Almost certain we would not make the NCAAs with 20 total wins including B1G tourney. Our weak OOC hurts, and the B1G losing almost all of its big OOC games seals it. We would need at least 21 to even be on the bubble.
So . will be happy with a .500 record this season (16 or 17 overall regular season wins - prefer 17).
But ... on the NCAA bubble thing ... I think I agree, that 20 regular season wins (20-11) probably would not be enough for RU to get an NCAA bid this year given RU's OOC strength (or weakness). IF RU loses to SHU, as seems likely, but holds court otherwise, then RU would be 11-2 OOC, and 9-9 in the Big Ten ... I do not think that gets RU an NCAA bid ... though it MIGHT get an NIT bid ... maybe.
On the other hand, Shack is putting forward that if RU wins 10 (ten) Big Ten regular season games, that might put RU in line for an NCAA bid. And he MIGHT be correct. Because a 10-8 regular season Big Ten record, plus 11-2 in OOC, even with a weak OOC, puts RU at 21-10, regular season. THAT might be enough - and if not NCAA, that seems like a likely NIT bid.
On the 3rd hand, though I do not think it will happen, if RU beats SHU, somehow ... that puts RU in line for a record of 12-1 OOC, with a really good win against SHU, and a close lose to FSU. Would 9-9 in the Big Ten, for a 21-10 record be enough for an NCAA bid? Very possibly ... 10-8 in the Big Ten would mean an almost certain NCAA bid ... even 8-10 with a 12-1 OOC record might get RU bubble status, and a possible NIT bid.
It all seems not the most likely outcome, though, and is therefore hugely speculative (therefor fun, but useless other than being fun).