Rutgers starts #59
Purdue is #1
12 out of 14 B1G top 60,
Penn St.#85, Minnesota #112
Future opponents USC #21, UCLA #26, Oregon #41, Washington #78
B1G is still a top 2/3 conference
Last edited:
2024 Ken Pom
- Thread starter Scarlet Blind
- Start date
Rutgers starts #59
Purdue is #1
12 out of 14 B1G top 60,
Penn St.#85, Minnesota #112
Future opponents USC #21, UCLA #26, Oregon #41, Washington #78
B1G is still a top 2/3 conference
Decent analysis here on our starting number:
https://thescarletfaithful.com/anal...023-24-kenpom-release-for-rutgers-basketball/
https://thescarletfaithful.com/anal...023-24-kenpom-release-for-rutgers-basketball/
59th is not too bad nationally based on us loosing 3 starters.
They have 12 teams ahead of us in the B10.
Only PSU and Minny are ranked lower.
I never liked Kenpom and I believe we’ll finish ahead of at least half (7). We shall see.
They have 12 teams ahead of us in the B10.
Only PSU and Minny are ranked lower.
I never liked Kenpom and I believe we’ll finish ahead of at least half (7). We shall see.
Kenpom is stuck looking at Rutgers based on the past.
Lets see if ken is right and it is the same Rutgers with low tempo, average offense and very good defense.
Based on preseason talking heads one would expect the overall number fine, but with better O, worse D and significant higher tempo.
Personally…..our metrics always seem pretty close to the prevoius year despite preseason expectations and coachspeak. If i had to guess…..the talk of an uptempo Rutgers doesnt materiallize, the demise of our D doesnt happen and our offense remains average.
I dont know how the saying goes….you cant take the something out of something. Pike is Pike. We will defend and everything else will adjust to us defending.
Lets see if ken is right and it is the same Rutgers with low tempo, average offense and very good defense.
Based on preseason talking heads one would expect the overall number fine, but with better O, worse D and significant higher tempo.
Personally…..our metrics always seem pretty close to the prevoius year despite preseason expectations and coachspeak. If i had to guess…..the talk of an uptempo Rutgers doesnt materiallize, the demise of our D doesnt happen and our offense remains average.
I dont know how the saying goes….you cant take the something out of something. Pike is Pike. We will defend and everything else will adjust to us defending.
Purdue number 1 is kind of funny. More or less the same slow team as last year with Edey in the middle. Will once again have a strong B1G season and flame out vs. and athletic, quick team in the tournament.
My point is/was....the "experts" consensus would be
OFFENSE-----BETTER
DEFENSE-----WORSE
TEMPO----FASTER
kenpom says
OFFENSE---SAME
DEFENSE--SAME
TEMPO---same
Everytime I think our defense will take a hit it doesn't. You would think it is almost a given our defense will be worse. I'll wait and see.
KENPOM isn't trying to predict who will win it all. Purdue could very well get the 1 seed again and then proceed to get bounced by the 8-9 seed. I'll go out on a limb and not having a 16 beat a 1 this year.
Perhaps they look at how a team played last year and weight late season performance more. If you look at both teams since February 1 it is obvious.
I get that, but Nebraska has done precisely the same end-of-season performance for three years. The following season, they started the year as the team we thought they were all along. Kenpom can't always factor certain things in.
Ken Pom and Torvik are very similar with slight differences.
Purdue #1, #1
Mich St TR #8, KP #13
Illinois KP #19, TR #29
Wisconsin KP #20, TR #31
Maryland KP #22, TR #32
Ohio St KP #35, TR #42
NW KP #40, TR #36
Michigan KP #44, TR #62
Indiana KP #49, TR #33
Iowa KP #50, TR #46
Nebraska KP #58, TR #47
Rutgers KP #59, TR #56
Nebraska did pick up 4 transfers, Ulis from Iowa, 2 Experienced Bigs from Bradley and New Mexico, 6'8 240 & 6'9 240, and a wing from Charlotte. They have 7 seniors and a junior on their roster. Nebraska should be highly rated in preseason, just a matter of developing chemistry which isn't Hoiberg's forte.
If you go by TRank predictions,
Hyatt 13.1pts, Cliff 14.3pts, Mag 10.4pts, Derek 9.3pts
Noah 7.3pts, Gavin 6.0pts, AustinW 4.1pts, Ogbole 2.7pts
Woolf 2.0pts, JMike 0.7pts
That is how they are estimating us being #59 and #56. Make your own judgements on who will average more points and/or less points to where we should really be.
Purdue #1, #1
Mich St TR #8, KP #13
Illinois KP #19, TR #29
Wisconsin KP #20, TR #31
Maryland KP #22, TR #32
Ohio St KP #35, TR #42
NW KP #40, TR #36
Michigan KP #44, TR #62
Indiana KP #49, TR #33
Iowa KP #50, TR #46
Nebraska KP #58, TR #47
Rutgers KP #59, TR #56
Nebraska did pick up 4 transfers, Ulis from Iowa, 2 Experienced Bigs from Bradley and New Mexico, 6'8 240 & 6'9 240, and a wing from Charlotte. They have 7 seniors and a junior on their roster. Nebraska should be highly rated in preseason, just a matter of developing chemistry which isn't Hoiberg's forte.
If you go by TRank predictions,
Hyatt 13.1pts, Cliff 14.3pts, Mag 10.4pts, Derek 9.3pts
Noah 7.3pts, Gavin 6.0pts, AustinW 4.1pts, Ogbole 2.7pts
Woolf 2.0pts, JMike 0.7pts
That is how they are estimating us being #59 and #56. Make your own judgements on who will average more points and/or less points to where we should really be.
I wonder if they use computers for everything or there is some non computer predictive value.
Do they know how Mag is doing with injury recovery?
Are they making guesses about GG defense?
Do they know how Mag is doing with injury recovery?
Are they making guesses about GG defense?
Sorry, but Nebraska will be the same song, different verse…talented roster blah blah….then they suffer from lack of chemistry….they’ll get hot for a few games and then wilt.
I looked deeper at BART and I can't fathom how they would be remotely close on how we arrive at #56
offensive efficiency 104th
defensive efficency 10th
tempo 292nd
Hyatt scores 13.1 PPG
Griffith scores 6.0 in 22 MPG
Simpson 9.3 PPG
Fernandes 7.3 PPG
People looking for a Chol breakout......he is off the radar
offensive efficiency 104th
defensive efficency 10th
tempo 292nd
Hyatt scores 13.1 PPG
Griffith scores 6.0 in 22 MPG
Simpson 9.3 PPG
Fernandes 7.3 PPG
People looking for a Chol breakout......he is off the radar
There's a 0% chance we don't play at a faster tempo. The question is how much faster
As Milo said, even if the coaching doesn't change at all, the change in players would naturally lead to a higher tempo
Any team that loses a 6'7 slow PG is going to play faster by default
As Milo said, even if the coaching doesn't change at all, the change in players would naturally lead to a higher tempo
Any team that loses a 6'7 slow PG is going to play faster by default
Griffiths 6 ppg is a non serious projection
It’s definitely fair for us to not be looked at as some amazing team right now. We lost three starters and are replacing it with a solid A10 guard who’s small, a freshman and hoping Derek Simpson isn’t woefully inefficient and breaks out. Not the most impressive team on paper, but the faith is with better depth and Pike working with the newfound athleticism on the roster, we can surprise teams. It’s good that we still have Cliff, the most important defensive position in modern basketball is the center and he is a great defender. I’m excited to see this team play.
19 PPG from a combination from Hyatt and Griffith makes sense. The allocation of those 19 points is where the arguements come in.
Separate question...
BART has us 292nd with 69.4 possessions per game.
Last year we were 65.8 possessions per game ranked 252nd
Has there been any rule changes that would increase tempo for everyone?
Answer...nothing that impacts tempo
www.aseaofblue.com
BART has us 292nd with 69.4 possessions per game.
Last year we were 65.8 possessions per game ranked 252nd
Has there been any rule changes that would increase tempo for everyone?
Answer...nothing that impacts tempo
NCAA approves several rules changes for the upcoming college basketball season
The block/charge call is finally being tweaked!
www.aseaofblue.com
If we don't go OVER either
1. We don't play uptempo at all
2. We are a complete disaster and win 12 games
Nothing in between.
1. We don't play uptempo at all
2. We are a complete disaster and win 12 games
Nothing in between.
I expect the offensive stats to really be padded early against the OOC cupcakes. Too much offensive talent and a deeper bench
Everyone will be loving the new offensive firepower, but we will need to see what happens in B1G play to see how legit the early season stats are
Everyone will be loving the new offensive firepower, but we will need to see what happens in B1G play to see how legit the early season stats are
Those stats are inflated because of easy out of conference games.During B1G Ten games the team had great difficulty scoring 65 points which resulted in Rutgers being a bubble NCAA team in most of those seasons.
If you think our tempo will be faster and we get 2-3 more possessions there is a problem if we dont score 70. We were bad offensively last year and almost hit 70 playing slow..
I think we play only slightly faster and are a tad better offensively. Think 72-73.
I think we play only slightly faster and are a tad better offensively. Think 72-73.
That like being the 6th skinniest person in a Crackel Barrell. You are still obese.
Still surprising we were 6th. Makes me even more bullish on the team next season. If the rest of the B1G wants to stay in the past and Rutgers shifts to the modern game with more talent and better athletes, we are going to be a B1G powerhouse for years to come
I really don’t think there is any value at looking what computer models are saying until you are 7 or 8 games the season.
My personal view is this year has a very wide range of potential outcomes based on lots of roster turnover, with many of the players returning from severe injuries.
I am not particularly worried about our defense, Pike will have them playing hard. The statistics may look a little different because I expect we will be playing faster (more on that below), but we will still make life difficult for most teams.
My expectation that we will play much faster pretty much hinges on one player, Noah Fernandes. We had a terrible time bringing the ball up last year, and we finally have a natural ballhander running the point. Not only is he faster, but also a superior ball handler, so other teams will be much less likely to press or try to double in the backcourt. We should have fewer backcourt turnovers and fewer shot clock violations, which will contribute to more shots for us, and if we are more efficient this year, a potentially sizable jump in points per game. However, Fernandes is small and injury prone. If he goes down, all bets are off.
My personal view is this year has a very wide range of potential outcomes based on lots of roster turnover, with many of the players returning from severe injuries.
I am not particularly worried about our defense, Pike will have them playing hard. The statistics may look a little different because I expect we will be playing faster (more on that below), but we will still make life difficult for most teams.
My expectation that we will play much faster pretty much hinges on one player, Noah Fernandes. We had a terrible time bringing the ball up last year, and we finally have a natural ballhander running the point. Not only is he faster, but also a superior ball handler, so other teams will be much less likely to press or try to double in the backcourt. We should have fewer backcourt turnovers and fewer shot clock violations, which will contribute to more shots for us, and if we are more efficient this year, a potentially sizable jump in points per game. However, Fernandes is small and injury prone. If he goes down, all bets are off.
Considering the number of transfers and incoming freshmen, and changes in team chemistry, precise predictions like this are relatively absurd.
The B1G has been fairly consistently ranked No. 2 by Kenpom. This season the B1G is ranked No. 3 in Kenpom's initial ranking.
I guess the bottom of the SEC has improved.
I think only Purdue and Mich St can make a deep run at a natty this year out of the B1G.
#1 has not been kind to Purdue - whether it's us taking them out two yrs in a row or losing to a 16. My take on them last year was that two great freshman they have ran out of gas since they were relied on from day one. They should be better conditioned this year so let's see if it makes a difference.
#1 has not been kind to Purdue - whether it's us taking them out two yrs in a row or losing to a 16. My take on them last year was that two great freshman they have ran out of gas since they were relied on from day one. They should be better conditioned this year so let's see if it makes a difference.
With 3's alone
Having been at the season ticket holder practice and Joe Boylan event and watching live , it is absolutely certain that our pace will be more uptempo and we will take more 3 pointers in transition than ever before , and we have more guys that can hit the 3 than ever before , and then we have Gavin.
The coach for the last 20 minutes of the almost 2 hour practice put 12 seconds on the shot clock and a shot had to get up in 12 or it was a turnover. They went hard, full court , up and down. Sloppy at times but damn they made a lot of shots in transition , as well as immediate ball movement and let it go to first guy open.
I cannot see how we do not score over 70 a game , unless all the guys , Noah, Gavin , Derek, Andre, Antonio , both Williams transfers , Jamichael , Cliff and Wolf and Oscar , all shoot terribly . Highly unlikely they will all shoot worse than last year . Very bullish on the offensive improvement we will see.
Watching Derek go against Jamichael full court for 20 minutes was an absolute joy. You all going be real happy.
Didnt Pike run an up-tempo offense at Stonybrook? I thought his hallmark there was fast pace, no defense.
Here Pike had recruiting challenges relative to his conference peers. He could get athletes, but not scores. So he coached to what he had. Now he has scorers. My bet is that we see significantly worse defense, and significantly better faster offense. So I don’t think the preseason talk is just hype. I assume both our tempo and D efficiency stats moving toward the average. how good the team will be will depend on whether or not the defense regresses less than the offense improves.
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