10th Place in B1G on the line

[ScarletDave]

Despite the disappointment of the last 2, right in front of us is 10th place and a huge seeding difference in the Big Ten. We are the 11 seed as it stands today (even with the disaster, we are 11th out of 18 teams - so how pathetic must half the Big Ten be since everyone here wants the whole team gone and coaching staff gone) … with 1 game left, we can get the 10 seed with just 2 thing: RU beats Minny, and Nebraska beats Iowa. Nothing else matters as in this case no matter what, we would have the tie breakers over Neb, NW, Minnesota, and USC, who are all the ones in striking distance (besides Iowa). So go huskers, and beat Minny at the RAC, and somehow we’ll salvage a top-10 in this 18 team league despite the huge disappointment.

 

[bac2therac]

you mean 11th place...there are 10 teams ahead of RU that they cannot pass...Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, Maryland, UCLA, Illinois, Oregon, Indiana, Ohio State

 

[Smols]

Despite the disappointment of the last 2, right in front of us is 10th place and a huge seeding difference in the Big Ten. We are the 11 seed as it stands today (even with the disaster, we are 11th out of 18 teams - so how pathetic must half the Big Ten be since everyone here wants the whole team gone and coaching staff gone) … with 1 game left, we can get the 10 seed with just 2 thing: RU beats Minny, and Nebraska beats Iowa. Nothing else matters as in this case no matter what, we would have the tie breakers over Neb, NW, Minnesota, and USC, who are all the ones in striking distance (besides Iowa). So go huskers, and beat Minny at the RAC, and somehow we’ll salvage a top-10 in this 18 team league despite the huge disappointment.

Are you sure about this? Using Mreds calculator, that scenario has us at 11th.

 

[Simce91]

Is this scenario the eliminates RU from the B1G tournament ?


RU losing to Minn
and
Iowa beating MSU, losing to Nebraska
and
N'western beating Maryland
and
USC beating Wash & UCLA

 

[RUtrumpet92]

We cannot be higher than 11th.

These are UNWEIGHTED probabilities in chart #2. The winner of our game on Sunday is very likely to be the 11 seed unless Iowa sweeps their last two or Northwestern upsets Maryland.

 

[King of S]

you mean 11th place...there are 10 teams ahead of RU that they cannot pass...Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, Maryland, UCLA, Illinois, Oregon, Indiana, Ohio State

Exactly

 

[Pdabs]

so 95% chance we make the B10 tourney.
5%% we don’t.

5% it is then.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

It’s looking like it’s saying our odds are at 5% and Minny is at 0% of missing. But that can’t be right, can it?

 

[RutgersRaRa]

The crazy thing is that we were predicted to finish 10th in the conference before the season started.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Does it really matter where we would be slotted anyway 11-15? Honestly - I don’t see much difference who we would play in that first round grouping?

 

[bac2therac]

all 5 teams suck right now....arguably Nebraska has played at a higher level this season and still has a shot at a NCAA bid yet what good does that do them, they arent even a Big 10 tourney lock and all of them have one good game and then will stink up the joint the next night.

 

[RUtrumpet92]

so 95% chance we make the B10 tourney.
5%% we don’t.

5% it is then.

Less than 5% IMO. That percentage is based on every game being a complete 50/50 toss-up. There are 8192 possible combinations of outcomes of the final 13 games. In 384 of those outcomes, we don't make the tournament. However... some of the games that need to go against us are things like Iowa beating Michigan State, and I think their chances are less than 50%.

I think our seed matters if you want us to win twice (or more???) in the tournament. Avoiding Purdue would seem to be a big help there. If we can get to 11, the charts show the likely round 2 opponent would be (UCLA, Illinois, Wisconsin) with a slim chance of it being Oregon or Maryland.

Then we'd play Purdue in round 3 and we've seen that movie twice this season.

 

[goru7]

Less than 5% IMO. That percentage is based on every game being a complete 50/50 toss-up. There are 8192 possible combinations of outcomes of the final 13 games. In 384 of those outcomes, we don't make the tournament. However... some of the games that need to go against us are things like Iowa beating Michigan State, and I think their chances are less than 50%.

I think our seed matters if you want us to win twice (or more???) in the tournament. Avoiding Purdue would seem to be a big help there. If we can get to 11, the charts show the likely round 2 opponent would be (UCLA, Illinois, Wisconsin) with a slim chance of it being Oregon or Maryland.

Then we'd play Purdue in round 3 and we've seen that movie twice this season.

I would play Purdue in a heartbeat. Just try a different strategy. Smith and Kaufman Renn are good but that is it . The rest of the team is a bunch of unathletic by BIG standards and role players. Let Kaufman Renn get his 20-25 and harass Smith all day and have someone , yeah anyone guard Loyer.

 

[fatsam98]

Honestly I don't wanna take part in this thing anymore

 

[bac2therac]

Honestly I don't wanna take part in this thing anymore

View embedded media

and RU never truly had their moment.....29 years without a NCAA birth and we never got that moment on tv in 2020 as we were going to be Americas team that year or at the rac with the tv cameras...the following year there were no fans....the next year it was a first four game...sigh

2020 was my favorite season...eclipsing any of the other 2 ncaa years

 

[Caliknight]

I would play Purdue in a heartbeat. Just try a different strategy. Smith and Kaufman Renn are good but that is it . The rest of the team is a bunch of unathletic by BIG standards and role players. Let Kaufman Renn get his 20-25 and harass Smith all day and have someone , yeah anyone guard Loyer.

I have a novel idea if we play Purdue again. Try playing defense. I'm not sure but I've seen other teams attempt this and it seems to help.

 

[TommyGunn]

Despite the disappointment of the last 2, right in front of us is 10th place and a huge seeding difference in the Big Ten. We are the 11 seed as it stands today (even with the disaster, we are 11th out of 18 teams - so how pathetic must half the Big Ten be since everyone here wants the whole team gone and coaching staff gone) … with 1 game left, we can get the 10 seed with just 2 thing: RU beats Minny, and Nebraska beats Iowa. Nothing else matters as in this case no matter what, we would have the tie breakers over Neb, NW, Minnesota, and USC, who are all the ones in striking distance (besides Iowa). So go huskers, and beat Minny at the RAC, and somehow we’ll salvage a top-10 in this 18 team league despite the huge disappointment.

Respect brother. You are a glass half full guy for sure even though our glass has shattered and we cut an artery from the shards. You should run for senate or something.

 

[RUskoolie]

Who really cares, the season is going to be done in 10 days. We will most likely lose within the first 2 games. No chance we do better than 1-1. No leadership or guts. Team has sucked all year they are not going to magically go in a 5 game run.

 

[ru66]

Who really cares, the season is going to be done in 10 days. We will most likely lose within the first 2 games. No chance we do better than 1-1. No leadership or guts. Team has sucked all year they are not going to magically go in a 5 game run.

Most teams seasons will end in a couple of weeks even those that get into the tourney

 

[darkcheck]

and RU never truly had their moment.....29 years without a NCAA birth and we never got that moment on tv in 2020 as we were going to be Americas team that year or at the rac with the tv cameras...the following year there were no fans....the next year it was a first four game...sigh

2020 was my favorite season...eclipsing any of the other 2 ncaa years

Five years ago this week, when Young dunked over Haarms. That was the absolute pinnacle.

 

[darkcheck]

Most teams seasons will end in a couple of weeks even those that get into the tourney

Huge difference

 

[JavaDunk18]

2020 also had an Eastern Regional scheduled at the Garden...
so could have even been a final 4 run..
was the toughest team we had too. No loss by more than 12 points

 

[newell138]

The crazy thing is that we were predicted to finish 10th in the conference before the season started.

And wasn’t everyone outraged lol

 

[Joey Bags]

Lmao @ seeding. We’re gonna get nuked in the first game

 

[RutgersRaRa]

I would play Purdue in a heartbeat. Just try a different strategy. Smith and Kaufman Renn are good but that is it . The rest of the team is a bunch of unathletic by BIG standards and role players. Let Kaufman Renn get his 20-25 and harass Smith all day and have someone , yeah anyone guard Loyer.

"Just try a different strategy" assumes we have the means to try a different (i.e. effective) strategy. We don't. Role players are vital to winning teams because they get to the spots where the star players can find them, and teams like Purdue are always loaded with players who fit into their coach's system. Everyone on their team passes the ball well. We don't have good passers and lack court vision, don't have consistent shooters, and perhaps most importantly, don't have a legit 5 who can keep teams from getting to the rim. Purdue is a terrible matchup for us.

 

[RutgersRaRa]

And wasn’t everyone outraged lol

A lot of folks were, but I was more worried than indignant. I've learned over the years that the oddsmakers have a lot of data at their disposal and don't have a prejudice against or for particular teams. My thinking was, why are their expectations so low for us? Might have to do with the number of freshmen, no big man, and also stats on coaches who suddenly find themselves with incredible talent at a level they've never had before. Not sure what went into it or what goes into it, but the data input into these predictions is extensive. I wanted to prove the oddsmakers wrong, but by the 10th game of the season I saw it begin to unfold.

 

[rubigtimenow]

I think our seed matters if you want us to win twice (or more???) in the tournament. Avoiding Purdue would seem to be a big help there. If we can get to 11, the charts show the likely round 2 opponent would be (UCLA, Illinois, Wisconsin) with a slim chance of it being Oregon or Maryland.

I gave it a little look last night and I concluded it was most likely to be…
Minnesota
UCLA
Michigan
Which has to be the best 3 game stretch possible for this team, given the other options in both the 2nd and 3rd game.

 

[NickRU714]

And wasn’t everyone outraged lol

Beyond outraged.
It's becoming an annual tradition the last 3 years

Preseason we get ranked low, everyone talks about how uninformed and lazy the media is, we finish even worse.


Year - Preseason Media Poll - Final Standing

2024-2025
Media 10
Season TBD

2023 - 2024
Media 10
Season 13

2022 - 2023
Media 8
Season t-9 (2 teams tied)

2021 - 2022
Media 8
Season t-4 (2 teams tied)

2020 - 2021
Media 5
Season t-6 (2 teams tied)

2019 - 2020
Media 12
Season t-5 (4 teams tied)

2018 - 2019
Media 14
Season 10 (3 teams tied)

 

[Local Shill]

The OP knows he's wrong but refused to fix the title of the thred.

 

[ScarletDave]

The OP knows he's wrong but refused to fix the title of the thred.

Sorry wrote this before the standings updated from the late night ending of OSU beating Nebraska. That game started at 9 and went to 2 OTs, so the Big Ten’s website wasnt updated. With OSU at 9 wins now, yes we can only finish 11th not 10th anymore. Still below expectations by a lot for a lot of people, but in the grand scheme of the conference not horrible

 

[goru7]

"Just try a different strategy" assumes we have the means to try a different (i.e. effective) strategy. We don't. Role players are vital to winning teams because they get to the spots where the star players can find them, and teams like Purdue are always loaded with players who fit into their coach's system. Everyone on their team passes the ball well. We don't have good passers and lack court vision, don't have consistent shooters, and perhaps most importantly, don't have a legit 5 who can keep teams from getting to the rim. Purdue is a terrible matchup for us.

They are only a terrible matchup when we decide to not guard anyone and not come within 10 feet of the shooter

 

[fluoxetine]

A lot of folks were, but I was more worried than indignant. I've learned over the years that the oddsmakers have a lot of data at their disposal and don't have a prejudice against or for particular teams. My thinking was, why are their expectations so low for us? Might have to do with the number of freshmen, no big man, and also stats on coaches who suddenly find themselves with incredible talent at a level they've never had before. Not sure what went into it or what goes into it, but the data input into these predictions is extensive. I wanted to prove the oddsmakers wrong, but by the 10th game of the season I saw it begin to unfold.

We aren’t talking about oddsmakers, we are talking about a preseason coaches poll and those things are wrong all the time lol.

 

[fluoxetine]

Beyond outraged.
It's becoming an annual tradition the last 3 years

Preseason we get ranked low, everyone talks about how uninformed and lazy the media is, we finish even worse.


Year - Preseason Media Poll - Final Standing

2024-2025
Media 10
Season TBD

2023 - 2024
Media 10
Season 13

2022 - 2023
Media 8
Season t-9 (2 teams tied)

2021 - 2022
Media 8
Season t-4 (2 teams tied)

2020 - 2021
Media 5
Season t-6 (2 teams tied)

2019 - 2020
Media 12
Season t-5 (4 teams tied)

2018 - 2019
Media 14
Season 10 (3 teams tied)

Seems like we’ve generally performed better than the poll based on your own post?

 

[bac2therac]

Seems like we’ve generally performed better than the poll based on your own post?

Ap top 25

 

[NickRU714]

Seems like we’ve generally performed better than the poll based on your own post?

Oh I clearly pointed out the last 3 years slide.
Since our great 19-20 season it's been 4 out of 5 years underperforming (although finishing 6th and predicted 5th isn't really underpeforming).

Probably better to go by tiers than specific rank.