BACATOLOGY 3/11: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS

[PiscatawayMike]

Digressing a bit, please root for Duquesne to win the A-10 tourney title tomorrow. The last time the Dukes made the NCAA Tournament was in 1977. (That's the year France outlawed the use of the guillotine, last being used on September 10, 1977!)

One of my close childhood friends attended Duquesne (Class of '86). He's a college hoops diehard like us. We lost touch for a long time, but reconnected about 15 years ago when we found each other on Facebook. He now lives in Cary, NC. He grew up in Piscataway and follows RU sports closely.

 

[BigEastPhil]

Digressing a bit, please root for Duquesne to win the A-10 tourney title tomorrow. The last time the Dukes made the NCAA Tournament was in 1977. (That's the year France outlawed the use of the guillotine, last being used on September 10, 1977!)

One of my close childhood friends attended Duquesne (Class of '86). He's a college hoops diehard like us. We lost touch for a long time, but reconnected about 15 years ago when we found each other on Facebook. He now lives in Cary, NC. He grew up in Piscataway and follows RU sports closely.

Was this the guy I met at a football game last year? Nice guy. Will be rooting for Duquesne!

 

[fatsam98]

There are gonna be some unhappy teams tomorrow evening. Can't wait.

 

[STLPirate12]

What a wild year...if the Big East only gets 3 bids, I wonder if they look into expanding to scrap the double round robin. 6 games against top 10 teams plus 4 useless games against Georgetown and DePaul simply didn't leave enough meat for the middle of the league to build differentiating resumes with.

 

[bac2therac]

Ok last update before my final bracket coming sometime tomorrow afternoon after 2. I am seeding Drake and Oregon as 10s. NC State will be an 11 with James Madison. Some schools like Oklahoma, Florida Atlantic and Colorado State will get some deeper dive to compare to the first 6 teams out. Many thought safe but they are getting sucked into the spinning toilet bowl so will they be able to cling to the sides and survive

LAST FOUR BYES: DAYTON, NORTHWESTERN, COLORADO, COLORADO STATE

LAST FOUR IN: FLORIDA ATLANTIC, OKLAHOMA, TEXAS A&M, MICHIGAN STATE

FIRST FOUR OUT: SETON HALL, VIRGINIA, SAINT JOHNS, PROVIDENCE

NEXT FOUR OUT: PITTSBURGH, INDIANA STATE, KANSAS STATE, OHIO STATE

SOME CONSIDERATION: VILLANOVA, WAKE FOREST, IOWA, SOUTH FLORIDA, CINCINNATI, UTAH, MEMPHIS, RICHMOND, VIRGINIA TECH

 

[bac2therac]

There are gonna be some unhappy teams tomorrow evening. Can't wait.

its gonna be so good

 

[fatsam98]

What a wild year...if the Big East only gets 3 bids, I wonder if they look into expanding to scrap the double round robin. 6 games against top 10 teams plus 4 useless games against Georgetown and DePaul simply didn't leave enough meat for the middle of the league to build differentiating resumes with.

With who though? You don't wanna dilute it too much either. Maybe you can add Duke, Wake, Cuse et al when the ACC implodes in a couple years. Or don't overreact to one whacky season.

 

[bac2therac]

What a wild year...if the Big East only gets 3 bids, I wonder if they look into expanding to scrap the double round robin. 6 games against top 10 teams plus 4 useless games against Georgetown and DePaul simply didn't leave enough meat for the middle of the league to build differentiating resumes with.

non conference sos is a big deal....Butler did it but then they screwed up in league play. For SHU to have no quality ooc win is an issue....providence has wiscosin but has 11 wins coming from Q4. you cant go 10-13 vs Q1/2/3. St Johns has a win over Utah but is that anything to write home about. Nova had the wins ooc beating great teams but then shit the bed in the Big 5 games

 

[bac2therac]

With who though? You don't wanna dilute it too much either. Maybe you can add Duke, Wake, Cuse et al when the ACC implodes in a couple years. Or don't overreact to one whacky season.

good advice...its a wacky year...there has never ever been a year quite like this...its one every bracketologists always talks about in his analysis weeks out..if this happens, if this happens...etc...finally we got a year where it all seemed to happen. Imagine if Ohio State made the Big 10 finals and was another potential bid stealer.

 

[fatsam98]

Yeah can't help but feel that SHU's non-con is gonna keep them out. Gonna be fascinating how it plays out

 

[STLPirate12]

With who though? You don't wanna dilute it too much either. Maybe you can add Duke, Wake, Cuse et al when the ACC implodes in a couple years. Or don't overreact to one whacky season.

I agree there's not exactly any great options out there. Just thinking replacing the extra Gtown/DePaul games with a high q2 or low q1 would go a long way. And replacing a 2nd game against 1 or 2 of the top 3 with a more winnable q1 could do the same

 

[BigEastPhil]

What a wild year...if the Big East only gets 3 bids, I wonder if they look into expanding to scrap the double round robin. 6 games against top 10 teams plus 4 useless games against Georgetown and DePaul simply didn't leave enough meat for the middle of the league to build differentiating resumes with.

3 bids? UConn / creighton / Marquette. Guess it could happen.

BE should poach VCU and or look into somehow getting Gonzaga to join. Logistic issues however.

Maybe St Louis / Dayton to make 14.

 

[PiscatawayMike]

Was this the guy I met at a football game last year? Nice guy. Will be rooting for Duquesne!

No, that's Darin. He's a Rutgers grad who lives near Charlotte. My DU friend is Rodney.

 

[fatsam98]

3 bids? UConn / creighton / Marquette. Guess it could happen.

BE should poach VCU and or look into somehow getting Gonzaga to join. Logistic issues however.

Maybe St Louis / Dayton to make 14.

Yeah Dayton's a good call actually. Still don't think they should overreact to one season though, it'll just be dumb bad luck if all 3 bubble teams are left out.

 

[bitnez]

UVA doesn’t have a Q3/4 loss all year and beat Florida and Texas A&M OOC. But man they beat no one in conference

 

[STLPirate12]

non conference sos is a big deal....Butler did it but then they screwed up in league play. For SHU to have no quality ooc win is an issue....providence has wiscosin but has 11 wins coming from Q4. you cant go 10-13 vs Q1/2/3. St Johns has a win over Utah but is that anything to write home about. Nova had the wins ooc beating great teams but then shit the bed in the Big 5 games

Start of the season through RU game SHU was a different team than the rest of the year. Unfortunately that's when the OOC games are played and reality is at that point no SHU fan would have even dreamed about having this discussion this year. While it wasn't a great OOC schedule, it also wasn't the type of cupcake city schedule that the committee looks to make an example of. They just didn't win because, quite simply, at the time they weren't any good.

I guess the truth is, by turning things around just in time for conference play and ultimately finishing closer to 2nd than 5th, SHU is the team to blame for the league's lack of bids. They're the ones they needed to lay down for SJU/PC/Nova/Butler.

 

[bac2therac]

UVA doesn’t have a Q3/4 loss all year and beat Florida and Texas A&M OOC. But man they beat no one in conference

2-6 in Q1 blows but they check alot of boxes even though they didnt do much this year. Its the kind of profile that Notre Dame had a couple years back when they got in over Texas A&M so lets see if the committee falls back on their bad habits of rewarding metrics over performance

if the field was selected BEFORE Thursday, then they and Florida Atlantic will be in good shape.

 

[bac2therac]

Start of the season through RU game SHU was a different team than the rest of the year. Unfortunately that's when the OOC games are played and reality is at that point no SHU fan would have even dreamed about having this discussion this year. While it wasn't a great OOC schedule, it also wasn't the type of cupcake city schedule that the committee looks to make an example of. They just didn't win because, quite simply, at the time they weren't any good.

I guess the truth is, by turning things around just in time for conference play and ultimately finishing closer to 2nd than 5th, SHU is the team to blame for the league's lack of bids. They're the ones they needed to lay down for SJU/PC/Nova/Butler.

or you could have beaten St Johns, the thing is you must still have been bounced even with that win.,,,,again this is just a highly highly unusual year.. SHUs resume is based on two high ends wins but then just beating teams similar to them so how much will the committee value those wins over alot of metrics and numbers that are sketchy

 

[STLPirate12]

or you could have beaten St Johns, the thing is you must still have been bounced even with that win.,,,,again this is just a highly highly unusual year.. SHUs resume is based on two high ends wins but then just beating teams similar to them so how much will the committee value those wins over alot of metrics and numbers that are sketchy

Honestly, I don't think beating St. John's a 3rd time would have made a difference other than knocking SJU out of contention. SHU's Q1 record already stacks up well compared to the bubble and winning that game would've done nothing to address the holes in its resume ( metrics and OOC)

 

[bac2therac]

 

[bac2therac]

Honestly, I don't think beating St. John's a 3rd time would have made a difference other than knocking SJU out of contention. SHU's Q1 record already stacks up well compared to the bubble and winning that game would've done nothing to address the holes in its resume ( metrics and OOC)

beating a bubble team doesnt move needles when you have a bubble scoring big wins and stealing bids. A&M beating Kentucky is a difference maker. Mississippi State over Tennessee turns heads. New Mexico runs to the MW title, 2 bid stealers in Oregon/NC State, Colorado shoring things up on a clean resume by beating Washington State.

 

[fatsam98]

View embedded media

Ugh, they're gonna use this extremely unusual season as the excuse for tournament expansion, aren't they?

 

[STLPirate12]

beating a bubble team doesnt move needles when you have a bubble scoring big wins and stealing bids. A&M beating Kentucky is a difference maker. Mississippi State over Tennessee turns heads. New Mexico runs to the MW title, 2 bid stealers in Oregon/NC State, Colorado shoring things up on a clean resume by beating Washington State.

So we agree, beating St. John's again would've done little to nothing. They'd have also needed to beat UConn again to feel even remotely safe right now.

 

[bac2therac]

So we agree, beating St. John's again would've done little to nothing. They'd have also needed to beat UConn again to feel even remotely safe right now.

yes...they were too close to the cut line coming in vs say a Michigan State who has great metrics but doesnt have great wins. The Spartans had more cushion so when they landed, its likely in the last 4 in not last 4 out

 

[STLPirate12]

yes...they were too close to the cut line coming in vs say a Michigan State who has great metrics but doesnt have great wins. The Spartans had more cushion so when they landed, its likely in the last 4 in not last 4 out

Which leaves Seton Hall's sliver of hope in the idea that predictive metrics are only used for seeding and are irrelevant to selection.

 

[bac2therac]

Which leaves Seton Hall's sliver of hope in the idea that predictive metrics are only used for seeding and are irrelevant to selection.

There's hope. Nothing set in stone yet

 

[silkcitypirate]

What a wild year...if the Big East only gets 3 bids, I wonder if they look into expanding to scrap the double round robin. 6 games against top 10 teams plus 4 useless games against Georgetown and DePaul simply didn't leave enough meat for the middle of the league to build differentiating resumes with.

The second rated conference in the country only gets 3 teams in is a joke. Tournament play should not be more meaningful then in season records.

 

[kcg88]

Here is what I believe the committee will do.

Last four byes: TCU, Northwestern, Florida Atlantic, Michigan State

Last four in: Mississippi State, Colorado, St. John's, Indiana State

First four out: Oklahoma, Virginia, Texas A&M, Seton Hall

I think they like to throw one or two curveballs almost to justify their existence. I could see Seton Hall in over St. John's but I don't think there will be two Big East teams in Dayton.

 

[silkcitypirate]

Here is what I believe the committee will do.

Last four byes: TCU, Northwestern, Florida Atlantic, Michigan State

Last four in: Mississippi State, Colorado, St. John's, Indiana State

First four out: Oklahoma, Virginia, Texas A&M, Seton Hall

I think they like to throw one or two curveballs almost to justify their existence. I could see Seton Hall in over St. John's but I don't think there will be two Big East teams in Dayton.

Trying to figure out the committee's thinking will give you nothing but a big head ache . After the selection of teams they will give us their spin on the whys and why nots .

 

[biazza38]

The second rated conference in the country only gets 3 teams in is a joke. Tournament play should not be more meaningful then in season records.

It’s not better than the SEC and Big 12. The problem for the Big East are the 4 games against Gtown and DePaul this year. No other conference has 4 wins like that. Brutal

 

[donnie_baseball]

yes...they were too close to the cut line coming in vs say a Michigan State who has great metrics but doesnt have great wins. The Spartans had more cushion so when they landed, its likely in the last 4 in not last 4 out

but the metrics are used for seeding, not a bid. Record and wins wise, Seton Hall’s resume is better than Sparty

 

[shields]

We lost to Temple last year which I think killed us and the Hall lost to us and lousy USC.

 

[fatsam98]

but the metrics are used for seeding, not a bid. Record and wins wise, Seton Hall’s resume is better than Sparty

Committee loves clean resumes though.

I don't love Sparty's resume at all personally, they have 2 "great" wins all year and a ton of losses.

But 6-0 in Q3, no Q4 losses.

Is your resume really that much better though? Great wins being UConn (with an injured Clingan) and Marquette. Nice wins at SJU and Prov. But some ugly losses including a disaster of a non-con.

I see some Pirate fans touting "you can't leave us out going 13-7 in the Big East!" Well that's disingenuous too, when 4 of those are Georgetown and DePaul.

 

[RUJMM78]

Bottom line every game matters and losses along with strength of schedule will come back to haunt bubble teams.The challenge for the selection committee is choosing between so many teams with comparable resumes . What wins are more important than others?Lesson learned don't be a bubble team .

 

[STLPirate12]

Committee loves clean resumes though.

I don't love Sparty's resume at all personally, they have 2 "great" wins all year and a ton of losses.

But 6-0 in Q3, no Q4 losses.

Is your resume really that much better though? Great wins being UConn (with an injured Clingan) and Marquette. Nice wins at SJU and Prov. But some ugly losses including a disaster of a non-con.

I see some Pirate fans touting "you can't leave us out going 13-7 in the Big East!" Well that's disingenuous too, when 4 of those are Georgetown and DePaul.

I don't really get the injured Clingan argument. SHU won by 15, was already leading when he went down in the second half, and never trailed in the second half. Would they have had a better shot to come back with him? Sure, but it's not like the Hall wasn't already handling them. UConn also went 5-0 in the games he missed entirely, so still a top notch team. And if people want to make injury excuses, we have our own - 0-2 with Kadary Richmond out injured. Wouldn't have made a difference at Marquette but we very likely win the Providence game if he played.

 

[cicero grimes]

My personal opinion is human bias plays into this to some extent. I cannot see the big east only getting three teams in. I think either st. John's or the hall is the 4th team. I also think they committee finds a way to sneak in a Pitt to appease the acc. I think fau might be in trouble as they did not finish well. I also think indy state gets left out to get the big east and acc an extra team each.

 

[cicero grimes]

I don't really get the injured Clingan argument. SHU won by 15, was already leading when he went down in the second half, and never trailed in the second half. Would they have had a better shot to come back with him? Sure, but it's not like the Hall wasn't already handling them. UConn also went 5-0 in the games he missed entirely, so still a top notch team. And if people want to make injury excuses, we have our own - 0-2 with Kadary Richmond out injured. Wouldn't have made a difference at Marquette but we very likely win the Providence game if he played.

I think the hall deserves a bid. If they could have just closed the Creighton game...

 

[cicero grimes]

The bubble watch is awesome just so long as your team is not on the bubble.

 

[bitnez]

I think they find a way to push out Mich St and get SJU in. You can’t have only 3 teams from Big East

 

[shields]

Beat someone OOC.