I recall watching it and thinking. Hmmmm. That might come back to haunt us. Rutgers is always so accommodating. Epic tailgate though. True fans and great sense of camaraderie overcoming the elements to support your team.
Weather for PSU: tailgates mild/dry, game likely to have some showers and be windy with front
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I'm hoping this Saturday is another epic tailgate. Followed by one of the biggest upset wins in RU history.
Tonight's models still showing solution spread, which is not unusual 4 days out, when +/- 3-6 hours makes a huge difference to us (nobody else really cares, but we do). I haven't seen any models showing precip before about 6-7 pm and some hold off until well after midnight, so it's still looking like a dry, relatively warm (temps only dropping from highs in the low 60s to the mid-50s by kickoff) tailgate. The game has a good chance of being dry, also, but it certainly has a greater chance of some showers than the tailgates do.
No matter what, we're not talking deluge-level rains, but could be a bit beyond a mere nuisance sprinkle, too. But movements of 3-6 hours are still quite possible this far out, so a tailgate shower or two can't be ruled out yet. Hopefully the timing of the approaching front will be nailed down in the next day or so, once the system is on shore out west.
No matter what, we're not talking deluge-level rains, but could be a bit beyond a mere nuisance sprinkle, too. But movements of 3-6 hours are still quite possible this far out, so a tailgate shower or two can't be ruled out yet. Hopefully the timing of the approaching front will be nailed down in the next day or so, once the system is on shore out west.
Things are coming more into focus, but still some remaining uncertainty. It's pretty much a lock that the tailgates will be dry, with at most a sprinkle in the early evening. High temps in the early/mid-afternoon will be in the low to mid 60s with partly sunny skies, but increasing clouds as we head towards dark.
Temps will drop slowly after dark, into the low 50s by kickoff and only to the upper 40s by the end of the game, although with breezy conditions (10-15 mph winds from late afternoon through the game) it will feel a little cooler.
During the game, there is a chance for a brief, light shower or two, but this is definitely looking like nuisance level rain of <0.02". And some models are still showing zero rain through midnight, so it still could remain completely dry. A dry tailgate and the threat of only nuisance level rain should mean attendance won't be affected much (at least until the first rain drop hits, lol).
Define, "nuisance rain." Lotta you weather guys said nuisance rain last year and I ended up soaked.
Depends on the person. Less than 0.02" of rain is nuisance rain for most (that's 2/10" of snow equivalent, if that helps). Based on people on this board, it seems like 0.05-0.10" of rain is the grey area where some cry and moan and some chuckle at it. Above 0.10" (1" snow equivalent) seems to be the point where most people find it more than a nuisance. My threshold is about 1/4" of rain, especially if it's cold.
For comparison, the PSU game 2 years ago had about 0.25" of rain during the tailgates and most agreed that was fairly miserable if you didn't have a canopy. At this year's UM game we had about 0.15" during the tailgates and about 0.05-0.10" during the game, which some thought was nuisance level and some thought was beyond - that's why I called that the grey zone. But 0.02" should be nuisance for most - if that's what we get.
any rain is at the miserable level based on the play this year
Things are coming more into focus, but still some remaining uncertainty. It's pretty much a lock that the tailgates will be dry, with at most a sprinkle in the early evening. High temps in the early/mid-afternoon will be in the low to mid 60s with partly sunny skies, but increasing clouds as we head towards dark.
Temps will drop slowly after dark, into the low 50s by kickoff and only to the upper 40s by the end of the game, although with breezy conditions (10-15 mph winds from late afternoon through the game) it will feel a little cooler.
During the game, there is a chance for a brief, light shower or two, but this is definitely looking like nuisance level rain of <0.02". And some models are still showing zero rain through midnight, so it still could remain completely dry. A dry tailgate and the threat of only nuisance level rain should mean attendance won't be affected much (at least until the first rain drop hits, lol).
Not a lot of change, except we're now closer and confidence in a dry tailgate is now very high. Tailgates should be mild and dry, with temps in the low 60s in the early/mid-afternoon, dropping into the low-50s by kickoff. It will also start to get breezy (10-15 mph winds) by kickoff and quite windy after midnight.
With regard to precip, some models show a completely dry game and some show a few light showers starting as early as ~8 pm. No models are predicting more than 0.05" of rain during the game and as I said in my post yesterday, most people consider <0.05" of rain over a couple of brief showers to be nuisance level rain. Of course, if we got 0.05" in 5-10 minutes from a short moderate shower, that would annoy more folks than 30 min of light rain and 0.05".
Sure, bring the rain gear, just in case (I won't be), but odds are maybe 50/50 that we have nothing more than a sprinkle for the game - and shower chances are more likely in the 2nd half than the first half. Temps will be down to the mid-40s by the end of the game, with breezy conditions, so any rain that falls late will "feel" worse. I'll be happy if we get to the end of the game and I'm still there, to be honest.
Could well be some accumulating snow in the Poconos, Sussex County, and the Catskills after midnight (1-2" possible, especially above 1000 feet); no snow is expected close to I-95 or points S/E of there. However, areas near I-95 could see their first snowflakes (which would melt immediately with temps in the mid-30s) of the season in the pre-dawn hours on Monday.
Not a lot of change, except we're now closer and confidence in a dry tailgate is now very high. Tailgates should be mild and dry, with temps in the low 60s in the early/mid-afternoon, dropping into the low-50s by kickoff. It will also start to get breezy (10-15 mph winds) by kickoff and quite windy after midnight.
With regard to precip, some models show a completely dry game and some show a few light showers starting as early as ~8 pm. No models are predicting more than 0.05" of rain during the game and as I said in my post yesterday, most people consider <0.05" of rain over a couple of brief showers to be nuisance level rain. Of course, if we got 0.05" in 5-10 minutes from a short moderate shower, that would annoy more folks than 30 min of light rain and 0.05".
Sure, bring the rain gear, just in case (I won't be), but odds are maybe 50/50 that we have nothing more than a sprinkle for the game - and shower chances are more likely in the 2nd half than the first half. Temps will be down to the mid-40s by the end of the game, with breezy conditions, so any rain that falls late will "feel" worse. I'll be happy if we get to the end of the game and I'm still there, to be honest.
Could well be some accumulating snow in the Poconos, Sussex County, and the Catskills after midnight (1-2" possible, especially above 1000 feet); no snow is expected close to I-95 or points S/E of there. However, areas near I-95 could see their first snowflakes (which would melt immediately with temps in the mid-30s) of the season in the pre-dawn hours on Monday.
So, basically just like the Mich game. No rain for days in either direction, except during the 3 hours RU plays football. F'n wonderful.
Except some models show nobrain prior to midnight whereas, IIRC, ALL models by now had us getting rain for Michigan. So there's that!
I plan on starting the tailgate early enough that there is a 100% chance of nobrain before the game starts.
Uhhh, we had our most rain in a long time on Tuesday, a few showers on Wednesday, and we have chances of showers from Sat night through Monday morning. Not like Michigan at all.
Not a lot of change, except we're now closer and confidence in a dry tailgate is now very high. Tailgates should be mild and dry, with temps in the low 60s in the early/mid-afternoon, dropping into the low-50s by kickoff. It will also start to get breezy (10-15 mph winds) by kickoff and quite windy after midnight.
With regard to precip, some models show a completely dry game and some show a few light showers starting as early as ~8 pm. No models are predicting more than 0.05" of rain during the game and as I said in my post yesterday, most people consider <0.05" of rain over a couple of brief showers to be nuisance level rain. Of course, if we got 0.05" in 5-10 minutes from a short moderate shower, that would annoy more folks than 30 min of light rain and 0.05".
Sure, bring the rain gear, just in case (I won't be), but odds are maybe 50/50 that we have nothing more than a sprinkle for the game - and shower chances are more likely in the 2nd half than the first half. Temps will be down to the mid-40s by the end of the game, with breezy conditions, so any rain that falls late will "feel" worse. I'll be happy if we get to the end of the game and I'm still there, to be honest.
Could well be some accumulating snow in the Poconos, Sussex County, and the Catskills after midnight (1-2" possible, especially above 1000 feet); no snow is expected close to I-95 or points S/E of there. However, areas near I-95 could see their first snowflakes (which would melt immediately with temps in the mid-30s) of the season in the pre-dawn hours on Monday.
Well, the models have come into better agreement, finally. Still looks like a dry and mild tailgate with high temps in the mid-60s in the early afternoon and temps dropping down to the mid-50s by kickoff. Winds will be light before about 3-4 pm, but will become breezy for the 4-8 pm timeframe with 10-15 mph winds and starting to become gusty near gametime. Canopies could become airborne by the early evening if not tied down well.
Then the front comes through during the game and winds will pick up to 15-20 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph possible, as a wind advisory is up for the NWS Philly counties, including Middlesex - but is not up for the NWS NYC Counties (like neighboring Union/SI), so we're right on the edge of where the heavy gusts will be (gusts are only supposed to be up to 30 mph in SI, for example). Temps will drop into the upper 40s by the end of the game.
The front looks to be most vigorous around 9-10 pm, which is when the wind gusts will be the greatest and when showers are mostly likely with 0.05-0.10" of rain possible. It's quite possible that most of the rain will fall in a 20-30 minute period, as a thin band of moderate to briefly heavy showers passes across with the cold front - maybe we'll get lucky and that will be halftime, lol. The chances of the front being delayed a couple of hours until after the game are now very low, unfortunately.
http://www.weather.gov/phi/
Perfect way to end the home schedule, sitting in a cold rain.
As for that W Va game. We stayed until the very end, and almost didn't make it home as the driving conditions became so dangerous. Falling trees everywhere, no power , no stop lights, skidding . Just a very bad memory.
As for that W Va game. We stayed until the very end, and almost didn't make it home as the driving conditions became so dangerous. Falling trees everywhere, no power , no stop lights, skidding . Just a very bad memory.
Well, the models have come into better agreement, finally. Still looks like a dry and mild tailgate with high temps in the mid-60s in the early afternoon and temps dropping down to the mid-50s by kickoff. Winds will be light before about 3-4 pm, but will become breezy for the 4-8 pm timeframe with 10-15 mph winds and starting to become gusty near gametime. Canopies could become airborne by the early evening if not tied down well.
Then the front comes through during the game and winds will pick up to 15-20 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph possible, as a wind advisory is up for the NWS Philly counties, including Middlesex - but is not up for the NWS NYC Counties (like neighboring Union/SI), so we're right on the edge of where the heavy gusts will be (gusts are only supposed to be up to 30 mph in SI, for example). Temps will drop into the upper 40s by the end of the game.
The front looks to be most vigorous around 9-10 pm, which is when the wind gusts will be the greatest and when showers are mostly likely with 0.05-0.10" of rain possible. It's quite possible that most of the rain will fall in a 20-30 minute period, as a thin band of moderate to briefly heavy showers passes across with the cold front - maybe we'll get lucky and that will be halftime, lol. The chances of the front being delayed a couple of hours until after the game are now very low, unfortunately.
http://www.weather.gov/phi/
Would be a beautiful thing if the wind factored into the game causing missed field goals or muffed punts or punt returns by PSU due to the wind, and leading to a victory by RU.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 PM EST SAT NOV 19 2016
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT...
* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
* TIMING...THERE ARE TWO PERIODS WHEN THE MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS ARE
MOST LIKELY...THIS EVENING WITH AND FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT...AND SUNDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN LIMBS...TREES...AND POWER
LINES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE STRONG WINDS MAY MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE OPERATING A HIGH PROFILE VEHICLE. USE EXTRA CAUTION. LIGHT-
WEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS SUCH AS PATIO FURNITURE AND GARBAGE CANS
SHOULD BE SECURED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 PM EST SAT NOV 19 2016
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT...
* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
* TIMING...THERE ARE TWO PERIODS WHEN THE MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS ARE
MOST LIKELY...THIS EVENING WITH AND FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT...AND SUNDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN LIMBS...TREES...AND POWER
LINES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE STRONG WINDS MAY MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
THOSE OPERATING A HIGH PROFILE VEHICLE. USE EXTRA CAUTION. LIGHT-
WEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS SUCH AS PATIO FURNITURE AND GARBAGE CANS
SHOULD BE SECURED.
Wow, what a bunch of whiners. Forecast was perfect for the tailgates and it called the timing for the front coming through perfectly (9-10 pm) with gusty winds and rain. Yeah, the forecast was off for the amount of precip and how quickly the temps fell during the game. It happens. This is mesoscale forecasting, which is very difficult to get correct and the models way underestimated the dynamic cooling we'd see with the enhanced convection. Game was over by then anyway.
Gotta say the sleet and then some snow later with temps all the way down to 34F were my favorite part of this crappy game - it was wild out there for awhile. Had an awesome tailgate today, though. Sad to see so many fans leave so early, though - RU fans are the epitome of fair weather fans - it's depressing.
Gotta say the sleet and then some snow later with temps all the way down to 34F were my favorite part of this crappy game - it was wild out there for awhile. Had an awesome tailgate today, though. Sad to see so many fans leave so early, though - RU fans are the epitome of fair weather fans - it's depressing.
You left at the first sign of rain/sleet - almost as bad as Angela's sister, who left during the spritz in the first half, lol.
It wasn't worth torturing myself physically and emotionally staying until the end.
Forget the Eurpoean model-someone was using the Sports Illustraded Swimsuit Edition model. Ironically, over the years, the Penn State games have had some bad weather. The weather though WAS INCREDBLE FROM 11AM PRE WRESTLING THROUGH 4ISH PM-still nice but a bit colder and windy 4PM through the 1st quarter.
some day we may have a game worth sitting through regardless of the weather conditions
I am being maliciously maligned. Maliciously, I say. Maliciously. :)
First of all, it rained in the first half and I was there till near the end of the third quarter at least. So your first-sign hyperbole is way off base.
Secondly, my reason for leaving had almost nothing to do with the arrival of the, unforecast I wish to point out, frozen precipitation or the accompanying frigid wind. I left because concurrently with the arrival of the aforementioned hail-like weather I was made a decidedly less-frigid offer that I felt would have been horribly rude of me to decline.
