We’re not done yet

[BillyC80]

Until we’re mathematically eliminated from the B1G tourney we still have a chance to win our way into the big dance.

Also, I believe finishing 8-3 in the regular season will put us on the bubble. That would require winning our remaining 5 home games plus 3 road games. It can be done.

Has to start with a W at Northwestern.

And we need Dylan at 80% or better, 25 or more productive minutes per game the rest of the way.

Let’s do it.

 

[winfield102]

Until we’re mathematically eliminated from the B1G tourney we still have a chance to win our way into the big dance.

Also, I believe finishing 8-3 in the regular season will put us on the bubble. That would require winning our remaining 5 home games plus 3 road games. It can be done.

Has to start with a W at Northwestern.

And we need Dylan at 80% or better, 25 or more productive minutes per game the rest of the way.

Let’s do it.

Lol. 18 wins would very likely mean just 2 impressive wins all year. 10 - 1 or bust.

We ain't winning the tourney. Need Dylan and Ace to play well 5 games in a row in 5 days. Not happening.

 

[BillyC80]

Lol. 18 wins would very likely mean just 2 impressive wins all year. 10 - 1 or bust.

We ain't winning the tourney. Need Dylan and Ace to play well 5 games in a row in 5 days. Not happening.

We disagree, and that’s ok. I say it’s possible, which it is.

And btw, if we finish 11-9 in conference we could be in the top 9 and would have to win 4 games, not 5.

 

[Treaster51]

Until we’re mathematically eliminated from the B1G tourney we still have a chance to win our way into the big dance.

Also, I believe finishing 8-3 in the regular season will put us on the bubble. That would require winning our remaining 5 home games plus 3 road games. It can be done.

Has to start with a W at Northwestern.

And we need Dylan at 80% or better, 25 or more productive minutes per game the rest of the way.

Let’s do it.

Until we’re mathematically eliminated from the B1G tourney we still have a chance to win our way into the big dance.

Also, I believe finishing 8-3 in the regular season will put us on the bubble. That would require winning our remaining 5 home games plus 3 road games. It can be done.

Has to start with a W at Northwestern.

And we need Dylan at 80% or better, 25 or more productive minutes per game the rest of the way.

Let’s do it.

As unlikely as this is to occur I do agree 18-13 gets us on bubble . It would mean we probably add 4-5 quad 1 wins to our resume if we go 8-3. UCLA very close to becoming quad 1 with another win tonight as well.

 

[RRRRUUUU]

I think highly unlikely that Dylan plays Wednesday. I think best shot is to get 8-9 wins to qualify for the big ten tournament, while resting Dylan for a few weeks, and have a healthy team for the B1G tourney to make a run

 

[RUSCFORMERLYRULOU]

“We’re not done yet” said Captain Kirk in Star Trek III as he blew up the enterprise and got everyone safely to Genesis.
I trust him a helluva a lot more than I trust “Captain Pike.”
If we have trekkers on the board I hope they liked the joke even if they disagree with me. 😁

 

[ancienthooper]

Until we’re mathematically eliminated from the B1G tourney we still have a chance to win our way into the big dance.

Also, I believe finishing 8-3 in the regular season will put us on the bubble. That would require winning our remaining 5 home games plus 3 road games. It can be done.

Has to start with a W at Northwestern.

And we need Dylan at 80% or better, 25 or more productive minutes per game the rest of the way.

Let’s do it.

I think being less than 100% physically affects him mentally as well. So 80% is 50%. He’s been getting medical clearance but just guessing the coaches no longer want to see a sub-par Dylan. By no means a knock on the kid, obvious by his frame that he was seriously sick, and a rolled ankle will impact anyone’s game (possibly for weeks).

 

[NickRU714]

 

[King of S]

Until we’re mathematically eliminated from the B1G tourney we still have a chance to win our way into the big dance.

Also, I believe finishing 8-3 in the regular season will put us on the bubble. That would require winning our remaining 5 home games plus 3 road games. It can be done.

Has to start with a W at Northwestern.

And we need Dylan at 80% or better, 25 or more productive minutes per game the rest of the way.

Let’s do it.

Oh brother.

 

[BillyC80]

Oh brother.

Takes the same amount of thought and energy to be an optimist or a pessimist.

I love Rutgers, I love college basketball, I love our players. They’re like my sons. When my sons were struggling in some way, I did not give up on them, and I never will. Same with our team.

If you were invited into the locker room before the next game, would you tell the team, “Oh brother, you guys suck, just give up already.” Or would you find something they can latch onto, to give them hope and ignite a spark in them?

I choose the latter.

 

[Smols]

Takes the same amount of thought and energy to be an optimist or a pessimist.

I love Rutgers, I love college basketball, I love our players. They’re like my sons. When my sons were struggling in some way, I did not give up on them, and I never will. Same with our team.

If you were invited into the locker room before the next game, would you tell the team, “Oh brother, you guys suck, just give up already.” Or would you find something they can latch onto, to give them hope and ignite a spark in them?

I choose their latter.

That's called toxic optimism.

 

[BillyC80]

That's called toxic optimism.

Doesn’t apply in sports, but toxic pessimism does.

 

[RUJMM78]

Takes the same amount of thought and energy to be an optimist or a pessimist.

I love Rutgers, I love college basketball, I love our players. They’re like my sons. When my sons were struggling in some way, I did not give up on them, and I never will. Same with our team.

If you were invited into the locker room before the next game, would you tell the team, “Oh brother, you guys suck, just give up already.” Or would you find something they can latch onto, to give them hope and ignite a spark in them?

I choose their latter.

Win one for the Gipper .

 

[Smols]

Doesn’t apply in sports, but toxic pessimism does.

Toxic optimism most certainly does apply to sports.

 

[DHajekRC84]

Takes the same amount of thought and energy to be an optimist or a pessimist.

I love Rutgers, I love college basketball, I love our players. They’re like my sons. When my sons were struggling in some way, I did not give up on them, and I never will. Same with our team.

If you were invited into the locker room before the next game, would you tell the team, “Oh brother, you guys suck, just give up already.” Or would you find something they can latch onto, to give them hope and ignite a spark in them?

I choose their latter.

It's one thing to tell the team that in the locker room. It's another to post this on the forum like you actually believe it even though it is .00001 possible.

But it's your perogotive to come across as you see fit. Hope you get the last laugh.
There's never a reason to give up.. I hope we at least get to see this team play some good bball.

 

[BillyC80]

Toxic optimism most certainly does apply to sports.

Okay, I’ll bite. What’s the downside in going to the locker room and telling the team not to give up?

 

[Smols]

Okay, I’ll bite. What’s the downside in going to the locker room and telling the team not to give up?

I'm not saying you shouldn't encourage them to play on, the coaching staff has to be realistic and address weaknesses, hold them accountable. Just staying positive without addressing weaknesses will solve anything. I'm not sure any of this is going on with the coaching staff, based on Pike's pressers, especially the last one.

 

[BillyC80]

It's one thing to tell the team that in the locker room. It's another to post this on the forum like you actually believe it even though it is .00001 possible.

But it's your perogotive to come across as you see fit. Hope you get the last laugh.
There's never a reason to give up.. I hope we at least get to see this team play some good bball.

I agree with the second part of your post.

Regarding the first part, I didn’t say I believe we WILL do it, only that it is POSSIBLE.

As we sit here at this moment, there is nothing in my OP that is provably false.

The odds of it happening don’t matter. Only the possibility that it COULD happen matters.

When I go to a baseball game, and my home team is down by 5 runs in the bottom of the 9th with 2 outs and bases empty, I don’t get up and leave, regardless of what the odds say. I wait until the last out because I know, as Yogi said, “It ain’t over til it’s over.” I stay to see if we rally and pull off a great comeback.

I’ll give up on this season only when we are mathematically eliminated from the B1G tourney.

 

[fluoxetine]

18 wins does get us to the bubble and we still have a 3-4% chance. Obviously 3-4% is pretty low but we have all seen crazier things happen for example:
Rutgers up 70-60 at Minnesota on 3/2/23 with 1:15 remaining; estimated chance of loss 0.2%
Rutgers down 57-47 vs Purdue on 12/9/21 with 7:57 remaining; estimated chance of win 3.1%

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Okay, I’ll bite. What’s the downside in going to the locker room and telling the team not to give up?

Getting arrested or hit by a security guard

 

[fluoxetine]

Okay, I’ll bite. What’s the downside in going to the locker room and telling the team not to give up?

Getting arrested or hit by a security guard

Sweet Pea bites you on your way back out.

 

[BillyC80]

Getting arrested or hit by a security guard

Some fans think that should happen to Pike, lol.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

18 wins does get us to the bubble and we still have a 3-4% chance. Obviously 3-4% is pretty low but we have all seen crazier things happen for example:
Rutgers up 70-60 at Minnesota on 3/2/23 with 1:15 remaining; estimated chance of loss 0.2%
Rutgers down 57-47 vs Purdue on 12/9/21 with 7:57 remaining; estimated chance of win 3.1%

What are the odds of a player going 50-189 making 4 or more of their next 7 attempts?

Maybe I should ask Deepseek

Asked chatGPT and initially said less than 20% so i asked the same question asking the exact percentage and i got 8.64%, Not quite as improbable

 

[fluoxetine]

What are the odds of a player going 50-189 making 4 or more of their next 7 attempts?

Maybe I should ask Deepseek

Asked chatGPT and initially said less than 20% so i asked the same question asking the exact percentage and i got 8.64%, Not quite as improbable

If we are assuming 50/189 is their "true" percentage then it is 8.477%.

 

[bac2therac]

18 wins does get us to the bubble and we still have a 3-4% chance. Obviously 3-4% is pretty low but we have all seen crazier things happen for example:
Rutgers up 70-60 at Minnesota on 3/2/23 with 1:15 remaining; estimated chance of loss 0.2%
Rutgers down 57-47 vs Purdue on 12/9/21 with 7:57 remaining; estimated chance of win 3.1%

the type of wins matter....18 in itself does nothing we have gone over this before

RU has no marquee wins right now. They have no non conference games. With all SEC/Big 10 schools in the top 100 and almost all the Big 12, alot of schools will have Q1 wins that are not deserving of a bid. Michigan State would have been a marquee win. Illinois and at Purdue and maybe at Oregon are only truly the only feather in the cap opportunities left. Beating Michigan at home is great because of their solid NET but its not going to be considered that big big win. Beating Iowa, Minnesota, and USC at home and Washington on the road do little to help the resume while losses would torpedo any chance.

So there are your 8 wins right there...your 3 losses would be at Northwestern, at Michigan, at Maryland.


so next 11.....Quad 1 4-3, Quad 2-0, Quad 3 2-0

overall 18-13
Quad 1: 5-11
Quad 2: 5-0
Quad 3: 2-2
Quad 4: 6-0
Quad 1/2/3: 12-13.....HUGE NEGATIVE TO BE BELOW 500 HERE TO ADD ON TO THE NEGATIVE OF NO OUT OF CONFERENCE WIN AND A HORRIFIC LOSS TO KENNESAW STATE

you realize that RU would have to beat Illinois, Michigan, at Purdue and at Oregon for the 18-13 scenario to EVEN BE CONSIDERED AND NOT SCREW UP IN ANY OF THE LESSER GAMES

Why is the OP doing this to himself.

 

[fluoxetine]

the type of wins matter....18 in itself does nothing we have gone over this before

RU has no marquee wins right now. They have no non conference games.

You keep saying this but we also don't have 18 wins now and absolutely no one disputes that we are miles and miles away from the bubble if the field is being selected today.

With all SEC/Big 10 schools in the top 100 and almost all the Big 12, alot of schools will have Q1 wins that are not deserving of a bid. Michigan State would have been a marquee win. Illinois and at Purdue and maybe at Oregon are only truly the only feather in the cap opportunities left. Beating Michigan at home is great because of their solid NET but its not going to be considered that big big win. Beating Iowa, Minnesota, and USC at home and Washington on the road do little to help the resume while losses would torpedo any chance.

So there are your 8 wins right there...your 3 losses would be at Northwestern, at Michigan, at Maryland.


so next 11.....Quad 1 4-3, Quad 2-0, Quad 3 2-0

overall 18-13
Quad 1: 5-11
Quad 2: 5-0
Quad 3: 2-2
Quad 4: 6-0
Quad 1/2/3: 12-13.....HUGE NEGATIVE TO BE BELOW 500 HERE TO ADD ON TO THE NEGATIVE OF NO OUT OF CONFERENCE WIN AND A HORRIFIC LOSS TO KENNESAW STATE

I mean quoting a Q1/2/3 winning percentage when 16 of the 25 are Q1 is kinda misleading. How many of your comps played 16 Q1 games? Looking back at pre conference tourney time from last year these are the teams that played 16+ Q1 games:
Houston 16
Marquette 15
Baylor 17

Those are the only ones I see, to be fair I am scrolling through by hand.

you realize that RU would have to beat Illinois, Michigan, at Purdue and at Oregon for the 18-13 scenario to EVEN BE CONSIDERED AND NOT SCREW UP IN ANY OF THE LESSER GAMES

Yep this is why 3-4% is a small number.

Why is the OP doing this to himself.

Because it's more fun than endlessly debating why Pike sucks or why we don't have enough NIL (and also both things can be done at once). Do you ask the same questions about people who stay to the end of games when we have little to no chance to win?

 

[LETSGORU91]

18 wins does get us to the bubble and we still have a 3-4% chance. Obviously 3-4% is pretty low but we have all seen crazier things happen for example:
Rutgers up 70-60 at Minnesota on 3/2/23 with 1:15 remaining; estimated chance of loss 0.2%
Rutgers down 57-47 vs Purdue on 12/9/21 with 7:57 remaining; estimated chance of win 3.1%

The past World Series as well. It was calculated the Dodgers had a 4% chance at winning that game before the 5th inning started.

 

[bac2therac]

You keep saying this but we also don't have 18 wins now and absolutely no one disputes that we are miles and miles away from the bubble if the field is being selected today.

I mean quoting a Q1/2/3 winning percentage when 16 of the 25 are Q1 is kinda misleading. How many of your comps played 16 Q1 games? Looking back at pre conference tourney time from last year these are the teams that played 16+ Q1 games:
Houston 16
Marquette 15
Baylor 17

Those are the only ones I see, to be fair I am scrolling through by hand.

Yep this is why 3-4% is a small number.

Because it's more fun than endlessly debating why Pike sucks or why we don't have enough NIL (and also both things can be done at once). Do you ask the same questions about people who stay to the end of games when we have little to no chance to win?

did 3 conferences land that many teams in the top 100 net last year...have to factor in conference consolidation and different landscape this year. There are at least 6 schools possibly more than have played 10 or more Q1 games currrently. 5-11 in Q1 isnt really a flex

i think there is a less than 3% chance they win the games I just put out there.

and yes these threads are just as bad as the other threads...its totally delusional thinking with no basis of reality..there are no receipts the OP has to say Rutgers is capable of this...the same stuff was posted last year I believe by the OP

 

[fluoxetine]

Er 15 is less than 16 so actually I only see two teams that played 16+ Q1 games.

 

[fluoxetine]

did 3 conferences land that many teams in the top 100 net last year...have to factor in conference consolidation and different landscape this year.

i think there is a less than 3% chance they win the games I just put out there.

Well no.. but I think that's a factor in our favor. That's why our resume (again in the very unlikely scenario we actually win those games) will be stronger relative to the mid-major type teams that would usually be ahead of us with an 18-13 kind of record.

 

[Shelby65]

We disagree, and that’s ok. I say it’s possible, which it is.

And btw, if we finish 11-9 in conference we could be in the top 9 and would have to win 4 games, not 5.

It’s also possible all the volcanos on the planet erupt at the same time.

 

[RRRRUUUU]

the type of wins matter....18 in itself does nothing we have gone over this before

RU has no marquee wins right now. They have no non conference games. With all SEC/Big 10 schools in the top 100 and almost all the Big 12, alot of schools will have Q1 wins that are not deserving of a bid. Michigan State would have been a marquee win. Illinois and at Purdue and maybe at Oregon are only truly the only feather in the cap opportunities left. Beating Michigan at home is great because of their solid NET but its not going to be considered that big big win. Beating Iowa, Minnesota, and USC at home and Washington on the road do little to help the resume while losses would torpedo any chance.

So there are your 8 wins right there...your 3 losses would be at Northwestern, at Michigan, at Maryland.


so next 11.....Quad 1 4-3, Quad 2-0, Quad 3 2-0

overall 18-13
Quad 1: 5-11
Quad 2: 5-0
Quad 3: 2-2
Quad 4: 6-0
Quad 1/2/3: 12-13.....HUGE NEGATIVE TO BE BELOW 500 HERE TO ADD ON TO THE NEGATIVE OF NO OUT OF CONFERENCE WIN AND A HORRIFIC LOSS TO KENNESAW STATE

you realize that RU would have to beat Illinois, Michigan, at Purdue and at Oregon for the 18-13 scenario to EVEN BE CONSIDERED AND NOT SCREW UP IN ANY OF THE LESSER GAMES

Why is the OP doing this to himself.

He’s doing it for the same reason you wrote this novel. We are Rutgers fans that just can’t help ourselves.

 

[RRRRUUUU]

I asked CHATGPT:

Projected Odds:

• If Rutgers finishes with fewer than 17 wins, their chances are virtually 0% unless they win the Big Ten Tournament.


• If they finish with 18-20 wins and a strong Big Ten Tournament showing (e.g., semifinals or finals), their odds improve to around 20-30%, depending on their quality wins and NET ranking.


• If Rutgers wins the Big Ten Tournament, they would earn an automatic bid (100% odds).





Path to the Tournament





To reach a projected 18-12 record (minimum for realistic at-large consideration):


• Win 5-6 of their remaining 7 Big Ten games.


• Add 1-2 wins in the Big Ten Tournament.





In summary:


• Current odds: ~5-10% chance of an at-large bid.


• Path to improve odds: A major turnaround in the remaining regular season and a strong Big Ten Tournament run.

 

[bac2therac]

Well no.. but I think that's a factor in our favor. That's why our resume (again in the very unlikely scenario we actually win those games) will be stronger relative to the mid-major type teams that would usually be ahead of us with an 18-13 kind of record.

right now Rutgers resume would fall 17th in the Big 10..behind Iowa, Penn State, Minnesota, Nebraska, USC, Indiana. Only beating out Washington. Its asburd to do this excercise given our positioning in the Big 10 right now and all of these other schools are looking to do the same and are actually in better shape to make a move

 

[Smols]

did 3 conferences land that many teams in the top 100 net last year...have to factor in conference consolidation and different landscape this year. There are at least 6 schools possibly more than have played 10 or more Q1 games currrently. 5-11 in Q1 isnt really a flex

i think there is a less than 3% chance they win the games I just put out there.

and yes these threads are just as bad as the other threads...its totally delusional thinking with no basis of reality..there are no receipts the OP has to say Rutgers is capable of this...the same stuff was posted last year I believe by the OP

Like I said, toxic optimism.

 

[fluoxetine]

I asked CHATGPT:

Projected Odds:

• If they finish with 18-20 wins and a strong Big Ten Tournament showing (e.g., semifinals or finals), their odds improve to around 20-30%, depending on their quality wins and NET ranking.


In summary:


• Current odds: ~5-10% chance of an at-large bid.

ChatGPT:
- If we get 18-20 wins we have a ~25% of making the tournament.
- We have a ~7.5% chance of making the tournament.
- Therefore, we have a ~ 7.5%/25% = 30% chance of winning 18-20 games.

Conclusion:
ChatGPT is bullshit.

right now Rutgers resume would fall 17th in the Big 10..behind Iowa, Penn State, Minnesota, Nebraska, USC, Indiana. Only beating out Washington. Its asburd to do this excercise given our positioning in the Big 10 right now and all of these other schools are looking to do the same and are actually in better shape to make a move

Why do you keep telling me about right now lol? Is there someone, somewhere on Earth, arguing that we currently are on the bubble?

 

[bac2therac]

we had this discussion last week and it was brutal...now a week later with 2 more losses its just stupid

 

[fluoxetine]

Like I said, toxic optimism.

Explain how "we have a 3% chance of a bid" is "toxic optimism".

In order to do this, you have to establish both that:
- 3% is optimistic AND
- Posting the "optimistic" view that we have a 3% chance is "toxic" in that it causes some negative consequence.

I think you have a less than 3% chance of doing this successfully.

 

[Smols]

Explain how "we have a 3% chance of a bid" is "toxic optimism".

In order to do this, you have to establish both that:
- 3% is optimistic AND
- Posting the "optimistic" view that we have a 3% chance is "toxic" in that it causes some negative consequence.

I think you have a less than 3% chance of doing this successfully.

I was referring to the OP and bac2therac's assessment.

 

[fluoxetine]

I was referring to the OP and bac2therac's assessment.

OP doesn't give a specific percentage but I don't see anything in his post suggesting the probability is high. Just nonzero.

But let's concede that his post is, in fact, optimism. Why is it toxic?