NWS reduced snowfall to where I thought they would, i..e., to about 10-14" for most of the 95 corridor and areas within 30-40 miles of there, while they reduced far NWNJ and the Poconos/Lehigh Valley to 6-10", due to less precip and the coast to 6-10", due to mixing (and to only a few inches along extreme SNJ. Still waiting for the NWS NYC map.
Well, no map yet, but surprisingly, NWS NYC still says 12-18" still for most of their area, as per below...
National Weather Service New York NY
446 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper low continues to march toward the east coast, with
coastal low development noted just east of the Delmarva.
With an expected track of the sfc low near the 40N/70W
benchmark along with strong deep lift and banded precip, the
stage is set or a major winter storm for the area. Colder and
drier air is in place when compared to previous events. Nam, and
lesser extent GFS along with various ensemble members indicate
slight warming aloft for a possible wintry mix over SE LI, and
perhaps SE CT through the morning. The storm has slowed a bit,
and heavier precip will allow for ample cooling to result in a
changeover by afternoon over these eastern locales. Colder air
will be pulled down from the north as the storm deepens.
Elsewhere, NYC metro including NE NJ, the lower Hudson Valley
and into SW CT, would typically be in the bulls eye of heavier
snow conceptually. Always hard to pinpoint any potential bands,
but generally expect 12 to 18 inches across these locations if
everything pans out as expected (track, thermal profiles, etc).
Temps in the 30s remain steady or fall as the heavier snow
commences. Snow ratios look to be at least 10 to 1, and even 13
to 1 or 15 to 1 is possible interior.
The western extent of the precip shield should keep amounts well
NW down slightly, but a foot or more is possible even up across
those locations.
Winds will be quite gusty, with 40+ mph at times possible.
Blizzard conditions are possible at times, just not quite enough
confidence for that upgrade to the hazard.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As the slow moving storm begins to pull away, heavier snow will
taper from west to east tonight. Once again, 7-12 inches
possible well NW, 12-18 around NYC metro and into SW CT, and
slightly lower totals are expected east due to mixing
initially, and lower snow ratios.
Upton map finally...
The 6Z 12 km and 3 km NAMs are still pretty big hits, so maybe the Euro was an aberration earlier tonight.