OT: Much Too Early Winter Weather- El Niño Snowy Winter Predicted

[Knight Shift]

"El Niño is upon us," Pastelok said. "It came on strong here in late summer, and it will continue to be strong and a dominating factor going into our winter forecast."

According to AccuWeather: El Niño is a large-scale climate phenomenon created when the water temperatures near the equator of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean are above the historical average for months at a time. The change in water temperatures reshapes the jet stream and, ultimately, weather patterns in various parts of the world -- including North America.

Much higher snowfall amounts are predicted this year. These are AccuWeather's predictions:

• Boston: 38-44 inches
• New York City: 18-26 inches
• Philadelphia: 16-24 inches

AccuWeather predicts more snow coming to New Jersey this winter thanks to El Niño

"El Niño ... came on strong [in NJ] in late summer, and it will continue to be strong and a dominating factor going into our winter forecast."

www.app.com

 

[T2Kplus20]

Global warming is AWESOME! Another no-snow winter coming to CNJ this year. Bizatch!
:)

 

[fsg2]

After last year's brilliant record smasher, I'm expecting a shite year.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Global warming is AWESOME! Another no-snow winter coming to CNJ this year. Bizatch!
:)

Damnit, you need to get the nomenclature right: it's Climate Change!!!

 

[mdk01]

Last year was way below normal. And I realize this has nothing do with the weather in January and February, but I find it amusing the prediction was made on an October day where it's 85 degrees.

 

[Brisket and Bourbon]

It may yet become a strong El Niño, but compared to the 5 strongest El Niños (upon onset) this one currently ranks 6th…very weak…don’t believe me? Well see what the nerds at the physical sciences Lab at NOAA have to say:

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

PS: El Niño or La Niña weather consequences do not fully materialize just because we’ve entered the post neutral phase. In order for the full effect of El Niño to be felt, you typically have to be at least 2 SDs or warmer across the entirety of the monitored Pacific sector…we are not even close to that yet (and yes, I fully realize we may yet be, but we are fast approaching the point when we should be that warm, if you’re going to use the 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 as comparisons)

 

[Knight Shift]

Last year was way below normal. And I realize this has nothing do with the weather in January and February, but I find it amusing the prediction was made on an October day where it's 85 degrees.

I am positioning my snowblower at the front of the garage this weekend when I return from Wisconsin. Who's with me? @e5fdny ?

 

[Joey Bags]

My brand new Ariens blower I got Oct 2022 is almost dead from starvation

 

[DJ Spanky]

My brand new Ariens blower I got Oct 2022 is almost dead from starvation

And now it won't work because it's been sitting too long.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I am positioning my snowblower at the front of the garage this weekend when I return from Wisconsin. Who's with me? @e5fdny ?

Getting ready for the winter weather thread season:

Yes, this is from the Trolls movie. :)

 

[koleszar]

My brand new Ariens blower I got Oct 2022 is almost dead from starvation

You got one too? I got the Ariens Professional 32" 420cc in November 2022. Got it shipped to my farm and it's still on the crate and in the box. I have no idea if it even fvcking works.

 

[Morrischiano]

Global warming is AWESOME! Another no-snow winter coming to CNJ this year. Bizatch!
:)

Global warming has already make a negative impact on Americans via higher insurance premiums, higher food costs and greater incidences of destructive storms. But yeah, cheer it on.

 

[Knight Shift]

Global warming has already make a negative impact on Americans via higher insurance premiums, higher food costs and greater incidences of destructive storms. But yeah, cheer it on.

Higher food costs have more to do with farmers getting continually screwed over and hyperinflation than climate change.

-Home prices have increased by 30% since 2021
-Rent has increased by 25% since 2021
-Eviction filings are 50% higher since 2021
-5.5M kicked off medicaid -27.6M lack healthcare
-Childhood poverty has jumped from 5.2% to 12.4% since 2021

Since 2021--- wonder what happened since 2021?

 

[T2Kplus20]

Global warming has already make a negative impact on Americans via higher insurance premiums, higher food costs and greater incidences of destructive storms. But yeah, cheer it on.

Been loving these mild NJ winters!

 

[Joey Bags]

You got one too? I got the Ariens Professional 32" 420cc in November 2022. Got it shipped to my farm and it's still on the crate and in the box. I have no idea if it even fvcking works.

Damn that’s a big boy, I got a 24” king of snow. The dealer shipped it full of fuel. Did a 15 min test run in November and then mothballed it. Put the required amount of stabilizer in and ran it with the fuel line off until the carb was dry. At least I’ll have a complimentary full tank for the first storm.

 

[koleszar]

Damn that’s a big boy, I got a 24” king of snow. The dealer shipped it full of fuel. Did a 15 min test run in November and then mothballed it. Put the required amount of stabilizer in and ran it with the fuel line off until the carb was dry. At least I’ll have a complimentary full tank for the first storm.

It's for digging out animals on the farm, so if it ever does snow again, I have a lot of snow to move. Got tired of using the front loader and tearing up pastures. Then having to fix it every year, it became a real pain in the ass. Figured this would be easier.

 

[RUtix4me]

Is this now the official winters season weather thread?

 

[RUPete]

The NYC prediction is near normal. The question is how do you get there? Is it one big dump or a series of more moderate storms?

 

[Joey Bags]

The NYC prediction is near normal. The question is how do you get there? Is it one big dump or a series of more moderate storms?

Oddly enough we rarely, if ever, come close to the seasonal average in the NYC metro. We either go way under average or way above average which averaged out is around 33” a year. Typically we follow an outlier low year with a slightly or significantly above average year.

 

[RUPete]

Oddly enough we rarely, if ever, come close to the seasonal average in the NYC metro. We either go way under average or way above average which averaged out is around 33” a year. Typically we follow an outlier low year with a slightly or significantly above average year.

Do you get the feeling this will be an above average year?

 

[Joey Bags]

Do you get the feeling this will be an above average year?

Going purely off historical data, yes. Ultimately it will come down to how strong the El Nino pattern ends up.

 

[RU848789]

"El Niño is upon us," Pastelok said. "It came on strong here in late summer, and it will continue to be strong and a dominating factor going into our winter forecast."

According to AccuWeather: El Niño is a large-scale climate phenomenon created when the water temperatures near the equator of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean are above the historical average for months at a time. The change in water temperatures reshapes the jet stream and, ultimately, weather patterns in various parts of the world -- including North America.

Much higher snowfall amounts are predicted this year. These are AccuWeather's predictions:

• Boston: 38-44 inches
• New York City: 18-26 inches
• Philadelphia: 16-24 inches

AccuWeather predicts more snow coming to New Jersey this winter thanks to El Niño

"El Niño ... came on strong [in NJ] in late summer, and it will continue to be strong and a dominating factor going into our winter forecast."

www.app.com

Those predicted amounts are on the low side of normal for all three cities (the 30-year avg for Boston is 49", for NYC is 30" and for Philly is 23"), so if those predictions verify (unlikely, as nobody predicts seasonal snowfall accurately, yet, unlike seasonal tropical predictions), it'll be a bit below normal, not "snow" - but it will still be a helluva lot more than last winter - hard to imagine not beating last winter, which was record or near record low snowfall for so many NE locations.

Also, these predictions by AccuWeather are almost the same as last winter's predictions (40-50" for Boston, 18-23" for NYC and 14-20" for Philly), where most forecasters went for above normal snowfall in the NE (wishcasting, IMO - most years forecasts are weighted above normal). El Nino's are often below normal, but it depends on how strong and it being west or east based and other factors - very weak correlations between ENSO state and snowfall in the NE. Above normal snowfall forecasts generate more clicks, unfortunately.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweather-2022-2023-us-winter-forecast/1252283

 

[T2Kplus20]

Just practicing for Numbers' first winter thread:

or

 

[Knight Shift]

Those predicted amounts are on the low side of normal for all three cities (the 30-year avg for Boston is 49", for NYC is 30" and for Philly is 23"), so if those predictions verify (unlikely, as nobody predicts seasonal snowfall accurately, yet, unlike seasonal tropical predictions), it'll be a bit below normal, not "snow" - but it will still be a helluva lot more than last winter - hard to imagine not beating last winter, which was record or near record low snowfall for so many NE locations.

Also, these predictions by AccuWeather are almost the same as last winter's predictions (40-50" for Boston, 18-23" for NYC and 14-20" for Philly), where most forecasters went for above normal snowfall in the NE (wishcasting, IMO - most years forecasts are weighted above normal). El Nino's are often below normal, but it depends on how strong and it being west or east based and other factors - very weak correlations between ENSO state and snowfall in the NE. Above normal snowfall forecasts generate more clicks, unfortunately.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweather-2022-2023-us-winter-forecast/1252283

Uh oh, I have awakened the sleeping snow giant.

Where is Metuchen in that list?

 

[RU848789]

Uh oh, I have awakened the sleeping snow giant.

Where is Metuchen in that list?

Somehow, we get 143" of snow, annually, on average...

 

[RUInsanity]

Higher food costs have more to do with farmers getting continually screwed over and hyperinflation than climate change.

-Home prices have increased by 30% since 2021
-Rent has increased by 25% since 2021
-Eviction filings are 50% higher since 2021
-5.5M kicked off medicaid -27.6M lack healthcare
-Childhood poverty has jumped from 5.2% to 12.4% since 2021

Since 2021--- wonder what happened since 2021?

There was a CDC driven federal eviction moratorium during the Pandemic that was overturned by the SCOTUS in August 2021....hence significant increases since that time.

During the pandemic congress put in restrictions barring states from kicking people off of medicaid. Enrollment surged over 35% increase to 86 million. Congress added legislation into a spending bill this April to remove that provision and states proceeded to kick people out. Note that Texas and Florida account for about 900Kof people who lost coverage.

Childhood poverty increase is disturbing. Perhaps it represents a conflation of high inflation, pandemic relief running dry and congress expiry of the expanded child tax credits.

Rent increases and real estate increases are typically synonymous. Not sure how anyone nor anything would be to blame for a significant increase but I imagine it is market demand and location driven.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

There was a CDC driven federal eviction moratorium during the Pandemic that was overturned by the SCOTUS in August 2021....hence significant increases since that time.

During the pandemic congress put in restrictions barring states from kicking people off of medicaid. Enrollment surged over 35% increase to 86 million. Congress added legislation into a spending bill this April to remove that provision and states proceeded to kick people out. Note that Texas and Florida account for about 900Kof people who lost coverage.

Childhood poverty increase is disturbing. Perhaps it represents a conflation of high inflation, pandemic relief running dry and congress expiry of the expanded child tax credits.

Rent increases and real estate increases are typically synonymous. Not sure how anyone nor anything would be to blame for a significant increase but I imagine it is market demand and location driven.

Thanks Fauci

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Global warming has already make a negative impact on Americans via higher insurance premiums, higher food costs and greater incidences of destructive storms. But yeah, cheer it on.

 

[RUfinally2008]

Just practicing for Numbers' first winter thread:

or

So how does this work? Numbers handles the summer and KnightShift the winter or someone was just stepping on numbers toes?

 

[RUPete]

So how does this work? Numbers handles the summer and KnightShift the winter or someone was just stepping on numbers toes?

I think Knight Shift jumped the gun on this one. Hurricane Season prediction threads are a toss-up between Ru4Real and Numbers.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

So how does this work? Numbers handles the summer and KnightShift the winter or someone was just stepping on numbers toes?

I subscribe to bac. 😉

 

[RU848789]

I think Knight Shift jumped the gun on this one. Hurricane Season prediction threads are a toss-up between Ru4Real and Numbers.

Nope, I've never done a seasonal winter snowfall prediction thread, since I think they're pointless, as there's about zero skill in them - some find them fun, especially on the weather boards. I do tend to be the one to start winter storm threads, as I started doing them in the early 2000s, but not always.

And historically, I started occasionally posting Dr. Grey's seasonal tropical forecasts in 2013, the year after Sandy, when interest obviously went up around here on tropical systems. While they're interesting to discuss (and have much better accuracy than any seasonal snowfall forecasts), they're of minimal "value" in that they can't tell you where any particular storm will hit, which is what's really important. And RU4Real sometimes starts the seasonal tropical threads more as a prediction contest.

 

[rutgersdave]

Global warming is AWESOME! Another no-snow winter coming to CNJ this year. Bizatch!
:)

September 2023 was the hottest ever by an "extraordinary amount," EU weather service says

"Climate change is here" now, said the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service's director, calling the September temperatures "beyond belief."

www.cbsnews.com

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

September 2023 was the hottest ever by an "extraordinary amount," EU weather service says

"Climate change is here" now, said the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service's director, calling the September temperatures "beyond belief."

www.cbsnews.com

 

[RUBOB72]

Yes at some point we will have snow. How much…Who really cares ? It’s not unusual that in some years this area of the mid Atlantic gets more snow than what is considered normal. We somehow get through it… usually better prepared and it is actually not a bad thing. What becomes annoying is reading about what may happen and then watching as the huge 3’ accumulation melts away or doesn’t materialize as anticipated . Hurricanes, tornadoes, below 20 here temps with ice… yeah that’s bad. Let the snow begin.

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

"Culture Change" is more of a crisis than "Climate Change".

 

[T2Kplus20]

September 2023 was the hottest ever by an "extraordinary amount," EU weather service says

"Climate change is here" now, said the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service's director, calling the September temperatures "beyond belief."

www.cbsnews.com

Stopped reading at "European climate change watchdog".

LOL!

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Stopped reading at "European climate change watchdog".

LOL!

He’s all about gloom & doom

 

[RUBOB72]

Been loving these mild NJ winters!

And any dimwit who hasn’t enjoyed milder winter conditions around here ( northeast NJ-NY) these past several years is just out right lying . Another over hyped agenda. The price increases in the country are not simply climate based unless one doesn’t think reductions to all meat , chicken etc. production doesn’t impact costs. Fossil fuel and natural gas limits, free money to those who don’t deserve it. Screwing farmers for years is an old ploy. Why does it continue ? Because in too many instances people employing these damaging ideas are not directly impacted. All anyone here needs to see is the sudden change in policy as we approach 2024.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Is this now the official winters season weather thread?

I'm waiting on how much snow we can expect for the Ohio State game on Nov. 4th.