them to want to leave for the Big Ten? I think the obvious trigger is that the ACC needs to become unstable. Neither of these schools will leave on their own to wreck the ACC but neither is going to stay on board a sinking ship either. If that happens, at least UNC will have its choice of SEC and Big Ten. I think their fans would largely prefer the SEC because they see themselves as a Southern school and I guess in 2016 that is still an important thing to them. The administration, however, will see the tangible benefits of the Big Ten beyond the athletic arena and probably prefer the Big Ten. Obviously, the administration will need to win that battle against the fans. I'm not sure if the SEC is interested in Virginia or not and Virginia may be a little too snobby to want to compete in the SEC. I think if UNC comes to the Big Ten, Virginia would come as well. I'm not sure what happens to Virginia if UNC goes SEC.

This, this and This. Great post, and I also think those two schools are the only ones that really make sense.
 
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Well BTN has become either a standard channel or at least standard part of sports packages with most of the major cable providers, so the more expansion it does into major television markets the more money it will be making, regardless of how many fans of the DMA actually exists.

Its like with Rutgers... while Rutgers is the #1 college football school in the NYC DMA (the #1 TV market in the country - its made up officially of NYC, LI, Southeastern NY State, Northern half of NJ which by itself would be top 10 without being part of NYC TV coverage, Northeastern Pennsylvania, eastern CT) and has the largest amount of fans in the DMA, is RU really THAT popular the way that Ohio State penetrates in Ohio? Not even close. However, Rutgers is far more valuable that OSU purely in terms of the Cable subscription coverage for BTN because MOST people in the NYC DMA subscribe to some sort of cable-satellite service, and MOST sports fans will get the sports packages, regardless of being B1G or Rutgers fans. That's basically what Georgia Tech would bring to the table - regardless of how many fans they have, or their success, they'd bring the #9 DMA in the country which = $$$ in everybody's pockets in the B1G.
First, the BTN isn't just magically added unless there's demand in the area for it.

Second, you missed my point. Yes, Rutgers and Maryland were added because of where they are and the TV sets in those markets. However, things have changed rapidly. ESPN has lost 7 million subscribers in two years. Is the BTN more of a "must have" for the casual or non-sports fan than ESPN? Maybe they'd be more tolerant of it because it doesn't cost as much, but as we trend towards skinny bundles and cord cutting, people aren't going to be paying for sports channels if they don't watch sports.

So, you in order to make money, you're going to need to either get people to buy the "Sports Package" from their cable provider, or you're going to have to get them to buy an over the top BTN subscription. In that future, what's going to sell more packages: Rutgers vs. Georgia Tech or Ohio State vs. Oklahoma?
 
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^ I don't think the cord cutting and skinny bundles are going to trump the average sports fan that is willing to pay an extra $5-10 a month to get the tier 1 extra sports channels especially since that sports package likely includes SEC Network, NFL Network, NBA Network, NFL Red Zone, NBC Sports Network, CBS Sports Network, ESPNU, FS1/2. Having the SECN already in place pretty much sets up a scenario where BTN can get in on the same package anyway. I don't have a doubt that BTN and the various cable companies would get an equitable deal done if the scenario of GT to the B1G ever happens. Its a big IF anyway.
 
If it's strictly about eyeballs and $$$ then Texas and Notre Dame have to be the end game for the Big Ten. AAU affiliation won't matter, contiguous states won't matter, rivalries won't matter.
 
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Virginia and North Carolina would make a lot of sense, don't get me wrong, but I wouldn't be so quick to rule out Georgia Tech. TV has been and will continue to be the most important aspect of B1G expansion. And according to Nielsen figures as of September 2015 (most recent I could find), Atlanta is the 9th largest TV market in the country, and would give the conference a presence in five of the top 10 (NYC, Chicago, Philly, DC being the others). It would also open up a fertile recruiting territory; other than being a geographical outlier, the reasons for adding GT would be very similar to those for Rutgers and Maryland.

For comparison, Raleigh-Durham is the 25th largest market - a large reason why I paired UNC with GT in my forecast assuming Notre Dame simply won't budge. The largest TV market in Virginia, Norfolk-Portsmouth-Newport News, checks in at 42.

Although I am not all that familiar with NC, my guess would be that NC would deliver the entire state as it is a popular flagship school. The state of NC is divided up into 5 different tv markets that are ranked, 22, 25, 46, 100 and 132. However, the total tv households combined for all of those markets = 3,437,550. If the state was ranked as a whole, it would be the #4 media market in the country right behind Chicago and in front of Philadelphia.

The Virginia market is harder to figure out because a good part of it seems to be in the DC market. Therefore, part of what UVA would add is already covered by MD bringing DC. However, I would estimate UVA would still bring another 1.8mm households, and act as a bridge to UNC so that the contiguous state thing can remain intact.
 
The desires of Texas and Notre Dame matter.

Of course. I'm saying that's what the Big Ten likely wants. They may choose not to do anything if it doesn't involve either of those schools. They don't HAVE to expand.
 
To get Texas, it'll start first and foremost with taking away Oklahoma from the B12. Texas likes to own it's own conference but not when they're money matchups (A&M, NU, OU) have all left the conference. Once Oklahoma is in, then you can push Texas into making a move to independence, B1G or PAC. My bet would be on the B1G in this scenario.

Getting ND is most likely not ever happening unless the P5/P4/NCAA create a set of (unfair) rules that exclude independents from ever having a fair chance to qualify for the championship tournament. On top of that, to convince ND to join, you'd basically have to make the ACC and B12 irrelevant by taking Texas, Oklahoma, FSU, UNC and Duke away from their respective conferences turning the B1G into ND's only good option left - the Big Twenty. Aka probably not ever happening.
 
Would love Kansas and Oklahoma. Would be nice additions to the West and OU football combined with KU basketball is a must get.

If it goes East I hope for Notre Dame and UVA. UNC/Duke/GT nope.
 
IMHO the Big Ten has absolutely no compelling reason to add teams at all. With tier 1 media rights revenue looking like it will at least quadruple with the two new rights deals why would the conference even consider adding teams?
 
From a provincial point of view, i'd like to see the status quo for as long as possible. Every year that goes by, Ru becomes more associated with b1G. FB gets stronger, BB gets stronger. Any teams from the east that are admitted (UConn, BC, UVA) has a negative effect on RU recruiting.

I'd rather have us be the only game in town from the Chesapeake (OK, MD will always be around there) to the Canadian border.
 
ND's TV deal with NBC expires in...wait for it...10 years.
If NBC is a player in the B1G negotiations it could make financial sense for them to nudge ND toward the B1G. The question is would $35-40mil be a gain or loss for ND?
I'd rather have UVa but think UNC would have the inside track.

ND is not joining a conference unless they absolutely have to. Only way that happens is if we end up worth four conferences and each Champion getting one of the four playoff spots. Don't see that happening anytime soon.


ND in 10 years will be left out in the cold as an independent without a "Conference Champ" game to boost their ranking to make it to the final 4. BTW go look at the great and powerful ND schedule every other game is a cake walk They only play at best 6 "semi elite" programs a year with Navy, Wake, Purdue BC, being their "Traditional rivals". They dropped Michigan as it does not fit their ACC schedule but Purdue does?
This type of schedule will always keep them out of the Championship race.
When they do join they will want the East and the West to stay the same and they will demand to be in the west as it will a much weaker division.
 
^ I don't think the cord cutting and skinny bundles are going to trump the average sports fan that is willing to pay an extra $5-10 a month to get the tier 1 extra sports channels especially since that sports package likely includes SEC Network, NFL Network, NBA Network, NFL Red Zone, NBC Sports Network, CBS Sports Network, ESPNU, FS1/2. Having the SECN already in place pretty much sets up a scenario where BTN can get in on the same package anyway. I don't have a doubt that BTN and the various cable companies would get an equitable deal done if the scenario of GT to the B1G ever happens. Its a big IF anyway.
There will still be people who do, of course. But is that number larger or smaller than the number who subscribe right now? It's smaller. And it doesn't get larger by adding a middling program like Georgia Tech because they don't bring anyone except Georgia Tech fans.
Houston has more TV sets and local recruits.
Houston is not going to get BTN on many providers and they add nothing to the tier 1 deal.
ND in 10 years will be left out in the cold as an independent without a "Conference Champ" game to boost their ranking to make it to the final 4. BTW go look at the great and powerful ND schedule every other game is a cake walk They only play at best 6 "semi elite" programs a year with Navy, Wake, Purdue BC, being their "Traditional rivals". They dropped Michigan as it does not fit their ACC schedule but Purdue does?
This type of schedule will always keep them out of the Championship race.
When they do join they will want the East and the West to stay the same and they will demand to be in the west as it will a much weaker division.
Notre Dame, should they ever join, will want to to be in the East. Notre Dame doesn't want to play games in Iowa and Wisconsin and Minnesota. They don't want 1-2 more games in Indiana every year. They want to play games on the East Coast. They may be located in Indiana, but I guarantee they see themselves as an East Coast program.
 
Notre Dame sees themselves as a National program. They guarantee themselves a west coast game each year by alternating the home and away with USC (away in 2016) and Stanford (home in 2016). The west coast game is played late in the season and the home game in October.

This year they are playing neutral site in San Antonio (Army) and Jacksonville (Navy) and the Meadowlands (Syracuse). I believe the Army game is considered a home game for ND the other 2 are away games.
 
ND in 10 years will be left out in the cold as an independent without a "Conference Champ" game to boost their ranking to make it to the final 4. BTW go look at the great and powerful ND schedule every other game is a cake walk They only play at best 6 "semi elite" programs a year with Navy, Wake, Purdue BC, being their "Traditional rivals". They dropped Michigan as it does not fit their ACC schedule but Purdue does?
This type of schedule will always keep them out of the Championship race.
When they do join they will want the East and the West to stay the same and they will demand to be in the west as it will a much weaker division.

Um. Purdue is not on their schedule until 2020. Didn't play last year either. It looks to me as if they are basically trying to rotate through a few Big Ten teams as I think they have a home-and-home scheduled with MSU, Purdue, and Ohio State on future schedules and may play Northwestern soon as well.
 
Notre Dame sees themselves as a National program. They guarantee themselves a west coast game each year by alternating the home and away with USC (away in 2016) and Stanford (home in 2016). The west coast game is played late in the season and the home game in October.

This year they are playing neutral site in San Antonio (Army) and Jacksonville (Navy) and the Meadowlands (Syracuse). I believe the Army game is considered a home game for ND the other 2 are away games.

Must be nice to schedule "away" games against opponents and at venues where you will have an overwhelming fan advantage. It basically leaves them 3 true road games to navigate. If they ever have a record worthy of consideration for the playoff, I hope they take this into account. Everyone in a conference plays at least 4 and many teams will hit the road once out of conference for 5 road games.
 
I too would like to stay as is but if there is expansion I think it comes at the cost of the ACC. I think Virginia is a logical add and brings a lot to the table. As somebody else mentioned, I think UNC sees themselves as a "southern" school and the way they "play" they are better suited for the SEC. One school not on the list and which will probably get me crushed is University of Pittsburgh. AAU school, good history in football and basketball. Geographically isn't expanding but would allow for a better balance between the B1G East and West. Take those two and put them in the east. Move MSU to the west. Rivalry weekend then is UM vs OSU, Penn State plays MSU (cross division), RU plays Maryland, Virginia plays Pitt, Indiana plays Purdue (cross division). It puts another major player in the west and replaces them with two middle of the road teams. Or if you really want to have fun, move Michigan to the west. Keep the same rivalry games and then the potential exists for a final weekend game with both UM and OSU undefeated and playing for each divisions title and potential brings other members closely looking at that game as a Michigan loss or an OSU loss would propel a different team into the title game. Just some thoughts.
 
The B1G will not be expanding anytime soon. There is nothing to be gained by adding members in the forseeable future. I don't understand why this board is obsessed with expansion why so many here seem to be favoring another expansion. There's a new thread on expansion nearly every week. RU has its work cut out for itself already competing against the likes of OSU, MSU, PSU, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nebraska, etc. Adding schools like Texas and Notre Dame would only add to our challenge of being competitive in the conference. I like the B1G the way it is now and hope there's no expansion in the future.
 
The B1G will not be expanding anytime soon. There is nothing to be gained by adding members in the forseeable future. I don't understand why this board is obsessed with expansion why so many here seem to be favoring another expansion. There's a new thread on expansion nearly every week. RU has its work cut out for itself already competing against the likes of OSU, MSU, PSU, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nebraska, etc. Adding schools like Texas and Notre Dame would only add to our challenge of being competitive in the conference. I like the B1G the way it is now and hope there's no expansion in the future.

We all like the B1G the way it is now and hope there's no expansion in the future. But what we like doesn't mean squat. If the B1G makes more money (per team) by expanding , they will.
 
I too would like to stay as is but if there is expansion I think it comes at the cost of the ACC. I think Virginia is a logical add and brings a lot to the table. As somebody else mentioned, I think UNC sees themselves as a "southern" school and the way they "play" they are better suited for the SEC. One school not on the list and which will probably get me crushed is University of Pittsburgh. AAU school, good history in football and basketball. Geographically isn't expanding but would allow for a better balance between the B1G East and West. Take those two and put them in the east. Move MSU to the west. Rivalry weekend then is UM vs OSU, Penn State plays MSU (cross division), RU plays Maryland, Virginia plays Pitt, Indiana plays Purdue (cross division). It puts another major player in the west and replaces them with two middle of the road teams. Or if you really want to have fun, move Michigan to the west. Keep the same rivalry games and then the potential exists for a final weekend game with both UM and OSU undefeated and playing for each divisions title and potential brings other members closely looking at that game as a Michigan loss or an OSU loss would propel a different team into the title game. Just some thoughts.
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hope it stays the way it is, eventually you are going to have one conference of 130 teams or whatever
 
I'd prefer things stay as is for a while to let the conference finish absorbing Nebraska, Maryland and frankly us. It also allows us to continue to progress towards Big Ten/P5 standards in athletics and athletic facilities. That being said, I'd predict that some combination of Oklahoma, Kansas, Virginia Tech and UConn will be in the Big Ten down the road.
 
Pitt brings nothing to the table. Literally nothing. They don't bring in new markets, they're not a brand that's going to make the tier 1 rights more valuable. They're football history is 30 years ago, since then they've been somewhere between mediocre and downright abysmal. Basketball has been okay, but they've never really won anything and haven't made a final four since 1941. Pitt only cuts the pie into more pieces, they do nothing to make it bigger.

And they already tried to put Michigan and Ohio State in different divisions. It's a terrible idea. No one wants the possibility for them to play back-to-back weeks.
 
Pitt brings nothing to the table. Literally nothing. They don't bring in new markets, they're not a brand that's going to make the tier 1 rights more valuable. They're football history is 30 years ago, since then they've been somewhere between mediocre and downright abysmal. Basketball has been okay, but they've never really won anything and haven't made a final four since 1941. Pitt only cuts the pie into more pieces, they do nothing to make it bigger.

And they already tried to put Michigan and Ohio State in different divisions. It's a terrible idea. No one wants the possibility for them to play back-to-back weeks.
Thanks for explaining. Makes sense.
 
While things could heat up - not sure what the 'triggering event" would be to kick things into motion.
Of all of the conferences, B1G seem to require the greatest "Oomph" to do something new - and one large element in the process would be the traditional desire to only look at AAU institutions ... and typically 'State Universities" ... so traditional "city" universities (even if they are now state aligned institutions) like Pitt/Cincy/Houston may have a bit tougher climb ... and really tough if they do not represent new markets.
 
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hope it stays the way it is, eventually you are going to have one conference of 130 teams or whatever
Well I vote for limiting it to 128 teams. That way there's a 7 round playoff. Higher ranked team gets the home game in rounds 1 through 5 and then the final 4 held at bowl sites. Perfect mathematical precision. Case closed.
 
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While things could heat up - not sure what the 'triggering event" would be to kick things into motion.
Of all of the conferences, B1G seem to require the greatest "Oomph" to do something new - and one large element in the process would be the traditional desire to only look at AAU institutions ... and typically 'State Universities" ... so traditional "city" universities (even if they are now state aligned institutions) like Pitt/Cincy/Houston may have a bit tougher climb ... and really tough if they do not represent new markets.
The triggering event will be when Oklahoma finally leaves for the B1G due to Texas' refusal to give up the LHN... its happening right now, since Texas is blocking a B12 network and expansion due to LHN. When Oklahoma is out of the B12, the conference will quickly start losing steam with Texas being the only marquee football school (TCU and Baylor are good in football, but not really giant following) and after losing their interconference rivalry with OU, will either negotiate something with the B1G or PAC, or go indy.
 
The other issue for them is the bowl cartel has allowed them to act as a single team conference for the purposes of bowl bids and revenue. If the cartel ever froze them out or said you have to join a real conference would the TV deal be enough to remain independent? If they remained outside of the bowl and championship club for how long would their TV attractiveness remain?

ND will get butts in the seats no matter where they play. There is no bowl that would even turn them down.
 
B1G East:

Indiana
Maryland
Michigan
Michigan State
Ohio State
Penn State
Purdue
Rutgers

B1G West:

Illinois
Iowa
Minnesota
Nebraska
Notre Dame
Northwestern
Oklahoma
Wisconsin
 
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