BACATOLOGY: 2/20 NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS...UPDATE RUTGERS NOW A 9 SEED AS OF 2/24

[goru7]

As I said, these people have favorites and agendas that impact their ability to be impartial.

Creighton is getting the benefit of the doubt for their losses came when their big guy was out and maybe one other guy ( lost 6 in a row ) but he is back and their record with him is very good plus they can hit 3’s which make them dangerous to beat a higher ranked team.
Rutgers has lost MAG and he is not coming back and we have struggled offensively since his absence and our elite defense has disappeared . We are not getting the benefit of the doubt for the early Temple loss without Paul and Caleb and Miami without Paul because of the struggles post MAG injury.

 

[kcg88]

I can not disagree more. Major implications. I think we got so hosed last. We got the double bye last because we had a great season. We were 4th place in the B1G. They penalized us because we then lost to Iowa in our first game. An Iowa team that won the B1G tourney! Our reward….put Rutgers in the play in game. Conference tournament had a ridiculous impact on our seeding.

Eh, I loved getting the double bye last year because it ensured we wouldn't take a bad loss. If we'd gotten the 5 seed the matchup with Northwestern would've been an absolute MUST win. And yes perhaps if we win that we're safe from Dayton, but playing Iowa meant we were safely in the tournament period.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Creighton is getting the benefit of the doubt for their losses came when their big guy was out and maybe one other guy ( lost 6 in a row ) but he is back and their record with him is very good plus they can hit 3’s which make them dangerous to beat a higher ranked team.
Rutgers has lost MAG and he is not coming back and we have struggled offensively since his absence and our elite defense has disappeared . We are not getting the benefit of the doubt for the early Temple loss without Paul and Caleb and Miami without Paul because of the struggles post MAG injury.

I don’t care if they are more talented than us. Some would say OSU had more talent too with Key. Should they get the benefit of the doubt and get in the field?

Seeding is based on your resume and there
is zero reason the committee should give Creighton an injury benefit of the doubt for early losses if we’re not getting that for missing 2 of our core guys for early season losses. Which weare not. It makes no sense. Your comparative Mag logic doesn’t fly. Suddenly we’ve won 2 of our last 3 including 2 road games against contenders. Without Mag. Meanwhile at full strength Creighton lost 3 of their last 4. They are also getting the benefit of 2 wins against a SJU team that’s worse than they were earlier in the season due to season ending injuries.

 

[kcg88]

NC State should feel concerned that their resume is virtually identical to Wake Forest's from last year.

Two things in their favor:

1. They just need to win a game in the ACC tournament (or against Duke in their finale tomorrow). Wake Forest very well could've been in if not for the Q3 loss to Boston College.
2. The bubble might be weaker and they might just make it anyway.

 

[kcg88]

NC State should feel concerned that their resume is virtually identical to Wake Forest's from last year.

Two things in their favor:

1. They just need to win a game in the ACC tournament (or against Duke in their finale tomorrow). Wake Forest very well could've been in if not for the Q3 loss to Boston College.
2. The bubble might be weaker and they might just make it anyway.

I cribbed this from the excellent bubble watch posted by Bauer (#3 rated Bracketologist according to BracketMatrix)

Bauer’s Bubble Watch: 2/27/23

If this past weekend’s slate of complete and utter madness doesn’t convince you that college basketball is the greatest sport on earth, then there’s no saving you. Saturday alone …

bauertology.com

 

[hinson32]

Palm's update still has Rutgers as an 11 seed. I know it's been beaten to death but what is this dude's deal? His justification for being low on us before was lack of road wins -- this time we have four road Q1 wins!

Every single year for the past four, he has severely underseeded us or predicted we wouldn't make it. He is also one of the lowest in terms of accuracy.

 

[G- RUnit]

Eh, I loved getting the double bye last year because it ensured we wouldn't take a bad loss. If we'd gotten the 5 seed the matchup with Northwestern would've been an absolute MUST win. And yes perhaps if we win that we're safe from Dayton, but playing Iowa meant we were safely in the tournament period.

I loved getting the double bye too. But can not deny we were penalized significantly in seeding because of a tourney loss. We loss to the Conference Champion. 4th place team in the B1G who losses to the Conference Champion shouldn’t be in the play in game. Tourney loss unfairly and ridiculously hurt our seeding.

 

[Skull83]

...and our elite defense has disappeared..

We just held three straight B1G opponents under 60 points, two of them on the road, and the Penn State coach was singing the praises of our elite D last night, but sure, our defense has disappeared 🤣

 

[kcg88]

I loved getting the double bye too. But can not deny we were penalized significantly in seeding because of a tourney loss. We loss to the Conference Champion. 4th place team in the B1G who losses to the Conference Champion shouldn’t be in the play in game. Tourney loss unfairly and ridiculously hurt our seeding.

They should if they also have losses to Lafayette, UMass, Minnesota, and DePaul and no non-conference wins of note. We were not screwed with our seeding last year.

 

[bac2therac]

I can not disagree more. Major implications. I think we got so hosed last. We got the double bye last because we had a great season. We were 4th place in the B1G. They penalized us because we then lost to Iowa in our first game. An Iowa team that won the B1G tourney! Our reward….put Rutgers in the play in game. Conference tournament had a ridiculous impact on our seeding.

we were penalized because our net sucked and we had 3 bad losses

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

NC State should feel concerned that their resume is virtually identical to Wake Forest's from last year.

Two things in their favor:

1. They just need to win a game in the ACC tournament (or against Duke in their finale tomorrow). Wake Forest very well could've been in if not for the Q3 loss to Boston College.
2. The bubble might be weaker and they might just make it anyway.

Objectively speaking, the bubble is particularly weaker this year in the department of high volume win teams. I think that’s where the biggest competition lies. The committee favored 9 loss teams like SF over Wake. Really don’t have those types of teams this year. NC State’s resume is better than the MWC contender resumes so long as the loss count remains within a game or so. 7 vs 8 right now.

 

[bac2therac]

I don’t agree with his seeding of Rutgers, but he at least seems pretty consistent in his bracket of favoring teams with lower loss counts even if they have less quality wins.

The one I really can’t figure out is Creighton. I think Palm’s 8 is probably even too high for them but Lunardi’s 5 seed seems ridiculous to me. They have the same total number of losses as us. The same home loss to Nebraska. Their neutral loss to BYU is pretty comparable to our loss to Temple. I get we have that extra home loss to Seton Hall but the win @ Purdue is much better than anything they have. @ NW and Indiana are similar to UConn and Xavier (both home). Michigan State (Garden) and Maryland are better than Providence and Arkansas (neutral). @ Wisconsin and @ PSU are both better than @ SHU and TT (neutral). What am I missing?

sos non conference and overall 17/21 plus their overall net

 

[bac2therac]

Objectively speaking, the bubble is particularly weaker this year in the department of high volume win teams. I think that’s where the biggest competition lies. The committee favored 9 loss teams like SF over Wake. Really don’t have those types of teams this year. NC State’s resume is better than the MWC contender resumes so long as the loss count remains within a game or so. 7 vs 8 right now.

nc states resume is garbage in reality

 

[G- RUnit]

I cribbed this from the excellent bubble watch posted by Bauer (#3 rated Bracketologist according to BracketMatrix)

Bauer’s Bubble Watch: 2/27/23

If this past weekend’s slate of complete and utter madness doesn’t convince you that college basketball is the greatest sport on earth, then there’s no saving you. Saturday alone …

bauertology.com

Love the correct commentary that the Bubble is quite strong. Can you imagine a UNC v Michigan play in game? Or a Rose Bowl play in game? ASU v Michigan?

 

[bac2therac]

the conference tourneys are not moving the needle all that much. Yes for teams right on bubble needing a win like Indiana last year.

remember A&M didnt make it despite making sec finals. Va Tech was not going to make it if they lost into acc tourney finals

 

[cubuffsdoug]

Creighton is getting the benefit of the doubt for their losses came when their big guy was out and maybe one other guy ( lost 6 in a row ) but he is back and their record with him is very good plus they can hit 3’s which make them dangerous to beat a higher ranked team.
Rutgers has lost MAG and he is not coming back and we have struggled offensively since his absence and our elite defense has disappeared . We are not getting the benefit of the doubt for the early Temple loss without Paul and Caleb and Miami without Paul because of the struggles post MAG injury.

The thing I can't get over is why that 6 game losing streak, regardless of personnel, doesn't do more damage to their image? Rutgers has nothing on that level. Like I said, agenda (& perception) impact their judgment when comparing teams. Everyone has favorites, even if they don't make them public. Good thing we have Andy Katz, and he doesn't give a damn about showing his colors.

 

[bac2therac]

Love the correct commentary that the Bubble is quite strong. Can you imagine a UNC v Michigan play in game? Or a Rose Bowl play in game? ASU v Michigan?

how is strong when unc has one Q1 win and just two wins vs teams projected in

 

[kcg88]

The bubble is strong from the standpoint of you might get really talented teams in Dayton (UNC, Michigan, Arizona State, any of the Big 12 teams). It's not strong from a "wow, look at all these terrific resumes!" point of view.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

nc states resume is garbage in reality

It’s not good - but it’s still better than say Utah State’s 22-7.

Even Boise’s 22-7. Look - the A&M win may be better as a stand alone than any of NC State’s wins but does it make up for losing to South Dakota State, Santa Clara and San Jose State, Those are some tough losses there. I’m not seeing how 22-8 with wins over Miami, Duke, UNC, sweep of Wake doesn’t blow their resume out of the water with a road loss to Cuse as the only loss to a non-contender.

 

[mugrat86]

The ACC is so bad. I cannot see Rutgers getting left out over many of the competing schools from that conference. I think they get at most six teams in

 

[G- RUnit]

It’s not good - but it’s still better than say Utah State’s 22-7.

Even Boise’s 22-7. Look - the A&M win may be better as a stand alone than any of NC State’s wins but does it make up for losing to South Dakota State, Santa Clara and San Jose State, Those are some tough losses there. I’m not seeing how 22-8 with wins over Miami, Duke, UNC, sweep of Wake doesn’t blow their resume out of the water with a road loss to Cuse as the only loss to a non-contender.

The problem is if you rely on the NET which I personally believe is a farce, is that NC State is ranked 42 while SDS is ranked 15 and Boise State, Nevada and Utah State are ranked incredibly 29, 30 and 31. Right now think those MWC teams get in. It’s the ACC v PAC 12 fight which looks interesting. NC State, UNC, USC and ASU fight and watch out if New Mexico gets some conference tourney wins. Pitt is 53.

 

[MiamiWolv]

The bubble is strong from the standpoint of you might get really talented teams in Dayton (UNC, Michigan, Arizona State, any of the Big 12 teams). It's not strong from a "wow, look at all these terrific resumes!" point of view.

The bubble is never filled with great teams. Maybe the 2020 Dayton play-in was an exception since it was an unusual so you may have seen stronger teams than usual since it was an abbreviated season (hence UCLA going from the F4 to the Final 4).

 

[bac2therac]

The problem is if you rely on the NET which I personally believe is a farce, is that NC State is ranked 42 while SDS is ranked 15 and Boise State, Nevada and Utah State are ranked incredibly 29, 30 and 31. Right now think those MWC teams get in. It’s the ACC v PAC 12 fight which looks interesting. NC State, UNC, USC and ASU fight and watch out if New Mexico gets some conference tourney wins. Pitt is 53.

the entire mountain west is inflated because of Q2/3 wins against nobodies

 

[bac2therac]

It’s not good - but it’s still better than say Utah State’s 22-7.

Even Boise’s 22-7. Look - the A&M win may be better as a stand alone than any of NC State’s wins but does it make up for losing to South Dakota State, Santa Clara and San Jose State, Those are some tough losses there. I’m not seeing how 22-8 with wins over Miami, Duke, UNC, sweep of Wake doesn’t blow their resume out of the water with a road loss to Cuse as the only loss to a non-contender.

wake is not a quality win stop saying that.

NC State has two wins over schools in field Miami and Duke

Boise has Texas A&M and Nevada....slight edge to NC State but Boise played tougher ooc and yes they have 2 bad losses. Its not far of a difference though and Boise has 2 Q1 win opportunities left

 

[G- RUnit]

the entire mountain west is inflated because of Q2/3 wins against nobodies

Don’t disagree but I do think better than ACC this year top to bottom.

 

[RU23]

Any concern that we haven’t been getting ANY love in the AP poll? 42 schools got a vote and we didn’t.

 

[goru7]

I don’t care if they are more talented than us. Some would say OSU had more talent too with Key. Should they get the benefit of the doubt and get in the field?

Seeding is based on your resume and there
is zero reason the committee should give Creighton an injury benefit of the doubt for early losses if we’re not getting that for missing 2 of our core guys for early season losses. Which weare not. It makes no sense. Your comparative Mag logic doesn’t fly. Suddenly we’ve won 2 of our last 3 including 2 road games against contenders. Without Mag. Meanwhile at full strength Creighton lost 3 of their last 4. They are also getting the benefit of 2 wins against a SJU team that’s worse than they were earlier in the season due to season ending injuries.

You cannot compare losing to a ranked team or teams ranked 9-25 in the Net comparing to our wins at Wisconsin and at Penn State which were generously 76 and 56 in the Net. Their losses did not hurt them badly just like our losses at Indiana and At Illinois barely moved our NET from 19-22 . It wasn’t until we lost home to Nebraska that we dropped 7-10 spots. Listen , I think Rutgers has great wins this year , beat #1 Purdue early when they were rolling ; beat NW when people didn’t realize how good they are ; beat Indiana at home by 15 in a dominating defensive performance and wire to wire win and beat Maryland with another defensive performance and wire to wire win. Also beating Penn State 65-45 was an incredibly dominating win as well. But we also have Temple ( yes without Paul and Caleb) , we have Nebraska at home , lost 2x to Iowa , one time ok but 2x not ok , and unfortunately Seton Hall has gone in the tank into Quad 3 . So that counteracts the great wins. Plus they played a 4 game stretch in OOC where they beat Texas Tech , beat Arkansas and lost to Arizona by 2 and Texas by 4 . Unfortunately we only have Wake Forest , Seton Hall and Miami and 2 are losses , one at home. Their teams against much higher rated than the teams we played

So I am just explaining why they are viewed more highly. Plus with the media and TV guys , Seth Davis , harping on they are dangerous and can make a Sweet 16 , Elite 8 run.

 

[bac2therac]

Any concern that we haven’t been getting ANY love in the AP poll? 42 schools got a vote and we didn’t.

nope...a 18-11 team should not be getting bids. I am alarmed that the ap writers continue to be taken in by phony Providence every week

 

[fatsam98]

Handy conference tournaments schedule...ASUN tourney kicks us off tonight.

Hopefully not too hard to see after you click on it

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

sos non conference and overall 17/21 plus their overall net

wake is not a quality win stop saying that.

NC State has two wins over schools in field Miami and Duke

Boise has Texas A&M and Nevada....slight edge to NC State but Boise played tougher ooc and yes they have 2 bad losses. Its not far of a difference though and Boise has 2 Q1 win opportunities left

You say that, but Wake, UNC and even VTech are still much better than teams like San Jose State and the middle of the MWC pack. That has to be taken into account if you compare a 22-7 resume to a 22-8 one.

Also - blended SOS doesn’t always tell the whole story. Boise played A&M, St Louis, Colorado, Santa Clara, Washington St and Utah Valley. NC State played Kansas, Dayton, Vanderbilt, Butler, and Furman (similar to Utah Valley). In reality each played one real contender and one possible autobid candidate. Who cares if Boise played less bad Q4 teams?

 

[RU23]

nope...a 18-11 team should not be getting bids. I am alarmed that the ap writers continue to be taken in by phony Providence every week

More importantly who is the ahole voting for West Virginia in the top 25. They’re very literally 5-11 in conference. Yes tough conference but at a certain point….

 

[scarletnewyorker2006]

the conference tourneys are not moving the needle all that much. Yes for teams right on bubble needing a win like Indiana last year.

remember A&M didnt make it despite making sec finals. Va Tech was not going to make it if they lost into acc tourney finals

Just for kicks, where would we be seeded if we beat Minny, NW, and then won the B1G tournament?

 

[goru7]

I cribbed this from the excellent bubble watch posted by Bauer (#3 rated Bracketologist according to BracketMatrix)

Bauer’s Bubble Watch: 2/27/23

If this past weekend’s slate of complete and utter madness doesn’t convince you that college basketball is the greatest sport on earth, then there’s no saving you. Saturday alone …

bauertology.com

What a terrific level headed read. Excellent perspective and analysis Thanks for the link.

 

[goru7]

We just held three straight B1G opponents under 60 points, two of them on the road, and the Penn State coach was singing the praises of our elite D last night, but sure, our defense has disappeared 🤣

Our defense based on all the numbers is down since Mag went out. Check the numbers but when I say “elite defense” I mean with Mag at the head of the press and at the top of the 1/3/1 half court trap caused turnovers , deflections , steals , leading to fast break and transition points making us more uptempo than our struggling half court offense. In my opinion we had the best defense in the country which also helped our offense where I thought we could play and beat any team on the country. I no longer feel that way despite the team holding 3 teams under 60 points.

 

[friar10]

nope...a 18-11 team should not be getting bids. I am alarmed that the ap writers continue to be taken in by phony Providence every week


Phony ? They are 2nd place in one of the top four conferences. People were saying same thing last year. They were lucky and not deserving. Ended up in sweet 16 and gave Kansas the best game of anyone winning with five minutes left in game.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

You cannot compare losing to a ranked team or teams ranked 9-25 in the Net comparing to our wins at Wisconsin and at Penn State which were generously 76 and 56 in the Net. Their losses did not hurt them badly just like our losses at Indiana and At Illinois barely moved our NET from 19-22 . It wasn’t until we lost home to Nebraska that we dropped 7-10 spots. Listen , I think Rutgers has great wins this year , beat #1 Purdue early when they were rolling ; beat NW when people didn’t realize how good they are ; beat Indiana at home by 15 in a dominating defensive performance and wire to wire win and beat Maryland with another defensive performance and wire to wire win. Also beating Penn State 65-45 was an incredibly dominating win as well. But we also have Temple ( yes without Paul and Caleb) , we have Nebraska at home , lost 2x to Iowa , one time ok but 2x not ok , and unfortunately Seton Hall has gone in the tank into Quad 3 . So that counteracts the great wins. Plus they played a 4 game stretch in OOC where they beat Texas Tech , beat Arkansas and lost to Arizona by 2 and Texas by 4 . Unfortunately we only have Wake Forest , Seton Hall and Miami and 2 are losses , one at home. Their teams against much higher rated than the teams we played

So I am just explaining why they are viewed more highly. Plus with the media and TV guys , Seth Davis , harping on they are dangerous and can make a Sweet 16 , Elite 8 run.

I don’t think the NET numbers matter as much as your thinking they do.

But really - I try to evaluate brackets at least in part by consistency within themselves and that’s where I see Lunardi’s ranking of Creighton at 5 as crap. At the end of the day - UConn has a great NET but Lunardi only considers them a 4 seed in his own bracket. He has Xavier as a 5. Providence as a 7 and Arkansas as a 9. Those are Creighton’s only wins over his current field teams - and only Arkansas was away from home. TT is in his Next 4 out.

Meanwhile when you look at Rutgers wins - He has Purdue as a 1 seed, Indiana as a 5 seed, Northwestern as a 6 seed, Maryland as a 7 seed, Michigan State as a 7 seed and Wisconsin as an 11 seed. 3 of those were true road games. Michigan State at MSG. Penn State is in his next 4 out. So regardless of whether you can make a case that Creighton’s resume is better based on NET stuff - lunardi’s own rating of our wins vs theirs says clear as day he thinks our wins are better than theirs as of right now.

On the loss side - they have one less loss than us (3) to teams not in contention for at large in his field (Villanova, Nebraska and BYU). We have 4. Even if you weight this heavier than the win side - it still seems wildly inconsistent for him to have them as a 5 seed and us as a 9.

 

[cicero grimes]

Handy conference tournaments schedule...ASUN tourney kicks us off tonight.

Hopefully not too hard to see after you click on it

Is the Pac 12 doing itself any favors playing its Championship game at 10:30 pm eastern time? They would be better off moving the tourney up a week and being the only P5 playing a championship game that weekend and could get it in prime time on the east coast. Force ESPN to move the Summit semis to accommodate them.

 

[bac2therac]

Just for kicks, where would we be seeded if we beat Minny, NW, and then won the B1G tournament?

probably 5 or even 4 but basically not much diference there

 

[hinson32]

More importantly who is the ahole voting for West Virginia in the top 25. They’re very literally 5-11 in conference. Yes tough conference but at a certain point….

Gale Catlitt?

 

[RU-ROCS]

probably 5 or even 4 but basically not much diference there

How much does the theft at OSU hurt us? We’d be tied for 2nd in the Big 10 right now and with a winning record on the road in conference with that win.