THE OFFICIAL RUTGERS-INDIANA PREDICTION THREAD
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
The really serious part of the schedule starts Thursday and Rutgers has a lot of catching up to get a NCAA bid.It starts by winning on the road.
Rutgers 78 Indiana 75
Rutgers 78 Indiana 75
Indiana is a mess. their good 7 foot big was suspended last game because picture of him in a bar after midnight circulated online when there was a day tip following day. and for some reason Woodson said he was hurt. Trey Galloway was playing blackjack at 2am with early game next day when they were in the Bahamas. Mgbako is real streaky and has become notorious for his allergies to Defense.
Think we can win. Would be huge to get back on track for the post season. One thing I’m pretty certain of, I think Harper will have a huge game. IU fans will be all over him and he’s the type of player that the bigger the moment the better he is. I think he’ll thrive off that atmosphere.
Few more points:
Ballo is 7-0, Reneau is 6-9, and Mbako is 6-9 (though more of a wing player). That's a LOT of size for us to defend. With IU being a poor outside shooting team (30.4% from 3-pt range), I wonder if Pike will mix in a zone defense to help contain the two bigs.
If not in a zone, Ogbole will guard Ballo obviously, and I assume you have Ace guard Reneau. So who then guards Mbako? My guess is JWill to start, perhaps Derkack off the bench. It's a size mismatch either way and will allow Mbako to shoot over them, so you risk Mbako getting comfortable and going off. The alternative is...
... Playing Ogbole (Ballo) and Sommerville (Reneau) together and have Ace guard Mbako. IS THIS THE GAME WE SEE MANNY AND LATHAN TOGETHER? If it's ever going to happen, this would be the game, as neither Ballo (0-0 on threes) nor Reneau (3-17 on threes) pose much of a perimeter threat, and we can then use Bailey's length to bother Mbako.
For bench/reserve time, I think we're going to need to see Martini (like it or not) play Reneau at times. That fits more of how Martini played last season at Princeton -- defending in the post.
The guards are an easier decision. You put JMike on 6-3 Myles Rice and Dylan on 6-5 Trey Galloway.
Ballo is 7-0, Reneau is 6-9, and Mbako is 6-9 (though more of a wing player). That's a LOT of size for us to defend. With IU being a poor outside shooting team (30.4% from 3-pt range), I wonder if Pike will mix in a zone defense to help contain the two bigs.
If not in a zone, Ogbole will guard Ballo obviously, and I assume you have Ace guard Reneau. So who then guards Mbako? My guess is JWill to start, perhaps Derkack off the bench. It's a size mismatch either way and will allow Mbako to shoot over them, so you risk Mbako getting comfortable and going off. The alternative is...
... Playing Ogbole (Ballo) and Sommerville (Reneau) together and have Ace guard Mbako. IS THIS THE GAME WE SEE MANNY AND LATHAN TOGETHER? If it's ever going to happen, this would be the game, as neither Ballo (0-0 on threes) nor Reneau (3-17 on threes) pose much of a perimeter threat, and we can then use Bailey's length to bother Mbako.
For bench/reserve time, I think we're going to need to see Martini (like it or not) play Reneau at times. That fits more of how Martini played last season at Princeton -- defending in the post.
The guards are an easier decision. You put JMike on 6-3 Myles Rice and Dylan on 6-5 Trey Galloway.
Agree that Harper will continue his brother’s heroic tradition.
I think by season end this will be a Quad 1 game, as well as Purdue at home.
So Four Quad1 opportunities coming up..
Rutgers by 4. Harper with go ahead bucket, then we hit 2 FT after getting rebound on stop ..
I think by season end this will be a Quad 1 game, as well as Purdue at home.
So Four Quad1 opportunities coming up..
Rutgers by 4. Harper with go ahead bucket, then we hit 2 FT after getting rebound on stop ..
If both Harper and Bailey can come out of the gate on fire, we may be able to take this one. The early season woes are there to keep us out of the tourney and the only thing that can overcome it is winning a lot!
I think we win a very close game with real help coming from the supporting cast.
I think we win a very close game with real help coming from the supporting cast.
Love this post.
I've been pondering the match ups as well.
I believe you are correct: Davis on Rice. Rice is very good in many ways (49% FG, 31% 3-point, 89% FT ... 57% from 2 point range - gets a lot of driving lay-ups I think). If he has any holes in his game it is the following: a) not a lights out 3-point shooter - though a small sample size; and b) a poor assist to turnover ratio for a PG - 41 assists and 34 turnovers, just a 1.2 ass/TO ratio ... that is actually a very high turnover rate (0.094 turnovers per minute ... comparison: Harper is 0.065 TO/min, Williams is 0.072 TO/min, Derkack is 0.06 TO/min, Bailey is 0.072 TO/min, Davis is 0.028 TO/min ... even his teammate, Galloway, who also is nominally Indiana's co-PG, averages a relatively high 0.084 TO/min). So ... use Davis to pressure Rice without gambling (i.e. mainly try to keep him from driving, but Davis to use his quickness to reduce the passing angles for Rice.
Davis would have trouble covering Galloway (other than on switches), since Galloway would immediately post him up (at 6'5" Galloway does have a post up game on smaller guards).
I would not be surprised if Williams is on Galloway. Yes, I know Mgbako is the better scorer, but one way RU can help itself versus Indiana is to forces Indiana into turnovers. Indiana CAN be prone to turnovers (average 13 per game). Williams is a better pressure defender than is Harper - Harper is a solid setting the wall defender and cutting off passing angles defender. If Davis and Williams are putting defensive pressure on Galloway and Rice that has a lot of potential value (more difficult entry passes to the post players, more turnovers, etc.). And though Mgbako is a WF, a "3", I have seen him post up players smaller than himself - Williams is not terribly small, but he is only 6'4" to Mgbako's 6'9" - Harper might do better defending Mgbako's post up options (Harper is bigger, stronger and with a longer arm span than Williams) - and Harper is capable of contesting the 3-point line. Plus, someone will need to play help defense in the post - and you can't step away from Mgbako - though Galloway is also hitting 41% of his 3's - but many fewer 3's.
All spitballing here, of course.
The problem with Indiana is they are a very goo shooting team, generally: 49% from the field overall, 73% FT - but still only 31% from 3 ... so you probably have to pick a poison and chet off the 3-point shooters - but selectively, and double the post players.
One problem Ogbole has in post defense is he almost NEVER does anything other than play right behind the defender - but he is not an explosive enough leaper to block the shot of a guy his size or close by being only behind him. Yes, he can sometimes body up the post player to force him further from the basket, especially BEFORE the post player receives the ball. Post defense often requires playing 3/4 fronting to prevent the entry pass, or sometimes even fronting - but in any case mixing up the post defense looks. You cannot ONLY play behind Reneau (despite his 70% FG, Ballo is not nearly the offensive threat in the post as is Reneau) - he'll give you that little jump hook to death.
When Lathan comes in, will he force it up being double teamed by 7 footers or will he learn to pass? If he learns to find the open man, instead of forcing it up, it will be a game changer.
Hard to read into too much vs Columbia, but the rest of the team played team ball. Lathan took the shot whenever he got the ball, but that’s fine against a small team because that’s a good shot in that matchup. It will be a terrible shot vs IU. Will he play team ball on Thursday in Bloomington? One or two possessions will be the difference between a win and a loss.
Hard to read into too much vs Columbia, but the rest of the team played team ball. Lathan took the shot whenever he got the ball, but that’s fine against a small team because that’s a good shot in that matchup. It will be a terrible shot vs IU. Will he play team ball on Thursday in Bloomington? One or two possessions will be the difference between a win and a loss.
This team has shown no signs of being able to win a road game in a hostile environment (see Kinnesaw and OSU). Hope I’m wrong, but I say IU 78 - RU 70
Indiana has played in zero close games — all 13 of their contests have been decided by 9 points or more, win or lose.
Meanwhile Rutgers has been in 7 games that were decided by 5 points or less. Let’s see if that helps us maintain our composure in a tight finish.
Rutgers wins, 79-75.
Meanwhile Rutgers has been in 7 games that were decided by 5 points or less. Let’s see if that helps us maintain our composure in a tight finish.
Rutgers wins, 79-75.
Agree, but if he has a couple of turnovers in the attempt, we fans will have to be patient.
I honestly have no clue what the result of this game will be
Like the Ohio State game, the environment will be nasty
It did not seem to matter that OSU is not a strong team, having lost to Maryland and Auburn bigly. Yes, I know Auburn is number two right now, but the final score was
91-53, a real beating
I have my doubts that we are fully ready for the tough venues
It may come about in later games, but not just yet
RU loses by 12
It did not seem to matter that OSU is not a strong team, having lost to Maryland and Auburn bigly. Yes, I know Auburn is number two right now, but the final score was
91-53, a real beating
I have my doubts that we are fully ready for the tough venues
It may come about in later games, but not just yet
RU loses by 12
We're just a different team away from the RAC. Their crowd will be out for blood with the whole Harper trolling-on-his-visit thing.
Rutgers 71
Indiana 81
Rutgers 71
Indiana 81
The enviornnment was nowhere near "nasty" for the Ohio State game - it was a noon tip in a cavernous arena with several thousand empty seats but Rutgers just couldn't meet the moment.
And the atmosphere will be fine, it'll be good tonight in Bloomington but it's up to Rutgers. Indiana is not some great team and it's nowhere near a hot ticket. Get in price less than $10 and for about $30 you can sit in the lower level near midcourt tonight.
Let's not already offer built in excuses.
https://stubhub.com/indiana-hoosier...-tickets-1-2-2025/event/153518897/?quantity=2
Until we show any sort of consistency game to game, it's impossible to predict which team will show up to play. IU is not playing the best ball right now. I don't buy into the fact that "Rutgers owns Indiana" or any such nonsense. Roster turnover makes things like that obsolete.
All that being said, I do think Dylan will have an extra big chip on his shoulder for this one.
Rutgers 80
Indiana 76
All that being said, I do think Dylan will have an extra big chip on his shoulder for this one.
Rutgers 80
Indiana 76
Similar threads
