Airport conditions at EWR should be fine by 10 am or so, when temps go above freezing, but it's hard to predict any residual delays from earlier in the morning. I would think airports should be able to keep runways/planes snow/ice free and not have too many issues, mostly assuming only 1-2" of snow/sleet, although the freezing rain is a bit of a wild card.
The NWS in both Philly and NYC expanded their advisories to just about their entire forecast areas, largely for a freezing rain risk of up to 0.1". Snowfall amounts were bumped up slightly from 4 pm, with a wider area in their 1-2" blue swath (which is largely 1-1.5" based on their point-and-click hourly graphics), including all of NENJ/NYC metro.
Thanks much.
The biggest change from last nights forecast on local Philly news to right now on 6ABC on their 10 AM run they are saying it could be done by 11am.
its possible you could encounter something around midnight down there but you should be okay, even if you do this would be very light snow at the start even in your parts. I wouldnt stay home because of a threat of an early start
The NWS made a more substantial snowfall map update, below, about 30 minutes ago, bumping up amounts so that all of CNJ and adjacent EPA, along/N of 276/195 are in the 1-2" darker blue swath, as is all of NENJ/NYC and most of LI. Note that the point/click forecasts show about 1.2-1.6" of snow/sleet for most locations in the darker blue. The NWS also updated their freezing rain ice accretion map, below. It shows simply 0.01-0.10" of freezing rain, but they have a more detailed map (not included below) showing ice in the 0.02-0.04" range for 95 and SE of there towards the coast, but the advisories state up to 0.1" possible for these locations, as the NWS knows it would only take a minor change to get to those levels.
Bottom line is that it's going to be a messy/icy overnight after midnight tonight (when precip starts) through at least the morning rush hour for almost everyone with temps going above 32F for the 95 corridor and SE of there between 7 am (coast) and 10 am (95). Treated roads will likely be fine, but untreated roads will be covered with snow/sleet, as temps will be in the upper 20s when the precip begins, and then some freezing rain on top of that will make things worse, before the changeover to rain. Be careful out there folks.
Most did a bit, except the Euro and UK.
Can't call it a bust as it wasn't a big deal to begin with except the chance of sleet/ice.
It's a bust, IMO vs. predictions of 1-2" of snow by the NWS and most forecasters and the many models showing 1-2" to 2-4" of snow. The NAM was the only one really showing <1" of snow due to an earlier changeover to sleet. This can be seen in the 0Z run last night, where the Pivotal snowmap shows <0.5" of snow, but the Tropical Tidbits map was showing ~2" of "snow" for much of CNJ - but on TT, sleet is reported as 10:! ratio snow by the model, whereas Pivotal doesn't count sleet at all. 2" of sleet would be about 2/3" of "snow" on the ground given about a 3:1 sleet:liquid ratio.
Good decision. It was a mess in the Trenton area early. *edit* It's better to wait for the frozen precip to pass before hauling everyone into the office.
Are you just trolling? NWS had all of CNJ in the 1-2" swath and your and my point and click forecasts were for about 1.3" of snow which is clearly within 1-2". Many forecasters had us in 1-2" of snow. Also, I posted the two versions of the NAM to illustrate that by inference, the NAM forecast was for 2" of "snow" as sleet which is 2/3" of frozen precip on the ground, which isn't too far off what we have, which is why the NAM won the forecast derby.
I agree this is a bust for the snow predicted. The models and guidance were leading people to speculate whether we'd get an initial thump of snow, wall of snow to begin, etc that then gets a crust of ice on top to end it, before going all rain.
Exactly not worth mentioning bust
Storm over for me and most of CNJ, at least; final measurement was 0.4" of mostly sleet, bringing my winter total up to 11.1". Temp up to 33F and is 33-35F along and SE of 95 with light rain falling and the radar looks like the worst of the precip is over, although we still might get another 0.1-0.2" of rain - and this is very likely still sleet or maybe freezing rain 15-20 miles NW of 95 (i.e., a Doylestown to Morristown to Mahwah line where it's still in the 30-32F range and further NW of there where it's in the upper 20s.
🙄 depends on where you live. The schools in the southern half of the state are on a delayed opening or remote learning schedule.
I was hoping for more rain just to clean everything up plus we need the rain. Was just outside. Can hardly see anything on the ground but you certainly hear the crunch of sleet underfoot.
