Let me call it a BAC SMORGASBOARD this week. Grab a plate and fill up but hold off for seconds until next week's full nitty gritty 7 courses of BACATOLOGY. Still a lot of games to be played.
68 schools selected, 32 AQs (automatic qualifiers from conferences), 36 at larges
Here are the current AQs at this time...meaning if the field was selected today these teams would represent their conference since they are in first place. Its not a projection. Some do that or use highest NET. This is just who is in first today.
So this year is not a particularly good year for low and mid majors to grab at large bids. Let us look at a few first before getting into the at large schools
FLORIDA ATLANTIC suffered their only their second loss of the season but it was still a Quad 1 loss at UAB. Overall NET actually rose this week to 18. Owls are in great shape for a bid. Q1 at 2-1, Q2: 3-1 are great for a low major albeit the only win vs ncaa contender is Florida. CUSA is the 8th rated conference so that will help. Its about navigating landmines. Probably could sustain one more loss and still be in okay shape with a loss in CUSA tourney.
VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH now moves up to the AQ spot in A10 but their chances as an at large are not the best. A10 way down this year and is ranked 11th. Conference has a whole is lacking many quality wins. Wins over conference opponents do not really move the needle that much. Rams do have a win over Pitt which is looking better and better but lost to bubbles ASU and Memphis. Plus losses to Temple and Duquense. Plus that Q4 home loss to Jacksonville is hideous. 15 of their 18 wins are Q3/4, that is more like a MAAC conference profile.
ORAL ROBERTS continues their ascent up the net rankings now landing at 38. The Golden Eagles are unbeaten in Summit league play and if they can avoid a loss in those last 6 games, they legit will stamp themselves as a last team in/first team out contender. What works against them is that 16 of their 17 wins are to Q4. The win in Q2 over Liberty though is very good. 0-4 vs Q1 but they are all NCAA teams...St Marys, Houston, New Mexico and bubble Utah State. In a light bubble season they could be a viable option over a bloated 19-14 toad from the Big 10.
CLEMSON is still hanging in as ACC leader but its clear their stock is dropping. While they would fit in for now somewhere near the 8/9 line, the Tigers have a weird 2022 Rutgers type resume. The NET overall lags at 64. There are two Q4 losses here to Loyola Chicago and South Carolina plus a Q3 to Boston College. These are huge negatives and the atrocious non conference sos of 339 may come into play at some point. Yet there are very good wins here too. 3-2 vs Q1, 7-3 vs Q1/2. 3 wins over tourney teams...Duke, at Pitt, NC State, plus 2 win over bubble Va Tech and a split with Wake. Tigers have only 3Q1 opportunities left and they are all on the road...at UNC/NCSt/Virginia. It would do them well to win one of these but they also MUST avoid a loss to one of the dregs like Cuse/ND/UL/FSU. Their resume cannot sustain another major blemish.
SAINT MARY'S knocked off Gonzaga to give them a much needed quality win. The NET soars at 6 despite San Diego State and Oral Roberts being the only wins of note. There are two Q3 losses here to Washington and Colorado State. The Gaels finish with 4 of 6 on the road including the finale at Gonzaga but it would take an act of god probably for them to miss the tourney at this point.
In addition I see these schools as mortal locks right now.....
TENNESSEE, ARIZONA, KANSAS, VIRGINIA, KANSAS STATE, GONZAGA, IOWA STATE, TCU, MARQUETTE, BAYLOR
When trying to get into who are the 1 seeds.. PURDUE, ALABAMA/TENNESSEE, HOUSTON, UCLA/ARIZONA, KANSAS/TEXAS also vying for those one seeds. The latter two clash tonight which would flip flop their current spots. Hard to see anyone else being able to break in and contend for a one seed. With the recent VIRGINIA loss over the weekend and their lack of flesh on their resume, they have no hope and I do not think either XAVIER/MARQUETTE can jump up.
1: PURDUE, ALABAMA, HOUSTON, KANSAS
2: ARIZONA, TEXAS, UCLA, TENNESSEE
3: IOWA STATE, BAYLOR, KANSAS STATE, GONZAGA
4: VIRGINIA, XAVIER, TCU, MARQUETTE
Slotting SAINT MARY'S on the 5 line for now plus I have accounted for 10 of the 36 at larges which puts us at 42 schools in and 26 at large spots remaining up for grabs. I would gander there are probably about 43 schools competing for these 26 spots. Still a week away from diving deep into their individual capsules
There are some definite categories to break the at large contenders into
LOOKING LIKELY: All have gained significant wins in Q1 that currently elevate them into this status. Yet they are clearly a notch behind the top 4 seed line. Stopping short of putting these schools as lock but they would need act of god finishes where they tank the seasons that put them near the cut line.
Everyone is here for RUTGERS
(19) RUTGERS 16-7: While the Saturday win over Michigan State was just a Q2 score, it marked the 5th win for RU vs teams in the field (5-4). Its an important number to note as the Ohio State and Penn State wins have now lost a bit of luster. A fine 4-4 vs Q1 and a more than fine 8-6 vs Q1/2, Rutgers clicks all the boxes right now. Remember than win at Purdue is the best win in college basketball this season and the Boilermakers are still a one seed despite losing to Indiana. The Knights road win at Northwestern also makes two for them which solves their bugaboo from other seasons. The losses to Seton Hall and Temple are not looking bad at all anymore. The one wart on the resume is the 302 non conference rank which in the long run may keep them from being a top 4 seed. RU has a tough road if they want to break into the top 4. First of all two brutal road games at Indiana/Illinois await. The Knights will have to split to stay in the running for that 4 seed line Currently projected on the 5/6 seed line, two losses probably knocks them to a 7 but the schedule becomes more favorable down the stretch where they can maintain their placement in the upper half of the bracket. Any worries about falling into the bubble discussion? Not really, they would have to annex a third straight loss losing to Nebraska to get to where we would even consider those thoughts. This is a NCAA team although we are stopping just short of locking them in.
SAFE FOR NOW: It is exactly what it means. These appear like NCAA tourney schools. A step above the bubble but that could change with 8 games left to play for most.
BUBBLICIOUS LAST 12 IN: Lots of games to play and all these schools are vulnerable. Need significant additions to their profiles and just as important to avoid damaging bad losses.
FIRST FOUR GAMES: ARKANSAS-BOISE STATE, NEVADA-WISCONSIN
Some specifics here....You know I hate early bracketology and my focus is going to turn to BOISE STATE. The Broncos have been solidly in everyone's brackets for weeks. They have been up at or near the top of the Mountain West standings. Their NET, currently at 27, has been in the top 30 much of the year. Here is where early brackets get you into trouble and its not just Boise, its the entire Mountain West. There is a bit of separation with San Diego State vs the other 4 MWC bubbles The reality is the 4 other schools are all bubble schools right now...Utah State the most in trouble really lacking much. For Boise at 17-6, they have just one win vs the field...Nevada, there are two other wins vs bubble Texas A&M and Utah State. They are lacking that quality road win in league. They have 3 quality win opportunities later in the season vs New Mexico/SD St and at Utah State. Likely need 2 of these plus avoiding the landmines elsewhere. Until they do that they will hover near the last 4 in/first 4 outline...that goes for NEW MEXICO AND NEVADA as well. NEW MEXICO has some nifty road wins at San Diego State and St Marys plus wins over Boise and Oral Roberts. So they probably have a tad more breathing space than Boise at the moment. NEVADA has 4 quality home wins vs the other top 4 in MWC so their profile is rising. There is another nice win over MAC AQ Akron. Their knock is they do not have a road win of note. Two opportunities upcoming at New Mexico and Utah State but those are the only Q1 opportunities left on the schedule
ARKANSAS simply needs some quality wins. The NET is very solid at 29 but the Razorbacks are just 1-5 in Q1 games..a neutral site win over San Diego State. They have failed to pick up SEC wins of note besides the win over Missouri. Just 1-5 on the road including losses to drek like Vandy and LSU this is a major red flag to take care of and actually avoided disaster in a narrow first road win at Q4 South Carolina on Saturday. A trip to Kentucky is next and looming toward the end of the season is a road trip at Alabama and Tennessee. Seen schools like this from the SEC play their way right out.
WISCONSIN is hanging on despite struggling mightily in Big 10 play now losing 7 of their last 9. That NET of 77 would scare most away. Still the Badgers can thank their non conference performance for keeping them in the running. A win at Marquette and nifty one over USC on a neutral court are solid starters. In Big 10 play there is the win at Iowa and home to Maryland so thats 4 wins vs tourney teams. SOS is a sparkling 8 and there are no losses outside Q2. 4-6 Q1, 7-9 Q1/2 are not bad numbers at all. The problem is can the Badgers hold the line here or will their losses start to overwhelm their willing profile.
NORTH CAROLINA finds themselves in a similar situation to last year. However last year they turned things around by winning at a top 5 Duke. Saturday they lost at a Duke team who isnt even top 25 in the country. The Tar Heels are an abysmal 1-7 in Q1 games and that one win is basically worthless given that Ohio State has gone into the crapper. 5 -1 in Q2 yet the only win vs a team in the field is over North Carolina State. The profile is clean with no bad losses and the sos stuff at 28/16 are big plusses. Their gauntlet is coming up in the last 8 with 6 Q1/2 games with 4 of them at home so a plethora of opportunities to play their way safely in the field....or not.
WRONG SIDE OF BUBBLE
Not a fan of MEMPHIS and even less so after they lost a Q3 game at home to Tulane which means they were swept by the GreenWave this year. The Tigers are basically riding a neutral site with over Auburn. There is a win over fellow bubble Texas A&M but note the loss to surging bubble Seton Hall. 6-5 in Q1/2 looks okay but those wins vs Cincy, Vandy, Nebby, and Temple do not move needles. AAC is down this year to the 11th rated conference and cannot assume this league is going to get 2 bids no matter the fact that Houston might wind up a one seed. The two games against Houston loom large but they cannot afford any more slip ups vs the mediocrity from the AAC.
SETON HALL legitimately is in play for an at large bid after winning 7 of 8. Those wins over UConn and at Rutgers...whoa! The win over Memphis is a nice one to stuff in their pocket. The Siena loss is one they want to have back because its their only loss preventing a clean profile. The SOS of 21/47 are solid here. It comes down to them winning down the stretch. The Big East is a bit down from past season so it is cutting down on quality win opportunities. Home tilts with Creighton and Xavier and road tilts with UConn and Providence. Pirates probably need to win 3 of these 4 unless they can sweep Nova. I think 5-2 is their goal to shoot for in the final 7.
MISSISSIPPI STATE is being slept on by many and its probably because of that woeful 3-7 conference mark. The Q1 mark of 2-5 and Q2 of 5-8 are sort of meh but there are quality non conference wins here over Marquette and TCU and MAC AQ Akron. In league the best is just Missouri and there is a loss to bubble Florida. Losses to Drake and Georgia are Q2 but those are not the kind of losses you want. 0-4 vs Bama/Tennessee and there are limited opportunities in the remaining slate, at Ark and Missouri and home to Kentucky. Need to grab 2 of these and avoid absorbing a loss to SEC bottom feeders.
VIRGINIA TECH has some very good wins over Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, and Oklahoma State plus another decent win over Penn State but the 0-7 mark on the road is a non starter. Impossible to overcome that and features losses to the likes of Syracuse and BC. Non conference sos of 258 is not helping either. Have a fairly favorable schedule with 3 road trips to ACC sisters of the poor but they will need to annex those home opportunities vs Miami and Pitt.
MICHIGAN looks to be coming on just as they did last year but that loss total is a bit bulky. 5-3 down the stretch puts them at 18-13 which should add to their Q1/2 win total. Notch 14 losses before Big10 tourney time and they become a longshot. A sweep of Northwestern, win over Maryland and at Pitt are good starters but need to do more. The dreadful Q4 loss to Central Michigan looms quite large. After Nebraska, their last 7 games are all quality win chances although closing with 3 of 4 on the road is brutal.
Life support on the way for WAKE FOREST, UTAH, SAINT LOUIS
OKLAHOMA has reached a bridge too far for now as their record has hit 12-11/2-8 in the Big 12. The unexpected huge win at Alabama was followed up by losing winnable games at home to Ok State and a 32 point beatdown at West Virginia which represented a soft part in the Sooners schedule.
So there it is... hope you filled up. Thoughts and comments and questions about individual schools are welcome....and don't forget to spot any needed corrections.
68 schools selected, 32 AQs (automatic qualifiers from conferences), 36 at larges
Here are the current AQs at this time...meaning if the field was selected today these teams would represent their conference since they are in first place. Its not a projection. Some do that or use highest NET. This is just who is in first today.
- BIG 12: TEXAS
- BIG 10: PURDUE
- SEC: ALABAMA
- BIG EAST: XAVIER
- MWC: SAN DIEGO STATE
- PAC 12: UCLA
- ACC: CLEMSON
- WCC: SAINT MARY'S
- AAC: HOUSTON
- CUSA: FLORIDA ATLANTIC
- WAC: UTAH VALLEY
- A10: VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH
- IVY: PRINCETON
- SUN BELT: LOUISIANA
- MVC: SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
- BIG WEST: CAL-SANTA BARBARA
- MAC: AKRON
- A SUN: LIBERTY
- BIG SKY: EASTERN WASHINGTON
- SOUTHERN: FURMAN
- HORIZON: YOUNGSTOWN STATE
- MAAC: RIDER
- SUMMIT: ORAL ROBERTS
- CAA: HOFSTRA
- BIG SOUTH: UNC-ASHEVILLE
- A EAST: VERMONT
- PATRIOT: COLGATE
- MEAC: MARYLAND-EASTERN SHORE
- O VALLEY: MOREHEAD STATE
- SOUTHLAND: TEXAS A&M CORPUS CHRISTI
- SWAC: SOUTHERN
- NEC: FDU
So this year is not a particularly good year for low and mid majors to grab at large bids. Let us look at a few first before getting into the at large schools
FLORIDA ATLANTIC suffered their only their second loss of the season but it was still a Quad 1 loss at UAB. Overall NET actually rose this week to 18. Owls are in great shape for a bid. Q1 at 2-1, Q2: 3-1 are great for a low major albeit the only win vs ncaa contender is Florida. CUSA is the 8th rated conference so that will help. Its about navigating landmines. Probably could sustain one more loss and still be in okay shape with a loss in CUSA tourney.
VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH now moves up to the AQ spot in A10 but their chances as an at large are not the best. A10 way down this year and is ranked 11th. Conference has a whole is lacking many quality wins. Wins over conference opponents do not really move the needle that much. Rams do have a win over Pitt which is looking better and better but lost to bubbles ASU and Memphis. Plus losses to Temple and Duquense. Plus that Q4 home loss to Jacksonville is hideous. 15 of their 18 wins are Q3/4, that is more like a MAAC conference profile.
ORAL ROBERTS continues their ascent up the net rankings now landing at 38. The Golden Eagles are unbeaten in Summit league play and if they can avoid a loss in those last 6 games, they legit will stamp themselves as a last team in/first team out contender. What works against them is that 16 of their 17 wins are to Q4. The win in Q2 over Liberty though is very good. 0-4 vs Q1 but they are all NCAA teams...St Marys, Houston, New Mexico and bubble Utah State. In a light bubble season they could be a viable option over a bloated 19-14 toad from the Big 10.
CLEMSON is still hanging in as ACC leader but its clear their stock is dropping. While they would fit in for now somewhere near the 8/9 line, the Tigers have a weird 2022 Rutgers type resume. The NET overall lags at 64. There are two Q4 losses here to Loyola Chicago and South Carolina plus a Q3 to Boston College. These are huge negatives and the atrocious non conference sos of 339 may come into play at some point. Yet there are very good wins here too. 3-2 vs Q1, 7-3 vs Q1/2. 3 wins over tourney teams...Duke, at Pitt, NC State, plus 2 win over bubble Va Tech and a split with Wake. Tigers have only 3Q1 opportunities left and they are all on the road...at UNC/NCSt/Virginia. It would do them well to win one of these but they also MUST avoid a loss to one of the dregs like Cuse/ND/UL/FSU. Their resume cannot sustain another major blemish.
SAINT MARY'S knocked off Gonzaga to give them a much needed quality win. The NET soars at 6 despite San Diego State and Oral Roberts being the only wins of note. There are two Q3 losses here to Washington and Colorado State. The Gaels finish with 4 of 6 on the road including the finale at Gonzaga but it would take an act of god probably for them to miss the tourney at this point.
In addition I see these schools as mortal locks right now.....
TENNESSEE, ARIZONA, KANSAS, VIRGINIA, KANSAS STATE, GONZAGA, IOWA STATE, TCU, MARQUETTE, BAYLOR
When trying to get into who are the 1 seeds.. PURDUE, ALABAMA/TENNESSEE, HOUSTON, UCLA/ARIZONA, KANSAS/TEXAS also vying for those one seeds. The latter two clash tonight which would flip flop their current spots. Hard to see anyone else being able to break in and contend for a one seed. With the recent VIRGINIA loss over the weekend and their lack of flesh on their resume, they have no hope and I do not think either XAVIER/MARQUETTE can jump up.
1: PURDUE, ALABAMA, HOUSTON, KANSAS
2: ARIZONA, TEXAS, UCLA, TENNESSEE
3: IOWA STATE, BAYLOR, KANSAS STATE, GONZAGA
4: VIRGINIA, XAVIER, TCU, MARQUETTE
Slotting SAINT MARY'S on the 5 line for now plus I have accounted for 10 of the 36 at larges which puts us at 42 schools in and 26 at large spots remaining up for grabs. I would gander there are probably about 43 schools competing for these 26 spots. Still a week away from diving deep into their individual capsules
There are some definite categories to break the at large contenders into
LOOKING LIKELY: All have gained significant wins in Q1 that currently elevate them into this status. Yet they are clearly a notch behind the top 4 seed line. Stopping short of putting these schools as lock but they would need act of god finishes where they tank the seasons that put them near the cut line.
- DUKE
- RUTGERS
- INDIANA
- CONNECTICUT
- ILLINOIS
- MIAMI
- IOWA
Everyone is here for RUTGERS
(19) RUTGERS 16-7: While the Saturday win over Michigan State was just a Q2 score, it marked the 5th win for RU vs teams in the field (5-4). Its an important number to note as the Ohio State and Penn State wins have now lost a bit of luster. A fine 4-4 vs Q1 and a more than fine 8-6 vs Q1/2, Rutgers clicks all the boxes right now. Remember than win at Purdue is the best win in college basketball this season and the Boilermakers are still a one seed despite losing to Indiana. The Knights road win at Northwestern also makes two for them which solves their bugaboo from other seasons. The losses to Seton Hall and Temple are not looking bad at all anymore. The one wart on the resume is the 302 non conference rank which in the long run may keep them from being a top 4 seed. RU has a tough road if they want to break into the top 4. First of all two brutal road games at Indiana/Illinois await. The Knights will have to split to stay in the running for that 4 seed line Currently projected on the 5/6 seed line, two losses probably knocks them to a 7 but the schedule becomes more favorable down the stretch where they can maintain their placement in the upper half of the bracket. Any worries about falling into the bubble discussion? Not really, they would have to annex a third straight loss losing to Nebraska to get to where we would even consider those thoughts. This is a NCAA team although we are stopping just short of locking them in.
SAFE FOR NOW: It is exactly what it means. These appear like NCAA tourney schools. A step above the bubble but that could change with 8 games left to play for most.
- PROVIDENCE
- MISSOURI
- NORTH CAROLINA STATE
- MICHIGAN STATE
- CREIGHTON
- AUBURN
- MARYLAND
BUBBLICIOUS LAST 12 IN: Lots of games to play and all these schools are vulnerable. Need significant additions to their profiles and just as important to avoid damaging bad losses.
- WEST VIRGINIA
- PITTSBURGH
- KENTUCKY
- NORTHWESTERN
- USC
- NORTH CAROLINA
- NEW MEXICO
- OKLAHOMA STATE
- ARKANSAS
- NEVADA
- WISCONSIN
- BOISE STATE
FIRST FOUR GAMES: ARKANSAS-BOISE STATE, NEVADA-WISCONSIN
Some specifics here....You know I hate early bracketology and my focus is going to turn to BOISE STATE. The Broncos have been solidly in everyone's brackets for weeks. They have been up at or near the top of the Mountain West standings. Their NET, currently at 27, has been in the top 30 much of the year. Here is where early brackets get you into trouble and its not just Boise, its the entire Mountain West. There is a bit of separation with San Diego State vs the other 4 MWC bubbles The reality is the 4 other schools are all bubble schools right now...Utah State the most in trouble really lacking much. For Boise at 17-6, they have just one win vs the field...Nevada, there are two other wins vs bubble Texas A&M and Utah State. They are lacking that quality road win in league. They have 3 quality win opportunities later in the season vs New Mexico/SD St and at Utah State. Likely need 2 of these plus avoiding the landmines elsewhere. Until they do that they will hover near the last 4 in/first 4 outline...that goes for NEW MEXICO AND NEVADA as well. NEW MEXICO has some nifty road wins at San Diego State and St Marys plus wins over Boise and Oral Roberts. So they probably have a tad more breathing space than Boise at the moment. NEVADA has 4 quality home wins vs the other top 4 in MWC so their profile is rising. There is another nice win over MAC AQ Akron. Their knock is they do not have a road win of note. Two opportunities upcoming at New Mexico and Utah State but those are the only Q1 opportunities left on the schedule
ARKANSAS simply needs some quality wins. The NET is very solid at 29 but the Razorbacks are just 1-5 in Q1 games..a neutral site win over San Diego State. They have failed to pick up SEC wins of note besides the win over Missouri. Just 1-5 on the road including losses to drek like Vandy and LSU this is a major red flag to take care of and actually avoided disaster in a narrow first road win at Q4 South Carolina on Saturday. A trip to Kentucky is next and looming toward the end of the season is a road trip at Alabama and Tennessee. Seen schools like this from the SEC play their way right out.
WISCONSIN is hanging on despite struggling mightily in Big 10 play now losing 7 of their last 9. That NET of 77 would scare most away. Still the Badgers can thank their non conference performance for keeping them in the running. A win at Marquette and nifty one over USC on a neutral court are solid starters. In Big 10 play there is the win at Iowa and home to Maryland so thats 4 wins vs tourney teams. SOS is a sparkling 8 and there are no losses outside Q2. 4-6 Q1, 7-9 Q1/2 are not bad numbers at all. The problem is can the Badgers hold the line here or will their losses start to overwhelm their willing profile.
NORTH CAROLINA finds themselves in a similar situation to last year. However last year they turned things around by winning at a top 5 Duke. Saturday they lost at a Duke team who isnt even top 25 in the country. The Tar Heels are an abysmal 1-7 in Q1 games and that one win is basically worthless given that Ohio State has gone into the crapper. 5 -1 in Q2 yet the only win vs a team in the field is over North Carolina State. The profile is clean with no bad losses and the sos stuff at 28/16 are big plusses. Their gauntlet is coming up in the last 8 with 6 Q1/2 games with 4 of them at home so a plethora of opportunities to play their way safely in the field....or not.
WRONG SIDE OF BUBBLE
- MEMPHIS
- MISSISSIPPI STATE
- TEXAS A&M
- SETON HALL
- VIRGINIA TECH
- PENN STATE
- FLORIDA
- CHARLESTON
- MICHIGAN
- WAKE FOREST
- OREGON
- ARIZONA STATE
- UTAH STATE
- UTAH
- SAINT LOUIS
- SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
- OKLAHOMA
Not a fan of MEMPHIS and even less so after they lost a Q3 game at home to Tulane which means they were swept by the GreenWave this year. The Tigers are basically riding a neutral site with over Auburn. There is a win over fellow bubble Texas A&M but note the loss to surging bubble Seton Hall. 6-5 in Q1/2 looks okay but those wins vs Cincy, Vandy, Nebby, and Temple do not move needles. AAC is down this year to the 11th rated conference and cannot assume this league is going to get 2 bids no matter the fact that Houston might wind up a one seed. The two games against Houston loom large but they cannot afford any more slip ups vs the mediocrity from the AAC.
SETON HALL legitimately is in play for an at large bid after winning 7 of 8. Those wins over UConn and at Rutgers...whoa! The win over Memphis is a nice one to stuff in their pocket. The Siena loss is one they want to have back because its their only loss preventing a clean profile. The SOS of 21/47 are solid here. It comes down to them winning down the stretch. The Big East is a bit down from past season so it is cutting down on quality win opportunities. Home tilts with Creighton and Xavier and road tilts with UConn and Providence. Pirates probably need to win 3 of these 4 unless they can sweep Nova. I think 5-2 is their goal to shoot for in the final 7.
MISSISSIPPI STATE is being slept on by many and its probably because of that woeful 3-7 conference mark. The Q1 mark of 2-5 and Q2 of 5-8 are sort of meh but there are quality non conference wins here over Marquette and TCU and MAC AQ Akron. In league the best is just Missouri and there is a loss to bubble Florida. Losses to Drake and Georgia are Q2 but those are not the kind of losses you want. 0-4 vs Bama/Tennessee and there are limited opportunities in the remaining slate, at Ark and Missouri and home to Kentucky. Need to grab 2 of these and avoid absorbing a loss to SEC bottom feeders.
VIRGINIA TECH has some very good wins over Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, and Oklahoma State plus another decent win over Penn State but the 0-7 mark on the road is a non starter. Impossible to overcome that and features losses to the likes of Syracuse and BC. Non conference sos of 258 is not helping either. Have a fairly favorable schedule with 3 road trips to ACC sisters of the poor but they will need to annex those home opportunities vs Miami and Pitt.
MICHIGAN looks to be coming on just as they did last year but that loss total is a bit bulky. 5-3 down the stretch puts them at 18-13 which should add to their Q1/2 win total. Notch 14 losses before Big10 tourney time and they become a longshot. A sweep of Northwestern, win over Maryland and at Pitt are good starters but need to do more. The dreadful Q4 loss to Central Michigan looms quite large. After Nebraska, their last 7 games are all quality win chances although closing with 3 of 4 on the road is brutal.
Life support on the way for WAKE FOREST, UTAH, SAINT LOUIS
OKLAHOMA has reached a bridge too far for now as their record has hit 12-11/2-8 in the Big 12. The unexpected huge win at Alabama was followed up by losing winnable games at home to Ok State and a 32 point beatdown at West Virginia which represented a soft part in the Sooners schedule.
So there it is... hope you filled up. Thoughts and comments and questions about individual schools are welcome....and don't forget to spot any needed corrections.
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