You mean the cbi might throw them a bine
1/31: Just a taste of 2023 NCAA BACATOLOGY
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
You mean the cbi might throw them a bine
Recap
A day after a big overperformance for the bubble there were only 2 wins vs. an expected 4.38: USC and Arizona State, plus Wisconsin in a game someone had to win. Neither win is a resume booster but always good to avoid losses. USC entered the day on the 11 line and ASU was the second team out. I don't think yesterday really changes that.
Charleston lost a second game in a row and is almost definitely in need of the autobid to make the tournament. Utah took a bad home loss. They were already close to life support -- listed on just one bracket out of 90 -- so this just about does it for them. They won't feature again in my rundown until February 16 when they face Arizona, and that's assuming they win at home over Cal and Colorado. Oregon was listed on three brackets and missed a shot at a huge win. More on them in the Friday/Saturday rundown.
In the Big Ten Ohio State is way off the bubble at 11-11. Wisconsin's road win over them still counts as a Q1, so the Badgers (who were the first team out) keep pace with the Pittsburghs and Nevadas who also got Q1 wins this week. Michigan has a ton of work to do at 12-10 but they're in the picture. They actually picked up two Q1 wins yesterday, beating Northwestern on the road and having Maryland at home move to Q1. And lastly FAU took a Q1 loss but are still safely in.
Friday/Saturday Bubble Guide
(Friday 9:00 pm) Boise State (39%) at San Diego State - The Broncos are currently listed on the 9 line at Bracket Matrix and a Q1 loss at San Diego State doesn't really alter that. They're 19 in the NET and I don't think they're going to have any issues making it in, but they have a Q4 loss and are a hair away from a Q3 loss: they lost to #99 Charlotte on a neutral, if that slips to 101 then it's Q3. It's low stakes for now but it should be a good game so I'm including it.
(Friday 11:00 pm) Air Force at Nevada (86%) - The Wolfpack just won against San Diego State and are likely in if they take care of business down the stretch. They're playing the landmine game, trying to avoid bad losses instead of notching big wins. They have eight games left and six of them are against non-tournament teams. If they sweep the six I think it probably doesn't matter if they lose at New Mexico and at Utah State.
(12:00 pm) Virginia at Virginia Tech (46%) - Virginia Tech needs this game to get into the First Four Out/Next Four Out picture. They're just 2-5 in Q1 and this is their last Q1 home game of the year so they need it. If they lose then we forget about them unless they win the next four in a row.
(1:00 pm) Georgia Tech at NC State (92%) - Q4 game for NC State. Not gonna waste time thinking about it unless the major upset happens.
(2:00 pm) TCU at Oklahoma State (54%) - The Cowboys are picking up momentum with four wins in their past five games and now they get a prime home spot against a TCU team that's still banged up and might be without Mike Miles and Eddie Lampkin for another game.
(2:00 pm) Tulane at Memphis (78%) - Memphis has won five straight but being in the AAC means that none of those wins were that impactful. This one isn't either since Tulane is only Q3 but the Wave knocked off the Tigers in New Orleans.
(2:30 pm) Illinois at Iowa (58%) - Iowa is very close to being above the danger zone but I'll throw them in there. These are the two hottest teams in the Big Ten (other than Purdue) so I'm expecting a good game. Iowa has to go on the road to West Lafayette next so if they drop this one they might be 14-10 heading into next weekend would put them in the 10 seed range.
(3:00 pm) Miami at Clemson (50%) - The Tigers have taken care of business at home so far with wins over Penn State, Wake Forest, NC State, and Duke. If they win this then they don't have much to worry about, but if they lose this they're looking a three game losing streak because their next one is at North Carolina.
(3:30 pm) Arkansas (90%) at South Carolina - Q4 game for Arkansas. Not gonna waste time thinking about it unless the major upset happens.
(4:00 pm) Florida Atlantic (61%) at Charlotte - This is a tight turnaround for the Owls after losing at UAB yesterday. Even with another Q2 road loss I think they'd be okay but a loss here brings them to "better not take another one in the regular season" status.
(6:00 pm) Missouri at Mississippi State (62%) - The Bulldogs are listed on only one bracket but they're just four behind Missouri in the NET. Their big issue is a 3-8 Q1/Q2 record, and this game will be Q2 for them. They've played a really hard SEC schedule so far (four of their nine games were against Alabama and Tennessee) so I don't think they should be written off just yet. Missouri is on the 8 line but a road loss here doesn't sting too badly.
(6:30 pm) North Carolina (36%) at Duke - bac talked about UNC more extensively if you scroll up. They're on the 7 line at Bracket Matrix but a lot of the fresher ones that include their home loss to Pitt have them in the 8-10 range, so I'll throw them on here. Obviously a road loss to Duke doesn't torpedo them but it makes their next game, a road tilt at Wake Forest, more interesting.
(8:00 pm) Oklahoma at West Virginia (71%) - Not quite a double bubble special. Both of these teams are on the 11 line right now but Oklahoma's most recent loss hasn't been fully accounted for. I think other bubble teams would rather see both of these teams at 13-10 than WVU at 14-9 and OU at 12-11 so I'm giving the percentage to West Virginia for the calculation. You can just about stick a fork in the Sooners if they lose because their remaining schedule is tough even by Big 12 standards.
(7:30 pm) Villanova at Creighton (83%) - The Blue Jays have righted the ship and if they win this game then I won't be featuring them anymore. But if they lose it then they'll be 14-9 and their next three are at Seton Hall who desperately needs another big win, home for UConn, and then at Providence.
(8:00 pm) Utah State (65%) at Colorado State - The Aggies are hovering around the Next Four Out, still with the anchor of two Q4 losses. They need to stack wins to offset that, while this is only a Q3 game and not a resume enhancer, they need to win it.
(8:30 pm) Florida at Kentucky - Double bubble special. Not assigning a percentage because other bubble teams don't really benefit either way. Kentucky is in the field but close to the cut line. Florida is well off the bracket right now but this would give them a third Q1 win and at least pull them closer.
(8:30 pm) Georgia at Texas A&M (81%) - The Aggies are right near the cut line but out at the moment. Bracket Matrix has them as the third out, Lunardi has them first out. This is the one they can't overlook before a Tuesday home game against Auburn which is where they can score a win that will actually move them up.
(9:00 pm) Maryland (80%) at Minnesota - I think Minnesota is going to get one more win this year. Do not be the team that gives it to them. Ask Ohio State how that's working out.
(9:30 pm) Washington at USC (82%) - The Trojans are the third Pac-12 team in and they've been taking care of their business lately with a road win at ASU and then beating UCLA and Washington State at home. Their next one after this is at a potentially desperate Oregon team. So don't take a Q3 loss here.
(10:00 pm) Oregon at Arizona State - Double bubble special. No percentage, although a win by Arizona State puts Oregon on life support (they'd be 13-11) while a win by the Ducks means that both teams would be in that First/Next Four Out range.
Summary
2 games with bubble implications tonight: 1.25 expected wins
18 games with bubble implications tomorrow. Two of them are zero-sum matchups where other bubble teams don't really have a rooting interest. In the remaining 16 games: 10.89 wins. Most of the bubble teams are favored so it's all about holding your ground. Clemson, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Florida, Kentucky, Oregon, and Arizona State the are the ones in position to get a big win that would really help, but everyone else is mostly playing defense against a bad loss.
Just to recap my last 8 in and first 8 out heading into the weekend....extremely fluid at this point.
LAST 8 IN
FIRST 8 OUT
Upon further reflection into Memphis resume. I just do no think they have the profile for a bid at the moment. That can change but basically they have a win over Auburn. The win over Texas A&M is solid enough and havent lost to anyone outside of Q2. To me just enough beef to assume a bid like many early bracketologists have assumed. I realize that is going against common wisdom that that ACC will get more than one bid BUT the schools above them all have better wins. Remember the AAC conference rank is down to 10 this season. Two games vs Houston so there is an opportunity to get that win that puts them in excellent shape. Otherwise its about stacking wins vs medicore AAC competition and watching the power conference schools oscillate around them.
LAST 8 IN
- PITTSBURGH
- NORTHWESTERN
- WISCONSIN
- OKLAHOMA STATE
- ARKANSAS
- USC
- KENTUCKY
- NEVADA
FIRST 8 OUT
- OKLAHOMA
- MEMPHIS
- PENN STATE
- TEXAS A&M
- FLORIDA
- MISSISSIPPI STATE
- VIRGINIA TECH
- SETON HALL
Upon further reflection into Memphis resume. I just do no think they have the profile for a bid at the moment. That can change but basically they have a win over Auburn. The win over Texas A&M is solid enough and havent lost to anyone outside of Q2. To me just enough beef to assume a bid like many early bracketologists have assumed. I realize that is going against common wisdom that that ACC will get more than one bid BUT the schools above them all have better wins. Remember the AAC conference rank is down to 10 this season. Two games vs Houston so there is an opportunity to get that win that puts them in excellent shape. Otherwise its about stacking wins vs medicore AAC competition and watching the power conference schools oscillate around them.
Yeah San Dieogo State really needed this one because their resume was suprisingly weak in the win department..stabilized a bit a back in the drivers seat. Boise St needs to avoid landmines and pick up a quality win or 2.
@ BAC - I hear you on Memphis but 17-5 is a really gaudy record to have in combination at this point with that neutral win over Auburn.
While Memphis lacks signature wins, does a team like Oklahoma State at 13-9 really have that much better of a body of work? I know they play a tougher schedule, but it’s not like all 9 of those losses are so much better than Memphis’. Both lost in OT to UCF (Okie St lost on a neutral floor while Memphis lost a road game). Memphis lost @ Tulane but Okie State lost a home game to Southern Illinois.
When you compare wins, a neutral win vs Auburn is at least as good as a home win vs. Iowa St. So the question becomes - how much more impressed would the committee be by a sweep of Oklahoma and a home win over WVU compared to wins @ Cincy, Texas A&M, and VCU. Better yes - but 17-5 vs 13-9 better?
Also - when you go further down the resume - Memphis also has much better middle of the road wins (@ Temple, @ Vandy, Nebraska (neutral), Stanford (neutral), than Oklahoma State (Sam Houston and DePaul (neutral). (Both beat Ole Miss so that cancels).
While Memphis lacks signature wins, does a team like Oklahoma State at 13-9 really have that much better of a body of work? I know they play a tougher schedule, but it’s not like all 9 of those losses are so much better than Memphis’. Both lost in OT to UCF (Okie St lost on a neutral floor while Memphis lost a road game). Memphis lost @ Tulane but Okie State lost a home game to Southern Illinois.
When you compare wins, a neutral win vs Auburn is at least as good as a home win vs. Iowa St. So the question becomes - how much more impressed would the committee be by a sweep of Oklahoma and a home win over WVU compared to wins @ Cincy, Texas A&M, and VCU. Better yes - but 17-5 vs 13-9 better?
Also - when you go further down the resume - Memphis also has much better middle of the road wins (@ Temple, @ Vandy, Nebraska (neutral), Stanford (neutral), than Oklahoma State (Sam Houston and DePaul (neutral). (Both beat Ole Miss so that cancels).
Who you beat matters
Middle of the road wins are irrelevant
Oklahoma state has better wins
Iowa St win is way more valued than Auburn
Neutral win over 7-8ish seed isn’t that different from home win vs 4-5ish seed. A little better maybe.
Regardless, Memphis also isn’t getting the same chances at home to pick up those signature wins. They haven’t lost a home game yet. When they went to Alabama they lost by 3. They haven’t lost to anyone by more than 7. Seems like a good enough mid-major profile right now for field inclusion barring they don’t pick up a landmine loss .
The middle of the road stuff may come into play when you try to compare 5 loss mid major teams to major conference bloat. It’s not your typical 5 loss Murray State profile is the point. They’ve played plenty of real games along the path to 17-5.
Mississippi State up on Missouri. We're kinda seeing the 8/9 through Next Four Out lines starting to flatten (Clemson and Memphis and Missouri down, Oklahoma State up, Virginia Tech up, Mississippi State up)
lol I live bet Creighton -2.5 when they were up 2 and about to shoot a 1-and-1. They missed and Nova immediately drained a 3 to go up 1.
Anyway my bet still won after all that. Villanova stinks.
Creighton is officially above the bubble. I think they'd have to lose all of their next three (@SHU, vs. UConn, @ Providence) to return to my watchlist.
Utah State wins at Colorado State. Maryland blowing out Minnesota on the road. Texas A&M easily handling Georgia. For the most part everyone is taking care of business today which makes it a bad day for Memphis who is basically the one team that didn't. Clemson was at least facing a tournament team in Miami.
Utah State wins at Colorado State. Maryland blowing out Minnesota on the road. Texas A&M easily handling Georgia. For the most part everyone is taking care of business today which makes it a bad day for Memphis who is basically the one team that didn't. Clemson was at least facing a tournament team in Miami.
Dayton is about to lose to St. Bonaventure so they'll drop out of the top 75 and cost VCU their only Q1 win. VCU could go 16-2 in the A-10 and still need to win the autobid to make it.
St Mary's came back to beat Gonzaga in OT. That freshman Mahanay for St Mary's is fun to watch.
13 wins vs. 10.89 expected. Almost everyone held serve.
Oregon defeated Arizona State and I'd say the Ducks are closer than the Sun Devils at this point but both teams are still out of the field.
Today we've got Ohio State vs Michigan, the loser of that is done.
Northwestern at Wisconsin, both teams are right near the cut line. Both of these games are zero sum for bubble purposes.
Seton Hall (vs DePaul) and Penn State (at Nebraska) are supposed to win so they need those to keep up.
Oregon defeated Arizona State and I'd say the Ducks are closer than the Sun Devils at this point but both teams are still out of the field.
Today we've got Ohio State vs Michigan, the loser of that is done.
Northwestern at Wisconsin, both teams are right near the cut line. Both of these games are zero sum for bubble purposes.
Seton Hall (vs DePaul) and Penn State (at Nebraska) are supposed to win so they need those to keep up.
Bubble analysis is of much less interest this year. I love that. Great to be a good to very good team and not simmering in the bubble.
Personal dislike/preference aside, are we rooting for Ohio state I guess?
If Michigan wins will keep them as a Q2 game for us. They were 74 in the NET this morning, 75 is the cutoff.
On other hand, from a B1G standings perspective I guess we want Michigan to lose.
Fordham gonna lose to Richmond. Don’t think Fordham was in the bubble convo anyway but 100% donezo now
Right now, OSU is 13/36 (.361) inside the arc. Ouch. They're shooting better outside the arc than inside it.
They looked awful early. Then DePaul started doing DePaul things
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