Heading into Sunday night and beyond, attention turns to the next
potential coastal storm system as another low develops over the
south and moves northeast off the coast Sunday night into
Monday and Monday night. At this point, there remains a lot of
uncertainty regarding this system`s intensity and track and its
resultant impacts over the area. The latest
GFS has trended
weaker and farther south/east suggesting less impacts over the
area while the
ECMWF has trended farther north but is slower
with timing. The GEM Global remains the middle ground and has
been fairly consistent tracking the storm northeast from
Cape
Hatteras east of the
coastal waters brushing S/E parts of the
forecast area with at least some precipitation. Temps should be
cold enough aloft for snow but surface temperatures will be
marginal once again so precipitation type a challenge as well.
This all said, forecast confidence low with the storm at the
very least too close for comfort. The time frame for concern is
again Sunday night through Monday, possibly into Monday night,
and based on latest trends did expand
likely POPs for rain/snow
from the southern Delmarva NE along the southern NJ coast as
storm should be close enough for at least some precip here.
Important to note, we often see forecast models trend north and
west with a storm a couple days before impact and if this were
to happen in this case, precip would be heavier and expand
farther north/west with accumulating snow possible along the
I-95 corridor. Again, too close to call right now. This will
hinge on how strong the high to our north is and how quickly it
breaks down and this should becoming clearer with subsequent
forecast updates through the weekend.