Rutgers had a win at Purdue and was left out last year with a NET 26 spots higher than SHU and more wins vs the field than SHU
BACATOLOGY 3/11: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS
- Thread starter bac2therac
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sju is 10-12 vs Q1/2, shu is 9-11
sju is 13-13 vs Q1/2/3, shu is 11-12 vs Q1/2/3
very small difference but thats how tight it is but also better metrics...sor is better than for shu 36 to sju 46
sju is 13-13 vs Q1/2/3, shu is 11-12 vs Q1/2/3
very small difference but thats how tight it is but also better metrics...sor is better than for shu 36 to sju 46
Plus one totally off resume and intangible point, is the committee likely to stick it to Tom Izzo? I doubt it, if anything they contort themselves to try and bend over backwards to ensure MSU is in. It’s not a measurable, it’s not on paper, it’s not a metric, it’s not part of this year’s resume, but it’s one hell of a human bias that easily pops into the heads of the committee. It’s like the evaluation is part MSU/part Izzo……I guarantee they don’t stick it to Izzo. Some of the other coaches and teams? Sure, why not. Plus, I think they’re slightly ahead of other bubble teams based upon resume and metrics, so I say there is zero chance Izzo is getting screwed over.
I agree SJU has looked the part more over the last couple weeks, but they also had a lot more to play for in that BET game. They knew they were playing for their lives while at the time SHU actually felt pretty safe. The desperation difference in that game was clear to anyone watching.
The part I have a problem with is if predictive metrics come into play. That would be like if the NBA selected the playoff field based on expected win % instead of actual win %.
I get it helps when comparing teams across conferences that are playing vastly different schedules, but these 2 teams played the same schedule over the past 3 months and one was definitively better than other other.
Face it, it's not a truly objective pick of the best teams competing and it's not even a beauty contest . It's become a tv reality show for those that gamble or are easily interested in the latest fad promoted by the talking heads.
Beat them 2 out of 3 including a win at St John's. IMO that's a big factor along with the UConn win. It becomes even more so with UConn being the tourneys # 1 seed.
There are more bid stealers this year than recent history, though, no? Those are additional teams that need to be fit into the seeding somewhere, and increased pressure at the bottom of the at large pool.
Going to be really tricky getting the seeding right from 9-12 with predictions.
Last year we Beat Penn State twice and had a good resume and PSU got in. Does not seem to matter head to head. Again they lost to RU, Iowa and USC.
head to head isnt going to be a factor...see A&M vs Notre Dame 2 years back
if they want St Johns the eye test justifies it, if they made the field before the tourneys then shu is going but 3 bid stealers may have f'd that up
no one should feel safe, who said that...they were among the last 4-5 teams in, if thats how they felt shaheen should be fired
looks like the bid stealers will go as 11s Oregon/NC State and consensus seems to be putting the play ins as 10s this year.
no...for one there isnt any coach or program favored...but there are biases that seep in and the committee is only human and are influenced. They have said they glance at the matrix just to see if they are doing something wildly offbase which IMO they should not be doing
i will be surprised if Michigan State misses though I could see a scenario...again its like a 95% rutgers in scenario. I think that 9-14 mark is questionable as is their sor and they seem to be missing a win that would lock them in
to me the Oklahoma 4-12 mark vs Q1 is concerning and that they only have 2 wins vs field...their sor is strong so a tough call....i want to make a bold call here but not sure if I will end up doing it.
But that then bumps teams previously considered as 11s, too. Things have to shuffle around late in the process more than usual.
Just wondering.
Mostly the concept of "bid stealers" of NC St and Oregon.
They are not smaller leagues and had 30 games to build a resume.
But then 4 games in March outweighs a other teams better 30 game resume.
Also, smaller leagues deserving representation is a matter of scale.
Does every league deserve representation?
CFB certainly doesn't think so.
i.e., the committee can cover their asses anyway that it seems fit at the time and leaves all excuses and justifications available
Temple can't steal a bid today. Neither team in the A10 final gets in with a loss.
because its been done this way for 30 plus years
college football is a poor comparison since smaller conferences schools have had decent success against majors
First of all Temple isn't in the A10. But both the A10 and AAC are bid stealing leagues due to Dayton and FAU, respectively, being at-larges.
crunching things down...i have seeded everyone through the 9 line
12 schools competing for 6 bids right now
Michigan State
Texas A&M
Colorado
Colorado State
Florida Atlantic
Oklahoma
Indiana State
Pittsburgh
Seton Hall
St Johns
Providence
Virginia
12 schools competing for 6 bids right now
Michigan State
Texas A&M
Colorado
Colorado State
Florida Atlantic
Oklahoma
Indiana State
Pittsburgh
Seton Hall
St Johns
Providence
Virginia
not if you factored in richmond and usf winning those leagues previously
with this years schedule? They would have to beat Mississippi State and either Wake/Princeton and likely finished 11-9 in league so at least 21-10 or if they didnt beat Wake go 12-8 in league
for this year 21-10 heading into conference tourney play
this isnt kid stuff, you have to earn your way in because the Big 10 is an overrated conference with alot of bloat and its going to get worse from here
I am down to 4 schools for one last bid...this will be the tough part for me
Virginia
Seton Hall
Oklahoma
Saint John's
they all would have been in the field if Oregon/NC State didnt win and FAU won the AAC tourney today
in sec final, apparently some Florida player badly injured taken off on stretcher..did anyone see it
Michigan State - In
Texas A&M - Out
Colorado - In
Colorado State - In
Florida Atlantic - In
Oklahoma - Out
Indiana State - In
Pittsburgh - Out
Seton Hall - Out
St Johns - In
Providence - Out
Virginia - Out
My guess for the 6 would be mich st., ATM, Colorado, Colorado St. One of st John's/ seton hall and one of Pitt/ va. I could see Colorado getting screwed to get both acc teams in.
Remember a team can be 6th team in but seeded so they are in the first four games or the 2nd to last team selected yet seeded above those first four games
I honestly believe the committee will twist themselves into pretzels to get both acc bubbles in. I also can't see them only giving the big east three bids when they were the second rated conference. While I would rather see anyone other than Pitt and Virginia make it I think they get the extra bid over a more deserving bubble.
If brown holds on are they in the first 4. Would love to see them win it and keep the madness going.
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