THE OFFICIAL 2021-2022 RUTGERS BASKETBALL SEASON PREDICTION THREAD

[Joey Bags]

November 10: LEHIGH W
November 13: MERRIMACK W
November 16: NEW JERSEY INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY W
November 18: at De Paul W
November 22: LAFAYETTE W
November 27: at Massachusetts L
November 30: CLEMSON W
December 3: at Illinois* L
December 9: PURDUE* W
December 12: at Seton Hall W
December 18: RIDER W
December 23: CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE W
December 29: MAINE W
January 4: MICHIGAN* L
January 8: NEBRASKA* W
January 11: at Penn State* L
January 15: at Maryland* L
January 19: IOWA* L
January 22: at Minnesota* L
January 25: MARYLAND* L
January 29: at Nebraska* W
February 1: at Northwestern* W
February 5: MICHIGAN STATE* L
February 9: OHIO STATE* L
February 12: at Wisconsin* L
February 16: ILLINOIS* L
February 20: at Purdue* L
February 23: at Michigan* L
February 26: WISCONSIN* L
March 2: at Indiana* W
March 6: PENN STATE* W

Big 10 tourney 1-1

16-15
OOC 10-1
B10 6-14

NIT Appearance

 

[sunsetregret]

17-14

1-1 BIG10 Conference Tournament
2-1 NIT

 

[dpwhite]

November 10: LEHIGH W
November 13: MERRIMACK W
November 16: NEW JERSEY INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY W
November 18: at De Paul W
November 22: LAFAYETTE W
November 27: at Massachusetts L
November 30: CLEMSON W
December 3: at Illinois* L
December 9: PURDUE* W
December 12: at Seton Hall W
December 18: RIDER W
December 23: CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE W
December 29: MAINE W
January 4: MICHIGAN* L
January 8: NEBRASKA* W
January 11: at Penn State* L
January 15: at Maryland* L
January 19: IOWA* L
January 22: at Minnesota* L
January 25: MARYLAND* L
January 29: at Nebraska* W
February 1: at Northwestern* W
February 5: MICHIGAN STATE* L
February 9: OHIO STATE* L
February 12: at Wisconsin* L
February 16: ILLINOIS* L
February 20: at Purdue* L
February 23: at Michigan* L
February 26: WISCONSIN* L
March 2: at Indiana* W
March 6: PENN STATE* W

Big 10 tourney 1-1

16-15
OOC 10-1
B10 6-14

NIT Appearance

If we are 16-15 we ain’t going to the NIT

 

[Joey Bags]

If we are 16-15 we ain’t going to the NIT

17-16 with a conference tourney win could get us. I’m very comservative compared to most here. I have no clue how our new players who struggled last year will adapt and perform this year. If geo and harper go into a slump at some point like they usually do I’m not sure where our points come from.

 

[dpwhite]

17-16 with a conference tourney win could get us. I’m very comservative compared to most here. I have no clue how our new players who struggled last year will adapt and perform this year. If geo and harper go into a slump at some point like they usually do I’m not sure where our points come from.

Not the way the NIT has changed. Probably going to need at least 18-19 wins to get there

 

[Plum Street]

All 10’s here !
10-1 out of conference
10-10. BIG
0-1 Conference tournament - would love to make a deep run here to the semis. But don’t predict it.

10 seed - We get in the tournament as a 10 seed again . Anything can happen then.

 

[needmorecowbell]

I quite frankly don’t have a clue as there are so many new pieces. Geo and Ron are coming off bad years. Our defensive core is gone. Is Cliff going to replace Myles? Is Jaden going to be a reliable scorer? Is Hyatt more than he was on LSU? Will there be a pleasant surprise?

My base case is basically what the number driven models like bartovik say.

8-3
8-12
1-1
17-16

I will put probability of NCAA at 20%
Probability of 6 or less B1G wins 25%

As I said I have little confidence in my or any prediction. The optimism I see on this board is irrational, but certainly possible.

The optimisim on the board is irrational but possible? That seems like you are setting yourself to be right if they are good or bad. After performing well in both scrimmages the board is optimistic which I would say is realistic given who they played. There are two camps... Camp 1 who thinks RU lost their best players and wont improve or even meet last years performance and Camp 2 who think the team coming back will gel much better than last year and will lean on experienced players to anther tourney run. The scrimmage reports seem to indicate the later.

 

[Plum Street]

The optimisim on the board is irrational but possible? That seems like you are setting yourself to be right if they are good or bad. After performing well in both scrimmages the board is optimistic which I would say is realistic given who they played. There are two camps... Camp 1 who thinks RU lost their best players and wont improve or even meet last years performance and Camp 2 who think the team coming back will gel much better than last year and will lean on experienced players to anther tourney run. The scrimmage reports seem to indicate the later.

Or camp 3…. The additions and the subtractions cancel out . And we are once again a bubble team heading into the final week of the season.

 

[fluoxetine]

The optimisim on the board is irrational but possible? That seems like you are setting yourself to be right if they are good or bad. After performing well in both scrimmages the board is optimistic which I would say is realistic given who they played. There are two camps... Camp 1 who thinks RU lost their best players and wont improve or even meet last years performance and Camp 2 who think the team coming back will gel much better than last year and will lean on experienced players to anther tourney run. The scrimmage reports seem to indicate the later.

The correct preseason prediction is a probability distribution. Its unfalsifiable.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

The optimisim on the board is irrational but possible? That seems like you are setting yourself to be right if they are good or bad.

Wisdom

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

The optimisim on the board is irrational but possible? That seems like you are setting yourself to be right if they are good or bad. After performing well in both scrimmages the board is optimistic which I would say is realistic given who they played. There are two camps... Camp 1 who thinks RU lost their best players and wont improve or even meet last years performance and Camp 2 who think the team coming back will gel much better than last year and will lean on experienced players to anther tourney run. The scrimmage reports seem to indicate the later.

I have chips in Camp 1, Camp 2 and Camp 3.

 

[needmorecowbell]

Or camp 3…. The additions and the subtractions cancel out . And we are once again a bubble team heading into the final week of the season.

That’s camp 2.

 

[fluoxetine]

I will now bless the board with the output of my terrible regression model that relies entirely on past performance and requires way too much Excel work to get running.

November 10: LEHIGH / Rutgers -20.5 (Rutgers 79, Lehigh 58) / 96%

November 13: MERRIMACK / Rutgers -18 (Rutgers 73, Merrimack 54) / 95%

November 16: NEW JERSEY INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY / Rutgers -18.5 (Rutgers 76, NJIT 58) / 95%

November 18: at De Paul / Rutgers -5.5 (Rutgers 70, DePaul 65) / 70%

November 22: LAFAYETTE / Rutgers -17 (Rutgers 80, Lafayette 62) / 94%

November 27: at Massachusetts / Rutgers -6 (Rutgers 73, Massachusetts 67) / 72%

November 30: CLEMSON / Rutgers -3.5 (Rutgers 64, Clemson 61) / 63%

December 3: at Illinois* / Illinois -7 (Illinois 73, Rutgers 66) / 24%

December 9: PURDUE* / pk (Purdue 67, Rutgers 66) / 49%

December 12: at Seton Hall / Seton Hall -1 (Seton Hall 68, Rutgers 67) / 46%

December 18: RIDER / Rutgers -19.5 (Rutgers 80, Rider 60) / 96%

December 23: CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE / Rutgers -24 (Rutgers 82, Central Conn 58) / 98%

December 29: MAINE / Rutgers -22.5 (Rutgers 72, Maine 50) / 97%

January 4: MICHIGAN* / Michigan -3.5 (Michigan 68, Rutgers 65) / 36%

January 8: NEBRASKA* / Rutgers -8 (Rutgers 73, Nebraska 65) / 79%

January 11: at Penn State* / Penn St -2 (Penn St 70, Rutgers 68) / 42%

January 15: at Maryland* / Maryland -3 (Maryland 67, Rutgers 64) / 38%

January 19: IOWA* / Iowa -2 (Iowa 74, Rutgers 72) / 43%

January 22: at Minnesota* / Minnesota -0.5 (Minnesota 69, Rutgers 68) / 47%

January 25: MARYLAND* / Rutgers -1.5 (Rutgers 67, Maryland 65) / 56%

January 29: at Nebraska* / Rutgers -3.5 (Rutgers 71, Nebraska 67) / 65%

February 1: at Northwestern* / Rutgers -1.5 (Rutgers 67, Northwestern 65) / 56%

February 5: MICHIGAN STATE* / Rutgers -2.5 (Rutgers 69, Michigan St 66) / 59%

February 9: OHIO STATE* / Ohio St -1 (Ohio St 69, Rutgers 68) / 47%

February 12: at Wisconsin* / Wisconsin -5 (Wisconsin 66, Rutgers 61) / 31%

February 16: ILLINOIS* / Illinois -2.5 (Illinois 71, Rutgers 68) / 39%

February 20: at Purdue* / Purdue -4.5 (Purdue 68, Rutgers 64) / 32%

February 23: at Michigan* / Michigan -8 (Michigan 70, Rutgers 63) / 22%

February 26: WISCONSIN* / Wisconsin -0.5 (Wisconsin 64, Rutgers 63) / 48%

March 2: at Indiana* / Indiana -2 (Indiana 67, Rutgers 65) / 42%

March 6: PENN STATE* / Rutgers -2.5 (Rutgers 70, Penn St 68) / 60%

Expected
OOC 9-2
Big Ten 9-11
Overall 18.5-12.5

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

You could have asked your computer to mine for Bitcoin and just use a 60/40 blend of ken and Bart

 

[GimmeSomeMore]

We will be at least a 4 point favorite at PSU in January - they are going to be bad
We will be at least a 7 point favorite at Minn - they are going to be really bad

I also think these numbers make it look like Maryland is a point or two different in quality from the above - more like 7 and 10 points. Terps are gonna be good

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

We will be at least a 4 point favorite at PSU in January - they are going to be bad
We will be at least a 7 point favorite at Minn - they are going to be really bad

I also think these numbers make it look like Maryland is a point or two different in quality from the above - more like 7 and 10 points. Terps are gonna be good

While I think there is a higher than normal chance PSU busts. I don't see RU as a favorite despite our success at PSU and the fact that on paper right now we are slightly better.

That doesnt mean I don't think we can/will win. Game is Jan 11 so it would be too early for any team to "give up on the season". You have a new coach and some returning players

Minnesota is a different story. How is Eric Curry still on their team? He was very good against us in a win a few years back. Looking at box score he had 11 points. Playing for RU was Nigel, Laurent, Diallo, Issa, and Eugene who couldnt dribble and wasnt "worthy" of a scholarship.

 

[RocktheRac]

Not concerned about game by game, but we go to the NCAA Tournament for the third year in a row. Thank you Coach Pike and New Jersey’s Team !!!

2 years. We did not go Covid year.

 

[RocktheRac]

 

[fluoxetine]

2 years. We did not go Covid year.

It's a lost cause.

 

[Scarlet Blind]

Not a huge fan of going game by game,
OOC 10-1
I think this year comes together and we win more than 19-20 and 20-21
B1G 13-7
B1GT 2-1
Reg season 25-9

 

[RU at the shore]

17 - 15 Regular Season
NIT Champs 21-15 overall

 

[Scarlet Shack]

Taking Into consideration that we play the top three preseason big ten teams Twice, Ohio state once, then Maryland twice....we play 9 of our 20
Big ten games against teams against the top 5 preseason big ten teams

Don’t Over look that and how potentially Battled tested we will be for March

We take care of business to start 6-0...and sneak in at #25 into the rankings

We best Clemson to get to 7-0

We split with Illinois and Purdue to get to 8-1

We continue our claim as the best in Jersey to climb to 9-1 and ranked 17

We take care of Holiday season business to get 1-1/12-1 and ranked 12 when the 3rd ranked and Undefeated Michigan wolverines come to town as the biggest game in Rutgers athletic center history ...and Rutgers emerges victorious and awaits a top ten ranking the following week...

The meat grinder of a schedule leads to lots of highs and lows ...and remember ...we play 9 games against the top 5 big ten games

We finish the big ten schedule at 13-7/24-7....ranked 13th in the nation...and tied for the 4th seed

We win 2 in the. Big ten tournament...to get to 26-8, losing on Sunday afternoon in the big ten final

We earn a 3 seed in the NCAA tournament in the east region ...take care of business in the first two rounds ...

Entering the Wells Fargo center in Philadelphia with a huge scarlet turnout in the last weekend of March, playing across the street from where the 75-76 undefeated team had their dream season ended by Wolverines., with a victory on Friday night in the sweet 16 to advanced to the elite 8...with all you could ask for ...a chance to play for a trip to New Orleans and the final four .....

 

[RUbytheshore]

November 10: LEHIGH W (1 - 0)
November 13: MERRIMACK W (2 - 0)
November 16: NEW JERSEY INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY W (3 - 0)
November 18: at De Paul W (4 - 0)
November 22: LAFAYETTE W (5 - 0)
November 27: at Massachusetts W (6-0)
November 30: CLEMSON .L (6 - 1)
December 3: at Illinois* L (6 - 1, 0 - 1)
December 9: PURDUE* W (6 - 1, 1 - 1)
December 12: at Seton Hall W (7 - 1, 1 - 1)
December 18: RIDER W (8 - 1, 1 - 1)
December 23: CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE W (9 - 1, 1 - 1)
December 29: MAINE W (10 - 1, 1 - 1)
January 4: MICHIGAN* L (10 - 1, 1 - 2)
January 8: NEBRASKA* W (10 - 1, 2 - 2)
January 11: at Penn State* W (10 - 1, 3 - 2)
January 15: at Maryland* L (10 - 1, 3 - 3)
January 19: IOWA* W (10 - 1, 4 - 3)
January 22: at Minnesota* L (10 - 1, 4 - 4)
January 25: MARYLAND* W (10 - 1, 5 - 4)
January 29: at Nebraska* W (10 - 1, 6 - 4)
February 1: at Northwestern* W (10 - 1, 7 - 4)
February 5: MICHIGAN STATE* W (10 - 1, 8 - 4)
February 9: OHIO STATE* W (10 - 1, 9 - 4)
February 12: at Wisconsin* L (10 - 1, 9 - 5)
February 16: ILLINOIS* L (10 - 1, 9 - 6)
February 20: at Purdue* L (10 - 1, 9 - 7)
February 23: at Michigan* L (10 - 1, 9 - 8)
February 26: WISCONSIN* W (10 - 1, 10 - 8)
March 2: at Indiana* L (10 -1, 10 - 9)
March 6: PENN STATE* W (10 - 1, 11 - 9)

March 9-14: BIG TEN TOURNAMENT

1 - W, 1 L (10 - 1, 12 - 10)

POST SEASON:

3 - W

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Ouch

 

[Scarlet Blind]

Not a huge fan of going game by game,
OOC 10-1
I think this year comes together and we win more than 19-20 and 20-21
B1G 13-7
B1GT 2-1
Reg season 25-9

Not so much hit my mark this year

 

[Degaz-RU]

Shockingly, nobody predicted losses to all three of DePaul, Lafayette, and UMass AND wins against Purdue, MSU, Illinois, OSU, Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan. (I did correctly predict the 12-8 conference record though).

What a topsy turvy year it has been. But with the double bye, we have a chance to win this conference tournament outright.