Hey BAC.. pinned thread idea.. WHAT WE NEED TO MAKE NCAAs
- Thread starter GoodOl'Rutgers
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19-14 4-4 2-1 6 teams out
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20-13 5-3 2-1 2 teams out
Model is very flawed....bart's probability percentages are a little out of whack PLUS I don't think every game is independent.
I do think there is a chance the committee realizes how much a Q4 loss hurts NET and doesn't weight it that much.
If RU really went 8-6 in Q1 that has to make it tough for the committee.
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Model is very flawed....bart's probability percentages are a little out of whack PLUS I don't think every game is independent.
I do think there is a chance the committee realizes how much a Q4 loss hurts NET and doesn't weight it that much.
If RU really went 8-6 in Q1 that has to make it tough for the committee.
You have to click the DynamaRank box. Otherwise it's assuming that we're still the #98 T-Rank team even after going 5-3. Theoretically possible if the three losses are huge blowouts, but unlikely.20-13 5-3 2-1 2 teams out
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Yes - but in 2019 the Purdue win also was literally our only win away from home period. We do have 2 road wins already against non-contenders and can’t get to 19 without at least 2 more wins away from home (neutral or away). I know Michigan is better than Maryland and Nebraska but in terms of checking a box, we’re not going to be in 2019 territory on that metric.
Meanwhile - we still only beat 3 field teams so far. Is Iowa even a sure fire lock to make the field? They have quite a few landmine games left that they can’t afford to lose. They really don’t have much in terms of signature wins.
If we can’t win them all, I think I want as many of them as possible to be against teams whose names are going to be up on that board in the discussion room (without taking another Q3 loss). Everything except PSU and possibly the first BIG tourney game is going to be Q1 regardless, right?
RU is locked in with 20 wins
Things to watch are the WCC and MWC who each have 4 schools competing for bids. San Francisco seems to have a solid profile and if they beat Gonzaga at home they will get in. BYU is sputtering a bit but the WCC could grab 3. The MVC looks good for Wyoming and Colorado State but Boise State could sneak in too. We could see 6 bid taken up from this league. Murray State looks like a serious at large contender if they dont win the OVC tourney.
Things to watch are the WCC and MWC who each have 4 schools competing for bids. San Francisco seems to have a solid profile and if they beat Gonzaga at home they will get in. BYU is sputtering a bit but the WCC could grab 3. The MVC looks good for Wyoming and Colorado State but Boise State could sneak in too. We could see 6 bid taken up from this league. Murray State looks like a serious at large contender if they dont win the OVC tourney.
I think Iowa has enough metrics if they get to 10-10 in league they will get in. Their resume is very blah. I do expect them to notch a quality win at home somewhere but OOC they only beat Utah State who probably is not in the field this year.
Have to read up on the difference...but that puts us 2 teams out if we go 4-4 2-1...the 19-14 scenario.
The O/U is 1.5 on how many times going forward I flip flop thinking looking at this stuff is a waste of time. I think my cumulative number right now is 3. Another reversal occurred after beating MSU
Bart says:
ADDED: One way I've attempted to automate this is the "DynamaRank" feature. Basically, this estimates changes to power ratings (including NET) based on the changed results. So this box should be checked for any extreme scenarios where a team loses or wins a lot more games than expected.
(So considering Bart is projecting 2-6, I'd say going 5-3 qualifies as a big enough difference. If we finish 18-12/12-8 there is like a 0.1% chance our T-Rank is in the 90s)
Michigan's fate will likely be determined this week....at Penn State, Purdue, Ohio State, 3 games in 5 days
Confirmed by this....
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Planting my flag. Iowa: 2022 NIT ChampionsConfirmed by this....
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So back of the envelope......
17 wins don't bother watching Selection Sunday
18 wins watch for a miracle
19 wins turn it on but dont expect good news
20 wins watch and expect to hear "Rutgers" , but still be nervous
21 wins watch and don't get nervous if 1st 3 brackets are revealed and Rutgers hasnt been selected
Well they also won at Virginia who still has a few cracks at Duke. Virginia beat Providence so their resume would kind of resemble ours if they were to beat Duke (I imagine we don’t want that - best for RU for Duke to win out).
But it’s a blah resume for Iowa and they only have one more home opportunity left against any of the likely tournament teams (Michigan State).
they do not have any losses outside Q2 so its a clean resume. Unless they screw up at home to Nebby it looks like they wont have any losses outside Q2. thats why 10-10 will be good enough on a rather flimsy profile. Their overall NET is remaining strong at 22 and their other computer rankings largely back that up. They will need that Michigan State win but it would be wise for them to win at Michigan too
No. We're getting punished for losing to Layfayette and Umass on a smaller scale.
Also some of those losses to the lower B1G teams especially Minny on road.
no...that game would do absolutely nothing, win/loss record isnt the issue, its the amount of losses that RU has had which is the issue.
We are currently 88 in KenPom, even after MSU. Listen, we can’t be having this conversation after the NW and Minn losses and before the next 6 meat grinder games.
If we go 3-3 then let’s spin up this thread.
If we go 3-3 then let’s spin up this thread.
I think 19 we have a 75/25 chance just eyeballing it now. If we get 18 we are on the bubble whether its right side or not...probably 25/75 but at least we have a dog in the fight
Just for fun I flipped the UMass and Lafayette games in the Torvik tournament calculator and left the rest of the schedule alone. We went from the 39th team out to the 6th team out. That's with us going 18-12 (10-10). It is really hard to overstate just how damaging those two losses were.
Then I left the Lafayette and UMass losses, but flipped the Minnesota and Northwestern games. That only brings us from 39th out to 16th out.
IMO the only way 20 wouldn’t be a lock would be the extremely unlikely scenerio where the loss in the BIG tourney was to a non-contender to close out the season in our 3rd game (say we got blown out by NW or something). I still think we’d get in with the 12 conference wins but I’d feel a little nervous there. We can’t afford more bad losses.
While it may not fool the computers, I'd think the folks in the room on selection Sunday would feel better about a 20 win team, compared to a 19 win team. If we finish the year at 19 wins, not rescheduling will be viewed as a mistake.
not a fan of the Torvik stuff because isnt it relying almost exclusively on computers. There are a slew of teams ahead of RU in the ratings that are not going and simply dont even have a resume. We would have to hand pick those teams out of the discussion.
What if playing at home against Wisconsin on Saturday and then at home against Rider on Monday costs us a chance on the road at Indiana on Wednesday? There is far greater downside to playing that game even if a win was guaranteed. That's extra mileage on the body, less practice and prep time for Indiana, etc. That matters far more.
Actually I just looked at Rider's schedule and there's not even a date that would work without either team playing on back to back days anyway.
You mean teams like Clemson? Or are you talking more about the NMS type 3 loss teams who haven’t played anyone?
The 3 loss teams who beat nobody actually do concern me some and I’m hoping to see all of them pick up a few more losses before their finals (and preferably get their AQs). It’s why I don’t think we’d have a chance at 15 losses. Unfortunately, argument can be made that RU would have more than 4 losses if we played their schedule. We lost to Lafayette and UMass. Needed OT for Lehigh and barely beat Merrimack.
obviously 19 with 2 wins vs PSU is different than 19 wins with 1 against PSU. When I say PSU am talking about a lowly win in B1Gt
because RU isnt winning all their home games and I would rather beat Illinois and Wisconsin
