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BACATOLOGY 3/11: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS

I see your logic but I just cannot see St. John's over Seton Hall. St. John's beat Creighton, Hall beat Marquette (basically cancel each other out).

Seton Hall beat UConn which is the best win ANY team, in or out of the field, has this year (unless there is a Clingan asterisk).
Rutgers had a win at Purdue and was left out last year with a NET 26 spots higher than SHU and more wins vs the field than SHU
 
sju is 10-12 vs Q1/2, shu is 9-11

sju is 13-13 vs Q1/2/3, shu is 11-12 vs Q1/2/3

very small difference but thats how tight it is but also better metrics...sor is better than for shu 36 to sju 46
 
its not that impressive but its clean and they have Q3 wins unlike SHU and PC who get 9 and 11 from Q4.

PC at 10-13 is a no go

SHU is 11-12

Mich State is 15-14

Mich State has better sos than either especially non conference 14/44

shu 32/228

Prov 34/227

plus Mich St has better avg net win and loss 119/36 compared to 153/41 for SHU and 157/36 for PC
Plus one totally off resume and intangible point, is the committee likely to stick it to Tom Izzo? I doubt it, if anything they contort themselves to try and bend over backwards to ensure MSU is in. It’s not a measurable, it’s not on paper, it’s not a metric, it’s not part of this year’s resume, but it’s one hell of a human bias that easily pops into the heads of the committee. It’s like the evaluation is part MSU/part Izzo……I guarantee they don’t stick it to Izzo. Some of the other coaches and teams? Sure, why not. Plus, I think they’re slightly ahead of other bubble teams based upon resume and metrics, so I say there is zero chance Izzo is getting screwed over.
 
I think they may go with metrics here and eye test and St Johns wins out

for anyone watching the tournament, St Johns looks like they belong. Providence too but remember that 10-13 mark plus an injury is tough to overcome. SHU has terrible metrics across the board even with the best win...and they didnt look the part vs St Johns. The bid theives definitely played an impact but im warming to the idea of St johns
I agree SJU has looked the part more over the last couple weeks, but they also had a lot more to play for in that BET game. They knew they were playing for their lives while at the time SHU actually felt pretty safe. The desperation difference in that game was clear to anyone watching.

The part I have a problem with is if predictive metrics come into play. That would be like if the NBA selected the playoff field based on expected win % instead of actual win %.

I get it helps when comparing teams across conferences that are playing vastly different schedules, but these 2 teams played the same schedule over the past 3 months and one was definitively better than other other.
 
Losing 15 games during the year but winning 4 games in March is "better" than winning 20 games during the year somehow.

Great tournament design.......
It's a great made for TV tournament with minimal priority on actual athletics or determining the best team in CBB.
Face it, it's not a truly objective pick of the best teams competing and it's not even a beauty contest . It's become a tv reality show for those that gamble or are easily interested in the latest fad promoted by the talking heads.
 
sju is 10-12 vs Q1/2, shu is 9-11

sju is 13-13 vs Q1/2/3, shu is 11-12 vs Q1/2/3

very small difference but thats how tight it is but also better metrics...sor is better than for shu 36 to sju 46

Beat them 2 out of 3 including a win at St John's. IMO that's a big factor along with the UConn win. It becomes even more so with UConn being the tourneys # 1 seed.
 
In a massive debate which BE team I want to include, I don't want to discount Providence either.
 
Last year we Beat Penn State twice and had a good resume and PSU got in. Does not seem to matter head to head. Again they lost to RU, Iowa and USC.
 
Beat them 2 out of 3 including a win at St John's. IMO that's a big factor along with the UConn win. It becomes even more so with UConn being the tourneys # 1 seed.
head to head isnt going to be a factor...see A&M vs Notre Dame 2 years back

if they want St Johns the eye test justifies it, if they made the field before the tourneys then shu is going but 3 bid stealers may have f'd that up
 
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Ha!
 
I agree SJU has looked the part more over the last couple weeks, but they also had a lot more to play for in that BET game. They knew they were playing for their lives while at the time SHU actually felt pretty safe. The desperation difference in that game was clear to anyone watching.

The part I have a problem with is if predictive metrics come into play. That would be like if the NBA selected the playoff field based on expected win % instead of actual win %.

I get it helps when comparing teams across conferences that are playing vastly different schedules, but these 2 teams played the same schedule over the past 3 months and one was definitively better than other other.
no one should feel safe, who said that...they were among the last 4-5 teams in, if thats how they felt shaheen should be fired
 
sju is 10-12 vs Q1/2, shu is 9-11

sju is 13-13 vs Q1/2/3, shu is 11-12 vs Q1/2/3

very small difference but thats how tight it is but also better metrics...sor is better than for shu 36 to sju 46
New Jersey getting shafted again!
 
There are more bid stealers this year than recent history, though, no? Those are additional teams that need to be fit into the seeding somewhere, and increased pressure at the bottom of the at large pool.

Going to be really tricky getting the seeding right from 9-12 with predictions.
looks like the bid stealers will go as 11s Oregon/NC State and consensus seems to be putting the play ins as 10s this year.
 
Plus one totally off resume and intangible point, is the committee likely to stick it to Tom Izzo? I doubt it, if anything they contort themselves to try and bend over backwards to ensure MSU is in. It’s not a measurable, it’s not on paper, it’s not a metric, it’s not part of this year’s resume, but it’s one hell of a human bias that easily pops into the heads of the committee. It’s like the evaluation is part MSU/part Izzo……I guarantee they don’t stick it to Izzo. Some of the other coaches and teams? Sure, why not. Plus, I think they’re slightly ahead of other bubble teams based upon resume and metrics, so I say there is zero chance Izzo is getting screwed over.
no...for one there isnt any coach or program favored...but there are biases that seep in and the committee is only human and are influenced. They have said they glance at the matrix just to see if they are doing something wildly offbase which IMO they should not be doing

i will be surprised if Michigan State misses though I could see a scenario...again its like a 95% rutgers in scenario. I think that 9-14 mark is questionable as is their sor and they seem to be missing a win that would lock them in

to me the Oklahoma 4-12 mark vs Q1 is concerning and that they only have 2 wins vs field...their sor is strong so a tough call....i want to make a bold call here but not sure if I will end up doing it.
 
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looking at some threads from the last 2 years....and again reminder to me, conference tourneys were not valued all that much for selection and seeding. Tend to forget that every year...see Penn State seeding last year as 10 despite making finals of big ten tourney and coming in probably as an 11 when conference tourney play began...Texas A&M was underseeded at 7 and made SEC final. Nevada lost their first MWC game and still made the tourney. NC State got wacked in the acc
If this bubble was last year, would our resume get us in?
 
nc state, oregon no

but dont understand your point, yes smaller leagues deserve representation.

Just wondering.
Mostly the concept of "bid stealers" of NC St and Oregon.
They are not smaller leagues and had 30 games to build a resume.
But then 4 games in March outweighs a other teams better 30 game resume.

Also, smaller leagues deserving representation is a matter of scale.
Does every league deserve representation?
CFB certainly doesn't think so.
 
Just wondering.
Mostly the concept of "bid stealers" of NC St and Oregon.
They are not smaller leagues and had 30 games to build a resume.
But then 4 games in March outweighs a other teams better 30 game resume.

Also, smaller leagues deserving representation is a matter of scale.
Does every league deserve representation?
CFB certainly doesn't think so.
Wait until next year when we have an 18 team league
 
The Indiana State argument is the dangerous place for any of these teams that were in and had bids stolen by NC State, Oregon and we haven't considered Temple, who could somehow steal another bid today.

Once you start comparing the Indiana State "story", the argument becomes less about resume and turns into the "participation trophy-NCAA", gets involved.

I won't be shocked at all if Indiana State gets in over a Seton Hall or St John's, because they'll clearly be able to justify it.
Temple can't steal a bid today. Neither team in the A10 final gets in with a loss.
 
Just wondering.
Mostly the concept of "bid stealers" of NC St and Oregon.
They are not smaller leagues and had 30 games to build a resume.
But then 4 games in March outweighs a other teams better 30 game resume.

Also, smaller leagues deserving representation is a matter of scale.
Does every league deserve representation?
CFB certainly doesn't think so.
because its been done this way for 30 plus years

college football is a poor comparison since smaller conferences schools have had decent success against majors
 
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crunching things down...i have seeded everyone through the 9 line

12 schools competing for 6 bids right now

Michigan State
Texas A&M
Colorado
Colorado State
Florida Atlantic
Oklahoma
Indiana State
Pittsburgh
Seton Hall
St Johns
Providence
Virginia
 
Good game on the upper west side.

Brown hanging around against Yale
 
What would RU’s record have to be
with this years schedule? They would have to beat Mississippi State and either Wake/Princeton and likely finished 11-9 in league so at least 21-10 or if they didnt beat Wake go 12-8 in league

for this year 21-10 heading into conference tourney play

this isnt kid stuff, you have to earn your way in because the Big 10 is an overrated conference with alot of bloat and its going to get worse from here
 
crunching things down...i have seeded everyone through the 9 line

12 schools competing for 6 bids right now

Michigan State
Texas A&M
Colorado
Colorado State
Florida Atlantic
Oklahoma
Indiana State
Pittsburgh
Seton Hall
St Johns
Providence
Virginia
I am down to 4 schools for one last bid...this will be the tough part for me

Virginia
Seton Hall
Oklahoma
Saint John's


they all would have been in the field if Oregon/NC State didnt win and FAU won the AAC tourney today
 
crunching things down...i have seeded everyone through the 9 line

12 schools competing for 6 bids right now

Michigan State
Texas A&M
Colorado
Colorado State
Florida Atlantic
Oklahoma
Indiana State
Pittsburgh
Seton Hall
St Johns
Providence
Virginia
Michigan State - In

Texas A&M - Out

Colorado - In

Colorado State - In

Florida Atlantic - In

Oklahoma - Out

Indiana State - In

Pittsburgh - Out

Seton Hall - Out

St Johns - In

Providence - Out

Virginia - Out
 
crunching things down...i have seeded everyone through the 9 line

12 schools competing for 6 bids right now

Michigan State
Texas A&M
Colorado
Colorado State
Florida Atlantic
Oklahoma
Indiana State
Pittsburgh
Seton Hall
St Johns
Providence
Virginia
My guess for the 6 would be mich st., ATM, Colorado, Colorado St. One of st John's/ seton hall and one of Pitt/ va. I could see Colorado getting screwed to get both acc teams in.
 
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I honestly believe the committee will twist themselves into pretzels to get both acc bubbles in. I also can't see them only giving the big east three bids when they were the second rated conference. While I would rather see anyone other than Pitt and Virginia make it I think they get the extra bid over a more deserving bubble.
 
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