2020 KenPom has us 63rd

[Russ Wood]

I wouldn't expect us to automatically dance at 20-13 - would depend on who we beat and lost to. NC State was 22-11 last year and missed the cutoff. Colorado at 21-12 and TCU at 20-13 also went NIT.

Oh I get that, but the post I responded to said If we go 20-13, we go dancing depending on this, this, and this.

That's almost like saying if I go to the gas station I'll get gas depending on if they are open, aren't out of gas, their pumps are working and (if I happen to be in New Jersey) there is someone available to pump the gas for me.

 

[Russ Wood]

You must remember but probably only about 40-45 of the top 63 will make the NCAA. Many teams win their league championship in mid major leagues and are no where near the top 63 or so in the country but make the NCAA because they won their league championship.

Temple was in the tournament this year and they were No. 67 on Selection Sunday. They were not an AQ

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Duke Carter and Myles playing an effective 40 minutes of D would mean a really in shape Myles and/or a REALLY improved Carter and Duke.

With Eugene on 1 leg Pike played Carter only 10 MPG down the stretch. Carter is undersized for center

 

[RUSK97]

The schedule is more challenging this year.

 

[Scangg]

Duke Carter and Myles playing an effective 40 minutes of D would mean a really in shape Myles and/or a REALLY improved Carter and Duke.

With Eugene on 1 leg Pike played Carter only 10 MPG down the stretch. Carter is undersized for center

When Pike says Carter is the most improved player, I really hope a major reason he is saying that is his improvement on the defensive end. He has the athleticism to be a really good pick and roll defender and get back to cover the basket. That's an area our bigs like Doorson really struggled in. Myles improved physically as well and hopefully he can do a good job in those scenarios and not get caught out of position and foul.

Pick and Roll D without Doorson and stopping quick PGs from penetration into the lane with ease due to Young are two areas we really struggled last season that I think we can improve

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I hope so

 

[ScarletR30]

Eugene wasn't a good defender in my eyes other than the charges. He didn't block shots or get steals.

Yes and he was very slow on his close outs to the perimeter. Even his charges were not as valuable because it often took him out of the play and led to an easy 2. EO's D is the most overrated portion of his game.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Yes and he was very slow on his close outs to the perimeter. Even his charges were not as valuable because it often took him out of the play and led to an easy 2. EO's D is the most overrated portion of his game.

I don't think I remember hearing this when he was on the team. Many posts had him a warrior giving up his body. When he was injured there was an almost consensus that we beat Northwestern with him. Now that he has left 90% of what I hear is how we are better without him.

 

[Scangg]

I don't think I remember hearing this when he was on the team. Many posts had him a warrior giving up his body. When he was injured there was an almost consensus that we beat Northwestern with him. Now that he has left 90% of what I hear is how we are better without him.

You seem to have trouble separating the value and importance of EO between seasons as you've posted a similar take multiple times. Different year. Different team. EO was extremely important to last year's roster. EO would have been much less important to this year's roster. Both are true.

A team with the freshman versions of Harper Mathis Caleb Myles, first year B1G players in Kiss and Carter, and no Young, Yeboah, and Mulcahy needed EO in a huge way... Last season...

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

It is opinion.

I am not agreeing with you today, but acknowledge you could be right.

No doubt this is a different team. I need to wait and see if there is a difference in "need" of what Eugene provided.

I want to see Young prevent guys getting in the lane.
I need to see Caleb improve defensively
I need to see Harper improve defensively
Geo is a junior not expecting huge improvement defensivey
I need Carter to be WAY better defensively than last year
Not sure what to expect from Yeboah
Myles needs to have had a great S&C offseason
Pike has time to change defensive philosophy...I RESPECT THIS

 

[Scangg]

It is opinion.

I am not agreeing with you today, but acknowledge you could be right.

No doubt this is a different team. I need to wait and see if there is a difference in "need" of what Eugene provided.

I want to see Young prevent guys getting in the lane.
I need to see Caleb improve defensively
I need to see Harper improve defensively
Geo is a junior not expecting huge improvement defensivey
I need Carter to be WAY better defensively than last year
Not sure what to expect from Yeboah
Myles needs to have had a great S&C offseason
Pike has time to change defensive philosophy...I RESPECT THIS

Carter is the biggest wild card defensively for me this season. He did look lost at times and out of position. Big jump from JuCo to B1G and he looks physicially improved. Athletically he has the ability to be a solid defender. Hopefully it clicks in year 2.

I wonder if the mods can ask about Carter's defense and when Pike says Carter is the most improved player if that has to do with the defensive end of the floor

 

[BoroKnight]

So if we’re ranked 63rd by KenPom and there’s 68 teams that dance then what am I missing?

I’m not the sharpest crayon in the box but to me ol’ Kenny thinks we’re good enough to tango....

Ummmm, lots of auto bids.

 

[RUHouston]

Ummmm, lots of auto bids.

Right, I get that now. What we don’t know at this moment is how many of the 32 auto bids are in the top 32 anyway.

Someone could probably go back and pull that data from the past ten years or so and figure it out.

Let’s say 20 of the 32 would go regardless of the auto bid. Leaves 12 potential ringers and another 36 deserving teams...so that’s 56 of 68....or we’d have to be in the top 56 to dance....

All hypothetical but the case can be made that we are definitely trending up.

 

[Westcoast]

In addition a charge most times turns a situation where the offense has a clear advantage (penetration in the lane) and will probably score above the average point per possession to a ZERO,

And there are times when an attempted drawn charge fails with a flop and easy layup.

 

[Westcoast]

And there are times when an attempted drawn charge fails with a flop and easy layup.

Ok, someone beat me to this. I was too lazy to read all the posts before posting. My bad.

 

[mikefla]

As Russ Wood mentioned under Eddie we were in the
:Laughing+190 range by end of season:Laughing

0__0At 63 we are in a different UNIVERSE0__0

:ThumbsUp[banana]:cool2:Color me ecstatic!:cool2:[banana]:ThumbsUp

 

[BillyC80]

And there are times when an attempted drawn charge fails with a flop and easy layup.

That’s true but with Eugene that was pretty rare. Guy was an artist when it came to drawing charges.
Drawing a charge is arguably the most valuable defensive stop, better than a steal or a blocked shot.

 

[blockm2]

Right, I get that now. What we don’t know at this moment is how many of the 32 auto bids are in the top 32 anyway.

Someone could probably go back and pull that data from the past ten years or so and figure it out.

Let’s say 20 of the 32 would go regardless of the auto bid. Leaves 12 potential ringers and another 36 deserving teams...so that’s 56 of 68....or we’d have to be in the top 56 to dance....

All hypothetical but the case can be made that we are definitely trending up.

every season there are several KenPom top 40 teams that get left out of the tourney, but you start to feel fairly good about your chances at that point depending on your resume to go with it.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

And there are times when an attempted drawn charge fails with a flop and easy layup.

How many times does the other 4 guys on the court play harder knowing the guy next to them is sacrificing their body.

Fans trying to talk themselves in to Eugene not being ultra important last year is almost comical. Watch games last year and re read what most were saying on the message board last year.

I'll bet Coach K misses Shane Battier.

 

[tjb]

every season there are several KenPom top 40 teams that get left out of the tourney, but you start to feel fairly good about your chances at that point depending on your resume to go with it.

2018: Penn State was KenPom 31 heading into its last game, a 78-70 loss to then KenPom No. 5 Purdue in the Big 10 tournament semis. Finished the regular season 21-13. The loss (combined with all other game results) pushed Penn State *up* to 29 on Selection Sunday.

Penn State ended up a 4 seed - in the NIT.

Penn State ended up 19 in KenPom. Won at Notre Dame and Marquette, and the NIT semi by 15, NIT final by 16.

View seems to be:

• Not enough wins over top teams
• Very poor OOC schedule

Some argue on Penn State forums that a similar record against a more challenging (or at least representative) OOC schedule would have tipped the scales in Penn State's favor.

 

[blockm2]

2018: Penn State was KenPom 31 heading into its last game, a 78-70 loss to then KenPom No. 5 Purdue in the Big 10 tournament semis. Finished the regular season 21-13. The loss (combined with all other game results) pushed Penn State *up* to 29 on Selection Sunday.

Penn State ended up a 4 seed - in the NIT.

Penn State ended up 19 in KenPom. Won at Notre Dame and Marquette, and the NIT semi by 15, NIT final by 16.

View seems to be:

• Not enough wins over top teams
• Very poor OOC schedule

Some argue on Penn State forums that a similar record against a more challenging (or at least representative) OOC schedule would have tipped the scales in Penn State's favor.

KenPom does a good job tracking performance and approximating the Vegas spread, but it provides little measure of other things the committee cares about such as resume (the actual who did you beat). It is theoretically possible to be a top 10 KenPom team with a below .500 record if your schedule is tough enough and you lost a bunch of nail biters and won the rest of your games by blowout. KenPom really only cares about the margin of victory in comparison to the pregame prediction. If you exceed the prediction you move up (even if you lose) and if you fall short you move down (even if you win).

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Assuming same competition.....

Kenpom would rather see you beat a team by 50 and then lose by 1 VS win 2 games by 20.

 

[Scarlet Blind]

ORtg(offense rating) last year, EO was 5th on the team behind Myles, Carter, Doorson, and RHJ.

DRtg(defense rating), EO was 4th on the team (Doucoure doesn't count) Myles, Caleb and Doorson. Looks like we will miss Doorson more than EO according to stats.

Another weird stat, EO had the highest usage rate 27% over Geo and Tez last year. Most teams highest usage rate should be your lead guard/PG.

 

[RUChoppin]

DRtg(defense rating), EO was 4th on the team (Doucoure doesn't count) Myles, Caleb and Doorson. Looks like we will miss Doorson more than EO according to stats.

We will definitely miss Doorson situationally, but he only played 551 min (Johnson played 546, McConnell played 481). Omoruyi played 841 min, behind only Baker.

His minutes will be replaced at the 4 by Harper and Carter (whose DRtg #s were worse) and by Yeboah (whose DRtg was better, but against an easier schedule).

And those numbers were largely while playing injured. Not saying he'd have stayed healthy if he'd stayed, but his defense would have been better with more mobility.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Very difficult for stats to measure defense. Eugene leading the team with a 27% usage rate without being offensive efficient is something to watch for.

There are a few "themes" I'll be looking at during the 1st 11 games. The allocation of the excess usage (27 >20% (which is 1 player/5 players) and what that does to the efficiency of other taking on that burden.

Conference play
Player ...usage...o rating....eFG%
Eugene 27.0%....98.9....42.3%
Montez 23.3%....90.4....42.7%
Geo 23.1%....87.6....41.0%
Caleb 19.8%....103.2...52.5%
Myles 18.7%.....104.7...56.5%
Ron H 17.2%.....113.9...52.5%
Shaq C 16.8%...108.8..54.6%
Peter 16.7%....96.9....46.0%

Ron and Caleb need to move the needle in to the 22+% range AND what happens to their O ratg/eFG% when that happens?

Assuming Young and Mulcahy are competent PGs Baker can't have a 41.0% eFG%. If that number doesn't improve we need to allocate some of his minutes elsewhere.

Looking at this 21 game sample of players with 1 year less experience it is pretty obvious what we need to see happen.

 

[BillyC80]

Taken as a whole, even without Gene I think our team this year will have more ways to outscore the opposition than we did last year.

 

[KevH]

63 likely gets RU into the NIT. I would gladly take that this season.

Is the NIT still assigning game locations based on projected attendance? Or am I confusing that with women's hoops? I wouldn't hate a 2004 type NIT run.

 

[Scangg]

Another weird stat, EO had the highest usage rate 27% over Geo and Tez last year. Most teams highest usage rate should be your lead guard/PG.

This is one of the reasons many people think we will be much better offensively this year without EO. More weapons and more shooters to run the offense through. When the ball got to EO the whole offense stopped and watched. He's a huge ball stopper. Now last season we needed to feed EO out of necessity, but this season more options, more experience, more shooters is going to lead to a better more balanced offense and better ball movement

 

[RUChoppin]

This is one of the reasons many people think we will be much better offensively this year without EO. More weapons and more shooters to run the offense through. When the ball got to EO the whole offense stopped and watched. He's a huge ball stopper. Now last season we needed to feed EO out of necessity, but this season more options, more experience, more shooters is going to lead to a better more balanced offense and better ball movement

Definitely expect the offense to improve, without a doubt. Defense will have to adjust, and we'll see what the delta there is.

 

[RutgHoops]

Duke Carter and Myles playing an effective 40 minutes of D would mean a really in shape Myles and/or a REALLY improved Carter and Duke.

With Eugene on 1 leg Pike played Carter only 10 MPG down the stretch. Carter is undersized for center

Eugene as a Sophomore and Eugene as a Junior were two COMPLETELY different players. Not saying Carter will make that significant a jump, but as a first year player in the program in '18-'19 it would be a surprise to me if Carter isn't measurably better this season.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

needs to be a LOT better....especially if we play 2 bigs for an extended time

 

[ScarletR30]

I don't think I remember hearing this when he was on the team. Many posts had him a warrior giving up his body. When he was injured there was an almost consensus that we beat Northwestern with him. Now that he has left 90% of what I hear is how we are better without him.

Did I say we are better? And my opinion on EO has always been this so don't try to put my blend my words with "the boards" words.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

My response wasnt entirely directed at you. However don't recall any voices about he was overrated as a defensive player and him taking charges weren't all good.

 

[ScarletR30]

My response wasnt entirely directed at you. However don't recall any voices about he was overrated as a defensive player and him taking charges weren't all good.

I have been saying his charge attempts were doing more harm than good for 1.5 years.

 

[AshCatchEm]

I don't think I remember hearing this when he was on the team. Many posts had him a warrior giving up his body. When he was injured there was an almost consensus that we beat Northwestern with him. Now that he has left 90% of what I hear is how we are better without him.

If the choice was yeboah or Eugene and we couldn't have both (because Eugene is scared of competition), then yes we are definitely better without eugene. One has a chance to be a legit shooter. The other does not.

 

[sport2231]

As far as EO is concerned I don’t think we need to over analysis it. To me it’s pretty simply as to what him not being here will mean good or bad

1) If he was willing to accept a dimished roll offensively we would be better off having him

2) If he still thought he was the best player on the team offensively and defensively, and tried to play like that, it would be bad

It reminds me of people saying we couldn’t replace Sanders. We overrate players on our team because we aren’t used to have great talent.

 

[Scangg]

As far as EO is concerned I don’t think we need to over analysis it. To me it’s pretty simply as to what him not being here will mean good or bad

1) If he was willing to accept a dimished roll offensively we would be better off having him

2) If he still thought he was the best player on the team offensively and defensively, and tried to play like that, it would be bad

It reminds me of people saying we couldn’t replace Sanders. We overrate players on our team because we aren’t used to have great talent.

Totally with you on those points. I don't think he wanted to take that reduced role and left. If he stayed and had a reduced role it would have lead to team chemistry issues as I don't think EO would have taken it well

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

No doubt at all these were going to be problems, especially given injuries.

Still doesn’t fill the void that last years team had which is why we could take a step back this year.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

When Pike says Carter is the most improved player, I really hope a major reason he is saying that is his improvement on the defensive end. He has the athleticism to be a really good pick and roll defender and get back to cover the basket. That's an area our bigs like Doorson really struggled in. Myles improved physically as well and hopefully he can do a good job in those scenarios and not get caught out of position and foul.

Pick and Roll D without Doorson and stopping quick PGs from penetration into the lane with ease due to Young are two areas we really struggled last season that I think we can improve

I think how the four minutes are distributed are very much dependent on who we are playing and the ability of carter and duke to do exactly what’s you suggest...be able to get cover the fours when they step out and be quick enough to be in position when they move back

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

No doubt at all these were going to be problems, especially given injuries.

Still doesn’t fill the void that last years team had which is why we could take a step back this year.

What void??

Purdue loses Carsen Edwards and Ryan Kline....that's a void, but they're going to adjust with similar players, being asked to step up into roles.

Wisconsin is picked higher than some people expect and they lost Ethan Happ...they're going to adjust to this "void".

Michigan loses key players and a coach, but has talented players on their bench or as recruits....they have a "void"???

Nebraska will be better than expected, because they have a better system, better coach in Fred Hoiberg, but everyone on their roster is different...is it a void, or just a new roster to prepare for??

We have 13 other programs that have to sort out the same things RU will. The elite ones are usually ranked and have depth in waiting or a immediately game ready recruit, so a departure doesn't have the dropoff as too steep, and just leans on other players ready for bigger roles.

The key for RU isn't what "void" is left....it's what other voids get fixed or improved by having others playing in Eugene's minutes, Shaq Doorsons minutes, the minutes Thiam played for almost half of last season that provided little to no production or impact on offense or defense.

There are "lost" minutes RU has had in their lineup on the floor, where players didn't have an strength or way to impact to the final score. This is, the 1st time in well over a decade, where every time we have 5 players on the court, all 5 have a defined strength or talent to the team concept. At times it was just 2 or 2.5 players or maybe 3 out of 5 players and unless those kids had very good games, RU wasn't going to win.

That means the 4th option RU has on the floor can hurt an opponent....the 5th player on the floor, can make a pass or assuredly be a threat to score, dribble, drive etc....or make a steal, grab a rebound and start the movement in transition to find an open shooter or easier shot.

The days of RU being able to beat teams one or two ways, is over....it's now capable of having multiple players that can lift a team. That is definitely not a void. It makes it very difficult for opponents to focus on 2 players and knowing the other 3, can't overcome the opponent.