The Rutgers Defense

[BillyC80]

Today we held UMass to 15 points under their scoring average. In 5 of our 6 wins we’ve held our opponents under 59 points (39, 57, 57, 58, 57).

If we can hold Pitt to under 65 (their scoring average so far this year) at their place then I’ll be ready to say our D is legit.

 

[BillyC80]

And btw we held SFA to 30 points under their scoring average. Even if they had an off shooting night, that’s a significant difference, especially when they went out and scored 81 in regulation against #1 Duke on the road.

 

[JQRU91]

Our defense seems to like the number 57 and our next game is at Pitt. Heinz 57, anybody? :WideSmile:

 

[BillyC80]

I almost added that Heinz line myself. Well done JQ!

 

[JQRU91]

Thanks, Billy. I guess I couldn't resist and went and picked the low-hanging fruit.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Revisit in another 4 games. Our toughest opponent has been a bottom feeder in the A10

 

[Westcoast]

I think most would agree that St Bonny was not our toughest opponent. It was just our worst effort.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I think most would agree that St Bonny was not our toughest opponent. It was just our worst effort.

Who was?

 

[RUChoppin]

Who was?

Fair chance that SFA will end up higher than the Bonnies once last year's data shakes out of the model.

The Bonnies finished last year 105 and have dropped this season to 128, while SFA finished last season at 319 and has risen to 224 (and will rise further after their win today).

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Fair chance that SFA will end up higher than the Bonnies once last year's data shakes out of the model.

The Bonnies finished last year 105 and have dropped this season to 128, while SFA finished last season at 319 and has risen to 224 (and will rise further after their win today).

They are going to have to win a bunch in Southland conference.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

The win moved them from 242 to 224. Now they will trend higher as preseason expectations get fully replaced by real results

 

[RUChoppin]

The win moved them from 242 to 224. Now they will trend higher as preseason expectations get fully replaced by real results

Didn't realize today's results were already included. But yes, would need to win a bunch in Southland... but also win by more than the expected amount. If they keep exceeding expectations by double digits, they'll keep moving up in the formula.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I have to think the real spread is going to start deviating from what kenpom or Bart says.

I thought the even spread might have to do with a let down from the Duke win.

I’ll guess Alabama -14 on 12/6

 

[BillyC80]

The flaw in those ranking formulas is that a legit team can be stuck in the low 200s or high 100s and negatively affect the SOS of their opponents.

That legit team can get into the NCAAs and go deep into the tourney where they can prove their worth on the court, but by that time it’s too late for their opponents who may have been on the bubble and didn’t get in.

We’ll see how things shake out but so far SFA seems to be shining a light on that flaw.

 

[RU-ROCS]

D is not legit yet, but it’s getting there.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

The flaw in those ranking formulas is that a legit team can be stuck in the low 200s or high 100s and negatively affect the SOS of their opponents.

That legit team can get into the NCAAs and go deep into the tourney where they can prove their worth on the court, but by that time it’s too late for their opponents who may have been on the bubble and didn’t get in.

We’ll see how things shake out but so far SFA seems to be shining a light on that flaw.

In 2016 they finished 48th when they went undeafeated in conference. They also didn’t just win games, they blew people out.

It is pretty good in the end

http://www.barttorvik.com/team-history.php?team=Stephen+F.+Austin

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

wouldnt mind 4-5 games in for kenpom and bart to show ratings with and without preseason expectations.

I'd think pretty soon the #s will all be based on real stats

 

[BillyC80]

In 2016 they finished 48th when they went undeafeated in conference. They also didn’t just win games, they blew people out.

It is pretty good in the end

http://www.barttorvik.com/team-history.php?team=Stephen+F.+Austin

Thanks, this is helpful. In that 2016 season SFA was 7-5 OOC, including a 42point drubbing at #22 Baylor. So far this year we’re their only OOC loss and they beat #1 Duke on the road. So hopefully they will keep winning and if we’re on the bubble at the end of the season (I know, big if) then beating SFA will be at least a quad 2 win that will help us get a bid.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Not disagreeing, but bigger emphasis will be on teams we may beat that could be 2s to 1.

Like a PITT or WIS or Iowa or minny

 

[dkostus]

Not disagreeing, but bigger emphasis will be on teams we may beat that could be 2s to 1.

Like a PITT or WIS or Iowa or minny

Minny may not be quad 1

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Minny may not be quad 1

just saying I'd rather see Minny as a Q1 then SFA as a Q2....provided of course we beat MINNY

 

[blockm2]

So hopefully they will keep winning and if we’re on the bubble at the end of the season (I know, big if) then beating SFA will be at least a quad 2 win that will help us get a bid.

Torvik has a tool called "Teamcast" where you can go into each teams schedule and see what happens to their forecast with certain games being wins or losses. If you take SFA and have them win out including conference tourney to finish 32-1, it still projects them to finish worse than 100th in NET and be a Quad 3 win for Rutgers. There is almost no way to realistically think that game will be a Quad 2 game.

 

[zebnatto]

My concern is how we handle talented bigs . . . Their own offense, and the perimeter shots they’ll open up.

 

[BillyC80]

Torvik has a tool called "Teamcast" where you can go into each teams schedule and see what happens to their forecast with certain games being wins or losses. If you take SFA and have them win out including conference tourney to finish 32-1, it still projects them to finish worse than 100th in NET and be a Quad 3 win for Rutgers. There is almost no way to realistically think that game will be a Quad 2 game.

Thanks block. Jeez, even with a win on the road against the #1 team? That seems unfair.

 

[RUChoppin]

Torvik has a tool called "Teamcast" where you can go into each teams schedule and see what happens to their forecast with certain games being wins or losses. If you take SFA and have them win out including conference tourney to finish 32-1, it still projects them to finish worse than 100th in NET and be a Quad 3 win for Rutgers. There is almost no way to realistically think that game will be a Quad 2 game.

Does it allow you to put in margin of victory?

 

[blockm2]

Does it allow you to put in margin of victory?

no, however NET caps margin at 10 points so blowing people out by 30 or 40 regularly doesn't really help much

 

[blockm2]

Thanks block. Jeez, even with a win on the road against the #1 team? That seems unfair.

the thing is so much of your NET is based on your SOS and they just play in a terrible conference which weights it down

 

[BillyC80]

the thing is so much of your NET is based on your SOS and they just play in a terrible conference which weights it down

Hopefully they keep winning, get to #75 before selection Sunday, and become a Quad 2 win for us.

 

[blockm2]

Hopefully they keep winning, get to #75 before selection Sunday, and become a Quad 2 win for us.

might not be mathematically possible. Torviks calculator doesn’t even get them close to quad 2 winning out. A single upset win over Duke doesn't make that big of a dent in a season long resume.

 

[zebnatto]

Don’t think we’ve been challenged yet by a balanced half court offense: shooters plus strong interior game.

 

[goru7]

Don’t think we’ve been challenged yet by a balanced half court offense: shooters plus strong interior game.

You mean by like a top 5 team you are describing . Sure I agree we have not played that team yet, but for the first time in so long the other teams have to worry about all of our weapons. After the last few games and I am comfortable saying it , SFA and Umass were good wins, and I am seeing a little more progress and hopefully more inside out playing on offense and a team that coach described as not being very good on defense, which showed in the first few games, turn it up a notch and it looks like it will be a really good defensive team. That team will keep us in all games.

 

[RUBigFrank]

Pitt tomorrow is a true measuring stick. Our D is legit.

Forget this nonsense about SFA having an off shooting night - SFA relies on athleticism . A good D will always impact shooting %.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

After the last few games and I am comfortable saying it , SFA and Umass were good wins,

No fans of teams expecting to make NCAA tournament year after year would ever think that.

 

[blockm2]

No fans of teams expecting to make NCAA tournament year after year would ever think that.

while that is true, Rutgers is not yet at that point. For a program hoping to see the NIT they were reasonably good wins.

 

[zebnatto]

You mean by like a top 5 team you are describing . Sure I agree we have not played that team yet, but for the first time in so long the other teams have to worry about all of our weapons. After the last few games and I am comfortable saying it , SFA and Umass were good wins, and I am seeing a little more progress and hopefully more inside out playing on offense and a team that coach described as not being very good on defense, which showed in the first few games, turn it up a notch and it looks like it will be a really good defensive team. That team will keep us in all games.

Top 5? Really, just five who can hurt you inside or outside?

 

[goru7]

No fans of teams expecting to make NCAA tournament year after year would ever think that.

You know crap about SFA but I urge you to throw out their record last year and look at their record for the 5-6 years before last year. Because of last year , lost their best players and had injuries, , they started 280 in Kenpom. Just a couple of years ago they made their run to the Elite 8 where they lost to eventual runner up Texas Tech. Underwood had them at 60-1 in their conference over 3 years and most games blowouts. They are one of those teams that play in a shitty conference but is usually the best team and give teams a scare come NCAA time and some years win a couple of games. If you watched that Duke game , or bothered to listen to Coach K’s presser after, he said if they would have won, if would not have been right , as they were outplayed all night. It was no fluke. So regardless of what the computers say , SFA is and will be one of the 100 best teams in college Division 1 this year , so I urge you to stop with your bullshit that they are not a good team. You are clueless.

 

[willisneverrana43]

So much talk on a Rutgers board about the Six Million Dollar Man University.

 

[blockm2]

You know crap about SFA but I urge you to throw out their record last year and look at their record for the 5-6 years before last year. Because of last year , lost their best players and had injuries, , they started 280 in Kenpom. Just a couple of years ago they made their run to the Elite 8 where they lost to eventual runner up Texas Tech. Underwood had them at 60-1 in their conference over 3 years and most games blowouts.

SFA was really good during Underwood's run. They have not been nearly so good in the 3+ seasons since. Their conference record the last 3 years combined is 33-21 and their best finish was a 3 way tie for 2nd place at 12-6. They certainly have not been dominating their conference.

 

[kcg88]

They also never made an Elite 8 run. They won two round-of-64 games but have never advanced to the Sweet 16.

 

[goru7]

They also never made an Elite 8 run. They won two round-of-64 games but have never advanced to the Sweet 16.

Do you believe the team we beat this year deserves to be 266 in Kenpom when we beat them and now after the Duke win still only 203. ? Do you believe they are not one of the top 100 teams in the country?
Regarding their recent history, you are correct they never made that Elite 8 run, but during the 2013-2014 season they finished 32-3 and 18-0 in their conference under BRAD Underwood and 29 games in a row and as the 12 seed beat Shaka Smart ‘s VCU team which was. 5 seed and then lost to 4 seed UCLA .In 2014-2015 , they won their conference and as a 12 seed lost to Utah a 5 seed in the NCAA tourney. . In 2015-2016 they went 18-0 in conference again , and as a 14 seed beat 3 seeded WVU and lost a heartbreaker to NotreDame by a point in the round of 32( This is when I thought they made their run.) In 2017-2018, they lost to eventual runner up Texas Tech by 10 in the NCAA. Rutgers can only dream to have this recent history.