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1/31: Just a taste of 2023 NCAA BACATOLOGY

Need to beat one of Creighton/Xavier at home I think and don't lose any dumb ones. Losing at UConn or at Providence is fine.
I think they need to win two of the Creighton Xavier uconn providence games. Beat DePaul and gtown and split with nova and they probably get there. That would give the big east six in assuming the four mentioned plus Marquette are safely in.
 
I think they need to win two of the Creighton Xavier uconn providence games. Beat DePaul and gtown and split with nova and they probably get there. That would give the big east six in assuming the four mentioned plus Marquette are safely in.
SHU turns it over a ton and struggles with shooting but Sha has them playing extremely hard and he’s shortened their bench
 
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Lets consider some bubble schools who played last night

FLORIDA scored a much needed feather in their cap with by knocking off #2 Tennessee. Gators shot up 9 spots to 41 in the NET. Just 13-9, even with this one they are still lacking beef on the resume. Yes a win over bubble Mississippi State counts as a Q1 win but that does not move any needles. A Q2 win over Missouri is all else they have. They got swept by bubble Texas A&M, a loss to Oklahoma, Their best OOC win was Kennesaw State. 2-7 vs Q1, 1-2 in Q2, that means 10 of their 13 wins are from Q3/4. Thats going to have to improve. The positives are there are no bad losses so its a clean resume and the sos numbers of 20/41 are very fine. Next 2 are road games at Kentucky and at Alabama. Gators need to win one of these because there is only another game with Kentucky and a game at Arky that are quality win opportunities. I assume they will be showing up in some brackets today but not mine because not enough here yet.

SETON HALL another 13-9 mark but their NET sags at 52. Still I think people are sleeping on this profile. The SOS numbers are very very strong at 11/32. Committee likes that. Q1 3-5, Q2 2-3. They have a win over UConn but the win at Rutgers may actually be their biggest of the season. The neutral site win over Memphis is a big help. Loss to Siena is Q3 and while they would like to have that back, it can be forgiven. Beat SJU in a game they had to have. Pirates need to take care of business in the games where they are favored and then pick off 2 others. 4 quality win opportunities to come....Creighton, at Connecticut, Xavier, at Providence. Could see them 18-12 heading into the BE tourney playing for their lives

UTAH STATE moved to 17-5 with a win at New Mexico. Admittedly I am not a fan of the Aggies resume and I just do not think the Mountain West will get 5. The Aggies have the flimsiest resume of the group albeit strong overall NET. Yes winning at New Mexico is a quality win but what else do they have. Just a win over Oral Roberts which is good. The issue I have are 2 Q4 losses to SMU and at home to Weber State. Non conference sos is 214 so that will not help them there. 2 home games vs San Diego St/Boise St and a trip to Nevada so they will need to win 2 of those. For me they are clearly out currently but have opportunity to make their case

PITTSBURGH picked up a big road victory at UNC. Panthers are getting it done. Their profile is getting better day by day and that is where you want to be trending in February. Now 16-7 and yes the NET lags at 59, Pitt is up to 4-2 in Q1 and 4-4 in Q2...the 8-6 mark in Q1/2 is outstanding. Wins over Virginia, NC State, North Carolina, Northwestern (the latter 3 on the road), Miami, another win over North Carolina. That is 6 wins over NCAA projected schools. I realize there is a Q4 loss to Florida State and a 31 point loss to Michigan and the latter probably cost them about 10 NET points. To me they have moved above the last 4 in line for now and its all about navigating landmines the rest of the season. Just 2 Q1 opportunities on the road at Virginia Tech and Miami but the other 6 are drek from the ACC in Q3/4

NORTH CAROLINA at 43 NET and 15-7 has almost the same profile as they did last year at this time. No real quality wins but yes totally clean with no bad losses. 1-6 in Q1, a better 5-1 Q2 yet their only real quality wins are NC State and Charleston. The Ohio State, Michigan and Wake wins are fading fast. Last year the Heels knocked off Duke and took off. This year a win over Duke will not carry the same cache but the Heels are insane gauntlet where their back half of their schedule was loaded. 8 of the 10 games will be against NCAA contenders. 5 Q1 games and 3 Q2 games. So UNC lost their first one a Q2 to Pitt. Plenty of opportunities so I think its going to be clear cut, either play their way safely in or out.
 
Holtmann or St. John’s coach first to be fired?

I think Holtmann is a decent/good coach. and one bad year when center is hurt or less than 100% doesn’t deserve firing although his clothing choices are odd.
 
I’d argue a sweep unless we win one of the games against the remaining top teams
SHU reminds me of us a few years ago. Wouldn’t want to play them but not sure they will get enough wins.
 
this would be a big win for Michigan to at least put them in play. Northwestern still on the good side of the bubble but their schedule is sick coming up.
 
Michigan is more likely to make the tournament than Northwestern imo. Way more talented.
 
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Charleston goes down at Drexel. They're not even the CAA autobid spot now. Hofstra is tied with them and won H2H.

CAA will be a one bid league.

 
Utah down 10 at home to Stanford in the second half. Would be a Q3 loss.
 
4 team PAC 12 opens up 5 team MWC? They say geography doesn’t matter but….
 
BYU beating LMU. Hurts LMU or keeps alive BYU? Or both. As much as NCAA denies, think they do want some geographical balance. Wants some tv ratings west of Kansas.
 
Down goes Utah. Their resume is in rough shape. 2-4 Q1, 2-4 Q2, and now a Q3 loss.
 
They may throw San Fran a bone as they have been decent last few years.
There's no lifetime achievement awards here. San Francisco would need to win out (including at SMC and Gonzaga) just to get on the bubble.
 
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