Well, this could be our last shot at some winter before spring takes hold. The hemispheric pattern is expected to develop high latitude ridging over Greenland (i.e., a "polar block" and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation index), which is highly conducive to cold and possible snow starting early Friday through about the end of next week, at least (beyond that is very far out and hard to predict, although climatology does not favor snow potential past about mid-March, although it's still possible). We're pretty much guaranteed to be mostly below normal in temperatures during this period and we're going to have multiple chances of winter storms, but there's no guarantee of any significant snow. Yet.
The first chance of some wintry precip is very early Friday morning, when it's possible we could get a bit of snow (or rain to snow) - at this point this is looking like a minor event with maybe 1-2" of snow being possible (and little to no snow is also possible). If the snow mostly falls before about 8 am, we could see some accumulations before the sun starts warming things above 32F - precip after that point could be snow or a mix to rain as temps warm above freezing.
A much bigger potential winter storm could hit on Sunday. This is still 5+ days out, so uncertainty is still quite high. There's almost certainly going to be a significant storm - the question, at this point, is whether the storm track brings it close enough to our area for a major snowfall or if it's suppressed far enough off the coast by the polar vortex for a minor snowfall near the coast (it should be cold enough for snow either way). Given that track errors this far out are over 150 miles and a track shift of <100 miles would likely make difference between little to no snow" and 6-10", for example, along the I-95 corridor in central/north Jersey, this storm bears watching.
Right now, the near miss is looking more likely, but the snowier solution cannot be ruled out as the "players" (the systems that will eventually form the storm) are still over the data sparse Pacific Ocean, meaning the model accuracy 5+ days out is low. In addition, the long range models show the cold/wintry pattern continuing through most of next week with 1 or 2 more chances for wintry precip - way too far out to speculate on them, but the key is the pattern here is full of potential, as many top pros have noted. Specifically, here's what Earthlight, one of the best out there, had to say about the pattern:
"We are bordering on KU-level (KU is a Kocin-Uccinelli storm indicative of major to historic snowstorms in the past) hemispheric evolution now on much of the medium range ensemble guidance as we move into the Day 5-10 period. Westward movement of vorticity from Greenland into the Davis Straight and Central Canada with a closed and/or notable polar block circulation have been known to preclude some of the more prolific Northeast US snowstorms on record. In addition, the elongation of the tropospheric polar vortex over Southeast Canada suggests that cold, well sourced high pressure systems will be meandering to our north over Northern New England and Southeastern Canada. An active Pacific pattern ensures multiple disturbances ejecting eastwards into this airmass."
Been talking about this for the last day or so in another thread and was urged to start a new thread, so if this doesn't pan out and produce any snow, y'all know who to blame, lol. And below is this morning's NWS Mt. Holly discussion on both the Friday morning and Sunday systems. It's really well done, highlighting the potential, but high uncertainty. Also included a link to the model discussion thread on AmericanWx.
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...y-rain-s-of-78-some-mix-n-of-78.119226/page-2
A surge of colder air will likely occur late Thursday night into
Friday when winds turn northerly as Arctic high pressure starts
to build in from central Canada. An overrunning setup that
follows could potentially bring wintry precipitation to at least
a portion of the forecast area Thursday night into Friday as a
Pac NW disturbance is steered around the base of the broad
northern-stream trough, eventually making its way into the Mid-
Atlantic region. Forecast thermal profiles support a transition
from rain to snow from north to south with this event but the
devil is in the (timing) details. Forecast confidence for
snowfall accumulations and for pinpointing where a band of
potentially locally higher amounts could set up is limited due
to the complexity of this pattern that requires many ingredients
to come together at the right time to produce snowfall
accumulations. While there are a few outlier models that are indicating 3+
inches of snow, there is much more support for lesser
accumulations. Nonetheless, some impacts to the Friday morning
commute are possible, especially in eastern PA and NJ where an
earlier arrival of the cold air favors snow for the rush.
Arctic high pressure will continue to build southeastward into the
Great Lakes and Northeast region this weekend. Meanwhile, a more
potent Pac NW shortwave trough (relate to the Friday system) is
forecast to track east-southeastward across the Central/Northern
Plains and Midwest on Saturday. Models then continue to hint at some
degree of phasing between this Pac NW system and southern-stream
energy moving into the Southern Plains and northern Gulf Coast
states later in the weekend. The surface low is then forecast to
rapidly deepen as it progresses eastward across the Southeast states
Sunday. There is still a high degree of uncertainty regarding the
track of the low once it reaches the coast. The are two general
track scenarios: 1) the low takes a turn more northward and closer
to the Mid-Atlantic coast or 2) the low doesn`t make the turn
northward and instead moves quickly out to sea. The former would
require stronger phasing to occur farther upstream and increase our
threat at a significant late-season snow storm. Over the past few
runs, model support for the latter (i.e., a more surpressed storm
track) has increased. However, there continues to be a large spread
in guidance and with this event still 5-6 days out, there is still
plenty of opportunity for models to trend back northward over
the next few days. Therefore, only slight adjustments downward
to the PoPs were made for Sunday. It`s still worthy of
highlighting in the HWO with stress about high forecast
uncertainty. At this juncture, it`s best to continue monitoring
the forecast throughout the week. Regardless of the outcome, the
likelihood of well-below normal temperatures for this weekend
is high.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49755-march-model-discussion/?page=14
The first chance of some wintry precip is very early Friday morning, when it's possible we could get a bit of snow (or rain to snow) - at this point this is looking like a minor event with maybe 1-2" of snow being possible (and little to no snow is also possible). If the snow mostly falls before about 8 am, we could see some accumulations before the sun starts warming things above 32F - precip after that point could be snow or a mix to rain as temps warm above freezing.
A much bigger potential winter storm could hit on Sunday. This is still 5+ days out, so uncertainty is still quite high. There's almost certainly going to be a significant storm - the question, at this point, is whether the storm track brings it close enough to our area for a major snowfall or if it's suppressed far enough off the coast by the polar vortex for a minor snowfall near the coast (it should be cold enough for snow either way). Given that track errors this far out are over 150 miles and a track shift of <100 miles would likely make difference between little to no snow" and 6-10", for example, along the I-95 corridor in central/north Jersey, this storm bears watching.
Right now, the near miss is looking more likely, but the snowier solution cannot be ruled out as the "players" (the systems that will eventually form the storm) are still over the data sparse Pacific Ocean, meaning the model accuracy 5+ days out is low. In addition, the long range models show the cold/wintry pattern continuing through most of next week with 1 or 2 more chances for wintry precip - way too far out to speculate on them, but the key is the pattern here is full of potential, as many top pros have noted. Specifically, here's what Earthlight, one of the best out there, had to say about the pattern:
"We are bordering on KU-level (KU is a Kocin-Uccinelli storm indicative of major to historic snowstorms in the past) hemispheric evolution now on much of the medium range ensemble guidance as we move into the Day 5-10 period. Westward movement of vorticity from Greenland into the Davis Straight and Central Canada with a closed and/or notable polar block circulation have been known to preclude some of the more prolific Northeast US snowstorms on record. In addition, the elongation of the tropospheric polar vortex over Southeast Canada suggests that cold, well sourced high pressure systems will be meandering to our north over Northern New England and Southeastern Canada. An active Pacific pattern ensures multiple disturbances ejecting eastwards into this airmass."
Been talking about this for the last day or so in another thread and was urged to start a new thread, so if this doesn't pan out and produce any snow, y'all know who to blame, lol. And below is this morning's NWS Mt. Holly discussion on both the Friday morning and Sunday systems. It's really well done, highlighting the potential, but high uncertainty. Also included a link to the model discussion thread on AmericanWx.
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...y-rain-s-of-78-some-mix-n-of-78.119226/page-2
A surge of colder air will likely occur late Thursday night into
Friday when winds turn northerly as Arctic high pressure starts
to build in from central Canada. An overrunning setup that
follows could potentially bring wintry precipitation to at least
a portion of the forecast area Thursday night into Friday as a
Pac NW disturbance is steered around the base of the broad
northern-stream trough, eventually making its way into the Mid-
Atlantic region. Forecast thermal profiles support a transition
from rain to snow from north to south with this event but the
devil is in the (timing) details. Forecast confidence for
snowfall accumulations and for pinpointing where a band of
potentially locally higher amounts could set up is limited due
to the complexity of this pattern that requires many ingredients
to come together at the right time to produce snowfall
accumulations. While there are a few outlier models that are indicating 3+
inches of snow, there is much more support for lesser
accumulations. Nonetheless, some impacts to the Friday morning
commute are possible, especially in eastern PA and NJ where an
earlier arrival of the cold air favors snow for the rush.
Arctic high pressure will continue to build southeastward into the
Great Lakes and Northeast region this weekend. Meanwhile, a more
potent Pac NW shortwave trough (relate to the Friday system) is
forecast to track east-southeastward across the Central/Northern
Plains and Midwest on Saturday. Models then continue to hint at some
degree of phasing between this Pac NW system and southern-stream
energy moving into the Southern Plains and northern Gulf Coast
states later in the weekend. The surface low is then forecast to
rapidly deepen as it progresses eastward across the Southeast states
Sunday. There is still a high degree of uncertainty regarding the
track of the low once it reaches the coast. The are two general
track scenarios: 1) the low takes a turn more northward and closer
to the Mid-Atlantic coast or 2) the low doesn`t make the turn
northward and instead moves quickly out to sea. The former would
require stronger phasing to occur farther upstream and increase our
threat at a significant late-season snow storm. Over the past few
runs, model support for the latter (i.e., a more surpressed storm
track) has increased. However, there continues to be a large spread
in guidance and with this event still 5-6 days out, there is still
plenty of opportunity for models to trend back northward over
the next few days. Therefore, only slight adjustments downward
to the PoPs were made for Sunday. It`s still worthy of
highlighting in the HWO with stress about high forecast
uncertainty. At this juncture, it`s best to continue monitoring
the forecast throughout the week. Regardless of the outcome, the
likelihood of well-below normal temperatures for this weekend
is high.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49755-march-model-discussion/?page=14
