Projects us with a 17-14 (8-12) record.
2020 KenPom has us 63rd
- Thread starter kcg88
- Start date
I’d take that.
Would be our highest finish since 1999 in these ratings.
It’s as good a guess as any. Two questions:
1) If we then go 1-1 in the B1G tourney, to finish 18-15, do we get a NIT invite?
2) If we go 10-10 in conference and 1-1 in the B1G tourney, to finish 20-13, do we get an NCAA invite? Bubble?
1) If we then go 1-1 in the B1G tourney, to finish 18-15, do we get a NIT invite?
2) If we go 10-10 in conference and 1-1 in the B1G tourney, to finish 20-13, do we get an NCAA invite? Bubble?
so.....the projection is that we are 7-0 heading to the game at Pitt.
KenPom in the 4 game stretch projected.......
at Pitt L 71-68
at MSU L 80-64
Wisconsin W 68-67
SHU L 73-71
Pitt is ranked #67, MSU #1, Wisconsin #45, SHU #20, Rutgers #63
KenPom in the 4 game stretch projected.......
at Pitt L 71-68
at MSU L 80-64
Wisconsin W 68-67
SHU L 73-71
Pitt is ranked #67, MSU #1, Wisconsin #45, SHU #20, Rutgers #63
63 likely gets RU into the NIT. I would gladly take that this season.
It seems like it is FINALLY coming together. Being in the Big Ten, every game on TV, the new RWJ Barnabas Center, Coach Pike, and keeping the staff around. Now if someone buys the paint, I am willing to paint those rusted out metal pieces on The RAC that haven’t been touched since 1977 !
How awesome to look forward to the team playing meaningful games late into the season!
If we go 20-13, we go dancing depending on who we lose to, and where we win and lose, poor road/neutral records are death.
You realize that basically what you are saying is that even if Rutgers is 20-13 there is still a chance the team don't make the NCAA Tournament.
There is a disconnect between kenpom and bartovik has us and preseason polls. Normally I would side with the computers. Taking a closer look though.......
kenpom
2019
adj offensive 105.6 152nd
adj defensive 96.8 46th
2020 projections
adj off 105.6 86th
adj def 93.4 42nd
bart
2019
adj o 104.9 145th
adj d 96.1 50th
2020
adj o 109.9 61st
adj d 95.5 36th
The issue I have is that they have us improving on defense. The loss of Eugene does not show up anywhere on defense except for his defensive rebounding (which might be replaceable).
IF we are to finish what these 2 computers say we are going to have to be even better on offense because I don't see us staying the same or slightly improving defense.
Love to be wrong here!
kenpom
2019
adj offensive 105.6 152nd
adj defensive 96.8 46th
2020 projections
adj off 105.6 86th
adj def 93.4 42nd
bart
2019
adj o 104.9 145th
adj d 96.1 50th
2020
adj o 109.9 61st
adj d 95.5 36th
The issue I have is that they have us improving on defense. The loss of Eugene does not show up anywhere on defense except for his defensive rebounding (which might be replaceable).
IF we are to finish what these 2 computers say we are going to have to be even better on offense because I don't see us staying the same or slightly improving defense.
Love to be wrong here!
Eugene wasn't a good defender in my eyes other than the charges. He didn't block shots or get steals.
He wasn’t a good defender from a computer model standpoint.
We definitely strongly disagree here. If I am wrong it is a VERY good thing. Almost my entire hypothesis of why we are going to underperform is based on losing Eugene on the defensive end. Both what he did on the floor and leading by example on that side (only that side) of the floor.
I think that's valid. I'm hopeful that much of that can be replicated through coaching. Losing Jay Young hurts in this regard, but if the staff was able to fire up Omoruyi to lead by example on defense I think they can fire someone else up to do it as well.
In 2018, EO had a total of 20 steals(0 7) and 7 blocks(0.3) in 28 games, and 83 fouls, 3.0 PFs a game(most on team) and 2.5 TOV(2nd on the team to Geo). Freeman averaged 1.3 steals, 0.8 blocks, 2.5 PFs and 1.9 TOV for his career, as a comparison. I don't think the EO loss defensively will be as bad as most think.
I have no stats to back this up, just the eye test, but in some respects we’ll miss Shaq Doorson’s defense. He was a beast at times, with his incredible size and strength he was an immovable object that anchored the D underneath and his presence was critical in some games, imo.
Btw to be fair to Gene, you should combine stats for steals and charges, because taking a charge is the equivalent of a steal. It’s actually more valuable than a steal because it pins another foul on our opponent (personal foul and team foul).
In addition a charge most times turns a situation where the offense has a clear advantage (penetration in the lane) and will probably score above the average point per possession to a ZERO,
One thing many are forgetting is that defensive rebounding is PART OF "defense." And Eugene was our best rebounder in the front court. That's where I feel we will miss him the most.
He had a couple of teams that were ranked No. 103 and No. 107 to start the season but finished No. 198 and No. 170 (I think I got that right). His final team was ranked No. 221 to start the season and finished at No. 279.
So if we’re ranked 63rd by KenPom and there’s 68 teams that dance then what am I missing?
I’m not the sharpest crayon in the box but to me ol’ Kenny thinks we’re good enough to tango....
I’m not the sharpest crayon in the box but to me ol’ Kenny thinks we’re good enough to tango....
I dont know how many times this can be repeated but I believe when a player isn't physically active with their feet and allowed to push and use their bodies, it can look like good defense....Shaq was an important matchup in games like Minnesota and Ohio State at home, where Wesson, Jordan Murphy were tough players that wanted to use their bulk.
Mixed with Eugene, you cannot effectively play both more than 20 minutes together OR look efficient with Eugene and Myles Johnson on offense, because one or both operated better in the low post.
Defensively, RU will have to be creative, but Doucoure myles and Shaq Carter can play an effective 40 combined minutes at the 4/5 & mix some Harper or Caleb or Yeboah who essentially are the same height as Eugene. I believe they have the same foot speed as Eugene at 75 to 80%, which is the max I would have given Eugene by January physically.
I know fans view things on a game to game or month to month basis....I am looking at this as a 2 season window, not 1. In the next 2 years, this team needed better perimeter shooting and defense from it's 4 spot. And I would sacrifice 2 point interior defense, if it means we are a little better on the perimeter defense. Issa Thiam, Eugene and Shaq Doorson were not good on the ball defensively in the 1st half of last year and I expect the offense and defense to be better in the 1st half of this year vs last year.
EO post injury wasn't a good defender. His lateral movement and explosiveness just wasn't there. He also tried to take too many charges. Sometimes he committed fouls or just flopped and gave up a free basket.
Conference champs at many of the conferences will have rankings lower than 68. They will get automatic bids. The tourney does not simply take the Top 68 teams.
Omoruyi's biggest defensive strengths were court awareness, help defense, and defensive positioning - none of which show up on a stat sheet. Stepping in to close off lanes to force penetrating players to pass or put up bad shots, taking pressure off of perimeter defenders because they knew he'd back them up if they were beaten off the dribble... those types of things can't be seen in a box score.
I wouldn't expect us to automatically dance at 20-13 - would depend on who we beat and lost to. NC State was 22-11 last year and missed the cutoff. Colorado at 21-12 and TCU at 20-13 also went NIT.
You must remember but probably only about 40-45 of the top 63 will make the NCAA. Many teams win their league championship in mid major leagues and are no where near the top 63 or so in the country but make the NCAA because they won their league championship.
200% (not taking too many charges part though), BUT our defense as a team post Eugene injury significantly tailed off and the numbers really bare it out.
