Which is why I wish we would up our ooc schedule going forward. Having a good ooc win really helps the resume.
BACATOLOGY 3/11: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS
- Thread starter bac2therac
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5-0 against the bottom of the Big East but yes. I still said it was a great win. I have my doubts you win it if he played the whole game but it still counts as a great win for you.
The Indiana State argument is the dangerous place for any of these teams that were in and had bids stolen by NC State, Oregon and we haven't considered Temple, who could somehow steal another bid today.
Once you start comparing the Indiana State "story", the argument becomes less about resume and turns into the "participation trophy-NCAA", gets involved.
I won't be shocked at all if Indiana State gets in over a Seton Hall or St John's, because they'll clearly be able to justify it.
Once you start comparing the Indiana State "story", the argument becomes less about resume and turns into the "participation trophy-NCAA", gets involved.
I won't be shocked at all if Indiana State gets in over a Seton Hall or St John's, because they'll clearly be able to justify it.
The AAC is 100% stealing a bid, whether it be Temple or UAB. Unless FAU gets left out, but nobody is saying they will be.
I believe either St. John’s AND Seton Hall will get in or neither will. Since I don’t think there is room for both, I believe they are both out. The committee always tries to make it easy on themselves and then finds some metric to support their position. They don’t want to be answering the differences between two close teams afterwards.
Check out sos...plus they have no bad losses
Beating ind state and northwestern is greater than beating st johns and provudence
I know the committee doesn't typically consider conference records, but when you're trying to differentiate between teams that play in the same league, that plays a perfectly balanced 20 game double round robin, it seems pretty relevant to me. SHU went 13-7, SJU went 11-9, PC went 10-10. SHU didn't just finish ahead of both, they finished closer to Marquette and Creighton (12-6) than SJU and PC.
If the Hall even had a mediocre OOC performance, they'd be locked into a 6 seed rather than sitting on the bubble with those 2.
Losing 15 games during the year but winning 4 games in March is "better" than winning 20 games during the year somehow.
Great tournament design.......
It's a great made for TV tournament with minimal priority on actual athletics or determining the best team in CBB.
its not that impressive but its clean and they have Q3 wins unlike SHU and PC who get 9 and 11 from Q4.
PC at 10-13 is a no go
SHU is 11-12
Mich State is 15-14
Mich State has better sos than either especially non conference 14/44
shu 32/228
Prov 34/227
plus Mich St has better avg net win and loss 119/36 compared to 153/41 for SHU and 157/36 for PC
If the field was pure 68 at-large teams, how many conference AQ teams would actually make it? Same conference tournament result but no AQ for winning.
For example, UConn is obviously still in.
Is NC State still making it without an AQ even though they beat UNC?
Obviously most of the 1 bid conference champs are out.
For example, UConn is obviously still in.
Is NC State still making it without an AQ even though they beat UNC?
Obviously most of the 1 bid conference champs are out.
non conference does not factor and the fact is shu played a poor ooc schedule and even the 3 schools they played with a plus they lose usc, iowa, rutgers they lost to. Pointing to Missouri as your best ooc win isnt good
nc state, oregon no
but dont understand your point, yes smaller leagues deserve representation.
toughest part of the day for me will be putting aside personal biases that I have developed over the years and my eye test from watching bubble teams this year and putting myself into the selection committee's mind and body. Its not what I think or what is fair. It is based on their criteria they have put forth for selection with the cavaet that they will always pull a fast one or two when it comes to justifying why a school is in or out
I guarantee they are going to be under harsh criticism after the field is revealed but in 24 hours everyone will forget about it.
Also will probably 6 deserving schools left out, this will be the year of the big push to expand the field....although after you get past those 6 the rest of them really are not deserving. Unfortunately expansion is coming but for no real reason than to make $$$
I guarantee they are going to be under harsh criticism after the field is revealed but in 24 hours everyone will forget about it.
Also will probably 6 deserving schools left out, this will be the year of the big push to expand the field....although after you get past those 6 the rest of them really are not deserving. Unfortunately expansion is coming but for no real reason than to make $$$
Virginia's profile is very similar to NC State last years where the Wolfpack were 11 and didnt even have to go to Dayton....NC State was just 1-7 in Q1 but 7-4 in Q2. This year UVA is 2-7/8-3. No loss outside Q3/4. The bubble is tougher this year but its something to keep in mind on what the committee values. This is why both Virginia and Pitt cannot be dismissed out of hand. Especially if the committee already came into discussion with the idea that Virginia was going to be in. Did the bid stealers knock them out.
looks like 2 new ones
NCAA Tournament Selection Committee
The 2023-2024 Selection Committee (the year the term is up is in parenthesis):CHARLES MCCLELLAND (2024) – SWAC Commissioner (Chairperson)
JAMIE POLLARD (2024) – Iowa State Athletic Director
SCOTT BARNES (2024) – Oregon State Athletic Director
BUBBA CUNNINGHAM (2025) – North Carolina Athletic Director (Vice-Chairperson)
MARK COYLE (2026) – Minnesota Athletic Director
GREG BYRNE (2026) – Alabama Athletic Director
KEITH GILL (2026) – Sun Belt Commissioner
BARRY COLLIER (2026) – Butler Athletic Director
MARTIN NEWTON (2027) – Samford Athletic Director
TOM WISTRCILL (2027) – Big Sky Commissioner
ARTHUR JOHNSON (2028) – Temple Athletic Director
RENEE BAUMGARTNER (2028) – Santa Clara Athletic Director
@bac2therac - have you already accounted for the temple/uab winner being a bid stealer for the teams on the bubble?
Michigan States profile is similar to Maryland to last year though the Terps had the better win in Purdue....3-10 in Q1, 6-2 in Q2 vs 3-9/6-5 with neither team having any Q3/4 losses. Terps were seeded 8th and while I dont expect MSU to be that high, I would be surprised if they are left out. A 24 NET for a power 6 would be historic even if you go back to RPI...its just different than leaving out 29 Indiana State who by the way the Spartans beat
yes....UAB would be the 12...have not figured out where Temple would be but its like 14 possibly 15.
on the flip side for Michigan State why they should be worried.....last year OK State was 18-15...now yes a big difference than 19-14 simply because 15 loss schools are not selected. Ok St was 6-12 in Q1 and 4-2 in Q2 for a 10-14 Q1/2 mark, they did have one Q3 loss and their sos was 8 tho Michigan State has a much better sos and MSU's predictive metrics are better
the concern I have with them is their SOR of 50 falls short of where it should be
the concern I have with them is their SOR of 50 falls short of where it should be
Honestly to me the issue is seemingly this Big 12 thing. Dan Hurley said this in the Big East presser yesterday, which means this exact line is getting talked about within the Big East.
I totally understand the need for something like NET, but as it exists right now it can get gamed by conferences scheduling cupcakes and beating up on them.
Wasn't just the Big East caught flat-footed, it was the ACC too. I just glanced at Boston College's schedule... they played teams like Harvard, Richmond, Lehigh, Loyola Chicago instead of like SWAC teams the Big 12 does. Same with like Florida State.
They could easily expand the tournament to 72, 4 sets of playin 16 seeds and 4 playin at larges. NIT could be half that, add 4 to 36 and bring back the conference winners of mid and low majors are AQ that don't make March Madness for the NIT or play in games into the NIT.
If the committee throws the BE a bone and gives then a 4th bid, who will it be?
I mean the issue isn't the number of teams, it's the selection criteria.
The way it's set up, the Big 12 can schedule 300+ NET teams, beat up on them, then enter a self-referential loop where all their wins and losses are Q1 or Q2 lol.
Big 12 is on top of things generally I think. Look what they did to the Pac 12. And again look at the ACC struggling in this. So interesting to me
We play 20 league games. Miss State, Princeton, SHU and Wake was a fine schedule. No choice with Georgetown. Howard is going to the Big Dance!!
there are a few bracketologist doing that...like 3 out of 106 right now but its 98% they make it
St Johns.....UNLESS the field was basically set BEFORE conference tourney action, then its Seton Hall
I'm aware. SJU and Providence each have 1 solid OOC win that SHU doesn't have. I'm just not convinced that's enough to cover the conference play gap. At this point it would be easier to swallow the Big East getting 3 bids than someone else getting the 4th.
looking at some threads from the last 2 years....and again reminder to me, conference tourneys were not valued all that much for selection and seeding. Tend to forget that every year...see Penn State seeding last year as 10 despite making finals of big ten tourney and coming in probably as an 11 when conference tourney play began...Texas A&M was underseeded at 7 and made SEC final. Nevada lost their first MWC game and still made the tourney. NC State got wacked in the acc
I think they may go with metrics here and eye test and St Johns wins out
for anyone watching the tournament, St Johns looks like they belong. Providence too but remember that 10-13 mark plus an injury is tough to overcome. SHU has terrible metrics across the board even with the best win...and they didnt look the part vs St Johns. The bid theives definitely played an impact but im warming to the idea of St johns
I see your logic but I just cannot see St. John's over Seton Hall. St. John's beat Creighton, Hall beat Marquette (basically cancel each other out).
Seton Hall beat UConn which is the best win ANY team, in or out of the field, has this year (unless there is a Clingan asterisk).
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