Ok Week 2 of Bacatology. We are less than 3 weeks from Selection Sunday. Late shift, grab your salty snacks and lose yourself into bacatology. Early birds, see you in the morning and send coffee. Comments and questions are always welcome. Corrections are always helpful especially spelling. Tips are mandatory! While some things have come into focus, other things remain blurry. Going with the same top 16 seeds from the NCAA reveal with just some small movement to reflect Saturday's results.
There are 32 AQs (automatic qualifiers from each conference. * denotes projected AQ. There are 36 at large bids. I am projecting 14 at large locks leaving 22 available spots in the field. I am projecting 36 schools competing for those 22 open spots. Everyone up to the last 6 seed is locked in right now.
ONE SEEDS
TWO SEEDS
THREE SEEDS
FOUR SEEDS
FIVE SEEDS
'SIX SEEDS
(42) IOWA 17-10: No shame in losing at red hot Northwestern as the Hawkeyes finally looked mortal for once. Really strong numbers here. An impressive 7-7 in Quad 1 games and 11-8 in Q1/2 games. The overall net of 42 probably in response to a long forgotten Q4 home loss to 339 Eastern Illinois. Just 3-6 on the road, it includes a high level Q1 win at Rutgers plus add in a neutral site non conference win over Iowa State. Iowa has a sparkling 7 wins over schools projected in the field: Rutgers 2x, Iowa State, Indiana, Illinois, Maryland and Northwestern. Plus their are wins vs bubbles Michigan and Clemson too. Because the overall mark is just 17-10, going to hold off locking them in but probably one more will do it for them. Tough stretch to end the year with road games at Wisconsin/Indiana and home tilts with Michigan State and a raging Nebraska team who beat the Hawkeyes by 16 earlier this season. Need to keep winning to stay on this 6 line though.
SEVEN SEEDS
(29) RUTGERS 17-10: Reeling Rutgers desperately got a win at Wisconsin to stop the bleeding. The loss of Mawot Mag has enormously impacted the Knights so its a matter of clawing their way to the finish line to maintain their bid. As of today, lots to like on the profile so do not get caught up with recency bias following that home Q3 loss to Nebraska last week. Rutgers win at Purdue is still the best win of any school this year. The win at Northwestern is now shining bright like a diamond. That gives the Scarlet Knights two upper tier Quad 1 road wins which the committee values greatly. The win at Wisconsin was RU's third road win so they will not have to worry about that criteria anymore and it was their 6th (at least for now) vs a NCAA projected team. The 3 others not mentioned yet are Indiana, Maryland and Michigan State. 4-6 in Q1 and 8-8 Q1/2 is solid. The Wisky win counts as a Q2 but very close to turning into a Q1. RU is just 10-10 vs Q1/2/3 and generally want to be 500 or above so watch them. The other big negative is the 308 non conference sos. Yes the overall is up to 39 but Pike has to do a better job in non conference scheduling and the Knights do not have a ooc win of note and there is a loss to Temple. Knights would appear to probably need two more to feel safe and that includes the Big 10 tourney. Alot of good on the profile but do not want to get sucked down toward the bubble where all bets are off. A win on Thursday at home against bubble Michigan would go along way to securing a bid. Even though it will count as a Q2 home game at least for now, its still a home loss you do not want to have heading down the stretch vs another school fighting for a NCAA at large bid A road game at bubble Penn State follows and that will be a Quad 1 game for certain. RU absolutely does not want to drop a Q4 road game at Minnesota. They close things up Northwestern providing them with a chance of a sweep. Keep winning and they will remain on the 7 line with a shot at 6. A split of games and they maybe straddling 9/10. One win means they probably need a Big 10 tourney win or possibly two.
(27) ILLINOIS 17-9: Let me begin by saying that from the Rutgers placing on to somewhere on the 9 line, its razor thin. Trying to separate these schools is like pulling taffy. Illinois big strength is there non conference play which saw them knock off UCLA and Texas and that is about as an impressive duo of OOC wins you will find beyond the top 16 seeds. That level of play hasn't translated to Big 10 play. Sure there are wins over Rutgers and Michigan State and a sweep of Wisconsin but many of the other Big 10 schools around them have notched more quality wins in league. That is reflected in the just a 3-7 mark in Q1 yet a better 7-9 overall in Q1/2. When their worst loss is to bubble Penn State on the road, you know its a clean profile. They look on target. Key for them is to navigate the last 5 which starts with a road tilt at Minnesota, the red hot Northwestern at home, at Ohio State, Michigan and closing with a trip to Purdue. Would take quite a collapse to put themselves in trouble but need to keep an eye out regarding Terrence Shannon's status who missed the Indiana game in concussion protocol.
(24) MARYLAND 18-9: No school got a bigger feather in their cap win than the Terps did last week with that rousing signature win over Purdue. Although they suffered the predictable letdown losing at Nebraska, its still a Q2 loss and Maryland has a really clean profile. 4-7 vs Q1 and 8-9 in Q1/2 games with the sos up to 26. To go along with the Purdue win are the quality wins over Indiana and Illinois in the Big 10 and neutral site over Miami OOC. Also further down is still another win vs team barely predicted in field Wisconsin and a split with bubble Michigan. Would take unusual circumstances for them to miss out on a bid at this point. Finish is manageable with home games vs Minnesota and Northwestern and trips to Ohio St/Penn State. Likely one win away, probably 2 just for good measure.
(38) PROVIDENCE 20-7: Friars have pulled themselves right into the Big East title race, now in a 3 way tie for 2nd just a game back out of first. Friars profile is almost entirely based on 3 big wins in league.....UConn, Marquette, Creighton all at home. 4-5 in Q1 but that other win is just at fading mediocrity Seton Hall. The 2-2 mark in Q2 isn't all that hot with wins to Nova, Butler and losses to St Louis/St John's. A whopping 14 of their 20 wins come to Q3/4 schools and the ooc sos is just 253 with their best road win at awful Rhode Island. However give credit where credit is due. They still have not lost outside Q2 and in a year where the major conference schools seem to be consolidating their power, the Friars really are in no danger of missing out. However their seeding could vary greatly depending on their finish in last 4 which includes trips to UConn/Gtown with home games vs Xavier/SHU.
EIGHT SEEDS
(26) DUKE 19-8: Blue Devil profile is rather meh. However its hard to imagine the committee not somewhat biased by their name when it comes to seeding. For now let's keep Duke as an 8 but keep in mind they may get a bump and yes they say this doesnt happen but. Just 2-6 in Q1 and with none of them vs ACC schools, doesn't that say a lot about the conference which is now ranked 7th in the country. Those two wins were very good neutral site wins over Xavier and Iowa. Quad 2 is a much better 5-2 but even there only two of them are wins vs teams in field: Miami and Pitt. The UNC win does not move the needle anymore plus there is a loss in Q2 to fading Clemson. Their best road win is just Syracuse. On the positive side still no loss outside Q2 and the sos of 69 non conference is solid enough. Still there is a whopping 9 of their 19 wins coming from Q4 and 3 of them are ACC games. Four games loom of varying quality...Q4 Louisville would seem an automatic win but the Devils probably need to win just one of the last 3 at home to Va Tech, NC State and at North Carolina to make it academic.
(51) MISSOURI 19-8: Just when the Tigers leapt two steps forward on the seed line, they took two steps back with a 0-2 week vs other SEC bubbles. Perhaps bubble is not the right term but there are now 6 SEC schools jockeying for position toward the lower end of the at large pool and 7 if you count Vandy looking on the outside in. The profiles are all starting to look pretty similar at this point so the Tigers need to tread carefully as they coming back near the pack. The overall NET has slogged down to 51 and that has a lot to do with a 33 point drubbing at Auburn. Yet the Tigers own 4 Q1 wins (4-8) with that big road win at Tennessee plus one over Arkansas in league. Non conference is where they did really well with wins over Illinois and Iowa State. 4-0 in Q2 does include a win over Kentucky so that gives Mizzou 5 wins vs teams in the field. Keep in mind sos is 31 and no loss outside of Q1 although wouldnt consider Florida a good loss. Weak schedule to close with only upcoming home tussle with Mississippi State a quality win opportunity. 3 SEC dregs to follow so picking up one or two should make it academic for them.
40) MICHIGAN STATE 16-10: Sparty played with heavy hearts at Michigan after the tragic shooting on campus earlier in the week. The previous game vs Minnesota was postponed til later but it was no shame to lose at bubble Michigan. The good news is that their 6-8 mark vs Quad 1 is striking and 9-9 in Q1/2 very very good as well. Yet its still not an overwhelming profile once you dig into it. They did not get any top level Q1 wins but probably scored enough of them vs the likes of Maryland, Rutgers, and Iowa. The win over Kentucky looking better by the day. Add in Wisconsin and that is 5 wins vs the field. SOS of 5/51 really working for them. Likely did enough to not feel in danger as they long as they finish out. Not going to be easy to focus on hoops and its a tough slog going forward. They host Indiana on Tuesday in what will be an emotional game then off on the road at Iowa and Nebraska before finishing up with horrific Ohio State. Think they need to split these to feel safe because at 1-3 going into the Big 10 tourney at 17-13 is playing with fire.
(28) TEXAS A & M 20-7: Not sure any school improved their entire resume more than the Aggies did last week. A&M went from out of the field to solidly in and all the way up to the 8/9 line by scoring 2 Quad 1 wins over Arkansas and at Missouri. 5-4 in Q1 is excellent and not mentioned was a sweep of Auburn. In Q2 they are 2-1 with a win over Missouri which gives them. How hot are they? Well they know have won 14 of 16 games and sit in 2nd place in the SEC three games up on third and just a game back of Alabama. The negatives are a poor non conference performance with losses to Boise and Colorado and of course the two hideous Q4 losses to Murray State and Wofford at home! How could they? Still who you beat matters more than who you lost to. Aggies have done a lot to erase the bad. Key going forward is to navigate through a tough 4 game finish. Probably need 2 of these and they include home games vs Tennessee/Bama and road trips to the Mississippi schools. Have a shot at the regular season SEC title or still a chance to move down toward the last 4 in.
NINE SEEDS
(19) ARKANSAS 18-9: The NET really likes the Razorbacks, no make that LOVES them. At 19, they are riding highest among the suddenly bulky NCAA bound SEC schools. Yet they are just 3-6 in Q1 and 7-9 in Q1/2. Its solid for the 8/9 seed line but shows their overall NET is out of whack somewhat. Leading their resume is a neutral site win over San Diego State. a road win at Kentucky and wins over SEC foes Texas A&M/Missouri. There is a Q3 loss here at LSU and despite the win at Kentucky sits at a paltry 2-6. For them its a really tough finish. Landmine game at Georgia followed by road games at Alabama and Tennessee. It is not unreasonable that the Hogs could be teetering as they return home to face Kentucky in the season finale needing a win there to secure a bid before the SEC tourney. Not quite as safe as that 19 NET might indicate.
(50) PITTSBURGH 19-8: Although the loss at Virginia Tech counted as a Q1 loss, its not the loss at this point in the season vs a school who was just 5-10 coming into the game. Still it did nothing to take away the good stuff the Panthers have going for them. Now 4-2 in Q1. 7-6 in Q1/2, they are no longer the AQ from the ACC but that does not hurt them. They have a win over ACC top dog Virginia but also two upper level Q1 road wins over NC State and an evergreen 29 point beatdown at Northwestern. Add in a home win over Miami and Pitt has 4 wins vs schools in the field. Note a sweep over North Carolina. The ACC schedule dings the sos at 87 and the OOC at 180 is not so hot. A Q3 home loss to Clemson could be forgiven but that Q4 loss at home to horrid Florida State brings their metrics and their seeding down. Unfortunately for Pitt, their schedule gives them just one Q1 opportunity to end the year at Miami. Worse yet 3 booby traps that can only harm their profile vs dregs consisting of Ga Tech, Syracuse, at Notre Dame on tap first. Likely need 2 to remain in the field. Not much room for advancement in seeding here more so a shot to trickle down.
(35) KENTUCKY 18-9: Cats coming in hot with 2 Q1s this week including completing a season sweep over Tennessee. Clearly playing their way into the field, UK now up to 4-7 in Q1. Add in the 5-1 in Q2 and you have a really impressive 9-8 in those top 2 quads. The additional wins vs schools in the field are Mississippi State and Texas A&M. Not a big win OOC but beating bubble Michigan and Ivy AQ Yale does matter. Just one bugaboo, its a Q4 yes at home to South Carolina but its dwarfed by the good here. Those SOS marks of 24/74 are dandy. A potential dangerous close to the year though starting with a trip to Florida. Then home games vs Auburn and sneaky surging bubble Vandy before closing at Arkansas. Do not want to erase all the good they did, so finishing strong is of the essence. Likely need 2.
(36) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 21-7: Wolfpack may have the blandest resume of all the power 6 schools. The win over North Carolina certainly was needed after a dreadful loss to Syracuse. While that counts as just a Q2 loss and the Pack still have avoided any loss outside of Q2, with such a marginal resume they simply have to win as much as they can. 21-7 looks like a great mark but caution that Wake has some similar numbers last year at this time. Big worry here is that a whopping 10 of their wins are from Quad 4. 4 of them too ACC schools, so like what was said with Duke, it is speaking to how poor the ACC is beyond the top 5 or 6. The 245 OOC SOS has something to do with it too. A paltry 2-4 in Q1, none of them in the upper half and one of those wins Va Tech is on bubble life support. 5-3 in Q2 brings the Q1/2 mark up to 7-7 but looking vs wins vs field, there is just Duke and Miami. Wins vs UNC, Vandy, Wake are nice but do not move the needle. Final 3 are intriguing because home games vs Wake/Clemson and at Duke. Are they in jeopardy at all? Tough call but they better win 2 of those 3 to emphatically put them in.
TEN SEEDS
(22) FLORIDA ATLANTIC* 22-3: Owls got knocked off by Middle Tennessee State last week and probably used up their last mulligan before the CUSA tourney. Just their third loss of the season and only a Q2 loss, FAU had amassed enough good to sustain a loss like this but this is where it ends. The lack of wins vs teams in field plus the non conference SOS will not support them as a 5 loss school. Do not think they can lose in regular vs any of the 4 left AND take on a loss in the CUSA tourney. However they PROBABLY have enough overall and with the strong metrics that by winning out, they are going to secure a bid either as an at large or the CUSA AQ. 2-1 vs Q1 includes road wins at North Texas and Florida. The 3-2 in Q2 another win over North Texas. Only losses all in Q1/2 are to UAB, Ole Miss and Middle Tennessee. As an at large they would almost assuredly be placed in the first four games.
(30) AUBURN 18-9: With 6 losses in their last 8, Tigers are starting to get passed in the SEC field pecking order. A step forward with a Q2 win over in the field Missouri but a loss Saturday at now on the bubble Vandy reminds everyone that Auburn has some work to do to close this one out. Some good and bad on the profile as expected. Not so good is having no upper tier Q1 wins and a woeful 2-7 in Q1 games. On the flip side Q2 mark is 6-2 making that 8-9 Q1/2 pretty solid at this seeding. The neutral site win over Northwestern now is the highlight of their resume. Home wins over Arkansas, Texas A&M, Missouri make it 4 wins vs schools in field (5 if you add Colgate). All solid wins but this resume is screaming for a signature win. There are losses to barely in the field Memphis and USC. No loss outside Q1/2 but that loss at Georgia highlights Auburn's road issues and they do not have a road win vs a school in the field unlike all the other SEC schools in this breakdown. Auburn faces a must not slip up game vs Ole Miss but after that has 3 high risk/high reward games to close the season. Road trips to Kentucky and Alabama and home to Tennessee. Could play their win firmly in on the 8/9 line or firmly right at the Mendoza line.
(34) NEVADA 19-7: Pack blew a big lead at Utah State and a chance to really firmly put them into the field. Instead they just brought Utah State back into serious contention for a bid. There are no more opportunities to pick up a quality win down the stretch for the Wolfpack and that is never a good thing for two reasons. One they risk being passed by schools playing their way into the field and two playing mediocre to bottom level MWC schools can potential blowup their already marginal profile. It is a nice profile, it is just that it is lacking anything that says this team needs to be in the field. Nevada is pinning their hopes on two home league wins vs San Diego State and Boise State which are their only wins vs the field. There is a win over Utah State earlier but the sweep of New Mexico looks less impressive given the Lobos falling out of the field recently. They did not do much OOC losing their major tests to Kansas State and Oregon. So while the OOC SOS is okay at 120 it is dotted with schools like Sam Houston, Tulane, and Akron. Those schools along with some middle of pack wins in MWC play make up the bulk of their on paper impressive 6-2 Q2 mark which when added to the Q1 stuff gets them to 9-7...great on paper, not so great when you start digging in.......and the committee will if it comes down to it. If they sweep those last 4 they are dancing nonetheless, probably even at 3-1, its a 2-2 split where the issues could arise.
(23) BOISE STATE 20-6: Broncs narrowly avoided a slip up at home vs UNLV and have managed to move above the last 4 in line this week. Another school the NET really LOVES despite the lack of quality wins. Seems like the entire conference is being inflated a bit and you see that in many of these schools landing in Q2 and that is where schools like Boise, Nevada, San Diego State, New Mexico and Utah State make their dinner on. Boise does have a rarity for MWC schools and that is an actual quality OOC win. That win over Texas A&M is growing in stature day by day. That is their only Q1 win (1-3). A stunning 8-1 in Q2 includes a win over Nevada. Further in are wins over WAC AQ Utah Valley State and Utah State and some middling Pac 12 schools. Slotted behind Nevada because of those 2 Q3 losses, one of which South Dakota State moved up from Q4. Its a tough last 4 where they will either state their case or fall on their face. Home games vs New Mexico and MWC leader San Diego State sandwiched around a dangerous trip to San Jose State and then finishing off with a trip to a likely desperate Utah State. A split likely keeps them on the good side but getting 3 would be better. Taking only one of these puts them in a heap of trouble.
ELEVEN SEEDS
(37) OKLAHOMA STATE 16-11: No shame losing to Kansas but getting shellacked by 25 on the road at TCU raises some eyebrows about the Cowboys state of mind as they head toward a critical 4 game stretch of games. Big 12 is the best conference in the land. Every night is a either a Q1/2 home game or a Q1 home game. The overall SOS of 9 reflects that. Not many nights off and now zombie Texas Tech is coming back from the dead. Even though the Cowboys have managed to crawl to a 7-7 league mark, a closer inspection of their resume shows its lacking the needed punch. Sure a sweep over Iowa State lands in the very good category but beyond that there is just TCU. The win over WVU is diminished as the Mountaineers tumble to the last 4 in. Not much to write home about non conference with the best win being Sam Houston. The 11 losses start to become bulky especially when you consider the Q2 losses to UCF and Va Tech but especially the Q3 loss at home to Southern Illinois. 4-8 vs Q1 and 8-10 Q1/2 is good enough today but 4 games left to play will change that. A total double bubba clash tonight at WVU with major implications for both schools. Home games with Kansas State and Baylor and then facing the unknown at Texas Tech in the finale. Almost HAVE to split because 17-14 heading into the Big 12 tourney is really dicey. EDIT: Oklahoma State is being blown out at halftime at West Virginia 40-21. If this result holds, the Cowboys would flip spots with WVU and move to the last 4 in.
(43) MISSISSIPPI STATE 18-9: The metrics are getting better for the Bulldogs despite a home loss to Kentucky and a miracle comeback to force overtime and win at Ole Miss. The SEC middle itself is getting better so MSU went from just 5 Q1/2 wins last week to 7. Now 7-9 Q1/2 and 3-5 in Q1, that was a red flag that they needed to overcome to sit in the field at this time. The neutral site win over Marquette and then SEC/Big 12 challenge home win over TCU continue to highlight the resume. Then come wins at Arky and Mizzou which gives them 4 wins vs the field. By no means should they feel safe. They still are only 9-9 in Q1/2/3 which is borderline. 9 of their 18 wins come from Q4. Important to split these last 4....cannot slip up to awful South Carolina but will need at least one of at Missouri/Vandy and home to Texas A&M. Lots of jockeying with the SEC bubbles. 8 are in for now but will that hold and do not discount Vandy.
(41) MEMPHIS 20-7: Well the Tigers could not pull off a signature win at Houston. No worries there because they get another crack at the projected one seed Cougars in the season finale. Tigers have benefitted the most from bloated power conference schools falling by the wayside of late. While their resume still is looking for that feather in their cap, its starting to surprisingly become sneaky good. The win over Texas A&M now sticking out to go along with their win over Auburn. The wins vs mid level Q2 schools Vandy, Nebraska and Cincy are elevating as well. Yes 2-3 may be paltry in Q1 and that shows that AAC is way down now ranked 10th but the 5-3 mark in Q2 is solid. There is just one blemish here and that is a one point loss at home to Tulane. The SOS of 68/43 will be a plus for them and note that 3 point loss at Alabama. Certainly beating Houston will lock them in the field away from the first 4 games but its looking increasingly clear if Memphis win the other 3: at Wichita State, Cincy, at SMU, they are going to be putting on their dancing shoes.
(32) WEST VIRGINIA 15-12: Not sure any team still projected in the field had a worse week than the Mountaineers. Its one thing to lose at Baylor, its another to lose at home to the perceived weakest school in the league. Beyond the problem that WVU just gave more energy to Tech's unlikely rise onto the bubble, is the problematic record. We need to talk about 15-12. We need to talk about 9-12 in Q1/2/3. We know how good the Big 12 is this year. We have heard it ad nauseum. We also know that historically schools only 2 or 3 games above .500 most notably from the Big 12 do not get at large bids. WVU is moving into that territory where 17-15 will not cut it. They are going to have find 3 more wins somehow someway and they all might have to arrive in league play. That makes tonight's game with Oklahoma State GINORMOUS! Why? Well a trip to Kansas and then Iowa State await before the season finale to Kansas State. They are not winning at Kansas so you do the math. Looking at the positives here. Obviously it starts with the sos of 4. 5 Q1 wins but one is Texas Tech and considering that there are 11 losses as well. Still 4 big wins: Iowa State, TCU, Auburn and a big road throttling of Pitt. Yet WVU sits just 2-7 on the road. There are a bunch of bulk loss power 6 schools now lurking like Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt that are raising their profiles while playing better down the stretch. May not be in the field tomorrow morning. EDIT: WVU crushing Oklahoma State right now 40-21 at half. A win would flip them with Oklahoma State and just beyond the last 4 in.
(56) USC 19-8: Trojans have floated their way back into the field not because they did anything impressive this week, its just that is how life exists on the soft white underbelly of the bubble. Well USC did go 2-0 against absolute dreck of the Pac 12 so they did something. The question is how much sustenance can they squeeze out of home wins over UCLA and Auburn. Always a plus to have a feather in the cap almost double victory when you sit near the last 4. 3-5 vs Q1 and 8-6 Q1/2 is not as good as it seems. Washington St/Oregon show up as Q1 losses but do not get fooled. Those are not good losses and the wins vs Q2 likes of Washington schools do little to boost the profile. If their profile was clean perhaps they could be given the benefit of the doubt but there is a Q3 loss to Oregon State plus a Q4 loss to Florida Gulf Coast which has been oscillating from Q3 to Q4. Their road record is just 3-5 with the best being longshot bubble Arizona State. There is a loss to fellow last 4 in Wisconsin. A road trip to face Utah and Colorado present more danger than opportunity. A shot for a another big time win vs Arizona at home plus another game with the Sun Devils. If they do not beat Zona they had better win the other 3.
(76) WISCONSIN 15-11: Just cannot get rid of the Badgers here. Its the 2nd week of playing Whack-a-mole. No shame in losing to Rutgers but missed a prime opportunity to get needed breathing space annexing a quality win. Now its desperation mode scrambling to find at least 2 wins down the stretch. Again the non conference portion of their schedule was good to them. OOC of 72 plays a part in the overall SOS being 12. Wins at Marquette and bubble USC. In league its highlighted by a road win at Iowa and a home win over Maryland. So they checking the boxes on non conference road wins and conference road wins. The 5-7 mark in Q1 and 9-10 in Q1/2 look better on paper than in reality but there is a win at Penn State which completed the sweep plus the recent home win over Michigan. That is sneaky good that they have 3 wins vs bubble schools. The loss to fading Wake Forest is barely in Q3 and not that much of a negative. The key is avoiding the bulky loss total. As said earlier must find 2 wins in the next 4..absolutely must win at Minnesota in the season finale but before that there are home games vs Iowa and Purdue sandwiched around a trip to Michigan. Question is do they have the firepower to win one of those home games. Even with a split they also will need to gather a Big 10 tourney win.
TWELVE SEEDS
THIRTEEN SEEDS
FOURTEEN SEEDS
FIFTHTEEN SEEDS
SIXTEEN SEEDS
BUBBLE OUT
(52) CHARLESTON 25-3: Colonial play comes to an end this week and Hofstra is one game away from wrapping up the top seed in the CAA tourney. Thus by virtue of their loss to the Flying Dutchmen, the Cougars are in the at large pool. The good news for them is that the bubble collapsing around them as pushed them all the way to the Mendoza line and that was unthinkable following that Q3 loss at Drexel. The Cougars will be faves anyhow to win the tourney and take the AQ. Their path to at large is this...win their last two and make the CAA finals. That would give them an unheard of 29 wins and with a loss 29-4 on Selection Sunday is going to be hard to pass up vs a bloated amphibian from the Big 10 or SEC or a bland resume from the Pac 12. Certainly not helping their only Q1 game was a loss to bubble North Carolina. Highlight was the win over MAC AQ Kent State and another nice one over Va Tech. Note the non conference sos of 333 is there if the committee wants to latch on to their reasoning for a snub.
(65) MICHIGAN 15-12: Wolverines treaded water by losing at Wisconsin but then returning at home to annex a quality Q2 win over Michigan State. People may be surprised that UM has 4 wins vs the field. A sweep over Northwestern is really looking good now. There are two blowout wins over Maryland and Pitt. Then you add in the recent win over Sparty. There is at the win at Northwestern yet the road mark of 3-5 is a bit concerning. Note there is a split with bubble Penn State, a loss to Wisconsin with another game to come vs the Badgers and a bad 25 point loss on a neutral court to distant bubble ASU. Been saying for weeks, their most costliest loss was in Q4 to Central Michigan. It would have given them the breathing room they need right now. The overall bulky record at 15-12 has to be solved and the only way to do that will be by winning 3 of the 4 remaining games. The metrics and sos do not have the chops to enter the Big 10 tourney at 17-14 and get in at 18-15. 3-9 in Q1, 7-11 Q2 and 9-11 Q1/2/3 need more. It will be a difficult slog but if they do it, they earned it. 3 road games at Rutgers, Indiana, and Illinois with a home game to Wisconsin.
(59) PENN STATE 16-11: Lions had a big week by snaring another quality win over Illiniois which completed the season sweep and then avoiding a trap at Minnesota. The wins over the Illini added to home wins over Iowa and Indiana give the Nittany Lions 4 wins vs the field. The metrics are limping though. Just 59 overall in the NET, just 3-5 in Q1 and not good at all 6-10 in Q1/2. See too many losses like getting swept by bubble Wisconsin, loss to distant bubbles Va Tech and Clemson. That percentage has to get better and they are running out of time. Still relatively clean profile, the loss to Wisconsin is Q3 but hurts more because the Badgers are right their on the cut line with the Lions and swept them. Two red flags: just 2-7 on the road and that non conference sos of 288. Their best ooc win was just Furman. This kind of stuff is a factor. Lions face must win at Ohio State and it will get harder with home tilts vs Rutgers, a trip to Northwestern and a home finale with Maryland. Likely have to 3-1, just do not think 2-2 will cut it given the metrics.
(47) NEW MEXICO 19-7: Lobos floating back up near the cut line. After 4 straight losses, they stopped the bleeding with a win over San Jose State. Its body of work, body of work. Let's say it together. The Lobos do have 3 Quad 3 losses and a Quad 4 loss to Wyoming but no one can take their quality wins from them. Not going to find better Q1 wins around the bubble than their wins at St Mary's and at San Diego State. There is an additional Q1 win over Boise State. Further along are two sneaky good Q2 wins over AQs Oral Roberts and Iona. Put that all together and New Mexico has 5 win vs teams in the field and 4 of them are projected AQs. Is the 6-3 Q1 mark enough to overcome the Q3/4? That will depend on the next 4, specifically the next 2 which are at Boise State and home to San Diego State. They will need at least one but two could put them in a really good position especially compared to Boise/Nevada. Still they likely used up their mulligans so winning vs Fresno/at CSU will be mandatory.
(48) NORTH CAROLINA 16-11: Heels are now 1-5 of their gauntlet of Q1/2 games and they are running out of chances. Now at an embarrassing 0-8 in Quad 1 games, the Heels have lost all benefit of the doubt falling from last 4 in to beyond the last 4 out in just a week. The NET metrics are dropping across the board, overall down to just 48. That red flag road mark of 2-7 sticking out. The loss total is getting downright bulky. The reality is that UNC has just one win vs the field over NC State. One small sliver of positivity is they do have wins over bubbles Charleston and Michigan. Even adding in an okay 5-3 Q2, they are just 5-11 vs Q1/2. Two ambush road tilts remain at ND/FSU but the Heels really are facing must win situations at home vs Virginia/Duke. Get them both and they are likely to dance. Not sure a split does anything but force a very very strong ACC tourney run. Conference is rated 7th and its not going to help them out in getting in a possible 6th bid. A lot of work to do.
(33) UTAH STATE 20-7: Aggies miraculously back in play. The NET loves them and not sure one school benefits more from the inflated worth of the Mountain West then they do. Still coming in at a weak 0-4 in Q1, USU got an important win when they rallied from way back to defeat Nevada. That is their best win of the season to go along with 2 solid wins over AQs Oral Roberts and Utah Valley State. There is an additional Q2 win over New Mexico here and its hard to deny that 7-1 Q2 mark. More problematic is the Q3 loss (sliding recently from Q4) to SMU and the Q4 loss to Weber State. So you see some good things metrics wise. 10 wins in Q3 is alot...17 wins in Q1/2/3 is stuff alot of major schools do not have but then its hard to discard those two bad losses. Two road games at Wyoming/UNLV before hosting Boise State in the season finale. They would do themselves well to take all 3 and that may really position themselves well in the MWC tourney. Getting 2 of 3 puts them in play but likely need a trip to MWC finals.
(88) VANDERBILT 15-12: Have a fondest for these zombie schools resuscitating their NCAA hopes out of nowhere. Commodores are halfway through threading the needle running off 5 straight wins including 2 Q1 wins Now 4-7 in Q1, 7-10 Q1/2 they certainly fit in with the rest of the schools on the out list. So adding to the marquee win over Tennessee are wins over Auburn, Arkansas and a key non conference win over Pitt. Vandy has struggled on the road with no wins vs the field on the road. SOS of 19 so some ambition scheduling with losses to NCState, Memphis, St Mary and Sun Belt AQ Southern Miss which does count as Q3. The one loss the Commodores will regret is the Q4 loss to Grambling State. It could be the loss that keeps them out of the tourney. Still the last 4 suddenly look manageable: at LSU, Floridia and then the final 2 of at Kentucky, Mississippi State. Win out and they are legit last team in last out territory. Get 3 of 4 and they remain in play depending on how they do in the SEC tourney. A split and its likely it for them. The NET overall is a wretched 88 and it will take something significant to improve it.
(54) TEXAS TECH 15-12: While I would like to put the Red Raiders a bit higher on this list based on their quality wins. It is hard to get around that 4-12 mark in Q1/2 and 7-12 Q1/2/3. 4-9 in Q1 shows high level Q1 wins over Texas and Iowa State plus two more wins vs teams in the field over Kansas State and at West Virginia. Beyond just too many losses, what really does their profile in is the atrocious scheduling. Their non conference mark of 328 is worse than even Rutgers. 8 of their 15 wins there is no bueno. There is a small narrow path left for them because the rest of their games are all, So 3 straight Q1 wins and they just have to keep that train going. Must must must win at Oklahoma. Likely will need 2 of 3 vs TCU, at Kansas, and Okie State. Then would need a upper level Q1 win in the conference tourney to either Kan/Bay/Tex. Would seem an impossible task.
(71) SETON HALL 15-12: Pirates profile continues to dim. They can only get so much out of a win over UConn, a win at Rutgers and a neutral site win over Memphis. 3-7 in Q1 and an unhealthy looking 5-11 vs Q1/2, the Pirates might be all out just to reach the NIT. That Siena loss looming large on a profile like this. Facing must win situations in their next 3: Xavier, Nova, at Providence. Sweep and they likely move in. Simple as that but they are done if they do not do that.
(70) ARIZONA STATE 19-9: Just an ugly profile here. Speaks to the atrociousness of the bubble this season and the continued futility of the Pac 12 to present itself as a power conference. I am not fooled by 3 Q1 wins because only the neutral site win over Creighton matters and not wins vs rubbish like Oregon and Colorado. 5-5 in Q1/2 makes it 8-8 which is laughable when you look deeper. Wins over Washington State, Stanford VCU with losses to Colorado, Washington, San Fransisco. There is an a nice blowout win over Michigan but is pairing that with the Creighton win deserving off a NCAA bid. Definitely not when they also have a Q4 loss to 306 Texas Southern. Ah but do not totally shut the door on the Sun Devils. The last 3 all are Q1 opportunities...at Arizona, at UCLA, at USC. So you are saying there is still a chance.......
(81) CLEMSON 19-8: Tigers are in some freefall. In just two weeks they went from the 7 line and projected ACC AQ to not even in the last 8 out. Clemson may have hit rock bottom by losing at pitiful 308 Louisville. That is Clemson's third Q4 loss adding to the non conference embarrassments to South Carolina and Loyola. There is an additional Q3 loss to BC. 13 of their 19 wins are in Q3/4. The 3-2 Q1 and 6-5 vs Q1/2 are marks you see from a midmajor which is the ACC may actually be this year. There are 3 wins vs tourney teams: Duke, at Piit, NC State. The non conference win over Penn State is nice and they did sweep Va Tech. Those things might have moved the needle without 2 of those 4 losses but not now. Tigers will absolutely need to accrue Q1 wins at Virginia and at NC State in the last 4 while managing to beat lessers like Syracuse and Notre Dame. The lights are on but no one is home.
(63) VIRGINIA TECH 16-11: Somehow the Hokies just will not die. Despite collecting dreadful Q3/4 losses to BC and Ga Tech over the past two weeks and limping into the Pitt game at just 5-10, the Hokies somehow scored an important Q2 win over the Panthers pushing them to 7-7 in those first 2 quads. Its a perplexing profile because the conference mark of 6-10 is horrible in a mediocre. Yet wins over Duke, Virginia and Pitt and a fine OOC over Oklahoma State plus another one over bubbles Penn State and North Carolina. Those wins are good enough to make the field but how can 3 Q3 losses including getting swept by Clemson and BC be overlooked. In addition if it comes to it, they lost to Charleston. Hokies path lies with winning their next two vs Miami and at Duke and taking care of two ACC bottom feeders. Nothing less than 4-0 gets it done so they might as well go on another miracle run like they did last season in the ACC tourney.
(77) WAKE FOREST 17-10: Their hopes are really flickering at this point and there is little they can do about it. Just one Q1 opportunity left at North Carolina State with 3 dregs left. Not able to build a resume at just 1-6 in Q1 and 5-8 in Q1/2. Their quality wins are now reduced to Duke and at Wisconsin. Many of their other supposed decent wins over UNC, Clemson, Va Tech have little value now. The 2 Q3 losses just seal the deal. Only a 4-0 finish and trip to ACC finals will get them into serious consideration
(46) NORTH TEXAS 21-5: Suppose the Mean Green deserve a look because of their decent overall NET of 46 and their gaudy win total. CUSA is now up to 9th in the ratings and its not all because of Florida Alantic. 2 of the Mean Green losses are to the Owls. Just 1-3 in Q1 with the win at UAB and a 30 point loss to St Mary's adding to the FAU losses. 2-0 in Q2 with those wins being UAB and Middle Tennessee. I just do not see a case for them. 18 of 21 wins in Q3/4 without a win over FAU. They will need to go 3-0 to close the regular season and then reach the CUSA finals and take a 3rd loss to FAU. That would put them at 26-6 and they can be reassessed.
LAST FOUR BYES: MISSISSIPPI STATE, OKLAHOMA STATE, BOISE STATE, NEVADA
LAST FOUR IN: WISCONSIN, USC, WEST VIRGINA, MEMPHIS
FIRST FOUR OUT: CHARLESTON, MICHIGAN, PENN STATE, NEW MEXICO
NEXT FOUR OUT: NORTH CAROLINA, UTAH STATE, VANDERBILT, TEXAS TECH
FIRST FOUR GAMES
Memphis vs Wisconsin
West Virginia vs USC
Morehead State vs Alcorn State
Howard vs FDU
There are 32 AQs (automatic qualifiers from each conference. * denotes projected AQ. There are 36 at large bids. I am projecting 14 at large locks leaving 22 available spots in the field. I am projecting 36 schools competing for those 22 open spots. Everyone up to the last 6 seed is locked in right now.
ONE SEEDS
- ALABAMA*
- HOUSTON*
- PURDUE*
- KANSAS*
TWO SEEDS
- TEXAS
- ARIZONA
- BAYLOR
- UCLA*
THREE SEEDS
- VIRGINIA*
- KANSAS STATE
- TENNESSEE
- IOWA STATE
FOUR SEEDS
- INDIANA
- MARQUETTE*
- GONZAGA
- XAVIER
FIVE SEEDS
- CONNECTICUT
- NORTHWESTERN
- MIAMI
- SAINT MARY'S*
'SIX SEEDS
- TCU
- CREIGHTON
(42) IOWA 17-10: No shame in losing at red hot Northwestern as the Hawkeyes finally looked mortal for once. Really strong numbers here. An impressive 7-7 in Quad 1 games and 11-8 in Q1/2 games. The overall net of 42 probably in response to a long forgotten Q4 home loss to 339 Eastern Illinois. Just 3-6 on the road, it includes a high level Q1 win at Rutgers plus add in a neutral site non conference win over Iowa State. Iowa has a sparkling 7 wins over schools projected in the field: Rutgers 2x, Iowa State, Indiana, Illinois, Maryland and Northwestern. Plus their are wins vs bubbles Michigan and Clemson too. Because the overall mark is just 17-10, going to hold off locking them in but probably one more will do it for them. Tough stretch to end the year with road games at Wisconsin/Indiana and home tilts with Michigan State and a raging Nebraska team who beat the Hawkeyes by 16 earlier this season. Need to keep winning to stay on this 6 line though.
SEVEN SEEDS
(29) RUTGERS 17-10: Reeling Rutgers desperately got a win at Wisconsin to stop the bleeding. The loss of Mawot Mag has enormously impacted the Knights so its a matter of clawing their way to the finish line to maintain their bid. As of today, lots to like on the profile so do not get caught up with recency bias following that home Q3 loss to Nebraska last week. Rutgers win at Purdue is still the best win of any school this year. The win at Northwestern is now shining bright like a diamond. That gives the Scarlet Knights two upper tier Quad 1 road wins which the committee values greatly. The win at Wisconsin was RU's third road win so they will not have to worry about that criteria anymore and it was their 6th (at least for now) vs a NCAA projected team. The 3 others not mentioned yet are Indiana, Maryland and Michigan State. 4-6 in Q1 and 8-8 Q1/2 is solid. The Wisky win counts as a Q2 but very close to turning into a Q1. RU is just 10-10 vs Q1/2/3 and generally want to be 500 or above so watch them. The other big negative is the 308 non conference sos. Yes the overall is up to 39 but Pike has to do a better job in non conference scheduling and the Knights do not have a ooc win of note and there is a loss to Temple. Knights would appear to probably need two more to feel safe and that includes the Big 10 tourney. Alot of good on the profile but do not want to get sucked down toward the bubble where all bets are off. A win on Thursday at home against bubble Michigan would go along way to securing a bid. Even though it will count as a Q2 home game at least for now, its still a home loss you do not want to have heading down the stretch vs another school fighting for a NCAA at large bid A road game at bubble Penn State follows and that will be a Quad 1 game for certain. RU absolutely does not want to drop a Q4 road game at Minnesota. They close things up Northwestern providing them with a chance of a sweep. Keep winning and they will remain on the 7 line with a shot at 6. A split of games and they maybe straddling 9/10. One win means they probably need a Big 10 tourney win or possibly two.
(27) ILLINOIS 17-9: Let me begin by saying that from the Rutgers placing on to somewhere on the 9 line, its razor thin. Trying to separate these schools is like pulling taffy. Illinois big strength is there non conference play which saw them knock off UCLA and Texas and that is about as an impressive duo of OOC wins you will find beyond the top 16 seeds. That level of play hasn't translated to Big 10 play. Sure there are wins over Rutgers and Michigan State and a sweep of Wisconsin but many of the other Big 10 schools around them have notched more quality wins in league. That is reflected in the just a 3-7 mark in Q1 yet a better 7-9 overall in Q1/2. When their worst loss is to bubble Penn State on the road, you know its a clean profile. They look on target. Key for them is to navigate the last 5 which starts with a road tilt at Minnesota, the red hot Northwestern at home, at Ohio State, Michigan and closing with a trip to Purdue. Would take quite a collapse to put themselves in trouble but need to keep an eye out regarding Terrence Shannon's status who missed the Indiana game in concussion protocol.
(24) MARYLAND 18-9: No school got a bigger feather in their cap win than the Terps did last week with that rousing signature win over Purdue. Although they suffered the predictable letdown losing at Nebraska, its still a Q2 loss and Maryland has a really clean profile. 4-7 vs Q1 and 8-9 in Q1/2 games with the sos up to 26. To go along with the Purdue win are the quality wins over Indiana and Illinois in the Big 10 and neutral site over Miami OOC. Also further down is still another win vs team barely predicted in field Wisconsin and a split with bubble Michigan. Would take unusual circumstances for them to miss out on a bid at this point. Finish is manageable with home games vs Minnesota and Northwestern and trips to Ohio St/Penn State. Likely one win away, probably 2 just for good measure.
(38) PROVIDENCE 20-7: Friars have pulled themselves right into the Big East title race, now in a 3 way tie for 2nd just a game back out of first. Friars profile is almost entirely based on 3 big wins in league.....UConn, Marquette, Creighton all at home. 4-5 in Q1 but that other win is just at fading mediocrity Seton Hall. The 2-2 mark in Q2 isn't all that hot with wins to Nova, Butler and losses to St Louis/St John's. A whopping 14 of their 20 wins come to Q3/4 schools and the ooc sos is just 253 with their best road win at awful Rhode Island. However give credit where credit is due. They still have not lost outside Q2 and in a year where the major conference schools seem to be consolidating their power, the Friars really are in no danger of missing out. However their seeding could vary greatly depending on their finish in last 4 which includes trips to UConn/Gtown with home games vs Xavier/SHU.
EIGHT SEEDS
(26) DUKE 19-8: Blue Devil profile is rather meh. However its hard to imagine the committee not somewhat biased by their name when it comes to seeding. For now let's keep Duke as an 8 but keep in mind they may get a bump and yes they say this doesnt happen but. Just 2-6 in Q1 and with none of them vs ACC schools, doesn't that say a lot about the conference which is now ranked 7th in the country. Those two wins were very good neutral site wins over Xavier and Iowa. Quad 2 is a much better 5-2 but even there only two of them are wins vs teams in field: Miami and Pitt. The UNC win does not move the needle anymore plus there is a loss in Q2 to fading Clemson. Their best road win is just Syracuse. On the positive side still no loss outside Q2 and the sos of 69 non conference is solid enough. Still there is a whopping 9 of their 19 wins coming from Q4 and 3 of them are ACC games. Four games loom of varying quality...Q4 Louisville would seem an automatic win but the Devils probably need to win just one of the last 3 at home to Va Tech, NC State and at North Carolina to make it academic.
(51) MISSOURI 19-8: Just when the Tigers leapt two steps forward on the seed line, they took two steps back with a 0-2 week vs other SEC bubbles. Perhaps bubble is not the right term but there are now 6 SEC schools jockeying for position toward the lower end of the at large pool and 7 if you count Vandy looking on the outside in. The profiles are all starting to look pretty similar at this point so the Tigers need to tread carefully as they coming back near the pack. The overall NET has slogged down to 51 and that has a lot to do with a 33 point drubbing at Auburn. Yet the Tigers own 4 Q1 wins (4-8) with that big road win at Tennessee plus one over Arkansas in league. Non conference is where they did really well with wins over Illinois and Iowa State. 4-0 in Q2 does include a win over Kentucky so that gives Mizzou 5 wins vs teams in the field. Keep in mind sos is 31 and no loss outside of Q1 although wouldnt consider Florida a good loss. Weak schedule to close with only upcoming home tussle with Mississippi State a quality win opportunity. 3 SEC dregs to follow so picking up one or two should make it academic for them.
40) MICHIGAN STATE 16-10: Sparty played with heavy hearts at Michigan after the tragic shooting on campus earlier in the week. The previous game vs Minnesota was postponed til later but it was no shame to lose at bubble Michigan. The good news is that their 6-8 mark vs Quad 1 is striking and 9-9 in Q1/2 very very good as well. Yet its still not an overwhelming profile once you dig into it. They did not get any top level Q1 wins but probably scored enough of them vs the likes of Maryland, Rutgers, and Iowa. The win over Kentucky looking better by the day. Add in Wisconsin and that is 5 wins vs the field. SOS of 5/51 really working for them. Likely did enough to not feel in danger as they long as they finish out. Not going to be easy to focus on hoops and its a tough slog going forward. They host Indiana on Tuesday in what will be an emotional game then off on the road at Iowa and Nebraska before finishing up with horrific Ohio State. Think they need to split these to feel safe because at 1-3 going into the Big 10 tourney at 17-13 is playing with fire.
(28) TEXAS A & M 20-7: Not sure any school improved their entire resume more than the Aggies did last week. A&M went from out of the field to solidly in and all the way up to the 8/9 line by scoring 2 Quad 1 wins over Arkansas and at Missouri. 5-4 in Q1 is excellent and not mentioned was a sweep of Auburn. In Q2 they are 2-1 with a win over Missouri which gives them. How hot are they? Well they know have won 14 of 16 games and sit in 2nd place in the SEC three games up on third and just a game back of Alabama. The negatives are a poor non conference performance with losses to Boise and Colorado and of course the two hideous Q4 losses to Murray State and Wofford at home! How could they? Still who you beat matters more than who you lost to. Aggies have done a lot to erase the bad. Key going forward is to navigate through a tough 4 game finish. Probably need 2 of these and they include home games vs Tennessee/Bama and road trips to the Mississippi schools. Have a shot at the regular season SEC title or still a chance to move down toward the last 4 in.
NINE SEEDS
(19) ARKANSAS 18-9: The NET really likes the Razorbacks, no make that LOVES them. At 19, they are riding highest among the suddenly bulky NCAA bound SEC schools. Yet they are just 3-6 in Q1 and 7-9 in Q1/2. Its solid for the 8/9 seed line but shows their overall NET is out of whack somewhat. Leading their resume is a neutral site win over San Diego State. a road win at Kentucky and wins over SEC foes Texas A&M/Missouri. There is a Q3 loss here at LSU and despite the win at Kentucky sits at a paltry 2-6. For them its a really tough finish. Landmine game at Georgia followed by road games at Alabama and Tennessee. It is not unreasonable that the Hogs could be teetering as they return home to face Kentucky in the season finale needing a win there to secure a bid before the SEC tourney. Not quite as safe as that 19 NET might indicate.
(50) PITTSBURGH 19-8: Although the loss at Virginia Tech counted as a Q1 loss, its not the loss at this point in the season vs a school who was just 5-10 coming into the game. Still it did nothing to take away the good stuff the Panthers have going for them. Now 4-2 in Q1. 7-6 in Q1/2, they are no longer the AQ from the ACC but that does not hurt them. They have a win over ACC top dog Virginia but also two upper level Q1 road wins over NC State and an evergreen 29 point beatdown at Northwestern. Add in a home win over Miami and Pitt has 4 wins vs schools in the field. Note a sweep over North Carolina. The ACC schedule dings the sos at 87 and the OOC at 180 is not so hot. A Q3 home loss to Clemson could be forgiven but that Q4 loss at home to horrid Florida State brings their metrics and their seeding down. Unfortunately for Pitt, their schedule gives them just one Q1 opportunity to end the year at Miami. Worse yet 3 booby traps that can only harm their profile vs dregs consisting of Ga Tech, Syracuse, at Notre Dame on tap first. Likely need 2 to remain in the field. Not much room for advancement in seeding here more so a shot to trickle down.
(35) KENTUCKY 18-9: Cats coming in hot with 2 Q1s this week including completing a season sweep over Tennessee. Clearly playing their way into the field, UK now up to 4-7 in Q1. Add in the 5-1 in Q2 and you have a really impressive 9-8 in those top 2 quads. The additional wins vs schools in the field are Mississippi State and Texas A&M. Not a big win OOC but beating bubble Michigan and Ivy AQ Yale does matter. Just one bugaboo, its a Q4 yes at home to South Carolina but its dwarfed by the good here. Those SOS marks of 24/74 are dandy. A potential dangerous close to the year though starting with a trip to Florida. Then home games vs Auburn and sneaky surging bubble Vandy before closing at Arkansas. Do not want to erase all the good they did, so finishing strong is of the essence. Likely need 2.
(36) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 21-7: Wolfpack may have the blandest resume of all the power 6 schools. The win over North Carolina certainly was needed after a dreadful loss to Syracuse. While that counts as just a Q2 loss and the Pack still have avoided any loss outside of Q2, with such a marginal resume they simply have to win as much as they can. 21-7 looks like a great mark but caution that Wake has some similar numbers last year at this time. Big worry here is that a whopping 10 of their wins are from Quad 4. 4 of them too ACC schools, so like what was said with Duke, it is speaking to how poor the ACC is beyond the top 5 or 6. The 245 OOC SOS has something to do with it too. A paltry 2-4 in Q1, none of them in the upper half and one of those wins Va Tech is on bubble life support. 5-3 in Q2 brings the Q1/2 mark up to 7-7 but looking vs wins vs field, there is just Duke and Miami. Wins vs UNC, Vandy, Wake are nice but do not move the needle. Final 3 are intriguing because home games vs Wake/Clemson and at Duke. Are they in jeopardy at all? Tough call but they better win 2 of those 3 to emphatically put them in.
TEN SEEDS
(22) FLORIDA ATLANTIC* 22-3: Owls got knocked off by Middle Tennessee State last week and probably used up their last mulligan before the CUSA tourney. Just their third loss of the season and only a Q2 loss, FAU had amassed enough good to sustain a loss like this but this is where it ends. The lack of wins vs teams in field plus the non conference SOS will not support them as a 5 loss school. Do not think they can lose in regular vs any of the 4 left AND take on a loss in the CUSA tourney. However they PROBABLY have enough overall and with the strong metrics that by winning out, they are going to secure a bid either as an at large or the CUSA AQ. 2-1 vs Q1 includes road wins at North Texas and Florida. The 3-2 in Q2 another win over North Texas. Only losses all in Q1/2 are to UAB, Ole Miss and Middle Tennessee. As an at large they would almost assuredly be placed in the first four games.
(30) AUBURN 18-9: With 6 losses in their last 8, Tigers are starting to get passed in the SEC field pecking order. A step forward with a Q2 win over in the field Missouri but a loss Saturday at now on the bubble Vandy reminds everyone that Auburn has some work to do to close this one out. Some good and bad on the profile as expected. Not so good is having no upper tier Q1 wins and a woeful 2-7 in Q1 games. On the flip side Q2 mark is 6-2 making that 8-9 Q1/2 pretty solid at this seeding. The neutral site win over Northwestern now is the highlight of their resume. Home wins over Arkansas, Texas A&M, Missouri make it 4 wins vs schools in field (5 if you add Colgate). All solid wins but this resume is screaming for a signature win. There are losses to barely in the field Memphis and USC. No loss outside Q1/2 but that loss at Georgia highlights Auburn's road issues and they do not have a road win vs a school in the field unlike all the other SEC schools in this breakdown. Auburn faces a must not slip up game vs Ole Miss but after that has 3 high risk/high reward games to close the season. Road trips to Kentucky and Alabama and home to Tennessee. Could play their win firmly in on the 8/9 line or firmly right at the Mendoza line.
(34) NEVADA 19-7: Pack blew a big lead at Utah State and a chance to really firmly put them into the field. Instead they just brought Utah State back into serious contention for a bid. There are no more opportunities to pick up a quality win down the stretch for the Wolfpack and that is never a good thing for two reasons. One they risk being passed by schools playing their way into the field and two playing mediocre to bottom level MWC schools can potential blowup their already marginal profile. It is a nice profile, it is just that it is lacking anything that says this team needs to be in the field. Nevada is pinning their hopes on two home league wins vs San Diego State and Boise State which are their only wins vs the field. There is a win over Utah State earlier but the sweep of New Mexico looks less impressive given the Lobos falling out of the field recently. They did not do much OOC losing their major tests to Kansas State and Oregon. So while the OOC SOS is okay at 120 it is dotted with schools like Sam Houston, Tulane, and Akron. Those schools along with some middle of pack wins in MWC play make up the bulk of their on paper impressive 6-2 Q2 mark which when added to the Q1 stuff gets them to 9-7...great on paper, not so great when you start digging in.......and the committee will if it comes down to it. If they sweep those last 4 they are dancing nonetheless, probably even at 3-1, its a 2-2 split where the issues could arise.
(23) BOISE STATE 20-6: Broncs narrowly avoided a slip up at home vs UNLV and have managed to move above the last 4 in line this week. Another school the NET really LOVES despite the lack of quality wins. Seems like the entire conference is being inflated a bit and you see that in many of these schools landing in Q2 and that is where schools like Boise, Nevada, San Diego State, New Mexico and Utah State make their dinner on. Boise does have a rarity for MWC schools and that is an actual quality OOC win. That win over Texas A&M is growing in stature day by day. That is their only Q1 win (1-3). A stunning 8-1 in Q2 includes a win over Nevada. Further in are wins over WAC AQ Utah Valley State and Utah State and some middling Pac 12 schools. Slotted behind Nevada because of those 2 Q3 losses, one of which South Dakota State moved up from Q4. Its a tough last 4 where they will either state their case or fall on their face. Home games vs New Mexico and MWC leader San Diego State sandwiched around a dangerous trip to San Jose State and then finishing off with a trip to a likely desperate Utah State. A split likely keeps them on the good side but getting 3 would be better. Taking only one of these puts them in a heap of trouble.
ELEVEN SEEDS
(37) OKLAHOMA STATE 16-11: No shame losing to Kansas but getting shellacked by 25 on the road at TCU raises some eyebrows about the Cowboys state of mind as they head toward a critical 4 game stretch of games. Big 12 is the best conference in the land. Every night is a either a Q1/2 home game or a Q1 home game. The overall SOS of 9 reflects that. Not many nights off and now zombie Texas Tech is coming back from the dead. Even though the Cowboys have managed to crawl to a 7-7 league mark, a closer inspection of their resume shows its lacking the needed punch. Sure a sweep over Iowa State lands in the very good category but beyond that there is just TCU. The win over WVU is diminished as the Mountaineers tumble to the last 4 in. Not much to write home about non conference with the best win being Sam Houston. The 11 losses start to become bulky especially when you consider the Q2 losses to UCF and Va Tech but especially the Q3 loss at home to Southern Illinois. 4-8 vs Q1 and 8-10 Q1/2 is good enough today but 4 games left to play will change that. A total double bubba clash tonight at WVU with major implications for both schools. Home games with Kansas State and Baylor and then facing the unknown at Texas Tech in the finale. Almost HAVE to split because 17-14 heading into the Big 12 tourney is really dicey. EDIT: Oklahoma State is being blown out at halftime at West Virginia 40-21. If this result holds, the Cowboys would flip spots with WVU and move to the last 4 in.
(43) MISSISSIPPI STATE 18-9: The metrics are getting better for the Bulldogs despite a home loss to Kentucky and a miracle comeback to force overtime and win at Ole Miss. The SEC middle itself is getting better so MSU went from just 5 Q1/2 wins last week to 7. Now 7-9 Q1/2 and 3-5 in Q1, that was a red flag that they needed to overcome to sit in the field at this time. The neutral site win over Marquette and then SEC/Big 12 challenge home win over TCU continue to highlight the resume. Then come wins at Arky and Mizzou which gives them 4 wins vs the field. By no means should they feel safe. They still are only 9-9 in Q1/2/3 which is borderline. 9 of their 18 wins come from Q4. Important to split these last 4....cannot slip up to awful South Carolina but will need at least one of at Missouri/Vandy and home to Texas A&M. Lots of jockeying with the SEC bubbles. 8 are in for now but will that hold and do not discount Vandy.
(41) MEMPHIS 20-7: Well the Tigers could not pull off a signature win at Houston. No worries there because they get another crack at the projected one seed Cougars in the season finale. Tigers have benefitted the most from bloated power conference schools falling by the wayside of late. While their resume still is looking for that feather in their cap, its starting to surprisingly become sneaky good. The win over Texas A&M now sticking out to go along with their win over Auburn. The wins vs mid level Q2 schools Vandy, Nebraska and Cincy are elevating as well. Yes 2-3 may be paltry in Q1 and that shows that AAC is way down now ranked 10th but the 5-3 mark in Q2 is solid. There is just one blemish here and that is a one point loss at home to Tulane. The SOS of 68/43 will be a plus for them and note that 3 point loss at Alabama. Certainly beating Houston will lock them in the field away from the first 4 games but its looking increasingly clear if Memphis win the other 3: at Wichita State, Cincy, at SMU, they are going to be putting on their dancing shoes.
(32) WEST VIRGINIA 15-12: Not sure any team still projected in the field had a worse week than the Mountaineers. Its one thing to lose at Baylor, its another to lose at home to the perceived weakest school in the league. Beyond the problem that WVU just gave more energy to Tech's unlikely rise onto the bubble, is the problematic record. We need to talk about 15-12. We need to talk about 9-12 in Q1/2/3. We know how good the Big 12 is this year. We have heard it ad nauseum. We also know that historically schools only 2 or 3 games above .500 most notably from the Big 12 do not get at large bids. WVU is moving into that territory where 17-15 will not cut it. They are going to have find 3 more wins somehow someway and they all might have to arrive in league play. That makes tonight's game with Oklahoma State GINORMOUS! Why? Well a trip to Kansas and then Iowa State await before the season finale to Kansas State. They are not winning at Kansas so you do the math. Looking at the positives here. Obviously it starts with the sos of 4. 5 Q1 wins but one is Texas Tech and considering that there are 11 losses as well. Still 4 big wins: Iowa State, TCU, Auburn and a big road throttling of Pitt. Yet WVU sits just 2-7 on the road. There are a bunch of bulk loss power 6 schools now lurking like Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt that are raising their profiles while playing better down the stretch. May not be in the field tomorrow morning. EDIT: WVU crushing Oklahoma State right now 40-21 at half. A win would flip them with Oklahoma State and just beyond the last 4 in.
(56) USC 19-8: Trojans have floated their way back into the field not because they did anything impressive this week, its just that is how life exists on the soft white underbelly of the bubble. Well USC did go 2-0 against absolute dreck of the Pac 12 so they did something. The question is how much sustenance can they squeeze out of home wins over UCLA and Auburn. Always a plus to have a feather in the cap almost double victory when you sit near the last 4. 3-5 vs Q1 and 8-6 Q1/2 is not as good as it seems. Washington St/Oregon show up as Q1 losses but do not get fooled. Those are not good losses and the wins vs Q2 likes of Washington schools do little to boost the profile. If their profile was clean perhaps they could be given the benefit of the doubt but there is a Q3 loss to Oregon State plus a Q4 loss to Florida Gulf Coast which has been oscillating from Q3 to Q4. Their road record is just 3-5 with the best being longshot bubble Arizona State. There is a loss to fellow last 4 in Wisconsin. A road trip to face Utah and Colorado present more danger than opportunity. A shot for a another big time win vs Arizona at home plus another game with the Sun Devils. If they do not beat Zona they had better win the other 3.
(76) WISCONSIN 15-11: Just cannot get rid of the Badgers here. Its the 2nd week of playing Whack-a-mole. No shame in losing to Rutgers but missed a prime opportunity to get needed breathing space annexing a quality win. Now its desperation mode scrambling to find at least 2 wins down the stretch. Again the non conference portion of their schedule was good to them. OOC of 72 plays a part in the overall SOS being 12. Wins at Marquette and bubble USC. In league its highlighted by a road win at Iowa and a home win over Maryland. So they checking the boxes on non conference road wins and conference road wins. The 5-7 mark in Q1 and 9-10 in Q1/2 look better on paper than in reality but there is a win at Penn State which completed the sweep plus the recent home win over Michigan. That is sneaky good that they have 3 wins vs bubble schools. The loss to fading Wake Forest is barely in Q3 and not that much of a negative. The key is avoiding the bulky loss total. As said earlier must find 2 wins in the next 4..absolutely must win at Minnesota in the season finale but before that there are home games vs Iowa and Purdue sandwiched around a trip to Michigan. Question is do they have the firepower to win one of those home games. Even with a split they also will need to gather a Big 10 tourney win.
TWELVE SEEDS
- (44) ORAL ROBERTS* 21-4: Projected AQ from Summit League. If they win their last 2 regular season games and make the Summit finals, I like them as an at large at 25-5. Yes 0-4 in Q1 games but look at the losses all of them on the road: Houston, St Mary's, Utah State, New Mexico. Best win is Liberty. Key to me here is the non conference sos of 7. I think it plays a role and I think in a choice between a 18-15 power 6 school and Oral Roberts they will get the nod.
- KENT STATE*
- SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI*
- VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH*
THIRTEEN SEEDS
- DRAKE*
- UTAH VALLEY STATE*
- IONA*
- YALE*
FOURTEEN SEEDS
- UC IRVINE*
- HOFSTRA*
- COLGATE*
- EASTERN WASHINGTON*
FIFTHTEEN SEEDS
- KENNESAW STATE*
- VERMONT*
- YOUNGSTOWN STATE*
- SAMFORD*
SIXTEEN SEEDS
- TEXAS CORPUS CHRISTI*
- UNC ASHEVILLE*
- MOREHEAD STATE*
- HOWARD*
- FDU*
- ALCORN STATE*
BUBBLE OUT
(52) CHARLESTON 25-3: Colonial play comes to an end this week and Hofstra is one game away from wrapping up the top seed in the CAA tourney. Thus by virtue of their loss to the Flying Dutchmen, the Cougars are in the at large pool. The good news for them is that the bubble collapsing around them as pushed them all the way to the Mendoza line and that was unthinkable following that Q3 loss at Drexel. The Cougars will be faves anyhow to win the tourney and take the AQ. Their path to at large is this...win their last two and make the CAA finals. That would give them an unheard of 29 wins and with a loss 29-4 on Selection Sunday is going to be hard to pass up vs a bloated amphibian from the Big 10 or SEC or a bland resume from the Pac 12. Certainly not helping their only Q1 game was a loss to bubble North Carolina. Highlight was the win over MAC AQ Kent State and another nice one over Va Tech. Note the non conference sos of 333 is there if the committee wants to latch on to their reasoning for a snub.
(65) MICHIGAN 15-12: Wolverines treaded water by losing at Wisconsin but then returning at home to annex a quality Q2 win over Michigan State. People may be surprised that UM has 4 wins vs the field. A sweep over Northwestern is really looking good now. There are two blowout wins over Maryland and Pitt. Then you add in the recent win over Sparty. There is at the win at Northwestern yet the road mark of 3-5 is a bit concerning. Note there is a split with bubble Penn State, a loss to Wisconsin with another game to come vs the Badgers and a bad 25 point loss on a neutral court to distant bubble ASU. Been saying for weeks, their most costliest loss was in Q4 to Central Michigan. It would have given them the breathing room they need right now. The overall bulky record at 15-12 has to be solved and the only way to do that will be by winning 3 of the 4 remaining games. The metrics and sos do not have the chops to enter the Big 10 tourney at 17-14 and get in at 18-15. 3-9 in Q1, 7-11 Q2 and 9-11 Q1/2/3 need more. It will be a difficult slog but if they do it, they earned it. 3 road games at Rutgers, Indiana, and Illinois with a home game to Wisconsin.
(59) PENN STATE 16-11: Lions had a big week by snaring another quality win over Illiniois which completed the season sweep and then avoiding a trap at Minnesota. The wins over the Illini added to home wins over Iowa and Indiana give the Nittany Lions 4 wins vs the field. The metrics are limping though. Just 59 overall in the NET, just 3-5 in Q1 and not good at all 6-10 in Q1/2. See too many losses like getting swept by bubble Wisconsin, loss to distant bubbles Va Tech and Clemson. That percentage has to get better and they are running out of time. Still relatively clean profile, the loss to Wisconsin is Q3 but hurts more because the Badgers are right their on the cut line with the Lions and swept them. Two red flags: just 2-7 on the road and that non conference sos of 288. Their best ooc win was just Furman. This kind of stuff is a factor. Lions face must win at Ohio State and it will get harder with home tilts vs Rutgers, a trip to Northwestern and a home finale with Maryland. Likely have to 3-1, just do not think 2-2 will cut it given the metrics.
(47) NEW MEXICO 19-7: Lobos floating back up near the cut line. After 4 straight losses, they stopped the bleeding with a win over San Jose State. Its body of work, body of work. Let's say it together. The Lobos do have 3 Quad 3 losses and a Quad 4 loss to Wyoming but no one can take their quality wins from them. Not going to find better Q1 wins around the bubble than their wins at St Mary's and at San Diego State. There is an additional Q1 win over Boise State. Further along are two sneaky good Q2 wins over AQs Oral Roberts and Iona. Put that all together and New Mexico has 5 win vs teams in the field and 4 of them are projected AQs. Is the 6-3 Q1 mark enough to overcome the Q3/4? That will depend on the next 4, specifically the next 2 which are at Boise State and home to San Diego State. They will need at least one but two could put them in a really good position especially compared to Boise/Nevada. Still they likely used up their mulligans so winning vs Fresno/at CSU will be mandatory.
(48) NORTH CAROLINA 16-11: Heels are now 1-5 of their gauntlet of Q1/2 games and they are running out of chances. Now at an embarrassing 0-8 in Quad 1 games, the Heels have lost all benefit of the doubt falling from last 4 in to beyond the last 4 out in just a week. The NET metrics are dropping across the board, overall down to just 48. That red flag road mark of 2-7 sticking out. The loss total is getting downright bulky. The reality is that UNC has just one win vs the field over NC State. One small sliver of positivity is they do have wins over bubbles Charleston and Michigan. Even adding in an okay 5-3 Q2, they are just 5-11 vs Q1/2. Two ambush road tilts remain at ND/FSU but the Heels really are facing must win situations at home vs Virginia/Duke. Get them both and they are likely to dance. Not sure a split does anything but force a very very strong ACC tourney run. Conference is rated 7th and its not going to help them out in getting in a possible 6th bid. A lot of work to do.
(33) UTAH STATE 20-7: Aggies miraculously back in play. The NET loves them and not sure one school benefits more from the inflated worth of the Mountain West then they do. Still coming in at a weak 0-4 in Q1, USU got an important win when they rallied from way back to defeat Nevada. That is their best win of the season to go along with 2 solid wins over AQs Oral Roberts and Utah Valley State. There is an additional Q2 win over New Mexico here and its hard to deny that 7-1 Q2 mark. More problematic is the Q3 loss (sliding recently from Q4) to SMU and the Q4 loss to Weber State. So you see some good things metrics wise. 10 wins in Q3 is alot...17 wins in Q1/2/3 is stuff alot of major schools do not have but then its hard to discard those two bad losses. Two road games at Wyoming/UNLV before hosting Boise State in the season finale. They would do themselves well to take all 3 and that may really position themselves well in the MWC tourney. Getting 2 of 3 puts them in play but likely need a trip to MWC finals.
(88) VANDERBILT 15-12: Have a fondest for these zombie schools resuscitating their NCAA hopes out of nowhere. Commodores are halfway through threading the needle running off 5 straight wins including 2 Q1 wins Now 4-7 in Q1, 7-10 Q1/2 they certainly fit in with the rest of the schools on the out list. So adding to the marquee win over Tennessee are wins over Auburn, Arkansas and a key non conference win over Pitt. Vandy has struggled on the road with no wins vs the field on the road. SOS of 19 so some ambition scheduling with losses to NCState, Memphis, St Mary and Sun Belt AQ Southern Miss which does count as Q3. The one loss the Commodores will regret is the Q4 loss to Grambling State. It could be the loss that keeps them out of the tourney. Still the last 4 suddenly look manageable: at LSU, Floridia and then the final 2 of at Kentucky, Mississippi State. Win out and they are legit last team in last out territory. Get 3 of 4 and they remain in play depending on how they do in the SEC tourney. A split and its likely it for them. The NET overall is a wretched 88 and it will take something significant to improve it.
(54) TEXAS TECH 15-12: While I would like to put the Red Raiders a bit higher on this list based on their quality wins. It is hard to get around that 4-12 mark in Q1/2 and 7-12 Q1/2/3. 4-9 in Q1 shows high level Q1 wins over Texas and Iowa State plus two more wins vs teams in the field over Kansas State and at West Virginia. Beyond just too many losses, what really does their profile in is the atrocious scheduling. Their non conference mark of 328 is worse than even Rutgers. 8 of their 15 wins there is no bueno. There is a small narrow path left for them because the rest of their games are all, So 3 straight Q1 wins and they just have to keep that train going. Must must must win at Oklahoma. Likely will need 2 of 3 vs TCU, at Kansas, and Okie State. Then would need a upper level Q1 win in the conference tourney to either Kan/Bay/Tex. Would seem an impossible task.
(71) SETON HALL 15-12: Pirates profile continues to dim. They can only get so much out of a win over UConn, a win at Rutgers and a neutral site win over Memphis. 3-7 in Q1 and an unhealthy looking 5-11 vs Q1/2, the Pirates might be all out just to reach the NIT. That Siena loss looming large on a profile like this. Facing must win situations in their next 3: Xavier, Nova, at Providence. Sweep and they likely move in. Simple as that but they are done if they do not do that.
(70) ARIZONA STATE 19-9: Just an ugly profile here. Speaks to the atrociousness of the bubble this season and the continued futility of the Pac 12 to present itself as a power conference. I am not fooled by 3 Q1 wins because only the neutral site win over Creighton matters and not wins vs rubbish like Oregon and Colorado. 5-5 in Q1/2 makes it 8-8 which is laughable when you look deeper. Wins over Washington State, Stanford VCU with losses to Colorado, Washington, San Fransisco. There is an a nice blowout win over Michigan but is pairing that with the Creighton win deserving off a NCAA bid. Definitely not when they also have a Q4 loss to 306 Texas Southern. Ah but do not totally shut the door on the Sun Devils. The last 3 all are Q1 opportunities...at Arizona, at UCLA, at USC. So you are saying there is still a chance.......
(81) CLEMSON 19-8: Tigers are in some freefall. In just two weeks they went from the 7 line and projected ACC AQ to not even in the last 8 out. Clemson may have hit rock bottom by losing at pitiful 308 Louisville. That is Clemson's third Q4 loss adding to the non conference embarrassments to South Carolina and Loyola. There is an additional Q3 loss to BC. 13 of their 19 wins are in Q3/4. The 3-2 Q1 and 6-5 vs Q1/2 are marks you see from a midmajor which is the ACC may actually be this year. There are 3 wins vs tourney teams: Duke, at Piit, NC State. The non conference win over Penn State is nice and they did sweep Va Tech. Those things might have moved the needle without 2 of those 4 losses but not now. Tigers will absolutely need to accrue Q1 wins at Virginia and at NC State in the last 4 while managing to beat lessers like Syracuse and Notre Dame. The lights are on but no one is home.
(63) VIRGINIA TECH 16-11: Somehow the Hokies just will not die. Despite collecting dreadful Q3/4 losses to BC and Ga Tech over the past two weeks and limping into the Pitt game at just 5-10, the Hokies somehow scored an important Q2 win over the Panthers pushing them to 7-7 in those first 2 quads. Its a perplexing profile because the conference mark of 6-10 is horrible in a mediocre. Yet wins over Duke, Virginia and Pitt and a fine OOC over Oklahoma State plus another one over bubbles Penn State and North Carolina. Those wins are good enough to make the field but how can 3 Q3 losses including getting swept by Clemson and BC be overlooked. In addition if it comes to it, they lost to Charleston. Hokies path lies with winning their next two vs Miami and at Duke and taking care of two ACC bottom feeders. Nothing less than 4-0 gets it done so they might as well go on another miracle run like they did last season in the ACC tourney.
(77) WAKE FOREST 17-10: Their hopes are really flickering at this point and there is little they can do about it. Just one Q1 opportunity left at North Carolina State with 3 dregs left. Not able to build a resume at just 1-6 in Q1 and 5-8 in Q1/2. Their quality wins are now reduced to Duke and at Wisconsin. Many of their other supposed decent wins over UNC, Clemson, Va Tech have little value now. The 2 Q3 losses just seal the deal. Only a 4-0 finish and trip to ACC finals will get them into serious consideration
(46) NORTH TEXAS 21-5: Suppose the Mean Green deserve a look because of their decent overall NET of 46 and their gaudy win total. CUSA is now up to 9th in the ratings and its not all because of Florida Alantic. 2 of the Mean Green losses are to the Owls. Just 1-3 in Q1 with the win at UAB and a 30 point loss to St Mary's adding to the FAU losses. 2-0 in Q2 with those wins being UAB and Middle Tennessee. I just do not see a case for them. 18 of 21 wins in Q3/4 without a win over FAU. They will need to go 3-0 to close the regular season and then reach the CUSA finals and take a 3rd loss to FAU. That would put them at 26-6 and they can be reassessed.
LAST FOUR BYES: MISSISSIPPI STATE, OKLAHOMA STATE, BOISE STATE, NEVADA
LAST FOUR IN: WISCONSIN, USC, WEST VIRGINA, MEMPHIS
FIRST FOUR OUT: CHARLESTON, MICHIGAN, PENN STATE, NEW MEXICO
NEXT FOUR OUT: NORTH CAROLINA, UTAH STATE, VANDERBILT, TEXAS TECH
FIRST FOUR GAMES
Memphis vs Wisconsin
West Virginia vs USC
Morehead State vs Alcorn State
Howard vs FDU
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