OT: Wintry Mix Thursday (2/6) after 1 am: some snow/sleet through 6-8 am, then a bit of freezing rain (esp NW of 95) then rain likely until ~12 pm

[RU848789]

I’m supposed to land in Newark about 4:00pm tomorrow.
United is already posting about delays& cancellations and giving notice to change travel plans.
Hopefully by then the System has moved on and the airport gets back to normal operations.

Airport conditions at EWR should be fine by 10 am or so, when temps go above freezing, but it's hard to predict any residual delays from earlier in the morning. I would think airports should be able to keep runways/planes snow/ice free and not have too many issues, mostly assuming only 1-2" of snow/sleet, although the freezing rain is a bit of a wild card.

 

[RU848789]

The NWS in both Philly and NYC expanded their advisories to just about their entire forecast areas, largely for a freezing rain risk of up to 0.1". Snowfall amounts were bumped up slightly from 4 pm, with a wider area in their 1-2" blue swath (which is largely 1-1.5" based on their point-and-click hourly graphics), including all of NENJ/NYC metro.

The NWS made a more substantial snowfall map update, below, about 30 minutes ago, bumping up amounts so that all of CNJ and adjacent EPA, along/N of 276/195 are in the 1-2" darker blue swath, as is all of NENJ/NYC and most of LI. Note that the point/click forecasts show about 1.2-1.6" of snow/sleet for most locations in the darker blue. The NWS also updated their freezing rain ice accretion map, below. It shows simply 0.01-0.10" of freezing rain, but they have a more detailed map (not included below) showing ice in the 0.02-0.04" range for 95 and SE of there towards the coast, but the advisories state up to 0.1" possible for these locations, as the NWS knows it would only take a minor change to get to those levels.

Bottom line is that it's going to be a messy/icy overnight after midnight tonight (when precip starts) through at least the morning rush hour for almost everyone with temps going above 32F for the 95 corridor and SE of there between 7 am (coast) and 10 am (95). Treated roads will likely be fine, but untreated roads will be covered with snow/sleet, as temps will be in the upper 20s when the precip begins, and then some freezing rain on top of that will make things worse, before the changeover to rain. Be careful out there folks.

 

[RU#1fan]

Airport conditions at EWR should be fine by 10 am or so, when temps go above freezing, but it's hard to predict any residual delays from earlier in the morning. I would think airports should be able to keep runways/planes snow/ice free and not have too many issues, mostly assuming only 1-2" of snow/sleet, although the freezing rain is a bit of a wild card.

Thanks much.
Hoping the system can “move through quicker “ so roads , airports, etc. can be restored earlier.

 

[WhiteBus]

Thanks much.
Hoping the system can “move through quicker “ so roads , airports, etc. can be restored earlier.

The biggest change from last nights forecast on local Philly news to right now on 6ABC on their 10 AM run they are saying it could be done by 11am.

 

[bac2therac]

yes this isnt a long duration event...not likely to get started til 2-3 AM for most and out by noon if not 10 or 11 for some.

So you have an 8 hour window of time for a storm with snow at lighter rates at the start and will there be enough of a thump of any heavier rates before changing to sleet and freezing rain to put down any substantial accumulations of snow beyond an inch or so.....many times the sleet comes in right away but there are times then snow/sleet persists longer than expected and thats the uncertainty here...then you have the freezing rain which probably will be happening during rush hour. So messy commute because of the timing but conditions should improved rapidly in the afternoon

some models are more frozen like the rgem and the very aggressive hrrr which puts 4 inch totals of frozen out but both NAMs are actually very benign for tomorrow. Even the gfs really is only 1-1.5 of frozen across central jersey

As usual location location location...the usual suspects to the north know what you are in for..those to the south and shore have been through this and those in the central its always the middle ground that could go either way.

 

[bac2therac]

 

[bac2therac]

the 12z euro and ukie provided a good thump of 2-3 inches...something to watch

 

[RU848789]

12Z models are in and are snowier and a bit wetter, in general. Tough forecast. Could see the NWS maybe bumping the initial snowfall thump up a little bit, but maybe not, as perhaps they have confidence in the warm air aloft coming in sooner, holding down snow/sleet amounts to the 1-2" forecast for most N of 276/195. We'll see.

• For the global models, the Euro and CMC are both about 2-4" for folks N of 276/195 (and 1-2" south of there for Philly and northern SNJ), UK is 3-5" for the whole Philly-NJ-NYC region, while the GFS is 1-2" along/N of 276/195, but 2-4" for NENJ/NYC.
• For the meso/short-term models, the HRRR and RAP are very bullish, still, with 3-5" for the entire region (a bit less for far SNJ), the RGEM shows 2-3" N of 276/195 (1" or so south of there)
  • The NAM and NAM 3km are huge outliers showing <1" south of 80, with a bit of freezing rain, but mostly rain falling (1/4-1/2") and 1-2" of snow to freezing rain and rain north of there. Hard to take them too seriously given how much of an outlier they are - would be a huge coup if they were right.
• Almost all of the models showing a few inches or more of snow above do eventually show a changeover to sleet and rain (1/4" or more as temps go above freezing in the mid/late morning for most) with some showing a brief transition featuring freezing rain first, especially along/NW of 95

 

[S_Janowski]

Any change to the start time for those who will be going to the basketball game?

Heading from South Jersey, so curious what it may be like between 11pm - 12pm.

 

[bac2therac]

Any change to the start time for those who will be going to the basketball game?

Heading from South Jersey, so curious what it may be like between 11pm - 12pm.

its possible you could encounter something around midnight down there but you should be okay, even if you do this would be very light snow at the start even in your parts. I wouldnt stay home because of a threat of an early start

 

[miket007]

The freezing rain/rain line are in the Smyrna DE area around 7am when I normally leave for work so I might just call in to say i'll be 1-2 hours late. Ice is nothing to play with....

 

[DJ Spanky]

So we're looking at this getting started up here in North Jersey around 2-3 AM?

 

[RocktheRac]

The freezing rain/rain line are in the Smyrna DE area around 7am when I normally leave for work so I might just call in to say i'll be 1-2 hours late. Ice is nothing to play with....

Unless it's in a glass with booze

 

[bac2therac]

the NAMs refuse to budge as they want to make this basically a non event for everyone. the latest hrrs and rap are a bit less bullish than earlier runs

 

[bac2therac]

NJZ010-012-013-015-017>020-027-PAZ070-071-104-106-060815-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0006.250206T0400Z-250206T1500Z/
Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Mercer-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-
Philadelphia-Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Morrisville, Freehold, Glassboro,
Trenton, Lansdale, Cherry Hill, Somerville, Philadelphia, Media,
Doylestown, Norristown, Mount Holly, Jackson, Moorestown, Wharton
State Forest, New Brunswick, and Camden
208 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations around one
tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern, and southern New Jersey and
southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Thursday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

 

[Doteman]

State offices have delayed opening until 11am

 

[RU848789]

The NWS made a more substantial snowfall map update, below, about 30 minutes ago, bumping up amounts so that all of CNJ and adjacent EPA, along/N of 276/195 are in the 1-2" darker blue swath, as is all of NENJ/NYC and most of LI. Note that the point/click forecasts show about 1.2-1.6" of snow/sleet for most locations in the darker blue. The NWS also updated their freezing rain ice accretion map, below. It shows simply 0.01-0.10" of freezing rain, but they have a more detailed map (not included below) showing ice in the 0.02-0.04" range for 95 and SE of there towards the coast, but the advisories state up to 0.1" possible for these locations, as the NWS knows it would only take a minor change to get to those levels.

Bottom line is that it's going to be a messy/icy overnight after midnight tonight (when precip starts) through at least the morning rush hour for almost everyone with temps going above 32F for the 95 corridor and SE of there between 7 am (coast) and 10 am (95). Treated roads will likely be fine, but untreated roads will be covered with snow/sleet, as temps will be in the upper 20s when the precip begins, and then some freezing rain on top of that will make things worse, before the changeover to rain. Be careful out there folks.

Bottom line: probably a good idea to stay off the roads between 3 am and 8-9 am for everyone in the region as this is the period of heaviest frozen precip, especially south of 78; with temps <32F for just about everyone (especially N of 276/195), any snow/sleet or freezing rain will accumulate easily on untreated surfaces. North of 78, roads might still be icy until late morning or noon. Also, zero precip before midnight so no impact on the hoops game.

Latest NWS maps below for snow and freezing rain - not much change since this morning, other than to extend the 1" line southward from about 276/195 to a line from Philly to LBI. If the NWS is right, expect a general 1-2" snowfall between Philly-LBI and 78 with the 1" amounts likely south of 276/195 to Philly-LBI and <1" south of the Philly-LBI line (precip will change to sleet/freezing rain earlier there) and closer to 2" near 78 and anywhere north of 78, including the rest of NNJ, NEPA, and NYC/western LI/Hudson Valley.

Also, the advisories are still up for everyone, largely due to the risk of up to 0.1" of freezing rain along/SE of 95 and up to 0.2" of freezing rain NW of 95 in PA/NJ, although most models are showing little to no ice along SE of 95, but it only takes a glaze of 0.02-0.04" to make things very slippery on untreated surfaces and that's what is forecasted along and SE of 95 in NJ. Once the transition to freezing rain occurs (assuming it does), the transition to plain rain should happen quickly, likely by 8-10 am for everyone along/S of 78 and an hour or two later N of 80 and well NW of 95 as temps go into the mid/upper 30s.

Note that most of the 12Z and 18Z models are showing 1-3" or 2-4" (except the NAM showing <1" still), but I think the NWS is counting on a changeover to sleet to keep snow depth down. If we get a decent burst of snow from about 4 am to 8 am as many models show, without changing over, those 2-4" amounts could be realized even in CNJ, but it's more likely that sleet mixes in and keeps the snowfall amounts under 2" for just about everyone except folks north of 78 and especially 80, where mixing will likely be delayed. This is why several models and and some forecasters (including Lee Goldberg) are calling for up to 3" north of 78.

https://www.weather.gov/phi