Going to use a template I did from last year for this first view as suddenly Rutgers is making a charge at the soft underbelly of the bubble.
No...its not here yet. As you guys know I am just not a fan of early season bracketology. I know we are in the 2nd week of February but the selection show is a week later and not until St Patrick's Day for 2024. Still have a long way to go and I think bracketologists fall in love with certain schools and narratives and 8 conference gameleft for most schools. Things can change on a dime. Resumes still are not complete. There are just too many games to play. Seeding can be a nightmare at this time with schools tightly packed together. Remember last year RU had a resume that was good for a 7-8 seed at this point only to have the bottom fall out. Just going to try and give a rough outline here with respect to the contender for top seeds and my initial analysis will just focus on the contenders reminding everyone there are plenty of games to go which means there are tons of opportunities for some of the schools closer to the last in line to gather and collect quality wins while teams further up may stumble and not add much to their resume. Just a snapshot in time of what things look like today.
68 schools selected, 32 AQs (automatic qualifiers from conferences), 36 at larges
Here are the current AQs at this time...meaning if the field was selected today these teams would represent their conference since they are in first place. Its not a projection. Some do that or use highest NET. This is just who is in first today.
Let's touch on some stuff above....
Beyond the power 6, SAINT MARY'S (19-6) at 15 in the NET is basically a lock barring an implosion. After a abysmal 3-5 start, the Gaels have won 16 of 17. They have road wins at Gonzaga and Colorado State and picked up another quality win over New Mexico. GRAND CANYON (21-2) at 44 in the NET could also be an interesting at large contender if they do not win the WAC tourney. Yes 17 of their 21 wins are Q3/4 but there is a win over San Diego State and a close loss to South Carolina. Wins over San Fran/Liberty are decent for a midmajor. Their strength of record of 26 is outstanding. INDIANA STATE (21-3) would seem to be an outlier with their NET at 20 but might be following the same path to the tournament as Florida Atlantic did last season. Amassing 21 wins with 6 games to go, their strenth of record is an unbelievable 15. Yet digging deeper. Their only Q1 win was at Bradley. Just 1-3 in Q1 with double digit losses to Michigan State and Alabama. Their Q2 wins were Bradley, Drake, and No Iowa. Still their only loss besides those power 6 schools was at Drake. A regular season title with the NET in the top 30 would be hard to dismiss. UTAH STATE (18-4) in a very tight Mountain West race where 1 and half games seperates first from 7th. MWC likely to end up at least 4 and possibly 5. The Aggies certainly have an attractive profile. USU swept Boise, beat Colorado State and have some nifty Q2 wins over AQ projected UC Irvine and Akron. The 8-4 mark in Q1/2 very very fine.
Need to talk about RICHMOND in the Atlantic 10 and SOUTH FLORIDA in the AAC. Currently in first in their respective conferences, both are slotted for the autobid at the moment. Yet their at large hopes are not so hot. Richmond (17-6) at 70 in the NET and a win over Dayton in the 8th rated conference does have the better shot as they are 6-5 in Q1/2 but one win over Dayton does not make a resume. They will have to win as much as possible in their final 8 or take the league regular season title to have a real chance as at large on Selection Sunday. On the other hand, South Florida (17-5) at 103 in the NET have virtually no at large shot. The AAC has slipped to 10th in the conference rankings with the departure of Houston. FAU is the darling even if not in first and USF will get one shot at them. Yet a win there does not change the fact that their best wins are Memphis and North Texas and there are Q4 losses to Maine and Central Michigan to go along with a 335 non conference SOS.
Here are my projected one seeds: PURDUE, CONNECTICUT, HOUSTON, ARIZONA. I do think NORTH CAROLINA has an outside shot but those 4 are looking really solid right now.
So now getting to the at larges. ....36 at large bids available. Going to group them by catagory. For this week not going to get into nitty gritty details with them but look for that in the future.
MORTAL LOCKS (would take act of God to miss)
LOOKING LIKELY (have built strong profiles and only need to avoid implosion down the stretch...example Rutgers in 2023)
SAFE FOR NOW (have clearly seperated themselves from bubble but still need to maintain their dignity down the stretch)
ABOVE THE BUBBLE (would not catagorize them as bubble but that can change with losses down the stretch)
So that takes care of 25 of the 36 at larges that all are at least above the bubble...11 spots and there are 37 schools competing for them
BUBBLICIOUS (in order from safest to last in)
Just touch on some things.....
The Big East has 3 schools locked in the field but 6 schools competing on the bubble. They are not getting 9 bids and conventional wisdom is probably 5 with a very outside shot at 6. BUTLER has significantly increased their resume witn their win at Creighton last week and then followed it up by knocking off Providence at home. 3-7 in Q1/7-7 in Q1/2. Additionally a win at Marquette and very good non conference stuff winning over Texas Tech and Boise on a neutral cout. OOC SOS of 87 with overall 7 and SOR of 33. Navigating a rough 4 game stretch will be key: Marq/Creig at home and Nova/SHU on the road. PROVIDENCE is barely hanging on right now. Friars have lost 3 of 4 but just have not been able to have much success on the road this year. 4 very very good wins over Marquette, Wisconsin, Creighton and Butler. 3-6 in Q1/3-2 Q2. Unfortunately just 6-9 in Q1/2/3 and 9 wins in Q4. To stay in the field they will need to not just take care of business at home but pull off a win either at Marquette or a marquee home win over UConn
As usual the Mountain West is full of bubble schools and this year beyond the two most likely in the tourney already have 4 sitting on the bubble. Tops on the list is BOISE STATE (14-8) who had a bad week tumbling 14 spots in the NET to 48. In fairness losing on the road to Utah State and Colorado State isnt that bad at all. 5-6 Q1 is quite strong with wins over St Marys, at New Mexico, at Nevada, Colorado State and San Diego State. There are also wins over VCU/San Fran in Q2. There is good stuff here even though the net and sor at 56 doesnt like them. The SOS stuff at 14/28 is wonderful. The next 4 games are weak schools which provide only landmines so not much movement forward for opportunties until their gauntlet to finish the season vs Nevada, New Mexico and at San Diego State. The NET loves 18-5 NEW MEXICO ranking them a 22. Yet a peak onto their profile and one is left scratching their heads. They suffered a bad Q3 home loss to UNLV. I see the bracketologists are still playing recency bias and somehow have the Lobos at 7 or 8 on the Matrix. Lobos are only carrying home wins over San Diego State, Colorado State and Nevada. 2-2 in Q1 and 2-2 in Q2, going 6-1 in Q3 is likely while the NET is in love with them. yet that SOR of 59 might signal trouble ahead. Non conference sos just 266 includes a loss to St Marys and win over projected AQ UC Irvine. Very tough stretch ahead with trips to Nevada and San Diego State. Back home for Colorado State but also trips to Utah State and Boise loom.
NEBRASKA has the most Rutgersesque of years past profile. Huskers are unbeatable at home but cannot buy a conference road win to save their lives. 15-1 overall at home and just 1-7 on the road that sole win being Kansas State which was their only non conference win of note on a dreadful 328 OOC schedule. Super win over Purdue. Additional quality wins over Wisconsin, Michigan State and Northwestern give them 4 wins vs team projected in the field. In their favor is the Huskers have not lost outside Q1/2 going 6-8. Nebby has two red flags to overcome...they cant change the sos but they can win at least 2 of 3 road games vs weaker schools like Indiana, Ohio State and Michigan. The home slate is not that tough with Rutgers presenting the biggest challenge so no slip ups vs Penn State and Minnesota. Do note 3 Q2 and 3 Q3 games, none of these games will be considered wins to move the needle besides maybe RU. Somehow I feel the selection committee is destined to showcase them in the First Four when all is said and done.
TEXAS at 33 in the NET appear in good shape at the moment but face a brutal 4 game stretch that good make or break their season. 3 road games at Houston, at Kansas, at Texas Tech with a home game sandwiched in against Kansas State. Longhorns have proven their road mettle already with 3 Q1 road wins over Oklahoma, TCU and not in the field Cincinnati. I will say the selection committee really really loves road Quad 1 wins. A win at home over Baylor buoys their 4-5 Q1 mark which is only 1-2 in Q2 to put them 5-7 Q1/2
Just 3 true SEC bubble schools this year. FLORIDA up to 31 in the NET got their biggest win of the season Saturday vs Auburn. It was a desperately needed Q1 win to put their mark at 2-7 adding to their win at Kentucky. 3-0 shows wins over Mississippi State, AQ Richmond and bubble Pitt. The 7-0 mark in Q3 puts them 14-7 in Q1/2/3 and that is something the committee loves to see. SOS of 24/97 with no losses outside Q1. Issue is last 8 are full of landmines against sisters of SEC poor. There are 3 Q1 opportunities, 2 vs Alabama and one at South Carolina. Might need one of those to solidify their chances. MISSISSIPPI STATE up to 36 in the NET will need to take care of business in their next 3, 2 weak opponents and a home matchup with Ole Miss. Their last 4 feature potentially 4 Q1 games big risk/reward. Good profile....3-6 in Q1 and 3-0 in Q2 including 4 wins vs teams projected in the field: Tennessee/Auburn at home and non conference over Washington State/Northwestern. There are two unsightly losses one in Q3 to Ga Tech and the other a painful one point loss at home to AQ but Q4 Southern.
Pac 12 looking painfully weak this year. WASHINGTON STATE at 18-6 and 40 in the NET would appear to have the best shot at an large simply by virtue of their win over projected one seed Arizona. Its not an overwhelming profile in who they beat but metrics wise 4-3 Q1 and 4-2 in Q2 put them 8-5. Besides the Arizona win, there is Boise on the road and a split with bubble Utah. The rest of their wins even in Q1/2 are made of mediocre drek from the Pac 12. Non conference sos is trash at 301. Cougars finish with 5 of 7 at home and most of those games meaning 5 Q3 games so they will need to take care of business. UTAH has plummeted to 48 in the NET having lost 4 of their last 5 and now moving very close to the bubble mendoza line. Most egregious was the Q3 home loss on Saturday to an awful Arizona State. Utes are counting on the non conference wins over BYU and St Marys to carry them far. There is an additional win to Q1 but not projected in field bubble Wake. Did split with Washington State. Overall the SOS stuff helps at 20/27. Unfortunately 5 of their last 7 are on the road including 3 straight upcoming at USC/UCLA and bubble Colorado. I would be surprised they remain on the good side of the bubble.
Very rare to see GONZAGA landing right smack dab on the last spot in but here they are. In fact the Zags would clearly be out if not for their road win on Saturday at Kentucky. Just their first Q1 win of the season in 6 tries. Zags scheduled strong again reflected in the OOC SOS of 25 but couldnt come up with any wins this year vs the likes of Purdue, UConn, San Diego State, Washington in Quad 1. Turns out that wins vs USC/UCLA are only Q3 variety this year. Their only loss outside Q1 was a one point Q2 road loss to Santa Clara. Doesnt seem so bad but just riding 3-6 in Q1/2 is shaky. Cannot avoid any slips before finishing out on the road at San Fran/St Marys...do they have to beat the Gaels?
WRONG SIDE OF BUBBLE
I just want to get this up there now for some discussion. The bubble out list is in a rough pecking order. Some schools on the list have very fleeting chances and some do not even have quality wins and some with warts they will not overcome but I wanted to give an indication of where RU fits. Things are going to change ALOT with every game. Keep in mind the precarious projections of Richmond and USF as AQs, by the end of the week that could change and two more bubble spots open up
Ill be out for a bit so I will come back later to run some of the specifics of the bubble out schools tonight. Specific questions are more than welcome
Updated this later in thread toward the bottom of first page but wanted to include it here too...
No...its not here yet. As you guys know I am just not a fan of early season bracketology. I know we are in the 2nd week of February but the selection show is a week later and not until St Patrick's Day for 2024. Still have a long way to go and I think bracketologists fall in love with certain schools and narratives and 8 conference gameleft for most schools. Things can change on a dime. Resumes still are not complete. There are just too many games to play. Seeding can be a nightmare at this time with schools tightly packed together. Remember last year RU had a resume that was good for a 7-8 seed at this point only to have the bottom fall out. Just going to try and give a rough outline here with respect to the contender for top seeds and my initial analysis will just focus on the contenders reminding everyone there are plenty of games to go which means there are tons of opportunities for some of the schools closer to the last in line to gather and collect quality wins while teams further up may stumble and not add much to their resume. Just a snapshot in time of what things look like today.
68 schools selected, 32 AQs (automatic qualifiers from conferences), 36 at larges
Here are the current AQs at this time...meaning if the field was selected today these teams would represent their conference since they are in first place. Its not a projection. Some do that or use highest NET. This is just who is in first today.
- BIG 12: HOUSTON
- BIG 10: PURDUE
- SEC: SOUTH CAROLINA
- BIG EAST: CONNECTICUT
- MWC: UTAH STATE
- PAC 12: ARIZONA
- ACC: NORTH CAROLINA
- WCC: SAINT MARY'S
- AAC: SOUTH FLORIDA
- CUSA: LOUISIANA TECH
- WAC: GRAND CANYON
- A10: RICHMOND
- IVY: YALE
- SUN BELT: APPALACHIAN STATE
- MVC: INDIANA STATE
- BIG WEST: CAL IRVINE
- MAC: AKRON
- A SUN: LIBERTY
- BIG SKY: EASTERN WASHINGTON
- SOUTHERN: SAMFORD
- HORIZON: GREEN BAY
- MAAC: QUINNIPIAC
- SUMMIT: SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
- COASTAL: UNC WILMINGTON
- BIG SOUTH: HIGH POINT
- A EAST: VERMONT
- PATRIOT: COLGATE
- MEAC: NORFOLK STATE
- O VALLEY: MOREHEAD STATE
- SOUTHLAND: MC NEESE STATE
- SWAC: SOUTHERN
- NEC: CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE
Let's touch on some stuff above....
Beyond the power 6, SAINT MARY'S (19-6) at 15 in the NET is basically a lock barring an implosion. After a abysmal 3-5 start, the Gaels have won 16 of 17. They have road wins at Gonzaga and Colorado State and picked up another quality win over New Mexico. GRAND CANYON (21-2) at 44 in the NET could also be an interesting at large contender if they do not win the WAC tourney. Yes 17 of their 21 wins are Q3/4 but there is a win over San Diego State and a close loss to South Carolina. Wins over San Fran/Liberty are decent for a midmajor. Their strength of record of 26 is outstanding. INDIANA STATE (21-3) would seem to be an outlier with their NET at 20 but might be following the same path to the tournament as Florida Atlantic did last season. Amassing 21 wins with 6 games to go, their strenth of record is an unbelievable 15. Yet digging deeper. Their only Q1 win was at Bradley. Just 1-3 in Q1 with double digit losses to Michigan State and Alabama. Their Q2 wins were Bradley, Drake, and No Iowa. Still their only loss besides those power 6 schools was at Drake. A regular season title with the NET in the top 30 would be hard to dismiss. UTAH STATE (18-4) in a very tight Mountain West race where 1 and half games seperates first from 7th. MWC likely to end up at least 4 and possibly 5. The Aggies certainly have an attractive profile. USU swept Boise, beat Colorado State and have some nifty Q2 wins over AQ projected UC Irvine and Akron. The 8-4 mark in Q1/2 very very fine.
Need to talk about RICHMOND in the Atlantic 10 and SOUTH FLORIDA in the AAC. Currently in first in their respective conferences, both are slotted for the autobid at the moment. Yet their at large hopes are not so hot. Richmond (17-6) at 70 in the NET and a win over Dayton in the 8th rated conference does have the better shot as they are 6-5 in Q1/2 but one win over Dayton does not make a resume. They will have to win as much as possible in their final 8 or take the league regular season title to have a real chance as at large on Selection Sunday. On the other hand, South Florida (17-5) at 103 in the NET have virtually no at large shot. The AAC has slipped to 10th in the conference rankings with the departure of Houston. FAU is the darling even if not in first and USF will get one shot at them. Yet a win there does not change the fact that their best wins are Memphis and North Texas and there are Q4 losses to Maine and Central Michigan to go along with a 335 non conference SOS.
Here are my projected one seeds: PURDUE, CONNECTICUT, HOUSTON, ARIZONA. I do think NORTH CAROLINA has an outside shot but those 4 are looking really solid right now.
So now getting to the at larges. ....36 at large bids available. Going to group them by catagory. For this week not going to get into nitty gritty details with them but look for that in the future.
MORTAL LOCKS (would take act of God to miss)
- TENNESSEE
- MARQUETTE
- KANSAS
- BAYLOR
- IOWA STATE
- WISCONSIN
- ALABAMA
LOOKING LIKELY (have built strong profiles and only need to avoid implosion down the stretch...example Rutgers in 2023)
- AUBURN
- ILLINOIS
- DUKE
- CREIGHTON
- SAN DIEGO STATE
- CLEMSON
- KENTUCKY
- DAYTON
SAFE FOR NOW (have clearly seperated themselves from bubble but still need to maintain their dignity down the stretch)
- BYU
- COLORADO STATE
- TCU
- OKLAHOMA
- FLORIDA ATLANTIC
ABOVE THE BUBBLE (would not catagorize them as bubble but that can change with losses down the stretch)
- MICHIGAN STATE
- TEXAS A & M
- NORTHWESTERN
- TEXAS TECH
- VIRGINIA
So that takes care of 25 of the 36 at larges that all are at least above the bubble...11 spots and there are 37 schools competing for them
BUBBLICIOUS (in order from safest to last in)
- BUTLER
- BOISE STATE
- TEXAS
- NEBRASKA
- FLORIDA
- MISSISSIPPI STATE
- WASHINGTON STATE
- GONZAGA
- UTAH
- PROVIDENCE
- NEW MEXICO
Just touch on some things.....
The Big East has 3 schools locked in the field but 6 schools competing on the bubble. They are not getting 9 bids and conventional wisdom is probably 5 with a very outside shot at 6. BUTLER has significantly increased their resume witn their win at Creighton last week and then followed it up by knocking off Providence at home. 3-7 in Q1/7-7 in Q1/2. Additionally a win at Marquette and very good non conference stuff winning over Texas Tech and Boise on a neutral cout. OOC SOS of 87 with overall 7 and SOR of 33. Navigating a rough 4 game stretch will be key: Marq/Creig at home and Nova/SHU on the road. PROVIDENCE is barely hanging on right now. Friars have lost 3 of 4 but just have not been able to have much success on the road this year. 4 very very good wins over Marquette, Wisconsin, Creighton and Butler. 3-6 in Q1/3-2 Q2. Unfortunately just 6-9 in Q1/2/3 and 9 wins in Q4. To stay in the field they will need to not just take care of business at home but pull off a win either at Marquette or a marquee home win over UConn
As usual the Mountain West is full of bubble schools and this year beyond the two most likely in the tourney already have 4 sitting on the bubble. Tops on the list is BOISE STATE (14-8) who had a bad week tumbling 14 spots in the NET to 48. In fairness losing on the road to Utah State and Colorado State isnt that bad at all. 5-6 Q1 is quite strong with wins over St Marys, at New Mexico, at Nevada, Colorado State and San Diego State. There are also wins over VCU/San Fran in Q2. There is good stuff here even though the net and sor at 56 doesnt like them. The SOS stuff at 14/28 is wonderful. The next 4 games are weak schools which provide only landmines so not much movement forward for opportunties until their gauntlet to finish the season vs Nevada, New Mexico and at San Diego State. The NET loves 18-5 NEW MEXICO ranking them a 22. Yet a peak onto their profile and one is left scratching their heads. They suffered a bad Q3 home loss to UNLV. I see the bracketologists are still playing recency bias and somehow have the Lobos at 7 or 8 on the Matrix. Lobos are only carrying home wins over San Diego State, Colorado State and Nevada. 2-2 in Q1 and 2-2 in Q2, going 6-1 in Q3 is likely while the NET is in love with them. yet that SOR of 59 might signal trouble ahead. Non conference sos just 266 includes a loss to St Marys and win over projected AQ UC Irvine. Very tough stretch ahead with trips to Nevada and San Diego State. Back home for Colorado State but also trips to Utah State and Boise loom.
NEBRASKA has the most Rutgersesque of years past profile. Huskers are unbeatable at home but cannot buy a conference road win to save their lives. 15-1 overall at home and just 1-7 on the road that sole win being Kansas State which was their only non conference win of note on a dreadful 328 OOC schedule. Super win over Purdue. Additional quality wins over Wisconsin, Michigan State and Northwestern give them 4 wins vs team projected in the field. In their favor is the Huskers have not lost outside Q1/2 going 6-8. Nebby has two red flags to overcome...they cant change the sos but they can win at least 2 of 3 road games vs weaker schools like Indiana, Ohio State and Michigan. The home slate is not that tough with Rutgers presenting the biggest challenge so no slip ups vs Penn State and Minnesota. Do note 3 Q2 and 3 Q3 games, none of these games will be considered wins to move the needle besides maybe RU. Somehow I feel the selection committee is destined to showcase them in the First Four when all is said and done.
TEXAS at 33 in the NET appear in good shape at the moment but face a brutal 4 game stretch that good make or break their season. 3 road games at Houston, at Kansas, at Texas Tech with a home game sandwiched in against Kansas State. Longhorns have proven their road mettle already with 3 Q1 road wins over Oklahoma, TCU and not in the field Cincinnati. I will say the selection committee really really loves road Quad 1 wins. A win at home over Baylor buoys their 4-5 Q1 mark which is only 1-2 in Q2 to put them 5-7 Q1/2
Just 3 true SEC bubble schools this year. FLORIDA up to 31 in the NET got their biggest win of the season Saturday vs Auburn. It was a desperately needed Q1 win to put their mark at 2-7 adding to their win at Kentucky. 3-0 shows wins over Mississippi State, AQ Richmond and bubble Pitt. The 7-0 mark in Q3 puts them 14-7 in Q1/2/3 and that is something the committee loves to see. SOS of 24/97 with no losses outside Q1. Issue is last 8 are full of landmines against sisters of SEC poor. There are 3 Q1 opportunities, 2 vs Alabama and one at South Carolina. Might need one of those to solidify their chances. MISSISSIPPI STATE up to 36 in the NET will need to take care of business in their next 3, 2 weak opponents and a home matchup with Ole Miss. Their last 4 feature potentially 4 Q1 games big risk/reward. Good profile....3-6 in Q1 and 3-0 in Q2 including 4 wins vs teams projected in the field: Tennessee/Auburn at home and non conference over Washington State/Northwestern. There are two unsightly losses one in Q3 to Ga Tech and the other a painful one point loss at home to AQ but Q4 Southern.
Pac 12 looking painfully weak this year. WASHINGTON STATE at 18-6 and 40 in the NET would appear to have the best shot at an large simply by virtue of their win over projected one seed Arizona. Its not an overwhelming profile in who they beat but metrics wise 4-3 Q1 and 4-2 in Q2 put them 8-5. Besides the Arizona win, there is Boise on the road and a split with bubble Utah. The rest of their wins even in Q1/2 are made of mediocre drek from the Pac 12. Non conference sos is trash at 301. Cougars finish with 5 of 7 at home and most of those games meaning 5 Q3 games so they will need to take care of business. UTAH has plummeted to 48 in the NET having lost 4 of their last 5 and now moving very close to the bubble mendoza line. Most egregious was the Q3 home loss on Saturday to an awful Arizona State. Utes are counting on the non conference wins over BYU and St Marys to carry them far. There is an additional win to Q1 but not projected in field bubble Wake. Did split with Washington State. Overall the SOS stuff helps at 20/27. Unfortunately 5 of their last 7 are on the road including 3 straight upcoming at USC/UCLA and bubble Colorado. I would be surprised they remain on the good side of the bubble.
Very rare to see GONZAGA landing right smack dab on the last spot in but here they are. In fact the Zags would clearly be out if not for their road win on Saturday at Kentucky. Just their first Q1 win of the season in 6 tries. Zags scheduled strong again reflected in the OOC SOS of 25 but couldnt come up with any wins this year vs the likes of Purdue, UConn, San Diego State, Washington in Quad 1. Turns out that wins vs USC/UCLA are only Q3 variety this year. Their only loss outside Q1 was a one point Q2 road loss to Santa Clara. Doesnt seem so bad but just riding 3-6 in Q1/2 is shaky. Cannot avoid any slips before finishing out on the road at San Fran/St Marys...do they have to beat the Gaels?
WRONG SIDE OF BUBBLE
- CINCINNATI
- MISSISSIPPI
- NEVADA
- SETON HALL
- SAINT JOHN'S
- KANSAS STATE
- WAKE FOREST
- VILLANOVA
- XAVIER
- MEMPHIS
- CENTRAL FLORIDA
- VIRGINIA TECH
- RUTGERS
- WASHINGTON
- PRINCETON
- NORTH CAROLINA STATE
- MIAMI
- IOWA
- COLORADO
- OREGON
- MINNESOTA
- DRAKE
- VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH
- JAMES MADISON
- UNLV
- SMU
I just want to get this up there now for some discussion. The bubble out list is in a rough pecking order. Some schools on the list have very fleeting chances and some do not even have quality wins and some with warts they will not overcome but I wanted to give an indication of where RU fits. Things are going to change ALOT with every game. Keep in mind the precarious projections of Richmond and USF as AQs, by the end of the week that could change and two more bubble spots open up
Ill be out for a bit so I will come back later to run some of the specifics of the bubble out schools tonight. Specific questions are more than welcome
Updated this later in thread toward the bottom of first page but wanted to include it here too...
- CINCINNATI: Bearcats at 34 have the best NET of any team not currently projected in the field. Just 2-6 in Q1 and 2-1 in Q2. There are very good conference road wins at BYU and Texas Tech plus a home but this is simply not enough. Non conference stuff hurts...296 sos there with 8 win coming in Q4 and a loss to Q1 bubble Xavier. 5 Quad 1 opportunites await in the final 8. Unfortunately only one is at home vs Iowa State
- MISSISSIPPI: Most bracketologists have the Rebels in. I believe they are 9th seed on the matrix. I am not buying them with a NET of 58 despite the gaudy 18-5 mark. 13 of their 18 wins come from Q3/4 reflecting the stinky 321 SOS. Biggest wins was at Texas A&M plus there are two wins vs bubble in Florida and Mississippi State at home. Further down yes there are wins over Central Florida, Memphis and NC State all bubble teams but the Rebels are lacking something signature to vault them into the field. Big series of games coming up in their next 5. 3 Q1s, two of them on the road and a Q2 at home vs SEC leader South Carolina. A chance to make their case.
- NEVADA: Two big wins last week. One on the road at league leading Utah State and the other a win over San Diego State has the Wolfpack nudging the in line. There is good stuff here. 5-2 in Q1 is a big strength. Wins over Colorado State and non conference over TCU. Yet I do not think the MWC is getting 6. Tough for me to put them in over New Mexico was has better NET and also beat Nevada by 34 points. That one game likely pushing their overall NET down but there is also a 19 point neutral court loss to Drake and a loss at Wyoming. The non conference sos of 261 is somewhat sketchy. Rematch game upcoming with the Lobos could determine a switcheroo.
- SETON HALL: Pirates have played their way out of the field the last couple of weeks. Those wins over UConn and Marquette are certainly gold but a struggle at home vs lowly Georgetown followed up by a 26 point beatdown to bubble out Villanova has torpedoed their metrics. Down to 76 in the NET and 55 SOR. I know 4-5 in Q1 is strong with road wins at Butler and Providence giving them 4 wins vs schools in the field. Non conference play though a red flag with losses to Rutgers and USC dragging their profile down along with just being 7-9 in Q1/2/3. They do not have much margin for error to get back in the field. Likely have to sweep their home games while also pulling out a Quad 1 road game.
- SAINT JOHN'S: Loss total starting to get bulky for Pitino's crew now up to 10 as they have dropped 6 of their last 8. There 3 games vs dregs Gtown/De Paul left but the Johnnies will have to do signficant damage at Prov/But and home to SHU and Creighton if they want to dance. Just 2-7 in Q1. A better 5-2 in Q2 but their wins vs field are to Butler and barely in Utah/Providence. There is a sweep of Nova, split with Xavier and loss to SHU plus a home loss to awful Michigan.
- KANSAS STATE: Despite an overtime win over Kansas last week, the Wildcats are on an overall skid with 5 losses in their last 6 that has sunk their NET down to 77. 2-5 in Q1 also shows a home win vs Baylor. 4-3 in Q2 win includes a win at Providence, a win over Nova but a loss to Nebraska and Miami. A Q3 loss by USC and a straddling Q2/3 loss to Oklahoma State hurt. They have the good wins to get in but absolutely need to win more to boost their metrics up. The schedule looks downright brutal with 6 of their last 7 vs NCAA or bubble out schools.
- WAKE FOREST: Deacons have a 35 NET but there is no getting around that weak 0-3 Quad 1 mark which includes losses to Pitt and Utah. 5-4 in Q2 is more encouraging but homes wins over Florida and Virginia are not going to be enough to get them in given 11 of their 6 wins are from Q3/4. Two road games at Duke and Virginia loom plus a home tilt with Duke and a season finale vs Clemson are Q1 shots where they might have to win 3.
- VILLANOVA: A pretty scandolous profile that still cannot be dismissed. Net now up to 42 includes some outstanding OOC stuff with wins over North Carolina and Texas Tech. Add the Creighton win at home for a 3-6 Q1 mark. 3-2 in Q2 includes wins over Providence, Xavier and Memphis. SOS at 16/84 is very good. Now at a bulky 11 losses including 3 in Q3 alone to the likes of St Joes, Drexel and Penn. Warts will only be overcome if they can pretty much sweep the home games including Butler and Creighton and knock off Providence and SHU on the road.
- XAVIER: Muskateers in a similar boat. Very solid non conference performance not on the level of Nova's wins and also a couple of bad Q3 losses. Just 2-8 in Q1 includes a win over St Marys and at Providence. Some very good wins in Q2 over Cincy, Nova, St Johns and Butler. SOS a sparkling 2 with OOC at 29 will help. They will rue those Q3 losses to Oakland and Delaware though. 5 big games out of 7 loom where they probably have to win 4 of those in Q1/2 to sneak back in
- MEMPHIS: A hideous stretch with losses to Q4 Rice and AAC also rans UAB/Tulane ruined what was a very impressive at large profile. The Tigers did some awesome work in non conference play knocking off the likes of Texas A&M, Clemson and Virginia.. Thats reflected in the non conference sos of 60. The Q1 of 3-2 and Q2: 2-2 is decent enough for this league but now with a Q3 and a Q4 loss their NET has tumbled to 75. Remember FAU is likely a lock as an at large if they do not win the AAC tourney. The AAC will not be a three bid league but Memphis is very capable of not only making a late run and righting the ship but winning the AQ itself. Will have to earn a split with FAU to have a real shot.
- CENTRAL FLORIDA: Golden Knights may be teetering but they still have very good wins to point to including an unlikey one over Kansas. 3-6 in Q1, their only road win this year at Texas plus throw in a win over Oklahoma. In Q2 just 1-2 so Q1/2 of 4-8 does not cut it and not much help in Q3 at just 2-0. There is Quad 4 loss to Stetson. There is a dreadful 336 non conference ranking. Note losses to 4 bubble out schools Cincy, Kansas State, Miami and Ole Miss. UCF will have to make substantial noise vs Big 12 stalwarts (4 Q1 and 2 Q2 games) down the stretch and start stacking quality wins.
- VIRGINIA TECH: One could see a path for the Hokies but that was deflated quite a bit with a hideous Q3 loss at Notre Dame. While it was their first loss outside Q1/2, its now their 10th and there really is little margin of error at 13-10. The 3-7 Q1 mark is workable because it shows OOC wins over Iowa State and Boise State and a league win over Clemson. Yet in Q2 they are just 1-2 with win over NC State. SOS stuff working them at 34/40 but they will need to stack wins vs the likes of UNC, Virginia and Wake to make a reasonable case for an at large.
- RUTGERS: Somehow someway, the Scarlet Knights have emerged as the Zombie profile of 2024. The win over Wisconsin is their only one in Quad 1 (1-8) as their non conference win over SHU has slipped to Q2 for now. There is a solid Q2 win over Nebraska. Yet this profile is so incomplete. There is no denying that the introduction of Jeremiah Williams to this team has improved this team several rungs as they have run off 3 straight. Yet its resume is all about potential. It could work if....but that if has almost no margin of error. The Knights absolutely have to win at home over Northwesten to keep dreaming big dreams. They will need to stack Q3 home games vs mediocre Maryland, Michigan and likely Q3 by then Ohio State. RU will need to win at Minnesota and either Wisconin/Nebraska. No they do not have to win at Purdue but it would be nice. If the Knights can go 6-2 down the stretch it would put them at 19-12 with a NET somewhere maybe 60-65 and they will have a shot. On the bubble the selection committee will consider Jeremiah in the lineup for the last 11. Also do not forget the early season games so no Mag (Princeton/Wake) so that may be considered. I worry about the 2-10 possibility in Q1. It would be helped by a 7-1 in Q2 and 4-1 in Q3. That puts the 13-12 in Q1/2/3. The non conference sos will not be an issue because its around 163. They will have 5 road wins. So a few things that normally do not work in RU's favor are working in their favor. Long way to go. One game at a time.
- PRINCETON: As much as one wants to put Princeton in as an at large, its a longshot. They didnt play any Q1 games. Their best win a Q2 over a Rutgers team who wasnt very good when they played them. The St Joes loss particularly hurts because there is no shame in road Yale/Cornell losses. Tigers must run the table of their last 7 and see where the chips land if they cannot win the Ivy tourney but its still a longshot.
- NORTH CAROLINA STATE: 0-6 in Quad 1 is a non starter. 4-3 in Q2 but the only wins of note are Virginia and Wake and Miami. That will not cut it even if with no loss outside Q3. They will need to win at Clemson and take down one or both of UNC/Duke.
- COLORADO: The NET is 39 but this resume is brutal. 1-5 in Q1 sole win over Washington. 5-3 in Q2 better with wins over Washington State, Richmond, Oregon, Washington, Miami yet some low end Q2 losses to the likes of Cal and ASU. It is nice resume for the NIT.
- MIAMI: Canes sagging to 69 in the NET after throttling at Virginia. Played hard but came up short in huge missed opportunity for UNC. Yes they are 7-7 in Q1/2 but reality is they need much more than beating Clemson and sweeping Virginia Tech. The wins over UCF and Kansas State are nice but thats all they are. The Q4 loss to Louisville is inexcusable. Can they win at Clemson and beat Duke at home to make a push
- IOWA: Hawkeyes are hanging on by a claw. A dreadful 0-6 mark in Q1. Their only winsof note is Nebby and SHU in Q2 where they went 5-2. A brutal slate of games awaits including 3 Q1 road games and 2 Q1 homes. Can they win 4 of those and make up and entire resume
- WASHINGTON: Huskies taking on a lot of losses at 13-11. 1-5 in Q1 with a win over Gonzaga. Q2 sees a win over Utah and a 4-6 mark that just has too many losses. Will have to sweep the rest of the year including on the road at Arizona and Washington Stat to have a real case.
- OREGON: Sitting in 3rd in the Pac 12 and the NET is not all that bad at 61. However the bottom line is their only win of note is Washington State. Do not get fooled by the 2-4 Q1/3-3 Q2 because it consists of a bunch of no bodies. Will have to win out including winning at Arizona to have any realistic hope.
- MINNESOTA: Barring an unlikely late push, the Gophers flickering hopes may have been extinguished blowing a 20 point lead at Iowa. A missed opportunity for a much needed Q1 road win, UM is now 1-4 in Q1 the sole quality win there being Michigan State. A better 4-3 in Q2 shows wins over Nebraska and Northwestern. Tragically Minny did zilch out of the conference with the sos at 362 is the worst in the country. They couldnt be the only 2 ooc they schedule with pulses (San Fran/Mizzou) and 9 of their 15 wins are from Q4.
- DRAKE: Net at 51 and 8-5, playing second fiddle in MVC to Indiana State who they split with. Decent 3-1 in Quad 1 with the win over the Sycamores plus a big OOC win over bubble Nevada and a road win at Bradley. Q2 at 2-1 shows a win over MAC AQ Akron. Unfortunately the resume gets dinged by 3 Q3 losses. Will be a legit contender to win the MVC tourney.
- VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH: A 10 always tries to sneak in a 2nd bid but the Rams are the third team right now. A win over Dayton does not make a NCAA team. That is their only win in Q1 (1-3). 5-3 in Q2 shows wins over Samford and Richmond. The issue is the 2 Q4 losses to GW and Norfolk. Will have to win at Richmond and at Dayton to close the season for any hope.
- JAMES MADISON: 21-3 with a NET of 55 and a win over Michigan State and MAC leader Akron at least has them on the board. Still they got swept by league leader Appalachian State so I am not seeing it.
- UNLV: The NET is 87 and overall they are 11-9 but I am still see 4 Quad 1 wins here and they are impressive. Creighton, Boise State and New Mexico 2x. Yeah but 3 Q4 losses is a non starter. But what if they stack 4 more Q1 wins?
- SMU: Mustangs; NET is 43. 15 of their 16 wins are in Q3/4. If all you have is NET, you have nothing.
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