Okay Selection Sunday is less than one week away and we are heading into the homestretch There are 32 AQs (automatic qualifiers from each conference). * denotes projected AQ. There are 36 at large bids. I am projecting 24 at large locks leaving 10 available spots in the field. I am projecting 23 schools competing for those 10 open spots. Locks are all the way up through through half the 9 seeds.
ONE SEEDS
TWO SEEDS
THREE SEEDS
FOUR SEEDS
FIVE SEEDS
SIX SEEDS
SEVEN SEEDS
EIGHT SEEDS
NINE SEEDS
(40) TCU 20-11: Horned Frogs could have locked themselves in but suffered a head scratching home loss to Central Florida over the weekend. TCU has not beaten a tourney team since January 30 and its showing on their resume. Of course there is Wonka Bar type win over Houston that highlights the resume but do not forget about an important high end Q1 road win at Baylor. An additional Q1 win over Texas Tech and Q2 over Oklahoma gives the Frogs 4 wins vs the field. The 4-10 mark in Q1 is pretty bulky in the loss column. Q2 is just 3-1. No loss outside Q2 and just one loss outside Q1 is tough to criticize yet 7-11 isnt that hot a record and likely dings their seeding. That non conference sos of 322 is unheard of for an large. Best OOC win was just Arizona State. Would not say they are in real trouble of missing the field (see their SOR of 36) but their first round Big 12 game is Oklahoma a school just below them in the pecking order. A loss there and TCU moving down to a 10 and then perhaps forced down into those first four games.
TEN SEEDS
(43) OKLAHOMA 20-11: Sooners were very fortunate to escape with a home win vs Cincy earlier in the week in overtime. That was enough to keep them above the cut line for now but 5 losses in their last 7 have landed them in a spot where they cannot feel totally safe. 4-11 in Q1 shows that the Sooners have played some top competition. Their SOR is a fine 29 and their overall sos is 21. No losses outside of Q1 but its still showing they lose more often than not vs top tier schools. Consider only 2 of those 4 Q1 wins are to tourney teams...home wins to BYU and Iowa State. Then consider there are no other wins vs teams in the field on this resume. 5-0 in Q2 shows wins over bubbles Iowa/Providence so that is plus. 9-11 vs Q1/2, 12-11 vs Q1/2/3. The meeting with TCU in the first round of the Big 12 tourney will have implications for both teams and do note OU lost to the Frogs in their only meeting of the season. Would do themselves well to stay above the fray .
(25) MICHIGAN STATE 18-13: Tom Izzo has taken Michigan State to 25 consecutive NCAA tournaments but it looks like its time to start worrying in East Lansing about that streak possibly being broken. 4 losses in the last 5 games, 3 of them to teams not headed to the NCAA has pushed their loss total to the bulky range. The win over Northwestern certainly helped but they followed it up with a less than impressive effort at Indiana so here we are. 3-8 in Q1 is highlighted by a neutral site win over Baylor and a home win over Illinois. There is an important win over right on the bubble Indiana State that is nice to have in their back pocket. 5-5 in Q2 shows their third win vs team in field Northwestern. Only 3 wins vs teams in field is sort of weak. That 8-13 Q1/2 number is both good and bad. Its shows they are struggling vs top competiton but also showing they have not lost to anyone outside of Q2. That ultimately could be the key along with the SOS numbers of 18/40 being very willing. Net metric great at 25 but SOR less so at 44. There would be some years this resume would not pass the test. This year they may slide by as long as they can handle Minnesota in their first Big 10 tourney game. A loss puts them at 18-14 and a prime first four candidate and a ominous danger of being sucked right out of the field.
(42) MISSISSIPPI STATE 19-12: Bulldogs finished their end of season gauntlet 0-4 and thats why they find themselves in a bit of danger. That win over Tennessee is a beacon light on their profile. 4-8 in Quad 1 also includes a win over Auburn plus strong non conference neutral site wins over Northwestern and Washington State. That would seem to make them good to go right? Well MSU is just 2-3 in Q2 and that puts them a less than impressive 6-11 in Q1/2 games. Ga Tech/Ole Miss may be Q2 losses but.... Also keep in mind there is really bad Quad 4 loss home loss to Southern. 13 of 19 wins coming from Q3/4 does raise concerns. The SOR has fallen to 52. While they have those quality neutral site wins, the road mark of 2-8 shows a win at LSU as their best. A troubling SEC tourney draw awaits. Slotted as the 8 seed they get LSU with Tennessee waiting in the wings. Is the LSU game a must win? I tend to think so. With those red flags, I have seen profiles like this passed over even with those good wins. The Bulldogs may not have to beat Tennessee but winning would make it academic and keep them from slipping into those first four games.
(62) SETON HALL 20-11: Pirates got that huge win over Villanova to give them a leg up in a very bulky 4 school Big East bubble race. However the Pirates cannot be resting comfortably. That win over Connecticut is worth perhaps 3 wins and the Pirates will feed off of every drop of it. 5-7 in Quad 1 is very good along the bubble. Included are wins vs Marquette and over St Johns. Pirates have the sweep over the Johnnies and with St Johns projected just in the field, that gives them 4 win vs the field for now. 9-10 in Q1/2 is still very strong. Split with Providence/Nova. Loss to bubble Iowa. Out of conference is very poor for the Pirates. Missouri in Q3 is their best win. USC is now just a Q2 loss and there is a bad Q3 home loss to Rutgers they would really want back. Not a good thing that now 9 of their wins are in Q4 and that with their sos of 228 probably conspires to hold their NET metric down at 62 which is the lowest of any at large school selected this year. Finished 4th in the Big East and will get St John's in an enormous bubble matchup in the Big East tourney. The game likely is a must win for St John's but the Pirates could sustain this loss given those 2 high profile wins they have though raising the liklihood of a first four appearance. The SOR at 34 is very encouraging for them while at odds with the overall NET. Its likely to cause seeding uncertainty here. Pirates with a better NET might be projected a 9 seed now, they still might get there but the committee has shown that those wobbly NETs give schools a seeding ding so I would hesistate to put them higher.
ELEVEN SEEDS
DRAKE*
(48) PRINCETON* 22-3: Tigers are the projected AQ from the Ivy League. Brown up next in the Ivy semis folllowed by Yale/Cornell in the Ivy finals. The Ivies have never received an at large and despite Princeton's gaudy record and overall net at 48 with a SOR of 30, until it happens I have to bet against it. Tough to give a bid to a team that has not even played a Q1 game this year. 20 of 22 wins coming from Q3/4. Just 2-3 in Q2 with losses to Yale/Cornell/St Joes and wins over just Duquense/Hofstra. That just does not seem bid worthy. Yet the Tigers will be the heavy faves to win the Ivy tourney and as an 11 will be a nightmare for any of the projected 6 seeds listed above.
(51) VIRGINIA 22-9: Starting to make peace with the Cavs resume. It not overwhelming and they have looked awful offensively down the stretch but the reality is they might have done just enough. A weak 2-6 in Quad 1 highlighted by a win at Clemson and a neutral site win over Florida. Q2 at 6-3 puts their Q1/2 mark at 8-9 which solidly fits here. Wins over bubbles Texas A&M, Wake, Va Tech. Loss to bubble Pitt. Some plusses here are 4 Q1/2 road wins and no loss outside Q2 albeit losing to Notre Dame should never been considered anything other than a bad loss this year. A sneaky thing here that most overlook is the 8-0 Q3 mark pushing them to 16-9 vs Q1/2/3. When you compare it to some other bloated power 6 schools, UVAs mark stands out. I will note there are two 25 point plus losses to bubbles Memphis and Va Tech in Q1. Those are a really bad look for them and likely the reason their metrics are this low with their record. That could leave them vulnerable seeding wise and possibly stuck in the first four loop. SOR of record very very willing at 32. The big positive for them is they were seeded 3rd in the ACC tourney....barring a BC upset of Clemson, losing to the Tigers in the ACC quarters would not be a bad loss. A win there of course makes it academic...not so sure though they have to win but remember Wake/Pitt also lurking out there as bubbles.
(27) COLORADO 22-9: Like with the Cavs, its time to come on board and admit the obvious. Barring a loss to Utah/Arizona State in the Pac 12 quarters, the Buffs will be dancing. Overall net metric at 27 and power 6 schools do not get left out with numbers inside the top 30. SOR has vaulted up to a palatable 42 narrowing the gulf between their NET. 2-5 in Q1 shows win at just Oregon/Wash NIT teams. That 7-4 Q2 mark brings that Q1/2 record to a solid 9-9. That is where their best win over Washington State resides. An additional win over A10 AQ Richmond is helpful. Split with bubble Utah. I cannot say I like the losses to FSU, UCLA. Cal and ASU in Q2 but the reality is there are no losses here outside Q2. If I were doing the selections this would not be a NCAA at large selection but I am not on the committee. The committee has shown they value these clean profiles that also can rack up some Q3 wins and push that Q1/2/3 like the 15-9 one you see here. Conference affiliation does not matter so they say but you cannot tell me the Pac 12 would only get 2 as the 6th rated conference while the 7th rated Mountain West gets 6.
(39) SAINT JOHN'S 19-12: Johnnies resume has taken some wild swings in the past couple weeks and looks like its on the downward swing again. SJU did take care of Big East autowins De Paul and Georgetown this week but in the meantime two losses by Nova and Utah really put a crimp in the strength of their profile. Redmen are left with a sole win vs a team in the field. Its a really good one in Creighton. Yet its still pretty favorable that they have 6 wins vs bubble schools: 2x Nova, 2x Butler, Utah, Providence. The 3-9 mark in Q1 is weak but 6-2 in Q2 makes up for it to push the Q1/2 stuff to a very solid 9-11. A Quad 2 loss to BC might be one they regret but even worse was the Q3 loss to woebegone Michigan. Their SOR is borderline at 47. Overall sos down to 34 after those recent 2 and non conference sos of 183 is just barely passable. Keep in mind the Red Storm were swept by bubble Seton Hall who simply has better wins than them. Big quarterfinal matchup with the Pirates and it is one SJU just has to get to stay in the field. Might not make it out of first four without an additional win.
(46) TEXAS A & M 18-13: Aggies have played their way back into the field although everything depends on just how forgiving the selection committee will be when it comes to looking at their 4 Quad 3 losses. A ton of good here....5-6 in Q1, 6-3 in Q2 for an awesome 11-9 Q1/2. Those are superlative numbers for any school in the field let alone a bubble school. 3 wins vs projected top 4 seeds: Tennessee, Iowa State and Kentucky. 5 wins vs teams in the field when you add in the Q2 wins over Florida and Mississippi State. Schedule strength vs strong here at 17 overall and 21 non conference. Their 5 game February swoon sank the resume but 3 wins to close out the year have at least pushed them back to 13-13 in Q1/2/3. The 4 Q3 losses are an ugly stain. Losses to Vandy, Arkansas, LSU, and Ole Miss. That Q2 road loss to Arky isnt good either. SOR has risen back to a workable 45. Aggies have the goods to get in the field I am sure of that, what I am not sure of is how the committee will see those 4 Quad 3 losses. Its been said that schools have received bids with 4 Q3 losses or maybe a split of 3 Q3 and a Q4 but in my research I have not actually found which schools they were. Note the similarities to Villanova's resume who has only 3 Q3 losses but the big advantage is having 13 losses going into the conference tourney as opposed to Nova's 14. 14 loss schools do not make the tourney if they have the wins, while 15 loss schools, I believe only once. A&M at least must beat Ole Miss in the opening round of the SEC tourney. Next up is Kentucky and yeah a win there would likely make it too much for the selection committee to pass them up.
TWELVE SEEDS
(78) SOUTH FLORIDA* 23-6: Bulls are projected AQ from the AAC though they will not be favorites to win that tourney. There was some momentum building for a possible at large case but that was swiftly halted with a Q3 road loss at Tulsa. Yes it was only their second conference defeat but the problem here stems from 2 Q4 non conference home losses to Maine and Central Michgan. Hard enough to overcome 2 bad losses but now 3. The reality is 17 of their 23 wins comes from Q3/4 and there is no way to avoid that 319 NC SOS. 1-0 in Quad 1 but thats over distant bubble Memphis. Their best win was actually Florida Atlantic in Quad 2 so they can take some confidence that they can still win this tourney. The Q2 mark is a decent 5-3 but still shows losses to middling programs like UMass and Hofstra. Next up will be the winner of Tulsa/ECarolina and then a potential matchup with Memphis avoiding FAU until the finals. Will revisit then but it is not looking good.
(71) RICHMOND* 23-8: Spiders are the projected AQ from the Atlantic 10. Their at large chances took a hit with a road loss at George Mason, only a Q2 loss but still damaging for a marginal profile. The A10 is the 9th rated conference and at time has been given a 2nd or 3rd bid. Reality is there is just the win in Q1 (1-2) over Dayton to point to. Q2 is 4-4 with wins over the likes of UNLV and Loyola but losses to BC and Northern Iowa. The real damage is 2 Q3 losses to UMass and Wichita State. 18 of 23 wins coming from Q3/4 is not a good look. Spiders draw will avoid Dayton/Loyola until the finals so it is not like they can add additonal moving the needle wins before the final. Let's see what happens when we get there.
(53) GRAND CANYON* 26-4: Lopes are the projected AQ from the WAC. Have a Q1 win over San Diego State and a Q2 over San Fransisco. 1-1 in Q1 also shows a loss to South Carolina, 2-1 in Q2. Problem is 23 of 26 are Q3/4 and 14 alone in Q4. 2 Q3 losses...perhaps just one too many may be a bridge too far for an at large selection. Losing to 2nd place Tarleton State can be forgiven but its the hideous loss at Abilene Christian the fatal blow here. Will at least be on the board for consideration.
(55) JAMES MADISON* 29-3: Dukes are now the projected AQ from the Sun Belt. James Madison has advanced to the finals of the Sun Belt and will take on Arkansas State who upset regular season champ Appalachian State. At large chances not good given that its Q3 Arky State rather than Q1 Appalachian they meet in final. JMU has a Q1 win over Michigan State but two losses to Appalachian, one in each quad..just 1-2 in Q1/2 is a major red flag here. 28 wins in Q3/4 and an unwiedly 22 in Q4 itself...WOW! The Quad 4 loss to Southern Mississippi is one they will be regretting. Non conference sos of 333. So much working against any inclusion of a little guy here.
THIRTEEN SEEDS
MC NEESE STATE*
SAMFORD*
UC IRVINE*
CHARLESTON*
FOURTEEN SEEDS
TOLEDO*
VERMONT*
OAKLAND*
MOREHEAD STATE*
FIFTEEN SEEDS
COLGATE*
SAM HOUSTON STATE*
MONTANA*
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE*
SIXTEEN SEEDS
STETSON*
QUINNIPIAC*
LONGWOOD*
MERRIMACK*
NORFOLK STATE*
GRAMBLING STATE*
BUBBLE OUT
(29) INDIANA STATE 27-6: Sycamores rally vs Drake in the Missouri Valley tourney finals fell short and now the regular season champ of the MVC fate rest in the hands of the selection committee. Will they or won't they is always a judgment call when it comes to these midmajors who win their regular season with gaudy records. Note the Missouri Valley is the 10th rated conference this year putting ahead of the WCC and just behind the AAC. In 2019 Belmont with the same regular and a regular season co title in a worse league received an at large bid and a spot in the first four games. ISU's biggest issue is the only win they have vs a team in the field is Drake who they went 1-2 against. Though there may be another in MAC projected AQ Toledo. Just 1-4 in Q1 and that win was at Bradley. A better 4-1 in Q2 but does another win over Bradley and vs the likes of Northern Iowa and Belmont move the needle. They did schedule Michigan State and Alabama both losses. The SOS of 129/188 is not all that bad for a midmajor. 22 of their 27 wins are coming from Q3/4. There is a Q4 home loss to Illinois which is just one blemish out of the top 2 quads but with the margins so razor thin along the bubble that could be the difference between last team out or last team in. Never a good spot to be right on the cut line with no more games to play. All they can do is root against the teams below them. Do not forget 2 bids are being taken up by USF and Richmond and those two are not favorites to win their conference tourneys so something to watch evolve if one or even two of these spots open up. Keep in mind while the NET seems inflated at 29, their SOR at 38 is right in line with an at large bid.
(28) NEW MEXICO 21-9: Lobos have the best NET of any team left out of the field. Yet their SOR of 71 portends to what could be their eventual fate. Lobos have had their moments this season. Their sweep of Nevada with one of those games a 34 point win look better each day wiht the Wolfpack's recent surge. They do have all the requisite wins vs the rest of the Mountain West in the field teams: San Diego State, Utah State, Colorado State. Yet that Q1 does come out to just 2-7. Only 4-1 in Q2 so 6-8 in Q1/2 is much weaker than the Mountain West counterparts as the conference tries to land a record 6 conference bids. There are two sneaky good wins over AQ projected UC Irvine and Toledo...could give them potentially 7 wins vs schools in the field. Despite those wins, their non conference sos comes in at just 268. Then the most notable red flag, a horrific home defeat to 269 Air Force in Quad 4. Not convinced that the Mountain West is deserving of 6 and if the committee feels that way (even though they are not suppose to consider conference affiliation), it is easy to leave the Lobos out. Still an opportunity to boost their profile. Draw Air Force in the first round of the tourney and then a matchup with Boise State with Nevada/CSU waiting in the wing. Flat out they need to beat Boise in the quarters.
(33) VILLANOVA 17-14: In the past few weeks, the Cats did so much work to overcome their resume warts in the past few weeks only to come crashing down to earth. The loss at Seton Hall was a missed opportunity to sweep the Pirates and get a leg up on them moving forward. The loss at home to Creighton in heartbreaking fashion at the buzzer not only prevented Nova from becoming an at large lock but it took their profile into no man's land. Now with 14 losses, their next loss is their 15th. I can only find one school Vandy I believe it was 2017 who received an at large with a 19-15 record. It just does not happen. To do my best Jerry Palm imitation, it is hard to bet against history. Not only that but very few schools get at larges only 3 games above 500 meaning Nova will need two. Fortunately for them they actually benefit by being seeded 6th and playing De Paul in the Big East tourney opener, then get Marquette. If they can get to 19-15 then we shall see if they can make rare history. The Cats have no one to blame but themselves. 3 hideous Q3 losses to Penn, Drexel and St Joe's. One less lose would make all the difference here. The Cats have the wins and the strong Q1/2 numbers and sos (15/73) to get a bid. 4-10 in Q1 includes wins over North Carolina, at Creighton, Texas Tech and at bubble Providence. Q2 at 5-1 with wins over SHU, Providence, Memphis. As I said before why Nova over Texas A&M who has slightly better wins, record and metrics? That SOR of 58 concerns me.
(60) IOWA 18-13: Hawkeyes missed a chance for a win vs Illinois that likely would have vaulted in the field but now have alot of work to do to state their case. It is a good profile but not a great one. The NET at 60 and SOR at 53 show the issues here predictive and performance wise. 3-8 in Q1 but only one high level Q1 win which was at fading Michigan State. Those other two wins there are Wisconsin and at Northwestern. In Quad 2, 5-3 with a win over Nebraska and neutral site win over SHU gives them 5 wins vs teams in the field. While 8-11 is solid enough, Iowa's Q1/2/3 is just 12-13....maybe a loss too many, getting swept by Maryland, losing to Michigan, Penn State and Indiana. Overall SOS a very strong 19 with a very decent OOC at 97 with the SHU but would like to see a bigger ooc win here. That is just the theme here. Iowa is lacking that take notice win over Purdue that Nebraska and Northwestern have. Will it be too late if it comes in the Big 10 tourney? Iowa draws raging Ohio State first and then a rematch with Illinois. Those wins would give them 5 Q1 wins and 10 in Q1/2 and that might be the tonic they need.
(64) PROVIDENCE 19-12: Friars resume seems to be running out of gas as we get closer to selection sunday. Their game vs Connecticut could have given their resume a big shot in the arm but the Friars folded easily after a hot start. The metrics across the board taking hits. Overall net sagging to 64. While they are 5-8 in Q1, they are a not too good 7-12 for Q1/2 and then for Q1/2/3 they are at 9-12 and being 3 games belown .500 in that grouping is just no bueno for an at large. A shame too because they check some boxes. 5 wins vs teams in field. 2 high level Q1 wins in Marquette and Creighton. Non conference win over Wisconsin. A road win at Seton Hall. No loss outside Q1/2. Still that non conference sos of 242 and a whopping 10 wins in Q4 signal bad vibes for me. They simply did not win enough given their schedule or how they chose to schedule. Now they get Georgetown in the Big East tourney opener with Creighton up next. Again does a conference tourney run matter at this point, personally I do not feel a win over Creighton is going to get them back in. Could a win over Marquette and a trip to the finals do it...perhaps but are they even capable. Remember they have an important player and the compete knows this.
(38) WAKE FOREST 19-12: Deacons continue to vacillate from in to dead to okay maybe. They followed up their court storming win over Duke with a bad but still Q2 loss at Notre Dame. Then they had every right to be thought out of contention after losing a Q3 home game to Georgia Tech at the buzzer last week. Yet Wake came back home scoring an important Quad 1 victory over Clemson to put themselves back in position. That Q1 win was more than needed, even with it their mark sits at just 2-5. 6-6 in Q2 shows a win over Florida OOC and a win over Virginia making up 4 wins vs teams in the field. There are splits with bubbles Pitt and Va Tech here. But still its alot of losing in Q2...that 8-11 mark is not the same as Iowa's 8-11. Losses to mediocrity like Georgia, LSU, FSU plus a loss to fading bubble Utah. While their overall net is solid at 38, the strength of record is a concerning 62. The road mark is a big red flag at 2-9 as their best road win was at BC. The non conference sos of 254 aint so hot either. Ga Tech/ND winner await in the ACC tourney and then a matchup with Pitt in the quarters. I cannot see how Wake can get in without that win but the question is that win enough to push them in....Carolina could await in the semis. Have seen runs in this tourney before not necessarily delivering at large bids.
(44) PITTSBURGH 21-10: Panthers are the little profile that could. They have better metrics and sor (43) than they did last year when they were a last 4 in selection. However their overall resume seems to be in worse shape. For starters, the big red flashing signal is the non conference sos of 342. Keep in mind there are only 362 schools. There has never been a school receiving an at large bid with a OOC SOS this poor so any analysis of Pitt starts with the idea that this would be history making. Now to their credit they have two very good road wins in Q1 over Duke and Virginia and the committee loves Q1 road wins. Unfortunately that is all they have in that 2-6 Quad 1 mark. It is a willing 5-2 in Q2 but no other wins vs teams in field. Wins vs bubbles Wake/Va Tech. Note they lost at Wake by 35! That 7-8 Q1/2 is similar to the 7-9 from last year that got them. Last year they had 2 non conference wins of note, this year their best is Q3 WVU. 2 Q3 losses, the one to Syracuse isnt all that bad but the one to Missouri is. Unbelievably Pitt is seeded 4th and awaits a rubber match vs Wake. Without that win, Pitt has no shot, With the win things become interesting with UNC up next but again can resume be built in a few days. I just do not see the committee ignoring that 342 number.
(70) KANSAS STATE 18-13: Wildcats keep hanging around and why not they do have some very good wins on their resume. While the NET flat out sucks at 70 the worst of all bubble schools, their SOR is a more foregiving 50. Its a much better resume than bracketologists are giving them credit for. KSU is 4-7 in Quad 1 with 4 very high level home wins vs a who's who of the Big 12: Iowa State, Baylor, BYU and Kansas. 4-6 in Q2 show their best OOC wins over Big East bubbles Villanova and Providence. 8-13 in Q1/2 is getting to that unwieldly mark but at least they even things up at 13-13 in Q1/2/3. Let us note there are no losses outside Q2. Though that does not mean that those losses in Q2 to Okie State, USC and Miami are not damaging to their profile. Another school where one or two more reversals in a game could have them right on the cut line. Their overall sos is 23 buoyed by Big 12 play but down at 223 OOC. Most crushing seems to the be the 2-8 road mark which is 0-7 in Quad 1. They draw Texas in their first Big 12 game with Iowa State waiting in the wings. I suppose a path there if they can pull off those 2.
(54) OHIO STATE 19-12: The Buckeyes are the zombie profile of 2024. With their head coach canned and spinning their wheels after losing 9 of 11, at the time it was safe to say, OSU was headed to a sub 500 season playing out the string. Yet that did not happen. An incredible upset win over Purdue sparked an unlikey turnaround that has seen them win 5 of 6 and unbelievably at least put them in distant consideration for a tourney bid. Perhaps its that one loss at Minnesota in the stretch that may end up derailing this late push. Buckeyes are 3-6 in Q1 having a delicious pair of wins over Purdue/Alabama. There is an addition high level Q1 win at Michigan State. Q2 shows a win over Nebraska giving them 4 wins vs teams in the field. And that could be 6 with Merrimack/Oakland as projected AQs. However here is the problem. Just 2-5 in that quadrant making for a woeful 5-11 in Q1/2. That simply is not going to get it done. Now there is only one relative bad loss to Indiana in Q3 and I will say that the overall Q3 mark of 9-1 does pique my interest. OSU made a silly run from nowhere to the Big 10 semis last year and they might be ready to do the same this year. Meet Iowa in first game then a possible matchup with Illinois. Get those two and it helps but again you cannot make a resume in a few days in the conference tourney. If you are not on that last 4 or even 6 line heading into conference tourney action, recent history is showing your run will be futile.
(69) MEMPHIS 22-9: Tigers having been hanging around the outskirts of the bubble. Never quite in the last 4 out but an intriguing enough profile to not dismiss out of hand. AAC is just the 9th rated conference this season the idea of a guaranteed 2nd bid does not have much weight as in past years especially with Houston gone to the Big 12. . FAU in line for a possible at large. Memphis missed an opportunity and really needed to win at FAU on Saturday which would have completed the sweep over the Owls. 2-3 in Q1 with wins over Clemson and Texas A&M and 4-4 in Q2 with wins over FAU and Virginia give them a very solid 4 wins vs teams in the field. While I dont like the Q2 losses to Tulane/UAB, there are a whopping 11 wins in Q3 and that sole Q3 loss to USF is hardly a negative. The Q4 loss to Rice though is probably the death shot on the resume. They are seeded 5th missing out on the double bye and drawing the winner of Wichita State/Rice with a potential quarterfinal matchup with UAB and then maybe a shot at USF in the semis. Get to the finals and lose to FAU at 25-10 and they may be an intriguing candidate.
(52) UTAH 18-13: Utes went from last team in to out of the field after going 0-2 to the Oregon schools. An interesting 4-8 in Quad 1 games. 2 very good non conference wins over BYU and St Marys. 4-3 in Q2 so 8-11 Q1/2 showing a Q2 win over Washington State, a split with bubble in Colorado, a loss to last 2 in Saint Johns but a win to bubble Wake. 4 wins vs teams in the field. 2 Q3 losses hurt to ASU and the most recent the worst of all at Oregon State. The Utes even with that win at STMU have a red flag 2-9 road mark. SOR is an unwilling 68. Good things here but enough bad that is damaging. Will be very tough now to reverse course, make a run and move themselves back in considering this is a team that has lost 8 of its last 12. ASU up first in the Pac 12 and potential matchups with Colorado and Washington State loom as quality win opportunities. But is getting to the Pac 12 finals a case of too little too late? I would tend to think so.
(66) BUTLER 17-13: Bulldogs fate was all but sealed with hideous February stretch where they dropped 6 of 7. Yet wins in their last 2 at least leave a light flickering. Do not sleep on the fact there are some big wins on this profile. 4 wins vs teams in field: Creighton, Marquette in league and very fine ones vs Boise State and Texas Tech OOC. 4-11 in Quad 1 and 4-2 in Quad 2 makes for a bulky loss 8-13 in Q1/2. While they were swept by bubbles SHU and SJU, they split with Nova/PC. Here is the thing. Notice there is no loss outside Q2. Their worst loss is at Seton Hall a tourney team. Perhaps if one result had gone the other way, the Bulldogs would be sitting very close to the cut line. Yet their path now seems an impossible task. Xavier in the first round of Big East tourney followed by a matchup with UConn. A win there would elevate their profile yet I adament by watching the last few years, the selection committee may not be paying attention to "making your resume type wins" when it comes to conference tourneys. In the end a hole too deep to dig out of.
(56) VIRGINIA TECH 18-13: Been trying to remove the Hokies from the bubble analysis for weeks now but they sure are pesky. If they could take the good from their resume with the good from the Pitt resume, it would make for NCAA worthy resume. The good here refers to their 2 excellent high end non conference wins over Iowa State and Boise State. An additional Quad 1 win over Clemson makes for the 3-8 Q1 mark. Big issue is just not enough winning and too much losing. Quad 2 mark is only 3-4 giving a non starter 6-12 Q1/2 record. Splits with Wake and Vriginia. Losses to Notre Dame and FSU, Getting swept by Miami one of which makes for their only Q3 loss. Hokies just could not find their way on the road and that is evident in that 2-9 road mark with just a single Q2 road win at NC State. SOS stuff is fine at 49/38 which is way better than Wake or Pitt. Ultimately though they will enter selection sunday with 14 losses and they simply do not have enough quality wins to overcome that. Florida State up first and then a meeting with UNC so I suppose until that game they hang around.
LAST FOUR BYES: OKLAHOMA, MICHIGAN STATE, MISSISSIPPI STATE, SETON HALL
LAST FOUR IN: TEXAS A & M, SAINT JOHN'S, COLORADO, VIRGINIA
FIRST FOUR OUT: INDIANA STATE, NEW MEXICO, VILLANOVA, IOWA
NEXT SIX OUT: PROVIDENCE, WAKE FOREST, PITTSBURGH, KANSAS STATE, OHIO STATE, MEMPHIS
LIFE SUPPORT: UTAH, BUTLER, VIRGINIA TECH
ONE SEEDS
- CONNECTICUT*
- PURDUE*
- HOUSTON*
- TENNESSEE*
TWO SEEDS
- NORTH CAROLINA*
- ARIZONA*
- IOWA STATE
- MARQUETTE
THREE SEEDS
- BAYLOR
- KANSAS
- CREIGHTON
- DUKE
FOUR SEEDS
- ALABAMA
- ILLINOIS
- KENTUCKY
- AUBURN
FIVE SEEDS
- BYU
- SAN DIEGO STATE
- CLEMSON
- UTAH STATE*
SIX SEEDS
- SOUTH CAROLINA
- WISCONSIN
- DAYTON
- WASHINGTON STATE
SEVEN SEEDS
- TEXAS TECH
- NEVADA
- FLORIDA
- SAINT MARY'S*
EIGHT SEEDS
- BOISE STATE
- GONZAGA
- TEXAS
- NORTHWESTERN
NINE SEEDS
- NEBRASKA
- FLORIDA ATLANTIC
(40) TCU 20-11: Horned Frogs could have locked themselves in but suffered a head scratching home loss to Central Florida over the weekend. TCU has not beaten a tourney team since January 30 and its showing on their resume. Of course there is Wonka Bar type win over Houston that highlights the resume but do not forget about an important high end Q1 road win at Baylor. An additional Q1 win over Texas Tech and Q2 over Oklahoma gives the Frogs 4 wins vs the field. The 4-10 mark in Q1 is pretty bulky in the loss column. Q2 is just 3-1. No loss outside Q2 and just one loss outside Q1 is tough to criticize yet 7-11 isnt that hot a record and likely dings their seeding. That non conference sos of 322 is unheard of for an large. Best OOC win was just Arizona State. Would not say they are in real trouble of missing the field (see their SOR of 36) but their first round Big 12 game is Oklahoma a school just below them in the pecking order. A loss there and TCU moving down to a 10 and then perhaps forced down into those first four games.
TEN SEEDS
(43) OKLAHOMA 20-11: Sooners were very fortunate to escape with a home win vs Cincy earlier in the week in overtime. That was enough to keep them above the cut line for now but 5 losses in their last 7 have landed them in a spot where they cannot feel totally safe. 4-11 in Q1 shows that the Sooners have played some top competition. Their SOR is a fine 29 and their overall sos is 21. No losses outside of Q1 but its still showing they lose more often than not vs top tier schools. Consider only 2 of those 4 Q1 wins are to tourney teams...home wins to BYU and Iowa State. Then consider there are no other wins vs teams in the field on this resume. 5-0 in Q2 shows wins over bubbles Iowa/Providence so that is plus. 9-11 vs Q1/2, 12-11 vs Q1/2/3. The meeting with TCU in the first round of the Big 12 tourney will have implications for both teams and do note OU lost to the Frogs in their only meeting of the season. Would do themselves well to stay above the fray .
(25) MICHIGAN STATE 18-13: Tom Izzo has taken Michigan State to 25 consecutive NCAA tournaments but it looks like its time to start worrying in East Lansing about that streak possibly being broken. 4 losses in the last 5 games, 3 of them to teams not headed to the NCAA has pushed their loss total to the bulky range. The win over Northwestern certainly helped but they followed it up with a less than impressive effort at Indiana so here we are. 3-8 in Q1 is highlighted by a neutral site win over Baylor and a home win over Illinois. There is an important win over right on the bubble Indiana State that is nice to have in their back pocket. 5-5 in Q2 shows their third win vs team in field Northwestern. Only 3 wins vs teams in field is sort of weak. That 8-13 Q1/2 number is both good and bad. Its shows they are struggling vs top competiton but also showing they have not lost to anyone outside of Q2. That ultimately could be the key along with the SOS numbers of 18/40 being very willing. Net metric great at 25 but SOR less so at 44. There would be some years this resume would not pass the test. This year they may slide by as long as they can handle Minnesota in their first Big 10 tourney game. A loss puts them at 18-14 and a prime first four candidate and a ominous danger of being sucked right out of the field.
(42) MISSISSIPPI STATE 19-12: Bulldogs finished their end of season gauntlet 0-4 and thats why they find themselves in a bit of danger. That win over Tennessee is a beacon light on their profile. 4-8 in Quad 1 also includes a win over Auburn plus strong non conference neutral site wins over Northwestern and Washington State. That would seem to make them good to go right? Well MSU is just 2-3 in Q2 and that puts them a less than impressive 6-11 in Q1/2 games. Ga Tech/Ole Miss may be Q2 losses but.... Also keep in mind there is really bad Quad 4 loss home loss to Southern. 13 of 19 wins coming from Q3/4 does raise concerns. The SOR has fallen to 52. While they have those quality neutral site wins, the road mark of 2-8 shows a win at LSU as their best. A troubling SEC tourney draw awaits. Slotted as the 8 seed they get LSU with Tennessee waiting in the wings. Is the LSU game a must win? I tend to think so. With those red flags, I have seen profiles like this passed over even with those good wins. The Bulldogs may not have to beat Tennessee but winning would make it academic and keep them from slipping into those first four games.
(62) SETON HALL 20-11: Pirates got that huge win over Villanova to give them a leg up in a very bulky 4 school Big East bubble race. However the Pirates cannot be resting comfortably. That win over Connecticut is worth perhaps 3 wins and the Pirates will feed off of every drop of it. 5-7 in Quad 1 is very good along the bubble. Included are wins vs Marquette and over St Johns. Pirates have the sweep over the Johnnies and with St Johns projected just in the field, that gives them 4 win vs the field for now. 9-10 in Q1/2 is still very strong. Split with Providence/Nova. Loss to bubble Iowa. Out of conference is very poor for the Pirates. Missouri in Q3 is their best win. USC is now just a Q2 loss and there is a bad Q3 home loss to Rutgers they would really want back. Not a good thing that now 9 of their wins are in Q4 and that with their sos of 228 probably conspires to hold their NET metric down at 62 which is the lowest of any at large school selected this year. Finished 4th in the Big East and will get St John's in an enormous bubble matchup in the Big East tourney. The game likely is a must win for St John's but the Pirates could sustain this loss given those 2 high profile wins they have though raising the liklihood of a first four appearance. The SOR at 34 is very encouraging for them while at odds with the overall NET. Its likely to cause seeding uncertainty here. Pirates with a better NET might be projected a 9 seed now, they still might get there but the committee has shown that those wobbly NETs give schools a seeding ding so I would hesistate to put them higher.
ELEVEN SEEDS
DRAKE*
(48) PRINCETON* 22-3: Tigers are the projected AQ from the Ivy League. Brown up next in the Ivy semis folllowed by Yale/Cornell in the Ivy finals. The Ivies have never received an at large and despite Princeton's gaudy record and overall net at 48 with a SOR of 30, until it happens I have to bet against it. Tough to give a bid to a team that has not even played a Q1 game this year. 20 of 22 wins coming from Q3/4. Just 2-3 in Q2 with losses to Yale/Cornell/St Joes and wins over just Duquense/Hofstra. That just does not seem bid worthy. Yet the Tigers will be the heavy faves to win the Ivy tourney and as an 11 will be a nightmare for any of the projected 6 seeds listed above.
(51) VIRGINIA 22-9: Starting to make peace with the Cavs resume. It not overwhelming and they have looked awful offensively down the stretch but the reality is they might have done just enough. A weak 2-6 in Quad 1 highlighted by a win at Clemson and a neutral site win over Florida. Q2 at 6-3 puts their Q1/2 mark at 8-9 which solidly fits here. Wins over bubbles Texas A&M, Wake, Va Tech. Loss to bubble Pitt. Some plusses here are 4 Q1/2 road wins and no loss outside Q2 albeit losing to Notre Dame should never been considered anything other than a bad loss this year. A sneaky thing here that most overlook is the 8-0 Q3 mark pushing them to 16-9 vs Q1/2/3. When you compare it to some other bloated power 6 schools, UVAs mark stands out. I will note there are two 25 point plus losses to bubbles Memphis and Va Tech in Q1. Those are a really bad look for them and likely the reason their metrics are this low with their record. That could leave them vulnerable seeding wise and possibly stuck in the first four loop. SOR of record very very willing at 32. The big positive for them is they were seeded 3rd in the ACC tourney....barring a BC upset of Clemson, losing to the Tigers in the ACC quarters would not be a bad loss. A win there of course makes it academic...not so sure though they have to win but remember Wake/Pitt also lurking out there as bubbles.
(27) COLORADO 22-9: Like with the Cavs, its time to come on board and admit the obvious. Barring a loss to Utah/Arizona State in the Pac 12 quarters, the Buffs will be dancing. Overall net metric at 27 and power 6 schools do not get left out with numbers inside the top 30. SOR has vaulted up to a palatable 42 narrowing the gulf between their NET. 2-5 in Q1 shows win at just Oregon/Wash NIT teams. That 7-4 Q2 mark brings that Q1/2 record to a solid 9-9. That is where their best win over Washington State resides. An additional win over A10 AQ Richmond is helpful. Split with bubble Utah. I cannot say I like the losses to FSU, UCLA. Cal and ASU in Q2 but the reality is there are no losses here outside Q2. If I were doing the selections this would not be a NCAA at large selection but I am not on the committee. The committee has shown they value these clean profiles that also can rack up some Q3 wins and push that Q1/2/3 like the 15-9 one you see here. Conference affiliation does not matter so they say but you cannot tell me the Pac 12 would only get 2 as the 6th rated conference while the 7th rated Mountain West gets 6.
(39) SAINT JOHN'S 19-12: Johnnies resume has taken some wild swings in the past couple weeks and looks like its on the downward swing again. SJU did take care of Big East autowins De Paul and Georgetown this week but in the meantime two losses by Nova and Utah really put a crimp in the strength of their profile. Redmen are left with a sole win vs a team in the field. Its a really good one in Creighton. Yet its still pretty favorable that they have 6 wins vs bubble schools: 2x Nova, 2x Butler, Utah, Providence. The 3-9 mark in Q1 is weak but 6-2 in Q2 makes up for it to push the Q1/2 stuff to a very solid 9-11. A Quad 2 loss to BC might be one they regret but even worse was the Q3 loss to woebegone Michigan. Their SOR is borderline at 47. Overall sos down to 34 after those recent 2 and non conference sos of 183 is just barely passable. Keep in mind the Red Storm were swept by bubble Seton Hall who simply has better wins than them. Big quarterfinal matchup with the Pirates and it is one SJU just has to get to stay in the field. Might not make it out of first four without an additional win.
(46) TEXAS A & M 18-13: Aggies have played their way back into the field although everything depends on just how forgiving the selection committee will be when it comes to looking at their 4 Quad 3 losses. A ton of good here....5-6 in Q1, 6-3 in Q2 for an awesome 11-9 Q1/2. Those are superlative numbers for any school in the field let alone a bubble school. 3 wins vs projected top 4 seeds: Tennessee, Iowa State and Kentucky. 5 wins vs teams in the field when you add in the Q2 wins over Florida and Mississippi State. Schedule strength vs strong here at 17 overall and 21 non conference. Their 5 game February swoon sank the resume but 3 wins to close out the year have at least pushed them back to 13-13 in Q1/2/3. The 4 Q3 losses are an ugly stain. Losses to Vandy, Arkansas, LSU, and Ole Miss. That Q2 road loss to Arky isnt good either. SOR has risen back to a workable 45. Aggies have the goods to get in the field I am sure of that, what I am not sure of is how the committee will see those 4 Quad 3 losses. Its been said that schools have received bids with 4 Q3 losses or maybe a split of 3 Q3 and a Q4 but in my research I have not actually found which schools they were. Note the similarities to Villanova's resume who has only 3 Q3 losses but the big advantage is having 13 losses going into the conference tourney as opposed to Nova's 14. 14 loss schools do not make the tourney if they have the wins, while 15 loss schools, I believe only once. A&M at least must beat Ole Miss in the opening round of the SEC tourney. Next up is Kentucky and yeah a win there would likely make it too much for the selection committee to pass them up.
TWELVE SEEDS
(78) SOUTH FLORIDA* 23-6: Bulls are projected AQ from the AAC though they will not be favorites to win that tourney. There was some momentum building for a possible at large case but that was swiftly halted with a Q3 road loss at Tulsa. Yes it was only their second conference defeat but the problem here stems from 2 Q4 non conference home losses to Maine and Central Michgan. Hard enough to overcome 2 bad losses but now 3. The reality is 17 of their 23 wins comes from Q3/4 and there is no way to avoid that 319 NC SOS. 1-0 in Quad 1 but thats over distant bubble Memphis. Their best win was actually Florida Atlantic in Quad 2 so they can take some confidence that they can still win this tourney. The Q2 mark is a decent 5-3 but still shows losses to middling programs like UMass and Hofstra. Next up will be the winner of Tulsa/ECarolina and then a potential matchup with Memphis avoiding FAU until the finals. Will revisit then but it is not looking good.
(71) RICHMOND* 23-8: Spiders are the projected AQ from the Atlantic 10. Their at large chances took a hit with a road loss at George Mason, only a Q2 loss but still damaging for a marginal profile. The A10 is the 9th rated conference and at time has been given a 2nd or 3rd bid. Reality is there is just the win in Q1 (1-2) over Dayton to point to. Q2 is 4-4 with wins over the likes of UNLV and Loyola but losses to BC and Northern Iowa. The real damage is 2 Q3 losses to UMass and Wichita State. 18 of 23 wins coming from Q3/4 is not a good look. Spiders draw will avoid Dayton/Loyola until the finals so it is not like they can add additonal moving the needle wins before the final. Let's see what happens when we get there.
(53) GRAND CANYON* 26-4: Lopes are the projected AQ from the WAC. Have a Q1 win over San Diego State and a Q2 over San Fransisco. 1-1 in Q1 also shows a loss to South Carolina, 2-1 in Q2. Problem is 23 of 26 are Q3/4 and 14 alone in Q4. 2 Q3 losses...perhaps just one too many may be a bridge too far for an at large selection. Losing to 2nd place Tarleton State can be forgiven but its the hideous loss at Abilene Christian the fatal blow here. Will at least be on the board for consideration.
(55) JAMES MADISON* 29-3: Dukes are now the projected AQ from the Sun Belt. James Madison has advanced to the finals of the Sun Belt and will take on Arkansas State who upset regular season champ Appalachian State. At large chances not good given that its Q3 Arky State rather than Q1 Appalachian they meet in final. JMU has a Q1 win over Michigan State but two losses to Appalachian, one in each quad..just 1-2 in Q1/2 is a major red flag here. 28 wins in Q3/4 and an unwiedly 22 in Q4 itself...WOW! The Quad 4 loss to Southern Mississippi is one they will be regretting. Non conference sos of 333. So much working against any inclusion of a little guy here.
THIRTEEN SEEDS
MC NEESE STATE*
SAMFORD*
UC IRVINE*
CHARLESTON*
FOURTEEN SEEDS
TOLEDO*
VERMONT*
OAKLAND*
MOREHEAD STATE*
FIFTEEN SEEDS
COLGATE*
SAM HOUSTON STATE*
MONTANA*
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE*
SIXTEEN SEEDS
STETSON*
QUINNIPIAC*
LONGWOOD*
MERRIMACK*
NORFOLK STATE*
GRAMBLING STATE*
BUBBLE OUT
(29) INDIANA STATE 27-6: Sycamores rally vs Drake in the Missouri Valley tourney finals fell short and now the regular season champ of the MVC fate rest in the hands of the selection committee. Will they or won't they is always a judgment call when it comes to these midmajors who win their regular season with gaudy records. Note the Missouri Valley is the 10th rated conference this year putting ahead of the WCC and just behind the AAC. In 2019 Belmont with the same regular and a regular season co title in a worse league received an at large bid and a spot in the first four games. ISU's biggest issue is the only win they have vs a team in the field is Drake who they went 1-2 against. Though there may be another in MAC projected AQ Toledo. Just 1-4 in Q1 and that win was at Bradley. A better 4-1 in Q2 but does another win over Bradley and vs the likes of Northern Iowa and Belmont move the needle. They did schedule Michigan State and Alabama both losses. The SOS of 129/188 is not all that bad for a midmajor. 22 of their 27 wins are coming from Q3/4. There is a Q4 home loss to Illinois which is just one blemish out of the top 2 quads but with the margins so razor thin along the bubble that could be the difference between last team out or last team in. Never a good spot to be right on the cut line with no more games to play. All they can do is root against the teams below them. Do not forget 2 bids are being taken up by USF and Richmond and those two are not favorites to win their conference tourneys so something to watch evolve if one or even two of these spots open up. Keep in mind while the NET seems inflated at 29, their SOR at 38 is right in line with an at large bid.
(28) NEW MEXICO 21-9: Lobos have the best NET of any team left out of the field. Yet their SOR of 71 portends to what could be their eventual fate. Lobos have had their moments this season. Their sweep of Nevada with one of those games a 34 point win look better each day wiht the Wolfpack's recent surge. They do have all the requisite wins vs the rest of the Mountain West in the field teams: San Diego State, Utah State, Colorado State. Yet that Q1 does come out to just 2-7. Only 4-1 in Q2 so 6-8 in Q1/2 is much weaker than the Mountain West counterparts as the conference tries to land a record 6 conference bids. There are two sneaky good wins over AQ projected UC Irvine and Toledo...could give them potentially 7 wins vs schools in the field. Despite those wins, their non conference sos comes in at just 268. Then the most notable red flag, a horrific home defeat to 269 Air Force in Quad 4. Not convinced that the Mountain West is deserving of 6 and if the committee feels that way (even though they are not suppose to consider conference affiliation), it is easy to leave the Lobos out. Still an opportunity to boost their profile. Draw Air Force in the first round of the tourney and then a matchup with Boise State with Nevada/CSU waiting in the wing. Flat out they need to beat Boise in the quarters.
(33) VILLANOVA 17-14: In the past few weeks, the Cats did so much work to overcome their resume warts in the past few weeks only to come crashing down to earth. The loss at Seton Hall was a missed opportunity to sweep the Pirates and get a leg up on them moving forward. The loss at home to Creighton in heartbreaking fashion at the buzzer not only prevented Nova from becoming an at large lock but it took their profile into no man's land. Now with 14 losses, their next loss is their 15th. I can only find one school Vandy I believe it was 2017 who received an at large with a 19-15 record. It just does not happen. To do my best Jerry Palm imitation, it is hard to bet against history. Not only that but very few schools get at larges only 3 games above 500 meaning Nova will need two. Fortunately for them they actually benefit by being seeded 6th and playing De Paul in the Big East tourney opener, then get Marquette. If they can get to 19-15 then we shall see if they can make rare history. The Cats have no one to blame but themselves. 3 hideous Q3 losses to Penn, Drexel and St Joe's. One less lose would make all the difference here. The Cats have the wins and the strong Q1/2 numbers and sos (15/73) to get a bid. 4-10 in Q1 includes wins over North Carolina, at Creighton, Texas Tech and at bubble Providence. Q2 at 5-1 with wins over SHU, Providence, Memphis. As I said before why Nova over Texas A&M who has slightly better wins, record and metrics? That SOR of 58 concerns me.
(60) IOWA 18-13: Hawkeyes missed a chance for a win vs Illinois that likely would have vaulted in the field but now have alot of work to do to state their case. It is a good profile but not a great one. The NET at 60 and SOR at 53 show the issues here predictive and performance wise. 3-8 in Q1 but only one high level Q1 win which was at fading Michigan State. Those other two wins there are Wisconsin and at Northwestern. In Quad 2, 5-3 with a win over Nebraska and neutral site win over SHU gives them 5 wins vs teams in the field. While 8-11 is solid enough, Iowa's Q1/2/3 is just 12-13....maybe a loss too many, getting swept by Maryland, losing to Michigan, Penn State and Indiana. Overall SOS a very strong 19 with a very decent OOC at 97 with the SHU but would like to see a bigger ooc win here. That is just the theme here. Iowa is lacking that take notice win over Purdue that Nebraska and Northwestern have. Will it be too late if it comes in the Big 10 tourney? Iowa draws raging Ohio State first and then a rematch with Illinois. Those wins would give them 5 Q1 wins and 10 in Q1/2 and that might be the tonic they need.
(64) PROVIDENCE 19-12: Friars resume seems to be running out of gas as we get closer to selection sunday. Their game vs Connecticut could have given their resume a big shot in the arm but the Friars folded easily after a hot start. The metrics across the board taking hits. Overall net sagging to 64. While they are 5-8 in Q1, they are a not too good 7-12 for Q1/2 and then for Q1/2/3 they are at 9-12 and being 3 games belown .500 in that grouping is just no bueno for an at large. A shame too because they check some boxes. 5 wins vs teams in field. 2 high level Q1 wins in Marquette and Creighton. Non conference win over Wisconsin. A road win at Seton Hall. No loss outside Q1/2. Still that non conference sos of 242 and a whopping 10 wins in Q4 signal bad vibes for me. They simply did not win enough given their schedule or how they chose to schedule. Now they get Georgetown in the Big East tourney opener with Creighton up next. Again does a conference tourney run matter at this point, personally I do not feel a win over Creighton is going to get them back in. Could a win over Marquette and a trip to the finals do it...perhaps but are they even capable. Remember they have an important player and the compete knows this.
(38) WAKE FOREST 19-12: Deacons continue to vacillate from in to dead to okay maybe. They followed up their court storming win over Duke with a bad but still Q2 loss at Notre Dame. Then they had every right to be thought out of contention after losing a Q3 home game to Georgia Tech at the buzzer last week. Yet Wake came back home scoring an important Quad 1 victory over Clemson to put themselves back in position. That Q1 win was more than needed, even with it their mark sits at just 2-5. 6-6 in Q2 shows a win over Florida OOC and a win over Virginia making up 4 wins vs teams in the field. There are splits with bubbles Pitt and Va Tech here. But still its alot of losing in Q2...that 8-11 mark is not the same as Iowa's 8-11. Losses to mediocrity like Georgia, LSU, FSU plus a loss to fading bubble Utah. While their overall net is solid at 38, the strength of record is a concerning 62. The road mark is a big red flag at 2-9 as their best road win was at BC. The non conference sos of 254 aint so hot either. Ga Tech/ND winner await in the ACC tourney and then a matchup with Pitt in the quarters. I cannot see how Wake can get in without that win but the question is that win enough to push them in....Carolina could await in the semis. Have seen runs in this tourney before not necessarily delivering at large bids.
(44) PITTSBURGH 21-10: Panthers are the little profile that could. They have better metrics and sor (43) than they did last year when they were a last 4 in selection. However their overall resume seems to be in worse shape. For starters, the big red flashing signal is the non conference sos of 342. Keep in mind there are only 362 schools. There has never been a school receiving an at large bid with a OOC SOS this poor so any analysis of Pitt starts with the idea that this would be history making. Now to their credit they have two very good road wins in Q1 over Duke and Virginia and the committee loves Q1 road wins. Unfortunately that is all they have in that 2-6 Quad 1 mark. It is a willing 5-2 in Q2 but no other wins vs teams in field. Wins vs bubbles Wake/Va Tech. Note they lost at Wake by 35! That 7-8 Q1/2 is similar to the 7-9 from last year that got them. Last year they had 2 non conference wins of note, this year their best is Q3 WVU. 2 Q3 losses, the one to Syracuse isnt all that bad but the one to Missouri is. Unbelievably Pitt is seeded 4th and awaits a rubber match vs Wake. Without that win, Pitt has no shot, With the win things become interesting with UNC up next but again can resume be built in a few days. I just do not see the committee ignoring that 342 number.
(70) KANSAS STATE 18-13: Wildcats keep hanging around and why not they do have some very good wins on their resume. While the NET flat out sucks at 70 the worst of all bubble schools, their SOR is a more foregiving 50. Its a much better resume than bracketologists are giving them credit for. KSU is 4-7 in Quad 1 with 4 very high level home wins vs a who's who of the Big 12: Iowa State, Baylor, BYU and Kansas. 4-6 in Q2 show their best OOC wins over Big East bubbles Villanova and Providence. 8-13 in Q1/2 is getting to that unwieldly mark but at least they even things up at 13-13 in Q1/2/3. Let us note there are no losses outside Q2. Though that does not mean that those losses in Q2 to Okie State, USC and Miami are not damaging to their profile. Another school where one or two more reversals in a game could have them right on the cut line. Their overall sos is 23 buoyed by Big 12 play but down at 223 OOC. Most crushing seems to the be the 2-8 road mark which is 0-7 in Quad 1. They draw Texas in their first Big 12 game with Iowa State waiting in the wings. I suppose a path there if they can pull off those 2.
(54) OHIO STATE 19-12: The Buckeyes are the zombie profile of 2024. With their head coach canned and spinning their wheels after losing 9 of 11, at the time it was safe to say, OSU was headed to a sub 500 season playing out the string. Yet that did not happen. An incredible upset win over Purdue sparked an unlikey turnaround that has seen them win 5 of 6 and unbelievably at least put them in distant consideration for a tourney bid. Perhaps its that one loss at Minnesota in the stretch that may end up derailing this late push. Buckeyes are 3-6 in Q1 having a delicious pair of wins over Purdue/Alabama. There is an addition high level Q1 win at Michigan State. Q2 shows a win over Nebraska giving them 4 wins vs teams in the field. And that could be 6 with Merrimack/Oakland as projected AQs. However here is the problem. Just 2-5 in that quadrant making for a woeful 5-11 in Q1/2. That simply is not going to get it done. Now there is only one relative bad loss to Indiana in Q3 and I will say that the overall Q3 mark of 9-1 does pique my interest. OSU made a silly run from nowhere to the Big 10 semis last year and they might be ready to do the same this year. Meet Iowa in first game then a possible matchup with Illinois. Get those two and it helps but again you cannot make a resume in a few days in the conference tourney. If you are not on that last 4 or even 6 line heading into conference tourney action, recent history is showing your run will be futile.
(69) MEMPHIS 22-9: Tigers having been hanging around the outskirts of the bubble. Never quite in the last 4 out but an intriguing enough profile to not dismiss out of hand. AAC is just the 9th rated conference this season the idea of a guaranteed 2nd bid does not have much weight as in past years especially with Houston gone to the Big 12. . FAU in line for a possible at large. Memphis missed an opportunity and really needed to win at FAU on Saturday which would have completed the sweep over the Owls. 2-3 in Q1 with wins over Clemson and Texas A&M and 4-4 in Q2 with wins over FAU and Virginia give them a very solid 4 wins vs teams in the field. While I dont like the Q2 losses to Tulane/UAB, there are a whopping 11 wins in Q3 and that sole Q3 loss to USF is hardly a negative. The Q4 loss to Rice though is probably the death shot on the resume. They are seeded 5th missing out on the double bye and drawing the winner of Wichita State/Rice with a potential quarterfinal matchup with UAB and then maybe a shot at USF in the semis. Get to the finals and lose to FAU at 25-10 and they may be an intriguing candidate.
(52) UTAH 18-13: Utes went from last team in to out of the field after going 0-2 to the Oregon schools. An interesting 4-8 in Quad 1 games. 2 very good non conference wins over BYU and St Marys. 4-3 in Q2 so 8-11 Q1/2 showing a Q2 win over Washington State, a split with bubble in Colorado, a loss to last 2 in Saint Johns but a win to bubble Wake. 4 wins vs teams in the field. 2 Q3 losses hurt to ASU and the most recent the worst of all at Oregon State. The Utes even with that win at STMU have a red flag 2-9 road mark. SOR is an unwilling 68. Good things here but enough bad that is damaging. Will be very tough now to reverse course, make a run and move themselves back in considering this is a team that has lost 8 of its last 12. ASU up first in the Pac 12 and potential matchups with Colorado and Washington State loom as quality win opportunities. But is getting to the Pac 12 finals a case of too little too late? I would tend to think so.
(66) BUTLER 17-13: Bulldogs fate was all but sealed with hideous February stretch where they dropped 6 of 7. Yet wins in their last 2 at least leave a light flickering. Do not sleep on the fact there are some big wins on this profile. 4 wins vs teams in field: Creighton, Marquette in league and very fine ones vs Boise State and Texas Tech OOC. 4-11 in Quad 1 and 4-2 in Quad 2 makes for a bulky loss 8-13 in Q1/2. While they were swept by bubbles SHU and SJU, they split with Nova/PC. Here is the thing. Notice there is no loss outside Q2. Their worst loss is at Seton Hall a tourney team. Perhaps if one result had gone the other way, the Bulldogs would be sitting very close to the cut line. Yet their path now seems an impossible task. Xavier in the first round of Big East tourney followed by a matchup with UConn. A win there would elevate their profile yet I adament by watching the last few years, the selection committee may not be paying attention to "making your resume type wins" when it comes to conference tourneys. In the end a hole too deep to dig out of.
(56) VIRGINIA TECH 18-13: Been trying to remove the Hokies from the bubble analysis for weeks now but they sure are pesky. If they could take the good from their resume with the good from the Pitt resume, it would make for NCAA worthy resume. The good here refers to their 2 excellent high end non conference wins over Iowa State and Boise State. An additional Quad 1 win over Clemson makes for the 3-8 Q1 mark. Big issue is just not enough winning and too much losing. Quad 2 mark is only 3-4 giving a non starter 6-12 Q1/2 record. Splits with Wake and Vriginia. Losses to Notre Dame and FSU, Getting swept by Miami one of which makes for their only Q3 loss. Hokies just could not find their way on the road and that is evident in that 2-9 road mark with just a single Q2 road win at NC State. SOS stuff is fine at 49/38 which is way better than Wake or Pitt. Ultimately though they will enter selection sunday with 14 losses and they simply do not have enough quality wins to overcome that. Florida State up first and then a meeting with UNC so I suppose until that game they hang around.
LAST FOUR BYES: OKLAHOMA, MICHIGAN STATE, MISSISSIPPI STATE, SETON HALL
LAST FOUR IN: TEXAS A & M, SAINT JOHN'S, COLORADO, VIRGINIA
FIRST FOUR OUT: INDIANA STATE, NEW MEXICO, VILLANOVA, IOWA
NEXT SIX OUT: PROVIDENCE, WAKE FOREST, PITTSBURGH, KANSAS STATE, OHIO STATE, MEMPHIS
LIFE SUPPORT: UTAH, BUTLER, VIRGINIA TECH
