No...its not here yet. As you guys know I am just not a fan of early season bracketology. Even in late January its just too early for me. Last year I didnt do this preview thread until 2/7 so even I am falling victim to the disease. I think bracketologists fall in love with certain schools and narratives and with half the conference season left for most. Things can change on a dime. Resumes even of the top 25 schools are woefully incomplete. There are just too many games to play. Seeding is almost pointless at this juncture especially in light of the circumstances in the Big 12 where you have 6 school jockeying for position somewhere between possible one seeds and down to 4. Just going to try and give a rough outline here with respect to the contender for top seeds and my initial analysis will just focus on the contenders reminding everyone there are plenty of games to go which means there are tons of opportunities for some of the schools closer to the last in line to gather and collect quality wins while teams further up may stumble and not add much to their resume. Just a snapshot in time of what things look like today.
68 schools selected, 32 AQs (automatic qualifiers from conferences), 36 at larges
Here are the current AQs at this time...meaning if the field was selected today these teams would represent their conference since they are in first place. Its not a projection. Some do that or use highest NET. This is just who is in first today.
- BIG 12: TEXAS
- BIG 10: PURDUE
- SEC: ALABAMA
- BIG EAST: XAVIER
- MWC: SAN DIEGO STATE
- PAC 12: UCLA
- ACC: CLEMSON
- WCC: SAINT MARY'S
- AAC: HOUSTON
- CUSA: FLORIDA ATLANTIC
- WAC: UTAH VALLEY
- A10: SAINT LOUIS
- IVY: PRINCETON
- SUN BELT: LOUISIANA
- MVC: SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
- BIG WEST: CAL-SANTA BARBARA
- MAC: KENT STATE
- A SUN: LIBERTY
- BIG SKY: EASTERN WASHINGTON
- SOUTHERN: FURMAN
- HORIZON: MILWAUKEE
- MAAC: IONA
- SUMMIT: ORAL ROBERTS
- CAA: CHARLESTON
- BIG SOUTH: UNC-ASHEVILLE
- A EAST: VERMONT
- PATRIOT: COLGATE
- MEAC: MARYLAND-EASTERN SHORE
- O VALLEY: TENNESSEE-MARTIN
- SOUTHLAND: SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
- SWAC: SOUTHERN
- NEC: WAGNER
So this year is not a particularly good year for low and mid majors to grab at large bids. Let us look at a few first before getting into the at large schools
FLORIDA ATLANTIC really has the best shot of any of any low major. Currently 19-1 with a stunning NET of 19. CUSA is not a bad conference this season rated 10th so the Owls could sustain as many another regular season losses and still be a viable candidate for an at large with a conference tourney loss. I think probably anything more than 4 losses total and it becomes very tenuous for them. 2-0 in Q1 and 4-1 Q1/2 yet there are no wins over schools projected to make the field. Best win is Florida who is a longshot bubble school. Only loss is Ole Miss a mediocre SEC school. A whopping 15 of 19 wins are from Q3/4 and the overall sos of 243 is poor but even worse the non conference sos of 306. Easily by far mid major darling and helped by the scarcity of competition among those schools
SAINT LOUIS has wins over Providence and Memphis so there is a start. The A10 somehow always finds a way to sneak in more than one. The conference is though down to 12th overall. They will rue the Q4 loss to SIUE at home..wow. Need to avoid tripping up and absorbing a bad loss but its likely their at large chances come down to how they do in 4 game vs their biggest A10 challengers Dayton and VCU...take 3 of them and things start to look promising.
CHARLESTON suffered just its 2nd loss (Hofstra) of the season now 20-2 but its overall NET at 62 a concern. There are wins over distant bubble Va Tech and MAC AQ Kent State and their only other loss was at North Carolina. Hurt by the CAA really freefalling as a conference rated 24. 0-1 vs Q1, 3-0 in Q2 but the other win was just UNC Wilmington. The last 8 are all in Q3 and 4 so they simply have to keep winning. Perhaps can sustain a loss in regular season but would be in better shape to just win out where a tournament loss could be forgiven. Even though the top 25 ranking put them on the radar screen, it will not be a factor in the selection room.
KENT STATE is 15-4 with a NET of 59 but the lack of any Q1 or Q2 wins doom them. They did schedule strong ooc as that number is 66 but lost to Houston, Gonzaga, and Charleston. Their best win was at 145 Ohio. Only a road trip to Akron would qualify current as Q2. I suppose if they can win out and then lose in MAC finals they could be something like 27-5 but this conference no longer has much cache as its ranked 17th this season so this is going to be a tough thread the needle for them. They will be ruing a Q4 loss to Northern Illinois
ORAL ROBERTS have soared to 42 in the NET. Unbeaten in the Summit and now 16-4 overall they have an interesting profile because their non conference sos is 4th in the country. Those 4 losses all in Q1 at Houston, Saint Mary's, New Mexico and Utah State. The latter one is probably one they could have needed. There is a Q2 win over ASun AQ Liberty and that is their best win but there are no losses outside of Q4. Yet 13 of their 16 wins are in Quad 4. They have 7 games left and all are potential landmines. If they can sweep those they could put themselves in serious contention though given the bloat from the major conferences and that OOC SOS will be valued by the committee
LIBERTY is up to 45 but again lacking any big wins. 0-3 in Q1 and just 1-1 in Q2 with that win being Bradley. OOC SOS of 68 with 4 of its losses to NCAA projected schools...Alabama, Northwestern, Oral Roberts, and Southern Mississippi. The Q3 loss to Eastern Kentucky looms large. Just one Q1 opportunity left at Kennesaw State so a whole bunch of landmines. Would likely have to win out heading into the Atlantic Sun tourney
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI has wins over Liberty and Vandy but unless they run the table in their remaining regular season Sun Belt games its going to be hard to make a case. SOS numbers of 222/208 is going to be a factor here and that is reflected in the NET of just 67 currently.
SAINT MARY'S net rating of 6 seems out of wack given their only quality wins are San Diego State and Oral Roberts. Plus they have 2 Q3 losses to the mediocre Pac 12 Washington schools. 1-2 vs Q1, yes they are 6-0 in Q2 but those are not schools in the running for a NCAA bid so its a bit deceiving. Obviously they are not really in danger of missing out given how great the NET is and they have done very well in the WCC thus far. Still I put them here because I do not have them as top 4 seed yet so no lock and their NET will not match their seed, especially so if they do not win the WCC. Two games with Gonzaga and potential landmines on the road.
CLEMSON is leading the ACC even though eventually that may go to Virginia. Very likely dancing but not a lock yet despite the gaudy 18-4/10-1. I have seen schools with similar starts drop like a rock...see Wake Forest last season. The NET at 60 raises those red flags should they start to accumulate losses in the mediocre ACC,. Have 3 Q1 games and a Q2 upcoming with a bunch of rancid schools in the remaining games that could damage the profile. The Q1/2 marks at 3-2/7-2 looks good...wins over Duke, Pitt, NC State and bubble Wake/Va Tech. Its the Q4 losses to South Carolina and Loyola that are killing the NET and they will only come into play if Clemson stumbles down the stretch.
In addition I see these schools as locks right now....meaning it would take an act of god to miss the tourney.
TENNESSEE, ARIZONA, KANSAS, VIRGINIA, KANSAS STATE, GONZAGA, IOWA STATE, TCU, MARQUETTE, BAYLOR
When trying to get into who are the 1 seeds..
PURDUE is clearly at the top. Then you have
ALABAMA/TENNESSEE, HOUSTON, UCLA/ARIZONA, KANSAS/TEXAS also vying for those one seeds. Even
VIRGINIA could have an outside shot if they can run the table in the ACC. The Big 12 has some others lurking but profile wise seem to be a step behind.
I know they NCAA will put out their top 16 seeds out in about two weeks.
I know I said I would not do it but here is mine currently
1: PURDUE, ALABAMA, HOUSTON, TEXAS
2: TENNESSEE, KANSAS, ARIZONA, UCLA
3: KANSAS STATE, GONZAGA, VIRGINA, IOWA STATE
4: MARQUETTE, BAYLOR, TCU, XAVIER
So I have accounted for 10 of the 36 at larges which puts us at 42 schools in and 26 at large spots remaining up for grabs. I would gander there are probably about 46 competing for these 26 spots. Far too many to go through individually at this juncture.
I list them in some catagories....
LOOKING LIKELY
- DUKE
- INDIANA
- ILLINOIS
- CONNECTICUT
- RUTGERS
- MIAMI
- PROVIDENCE
Nothing is definite but this group of 7 are a cut below the projected at larges in but also a cut above the schools below them. A case of taking care of business. All of these 6 have built up strong profiles with quality wins and avoiding bad losses. Things can only get hairy if they start to accumulate warts which would throw them further to the cut line
We will turn our attention specifically to
RUTGERS because that is who you are all here for.
(22) RUTGERS 14-7: The only school to have beaten Purdue, it is the best win in the country this year. RU is 4-4 in Q1 and 7-6 in Q1/2. 5 wins vs schools I currently project to make the field....Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern, Maryland, Penn State. Best OOC win is just Wake who is still on the bubble currently. OOC schedule is extremely weak as usual checking in at 309 but it probably will not come to that. The loss to Temple is still Q3 but the Owls recent run is easing the blow of that loss. Plus remember RU did have two players out with injuries for that game and also one out for the loss to Miami. The Knights bugaboo of winning on the road has been solved in the first half of the season with the win at Purdue and NCAA projected Northwestern. Add in the stolen game at Ohio State which still counts as a loss and the Knights have to feel good about winning a game or two on the road in its second half of the Big 10 season. And Rutgers will have to. A great start but now its time to finish. Must avoid landmine bad losses to the likes of Minnesota and Nebraska and take care of a school like Michigan at home. Hesitate to put magic numbers this far out and with 12 Big 10 schools competing for NCAA berths. Yet probably 5 more which would include at least another Q1 win would do it for the Scarlet Knights. Winning just 4 and being 18-13 does put them in a somewhat vulnerable spot I will be honest here even with that big win over Purdue. Get to 6 or more and the Knights are considered just about top half seeding. Do they have any shot at a top 4 seed? That one is a longshot. I think at this juncture they are significantly behind those schools as the BE will likely have two slotted above them and then you have all those Big 12 schools. Squeezing in is unlikely unless RU can gather up wins on the road at Indiana and Illinois and maybe finish 21-10/13-7. First order of business is next 4 games....they need to win 2 of these next 4 or they drop out of this list and onto the next tier.
SAFE FOR NOW
- NORTH CAROLINA
- MICHIGAN STATE
- MISSOURI
- AUBURN
- CREIGHTON
- NORTH CAROLINA STATE
- NORTHWESTERN
- IOWA
- NEW MEXICO
- BOISE STATE
- MEMPHIS
Exactly what it means...safe for now. These schools all have some nice things going for them. They are not true bubble teams at the moment so they land here. However it will not take much to land them close to the bubble with so many games to play.
BUBBLICIOUS...the last 8 spots
- USC
- WEST VIRGINIA
- MARYLAND
- PITTSBURGH
- KENTUCKY
- WISCONSIN
- PENN STATE
- ARKANSAS
I know many bracketologists fell in love with
ARKANSAS in early bracketology but the reality is they do not have the resumes one would think their record and top 25 ranking for all but the last few weeks would allude to.
ARKANSAS has a net of 28 yet their numbers in Q1/2 are trash. Q1: 1-5, Q2: 2-1...3-6 combine raises eyebrows. Just 2 wins over schools projected in the field...San Diego State and Missouri. A bad loss to LSU and a conference mark of 3-5 which could indicate what is to come. Road trip to 4 of the top schools in league are going to be an issue. This is a school in trouble and I see many early bracketologists are scrambling with them now.
I know
WISCONSIN is reeling having dropped 6 of their last 7 and the NET is held back at 74 because of the inefficiency. The most Rutgers profile of 2023 yet without the bad losses. The worst loss by the Badgers was to Wake Forest who is a bubble team. Wisconsin has FIVE wins vs projected tourney teams....at Marquette, at Iowa, USC, Maryland, Penn State. Yes 3 of them are in this final 8 list but point remains. They are 2-6 in Q1 and 6-8 overall in Q1/2. That works for now. Their SOS numbers work...overall 10, non conference 65. The key for them is to just stop the bleeding. I know some may feel that a 9-11 conference mark will not get a team from the Big 10 to the tourney but because of those wins over Marquette and USC, there is a path for the Badgers. Go 5-5 the rest of the slate. Their schedule in the last half is certainly doable. Do not write their obituary yet.
KENTUCKY needs to do more. They have a great win at Tennessee that counts as more than one win but its their only Q1 win as they are 1-6. Their 3-0 Q2 mark does not even have a win over a school projected in the field even showing wins over bubbles Michigan and Texas A&M. That is just one win vs tourney teams and there is a horrific Q4 home loss to South Carolina. Its not the most difficult SEC schedule to come and they get Tennessee at home....alot more landmines than quality win opportunities.
People are sleeping a bit on
PENN STATE. The wins at Illinois and home to Indiana/Iowa are good starters. There are no bad losses but losses to distant bubbles Va Tech and Michigan could prove critical. 2-4 in Q1 and 4-7 Q1/2. No bad losses yet a whopping 10 of 14 wins come from Q3/4. There is ample opportunity in the 2nd half of the Big 10 slate to pick up Q1/2 wins vs the likes of Illinois, Rutgers, Northwestern, and Maryland and they have some landmine road games vs Minny/Nebby they need to take care of.
WRONG SIDE OF BUBBLE
- OKLAHOMA
- WAKE FOREST
- TEXAS A&M
- NEVADA
- OREGON
- OHIO STATE
- ARIZONA STATE
- MISSISSIPPI STATE
- OKLAHOMA STATE
- VIRGINIA TECH
- SETON HALL
- MICHIGAN
- UTAH
- VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH
- FLORIDA
- UNLV
- UTAH STATE
- TEXAS TECH
- SAINT JOHN'S
- TEMPLE
OKLAHOMA saved their season with a win over Alabama and in such rousing fashion but they will need take that level of play to Big 12 conference play where they sit at just 2-6 and show just wins over WVU and Texas Tech. OOC the wins vs Florida/SHU are just okay at this point. They will regret losing to Nova. Still almost every night in the Big 12 provides a Q1. 10 games left and the Sooners are going to have to say at least 3 games above 500 because schools just do not get bids 2 games above 500 and the Sooner know that well. That means 5-5 at least down the stretch. Can they pull it off.
Most bracketologists are not even considering
WAKE FOREST due to their awful overall net of 72 but the resume is pretty good. Wins over Duke, at Wisconsin, and the only conference loss for Clemson. Another win over distant bubble Va Tech but a Q3 loss to LSU. Unfortunately for Wake they went 0-3 thus far in their gauntlet where they had an opportunity to shore up the resume. Big game tonight on the road at Duke which would land them in most peoples fields. Absent of that still games vs UNC and on the road at NCState/Miami. Its up to them
TEXAS A&M is this years most outrageous bubble school. Here is a school 7-1 and first place in the SEC at 15-6 and 43 in the NET. They have a road win at Auburn and a win over Missouri but that is it. Two wins over tourney teams. They lost their 2 quality ooc games to Boise and Memphis. They were clobbered by almost 30 by less than mediocre Colorado. There is a Q3 loss to Murray State and a stunning Q4 home loss to Wofford. Red flags everywhere yet they stand on top of the SEC. Well their last 10 they certainly will get a chance to prove themselves either way. 2 games with Arkansas, a trip to Missouri and 3 home games vs Auburn, Bama, and Tennessee. Will likely need 3 of these.
If
NEVADA wants to be the 4th school from the Mountain West they will have to pick up a couple more quality wins in league. The home wins over Boise and New Mexico are decent enough but they arent enough. I know 6-6 in Q1/2 looks better more on paper than reality. There are not any bad losses but the loss to Loyola Marymount does hurt them somewhat. A lot of landmines yet only two road quad 1 opportunities left and they do get a crack at San Diego State tonight
Look I am going to put
TEMPLE here for shits and giggles but considering them for an at large at this point is sheer insanity. Their NET is a non starter at 115 and even if they finished strong its likely not to break into the 80. Two super Q1 wins at Houston and neutral site over Rutgers. The UCF win does as count on the road as a Q1 albeit not resume worthy. Here is the issue...3 losses in Q2...0-3....Ole Miss, St Johns, Memphis..only the latter can be excused. But wait let us delve into Q3 and 4. Temple is a ghastly 11-6...FOUR Q3 losses: Vandy, Tulane, Richmond, Penn. Yeah perhaps not the worse losses in the world but their dreams end because they have 2 Q4 losses.....Maryland Eastern Shore and Wagner. Sorry no go. Lets see them go 8-0 which means beating Houston again and winning at Memphis. If they can get to 22-9/16-2 in league we will once again revisit but this is a case of when pigs fly.
So there it is...just a taste of bracketology in a more informal way and it actually ran a bit longer than I thought. For next week, I am still debating on a possible full bracketology with seeding and in depth analysis of every school or giving things another week to boil. Thoughts and comments and corrections appreciated as always.
