We will be better, but will our record reflect it?

[Big East Beast]

Rutgers literally won every single toss up game last season to finish 7-6. Granted, with a break here or there, some of our losses could have gone the other way. But for the most part, any game where the spread was opponent -3 or less, we won. That is extraordinarily hard to pull off.

So next year our schedule has fewer (or perhaps no) guaranteed losses on it. But how likely are we to continue winning every toss up game? Could we be way better but still finish the regular season 6-6?

Interesting question that brings to mind 1998 when we finished 5-6.

We lost the six games by an average of 33.5 points.

The following season we finished 1-10 and it was clear Shea was toast.

That’s clearly not the situation with the program now.

Our D can be elite this year. And our QB & RB rooms are in a much better place and Kirk’s been here for a year now.

 

[socaldave]

I did. Those were your words. You must not know what ‘The clock is ticking’ means.

I believe he was referring to our place in the new order of college football.
GS is going nowhere. Rutgers football will live or die with Greg, the complicated landscape of college football and NJ in general leaves a long term GS the best and only option for Rutgers Football.
That said it all comes down to QB play,
10-2 is possible if the new guy is a more accurate passer, and has some pocket presence.
8-4 at a minimum

 

[colbert17]

Va Tech is the game which will be so incredibly tough. Much improved team. their QB developed over the course of the season and a very, very hostile environment.
Will tell us a lot.

 

[Knight Shift]

Va Tech is the game which will be so incredibly tough. Much improved team. their QB developed over the course of the season and a very, very hostile environment.
Will tell us a lot.

Tough environment at Va Tech.

Interesting takes by Huskers fans, comparing RU to Indiana:

 

[Shelby65]

I believe he was referring to our place in the new order of college football.
GS is going nowhere. Rutgers football will live or die with Greg, the complicated landscape of college football and NJ in general leaves a long term GS the best and only option for Rutgers Football.
That said it all comes down to QB play,
10-2 is possible if the new guy is a more accurate passer, and has some pocket presence.
8-4 at a minimum

I’ll believe it when I see it. I think 7-5 is still the ceiling because the low risk, run heavy philosophy requires too many plays to score. Most Big10 defenses will stop enough plays to stop our drives long before we get to the red zone.

The philosophy is self-defeating.

 

[tom1944]

Who you have on your schedule and when you play them really makes or breaks your season.

If you happen to have 2 or 3 of the lower level BIG schools rather than 2 or 3 of the top teams from the BIG west it makes a huge difference.

 

[yesrutgers01]

Who you have on your schedule and when you play them really makes or breaks your season.

If you happen to have 2 or 3 of the lower level BIG schools rather than 2 or 3 of the top teams from the BIG west it makes a huge difference.

yep- pretty much our problem since joining the B1G- OSU/Mich/PSU/MSU every year along with Wisc/Iowa

 

[Shelby65]

yep- pretty much our problem since joining the B1G- OSU/Mich/PSU/MSU every year along with Wisc/Iowa

And Minnesota and Nebraska and usually Illinois. So unfair. There’s got to be a way for OOC games like Wagner and Howard to count in conference standings, ain’t that right Fieldhouse Al !

 

[yesrutgers01]

And Minnesota and Nebraska and usually Illinois. So unfair. There’s got to be a way for OOC games like Wagner and Howard to count in conference standings, ain’t that right Fieldhouse Al !

Colgate UAlbany UConn Wagner

Your guys take advantage of an interesting OOC as well.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

And Minnesota and Nebraska and usually Illinois. So unfair. There’s got to be a way for OOC games like Wagner and Howard to count in conference standings, ain’t that right Fieldhouse Al

Can you explain your point? Almost every team schedules an early cupcake. Most teams do not play the same 3-4 perennial top 10 teams every single year which is what we dealt with playing in the BIG East.

 

[Knight Shift]

Can you explain your point? Almost every team schedules an early cupcake. Most teams do not play the same 3-4 perennial top 10 teams every single year which is what we dealt with playing in the BIG East.

Can you and others explain why you engage with that asshat? Ignore it and it will go away.

 

[RUDave_01]

Can you and others explain why you engage with that asshat? Ignore it and it will go away.

You're spot on. The ignore button is our friend.

 

[Shelby65]

Can you explain your point? Almost every team schedules an early cupcake. Most teams do not play the same 3-4 perennial top 10 teams every single year which is what we dealt with playing in the BIG East.

I was refuting the view that we’ve been a victim of unfair scheduling, more commonly playing the top of W than the bottom. Not true.

Points are: 1. within the conference we are the cupcake, 2. Over time, it didn’t matter to our record who we played cross-division, 3. what will the excuse be going forward without divisions ?

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Can you and others explain why you engage with that asshat? Ignore it and it will go away.

No it won’t. And it doesn’t. Unfortunately we now have confirmation that players, recruits and the like read these fan forums. They don’t know Shelby from anyone else. Stupidity (particularly when blatantly wrong) needs to be called out in my opinion.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I was refuting the view that we’ve been a victim of unfair scheduling, more commonly playing the top of W than the bottom. Not true.

Points are: 1. within the conference we are the cupcake, 2. it didn’t matter to our record who we played cross-division, 3. what will the excuse be going forward without divisions ?

Nobody said “unfair”. Just the way it was.

On point 2 - every season is different but we’ve beaten Purdue, NW and Illinois but never beaten Wisconsin or Iowa (often playing them as top 25 teams).

On your 3rd point - I’ll say again. It is not an “excuse”. Every year is different. We won’t be good every single year but to this point it was next to impossible to be above average starting with 3-4 automatic losses to teams nobody beats. In 2014, for instance, we won 8 games because for once, Michigan and PSU weren’t good. We won the Michigan game and lost 13-10 to PSU that season splitting 1-1.

 

[Shelby65]

Nobody said “unfair”. Just the way it was.

On point 2 - every season is different but we’ve beaten Purdue, NW and Illinois but never beaten Wisconsin or Iowa (often playing them as top 25 teams).

On your 3rd point - I’ll say again. It is not an “excuse”. Every year is different. We won’t be good every single year but to this point it was next to impossible to be above average starting with 3-4 automatic losses to teams nobody beats. In 2014, for instance, we won 8 games because for once, Michigan and PSU weren’t good. We won the Michigan game and lost 13-10 to PSU that season splitting 1-1.

Tom implied imbalance in our crossover games, and you do as well (“often playing Top 25”) And you leave out Nebraska and Minnesota.

Yes every season’s crossover is different, but how much does the conf win total tend to vary ? That tells you it’s not related to our crossover schedule. Most of the West is better usually than us, which refutes Tom’s point about crossover schedule imbalance.

 

[Knight Shift]

🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄 🙄

 

[Plum Street]

Va Tech is the game which will be so incredibly tough. Much improved team. their QB developed over the course of the season and a very, very hostile environment.
Will tell us a lot.

We can still lose that game and contend for the BIG title.

 

[Shelby65]

We can still lose that game and contend for the BIG title.

Yea and the nat. champ too.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Tom implied imbalance in our crossover games, and you do as well (“often playing Top 25”) And you leave out Nebraska and Minnesota.

Yes every season’s crossover is different, but how much does the conf win total tend to vary ? That tells you it’s not related to our crossover schedule. Most of the West is better usually than us, which refutes Tom’s point about crossover schedule imbalance.

I did not imply anything about unbalanced or “unfair”. I stated the reality that we typically played 3-4 top 10 teams a year, and sometimes top 25 teams on the other side of the conference too. We’ve often started the season knowing we were going to lose 4+ games for sure.

As for it not mattering because the “other” teams are better than us too, I just don’t know what to tell you there. We’ve played Nebraska a grand total of twice since Schiano returned. Once was in the last game of Covid year. We lost 28-21. The other one was the 14-13 loss in 2022. If you don’t see the difference between playing games like that and Michigan or OSU I don’t know what to tell you.

 

[TRU2RU]

I did not imply anything about unbalanced or “unfair”. I stated the reality that we typically played 3-4 top 10 teams a year, and sometimes top 25 teams on the other side of the conference too. We’ve often started the season knowing we were going to lose 4+ games for sure.

As for it not mattering because the “other” teams are better than us too, I just don’t know what to tell you there. We’ve played Nebraska a grand total of twice since Schiano returned. Once was in the last game of Covid year. We lost 28-21. The other one was the 14-13 loss in 2022. If you don’t see the difference between playing games like that and Michigan or OSU I don’t know what to tell you.

Don’t feed the Sadexcuse troll!!!

 

[RUBOB72]

What is the over /under on wins this season 8… last season 4.5… I’m gonna still say we can get 9 wins. It requires health, QB play, WR uptick and great D.

 

[WasatRutgers]

Yea and the nat. champ too.

For the first time since 1869

 

[Plum Street]

Yea and the nat. champ too.

You are good at math

 

[Kbee3]

What is the over /under on wins this season 8… last season 4.5… I’m gonna still say we can get 9 wins. It requires health, QB play, WR uptick and great D.

And a healthy Monangai.

 

[Eagleton96]

With the new schedule, I think a 7-5 season would be very good, 8-4 would be outstanding. I see probable loses as Wash, @USC , @ Neb, Wisc. Tossup games as @VT, UCLA, @ Mich St , @md. Illinois, Minn at home are must wins with the Howard, Akron games. IMO, the game @VT and home against UCLA will be the key games regarding a winning season.

Agree. But I think a Washington win is more likely than VT in Blacksburg.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

What is the over /under on wins this season 8… last season 4.5… I’m gonna still say we can get 9 wins. It requires health, QB play, WR uptick and great D.

8 would seem high for an over/under line (from Vegas). Is one out yet?

The win count floor probably isn’t a whole lot different than it was last year. Howard and Akron are must wins. We had 2 of those last season too. We could lose to anyone else on a given day. The difference is we don’t have any games scheduled where we have no chance of winning whatsoever. Those are replaced by teams where we’ll still be a considerable underdog though. If I was setting the over/under line for us I think I’d set it at 6.5.

 

[RUbacker]

Rutgers literally won every single toss up game last season to finish 7-6. Granted, with a break here or there, some of our losses could have gone the other way. But for the most part, any game where the spread was opponent -3 or less, we won. That is extraordinarily hard to pull off.

So next year our schedule has fewer (or perhaps no) guaranteed losses on it. But how likely are we to continue winning every toss up game? Could we be way better but still finish the regular season 6-6?

Have you seen our D ? Well for the most part they are all returning which changes everything . That D will get us wins. The O is going to be more of a help this year. Don’t underestimate Kirk in year two . So yes I believe it results in more wins .

 

[RUbacker]

Va Tech is the game which will be so incredibly tough. Much improved team. their QB developed over the course of the season and a very, very hostile environment.
Will tell us a lot.

You do know we have an away game USC right ? Win that one and …..BOOM!

 

[RUbacker]

We can still lose that game and contend for the BIG title.

Why is everyone afraid of va tech? Tough away game for sure but winnable .

 

[rutgersal]

Why is everyone afraid of va tech? Tough away game for sure but winnable .

I agree. We absolutely dominated VT and other ACC teams, especially Miami, in the trenches. And we return most of our linemen. No way do they fix their talent and S&C issues in the trenches in one year. It took us four years.

 

[mikebal9]

Show me major improvement on the offensive line, and I'll believe it. That's the only way to win.

 

[Shelby65]

Show me major improvement on the offensive line, and I'll believe it. That's the only way to win.

Right. This D can let up 13 ppg and this team may be 6-6 again. We will be underdogs in conference games more often than not. QB play was scary bad last year and we don’t know it will be any better no matter who the QB is.

 

[Shelby65]

I did not imply anything about unbalanced or “unfair”. I stated the reality that we typically played 3-4 top 10 teams a year, and sometimes top 25 teams on the other side of the conference too. We’ve often started the season knowing we were going to lose 4+ games for sure.

As for it not mattering because the “other” teams are better than us too, I just don’t know what to tell you there. We’ve played Nebraska a grand total of twice since Schiano returned. Once was in the last game of Covid year. We lost 28-21. The other one was the 14-13 loss in 2022. If you don’t see the difference between playing games like that and Michigan or OSU I don’t know what to tell you.

Posters suggest playing USC, UCLA and Washington this is easier than OSU, UM and PSU. Of course that’s right, but is the outcome different ?

That’s the point. The schedule may be easier, but 8-9 wins ? C’mon now.

People forget that in G1 NW lost its HC and MSU handed us the game.

I’d sign for 6 wins right now, fearing QB play will ugly again.

 

[colbert17]

Why is everyone afraid of va tech? Tough away game for sure but winnable .

Definitely winnable! Just saying that this will be a very tough game.

 

[knightfan7]

The optimist in me says 10-2. Losing to two of UW, USC, Wisconsin or Va Tech.

The realist says 8-4, with losses to 3 of those 4 plus UCLA, Maryland or Nebraska.

Michigan State will be a wild card.

i see the 3 toughest opponents in order USC, Va Tech, and Nebraska. All Away.

Washington returns all of 3 starters, none on Offense. I'd at least put Wisconsin and Maryland ahead of them.

 

[knightfan7]

Posters suggest playing USC, UCLA and Washington this is easier than OSU, UM and PSU. Of course that’s right, but is the outcome different ?

That’s the point. The schedule may be easier, but 8-9 wins ? C’mon now.

People forget that in G1 NW lost its HC and MSU handed us the game.

I’d sign for 6 wins right now, fearing QB play will ugly again.

Washington lost all 11 starters on O and 8 on D. It's pretty much a completely new team from the football office to the guys in the uniforms. Really can't go with what the team that isn't there did. UCLA wasn't anywhere near the team that PSU, OSU, and Mich have been for a number of years.

I;d watch out for Va Tech

 

[Shelby65]

Washington lost all 11 starters on O and 8 on D. It's pretty much a completely new team from the football office to the guys in the uniforms. Really can't go with what the team that isn't there did. UCLA wasn't anywhere near the team that PSU, OSU, and Mich have been for a number of years.

I;d watch out for Va Tech

all true, and Washington lost its coach too but surely their next batch of starters and also philosophy are ahead of ours.

It’s not whether these teams are better than OSU, PSU and UM. Of course they aren’t. But they are very likely better than us.

 

[RUTGERS95]

Should have replaced vtech

 

[RUBOB72]

Any game can be a loss .VT will be a tough game in Blacksburg but if Rutgers is to make any noise that is the game to do it. Nobody really outside of Rutgers will expect us to win that game. Greg Schiano needs some 2006 karma. We do have some talent and we do have depth .