2/6: BACATOLOGY SMORGASBOARD*****RU now a 6 seed as of 2/8
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its a stunningly bad home loss because that means they were swept by BC, one a Q3, the other is Q4
whats even worse is they are 0-7 on the road this year so 4 more road games and 3 home games. They basically have to win 6 of 7 at this point
yup bad loss for them. They are working their way out of that 2 seed. They have Bama coming up next week so that could change
SHU still has opportunities later but this was probably going to the be the easiest one. Not looking good for them.
too many schools..having 15 schools is too many and about 5 are total trash
yep WVU needed that one...ditto for OK St to just avoid the bad loss but the Cowboys are still in that last 8 in line so more to do.
PSU in real danger now after an OT loss to Wisconsin. Temple all but done short of winning the AAC Tourney after a brutal loss to SMU. Interesting game on now between SDSU and USU...can USU take advantage of the bubble team blunders tonight?
Refs just ****ed SDSU by throwing out one of their better starters but everyone on Utah State gets to stay.
Edit: Apparently three deep bench guys for USU are out. A trade they'll happily take.
Second edit: Maybe bad info? The SDSU guy is definitely gone but unclear about USU.
Edit: Apparently three deep bench guys for USU are out. A trade they'll happily take.
Second edit: Maybe bad info? The SDSU guy is definitely gone but unclear about USU.
It’s only one more than the Big Ten (which is about to have 16)
Agreed OOC scheduling can be something that could keep a bubble team out but doesn't really apply to Rutgers or Illinois this year.
Yeah, conference expansion has really hurt ACC hoops. Which is bizarre when you think that they added Syracuse, Louisville and Notre Dame, programs that have a long history of hoops success. Unfortunately those programs have largely sucked and the other additions like BC, Pitt etc are real anchors.
Hoping once the big recruits come in for RU like Bailey that Pike stops scheduling OOC like a coward. It hasn't backfired on us yet but if our ultimate goal is to get to a Final Four down the road, we need to up the OOC even just a little.
Some of that probably takes care of itself. As the Rutgers profile increases, more likely to get better match ups. I would use the ACC Challenge as an example but of course that's gone. But still probably more likely to get invites to the better MTEs, Maui, preseason NIT, etc.
And to blow the MWC doubters mind, UNLV
And yet a 16-8 UNLV could still jump into the conversation. It’s like a MWC wack a mole or more aptly Mole Wack Conference to drive bracketologists crazy.
I think it's hard to blame conference expansion for programs getting worse after joining. I think it's just the natural ebb and flow. The Big 12 isn't going to be dominant forever. The Big 10 was kind of weak and then super good and now very good but a distant second.
Bubble Bucket time. This time they are in a rough order.
Last 12 In
West Virginia - Now up to 8-9 in Q1/Q2 with no bad losses and a great strength of schedule. They're in at 17-14 so they just need two more wins the rest of the way.
Pittsburgh - 8-7 in the top two quadrants including five Q1 wins. There are a lot of opportunities for this resume to get worse (at Florida State, v Boston College, v Georgia Tech, at Notre Dame) and not really many to improve it (at Virginia Tech, at Miami). They're in as long as they don't lose one of those first four.
Nevada - 8-6 in Q1/Q2, decent strength of schedule, no losses outside the first two quadrants. Their three Q1 wins are soft (home vs. teams in the 20s, road vs #38) but they exist, so whatever, good on you Nevada.
USC - 7-5 in Q1/Q2 but with an ugly Q4 loss on the ledger. Their game tonight at Oregon is bigger for the Ducks but USC's key stretch is the mountain road trip at the end of February: At Colorado, at Utah. Both are looking like winnable Q1 games.
Boise State - Their Q4 loss has bumped up to Q3. To some degree they're dining out on the Texas A&M win (their only in Q1) but the 6-1 Q2 record helps. If they go 4-0 in their should-wins and beat one of New Mexico, San Diego State, or @Utah State they'll be in.
Northwestern - I keep waiting for the fade and they keep fighting it off. 5-4 Q1, 2-3 Q2, no bad losses. They've got a gauntlet coming up though. Six Q1 games in their final eight and one other (home vs. Iowa) might be Q1 by the time it happens and the other is home against Penn State which is no picnic. Good luck.
Wisconsin - They're now 8-9 in the first two quadrants with six Q1 wins and no bad losses. Four of their final seven are at home including three in a row coming up. Can this team get in at 17-14, which would be a split of the home games plus road victories over Nebraska and Minnesota? That'd be "don't lose a bad one in the conference tournament"/Dayton range. 4-3 definitely gets them in.
Oklahoma State - 7-6 in Q1/Q2 with a Q3 loss. They're likely in at 17-14 (so two more wins) but not a certainty like West Virginia is. As with all Big 12 teams the upcoming schedule is a meat grinder but they've put themselves in a good spot.
North Carolina - Now it gets fun. UNC is 1-8 in Q1 games but only has one loss outside of that, which was Q2. They have three potential Q1 opportunities left: Home vs Miami (right on the Q2 border), at NC State, home vs Virginia. First they host Clemson in a game both teams really need.
Kentucky - The Wildcats are 1-7 in Q1 with only one loss outside of that, but theirs was a Q4 defeat at home to South Carolina. They've got four, maybe five Q1 chances left (home vs Auburn is the Q1/Q2 tossup) but three of those are on the road.
New Mexico - 5-3 in the first two quadrants but two Q3 losses. Same issue as Pittsburgh where there's a lot more downside than upside left on the schedule: four road games vs three home games, and only two games left against top-100 teams. Big point in their favor: the road win at St. Mary's is as good as it gets.
Memphis - Only one Q1 win, barely above .500 in Q2 (4-3), and a Q3 loss to boot. It's a dented resume but there's still two big ones left against Houston. What happens if they lose both of those but win the rest? They'd be 1-4 in Q1, 6-3 in Q2. If they can't beat Houston, they'd better beat everyone else.
First 12 Out
Texas A&M - 2-4 in Q1 with two Q4 losses. They're feasting on an easy SEC schedule just like our next team was doing in the ACC. One of their Q1 wins (at Florida) is relatively meh. They have three home games left: Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama. Win one of those.
Clemson - 3-3 in Q1 with two Q4 losses... and also a Q3 loss. Their Q1 wins are not great Q1 wins: vs. #29 Duke, at #55 Virginia Tech, at #51 Pittsburgh. They've got road games coming up with UNC, NC State, and Virginia. They cannot improve their resume with their remaining home games (FSU, Syracuse, ND) so they need to do some work on the road.
Oregon - 3-6 Q1, 4-2 Q2... but two Q3 losses. Massive massive weekend for them with the LA schools coming to town. If they can't get a win tonight or Saturday they're screwed because none of their final five games does anything to help them.
Seton Hall - Missed opportunity last night against Creighton. Hall is under water in both Q1 (3-6) and Q2 (2-3) and has a Q3 loss to boot.
Mississippi State - The inverse of Texas A&M's SEC schedule. The Bulldogs had it really rough and finally got through that to win their last four and re-establish themselves. Their resume is exactly like Seton Hall's except they have no Q3 loss but one fewer Q1 win. I lean toward giving credit for wins vs penalizing losses, so that's why I have SHU just ahead.
Penn State - Boy this went south in a hurry. This is very slightly worse than Mississippi State's: 2-6 in Q1 (as opposed to 2-5), 3-4 (as opposed to 2-3) in Q2, no bad losses, so with more losses overall (16-8 vs. 14-10) they slot here.
Wake Forest - To me this is where the bubble starts to really drop off. Wake Forest is below .500 in the first two quadrants including 2-6 against Q1 and they have a Q3 loss. Even if they split at Miami/at NC State that still only gets them to 3-7 in Q1 without a signature win -- maybe you can argue at Miami would count, but Seton Hall's beaten Rutgers and UConn, Mississippi State beat Marquette, Oregon beat Arizona... The Deacs won't have anything like that on their resume.
Michigan - 2-8 in Q1 with a Q4 loss. They've started to figure things out over the past week and a half and are riding a three game winning streak and have a great spot coming up with Indiana coming to town primed for a letdown after a massive rivalry win and a monkey-off-the-back win over Rutgers.
Utah State - Is is too early to mail their "highest rated NET team to miss the tournament" trophy? They fell to 0-4 in Q1 and still have two Q4 losses. If you have two brutal losses and zero good wins to offset, you aren't making the tournament. They have a Q1 (for now) game left against Boise State, and then the MWC tournament will be chock full of them, so I suppose it is too soon to mail that trophy. You can print the shipping label though.
Virginia Tech - 3-5 Q1, 2-3 Q2, with both a Q3 and a Q4 loss. Yuck. We're very close to autobid or bust territory. They have games left against Pitt, Miami, and @Duke. They need two of those at the absolute minimum to play themselves back into contention.
Oklahoma - Four Q1 wins! Unfortunately that comes with nine Q1 losses, and a 1-3 Q2 record as well. Since blasting Alabama to get to 12-9 they've lost three in a row by double digits. Can they go 5-2 to get to 17-14? I really doubt it.
Florida - Joe Lunardi had the Gators as his second team out entering yesterday, and a road loss to Alabama shouldn't really change that. But... They're 2-9 in Q1 and 1-2 in Q2! That's not even close to good enough. And they're really running out of chances to improve that mark with only @Arkansas and home vs Kentucky left. Let's say they lose at Arkansas but win all six other games. We need to agree that a team that can only win 16% of Q1 games doesn't deserve to be in.
Last 12 In
West Virginia - Now up to 8-9 in Q1/Q2 with no bad losses and a great strength of schedule. They're in at 17-14 so they just need two more wins the rest of the way.
Pittsburgh - 8-7 in the top two quadrants including five Q1 wins. There are a lot of opportunities for this resume to get worse (at Florida State, v Boston College, v Georgia Tech, at Notre Dame) and not really many to improve it (at Virginia Tech, at Miami). They're in as long as they don't lose one of those first four.
Nevada - 8-6 in Q1/Q2, decent strength of schedule, no losses outside the first two quadrants. Their three Q1 wins are soft (home vs. teams in the 20s, road vs #38) but they exist, so whatever, good on you Nevada.
USC - 7-5 in Q1/Q2 but with an ugly Q4 loss on the ledger. Their game tonight at Oregon is bigger for the Ducks but USC's key stretch is the mountain road trip at the end of February: At Colorado, at Utah. Both are looking like winnable Q1 games.
Boise State - Their Q4 loss has bumped up to Q3. To some degree they're dining out on the Texas A&M win (their only in Q1) but the 6-1 Q2 record helps. If they go 4-0 in their should-wins and beat one of New Mexico, San Diego State, or @Utah State they'll be in.
Northwestern - I keep waiting for the fade and they keep fighting it off. 5-4 Q1, 2-3 Q2, no bad losses. They've got a gauntlet coming up though. Six Q1 games in their final eight and one other (home vs. Iowa) might be Q1 by the time it happens and the other is home against Penn State which is no picnic. Good luck.
Wisconsin - They're now 8-9 in the first two quadrants with six Q1 wins and no bad losses. Four of their final seven are at home including three in a row coming up. Can this team get in at 17-14, which would be a split of the home games plus road victories over Nebraska and Minnesota? That'd be "don't lose a bad one in the conference tournament"/Dayton range. 4-3 definitely gets them in.
Oklahoma State - 7-6 in Q1/Q2 with a Q3 loss. They're likely in at 17-14 (so two more wins) but not a certainty like West Virginia is. As with all Big 12 teams the upcoming schedule is a meat grinder but they've put themselves in a good spot.
North Carolina - Now it gets fun. UNC is 1-8 in Q1 games but only has one loss outside of that, which was Q2. They have three potential Q1 opportunities left: Home vs Miami (right on the Q2 border), at NC State, home vs Virginia. First they host Clemson in a game both teams really need.
Kentucky - The Wildcats are 1-7 in Q1 with only one loss outside of that, but theirs was a Q4 defeat at home to South Carolina. They've got four, maybe five Q1 chances left (home vs Auburn is the Q1/Q2 tossup) but three of those are on the road.
New Mexico - 5-3 in the first two quadrants but two Q3 losses. Same issue as Pittsburgh where there's a lot more downside than upside left on the schedule: four road games vs three home games, and only two games left against top-100 teams. Big point in their favor: the road win at St. Mary's is as good as it gets.
Memphis - Only one Q1 win, barely above .500 in Q2 (4-3), and a Q3 loss to boot. It's a dented resume but there's still two big ones left against Houston. What happens if they lose both of those but win the rest? They'd be 1-4 in Q1, 6-3 in Q2. If they can't beat Houston, they'd better beat everyone else.
First 12 Out
Texas A&M - 2-4 in Q1 with two Q4 losses. They're feasting on an easy SEC schedule just like our next team was doing in the ACC. One of their Q1 wins (at Florida) is relatively meh. They have three home games left: Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama. Win one of those.
Clemson - 3-3 in Q1 with two Q4 losses... and also a Q3 loss. Their Q1 wins are not great Q1 wins: vs. #29 Duke, at #55 Virginia Tech, at #51 Pittsburgh. They've got road games coming up with UNC, NC State, and Virginia. They cannot improve their resume with their remaining home games (FSU, Syracuse, ND) so they need to do some work on the road.
Oregon - 3-6 Q1, 4-2 Q2... but two Q3 losses. Massive massive weekend for them with the LA schools coming to town. If they can't get a win tonight or Saturday they're screwed because none of their final five games does anything to help them.
Seton Hall - Missed opportunity last night against Creighton. Hall is under water in both Q1 (3-6) and Q2 (2-3) and has a Q3 loss to boot.
Mississippi State - The inverse of Texas A&M's SEC schedule. The Bulldogs had it really rough and finally got through that to win their last four and re-establish themselves. Their resume is exactly like Seton Hall's except they have no Q3 loss but one fewer Q1 win. I lean toward giving credit for wins vs penalizing losses, so that's why I have SHU just ahead.
Penn State - Boy this went south in a hurry. This is very slightly worse than Mississippi State's: 2-6 in Q1 (as opposed to 2-5), 3-4 (as opposed to 2-3) in Q2, no bad losses, so with more losses overall (16-8 vs. 14-10) they slot here.
Wake Forest - To me this is where the bubble starts to really drop off. Wake Forest is below .500 in the first two quadrants including 2-6 against Q1 and they have a Q3 loss. Even if they split at Miami/at NC State that still only gets them to 3-7 in Q1 without a signature win -- maybe you can argue at Miami would count, but Seton Hall's beaten Rutgers and UConn, Mississippi State beat Marquette, Oregon beat Arizona... The Deacs won't have anything like that on their resume.
Michigan - 2-8 in Q1 with a Q4 loss. They've started to figure things out over the past week and a half and are riding a three game winning streak and have a great spot coming up with Indiana coming to town primed for a letdown after a massive rivalry win and a monkey-off-the-back win over Rutgers.
Utah State - Is is too early to mail their "highest rated NET team to miss the tournament" trophy? They fell to 0-4 in Q1 and still have two Q4 losses. If you have two brutal losses and zero good wins to offset, you aren't making the tournament. They have a Q1 (for now) game left against Boise State, and then the MWC tournament will be chock full of them, so I suppose it is too soon to mail that trophy. You can print the shipping label though.
Virginia Tech - 3-5 Q1, 2-3 Q2, with both a Q3 and a Q4 loss. Yuck. We're very close to autobid or bust territory. They have games left against Pitt, Miami, and @Duke. They need two of those at the absolute minimum to play themselves back into contention.
Oklahoma - Four Q1 wins! Unfortunately that comes with nine Q1 losses, and a 1-3 Q2 record as well. Since blasting Alabama to get to 12-9 they've lost three in a row by double digits. Can they go 5-2 to get to 17-14? I really doubt it.
Florida - Joe Lunardi had the Gators as his second team out entering yesterday, and a road loss to Alabama shouldn't really change that. But... They're 2-9 in Q1 and 1-2 in Q2! That's not even close to good enough. And they're really running out of chances to improve that mark with only @Arkansas and home vs Kentucky left. Let's say they lose at Arkansas but win all six other games. We need to agree that a team that can only win 16% of Q1 games doesn't deserve to be in.
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Great stuff...very close to my thinking....only real quibble is how do you justify Auburn not being in the last 12 grouping. They have just have wins over Arkansas and Northwestern. Swept by Texas A&M. Yes two wins to Florida, Miss State which helps but to me this is a resume in serious need. At least Kentucky has a win over Tennessee. I think. To me Northwestern even with the loss to Auburn, Nevada, Pitt and WVU all have better profiles than Auburn. I do realize its a fairly clean profile although that loss to Georgia is teetering on moving to Q3
only other difference is I still have Memphis out and Clemson in for now.
I know RU isnt in the bubble discussion so it makes it less interesting that way but I really think this year is WEAK. I have a hard time in finding my fourth team out after last nights results. In fact I can only indentify 14 schools on the wrong side of the bubble and most of those are extreme longshots, usually that number would still be around 20 now
FIRST FOUR BYES: OKLAHOMA STATE, NEW MEXICO, WISCONSIN, AUBURN
LAST FOUR IN: BOISE STATE, NORTH CAROLINA, KENTUCKY, CLEMSON
FIRST FOUR OUT: MISSISSIPPI STATE, MEMPHIS, TEXAS A&M, SETON HALL
NEXT FOUR OUT: WAKE FOREST, FLORIDA, VIRGINIA TECH, PENN STATE
Agreed. It was looking strong at the end of January when Oklahoma beat Alabama, Seton Hall was on the rise, Penn State had just spanked Michigan, Virginia Tech had beaten Duke, etc. Still about a month left so it will flip back again at least one more time and there'll be a week where all the bubble teams are winning games and putting pressure on each other to keep up.
That's a good call on Auburn. I put the least amount of thought into the very top of the list but with another look now I would definitely put WVU ahead of them.
and Clemson's is looking worse by the day. That Va Tech took that bad loss to BC knocks Clemson;s resume down because of the lessened value of their sweep over them. I think their non conference sos of 339 is their downfall. Many bracketologists including me are trying to catch up in their placement. You may be entirely right that at this moment, they probably shouldnt be in the field. Still if the season ended TODAY, while they are not the AQ, they still are tied for first. I cannot believe if they go 15-5 and they are tied for first, that they would be left out.
Guess Clemson at the top of the ACC and barely hanging on the bubble is all you need to know about the ACC this year.
Or Pitt tied for the same.
I missed Pitt blowing out Northwestern. How did that happen?
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