2/12: Just a taste of 2024 NCAA Bacatology
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
It’s unlikely the 6 teams in contention are going to get upset by the bottom 3 teams. They all suck. So the problem is these teams keep collecting volume of wins and points in the NET for blowing out DePaul types. The 2 teams that can help bring down the numbers are UNLV (they are decent and can knock off anyone on a given day) and Wyoming on the road (very tough place to play). Another possibility for narrowing it down to the 5 is one team losing out to the other 5 consistently going forward to bump up their loss count.
SDSU is an excellent team and they are 100% at a major disadvantage on the road playing at so many extreme altitude venues.
New Mexico or one of Boise/Nevada can easily not make it giving them 5. I think 50% 5 but 25% 4, 25% 6
heading into Sunday's action.....
FIRST FOUR BYES: BUTLER ,MISSISSIPPI STATE, NEBRASKA, NEW MEXICO
LAST 4 IN: SETON HALL, GONZAGA, PROVIDENCE, NEVADA
FIRST 4 OUT: CINCINNATI, UTAH, MISSISSIPPI, VILLANOVA
NEXT 4 OUT: KANSAS STATE, WAKE FOREST, PITTBURGH, VIRGINIA TECH
ON DECK: SAINT JOHN'S, RUTGERS, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, MEMPHIS
FIRST FOUR BYES: BUTLER ,MISSISSIPPI STATE, NEBRASKA, NEW MEXICO
LAST 4 IN: SETON HALL, GONZAGA, PROVIDENCE, NEVADA
FIRST 4 OUT: CINCINNATI, UTAH, MISSISSIPPI, VILLANOVA
NEXT 4 OUT: KANSAS STATE, WAKE FOREST, PITTBURGH, VIRGINIA TECH
ON DECK: SAINT JOHN'S, RUTGERS, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, MEMPHIS
big clash in the AAC today as league leader South Florida hosts Florida Atlantic. A FAU would make a 3 way tie atop the standings with USF and Charlotte if the latter takes care of Wichita State. Remember my bracket projects USF as AQ from AAC so this result could open up an at large if FAU is slotted as the AQ
St John's has more to GAIN and to LOSE in its matchup with Seton Hall. The Pirates could absorb a loss and still be projected in as last team. St John's profile is slipping as we head down the stretch. A win will not put them in but return them to the next 4 out line
Interesting. Have not seen this South Florida team but leading the conference and on this winning streak deserves a look. Up 10 on this talented FAU team bodes well.
yeah USF has flown under the radar, unfortunatley for them there NET is around 100 and have 2 Q4 losses to Maine and Central Michigan. A win today and the bracketologists who have been avoiding slotting them as the AQ will simply have to if they hold a 2 game lead over FAU.
FAU meanwhile still looks in pretty good shape for an at large due to their non conference performance but they have been a bit wonky in conference play. Some of the games that they win they have to mount major rallies. Pretty tough to keep their concentration and focus based on how they know they have the talent to play with anyone
FAU meanwhile still looks in pretty good shape for an at large due to their non conference performance but they have been a bit wonky in conference play. Some of the games that they win they have to mount major rallies. Pretty tough to keep their concentration and focus based on how they know they have the talent to play with anyone
I dont think it will matter too much. Conference marks are not really looked at. Its about who schools like Providence, Butler, Seton Hall beat in the grouping of UConn, Marquette, Creighton or what they did OOC. SHU beating UConn AND Marquette is such a great asset on another wise just okay profile. Don't forget they took Creighton to a thrlling 3 OT
I don’t know - WVU, Louisville, Oklahoma St and ND really suck too. Michigan isn’t good either but their record is more reflective of not playing anyone bad than anything else. WVU consistently lost to or barely beat bad teams in nonconference.
welcome to the outer fringes of the bubble, Ohio State
SMU boat racing Memphis 58-36 at halftime! If this keeps up we can probably remove the Tigers from any at large contention. SMU with a strong net number but little else wont even get a Q1 or 2 win out of this. Yet they remain as a distant bubble.
SMU boat racing Memphis 58-36 at halftime! If this keeps up we can probably remove the Tigers from any at large contention. SMU with a strong net number but little else wont even get a Q1 or 2 win out of this. Yet they remain as a distant bubble.
I was gonna say what does Ohio State have to do, two of the best wins in the country now with Alabama
Both bubble teams but we want SHU to remain Q1. It's our only good OOC win
they pretty much have to win out...i suppose if they win 4 of 5 and it includes a win at Michigan State they can at least will hanging in for consideration
agree....even if a loss to Purdue, they could run off 5 straight
I dont know where RU lands after this loss but I do know that they and St Johns are not even on the on deck circle so Rutgers is beyond the top 12 bubble teams out. Not good, not good one bit.
the first full BACATOLOGY will be delivered either very late tonight or tomorrow morning
but as it stands for me, Rutgers tumbles from the on deck area 10th team out down to 16th team out. I think I have identified about 26 schools with at least remote chances on the outside of the field so that 62 schools vying for 36 at larges and about 15 of those at larges are pretty much sewn up so 47 schools for 21 spots.
but as it stands for me, Rutgers tumbles from the on deck area 10th team out down to 16th team out. I think I have identified about 26 schools with at least remote chances on the outside of the field so that 62 schools vying for 36 at larges and about 15 of those at larges are pretty much sewn up so 47 schools for 21 spots.
Thank you Bac for all your hard work on this. Don’t know how you find the time but it is greatly appreciated. Keep up the good work.
thanks...i will admit I am a bit deflated after last night so not looking all that forward to the hard work I have ahead later today but still in the end I love doing the bracketology
You and Wachtel, 2 RU guys, have much more credibility in bracketology with me than Lunardi or Palm.
Two questions, if they had beat Minny what number in the on deck circle would you have put RU? Also, if they beat Purdue, where would RU rank in the on deck circle??
Palm is so bad, Lunardi not the most accurate either even though he gets the most attention. Would much rather pay attention to @bac2therac and Brad Wachtel as they’re actually tuned in to the program I care about most for bracketology purposes.
1. definitely in the next four out...probably 6th or 7th team out overall.
2. with a win over Purdue, would also depend on what other teams ahead of RU does but it likely brings RU all the way to last 4 out line with the possibility of actually placing them in believe it our not. If you could pick between winning at Minnesota or at Purdue...of course you go with at Purdue, Yes a win over Purdue is worth at least 12 placings if not more.
3. the problem is even with a win at Purdue, RU would need to win all its home games and then win one of 2 vs Wisky/Nebby...to remain in the field. 18-13 will not cut it even with a win over Purdue.
