Hey BAC.. pinned thread idea.. WHAT WE NEED TO MAKE NCAAs

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

Hey @bac2therac , You are already likely doing the prep work for your NCAA predictor thread(s).. why not make one focussing on what Rutgers CURRENTLY needs to do and update it after each game (re-writing the first post).. get some mod to PIN IT.

For instance, after the NW loss it might have been..

- GO BETTER than 50-50 in remaining games and win one Big Ten Tourney game

OR....

- WIN the BIG TEN TOURNEY.. but we'll likely have to play 4-5 days in a row and no one has ever done that.

...something like that.. not that I know the above was/is accurate... but something like that.. maybe 3 options starting wiht how many Big Ten tourney wins we would need IF we won X remaining games... yeah.. that's a decent format...

- WIN THE B10 TOURNEY

or

- Go X and Y down the stretch and get 1st round BYE and win 2 games

or

- Go A and B in remaining games, do not get a BYE and win 3 games

Something like that.

 

[bac2therac]

Ill do something on Monday about this. For me its a week too soon to do a full bubble outlook until the 2nd full week of the month

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Any recipe needs to have one team to slay on the road. Without a road win we would need to at best lose in the B1gT finals and at worse win it.

17-13 does us no good with our only road win being Maryland.

Nothing to pin until we win on the road.

 

[bac2therac]

17-13 with 2 big 10 tourney wins at 19-14 will include 4 more Q1 wins giving us 7

 

[bac2therac]

And i agree we have multiple red flags

Poor road mark
Horrific Quad 4 loss
Horrid non conference SOS

Rutgers is the most scandalous bubble school

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

And i agree we have multiple red flags

Poor road mark
Horrific Quad 4 loss
Horrid non conference SOS

Rutgers is the most scandalous bubble school

That 19-14 team would probably be like no other.

 

[Scangg]

17-13 with 2 big 10 tourney wins at 19-14 will include 4 more Q1 wins giving us 7

Has any team ever missed the tournament with 7 Q1 wins?

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

Has any team ever missed the tournament with 7 Q1 wins?

If someone wants to do the work.. here is a story on the best teams to miss the tourney

The only P5 team on the list is Louisville and they missed because of a self-ban.. which probably just preempted an actual ban. So I doubt that link will reveal someone with many Q1 wins.

Here's a story from the 2021 Tourney about the biggest "snubs".. none of them had many Q1 wins...

If we collect a couple-three more Q1 wins, this may come down to some backroom horsetrading by whoever is selecting teams... while conference reps are not supposed to vote on their own teams, you know there has to be some unofficial water-cooler discussions going on. Would a Big Ten rep go to bat for us any more than the Big East reps did not? I doubt it.. keep a favor in their pocket for a "real" Big Ten team I think. Then again, Rutgers Grad Kelly Whiteside is going to be on the CFP selection committee for 3 years... maybe some Big Ten rep might make an effort to have a chip in her favor bank.

(yeah, I know that's cynical.. and yet...)

 

[zappaa]

Adrian Balboa put it best…..WIN

“Well what are we waitin fer “

 

[Mr_Twister]

According to Sagarin, we are #70 as of 6 February 2021. We are 4-1 against Top 25 teams, and 4-2 against Top 50 teams. That's got to put us very close to being NCAA tourney participant.

 

[bac2therac]

According to Sagarin, we are #70 as of 6 February 2021. We are 4-1 against Top 25 teams, and 4-2 against Top 50 teams. That's go to put us very close to being NCAA tourney participant.

Unfortunately Sagarin is not used as a metric or criteria to determine a ncaa bid

 

[G- RUnit]

Beat OSU and Wiscy and we are going to be in conversation no matter bad losses.

 

[RU82]

We are going to be prepared to other bubble teams. Our big wins are going to matter. We just need to get more of them.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

And i agree we have multiple red flags

Poor road mark
Horrific Quad 4 loss
Horrid non conference SOS

Rutgers is the most scandalous bubble school

Yes …which is why anything less than 20 wins is gojng to keep us on the bubble

12-8 and 18-12….then 1-1 in the tourney to 19-13….will makw Us really sweat .

I really don’t see how 11-9/17-13….going to even 19-14, let alone 18-14, gets us there ….

 

[Scarlet Shack]

17-13 with 2 big 10 tourney wins at 19-14 will include 4 more Q1 wins giving us 7

I can’t count on Iowa being a quad one win until I see them pull solidly ahead in the 7 spot in the big ten and ahead of Michigan and Iowa ….for thar to be a quad one win, they need to stay on track by winning the next three winnable games …starting today with Minnesota

 

[hinson32]

Any recipe needs to have one team to slay on the road. Without a road win we would need to at best lose in the B1gT finals and at worse win it.

17-13 does us no good with our only road win being Maryland.

Nothing to pin until we win on the road.

We have two rows wins already. Brad Watchel, who I believe is right there with BAC feels RU is a lock with 12 BIG wins. On the bubble with 11. That means we need 5 more wins in the regular season.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

We have two rows wins already. Brad Watchel, who I believe is right there with BAC feels RU is a lock with 12 BIG wins. On the bubble with 11. That means we need 5 more wins in the regular season.

Nebraska and Maryland. Need 1 more.

The reality is there are probably 30-40 other schools whose results will impact what Rutgers needs. We also don't know what the committee is thinking as the type of resume Rutgers could have will be tough to look at other schools in the past as precedent.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Yes …which is why anything less than 20 wins is gojng to keep us on the bubble

12-8 and 18-12….then 1-1 in the tourney to 19-13….will makw Us really sweat .

I really don’t see how 11-9/17-13….going to even 19-14, let alone 18-14, gets us there ….

I agree with you...but haven't sharpened the pencil and really look at all those ACC teams and how they compare. ACC may give the field 3 to 4 extra spots compared to past years.

American conference.....could be 1 if Houston wins and all those average teams beat each other
SEC...look like the one to watch they could be slurping up the ACC spots

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

This team is so crazy. Would anyone be truly surprised if we dropped. say 8 of the last 9 and then won the B1G tourney?

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Nebraska and Maryland. Need 1 more.

The reality is there are probably 30-40 other schools whose results will impact what Rutgers needs. We also don't know what the committee is thinking as the type of resume Rutgers could have will be tough to look at other schools in the past as precedent.

What other teams do always matters, but it’s very unlikely we would get in without an autobid if we don’t get to 19 wins. Since there’s no path to 19 that doesn’t include at least 4 wins away from home (if we lose out on the road we’d need 2 neutral wins), I’m convinced that where we win no longer matters for our chances. Winning at home would involve beating some really good teams. Combine that with two more neutral wins and we’d be in pretty good position.

 

[hinson32]

Nebraska and Maryland. Need 1 more.

The reality is there are probably 30-40 other schools whose results will impact what Rutgers needs. We also don't know what the committee is thinking as the type of resume Rutgers could have will be tough to look at other schools in the past as precedent.

Not sure that is true, but it certainly can't hurt.

 

[BillyC80]

This team will be so exciting to watch in the big dance. We gotta find a way to get there.

 

[bac2therac]

RU need to win 3 at home and one on the road to at least be on the bubble. I would trade a win over Ohio State for a win at Indiana which would benefit us in many ways... road win over ncaa tourney team is needed.

 

[motorb54]

I can’t count on Iowa being a quad one win until I see them pull solidly ahead in the 7 spot in the big ten and ahead of Michigan and Iowa ….for thar to be a quad one win, they need to stay on track by winning the next three winnable games …starting today with Minnesota

Iowa beat Minnesota 71-59 on Sunday.

 

[goru7]

RU need to win 3 at home and one on the road to at least be on the bubble. I would trade a win over Ohio State for a win at Indiana which would benefit us in many ways... road win over ncaa tourney team is needed.

Need that Ohio state win to keep momentum to get to 8-5, then going to Wisconsin , to Purdue and to Michigan and to Indiana gives us 4 opportunities for a road win . The last 3 halves gives you real hope instead of a pipe dream, that we will get at least 1 on the road. Have to not lose at the RAC-JMwhich will give us 3 more ranked wins , Quad 1 wins.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

RU need to win 3 at home and one on the road to at least be on the bubble. I would trade a win over Ohio State for a win at Indiana which would benefit us in many ways... road win over ncaa tourney team is needed.

The thing is - Either we win a conference road game or we go 4-4 at best which means we then need to win 2 in the tourney. In that case the second one would mathematically have to be against OSU, Wiscy, Illinois or Purdue on a neutral floor. That would be on top of winning out against the top of the conference at home. It wouldn’t be like 2019 where had we lost in the first round, the win at Purdue would’ve been the only win away from the RAC. We can’t get to 19 without 4 wins away from home.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

RU need to win 3 at home and one on the road to at least be on the bubble. I would trade a win over Ohio State for a win at Indiana which would benefit us in many ways... road win over ncaa tourney team is needed.

In terms of that trade off, I agree - but only because Indiana is safely in the field.

The Michigan game is on the road, and if we’re only able to get 4 wins, I feel like that’s the one remaining that would help us the least because Michigan probably won’t make the field or will at best be a bubble team. We can’t afford another Q3 loss (PSU) and all the other teams left on the schedule are locks for the field. Right now we have 3 wins over field teams and that’s the metric most important to pile on to offset the bad losses. Mainly I’m thinking that making the true road record a little less bad probably moves the needle less than collecting an extra signature win helps (even at home)? 7 wins against the top half of the bracket stands out regardless of venue.

 

[kcg88]

The thing is - Either we win a conference road game or we go 4-4 at best which means we then need to win 2 in the tourney. In that case the second one would mathematically have to be against OSU, Wiscy, Illinois or Purdue on a neutral floor. That would be on top of winning out against the top of the conference at home. It wouldn’t be like 2019 where had we lost in the first round, the win at Purdue would’ve been the only win away from the RAC. We can’t get to 19 without 4 wins away from home.

Road wins are worth more than neutral wins.

 

[WhoRU?]

Any chance the Rider game that was canceled in December gets rescheduled? An extra game won't fool the computers, but having one more can't hurt if we wind up on the bubble.

 

[kcg88]

Any chance the Rider game that was canceled in December gets rescheduled? An extra game won't fool the computers, but having one more can't hurt if we wind up on the bubble.

We're Wednesday-Saturday-Wednesday-Sunday-Wednesday-Saturday-Wednesday-Sunday the rest of the way. Whatever tiny benefit playing that game would have is more than canceled out by having to play three games in five days.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

It's wayyyy too early to start this, there are too many other teams either dropping in the rankings or whatever to know what's going on.

Injuries across the country are piling up for teams too.

The notion that Indiana is a NCAA team is still not a lock. They have

@ Northwestern
@ Michigan State
Wisconsin
@ Ohio State
Maryland
@Minnesota
Rutgers
@ Purdue

I am not sure where Indiana is, they are 3 games better than RUs overall record, which essentially could be 2 games if RU made up the Rider game.

If Northwestern stays hot and picks off Indiana, are they going to bounce back and win 2 of the next 3 at Sparty, hosting Wisconsin and at Ohio State??

Indiana can probably afford a loss at Northwestern if they pick off Wisconsin at home.

Once you look into the schedules across the B1G and other leagues, you start to realize how early it is on February 7th.

 

[bac2therac]

It's wayyyy too early to start this, there are too many other teams either dropping in the rankings or whatever to know what's going on.

Injuries across the country are piling up for teams too.

The notion that Indiana is a NCAA team is still not a lock. They have

@ Northwestern
@ Michigan State
Wisconsin
@ Ohio State
Maryland
@Minnesota
Rutgers
@ Purdue

I am not sure where Indiana is, they are 3 games better than RUs overall record, which essentially could be 2 games if RU made up the Rider game.

If Northwestern stays hot and picks off Indiana, are they going to bounce back and win 2 of the next 3 at Sparty, hosting Wisconsin and at Ohio State??

Indiana can probably afford a loss at Northwestern if they pick off Wisconsin at home.

Once you look into the schedules across the B1G and other leagues, you start to realize how early it is on February 7th.

You are right. Its exactly why i cannot do a full breakdown yet. Most schools have 8 games at least to play and some as many as 11. I will do a rough outlook in the coming days just to see who is probably in and how far out Rutgers sits currently

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

It is way too early to figure out who is going to make it or not. It is way too early to identify how strong the 2022 bubble will be. Throwing out potential records RU needs to be and looking at current metrics as guides isn't early.

If RU goes 4-4 it is obvious work needs to be done in B1GT. I would think under any circumstance we would need at least 1 win. Whether that number is 2 or 3 or win it all would depend on those external factors that is way too early.

Bac would agree withl you that I am 100% certain

EDIT: and he just did

 

[RUtrumpet92]

The notion that Indiana is a NCAA team is still not a lock. They have

@ Northwestern
@ Michigan State
Wisconsin
@ Ohio State
Maryland
@Minnesota
Rutgers
@ Purdue

I am not sure where Indiana is, they are 3 games better than RUs overall record, which essentially could be 2 games if RU made up the Rider game.

Hark, I've been thinking the same thing. They are capable of putting up a good number of wins down the stretch, but what if they drop three of the next four, beat Maryland and Minnesota, then lose to Rutgers and Purdue, to finish 3-5? They would be 19-11 (10-10) with maybe three road wins (they have two now, plus add a win at Minnesota hypothetically). That would put them 7th at best in conference, but maybe tied for 8th or 9th depending on how Michigan and Iowa fare. Let's pretend they face Iowa in the 8/9 game to start the B1G tournament, and they lose that one. (They already lost at Iowa.) If that plays out, I think they are NIT bound.

On the flip side, they could win the next two, beat us too, and finish 6th or better.

It's too soon to say what will happen.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

If a LOCK is 100%...in if they lose out. I'll bet we have ZERO locks right now. Obviously the probabilities of Gonzaga losing out are rather slim.

 

[bac2therac]

It is way too early to figure out who is going to make it or not. It is way too early to identify how strong the 2022 bubble will be. Throwing out potential records RU needs to be and looking at current metrics as guides isn't early.

If RU goes 4-4 it is obvious work needs to be done in B1GT. I would think under any circumstance we would need at least 1 win. Whether that number is 2 or 3 or win it all would depend on those external factors that is way too early.

Bac would agree withl you that I am 100% certain

EDIT: and he just did

Its terrible that they are putting brackets daily from tip off of the season. All just for clicks. Its started an awful trend of talking about bubble teams in January which is ludicrous. Moving teams in and out based on results on a Wednesday night in January is ludicrous

We can get a rough picture of who is getting in and who has work to do but 8 games out of a 30 game season plus more games in conference tourneys mean about 30% or more of the season has yet to be played.

Take UCLA for example. They just lost their last 2 to the Arizona. What if they lose 6 of their next 8. You cannot just assume schools that appear locks are locks without some big caveats. Ive seen schools take big tumbles and ive seen schools play their way in from zombieland like Providence did a few years ago

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Road wins are worth more than neutral wins.

Against the same team, sure. But a neutral win over OSU or Illinois would matter much more than a road win against Michigan (if they don’t make the tournament). Wins over field team is also an important metric.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Its terrible that they are putting brackets daily from tip off of the season. All just for clicks. Its started an awful trend of talking about bubble teams in January which is ludicrous. Moving teams in and out based on results on a Wednesday night in January is ludicrous

We can get a rough picture of who is getting in and who has work to do but 8 games out of a 30 game season plus more games in conference tourneys mean about 30% or more of the season has yet to be played.

Take UCLA for example. They just lost their last 2 to the Arizona. What if they lose 6 of their next 8. You cannot just assume schools that appear locks are locks without some big caveats. Ive seen schools take big tumbles and ive seen schools play their way in from zombieland like Providence did a few years ago

Fran almost did it in 2014. They were 15-3 and barly squeaked in.

T-Page for Iowa - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

www.barttorvik.com

 

[bac2therac]

but that road win over Michigan would click a box that RU doesnt really have. Yes Michigan might not make the tourney but its still Quad 1 win on the road. Remember RU two years ago, everyone thought the Maryland win was enough but it was actually the win at Purdue who has a similar profile to Michigan which put us over the top

 

[bac2therac]

Fran almost did it in 2014. They were 15-3 and barly squeaked in.

T-Page for Iowa - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

www.barttorvik.com

by the way Fran has Covid and sat out the last Iowa game,