Okay let's get this thing started. Night owls come on in, grab your beverage of choice and some tacos and dive into bacatology. Early birds, see you in the morning. Bring coffee and donuts. Comments and questions are always welcome. Corrections are always helpful especially spelling. Tips are mandatory! See my amazon wishlist (wink)
There are 32 AQs (automatic qualifiers from each conference). * denotes projected AQ. There are 36 at large bids. I am projecting 12 at large locks leaving 24 available spots in the field. I am projecting 51 schools competing for those 24 open spots. Locks are all the way up through the five seeds.
ONE SEEDS
TWO SEEDS
THREE SEEDS
FOUR SEEDS
FIVE SEEDS
SIX SEEDS
(25) COLORADO STATE 18-6: Rams bounced back from a loss at San Diego State with a rousing 20 point win at home over then MWC leader Utah State. That gives them 4 in Q1 (4-5) and they are 4-0 in Q2 giving them an excellent 8-5 in Q1/2. Best win was the neutral site 21 point romp over Creighton. 5 wins vs teams in the field also include home wins over Boise State, San Diego State and New Mexico. Just one Q3 loss at Wyoming but that should not hurt them. Everything looks a go here with another one or two but do note the next two involve a tricky road trip to New Mexico/UNLV
(26) TEXAS TECH 18-7: Red Raiders 29 point home win a week ago at Kansas put them on the brink of clinching an at large spot. It was needed elixir to a resume that light on Q1/2 numbers and still shows 13 of 18 wins in Q3/4. Up to 4-6 in Q1 and just 1-1 in Q2. There are road wins here at Texas and Oklahoma and a home win vs BYU. Beyond that there is not much to see. Best OOC win was just Michigan and note losses to Butler and Villanova. The OOC SOS of 303 is poor. Still with a strong SOR of 22 and worst loss being to just out Cincinnati, its hard to imagine anything other than a total freefall knocking Tech out of the field. Schedule is favorable down the stretch with 3 home games vs TCU, Texas and Baylor and 3 Big 12 lessers on the road.
(58) SOUTH CAROLINA 21-5: In less than a week, the Cocks went from SEC projected AQ and talked about as surefire 4 seed in the NCAA top 16 reveal to a substantial drop in the pecking order and a wrecked NET. That is what happens when you get boatraced by 40 to Auburn and drop a home game to Q3 home game to LSU. Look SC still has alot going for them. 4 win vs teams in the field led by the unlikely road win at Tennessee. Home wins over Kentucky and Mississippi State and a sneaky good win over WAC AQ Grand Canyon on a neutral floor. 3-3 in Q and 4-0 in Q2 puts them at a solid 7-3 yet it almost speaks to their poor ooc scheduling which comes in at a woeful 282. 14 of their 21 wins coming in Q3/4 and now LSU loss joins an earlier Q3 Georgia home loss. Its stunning a team from the SEC with such a gaudy recrod would be so hated by the NET. SOR is at 15 so likely going to have to split the difference in the end when it comes to trying to seed them. Its boon or bust in the last 5 games...all of them Q1, what if the Cocks can only win of those? Might they slip toward the last 8 in line. They are not playing well so do not envy this schedule of at Ole Miss, at Texas A&M, Florida, Tennessee, at Mississppi State.
(10) BYU 18-7: The NET really really no I mean really loves the Cougars putting them at 10. The reality is much of that was built up by blowing out a bunch of Quad 4 schools by 35-40 points a game. BYU does have two very good wins....San Diego State OOC and Iowa State in the Big 12. Yet they only have 3 win vs teams in the field, Texas being the other. Interesting to note their losses to last 4 out Utah and Cincy. 12 of 18 wins are from Q3/4 so that 6-8 mark vs Q1/2 is a bit vulnerable. No bad losses but their non conference sos is a sketchy 287. Their SOR of 33 is a more appropriate ranking for them than the NET and by years end would not surprised to see them fall more to the 8-9 line or worse if they accrue losses like the one Saturday at Oklahoma State. There are some tough games to go too such as Baylor at Kansas, TCU, at Iowa State. Will be interesting to watch how they fare.
SEVEN SEEDS
(15) SAINT MARY'S* 20-6: I believe when the NET rankings first came out, I noted St Marys way down after their 3-5 start. Yeah that is right, the Gaels have won 19 of their last 20 and have some early season struggles. They already have a win at Gonzaga and have a rare edge over the Zags in the league standings projected as the WCC AQ heading into their traditional regular season finale. 4-2 in Quad 1 includes a non conference road win at Colorado State and home win over New Mexico. Pair that with the win over the Zags and that is 3 wins vs teams in feild. Still there are 2 Q2 home losses to Weber State and Missouri State and a Q2 loss to bubble Utah. Non conference SOS is strong 75 but do note their SOR at 55 may play a role in keeping their overall seeding down. The Gaels are not quite an at large lock yet but taking 2 of the last 4 down the stretch will be enough and Pepperdine/San Diego should be their tonic.
(20) MICHIGAN STATE 17-9: Sparty showing more consistency taking 5 of their last 6 with a relative soft (except for at Purdue) schedule to close out the season. Soaring up to 20 in the NET led by their fine 8-9 Q1/2 mark. Yes its only 3-7 in Q1 but that does include a win over Baylor OOC and Illinois in the Big 10. Surprisingly their only other win vs a team in the field is Butler. No bad losses here and very impressive sos stuff at 14 overall and 41 non conference. Sparty isnt in any real danger of missing the field but their seeding could be all over the place from as good as 6 to as low as 9. A win or two away from absolutely locking in.
(30) UTAH STATE 19-5: Aggies lose the MWC AQ to San Diego State following their aforementioned loss to Colorado State. While both the NET and SOR at 29 like them, They do lack the high profile wins compared to other MWC schools. Just 2-4 in Q1 shows wins over Colorado State and at Boise. They did end up sweeping Boise. Don't forget the sneaky good wins over MAC AQ Akron/WAC AQ Cal Irvine further down. 5-1 in Q2 looks strong but alot of very close wins vs mediocre teams such as Santa Clara, UNLV, San Fran. Last 5 only give them 2 Q1 opportunities but both at home vs San Diego State and New Mexico sandwiched around a bunch of MWC dregs. Pick up one of those Q1 and take care of business in the others and they should be in no question.
(28) FLORIDA 18-7: While there is nothing extraordinary about the Gators profile, it represents the nice clean profile that checks all the boxes the NCAA selection committee is looking for. Marquee win: Auburn. Quality road win: at Kentucky. Non conference stuff SOS at 97 and Q1 win over Pitt and Q2 over Richmond. No loss outside Q1 and an outstanding SOS of 17. There is an additional win over bubble in Mississippi State. There are 3 Q1 opportunities....2 vs Bama and one vs SC to add to their 6-7 Q1/2 mark. Likely all it will take is to keep the profile clean and avoid the notorious SEC landmines of Vandy 2x and Missouri.
EIGHT SEEDS
(29) FLORIDA ATLANTIC 20-6: Certainly the most maddening at large team in the field. At their best, the Owls can beat anyone (see their win over Arizona), at their worst they can struggle with inferior schools (see their losses to Bryant in Q3 and Florida Gulf Coast in Q4). The Owls are not in first place in the ACC having dropped games to Charlotte and UAB and most notably Sunday at AQ South Florida. Owls got down big and made a late furious rally to lose by 4. Obviously after their NCAA run to the Final 4 last season and non conference performance this year, its tough for FAU to go and keep their interest vs lesser night in and out. Still they get the benefit of the doubt for what they proved in an ooc sos ranked 49. The losses though may end up dinging their seeding a bit. Besides the neutral court win over projected one seed Arizona were other neutral site wins over Texas A&M, Butler, Va Tech and competitive loss to Illinois. 7-4 in Q1/2 is solid enough. . 2 games with Memphis, home to SMU/Tulane and a tricky trip to North Texas await. Getting 3 of those should be enough to secure an at large although they will still be the favorite AAC tourney time. However FAU should not want to f around and find out what happens if they start piling up more AAC losses
(36) TCU 18-7: Horned Frogs are only one of 3 schools to take down Houston. That feather in their cap win headlines a very solid profile which is 3-6 in Q1 and 3-1 in Q2. Do not forget an additional high end Q1 at Baylor. Other wins vs schools in the field were to Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Performance wise very good and the SOR is 23 but metric wise that 325 non conference schedule hurts. TCU lost to bubbles Nevada and Cincy and their best OOC win was just Q3 Arizona State. A very tricky end to the season with road trips to Texas Tech and BYU sandwiched around home tilts with Cincy and Baylor. A chance for them to shore up their resume or to move them to the last 8 line.
(39) OKLAHOMA 18-8: Sooners do have two high end home Q1 wins over BYU and Iowa State but after that its just a Q2 OOC win over Providence and an away win at last team out Cincy. That 3-7 mark in Q1 and 3-1 in Q2 puts them slightly behind TCU. Losers of 5 of 8 now, they likley are going to need to get an additional Q1 win down the stretch vs the likes of Houston, or on the road at Texas/Iowa State....if they cannot they too can see themselves slide down in the pecking order into a vulnerable position. The OOC sos at 286 is not a help but its still a clean profile with no loss outside Q1/2
(56) NORTHWESTERN 18-8: It's a shame that the metrics are dinging the Cats not only for that Quad 4 loss to Chicago State but also some closer than expected results in Quad 4. The chasm between their NET of 56 and BYU at 10 should not be because BYU handled Q4 better. You see that with their SOR of 25 compared to BYU's 33. The Cats have some outstanding stuff on the resume. 4-5 in Q1 and 5-2 in Q2 for a fine 9-7 mark. A big OOC win over Dayton. League wins over projected one seed Purdue, plus Illinois, Michigan State and Nebraska. Not quite as good on the road they did move that mark to 3-6 with a win at Indiana over the weekend. Of course the loss of Berry for this season not only may impact their performance but their seeding going forward so need to track that. They get 3 managable home games where they are 7-0 this season plus road trips to Michigan State and Maryland. Win 3 of those and the Cats will be no worse than the 8-9 line. Anything less and that is when questions start arising about the loss of Berry and just how far down do they slide in the pecking order
NINE SEEDS
(31) WASHINGTON STATE 20-6: How bad is the Pac 12 this year that besides Arizona in at a one seed that the only other league school projected in the field comes in as a 9 seed. Its becoming apparent that WSU has seperated themselves from the rest of the mediocrity of the league and look pretty solid for a bid heading down the stretch. Their resume is highlighted by a marquee take down over Arizona. There is a neutral site road win over Boise State. Splits with Utah and Colorado. Again not a flashy profile and just one "bad" loss to Santa Clara which is vascillating back and forth from Q2 to Q3. Did very well on the road in the Pac 12 going 5-3 including a Q1 win at Washington. Those Pac 12 schools may be inflated in the Quads but 4-3 Q1 and 8-5 Q2 are numbers that get noticed. SOR is a very good 32. Non conference was not challenging as reflected by the awful 302 ranking. A trip to the Arizona schools awaits followed up by 3 home games vs the likes of UCLA, USC and Washington to end the year so really they only have one shot at another move the needle victory. Its more a case of avoid more than one bad loss to the others.
(33) TEXAS 16-9: Longhorns are a bit vulnerable heading down the stretch. The 4-7 Quad 1 mark is solid but they are just 1-1 in Q2. They only have 3 wins vs teams in the field but NCAA likes Q1 road wins and the Horns have 3 over TCU and Oklahoma and second team out Cincy. Their best win of the year was the home win over Baylor. Beyond that though non conference play at 212 did not bear any fruit showing a low end Q2 win over LSU. There is a Q3 loss to West Virginia on the profile. The end to their Big 12 season is dicey...3 Q1 road games at Baylor, Kansas, and Texas Tech. 3 home game vs Kansas St, Ok St, and Oklahoma. For a team that has lost 4 of its last 6, its imperative that the Longhorns at minimum take care of business at home because if they cannot win on the road, a 2-4 finish putting them at 18-13 will makes these cattle with steers very sweaty come St Patricks Day selection sunday.
(41) VIRGINIA 20-6: Cavs were very fortunate to hold vs Wake over the weekend going 1-11 from the free throw line. Earlier in the week, UVA gave life to Pitt's NCAA hopes by dropping a home game to the Panthers. Just 2-3 in Q1 but both very good ones at Clemson and non conference over Florida. Q2 a better 5-3 includes that win over Wake and another important OOC win over Texas A&M. Further down there is a win over Va Tech and a split with NC State. There is a really awful looking 22 point road loss to Notre Dame and while the Memphis 23 point road loss is just Q1, it does give pause when evaluating their profile. SOR at 26 is a plus here. Unbelievably they are just a game out of first in the ACC but have yet to play either Duke or UNC. Those games are coming but first a dangerous game at Va Tech tonight where they probably need to keep some margin of error before the UNC/Duke tilts. EDIT so just saw that UVA was hammered by Va Tech by 34. That makes the third huge loss they have endured. Going to keep them on the 9 line for now but will have to see what the impact of this big loss does to their metrics. Looking like they need a win vs either UNC or Duke to make sure they are not sweating.
(43) BOISE STATE 15-8: The Broncs have some good stuff here but watch the bulkier loss total compared to other MVC bubbles. 5-5 in Q1 is excellent. A non conference win over St Marys and then in league wins over San Diego State, and Colorado State and road wins at New Mexico and Nevada. Perhaps a bit over OOC scheduling,which comes in a strong 26 they have losses to Washington State, Clemson, Butler and Va Tech. There is a Q3 home loss to UNLV. The possibility of 6 Mountain West schools making the dance has been much talked about. Broncs have 3 games against bottom feeders that they absolutely must take before finish with Q1/2 oppportunites vs New Mexico, Nevada, and at San Diego State where they probably will need one if not 2 of those to solidify their spot here away from the last 8 in.
TEN SEEDS
(45) TEXAS A & M 15-10: Aggies coming in hot with a 6-5 mark in Quad 1 led by home wins over Tennessee, Kentucky and Floriad. Strong overall and OOC scheduling ranked 11/22. A very good OOC neutral site win over Iowa State. But 2 of those Q1 wins were at distant bubbles SMU/Ohio State so that gives them just 4 wins over schools in the field The problem is this...just 2-1 in Q2 meaning the Aggies have an unsightly FOUR Quad 3 losses. Home losses to fading Memphis, mediocre LSU, bad Arkansas and an inexcusable loss at Vandy which luckily is not a Q4 loss. They folllowed that Vandy loss by being waxed at Alabama 100-75. Its the kind of Jekyll and Hyde profile you see every year. Which way do they go depends on absolutely not dropping games to SEC lessers Arky and Georgia and probably splitting their opportunities at Tennessee, SC, Miss State, Ole Miss. Never want to start putting up 13 regular season losses when you have a huge red flag like A&M does in Q3.
(57) BUTLER 15-10: Bulldogs win at Creighton a couple weeks back helped to push them into the field but as I warned a dangerous gauntlet of 6 brutal games would determine their fate. Thus far, Butler is struggling. No shame in losing to UConn, they followed it up with a home win over Providence but then dropped back to back home games vs Marquette and over the weekend to Creighton by 22. Still 2 more games to go and both on the road to Nova and SHU two teams on the last 4 in/last 4 out grouping. Dogs need to win one if not two to remain in the the field. Lesser games vs St Johns, at De Paul and Xavier await to end the year. The bulky loss total is the concern. Yes its a strong sos 7/86 but there are now 9 Q1 losses to 4 wins. Those road wins at Marquette/Creighton are fabulous as are the non conference wins over Texas Tech and Boise. Yet they sit at just 9-10 in Q1/2/3. Ive seen profiles with a very good wins like they have be left out because just simply too many losses. These next two are GINORMOUS.
(38) MISSISSIPPI STATE 17-8: Tigers averted disaster by squeezing by Quad 3 Arkansas at home over the weekend. Their numbers in Q1/2 are solid but not overwhelming at 3-6 in Q1 and 6-6 Q1/2. Two excellent wins at home vs Auburn and Tennessee and fine stuff OOC over Northwestern and Washington State. While this is usually enough to put a school over the top, its their slip ups to Q3 Georgia Tech and worst of all Q4 Southern that leave some doubt. That non conference sos of 220. A brutally tough end to the season is full of opportunity and danger. Ole Miss, at LSU, Kentucky, at Auburn, at Texas A&M, and SC. While avoiding a loss at LSU is the key, annexing at least 2 other wins is going to be mandatory for them to stay in the field.
(49) NEBRASKA 18-8: Huskers might have the most scandalous resume if they cannot win a damn road game in the Big 10. The 4 wins over Purdue, Michigan State Wisconsin, and Northwestern plus a decent road win at Kansas State would normally be enough to secure a bid. 3-6 in Q1 and 3-2 in Q2 is okay but not great. However Nebby has two red flags here. One is the non conference sos of 324. Yes the KSU win was a road win of quality but scheduling 7 Q4s and pointing to wins over the likes of Oregon State and Duquense does not cut the mustard. In addition that road mark of 1-7 is currently 0-7 in the Big 10. I do not want to go Jerry Palm on the Cornhuskers but these are major issues they must overcome. Their last 5 are full of landmines. There is only one Q1 in there and that is at Ohio State. Plus a road game at Indiana, home games to Rutgers and Minnesota and a season finale road game at Michigan. Husker can make it easy by winning all 5, they are probably alright if they go 4-1 winning 2 on the road. Yet if they only win one game on the road, AT BEST they will be in the first four and vulnerable to get a NCAA tourney snub.
ELEVEN SEEDS
(48) GRAND CANYON* 23-2: The Lopes are currently the projected AQ from the WAC. They will be a very very attractive mid major at large selection if they fail to win the WAC tourney. Just two losses this year, one vs South Carolina, the other at Seattle a Q2 game. Highlighting their resume is a dandy of a win over San Diego State, their sole Q1 win. There is another solid win in Q2 over San Fransisco. Yes I get that 20 of their 23 wins are in Q3/4 including a whopping 13 in Q4. Still if the Lopes can win out the regular season finishing 27-2 regular season this is exactly the type of mid major that the selection committee will love to take. Seeding at 11 now says alot. If they do not lose again, they have an outside shot at a 10.
(63) SETON HALL 17-9: Their metrics suck but it's their performance on the court that matters. The only Big East school to knock off Connecticut who now has likely moved to the #1 overall seed is a win that overflows with bounty. Add in another home win over a projected 2 see Marquette you will not find many if any schools with a pair of wins like that. Now 5-5 in Q1 with road wins at bubble in projected Providence (splitting games) and Butler. A rally on Sunday completed the sweep vs St Johns, not necessarily a win that moves the needle but a win to avoid a bad loss. The Pirates have two in Q3, one to Rutgers in a rivalry game and the other to USC in a neutral site game. In reality those are not necessarily THAT bad of losses. The issue is the Pirates have nothing to point to OOC with a bad Missouri team being their best OOC win. 8 wins alone in Q4 is a red flag and that 240 OOC SOS is not good. For the Pirates they have 4 tough games coming up...home to Butler, at Creighton, at UConn and home to Nova. They will need to navigate these 4 by winning 2. Beating Butler/Nova at home will go along way to securing their bid. Anything less and its going to be dicey as Nova makes a late push and the overall loss total of the Pirates comes into play.
(44) NEVADA 19-6: Wolfpack are getting harder to avoid. Yes that one loss to New Mexico by 34 sank their metrics but cannot deny that 5-4 Quad 1 mark. There are wins at Utah State plus home wins over San Diego State and Colorado State. OOC they shine with wins over TCU and at Washington. Just 1-1 in Q2 and there is a Q3 loss to Wyoming. Now having 8 wins in Q4 is a bit of negative and you see that non conference sos at 259 is below other MVC schools. Now what to make that they got swept by New Mexico another deep bubble, well head to head is not a criteria. Whether 6 schools make it from this league is much talked about. Boise, New Mexico and Nevada are the 3 closest to the mendoza line of the 6. Unfortunately for the Pack only 2 Q1 opportunities remain in the last 6 both on the road to Colorado State and Boise State. They would do themselves well to get one of those and take care of business vs some mediocrity they will face at home.
(24) NEW MEXICO 19-6: Lobos have some great metrics with the overall NET of 24 but strength of record tells a different tale at just 49. There is the sweep over Nevada and wins over San Diego State and Utah State but unlike the rest of the MVC, the Lobos with their OOC rank of 269 do not have ANY quality OOC wins to point to. Yes UC Irvine and La Tech are projected AQs but they are still Q3 home games. Its not going to cut it when a whopping 15 of their 19 wins are in Q3/4. 3-3 in Q1 and 1-2 in Q2 are weak numbers compared to the other MVC bubbles. There is a Q3 loss to UNLV at home. Despite the sweep of Nevada which includes a 34 point beatdown, would have to rate the Lobos a notch behind at this point and most likely to be the odd school out if they cannot annex some Q1 wins. 3 of them left with a home game vs Colorado State and road trips to Boise and Utah St
(59) PROVIDENCE 17-9: Friars hanging in but need to do more to stay in. Those wins at home over Creighton and Marquette are very very good. Unlike Seton Hall, PC can point to a non conference win over Wisconsin. Splitting with fellow bubblers SHU and Butler gives them 5 wins vs teams in the field. 4-6 in Q1 pretty good, 3-3 in Q2 for 7-9 not bad either. There are no bad losses on the resume. Here is the issue. Providence is 0-0 in Q3. Their Q1/2/3 mark of 7-9 is no bueno. A whopping 10 of their 17 wins are in Q4. The non conference sos is 241. This is the kind of red flag they must take care of before selection sunday so that means stacking alot of win in the last 5. Georgetown at home of course is mandatory but probably need 3 of 4 of at Xav/Marq and home to UConn/Nova. Cannot say I am confident the Friars can do this.
(23) GONZAGA 19-6: This year we may find out if the NCAA has some sort of inherent bias towards schools with historical NCAA performances. The NET is in love with them at 23 with the SOR not quite as good at 45. The Zags in a rare spot right smack on top of the bubble are hoping that the selection committee uses emotions over criteria. The Zags may yet get another quality win when they travel to St Mary's in the season finale but right now their profile consists of just a road win at Kentucky and then losing every other big OOC game. Losses to Purdue, UConn, San Diego State, Washington make up that 1-5 Q1 performance. In Q2 its only a little better at 2-1 with wins over Syracuse and San Fran and a loss to Santa Clara. The non conference sos is 24 but if you only one quality win to show for it, that might not get it done. 11 of their 19 wins coming from Q4 and 7 of them in WCC which seems down in quality especially now that BYU is gone. To remain in the field short of winning the WCC tourney, the Zags will likely need to win at both San Fransisco AND St Mary's.
TWELVE SEEDS
(46) DRAKE* 21-5: Indiana State's slide has moved the Bulldogs into a tie atop the MVC standings and a nod as the AQ. Drake may actually be the more attractive at large candidate going forward. 2-1 in Quad and 3-2 in Q1/2 shows a split with Indiana State but more importantly a nifty OOC win over Nevada that could come in handy. Unfortunately there are 3 Q3 losses that might ultimately doom them. Non conference sos of 281 does not help. Will absolutely have to win out and then reach the MVC finals to have a shot as an at large.
(92) SOUTH FLORIDA* 19-5: Bulls somehow find themselves in first place in the AAC. I know some bracketologist are stubborn about projecting them as AQ over FAU but good golly the Bulls win yesterday over the Owls should end that discussion. The real question is do they have any other path to the NCAA besides winning the AAC tourney and I would say no. The NET is just 92 with a SOR of 67. The win over FAU was their sole win or sole Q1 game for that matter. 3-3 in Q2 but wins vs Memphis, Fla State, and North Texas do not move needles. Note there is a 19 point Q2 loss to Hofstra but ultimately its the Q4 home losses to Maine and Central Michigan combined with the OOC SOS of 330 that make talk of USF as an at large a non starter
(52) MC NEESE STATE* 19-3: The Cowboys have risen in the NET to 52 and it is at least matched by a SOR of 51. If they can win out and make the conference final they could be considered. 1-1 in Q1 with a win over VCU, 2-2 in Q2 includes wins at UAB and Michigan. Yeah that Q4 loss to SE Louisiana might be the difference maker. 14 of their 19 wins are to Quad 4 schools yet their non conference sos is an intriguing 120
APPALACHIAN STATE*
THIRTEEN SEED
CORNELL*
SAMFORD*
UC IRVINE*
LOUISIANA TECH*
FOURTEEN SEEDS
AKRON*
MOREHEAD STATE*
VERMONT*
CHARLESTON*
FIFTHTEEN SEEDS
HIGH POINT *
EASTERN WASHINGTON*
OAKLAND
COLGATE
SIXTEEN SEEDS
SOUTHERN*
QUINNIPIAC*
EASTERN KENTUCKY*
MERRIMACK*
NORFOLK STATE*
NORTH DAKOTA*
BUBBLE OUT
(50) UTAH 16-10: Utes hung for a road Q2 win at UCLA. Yes those Pac 12 road games are inflated this year but its still counts as Q2 where they are now 8-9 in Q1/2. 3 Q1 wins show two very nice victories over St Mary's and BYU. The other a win over bubble wake. In Q2 there is a win over projected in Washington State. Its a little engine that could profile. A mixed bag of stuff. The sos is 33 overall with a fine 29 non conference. There is one blemish in Q3 to Arizona State, in fact the Sun Devils swept the Utes who also have losses to lower end Pac 12s like Stanford and USC. A profile like this can always be passed by a school doing more down the stretch. Two road games at Colorado and Oregon provide the only quality opportunities and even they are rather meh in the grand scheme of things.
(37) CINCINNATI 17-9: The NET loves the Bearcats a 37 and there are 3 standout wins here but the feeling is they need something more. 3-6 in Q1 including coveted Q1 road wins at BYU and Texas Tech. 2-2 in Q2 includes a win over TCU. The sweep of UCF one of them a Q1 for now seem to be carry less cache now. There is a Q3 loss at WVU and half of their 16 wins are coming from Quad 4. Non conference 305 is a red flag as the best non conference win was Eastern Washington. The good news is that they have 3 Q1 opportunities left...the bad news is that they are all on the road...at TCU, at Houston, at Oklahoma. Can they come up with 2 of those? The home games of WVU, KSU, Ok St are landmines not resume builders.
(65) MISSISSIPPI 19-6: Have not been enamored with the Rebels profile for a while now and the NET now is starting to agree with me as its down to 65. Such a contrast to their SOR at 21. 3-5 in Q1 and 2-1 in Q2 makes for 5-6. That means 14 of their 19 wins come from Q3/4 and that seems alot for a SEC school. Then we have the hideous 327 OOC SOS. There are 3 good wins here....Florida, Missisissippi State and at Texas A&M and remember its a clean profile with no losses outside of Q1/2 although LSU should not be considered a good loss. Let's see what they can do in final 6 with 4 of them opportunities vs the likes of at Miss State and SC/Bama/A&M all at home. I will say there is a large gap between the Rebels and the rest of the bubble list below them right now and I am not understating it....it is ginormous.
(35) VILLANOVA 14-11: The Wildcats certainly have the most outrageous resume on the bubble. 3 Q3 losses to medicority such as Penn, St Joes, and Drexel. Yet in contrast there are wins over North Carolina, at Creighton, and Texas Tech. Are you kidding me!!??? Add in wins over Providence and Seton Hall and Nova has 5 wins vs teams in the field and no one outside the field or even in the last 8 in have non conference wins as good as they do. How the committee will balance those quality wins with 3 Q3 losses. Note Nova also got swept by a fading St Johns and a loss to Kansas State. To have 6 questionable losses could be a bridge too far. 3-6 in Q1 and 5-2 in Q1/2 to make 8-8 is quite strong. SOS non conference a fine 85. The NET metrics love them at 35 but beware as the Strength of Record is a concerning 66. With 11 losses and 6 games left they are almost in a situation where even if they go 4-2 they could end up with an unwieldly 14 losses come selection sunday. Do they have to go 5-1 down the stretch. Its a tough ask..thee are road games at UConn, Providence and Seton Hall with home games vs Butler, Gtown, and Creighton. If they do go 5-1 they simply deserve it.
(40) WAKE FOREST 16-9: Deacons continue to hang around the last 4-6 out line but do not seem to be taking advantage of their NET metrics. Two missed opportunities for road wins last week, the first at Duke then a painful 2 point loss at UVA. The OOC win over Florida has now turned into a Q1 win, their first but that makes it 1-6. 4-3 in Q2 sees wins vs Virginia, Va Tech and NC State. Still no bad loss per se outside of Q2 but those losses to FSU, LSU and Georgia are not what the committee wants to see. The non conference sos of 242. does not instill confidence. Next two at home vs Pitt and Duke might be must wins at this point. Two games later at Va Tech and home to Clemson are other big opportunities to help the resume out.
(62) VIRGINIA TECH 15-11: Currently putting this together and just learned the Hokies got a rousing 75-41 win over Virginia. NET was at but figures to soar 5-10 spots after the win. Yes this improves a profile whose best work has been OOC. 2 very good neutral site non conference wins over Iowa State and Boise State. In league wins now over Clemson and Virginia. There is a barely Q1 win over NC State. Now 4-6 in Q1 and 1-3 in Q2..that 5-9 mark needs some work. The non conference sos of 44 very good but the 2 Q3 losses to Miami and at Notre Dame really hurt because that bulky loss total of 11 is likely to grow and while there are some good things here, it seems still short. The next 3 are not exactly marquee games but two of them are against direct bubble competitors in at Pitt, at Cuse, Wake. Likely need all 3 of these to vault in.
(47) PITTSBURGH 17-8: Panthers coming out of nowhere with their metrics taking off. Pitt had an unlikely road win at Duke back in January but seemed flukish with nothing to back it up. Well last week they followed it up with Q1 road wins at Virginia and NC State. Puts them at 3-4 in Q1 and while they are just 1-2 in Q2 that does include a win over bubble Wake. Winners of 5 in a row and 7 of their last 8 but still a couple of red flags here. That non conference sos of 347 with the best win being WVU and 2 Q3 losses to the likes of Mizzou and Syracuse (ok that one isnt terrible really). The profile seems willing and there are 3 games coming up where Pitt can make a statement...at Wake, Va Tech and Clemson. Take them all and they are in. Win 2 of 3 and they better make sure they win those last 3. Its doable.
(81) KANSAS STATE 15-10: Cats have dropped 6 of 7 and as of this writing look headed to another loss this time to Texas. Each loss is adding another lead sinker to their resume. Someone they eeked out a lone in over Kansas in this tough stretch but too much losing is negating that bounty of a win. 2-4 in Q1 and 4-5 in Q2, there is an additional quality win over Baylor. Two out of conference wins over Providence and Villanova are good to have. A home loss to bubble Nebraska, losses to Oklahoma State and Miami. Just too much losing and the metrics are cratering down to 81 in the NET. Games coming vs BYU, at Kansas and Iowa State will be their last chances at salvaging a bid.
(42) COLORADO 17-9: Quite honestly I am not a fan of this profile Yet at 42 in the NET from the Pac 12 with no loss outside Q1/2 its the type of profile that the selection committee seems to overvalue. I will show you where....Just 1-5 in Q1 over Washington bid deal but 6-4 in Q2 and the committee seems to eat up meaningless wins vs the like of mediocrity like Oregon, Washington, USC and Miami. Their two best wins are Washington State inn Q2 a tourney team and Richmond. Is this really a NCAA tourney team? They had lost 4 of 5 before rallying from down 20 to win at USC. Just a Q2 game vs Utah and Q1 at Oregon left. Those are not the kind of games that should move any needles. No I do not think they end up getting in but yes I think they will be given way more consideration than their resume deserves.
(89) RUTGERS 14-11: The Scarlet Knights 4 game win streak ended at Minnesota. Its just a Q2 loss for the Knights so it does not end their chances but it certainly narrows their margin of error. To even be in serious consideration, RU needs to win 5 of their last 6f. With a road trip to Purdue next up, its a tall ask for them to pull off an upset. Yet if they do it could vault the Knights all the way to the very cusp of the field. Without the win, it means the Knights must run the table on their last 5 which sees 3 doable home games vs Maryland, Michigan and Ohio State and two tough road games at Wisconsin and Nebraska. Currently the Knights in trouble with the metrics at 89 even SOR poor at 74, most likely due to some underperforming vs the likes of Stonehill and LIU two of the 15 worst schools in the nation according to the NET. Rutgers does have 4 wins vs schools in the field...Wisconsin, Nebraska, Northwestern and a looking better win at Seton Hall. Note losses to bubbles Mississippi State, Wake Forest, Iowa, Minnesota and Princeton. Knights simply have not won enough. The Q1 mark of 3-8 and Q2 of 3-2 puts them at 6-10 and they just have to do better. Non conference mark or road marks are not an issue unlike other years. This time simply not enough enough quality wins. Can they get 2-3 more down the stretch?
(32) INDIANA STATE 21-5: Sycamores may have potentially sank their season with back to back losses in MVC play, the most egregious of all a Q4 home loss to Illinois State. These are the type of losses that mid majors who do not have strong marks in Q1 and 2 simply cannot afford. While the NET didnt take that much of a hit down to 32 and SOR at 39, the fact is this profile really is living off of a split with AQ Drake and 2 wins over Bradley. 17 wins of the 21 are to Q3/4 and Toledo is the best ooc win. Yes they scheduled Alabama and Michigan State and that is reflected in an acceptable non conference sos of 165 but it just seems like one loss to many and perhaps a notch behind Drake when comparing resumes. We shall revisit if they win out and them make the MVC finals and without question they have the ability to win it. The Missouri Valley is currently the 9th ranked conference...that is better than both the WCC and AAC who are being touted as 2 bid leagues.
(67) IOWA 15-11: Hawkeyes did not have a Quad 1 win until they knocked off Wisconsin. So here Iowa arrives on the bubble list. I cannot say this is an impressive resume. There are additional wins vs tourney projected schools...Nebraska and Seton Hall. 1-7 in Q1, 5-3 Q2. That 6-10 mark is not good. There is a Q3 home loss to Michigan I bet they really want back. Opportunity certainly is there where they will have to do major damage on the road at Michigan State, at Illinois at Northwestern while holding serve at home vs Penn State and Illinois. For a team with just 2 road wins that is a real tough ask.
(86) MEMPHIS 18-8: Tigers are teetering on the edge and perhaps I am being a bit too generous with them. Their early season stuff was great. Non conference sos of 69 with wins over Clemson and Virginia at home. Texas A&M and VCU on the road. That was an impressive resume they took into AAC conference play. League play certainly started out alright as they won their first 4 but the Tigers hit a 4 game skid including the ultimate insult a Q4 home loss to lowly Rice. Losses to UAB and Tulane may qualify as Q2 but these are bad losses nonetheless. Tigers did hit a 3 game win streak but then dropped the last 2 and were absolutely embarrassed by SMU on Sunday 106-79. It seems as if all the good from non conference play has been negated and that shows in the NET down to 86 and even SOR is at 61. 3-3 in Q1 and 2-3 in Q2 does not seem that bad considering they are 7-1 in Q3 but I think the metrics here are a killer. 5 games left and 2 with FAU, they will need to win all of them to move back into any serious contention.
(75) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 16-9: Wolfpack put their hat in the ring with a win at Clemson. That was their first Q 1 win of the year (1-6). In Q2 they are just 3-3 making for a woeful 4-9, There are wins vs UVA and Wake there. No loss outside the top 2 Quads so that is a big plus. Yet I see 8 of 16 wins in Q4. Failed in all their non conference attempts vs the likes of BYU, Tennessee, and Ole Miss and you have to dig down to Q4 for their best OOC win of Tennessee Martin. Will need to take care of the dregs of the ACC before getting to final 3 of at UNC, Duke and at Pitt. Need to take 2 of these.
(71) VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH 17-8: It does seem like every year the A10 is able to slip a 2nd team in. Certainly both VCU and Richmond have every right to win the A10 tourney as both as taken down league leading Dayton. Dayton is VCU's sole Q1 win (1-3) and while the Q2 mark is 5-2 do the wins over Samford and Richmond move the needle that much. Note a loss to McNeese. More importantly are the losses in Q3/4. The Memphis loss at a time when the Tigers were well thought of is excusable but not the 2 Q4s to George Washington and Norfolk State. A bit more opportunity for them as road games loom at Richmond and Dayton. Win both of those and its a huge profile rise.
(73) RICHMOND 18-7: Spiders were knocked out of first in the A10 with a Q3 home loss to UMass. Exact numbers to VCU with 1-3 in Q1 and 5-2 in Q2 with the highlight the win over Dayton. Difference is that VCU owns a win over Richmond but Richmond will hot the rubber match. A win over UNLV in Q2 is nice but does not move any needles. An additonal Q3 loss to Wichita State drags the profile down. Again only hope is to run the table in last 6 and reach A10 finals.
(77) MINNESOTA 16-9: Look the Gophers are having a nice season and the 16-9 mark certainly looks good but there are 362 schools in D1 and the Gophers non conference sos is rated 361! 9 of their 16 wins are in Q4 where their best win....wait for it...was Maine. They have a Quad 3 loss to awful Missouri. They are just 1-5 in Q1 and a better 5-3 in Q2. League wins over Michigan State, Nebraska and Northwestern all tourney projected teams. Can they win out their last 6 or at worst 5-1 which would include winning at Illinois, Nebraska, and Northwestern...good luck.
(64) OHIO STATE 15-11: Don't laugh but suddenly the Buckeyes have the two best combo of wins of the year. Many forget way back, OSU pulled off a neutral court win over Alabama. The sputtering Buckeyes just added to that with a win over #2 Purdue. Unfortunately for them those 2 wins are the only in Q1 now 2-6 and it does not get much better in Q2 at 1-4 so the 3-10 Q1/2 mark is a non starter for an at large. They are just 5-10 in the Big 10 and we are talking a situation where they will have to win their last 5 to even remain on this list. 2 road games upcoming at Minnesota and Michigan State plus the season finale at Rutgers sandwiched around home games with Nebraska and Michigan. Oh by the way OSU is 0-7 on the road this season. Would have to conjure up their zombie run in the Big 10 tourney last year.
(53) PRINCETON 17-3: The Tigers run aside from a year ago, its hard to make a case for them based only on Q2 wins over Rutgers and Duquense. The fact of the matter is the Ivies just do not schedule tough enough. Princeton at 209 with zero Q1 wins. The loss to St Joes also in play here perhaps if they did not lose that one. Certainly if they win out and make the Ivy finals, they will be on the board to be considered but there are other similar resumes from lower mid majors that have Q1 wins like James Madison, Grand Canyon, Drake, and McNeese State so why Princeton.
(90) SYRACUSE 15-10: Orange only here because they got a fluke win at UNC and at the same time a school they swept, Pitt is starting to make a late run. Otherwise the Orange at just 2-7 in Q1 and 3-1 in Q2 just do not have the stuff currently to seriously consider, especially considering they followed up the UNC win an ugly Q3 road loss to Georgia Tech. If they can close out by winning their last 5 which would include road game at NC State, Clemson and a home game vs Va Tech then maybe we can talk.
(68) CENTRAL FLORIDA 13-11: Losers of 5 of their last 6, the Golden Knights hopes are flickering. Perhaps only still here because there are opportunity games with 3 Quad 1 home games vs Houston, Iowa State and Texas Tech plus a Q1 road game at TCU. That would be quite the turnaround for a profile taking on water. The wins over Kansas, at Texas, Oklahoma were nice starters but simply not enough given their bulky loss total, their tragic non conference sos of 341 and a Quad 4 loss to Stetson.
(51) ST JOHN'S 14-12: Jonnnies were not far from creeping to the last 4 out line but yesterday's collapse vs Seton Hall was pretty devastating to their hopes. That bulky loss total at 12 is becoming too much to ignore. There are some nice wins here...Utah OOC, Butler, Providence, a sweep vs last 4 out Nova but there simply is not enough here to make a case for a 13-14 loss team. 2-9 in Q1 but an unsightly 9-12 in Q1/2/3. 3 of their last 5 include Gtown 2x and De Paul so those games really do not help. They will have to beat Creighton at home and win at Butler for them to remain in any contention. Remember they have now lost 8 of their last 10.
(55) JAMES MADISON 23-3: Ran through OOC play with a 12-0 mark including a feather in their cap road win at Michigan State. Note a win a couple weeks back vs MAC AQ Akron. Unfortunately the Dukes find themselves in a tie for 2nd behind Appalachian State in the Sunbelt who they were swept by. There is an additional loss in Q3 to Southern Miss and maybe that is the killer. 17 of 23 wins in Q4 is a tough sell. If they win out and then reach the finals they will get some consideration but how much can that Michigan State win give? Might as well just win the Sunbelt tourney which of course they can.
(68) OREGON 17-8: Don't think a road win over Washington State makes a tourney resume. Yes they are 9-5 in the Pac 12 but is that really worth anything? 5-7 in Q1/2 with 2 of those wins to Washington. Got boatraced by Syracuse, have a Q3 loss to Santa Clara and best OOC win was just Michigan.
(79) MIAMI 15-11: Might be too far gone for the Canes after dropping 5 of their last 6. I suppose with an upcoming game vs Duke and a trip to UNC, wins in both could resuscitate their chances. Currently one win over a team in field...Clemson. Do not get fooled with the 7-9 Q1/2 mark which includes some beyond last 4 out bubbles Pitt, Va Tech, Kansas State and UCF. There is a Q4 home loss to Louisville on the profile.
(72) WASHINGTON 14-12: Mulcahy's minions are the longest of longshots now after dropping to 14-12 with a hideous Q3 home loss to Cal. Before that UW had not lose to anyone outside Q1/2. It's apparent their resume is taking on too much water to help their already shaky profile which only shows wins vs last in and last out Gonzaga and Utah to point too. 1-5 Q1 and 5-11 Q1/2 just does not cut it. There is a trip to Arizona so I suppose......
(34) SMU 18-7: It has been said if you just have NET you have nothing. The Mustangs have nothing. 0-2 in Q1 and 2-4 Q2 but those wins are sub 500 Florida State and Tulane. 16 wins out of 18 are to Q3/4. Even their best win of the season a blowout over Memphis was just a Q3 home game. Next two are at FAU and at South Florida so they have this week to make a resume.
FIRST 4 BYES: BUTLER, MISSISSIPPI STATE, NEBRASKA, SETON HALL
LAST 4 IN: GONZAGA, PROVIDENCE, NEW MEXICO, NEVADA
FIRST 4 OUT: UTAH, CINCINNATI, MISSISSIPPI, VILLANOVA
NEXT 4 OUT: WAKE FOREST, VIRGINIA TECH, PITTSBURGH, KANSAS STATE
ON DECK: COLORADO, RUTGERS, INDIANA STATE, IOWA
There are 32 AQs (automatic qualifiers from each conference). * denotes projected AQ. There are 36 at large bids. I am projecting 12 at large locks leaving 24 available spots in the field. I am projecting 51 schools competing for those 24 open spots. Locks are all the way up through the five seeds.
ONE SEEDS
- CONNECTICUT*
- PURDUE*
- HOUSTON*
- ARIZONA*
TWO SEEDS
- NORTH CAROLINA*
- TENNESSEE
- KANSAS
- MARQUETTE
THREE SEEDS
- IOWA STATE
- BAYLOR
- ALABAMA*
- DUKE
FOUR SEEDS
- AUBURN
- ILLINOIS
- SAN DIEGO STATE*
- WISCONSIN
FIVE SEEDS
- DAYTON*
- CREIGHTON
- CLEMSON
- KENTUCKY
SIX SEEDS
(25) COLORADO STATE 18-6: Rams bounced back from a loss at San Diego State with a rousing 20 point win at home over then MWC leader Utah State. That gives them 4 in Q1 (4-5) and they are 4-0 in Q2 giving them an excellent 8-5 in Q1/2. Best win was the neutral site 21 point romp over Creighton. 5 wins vs teams in the field also include home wins over Boise State, San Diego State and New Mexico. Just one Q3 loss at Wyoming but that should not hurt them. Everything looks a go here with another one or two but do note the next two involve a tricky road trip to New Mexico/UNLV
(26) TEXAS TECH 18-7: Red Raiders 29 point home win a week ago at Kansas put them on the brink of clinching an at large spot. It was needed elixir to a resume that light on Q1/2 numbers and still shows 13 of 18 wins in Q3/4. Up to 4-6 in Q1 and just 1-1 in Q2. There are road wins here at Texas and Oklahoma and a home win vs BYU. Beyond that there is not much to see. Best OOC win was just Michigan and note losses to Butler and Villanova. The OOC SOS of 303 is poor. Still with a strong SOR of 22 and worst loss being to just out Cincinnati, its hard to imagine anything other than a total freefall knocking Tech out of the field. Schedule is favorable down the stretch with 3 home games vs TCU, Texas and Baylor and 3 Big 12 lessers on the road.
(58) SOUTH CAROLINA 21-5: In less than a week, the Cocks went from SEC projected AQ and talked about as surefire 4 seed in the NCAA top 16 reveal to a substantial drop in the pecking order and a wrecked NET. That is what happens when you get boatraced by 40 to Auburn and drop a home game to Q3 home game to LSU. Look SC still has alot going for them. 4 win vs teams in the field led by the unlikely road win at Tennessee. Home wins over Kentucky and Mississippi State and a sneaky good win over WAC AQ Grand Canyon on a neutral floor. 3-3 in Q and 4-0 in Q2 puts them at a solid 7-3 yet it almost speaks to their poor ooc scheduling which comes in at a woeful 282. 14 of their 21 wins coming in Q3/4 and now LSU loss joins an earlier Q3 Georgia home loss. Its stunning a team from the SEC with such a gaudy recrod would be so hated by the NET. SOR is at 15 so likely going to have to split the difference in the end when it comes to trying to seed them. Its boon or bust in the last 5 games...all of them Q1, what if the Cocks can only win of those? Might they slip toward the last 8 in line. They are not playing well so do not envy this schedule of at Ole Miss, at Texas A&M, Florida, Tennessee, at Mississppi State.
(10) BYU 18-7: The NET really really no I mean really loves the Cougars putting them at 10. The reality is much of that was built up by blowing out a bunch of Quad 4 schools by 35-40 points a game. BYU does have two very good wins....San Diego State OOC and Iowa State in the Big 12. Yet they only have 3 win vs teams in the field, Texas being the other. Interesting to note their losses to last 4 out Utah and Cincy. 12 of 18 wins are from Q3/4 so that 6-8 mark vs Q1/2 is a bit vulnerable. No bad losses but their non conference sos is a sketchy 287. Their SOR of 33 is a more appropriate ranking for them than the NET and by years end would not surprised to see them fall more to the 8-9 line or worse if they accrue losses like the one Saturday at Oklahoma State. There are some tough games to go too such as Baylor at Kansas, TCU, at Iowa State. Will be interesting to watch how they fare.
SEVEN SEEDS
(15) SAINT MARY'S* 20-6: I believe when the NET rankings first came out, I noted St Marys way down after their 3-5 start. Yeah that is right, the Gaels have won 19 of their last 20 and have some early season struggles. They already have a win at Gonzaga and have a rare edge over the Zags in the league standings projected as the WCC AQ heading into their traditional regular season finale. 4-2 in Quad 1 includes a non conference road win at Colorado State and home win over New Mexico. Pair that with the win over the Zags and that is 3 wins vs teams in feild. Still there are 2 Q2 home losses to Weber State and Missouri State and a Q2 loss to bubble Utah. Non conference SOS is strong 75 but do note their SOR at 55 may play a role in keeping their overall seeding down. The Gaels are not quite an at large lock yet but taking 2 of the last 4 down the stretch will be enough and Pepperdine/San Diego should be their tonic.
(20) MICHIGAN STATE 17-9: Sparty showing more consistency taking 5 of their last 6 with a relative soft (except for at Purdue) schedule to close out the season. Soaring up to 20 in the NET led by their fine 8-9 Q1/2 mark. Yes its only 3-7 in Q1 but that does include a win over Baylor OOC and Illinois in the Big 10. Surprisingly their only other win vs a team in the field is Butler. No bad losses here and very impressive sos stuff at 14 overall and 41 non conference. Sparty isnt in any real danger of missing the field but their seeding could be all over the place from as good as 6 to as low as 9. A win or two away from absolutely locking in.
(30) UTAH STATE 19-5: Aggies lose the MWC AQ to San Diego State following their aforementioned loss to Colorado State. While both the NET and SOR at 29 like them, They do lack the high profile wins compared to other MWC schools. Just 2-4 in Q1 shows wins over Colorado State and at Boise. They did end up sweeping Boise. Don't forget the sneaky good wins over MAC AQ Akron/WAC AQ Cal Irvine further down. 5-1 in Q2 looks strong but alot of very close wins vs mediocre teams such as Santa Clara, UNLV, San Fran. Last 5 only give them 2 Q1 opportunities but both at home vs San Diego State and New Mexico sandwiched around a bunch of MWC dregs. Pick up one of those Q1 and take care of business in the others and they should be in no question.
(28) FLORIDA 18-7: While there is nothing extraordinary about the Gators profile, it represents the nice clean profile that checks all the boxes the NCAA selection committee is looking for. Marquee win: Auburn. Quality road win: at Kentucky. Non conference stuff SOS at 97 and Q1 win over Pitt and Q2 over Richmond. No loss outside Q1 and an outstanding SOS of 17. There is an additional win over bubble in Mississippi State. There are 3 Q1 opportunities....2 vs Bama and one vs SC to add to their 6-7 Q1/2 mark. Likely all it will take is to keep the profile clean and avoid the notorious SEC landmines of Vandy 2x and Missouri.
EIGHT SEEDS
(29) FLORIDA ATLANTIC 20-6: Certainly the most maddening at large team in the field. At their best, the Owls can beat anyone (see their win over Arizona), at their worst they can struggle with inferior schools (see their losses to Bryant in Q3 and Florida Gulf Coast in Q4). The Owls are not in first place in the ACC having dropped games to Charlotte and UAB and most notably Sunday at AQ South Florida. Owls got down big and made a late furious rally to lose by 4. Obviously after their NCAA run to the Final 4 last season and non conference performance this year, its tough for FAU to go and keep their interest vs lesser night in and out. Still they get the benefit of the doubt for what they proved in an ooc sos ranked 49. The losses though may end up dinging their seeding a bit. Besides the neutral court win over projected one seed Arizona were other neutral site wins over Texas A&M, Butler, Va Tech and competitive loss to Illinois. 7-4 in Q1/2 is solid enough. . 2 games with Memphis, home to SMU/Tulane and a tricky trip to North Texas await. Getting 3 of those should be enough to secure an at large although they will still be the favorite AAC tourney time. However FAU should not want to f around and find out what happens if they start piling up more AAC losses
(36) TCU 18-7: Horned Frogs are only one of 3 schools to take down Houston. That feather in their cap win headlines a very solid profile which is 3-6 in Q1 and 3-1 in Q2. Do not forget an additional high end Q1 at Baylor. Other wins vs schools in the field were to Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Performance wise very good and the SOR is 23 but metric wise that 325 non conference schedule hurts. TCU lost to bubbles Nevada and Cincy and their best OOC win was just Q3 Arizona State. A very tricky end to the season with road trips to Texas Tech and BYU sandwiched around home tilts with Cincy and Baylor. A chance for them to shore up their resume or to move them to the last 8 line.
(39) OKLAHOMA 18-8: Sooners do have two high end home Q1 wins over BYU and Iowa State but after that its just a Q2 OOC win over Providence and an away win at last team out Cincy. That 3-7 mark in Q1 and 3-1 in Q2 puts them slightly behind TCU. Losers of 5 of 8 now, they likley are going to need to get an additional Q1 win down the stretch vs the likes of Houston, or on the road at Texas/Iowa State....if they cannot they too can see themselves slide down in the pecking order into a vulnerable position. The OOC sos at 286 is not a help but its still a clean profile with no loss outside Q1/2
(56) NORTHWESTERN 18-8: It's a shame that the metrics are dinging the Cats not only for that Quad 4 loss to Chicago State but also some closer than expected results in Quad 4. The chasm between their NET of 56 and BYU at 10 should not be because BYU handled Q4 better. You see that with their SOR of 25 compared to BYU's 33. The Cats have some outstanding stuff on the resume. 4-5 in Q1 and 5-2 in Q2 for a fine 9-7 mark. A big OOC win over Dayton. League wins over projected one seed Purdue, plus Illinois, Michigan State and Nebraska. Not quite as good on the road they did move that mark to 3-6 with a win at Indiana over the weekend. Of course the loss of Berry for this season not only may impact their performance but their seeding going forward so need to track that. They get 3 managable home games where they are 7-0 this season plus road trips to Michigan State and Maryland. Win 3 of those and the Cats will be no worse than the 8-9 line. Anything less and that is when questions start arising about the loss of Berry and just how far down do they slide in the pecking order
NINE SEEDS
(31) WASHINGTON STATE 20-6: How bad is the Pac 12 this year that besides Arizona in at a one seed that the only other league school projected in the field comes in as a 9 seed. Its becoming apparent that WSU has seperated themselves from the rest of the mediocrity of the league and look pretty solid for a bid heading down the stretch. Their resume is highlighted by a marquee take down over Arizona. There is a neutral site road win over Boise State. Splits with Utah and Colorado. Again not a flashy profile and just one "bad" loss to Santa Clara which is vascillating back and forth from Q2 to Q3. Did very well on the road in the Pac 12 going 5-3 including a Q1 win at Washington. Those Pac 12 schools may be inflated in the Quads but 4-3 Q1 and 8-5 Q2 are numbers that get noticed. SOR is a very good 32. Non conference was not challenging as reflected by the awful 302 ranking. A trip to the Arizona schools awaits followed up by 3 home games vs the likes of UCLA, USC and Washington to end the year so really they only have one shot at another move the needle victory. Its more a case of avoid more than one bad loss to the others.
(33) TEXAS 16-9: Longhorns are a bit vulnerable heading down the stretch. The 4-7 Quad 1 mark is solid but they are just 1-1 in Q2. They only have 3 wins vs teams in the field but NCAA likes Q1 road wins and the Horns have 3 over TCU and Oklahoma and second team out Cincy. Their best win of the year was the home win over Baylor. Beyond that though non conference play at 212 did not bear any fruit showing a low end Q2 win over LSU. There is a Q3 loss to West Virginia on the profile. The end to their Big 12 season is dicey...3 Q1 road games at Baylor, Kansas, and Texas Tech. 3 home game vs Kansas St, Ok St, and Oklahoma. For a team that has lost 4 of its last 6, its imperative that the Longhorns at minimum take care of business at home because if they cannot win on the road, a 2-4 finish putting them at 18-13 will makes these cattle with steers very sweaty come St Patricks Day selection sunday.
(41) VIRGINIA 20-6: Cavs were very fortunate to hold vs Wake over the weekend going 1-11 from the free throw line. Earlier in the week, UVA gave life to Pitt's NCAA hopes by dropping a home game to the Panthers. Just 2-3 in Q1 but both very good ones at Clemson and non conference over Florida. Q2 a better 5-3 includes that win over Wake and another important OOC win over Texas A&M. Further down there is a win over Va Tech and a split with NC State. There is a really awful looking 22 point road loss to Notre Dame and while the Memphis 23 point road loss is just Q1, it does give pause when evaluating their profile. SOR at 26 is a plus here. Unbelievably they are just a game out of first in the ACC but have yet to play either Duke or UNC. Those games are coming but first a dangerous game at Va Tech tonight where they probably need to keep some margin of error before the UNC/Duke tilts. EDIT so just saw that UVA was hammered by Va Tech by 34. That makes the third huge loss they have endured. Going to keep them on the 9 line for now but will have to see what the impact of this big loss does to their metrics. Looking like they need a win vs either UNC or Duke to make sure they are not sweating.
(43) BOISE STATE 15-8: The Broncs have some good stuff here but watch the bulkier loss total compared to other MVC bubbles. 5-5 in Q1 is excellent. A non conference win over St Marys and then in league wins over San Diego State, and Colorado State and road wins at New Mexico and Nevada. Perhaps a bit over OOC scheduling,which comes in a strong 26 they have losses to Washington State, Clemson, Butler and Va Tech. There is a Q3 home loss to UNLV. The possibility of 6 Mountain West schools making the dance has been much talked about. Broncs have 3 games against bottom feeders that they absolutely must take before finish with Q1/2 oppportunites vs New Mexico, Nevada, and at San Diego State where they probably will need one if not 2 of those to solidify their spot here away from the last 8 in.
TEN SEEDS
(45) TEXAS A & M 15-10: Aggies coming in hot with a 6-5 mark in Quad 1 led by home wins over Tennessee, Kentucky and Floriad. Strong overall and OOC scheduling ranked 11/22. A very good OOC neutral site win over Iowa State. But 2 of those Q1 wins were at distant bubbles SMU/Ohio State so that gives them just 4 wins over schools in the field The problem is this...just 2-1 in Q2 meaning the Aggies have an unsightly FOUR Quad 3 losses. Home losses to fading Memphis, mediocre LSU, bad Arkansas and an inexcusable loss at Vandy which luckily is not a Q4 loss. They folllowed that Vandy loss by being waxed at Alabama 100-75. Its the kind of Jekyll and Hyde profile you see every year. Which way do they go depends on absolutely not dropping games to SEC lessers Arky and Georgia and probably splitting their opportunities at Tennessee, SC, Miss State, Ole Miss. Never want to start putting up 13 regular season losses when you have a huge red flag like A&M does in Q3.
(57) BUTLER 15-10: Bulldogs win at Creighton a couple weeks back helped to push them into the field but as I warned a dangerous gauntlet of 6 brutal games would determine their fate. Thus far, Butler is struggling. No shame in losing to UConn, they followed it up with a home win over Providence but then dropped back to back home games vs Marquette and over the weekend to Creighton by 22. Still 2 more games to go and both on the road to Nova and SHU two teams on the last 4 in/last 4 out grouping. Dogs need to win one if not two to remain in the the field. Lesser games vs St Johns, at De Paul and Xavier await to end the year. The bulky loss total is the concern. Yes its a strong sos 7/86 but there are now 9 Q1 losses to 4 wins. Those road wins at Marquette/Creighton are fabulous as are the non conference wins over Texas Tech and Boise. Yet they sit at just 9-10 in Q1/2/3. Ive seen profiles with a very good wins like they have be left out because just simply too many losses. These next two are GINORMOUS.
(38) MISSISSIPPI STATE 17-8: Tigers averted disaster by squeezing by Quad 3 Arkansas at home over the weekend. Their numbers in Q1/2 are solid but not overwhelming at 3-6 in Q1 and 6-6 Q1/2. Two excellent wins at home vs Auburn and Tennessee and fine stuff OOC over Northwestern and Washington State. While this is usually enough to put a school over the top, its their slip ups to Q3 Georgia Tech and worst of all Q4 Southern that leave some doubt. That non conference sos of 220. A brutally tough end to the season is full of opportunity and danger. Ole Miss, at LSU, Kentucky, at Auburn, at Texas A&M, and SC. While avoiding a loss at LSU is the key, annexing at least 2 other wins is going to be mandatory for them to stay in the field.
(49) NEBRASKA 18-8: Huskers might have the most scandalous resume if they cannot win a damn road game in the Big 10. The 4 wins over Purdue, Michigan State Wisconsin, and Northwestern plus a decent road win at Kansas State would normally be enough to secure a bid. 3-6 in Q1 and 3-2 in Q2 is okay but not great. However Nebby has two red flags here. One is the non conference sos of 324. Yes the KSU win was a road win of quality but scheduling 7 Q4s and pointing to wins over the likes of Oregon State and Duquense does not cut the mustard. In addition that road mark of 1-7 is currently 0-7 in the Big 10. I do not want to go Jerry Palm on the Cornhuskers but these are major issues they must overcome. Their last 5 are full of landmines. There is only one Q1 in there and that is at Ohio State. Plus a road game at Indiana, home games to Rutgers and Minnesota and a season finale road game at Michigan. Husker can make it easy by winning all 5, they are probably alright if they go 4-1 winning 2 on the road. Yet if they only win one game on the road, AT BEST they will be in the first four and vulnerable to get a NCAA tourney snub.
ELEVEN SEEDS
(48) GRAND CANYON* 23-2: The Lopes are currently the projected AQ from the WAC. They will be a very very attractive mid major at large selection if they fail to win the WAC tourney. Just two losses this year, one vs South Carolina, the other at Seattle a Q2 game. Highlighting their resume is a dandy of a win over San Diego State, their sole Q1 win. There is another solid win in Q2 over San Fransisco. Yes I get that 20 of their 23 wins are in Q3/4 including a whopping 13 in Q4. Still if the Lopes can win out the regular season finishing 27-2 regular season this is exactly the type of mid major that the selection committee will love to take. Seeding at 11 now says alot. If they do not lose again, they have an outside shot at a 10.
(63) SETON HALL 17-9: Their metrics suck but it's their performance on the court that matters. The only Big East school to knock off Connecticut who now has likely moved to the #1 overall seed is a win that overflows with bounty. Add in another home win over a projected 2 see Marquette you will not find many if any schools with a pair of wins like that. Now 5-5 in Q1 with road wins at bubble in projected Providence (splitting games) and Butler. A rally on Sunday completed the sweep vs St Johns, not necessarily a win that moves the needle but a win to avoid a bad loss. The Pirates have two in Q3, one to Rutgers in a rivalry game and the other to USC in a neutral site game. In reality those are not necessarily THAT bad of losses. The issue is the Pirates have nothing to point to OOC with a bad Missouri team being their best OOC win. 8 wins alone in Q4 is a red flag and that 240 OOC SOS is not good. For the Pirates they have 4 tough games coming up...home to Butler, at Creighton, at UConn and home to Nova. They will need to navigate these 4 by winning 2. Beating Butler/Nova at home will go along way to securing their bid. Anything less and its going to be dicey as Nova makes a late push and the overall loss total of the Pirates comes into play.
(44) NEVADA 19-6: Wolfpack are getting harder to avoid. Yes that one loss to New Mexico by 34 sank their metrics but cannot deny that 5-4 Quad 1 mark. There are wins at Utah State plus home wins over San Diego State and Colorado State. OOC they shine with wins over TCU and at Washington. Just 1-1 in Q2 and there is a Q3 loss to Wyoming. Now having 8 wins in Q4 is a bit of negative and you see that non conference sos at 259 is below other MVC schools. Now what to make that they got swept by New Mexico another deep bubble, well head to head is not a criteria. Whether 6 schools make it from this league is much talked about. Boise, New Mexico and Nevada are the 3 closest to the mendoza line of the 6. Unfortunately for the Pack only 2 Q1 opportunities remain in the last 6 both on the road to Colorado State and Boise State. They would do themselves well to get one of those and take care of business vs some mediocrity they will face at home.
(24) NEW MEXICO 19-6: Lobos have some great metrics with the overall NET of 24 but strength of record tells a different tale at just 49. There is the sweep over Nevada and wins over San Diego State and Utah State but unlike the rest of the MVC, the Lobos with their OOC rank of 269 do not have ANY quality OOC wins to point to. Yes UC Irvine and La Tech are projected AQs but they are still Q3 home games. Its not going to cut it when a whopping 15 of their 19 wins are in Q3/4. 3-3 in Q1 and 1-2 in Q2 are weak numbers compared to the other MVC bubbles. There is a Q3 loss to UNLV at home. Despite the sweep of Nevada which includes a 34 point beatdown, would have to rate the Lobos a notch behind at this point and most likely to be the odd school out if they cannot annex some Q1 wins. 3 of them left with a home game vs Colorado State and road trips to Boise and Utah St
(59) PROVIDENCE 17-9: Friars hanging in but need to do more to stay in. Those wins at home over Creighton and Marquette are very very good. Unlike Seton Hall, PC can point to a non conference win over Wisconsin. Splitting with fellow bubblers SHU and Butler gives them 5 wins vs teams in the field. 4-6 in Q1 pretty good, 3-3 in Q2 for 7-9 not bad either. There are no bad losses on the resume. Here is the issue. Providence is 0-0 in Q3. Their Q1/2/3 mark of 7-9 is no bueno. A whopping 10 of their 17 wins are in Q4. The non conference sos is 241. This is the kind of red flag they must take care of before selection sunday so that means stacking alot of win in the last 5. Georgetown at home of course is mandatory but probably need 3 of 4 of at Xav/Marq and home to UConn/Nova. Cannot say I am confident the Friars can do this.
(23) GONZAGA 19-6: This year we may find out if the NCAA has some sort of inherent bias towards schools with historical NCAA performances. The NET is in love with them at 23 with the SOR not quite as good at 45. The Zags in a rare spot right smack on top of the bubble are hoping that the selection committee uses emotions over criteria. The Zags may yet get another quality win when they travel to St Mary's in the season finale but right now their profile consists of just a road win at Kentucky and then losing every other big OOC game. Losses to Purdue, UConn, San Diego State, Washington make up that 1-5 Q1 performance. In Q2 its only a little better at 2-1 with wins over Syracuse and San Fran and a loss to Santa Clara. The non conference sos is 24 but if you only one quality win to show for it, that might not get it done. 11 of their 19 wins coming from Q4 and 7 of them in WCC which seems down in quality especially now that BYU is gone. To remain in the field short of winning the WCC tourney, the Zags will likely need to win at both San Fransisco AND St Mary's.
TWELVE SEEDS
(46) DRAKE* 21-5: Indiana State's slide has moved the Bulldogs into a tie atop the MVC standings and a nod as the AQ. Drake may actually be the more attractive at large candidate going forward. 2-1 in Quad and 3-2 in Q1/2 shows a split with Indiana State but more importantly a nifty OOC win over Nevada that could come in handy. Unfortunately there are 3 Q3 losses that might ultimately doom them. Non conference sos of 281 does not help. Will absolutely have to win out and then reach the MVC finals to have a shot as an at large.
(92) SOUTH FLORIDA* 19-5: Bulls somehow find themselves in first place in the AAC. I know some bracketologist are stubborn about projecting them as AQ over FAU but good golly the Bulls win yesterday over the Owls should end that discussion. The real question is do they have any other path to the NCAA besides winning the AAC tourney and I would say no. The NET is just 92 with a SOR of 67. The win over FAU was their sole win or sole Q1 game for that matter. 3-3 in Q2 but wins vs Memphis, Fla State, and North Texas do not move needles. Note there is a 19 point Q2 loss to Hofstra but ultimately its the Q4 home losses to Maine and Central Michigan combined with the OOC SOS of 330 that make talk of USF as an at large a non starter
(52) MC NEESE STATE* 19-3: The Cowboys have risen in the NET to 52 and it is at least matched by a SOR of 51. If they can win out and make the conference final they could be considered. 1-1 in Q1 with a win over VCU, 2-2 in Q2 includes wins at UAB and Michigan. Yeah that Q4 loss to SE Louisiana might be the difference maker. 14 of their 19 wins are to Quad 4 schools yet their non conference sos is an intriguing 120
APPALACHIAN STATE*
THIRTEEN SEED
CORNELL*
SAMFORD*
UC IRVINE*
LOUISIANA TECH*
FOURTEEN SEEDS
AKRON*
MOREHEAD STATE*
VERMONT*
CHARLESTON*
FIFTHTEEN SEEDS
HIGH POINT *
EASTERN WASHINGTON*
OAKLAND
COLGATE
SIXTEEN SEEDS
SOUTHERN*
QUINNIPIAC*
EASTERN KENTUCKY*
MERRIMACK*
NORFOLK STATE*
NORTH DAKOTA*
BUBBLE OUT
(50) UTAH 16-10: Utes hung for a road Q2 win at UCLA. Yes those Pac 12 road games are inflated this year but its still counts as Q2 where they are now 8-9 in Q1/2. 3 Q1 wins show two very nice victories over St Mary's and BYU. The other a win over bubble wake. In Q2 there is a win over projected in Washington State. Its a little engine that could profile. A mixed bag of stuff. The sos is 33 overall with a fine 29 non conference. There is one blemish in Q3 to Arizona State, in fact the Sun Devils swept the Utes who also have losses to lower end Pac 12s like Stanford and USC. A profile like this can always be passed by a school doing more down the stretch. Two road games at Colorado and Oregon provide the only quality opportunities and even they are rather meh in the grand scheme of things.
(37) CINCINNATI 17-9: The NET loves the Bearcats a 37 and there are 3 standout wins here but the feeling is they need something more. 3-6 in Q1 including coveted Q1 road wins at BYU and Texas Tech. 2-2 in Q2 includes a win over TCU. The sweep of UCF one of them a Q1 for now seem to be carry less cache now. There is a Q3 loss at WVU and half of their 16 wins are coming from Quad 4. Non conference 305 is a red flag as the best non conference win was Eastern Washington. The good news is that they have 3 Q1 opportunities left...the bad news is that they are all on the road...at TCU, at Houston, at Oklahoma. Can they come up with 2 of those? The home games of WVU, KSU, Ok St are landmines not resume builders.
(65) MISSISSIPPI 19-6: Have not been enamored with the Rebels profile for a while now and the NET now is starting to agree with me as its down to 65. Such a contrast to their SOR at 21. 3-5 in Q1 and 2-1 in Q2 makes for 5-6. That means 14 of their 19 wins come from Q3/4 and that seems alot for a SEC school. Then we have the hideous 327 OOC SOS. There are 3 good wins here....Florida, Missisissippi State and at Texas A&M and remember its a clean profile with no losses outside of Q1/2 although LSU should not be considered a good loss. Let's see what they can do in final 6 with 4 of them opportunities vs the likes of at Miss State and SC/Bama/A&M all at home. I will say there is a large gap between the Rebels and the rest of the bubble list below them right now and I am not understating it....it is ginormous.
(35) VILLANOVA 14-11: The Wildcats certainly have the most outrageous resume on the bubble. 3 Q3 losses to medicority such as Penn, St Joes, and Drexel. Yet in contrast there are wins over North Carolina, at Creighton, and Texas Tech. Are you kidding me!!??? Add in wins over Providence and Seton Hall and Nova has 5 wins vs teams in the field and no one outside the field or even in the last 8 in have non conference wins as good as they do. How the committee will balance those quality wins with 3 Q3 losses. Note Nova also got swept by a fading St Johns and a loss to Kansas State. To have 6 questionable losses could be a bridge too far. 3-6 in Q1 and 5-2 in Q1/2 to make 8-8 is quite strong. SOS non conference a fine 85. The NET metrics love them at 35 but beware as the Strength of Record is a concerning 66. With 11 losses and 6 games left they are almost in a situation where even if they go 4-2 they could end up with an unwieldly 14 losses come selection sunday. Do they have to go 5-1 down the stretch. Its a tough ask..thee are road games at UConn, Providence and Seton Hall with home games vs Butler, Gtown, and Creighton. If they do go 5-1 they simply deserve it.
(40) WAKE FOREST 16-9: Deacons continue to hang around the last 4-6 out line but do not seem to be taking advantage of their NET metrics. Two missed opportunities for road wins last week, the first at Duke then a painful 2 point loss at UVA. The OOC win over Florida has now turned into a Q1 win, their first but that makes it 1-6. 4-3 in Q2 sees wins vs Virginia, Va Tech and NC State. Still no bad loss per se outside of Q2 but those losses to FSU, LSU and Georgia are not what the committee wants to see. The non conference sos of 242. does not instill confidence. Next two at home vs Pitt and Duke might be must wins at this point. Two games later at Va Tech and home to Clemson are other big opportunities to help the resume out.
(62) VIRGINIA TECH 15-11: Currently putting this together and just learned the Hokies got a rousing 75-41 win over Virginia. NET was at but figures to soar 5-10 spots after the win. Yes this improves a profile whose best work has been OOC. 2 very good neutral site non conference wins over Iowa State and Boise State. In league wins now over Clemson and Virginia. There is a barely Q1 win over NC State. Now 4-6 in Q1 and 1-3 in Q2..that 5-9 mark needs some work. The non conference sos of 44 very good but the 2 Q3 losses to Miami and at Notre Dame really hurt because that bulky loss total of 11 is likely to grow and while there are some good things here, it seems still short. The next 3 are not exactly marquee games but two of them are against direct bubble competitors in at Pitt, at Cuse, Wake. Likely need all 3 of these to vault in.
(47) PITTSBURGH 17-8: Panthers coming out of nowhere with their metrics taking off. Pitt had an unlikely road win at Duke back in January but seemed flukish with nothing to back it up. Well last week they followed it up with Q1 road wins at Virginia and NC State. Puts them at 3-4 in Q1 and while they are just 1-2 in Q2 that does include a win over bubble Wake. Winners of 5 in a row and 7 of their last 8 but still a couple of red flags here. That non conference sos of 347 with the best win being WVU and 2 Q3 losses to the likes of Mizzou and Syracuse (ok that one isnt terrible really). The profile seems willing and there are 3 games coming up where Pitt can make a statement...at Wake, Va Tech and Clemson. Take them all and they are in. Win 2 of 3 and they better make sure they win those last 3. Its doable.
(81) KANSAS STATE 15-10: Cats have dropped 6 of 7 and as of this writing look headed to another loss this time to Texas. Each loss is adding another lead sinker to their resume. Someone they eeked out a lone in over Kansas in this tough stretch but too much losing is negating that bounty of a win. 2-4 in Q1 and 4-5 in Q2, there is an additional quality win over Baylor. Two out of conference wins over Providence and Villanova are good to have. A home loss to bubble Nebraska, losses to Oklahoma State and Miami. Just too much losing and the metrics are cratering down to 81 in the NET. Games coming vs BYU, at Kansas and Iowa State will be their last chances at salvaging a bid.
(42) COLORADO 17-9: Quite honestly I am not a fan of this profile Yet at 42 in the NET from the Pac 12 with no loss outside Q1/2 its the type of profile that the selection committee seems to overvalue. I will show you where....Just 1-5 in Q1 over Washington bid deal but 6-4 in Q2 and the committee seems to eat up meaningless wins vs the like of mediocrity like Oregon, Washington, USC and Miami. Their two best wins are Washington State inn Q2 a tourney team and Richmond. Is this really a NCAA tourney team? They had lost 4 of 5 before rallying from down 20 to win at USC. Just a Q2 game vs Utah and Q1 at Oregon left. Those are not the kind of games that should move any needles. No I do not think they end up getting in but yes I think they will be given way more consideration than their resume deserves.
(89) RUTGERS 14-11: The Scarlet Knights 4 game win streak ended at Minnesota. Its just a Q2 loss for the Knights so it does not end their chances but it certainly narrows their margin of error. To even be in serious consideration, RU needs to win 5 of their last 6f. With a road trip to Purdue next up, its a tall ask for them to pull off an upset. Yet if they do it could vault the Knights all the way to the very cusp of the field. Without the win, it means the Knights must run the table on their last 5 which sees 3 doable home games vs Maryland, Michigan and Ohio State and two tough road games at Wisconsin and Nebraska. Currently the Knights in trouble with the metrics at 89 even SOR poor at 74, most likely due to some underperforming vs the likes of Stonehill and LIU two of the 15 worst schools in the nation according to the NET. Rutgers does have 4 wins vs schools in the field...Wisconsin, Nebraska, Northwestern and a looking better win at Seton Hall. Note losses to bubbles Mississippi State, Wake Forest, Iowa, Minnesota and Princeton. Knights simply have not won enough. The Q1 mark of 3-8 and Q2 of 3-2 puts them at 6-10 and they just have to do better. Non conference mark or road marks are not an issue unlike other years. This time simply not enough enough quality wins. Can they get 2-3 more down the stretch?
(32) INDIANA STATE 21-5: Sycamores may have potentially sank their season with back to back losses in MVC play, the most egregious of all a Q4 home loss to Illinois State. These are the type of losses that mid majors who do not have strong marks in Q1 and 2 simply cannot afford. While the NET didnt take that much of a hit down to 32 and SOR at 39, the fact is this profile really is living off of a split with AQ Drake and 2 wins over Bradley. 17 wins of the 21 are to Q3/4 and Toledo is the best ooc win. Yes they scheduled Alabama and Michigan State and that is reflected in an acceptable non conference sos of 165 but it just seems like one loss to many and perhaps a notch behind Drake when comparing resumes. We shall revisit if they win out and them make the MVC finals and without question they have the ability to win it. The Missouri Valley is currently the 9th ranked conference...that is better than both the WCC and AAC who are being touted as 2 bid leagues.
(67) IOWA 15-11: Hawkeyes did not have a Quad 1 win until they knocked off Wisconsin. So here Iowa arrives on the bubble list. I cannot say this is an impressive resume. There are additional wins vs tourney projected schools...Nebraska and Seton Hall. 1-7 in Q1, 5-3 Q2. That 6-10 mark is not good. There is a Q3 home loss to Michigan I bet they really want back. Opportunity certainly is there where they will have to do major damage on the road at Michigan State, at Illinois at Northwestern while holding serve at home vs Penn State and Illinois. For a team with just 2 road wins that is a real tough ask.
(86) MEMPHIS 18-8: Tigers are teetering on the edge and perhaps I am being a bit too generous with them. Their early season stuff was great. Non conference sos of 69 with wins over Clemson and Virginia at home. Texas A&M and VCU on the road. That was an impressive resume they took into AAC conference play. League play certainly started out alright as they won their first 4 but the Tigers hit a 4 game skid including the ultimate insult a Q4 home loss to lowly Rice. Losses to UAB and Tulane may qualify as Q2 but these are bad losses nonetheless. Tigers did hit a 3 game win streak but then dropped the last 2 and were absolutely embarrassed by SMU on Sunday 106-79. It seems as if all the good from non conference play has been negated and that shows in the NET down to 86 and even SOR is at 61. 3-3 in Q1 and 2-3 in Q2 does not seem that bad considering they are 7-1 in Q3 but I think the metrics here are a killer. 5 games left and 2 with FAU, they will need to win all of them to move back into any serious contention.
(75) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 16-9: Wolfpack put their hat in the ring with a win at Clemson. That was their first Q 1 win of the year (1-6). In Q2 they are just 3-3 making for a woeful 4-9, There are wins vs UVA and Wake there. No loss outside the top 2 Quads so that is a big plus. Yet I see 8 of 16 wins in Q4. Failed in all their non conference attempts vs the likes of BYU, Tennessee, and Ole Miss and you have to dig down to Q4 for their best OOC win of Tennessee Martin. Will need to take care of the dregs of the ACC before getting to final 3 of at UNC, Duke and at Pitt. Need to take 2 of these.
(71) VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH 17-8: It does seem like every year the A10 is able to slip a 2nd team in. Certainly both VCU and Richmond have every right to win the A10 tourney as both as taken down league leading Dayton. Dayton is VCU's sole Q1 win (1-3) and while the Q2 mark is 5-2 do the wins over Samford and Richmond move the needle that much. Note a loss to McNeese. More importantly are the losses in Q3/4. The Memphis loss at a time when the Tigers were well thought of is excusable but not the 2 Q4s to George Washington and Norfolk State. A bit more opportunity for them as road games loom at Richmond and Dayton. Win both of those and its a huge profile rise.
(73) RICHMOND 18-7: Spiders were knocked out of first in the A10 with a Q3 home loss to UMass. Exact numbers to VCU with 1-3 in Q1 and 5-2 in Q2 with the highlight the win over Dayton. Difference is that VCU owns a win over Richmond but Richmond will hot the rubber match. A win over UNLV in Q2 is nice but does not move any needles. An additonal Q3 loss to Wichita State drags the profile down. Again only hope is to run the table in last 6 and reach A10 finals.
(77) MINNESOTA 16-9: Look the Gophers are having a nice season and the 16-9 mark certainly looks good but there are 362 schools in D1 and the Gophers non conference sos is rated 361! 9 of their 16 wins are in Q4 where their best win....wait for it...was Maine. They have a Quad 3 loss to awful Missouri. They are just 1-5 in Q1 and a better 5-3 in Q2. League wins over Michigan State, Nebraska and Northwestern all tourney projected teams. Can they win out their last 6 or at worst 5-1 which would include winning at Illinois, Nebraska, and Northwestern...good luck.
(64) OHIO STATE 15-11: Don't laugh but suddenly the Buckeyes have the two best combo of wins of the year. Many forget way back, OSU pulled off a neutral court win over Alabama. The sputtering Buckeyes just added to that with a win over #2 Purdue. Unfortunately for them those 2 wins are the only in Q1 now 2-6 and it does not get much better in Q2 at 1-4 so the 3-10 Q1/2 mark is a non starter for an at large. They are just 5-10 in the Big 10 and we are talking a situation where they will have to win their last 5 to even remain on this list. 2 road games upcoming at Minnesota and Michigan State plus the season finale at Rutgers sandwiched around home games with Nebraska and Michigan. Oh by the way OSU is 0-7 on the road this season. Would have to conjure up their zombie run in the Big 10 tourney last year.
(53) PRINCETON 17-3: The Tigers run aside from a year ago, its hard to make a case for them based only on Q2 wins over Rutgers and Duquense. The fact of the matter is the Ivies just do not schedule tough enough. Princeton at 209 with zero Q1 wins. The loss to St Joes also in play here perhaps if they did not lose that one. Certainly if they win out and make the Ivy finals, they will be on the board to be considered but there are other similar resumes from lower mid majors that have Q1 wins like James Madison, Grand Canyon, Drake, and McNeese State so why Princeton.
(90) SYRACUSE 15-10: Orange only here because they got a fluke win at UNC and at the same time a school they swept, Pitt is starting to make a late run. Otherwise the Orange at just 2-7 in Q1 and 3-1 in Q2 just do not have the stuff currently to seriously consider, especially considering they followed up the UNC win an ugly Q3 road loss to Georgia Tech. If they can close out by winning their last 5 which would include road game at NC State, Clemson and a home game vs Va Tech then maybe we can talk.
(68) CENTRAL FLORIDA 13-11: Losers of 5 of their last 6, the Golden Knights hopes are flickering. Perhaps only still here because there are opportunity games with 3 Quad 1 home games vs Houston, Iowa State and Texas Tech plus a Q1 road game at TCU. That would be quite the turnaround for a profile taking on water. The wins over Kansas, at Texas, Oklahoma were nice starters but simply not enough given their bulky loss total, their tragic non conference sos of 341 and a Quad 4 loss to Stetson.
(51) ST JOHN'S 14-12: Jonnnies were not far from creeping to the last 4 out line but yesterday's collapse vs Seton Hall was pretty devastating to their hopes. That bulky loss total at 12 is becoming too much to ignore. There are some nice wins here...Utah OOC, Butler, Providence, a sweep vs last 4 out Nova but there simply is not enough here to make a case for a 13-14 loss team. 2-9 in Q1 but an unsightly 9-12 in Q1/2/3. 3 of their last 5 include Gtown 2x and De Paul so those games really do not help. They will have to beat Creighton at home and win at Butler for them to remain in any contention. Remember they have now lost 8 of their last 10.
(55) JAMES MADISON 23-3: Ran through OOC play with a 12-0 mark including a feather in their cap road win at Michigan State. Note a win a couple weeks back vs MAC AQ Akron. Unfortunately the Dukes find themselves in a tie for 2nd behind Appalachian State in the Sunbelt who they were swept by. There is an additional loss in Q3 to Southern Miss and maybe that is the killer. 17 of 23 wins in Q4 is a tough sell. If they win out and then reach the finals they will get some consideration but how much can that Michigan State win give? Might as well just win the Sunbelt tourney which of course they can.
(68) OREGON 17-8: Don't think a road win over Washington State makes a tourney resume. Yes they are 9-5 in the Pac 12 but is that really worth anything? 5-7 in Q1/2 with 2 of those wins to Washington. Got boatraced by Syracuse, have a Q3 loss to Santa Clara and best OOC win was just Michigan.
(79) MIAMI 15-11: Might be too far gone for the Canes after dropping 5 of their last 6. I suppose with an upcoming game vs Duke and a trip to UNC, wins in both could resuscitate their chances. Currently one win over a team in field...Clemson. Do not get fooled with the 7-9 Q1/2 mark which includes some beyond last 4 out bubbles Pitt, Va Tech, Kansas State and UCF. There is a Q4 home loss to Louisville on the profile.
(72) WASHINGTON 14-12: Mulcahy's minions are the longest of longshots now after dropping to 14-12 with a hideous Q3 home loss to Cal. Before that UW had not lose to anyone outside Q1/2. It's apparent their resume is taking on too much water to help their already shaky profile which only shows wins vs last in and last out Gonzaga and Utah to point too. 1-5 Q1 and 5-11 Q1/2 just does not cut it. There is a trip to Arizona so I suppose......
(34) SMU 18-7: It has been said if you just have NET you have nothing. The Mustangs have nothing. 0-2 in Q1 and 2-4 Q2 but those wins are sub 500 Florida State and Tulane. 16 wins out of 18 are to Q3/4. Even their best win of the season a blowout over Memphis was just a Q3 home game. Next two are at FAU and at South Florida so they have this week to make a resume.
FIRST 4 BYES: BUTLER, MISSISSIPPI STATE, NEBRASKA, SETON HALL
LAST 4 IN: GONZAGA, PROVIDENCE, NEW MEXICO, NEVADA
FIRST 4 OUT: UTAH, CINCINNATI, MISSISSIPPI, VILLANOVA
NEXT 4 OUT: WAKE FOREST, VIRGINIA TECH, PITTSBURGH, KANSAS STATE
ON DECK: COLORADO, RUTGERS, INDIANA STATE, IOWA
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