Theoretical Line-Up Advantages: This Coming Season v Last Season

[lion1983]

This is post flows from the threads on all of our guestimates about Ogbole's potential development, and the truthfully impossible task of really projecting this year's current team. Still, what is this Board about other than fans speculating, eh?

FYI, it takes ZERO leap of faith to project Ogbole might be able to play 15 mpg, and average 4 ppg and 5 rpg ... That is assuming just marginal improvement ... and that with Sommerville, the center position might average 11 ppg and 9-10 rpg, combined. Are people really saying it should be assumed Ogbole make ZERO improvement?

I would say that IF the center position can average 11 ppg and 9-10 rpg (vs 13.8 ppg and 12 rpg last season), and at least solid (not great) defense from the post, then the team should be expected to be significantly better than last season, because of the upgrade in talent everywhere else. Here is how I see the comps:

So ... here is MY speculation of how I think (and I guess hope) how the line-up coming up compares to last season's line-up - which players/positions have advantages, or disadvantages:

Starters (margin of difference measured by # of >>> or <<<):

PG: Harper >>> J. Davis (Davis now mainly serves as a true defensive stopper, averages 12 mpg or less)

2G: J. Williams >> Simpson + 10 games of J Williams (full season of Williams vs 11 games of him)

WF: Bailey >>>> Hyatt, or >>/>>> sometimes J. Williams

PF: Martini > Hyatt (gap narrow, because Hyatt was at least explosive offensively at times, and a good rebounder - though Martini should be a better 3-pt shooter ... Hyatt was okay post defense, but poor perimeter defense)

C: Ogbole <<< Omoruyi (we should assume even a disappointing Omoruyi from last season is definitively better than Ogbole - until proven otherwise)

Reserves:

#1: Acuff >>> Fernandes (Fernandes had some good games, but only a few, was solid defender - except against any player over 6'3" ... Acuff was a better scorer last year than Fernandes ever was)

#2: Derkack >> A. Williams/Griffiths (based on Griffiths' actual performance, not potential)

#3: Sommerville >> Woolfolk

#4: Hayes > Palmquist (Hayes is a PROVEN in-game 40% 3 point shooter - Palmquist mainly that good only in practice)

#5: Dortch/Grant >> Injured Mag/Nobody/Palmquist

 

[Unionst]

Yep, we still need a center. I suspect Pike might still be looking around.

 

[NickRU714]

Comparing next year's roster to last year's roster is near worthless.
That team finished next to last in the league.
Obviously the roster is upgraded.

The comparison to next year's Big Ten competitors is the only comparison that matters.

 

[Scangg]

Comparing next year's roster to last year's roster is near worthless.
That team finished next to last in the league.
Obviously the roster is upgraded.

The comparison to next year's Big Ten competitors is the only comparison that matters.

Yea, we all know they improved the roster. No one is going to take last year's team over this year's team. The question is how much better and can they make a run at the B1G title or deep NCAA run

 

[RUfan1977]

Comparing next year's roster to last year's roster is near worthless.
That team finished next to last in the league.
Obviously the roster is upgraded.

The comparison to next year's Big Ten competitors is the only comparison that matters.

As bad as last year’s team was, as of February 15, 2024, they were 14-11 (6-7 in the Big Ten). Given Pikiel’s track record, I expected better than them finishing their regular season 1-6 and losing in the first round of the Big Ten tournament. Not sure where the players heads were at, but it sure seemed like the team just mailed it in. Pikiel is more subtle when he blasts his players to the press, but he clearly wasn’t pleased when he noted Mag was healthy enough to practice but not play. No doubt that kind of “winning” attitude impacted the whole team.

I believe that last year team only had two players who would likely be starters on any other Big Ten team, Jeremiah and Cliff and Jeremiah only played part of the year.

Comparing this year’s team to last year’s team is interesting because the incoming team could be so much better. Pure speculation, but I would argue that Jeremiah and the four incoming transfers would outplay the starting five of last year’s team before Jeremiah became eligible. Likewise I would argue that the five incoming freshmen would outplay last year’s team without Jeremiah.

Taken together, the three returnees, the five freshmen and the four transfers are substantially better than the team that was 14-11 (6-7 in the Big Ten) in mid February. If last year’s team won the games they were favored to win to close out the season, they would have been an NIT team.

This year’s team has the talent to be a formidable NCAA tournament team if they put in the work in practice and play with the intensity needed at this level.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Last year at the end of the year Pike played Oskar at center over Ogbole.

It is definitely possible that Ogbole is a serviceable answer for 15 minutes at the center position. I would put in pencil with a full and functional eraser.

 

[Big East Beast]

I don’t see how you can take Mag - who was a multi-year starter- and compare him to the #12-13 players.

Chemistry and defense are important in college basketball.

But so is putting the ball in the hoop.

If we learned anything from last year, it’s that
1.) most guys don’t figure out how to score at the college level
2.) frosh can struggle to make the transition to the college game
3.) not all transfers “translate”.
4.) size matters

We have depth of scorers and athletes like we haven’t had in the 30+ years I’ve been watching college hoops.

I’m penciling in the two lottery picks as starters, but everyone else is going to have to compete for starter’s minutes, including Williams.

I think we’re going to play a lot of 3 guard, which would move Ogbole to the bench and likely Acuff onto the floor. Three 6’5” guards, 6’10 wing and 6’7” PF can do a lot of damage and create mismatches most teams can’t exploit with a post player.

Competition in practice makes the whole team better.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Any comparisons to last year's team is almost worthless.

Last year we were a very good defensive team, but a horrific offensive team. On paper this coming year we might be a better offensive team than defense.

As far as fighting for minutes and who has minutes locked up......no one's minutes are set. We know a healthy Ace and Dylan are going to play at least 25 minutes. We don't know if they will be 33+ MPG guys (in contested games, not average MPG). That will be based on performance on both ends of the court.

 

[richthedentist]

Any comparisons to last year's team is almost worthless.

Last year we were a very good defensive team, but a horrific offensive team. On paper this coming year we might be a better offensive team than defense.

As far as fighting for minutes and who has minutes locked up......no one's minutes are set. We know a healthy Ace and Dylan are going to play at least 25 minutes. We don't know if they will be 33+ MPG guys (in contested games, not average MPG). That will be based on performance on both ends of the court.

Healthy Ace and Dylan easily have to go minimum 30 minutes the OP is downplaying JP Hayes who by all reports is our best 3 point shooter; the rest of the minutes well thats what Pikell gets paid for!!

 

[Scarlet Blind]

Ace & Dylan >>>>> every single player on the 22-23 & 23-24 roster.

That's all that needs to be said.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I think a lot of fans are overrating Ace and Dylan as potential B1G basketball players as freshman and underrating the talent that Pike is bringing in.

I think fans are underestimating the difference between 18 and 22 year olds.

Just because a player is going to be in the NBA and potentially high in the draft doesn't necessarily equate to automatically adding wins to a B1G basketball team.

It is VERY possible Jeremiah Williams is a better player next year than Dylan Harper. It is VERY possible at then end of the game Pike trusts a guy like Dercack and has Ace on the bench in crunch time.

Definitely not base case guesses, but my confidence level with Ace and Dylan being the primary reasons we are a Top 20 team is low. I can totally see us being a Top 20 team with Ace and Dylan being pieces along with Williams and a few other newcomers being very productive on both ends.

 

[richthedentist]

I think a lot of fans are overrating Ace and Dylan as potential B1G basketball players as freshman and underrating the talent that Pike is bringing in.

I think fans are underestimating the difference between 18 and 22 year olds.

Just because a player is going to be in the NBA and potentially high in the draft doesn't necessarily equate to automatically adding wins to a B1G basketball team.

It is VERY possible Jeremiah Williams is a better player next year than Dylan Harper. It is VERY possible at then end of the game Pike trusts a guy like Dercack and has Ace on the bench in crunch time.

Definitely not base case guesses, but my confidence level with Ace and Dylan being the primary reasons we are a Top 20 team is low. I can totally see us being a Top 20 team with Ace and Dylan being pieces along with Williams and a few other newcomers being very productive on both ends.

I don't think we are overrating them at all they I would argue after watching all the end of year all star games with Cooper Flagg that Dylan or Ace interchangeable could all be the #1 recruit from last year both of them are that good; Jeremiah is very good but there's no way that at the end of the game Dylan and Ace will not be in; now of course Jeremiah will also be in too it just remains to be seen who the other two are

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

All star games and B1G conference games could almost be 2 different sports.

Winning games is about putting the ball through the hoop on offense and preventing the opponent from doing so on the other end. Not about putting up numbers or having potential.

If Ace shoots 28% from 3, doesn't make the right plays on offense, and doesn't defend as well as others he will be on the bench in crunch time. If Jeremiah is the better ball handler and Dylan is struggling form the perimeter and Dercack is the better defender it isn't inconceivable Dylan only plays 26 minutes.

If I were a betting man on a random Thursday night at home in a tight B1G game I'd have to guess...Jeremiah, Dylan,?, Ace and Martini are on the floor. There are so many potential pieces I just can't have a ton of confidence. Guys like Dercack and Hayes and Acuff can be any where from 0 to 36 minutes.

What I do know....we were a team going nowhere. Jeremiah gets inserted in the lineup and we were a completely different team for a short stretch. Eventually Jeremiah gets fatigued and loses effectiveness.

Until shown differently i am going under the assumption that Jeremiah will be the point guard and is the most important player on the team. Harper 2nd and Ace 3rd would be my picks behind him.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Last year at the end of the year Pike played Oskar at center over Ogbole.

It is definitely possible that Ogbole is a serviceable answer for 15 minutes at the center position. I would put in pencil with a full and functional eraser.

No he didn’t - that much isn’t really true. Ogbole picked up that flagrant and hit the doghouse at a point when the season was all but lost anyway. Thats really what happened.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

No he didn’t - that much isn’t really true. Ogbole picked up that flagrant and hit the doghouse at a point when the season was all but lost anyway. Thats really what happened.

My story sounds better. There was 1 game (or more) for sure where Pike just said F it and put in Oskar over Woolfolk and ogbole

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

My story sounds better. There was 1 game (or more) for sure where Pike just said F it and put in Oskar over Woolfolk and ogbole

So then your story is the same basically. He never concluded that Oskar was a better center than either of them. He was frustrated with both for different reasons. Loved Oskar’s attitude. The season was over anyway. It has no meaning in terms of Ogbole’s potential this year. It did not mean Oskar beat him out or would’ve been a threat to be the starting center if he returned this coming season. So in other words its meaningless.

 

[lion1983]

For sh*ts and giggles, I looked at the Big Ten All Freshman 1st Teams for the last 22 years or so, back to the 2002-2003 season. My source was sports-reference.com/cbb/awards/men/big-ten-all-frosh. Why did I do this? In reference to many (including me, at times), trying to handicap what Big Ten freshmen might be expected to produce in re scoring per game, in particular, the poster who pointed out as talented as Bailey and Harper might be, they are 18 year olds going against often 22 year olds (which also applies to the other 3 frosh).

Now, most of the freshmen on those teams were not top 10 in the country recruits.

That said, it was interesting ... okay, understanding the game today is a bit different (pace, 3-point shooting focus, etc.) than 15-20myears ago ... still I thought the data was ... sobering.

The data covered 22 years, and therefore 110 players (5 1st teamers X 22 years). I think someone may have looked at these already, a few weeks ago - but maybe from a different perspective.

# of 1st Teamers Scoring > 20 ppg: 2 (Kris Humphries - '03-'04 and Eric Gordon - '07-'8)

# of 1st Teamers Scoring b/t 16 ppg - 20 ppg: 9 (Bracey Wright - '02-'03, Manny Harris - '07-'08, Jared Sullinger - '10-'11, D'Angelo Russell - '14-'15, Melo Trimble - '14-'15, Miles Bridges - '16-'17, Romeo Langford - '18-'19, Bryce McGowens - '21-'22, Brice Sensabaugh - '22-'23)

# of 1st Teamers Scoring b/t 13 ppg - 16 ppg: 21 (Daniel Horton - '02-'03, Marlon Smith - '03-'04, DJ White - '04-'05, Tyler Smith - '06-'-7, Kevin Coble - '06-'07, Greg Oden - '06-'07, Kosta Koufos - '07-'08, E'Tuanne Moore - '07-'08, Tim Hardaway (Jr?) - '10-'11, Trey Burke - '11-'12, Cody Zeller - '11-'12, James Blackmon - '14-'15, Tony Carr - '16-'17, Ignas Brazdeikas - '18-'19, Ayo Dosunmu - '18-'19, Trayce Jackson-Davis - '19'20, Kofi Cockburn - '19-'20, Hunter Dickinson - '20-'21, Malaki Branham - '21-'22, Jett Howard - '22''23, Jalen Hood-Schifino - '22-'23)

# of 1st Teamers Scoring b/t 10 ppg - 13 ppg: 43 (too many to list)

# of 1st Teamers Scoring < 10 ppg: 36

Surely there were also Big Ten freshmen players that scored in double digits but did not make the 1st Team all freshman teams.

But ... think about this ... just 32 of the 110 Big Ten 1st Team All Frosh averaged better than 13 ppg. We, as fans (and pretty much all of us) are ASSUMING, TWO of our Freshmen will do so, even do 15 ppg or better. It might happen, as very few of the Big Ten freshmen were top 10 recruits - and I KNOW someone did this analysis, and catalogued how many Big Ten recruits were top 5 or top 10 players over the past 15-20 years . I try again here.

So .. using ESPN (easily accessible), going back to 2007:

2007 - Eric Gordon - #2 ... Koufus - #12, E'Tuanne Moore - #20, Manny Harris - #38
2008 - BJ Mullens - #5
2009 - None in Top 30
2010 - Jared Sullinger - #2, DeShaun Thomas - #12, Jereme Richmond - #23, Adreienne Payne - #26, Keith Appling -#27
2011 - Cody Zeller - #14, Branden Dawson - #23
2012 - Gary Harris - #11, Sam Dekker - #17, Glenn Robinson (Jr?) - #18, Yogi Ferrell - #24, Mitch McGarry - #27, Shaquille Clear - #30
2013 - Noah Vonleh - #13, Zak Irvin - #22, Derek Walton - #30
2014 - D'Angelo Russell - #13, James Blackmon Jr - #20, Kieta Bates-Diop - #22, Jae-Sean Tate - #28, Romelo Trimble - #29
2015 - Diamond Stone - #6, Caleb Swanigan - #9, Thomas Bryant - #20, Deyonta Davis - #2
2016 - Miles Bridges - #8, Josh Langford - #19, Cassius Winston - #32, Amir Coffey - #33
2017 - Jaren Jackson - #9, ... Jordon Poole - #51 !!!
2018 - Romeo Langford - #5, Jalen Smith - #10, Ayo Dosunmu - #36,
2019 - Trayce Jackson-Davis - #27, Rocket Watts - #33, DJ Carton - #35, EJ Liddel - #38
2020 - Khristian Lander - #27, Adam Miller - #30
2021 - Caleb Houstan - #8, Moussa Diabate - #13, Max Christie - #18,Tamar Bates - #25, Malaki Branham - #34
2022 - Malik Reneau - #23, Jalen Hood-Schifino - #26, Skyy Clark - #27, Tarris Reed - #34, Brice Sensabaugh - #45
2023 - Mackenzie Mgbako - #9, Xavier Booker - #15, Coen Carr - #25, Scotty Middleton - #35, Deshawn Harris-Smith - #43
2024 - Ace Bailey - #2, Dylan Harper - #4, Derik Queen - #8, Bryson Tucker - #20, Jase Richardson - #24, Morez Johnson - #28

Are there any potential takeaways from the above?

1) Prior to THIS year, there have been 11 Top 10 recruits in the Big Ten since 2007. TEN of those eleven have been 1st Team All Frosh Big Ten -- only Caleb Houstan missed - and I think he was still pretty solid.

2) Of those 10 of 11 Top 10 recruits who made 1st Team All Big Ten, 9 averaged in double figures as frosh.

3) Of the Top 10 recruits, FOUR (4) averaged 16 ppg or better: Gordon, Sullinger, Bridges and Romeo Langford ... not a bad percentage.

4) If you look at Top 20 recruits, including the Top 10 recruits, there were a total of 25 since 2007. Of those 25 Top 20 national recruits, ALL BUT THREE (3) made the 1st Team All Big Ten Freshman team ... a very good sign that talent assessments for the Top 20 recruits are pretty spot on. The 3 exceptions were Caleb Houstan, and Xavier Booker and Coen Carr (both at Michigan State, both just this past season) ... meaning prior to this past season, EVERY Big Ten Top 20 recruit but 1 made the 1st Team All Big Ten Frosh team!!! As a note, Michigan St. has had amongst the most Top 25 -30 recruits, but probably the highest MISS rate in terms of freshman performance ... Probably because Izzo plays his freshmen less than many coaches do.

Handicapping? There is a decent chance that both Bailey and Harper make the Big Ten 1st Team All Freshman Team (and almost certainly 1st or 2nd Team), and a decent chance at least ONE of those two averages 15 ppg or more.

I hope you all enjoy!

 

[Nycrusupporter]

All star games and B1G conference games could almost be 2 different sports.

Winning games is about putting the ball through the hoop on offense and preventing the opponent from doing so on the other end. Not about putting up numbers or having potential.

If Ace shoots 28% from 3, doesn't make the right plays on offense, and doesn't defend as well as others he will be on the bench in crunch time. If Jeremiah is the better ball handler and Dylan is struggling form the perimeter and Dercack is the better defender it isn't inconceivable Dylan only plays 26 minutes.

If I were a betting man on a random Thursday night at home in a tight B1G game I'd have to guess...Jeremiah, Dylan,?, Ace and Martini are on the floor. There are so many potential pieces I just can't have a ton of confidence. Guys like Dercack and Hayes and Acuff can be any where from 0 to 36 minutes.

What I do know....we were a team going nowhere. Jeremiah gets inserted in the lineup and we were a completely different team for a short stretch. Eventually Jeremiah gets fatigued and loses effectiveness.

Until shown differently i am going under the assumption that Jeremiah will be the point guard and is the most important player on the team. Harper 2nd and Ace 3rd would be my picks behind him.

The idea that Ace plays less than 30 minutes a game for us next year, when he will surely start and play 30+ minutes a game the following year in the NBA as just about every top 3 pick has over the past several years makes no sense.

Furthermore, agreements have been made about how we would play and how they would be used just to get them to come here. Pike and Knight traveled all over the world to recruit these guys, Ace and Dylan weren’t trying to sell Rutgers. Pike starting changing his offense last year to appeal to these guys just to get them to come.

Like Duke and Kentucky did before us with their one and dones, Pike will ride or die with Ace and Dylan. If he doesn’t, he will have NBA guys ripping him, and it will be enormously damaging for our recruiting going forward.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

For sh*ts and giggles, I looked at the Big Ten All Freshman 1st Teams for the last 22 years or so, back to the 2002-2003 season. My source was sports-reference.com/cbb/awards/men/big-ten-all-frosh. Why did I do this? In reference to many (including me, at times), trying to handicap what Big Ten freshmen might be expected to produce in re scoring per game, in particular, the poster who pointed out as talented as Bailey and Harper might be, they are 18 year olds going against often 22 year olds (which also applies to the other 3 frosh).

Now, most of the freshmen on those teams were not top 10 in the country recruits.

That said, it was interesting ... okay, understanding the game today is a bit different (pace, 3-point shooting focus, etc.) than 15-20myears ago ... still I thought the data was ... sobering.

The data covered 22 years, and therefore 110 players (5 1st teamers X 22 years). I think someone may have looked at these already, a few weeks ago - but maybe from a different perspective.

# of 1st Teamers Scoring > 20 ppg: 2 (Kris Humphries - '03-'04 and Eric Gordon - '07-'8)

# of 1st Teamers Scoring b/t 16 ppg - 20 ppg: 9 (Bracey Wright - '02-'03, Manny Harris - '07-'08, Jared Sullinger - '10-'11, D'Angelo Russell - '14-'15, Melo Trimble - '14-'15, Miles Bridges - '16-'17, Romeo Langford - '18-'19, Bryce McGowens - '21-'22, Brice Sensabaugh - '22-'23)

# of 1st Teamers Scoring b/t 13 ppg - 16 ppg: 21 (Daniel Horton - '02-'03, Marlon Smith - '03-'04, DJ White - '04-'05, Tyler Smith - '06-'-7, Kevin Coble - '06-'07, Greg Oden - '06-'07, Kosta Koufos - '07-'08, E'Tuanne Moore - '07-'08, Tim Hardaway (Jr?) - '10-'11, Trey Burke - '11-'12, Cody Zeller - '11-'12, James Blackmon - '14-'15, Tony Carr - '16-'17, Ignas Brazdeikas - '18-'19, Ayo Dosunmu - '18-'19, Trayce Jackson-Davis - '19'20, Kofi Cockburn - '19-'20, Hunter Dickinson - '20-'21, Malaki Branham - '21-'22, Jett Howard - '22''23, Jalen Hood-Schifino - '22-'23)

# of 1st Teamers Scoring b/t 10 ppg - 13 ppg: 43 (too many to list)

# of 1st Teamers Scoring < 10 ppg: 36

Surely there were also Big Ten freshmen players that scored in double digits but did not make the 1st Team all freshman teams.

But ... think about this ... just 32 of the 110 Big Ten 1st Team All Frosh averaged better than 13 ppg. We, as fans (and pretty much all of us) are ASSUMING, TWO of our Freshmen will do so, even do 15 ppg or better. It might happen, as very few of the Big Ten freshmen were top 10 recruits - and I KNOW someone did this analysis, and catalogued how many Big Ten recruits were top 5 or top 10 players over the past 15-20 years . I try again here.

So .. using ESPN (easily accessible), going back to 2007:

2007 - Eric Gordon - #2 ... Koufus - #12, E'Tuanne Moore - #20, Manny Harris - #38
2008 - BJ Mullens - #5
2009 - None in Top 30
2010 - Jared Sullinger - #2, DeShaun Thomas - #12, Jereme Richmond - #23, Adreienne Payne - #26, Keith Appling -#27
2011 - Cody Zeller - #14, Branden Dawson - #23
2012 - Gary Harris - #11, Sam Dekker - #17, Glenn Robinson (Jr?) - #18, Yogi Ferrell - #24, Mitch McGarry - #27, Shaquille Clear - #30
2013 - Noah Vonleh - #13, Zak Irvin - #22, Derek Walton - #30
2014 - D'Angelo Russell - #13, James Blackmon Jr - #20, Kieta Bates-Diop - #22, Jae-Sean Tate - #28, Romelo Trimble - #29
2015 - Diamond Stone - #6, Caleb Swanigan - #9, Thomas Bryant - #20, Deyonta Davis - #2
2016 - Miles Bridges - #8, Josh Langford - #19, Cassius Winston - #32, Amir Coffey - #33
2017 - Jaren Jackson - #9, ... Jordon Poole - #51 !!!
2018 - Romeo Langford - #5, Jalen Smith - #10, Ayo Dosunmu - #36,
2019 - Trayce Jackson-Davis - #27, Rocket Watts - #33, DJ Carton - #35, EJ Liddel - #38
2020 - Khristian Lander - #27, Adam Miller - #30
2021 - Caleb Houstan - #8, Moussa Diabate - #13, Max Christie - #18,Tamar Bates - #25, Malaki Branham - #34
2022 - Malik Reneau - #23, Jalen Hood-Schifino - #26, Skyy Clark - #27, Tarris Reed - #34, Brice Sensabaugh - #45
2023 - Mackenzie Mgbako - #9, Xavier Booker - #15, Coen Carr - #25, Scotty Middleton - #35, Deshawn Harris-Smith - #43
2024 - Ace Bailey - #2, Dylan Harper - #4, Derik Queen - #8, Bryson Tucker - #20, Jase Richardson - #24, Morez Johnson - #28

Are there any potential takeaways from the above?

1) Prior to THIS year, there have been 11 Top 10 recruits in the Big Ten since 2007. TEN of those eleven have been 1st Team All Frosh Big Ten -- only Caleb Houstan missed - and I think he was still pretty solid.

2) Of those 10 of 11 Top 10 recruits who made 1st Team All Big Ten, 9 averaged in double figures as frosh.

3) Of the Top 10 recruits, FOUR (4) averaged 16 ppg or better: Gordon, Sullinger, Bridges and Romeo Langford ... not a bad percentage.

4) If you look at Top 20 recruits, including the Top 10 recruits, there were a total of 25 since 2007. Of those 25 Top 20 national recruits, ALL BUT THREE (3) made the 1st Team All Big Ten Freshman team ... a very good sign that talent assessments for the Top 20 recruits are pretty spot on. The 3 exceptions were Caleb Houstan, and Xavier Booker and Coen Carr (both at Michigan State, both just this past season) ... meaning prior to this past season, EVERY Big Ten Top 20 recruit but 1 made the 1st Team All Big Ten Frosh team!!! As a note, Michigan St. has had amongst the most Top 25 -30 recruits, but probably the highest MISS rate in terms of freshman performance ... Probably because Izzo plays his freshmen less than many coaches do.

Handicapping? There is a decent chance that both Bailey and Harper make the Big Ten 1st Team All Freshman Team (and almost certainly 1st or 2nd Team), and a decent chance at least ONE of those two averages 15 ppg or more.

I hope you all enjoy!

How many freshman have made 1st and 2nd team all B1G?

Ollie Bailey made freshman 1st team.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

The idea that Ace plays less than 30 minutes a game for us next year, when he will surely start and play 30+ minutes a game the following year in the NBA as just about every top 3 pick has over the past several years makes no sense.

Furthermore, agreements have been made about how we would play and how they would be used just to get them to come here. Pike and Knight traveled all over the world to recruit these guys, Ace and Dylan weren’t trying to sell Rutgers. Pike starting changing his offense last year to appeal to these guys just to get them to come.

Like Duke and Kentucky did before us with their one and dones, Pike will ride or die with Ace and Dylan. If he doesn’t, he will have NBA guys ripping him, and it will be enormously damaging for our recruiting going forward.

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[Groz]

All star games and B1G conference games could almost be 2 different sports.

Winning games is about putting the ball through the hoop on offense and preventing the opponent from doing so on the other end. Not about putting up numbers or having potential.

If Ace shoots 28% from 3, doesn't make the right plays on offense, and doesn't defend as well as others he will be on the bench in crunch time. If Jeremiah is the better ball handler and Dylan is struggling form the perimeter and Dercack is the better defender it isn't inconceivable Dylan only plays 26 minutes.

If I were a betting man on a random Thursday night at home in a tight B1G game I'd have to guess...Jeremiah, Dylan,?, Ace and Martini are on the floor. There are so many potential pieces I just can't have a ton of confidence. Guys like Dercack and Hayes and Acuff can be any where from 0 to 36 minutes.

What I do know....we were a team going nowhere. Jeremiah gets inserted in the lineup and we were a completely different team for a short stretch. Eventually Jeremiah gets fatigued and loses effectiveness.

Until shown differently i am going under the assumption that Jeremiah will be the point guard and is the most important player on the team. Harper 2nd and Ace 3rd would be my picks behind him.

Dylan is our point guard and will have the ball in his hands most of the time. Maybe Jeremiah will play some point guard, but rarely with Dylan on the court.

Best of Luck,
Groz

 

[Nycrusupporter]

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You must have reading comprehension issues. I said guys drafted in the top 3 play a minimum of 30 minutes a game in their first season in the NBA. I went back to 2020, and barring guys with significant injuries, every player except two played at least 30 minutes, and the two who didn’t, Scoot Henderson was at 28.5 minutes, and Lemelo Ball was at 28.8 and they had injuries that they played through. And they are all virtually one and done players or international equivalents.

 

[lion1983]

How many freshman have made 1st and 2nd team all B1G?

Ollie Bailey made freshman 1st team.

Good question.

Through a QUICK review, again through sports-reference.com (incomplete data, unfortunately, but since it was quicker and easier, I took that path) ... sports-reference.com only had 1st, 2nd and 3rd teams back as far as 2018-2019 seasons, then only 1st Teams prior to that.

Results:

1st Team All Big Ten who were Frosh:

'02-'03: Kris Humphries - would not be surprised if he was a Top 10 recruit
'06-'07: Greg Oden AND Mike Conley (yes, 2) - Oden was certainly a Top 5 recruit
'07-'08: Eric Gordon - #2 recruit
'10-'11: Sullinger - #2 recruit
'14-'15: D'Angelo Russell - #13 recruit

2nd Team All Big Ten who were Frosh:

'18-'19: Brazdeikas, and Romeo Langford (Langford was #5 recruit)
'20-'21: Hunter Dickinson

3rd Team All Big Ten who were Frosh:

'19-'20: Tracey Jackson-Davis (#27 recruit, but the highest ranked freshman recruit in the Big Ten that year)
'21-'22: McGowens (???) and Branham (#34 recruit)
'22-'23: Hood-Schifino (#26 - but 2nd highest ranked) Big Ten Freshman coming into the season)

So ... not that many.

But, of the 4 Top 5 ranked recruits starting 2007, plus Humphries and Oden (not sure where Mike Conley ranked) .. meaning of the known 6 top 5 ranked recruits since 2002-2003, 4 ended up 1st Team All Big Ten. That actually is a pretty good . And of the 6 freshmen who made 1st Team All Big Ten, since 2002-2003, at least 4 were top 5 ranked, Russell being #13 ranked, and I don't know about Conley - all but Conley were also ranked as the top incoming freshman in the Big Ten that year.

I suspect the last 2 seasons freshmen are downgraded from these teams because so many COVID 5th and 6th year players returned ... plus the huge influx of Portal stars also dilutes what a freshman can do in re 1st Team All Big Ten.

Even so ... there is a CHANCE one of Bailey or Harper might make 1st Team All Big Ten - If RU has a good season. And a reasonable chance at least 1, if not both, makes 1st, 2nd or 3rd Team All Big Ten.

 

[lion1983]

FYI - Conley was ranked #18 in Rivals in the 2006 class, #28 in 247Sports. Oden was the #1 recruit - ahead of Durant (or #2 to Durant).

And Ohio State, with Oden and Conley, went to the NCAA championship game ... if anyone cares, or if it matters. That team also had a 5* Daquan Cook as 2G - Conley as PG, Oden as Center. Their top 3 scorers were Oden (15.6 ppg), Sr. Ron Lewis (2G), 12.7 ppg, Conley (Fr. PG, 11.3 ppg, 6 ass/g), Cook who averaged 9.8 ppg, and 3 players who averaged b/t 5.5 and 8.5 ppg, plus 2 others who played, averaging 2-3 ppg.

So ... to dream ... and I mean dream (not predicting) ... RU has a Senior (really redshirt Junior) in Williams returning who averaged 12+ ppg last season - maybe similar role as leader as OSU's Ron Lewis? Two 5 Star, top 5 ranked recruits - Bailey maybe impact of Oden, and Harper as PG - like Conley? All could, and maybe should average in double digits ppg? Then players with definitive roles who could score between 5 and 9 ppg ... Martini, Acuff, Derkack, Hayes ... maybe Sommerville, even at the low end of that range? And role players to fill specific roles and needs: JDavis for defense and pure PG back-up, Ogbole for spot rebounding, rim protection and post defense, Grant/Dortch for rebounding defense and high energy off the bench?

Well, one can dream, eh? Look, I know, none of this is in a vacuum, that other teams have veterans, stars, etc., returning. But perchance to dream?

 

[richthedentist]

Dylan is our point guard and will have the ball in his hands most of the time. Maybe Jeremiah will play some point guard, but rarely with Dylan on the court.

Best of Luck,
Groz

I still think Jeremiah will have the ball in his hands a little bit more than rarely if not only for fatigue factor as I watched a bunch of Bosco games and he even deferred the ball to other guys at times and Harper can also nail the 3 so nothing wrong with Jeremiah driving and kicking out to Dylan for an open 3!!!

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Dylan is our point guard and will have the ball in his hands most of the time. Maybe Jeremiah will play some point guard, but rarely with Dylan on the court.

Best of Luck,
Groz

Then that is a complete waste of what Williams brings to a team. Having Harper as our point guard would be a huge mistake. We would be asking way too much from a guy who has never played PG in a structured manner. He was NOT a PG in high school.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

You must have reading comprehension issues. I said guys drafted in the top 3 play a minimum of 30 minutes a game in their first season in the NBA. I went back to 2020, and barring guys with significant injuries, every player except two played at least 30 minutes, and the two who didn’t, Scoot Henderson was at 28.5 minutes, and Lemelo Ball was at 28.8 and they had injuries that they played through. And they are all virtually one and done players or international equivalents.

The odds that Ace is drafted in the Top 3 are not high.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I still think Jeremiah will have the ball in his hands a little bit more than rarely if not only for fatigue factor as I watched a bunch of Bosco games and he even deferred the ball to other guys at times and Harper can also nail the 3 so nothing wrong with Jeremiah driving and kicking out to Dylan for an open 3!!!

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Good question.

Through a QUICK review, again through sports-reference.com (incomplete data, unfortunately, but since it was quicker and easier, I took that path) ... sports-reference.com only had 1st, 2nd and 3rd teams back as far as 2018-2019 seasons, then only 1st Teams prior to that.

Results:

1st Team All Big Ten who were Frosh:

'02-'03: Kris Humphries - would not be surprised if he was a Top 10 recruit
'06-'07: Greg Oden AND Mike Conley (yes, 2) - Oden was certainly a Top 5 recruit
'07-'08: Eric Gordon - #2 recruit
'10-'11: Sullinger - #2 recruit
'14-'15: D'Angelo Russell - #13 recruit

2nd Team All Big Ten who were Frosh:

'18-'19: Brazdeikas, and Romeo Langford (Langford was #5 recruit)
'20-'21: Hunter Dickinson

3rd Team All Big Ten who were Frosh:

'19-'20: Tracey Jackson-Davis (#27 recruit, but the highest ranked freshman recruit in the Big Ten that year)
'21-'22: McGowens (???) and Branham (#34 recruit)
'22-'23: Hood-Schifino (#26 - but 2nd highest ranked) Big Ten Freshman coming into the season)

So ... not that many.

But, of the 4 Top 5 ranked recruits starting 2007, plus Humphries and Oden (not sure where Mike Conley ranked) .. meaning of the known 6 top 5 ranked recruits since 2002-2003, 4 ended up 1st Team All Big Ten. That actually is a pretty good . And of the 6 freshmen who made 1st Team All Big Ten, since 2002-2003, at least 4 were top 5 ranked, Russell being #13 ranked, and I don't know about Conley - all but Conley were also ranked as the top incoming freshman in the Big Ten that year.

I suspect the last 2 seasons freshmen are downgraded from these teams because so many COVID 5th and 6th year players returned ... plus the huge influx of Portal stars also dilutes what a freshman can do in re 1st Team All Big Ten.

Even so ... there is a CHANCE one of Bailey or Harper might make 1st Team All Big Ten - If RU has a good season. And a reasonable chance at least 1, if not both, makes 1st, 2nd or 3rd Team All Big Ten.

EXACTLY

 

[seansherm]

FYI - Conley was ranked #18 in Rivals in the 2006 class, #28 in 247Sports. Oden was the #1 recruit - ahead of Durant (or #2 to Durant).

And Ohio State, with Oden and Conley, went to the NCAA championship game ... if anyone cares, or if it matters. That team also had a 5* Daquan Cook as 2G - Conley as PG, Oden as Center. Their top 3 scorers were Oden (15.6 ppg), Sr. Ron Lewis (2G), 12.7 ppg, Conley (Fr. PG, 11.3 ppg, 6 ass/g), Cook who averaged 9.8 ppg, and 3 players who averaged b/t 5.5 and 8.5 ppg, plus 2 others who played, averaging 2-3 ppg.

So ... to dream ... and I mean dream (not predicting) ... RU has a Senior (really redshirt Junior) in Williams returning who averaged 12+ ppg last season - maybe similar role as leader as OSU's Ron Lewis? Two 5 Star, top 5 ranked recruits - Bailey maybe impact of Oden, and Harper as PG - like Conley? All could, and maybe should average in double digits ppg? Then players with definitive roles who could score between 5 and 9 ppg ... Martini, Acuff, Derkack, Hayes ... maybe Sommerville, even at the low end of that range? And role players to fill specific roles and needs: JDavis for defense and pure PG back-up, Ogbole for spot rebounding, rim protection and post defense, Grant/Dortch for rebounding defense and high energy off the bench?

Well, one can dream, eh? Look, I know, none of this is in a vacuum, that other teams have veterans, stars, etc., returning. But perchance to dream?

I think we see Acuff become that #3 guy, unless JWill drastically improves his outside shooting and % of shots he takes from outside.

 

[seansherm]

The odds that Ace is drafted in the Top 3 are not high.

I'd say, as of right now, the odds are higher that he is, than isn't. Obviously much can change.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I'd say, as of right now, the odds are higher that he is, than isn't. Obviously much can change.

definitely would be under 50%

 

[Nycrusupporter]

The odds that Ace is drafted in the Top 3 are not high.

It is almost a slam dunk that he will be. If he were eligible to be drafted tonight, he would go first without ever playing a day in college. The only reason he is talked about going as low as two is because Cooper Flagg reclassed, and there are many NBA scouts who consider Flagg the best prospect since LeBron because of his two way abilities. Even then their are a vocal minority who think Ace has a chance of jumping Flagg. If you look at some of the NBA commentary about last night’s Nets trade, the NBA community believe the Nets have gone all in to get one of Flagg, Ace or Dylan depending on how high the end up in the lottery.

 

[lion1983]

Then that is a complete waste of what Williams brings to a team. Having Harper as our point guard would be a huge mistake. We would be asking way too much from a guy who has never played PG in a structured manner. He was NOT a PG in high school.

Agree ... and agree with richdentist.

Neither Harper nor Williams are "true PG, in the traditional sense of pass-first guards. RU has one "true" PG on their roster now: J. Davis, who will play because that role will be helpful at times, plus because he is the best on-ball defender on the team.

Harper is what I would call a "lead" guard ... Williams also. I define a "lead" guard as one who is more effective with the ball in their hands, who is a real scorer, but can ALSO distribute and make his teammates better. In fact, the current "game", which often has 4 or 5 out play, does not depend on a "pure" PG, and in some ways is less effective with a "pure" PG - you want interchangeable pieces, with any player, or at least any of the 4 or 5 out players, who can shoot AND pass. After all, Bailey is ALSO probably more effective with the ball in his hands.
I would think a 4 out or 5 out offense is the type of offense that can allow for more than 1 or 2 players to have the ball in their hands on any given possession - and for the offense to take advantage defensive match-ups as switches are made. As far as who "triggers" the offense, I suspect it will vary with each time down the court, between Harper, Williams and even Bailey. How do other players fit in? Martini and Hayes are classic spot-up shooters - as the "trigger" players work, drive, etc., the spot-up players rotate out, and space themselves to hopefully be open in the corners or the wings - and probably screen and roll to the wings, not the rim. I think Acuff, who can drive, can also spot up. Harper and Bailey can spot up also. Davis and Derkack are more penetrators/drivers, not spot-up shooters. Ogbole will set a lot of screens, for screen and rolling to the rim. Sommerville? Screening, spacing to mid-range, post ups.

That's how I see it potentially.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

It is almost a slam dunk that he will be. If he were eligible to be drafted tonight, he would go first without ever playing a day in college. The only reason he is talked about going as low as two is because Cooper Flagg reclassed, and there are many NBA scouts who consider Flagg the best prospect since LeBron because of his two way abilities. Even then their are a vocal minority who think Ace has a chance of jumping Flagg. If you look at some of the NBA commentary about last night’s Nets trade, the NBA community believe the Nets have gone all in to get one of Flagg, Ace or Dylan depending on how high the end up in the lottery.

There is a lot of basketball to be played. There are also a big universe of talented players that can move up on the draft board.

 

[Nycrusupporter]

There is a lot of basketball to be played. There are also a big universe of talented players that can move up on the draft board.

This past year is an aberration, because it was known for years as a poor class with little separation, and several of the players at the top were seriously injured. In 2021, rivals had Chet Holmgren and Paolo Banchero has their top 2, and the flipped positions in the draft. Last year, it was known Wemby would be the top pick for at least 3 years before the draft. Flagg and Ace will almost certainly be the top two picks next year, barring an injury that puts their ability to play in doubt.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

While only 1 opinion....

2025 NBA Mock Draft - NBA Draft Room

The 2025 NBA Mock Draft features a stacked group of draft prospects with a few elite talents at the top and a ton of depth.

nbadraftroom.com

 

[seansherm]

definitely would be under 50%

Think we are talking semantics. If the draft was held today, he'd go top three. I agree, much can change by this time next year.

 

[NickRU714]

I still think Jeremiah will have the ball in his hands a little bit more than rarely if not only for fatigue factor as I watched a bunch of Bosco games and he even deferred the ball to other guys at times and Harper can also nail the 3 so nothing wrong with Jeremiah driving and kicking out to Dylan for an open 3!!!

If JWill is driving, nobody is leaving Harper or Ace and risk a kick out 3.

The opposite is the problem with JWill on the court.
If Ace or Dylan are going to the hoop, defense would happily leave JWill open for a kick out. The problem is can JWill hit it?
Or would we be better served with Acuff or Hayes off ball with Harper/Ace.

 

[NickRU714]

If Harper is deferring the ball, wouldn't it go to Ace?

Is Ace incapable of driving the ball up the court or starting the offense?
He's the #2 recruit in the country.