KenPom Only Has Us Favored in 3 of Our Remaining 18 Big Ten Games
- Thread starter KK1827
- Start date
Some are predicting our future wins or losses based on today's kempom-- that's beyond asinine.
No it’s not lol. I commend people for being so proud of not knowing how anything works but Kenpom is absolutely a good baseline predictor of future wins and losses. That’s different than being some oracle from God that tells you exactly what will happen.
We’ve played poorly in 2 of our losses and played pretty well in the other two (good enough to beat most teams).
Not sure Kenpom could have predicted those outcomes (very close losses to 2 teams that should’ve crushed us, a loss to a team we should have crushed, and a blowout loss to a team that had just gotten annihilated in it’s previous game).
I’m wondering if using the most similar opponent from our previous games would be a better predictor of future games (after adjusting for home and road differences).
For example, if Princeton is most similar to Notre Dame, then I would expect us to win a close, relatively high scoring game on a neutral court.
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Isnt SHU one of the worst offensive teams in the country?
Haven't they also played a weak schedule to date? (don't have the metric for this)
1 of their 2 3's was a gross bank right?
How much of their futility was due to their own ineptitude? Likely a good percentage.
Does anyone stop Alabama? Their players understand what to do (and not do) on offense. They are a joy to watch as a fan of college basketball. I was saying before the season that Cliff would never see a post up. That inefficient garbage is discarded.
They got a guy who knows his role. 😂
I've played at other gyms where guys just launch it whenever they have the opportunity, even if losing means they won't see the court again for 20-30 minutes.
Do you think it's critical for the players to have a clearly defined role on offense?
Do you believe Pike have clearly defined everyone's role on offense, especially depending on which 5 are playing? I don't. There are too many examples by almost every player that lead me to my belief.
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By the same logic, the close losses that easily could have been wins against Alabama and TAMU should have you thrilled then, no?
They did until we didnt build off it as teams realized after the bama game that if you stop our pick n roll were nothing.
Ken Pom ( and rankings like it)is not a probability data base like flipping a coin. It is a good indicator of where you are now but not a good predictor of future results unless you can establish that the conditions under which the data were collected will not change. But, as we know, teams change over the course of a season. Some improve, some get worse, injuries (see Rutgers football) etc. does our KP rating tell us that we need significant improvement in many areas? Yes. Does it mean we will only win 5/6 more games? Not necessarily.
It's pretty much the best predictor we have.
It's like democracy: the worst system of government except for all of the other systems.
it's like a scale....
tells you how fat you are and what you will weigh in the future if you don't make a change (assuming your metabolism stays constant)
Someone who knows basketball! Amazing how anyone who watches basketball regularly didn’t know this as commentators mention it all the time.
You are one stupid individual I must say. That being said since you struggle with reading comprehension. I was not saying we are a top 40 team, I was simply stating that in the "numbers game" what it would have taken to get to a more favorable spot.
And im not saying your aunt has balls, I am simply stating if she did then she’d be your uncle
Well, duh!
Sure, take out of the game RU's 2 best players, around whom the entire team is built, around whom the entire offense is built ... and the team's offense looks as bad as least year's offense .. unless ONE of EITHER Harper or Bailey is in the game.
No sh*t Sherlock!
I mean what can I actually even say about a comment like this!
I think the plan is for one of Harper or Bailey to be on the floor at all times. It just so happened vs SHU that Harper drew 2 fouls BEFORE Bailey had a chance to be rested for 2-3 minutes, so I suspect the 2 were out of the line-up at the same time because of circumstances, not design. That will happen at times.
The way it appears to be working out, the rotation of Harper and Bailey happens in stages in each half:
Stage 1: Starting line-up, both in together for about 4-6 minutes.
Stage 2: BAILEY gets the 1st rest, it looks like, for several minutes.
Stage 3: Bailey returns and Harper hits the bench for a rest Usually Bailey and another player come in at the same time - the other player being a guard to replace Harper ... i.e. Bailey does not sub for Harper directly).
Stage 4: Harper returns to the game, while Bailey stays in the game. This then remains the same for the rest of the half (both 1st and 2nd half).
There are times when Harper and/or Bailey, other than foul trouble, may get a quick rest, not at the same time, 1 minute before a scheduled TV time out, if there is a stoppage - or if Pikiell has plenty of time outs left he will often call a timeout at the 6 or 5 minute mark of the 2nd half after an RU make, and give one of these 2 stars a quick break.
In regards the overall rotation, it has varied over the course of the 1st 11 games. The last 2 games, with Davis starting, without going back and checking exactly, it FEELS like the rotation works something like this (I could be wrong, but think I am close):
1) Starters: Harper, Bailey, Williams, Ogbole, Davis.
2) Sommerville is generally the 1st man off the bench, replacing Ogbole - sometimes as early as the 17:30 mark of each half - a little later if Ogbole is visibly doing well - but NEVER later than the 16 minute mark, I don't think.
3) If Sommerville enters later, Derkack enters with him, for Williams, Davis or Harper, Williams and/or Davis rested first, I think ... but sometimes Derkack is a separate entry from Sommerville...
4) Hayes seems to be next in line, to rest Bailey. Martini may also come in around this time, in situational substitution for Sommerville.
5) Bailey returns, along with either Acuff or Williams, while Harper rests - and someone else of course must depart (Hayes or Derkack),
6) Harper returns - but Davis does NOT, unless there is a perceived need for defensive focus.
