BACATOLOGY: 2/20 NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS...UPDATE RUTGERS NOW A 9 SEED AS OF 2/24
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
Tennessee isnt that good. Their profile is all about awesome early season non conference wins but they are trash in the SEC
Because of that ridiculous bogus NET of 3 they are almost guaranteed no worse than a 4 seed
A&M pretty much all but locked in now
Missouri over Mississippi State
So 2 results not good for RU seeding
Because of that ridiculous bogus NET of 3 they are almost guaranteed no worse than a 4 seed
A&M pretty much all but locked in now
Missouri over Mississippi State
So 2 results not good for RU seeding
Changed my mind...seeding
For just making the tourney it was good for RU
Hoping the Hoosiers stage a comeback
Michigan State responding everytime Indiana nibbles into the lead. Not the Hoosiers night. I think Sparty needed this one. Not good for RU seeding though. 4 schools (3 from the SEC) around the already tight 7/8/9 all won so expect some shifting.
Marquette ralled from a big defecit to win at Creighton. Thats going to keep Creighton from breaking into the top 4 this year.
The Indiana loss tonight may not knock them out of the top 4 but its close between UConn, Miami, Indiana for 2 spots on that line.
Texas Tech..yes we can. Beats Oklahoma and now 16-12. Now the hard ones.
Nevada struggling early in the 2nd half at home vs San Jose State trailing 30-27
Marquette ralled from a big defecit to win at Creighton. Thats going to keep Creighton from breaking into the top 4 this year.
The Indiana loss tonight may not knock them out of the top 4 but its close between UConn, Miami, Indiana for 2 spots on that line.
Texas Tech..yes we can. Beats Oklahoma and now 16-12. Now the hard ones.
Nevada struggling early in the 2nd half at home vs San Jose State trailing 30-27
Not much if anything went our way last night.
Wednesday 2/22 rooting guide...
For NCAA seeding purposes, root for the following. Similar to last night, don't expect much help though:
Florida (vs Kentucky)
Minnesota (@ Maryland)
Ole Miss (@ Auburn)
Wake Forest (@ NC State)
New Mexico (@ Boise)
Wisconsin* (vs Iowa)
*Wisconsin winning would also move them up to a Q1 road win. Before last night the Badgers were 76 in the NET, just need them to move up one spot. Also want Iowa to lose for BIG standings.
Wednesday 2/22 rooting guide...
For NCAA seeding purposes, root for the following. Similar to last night, don't expect much help though:
Florida (vs Kentucky)
Minnesota (@ Maryland)
Ole Miss (@ Auburn)
Wake Forest (@ NC State)
New Mexico (@ Boise)
Wisconsin* (vs Iowa)
*Wisconsin winning would also move them up to a Q1 road win. Before last night the Badgers were 76 in the NET, just need them to move up one spot. Also want Iowa to lose for BIG standings.
Home court advantage showing as B1G Ten season nears conclusion.There are too mamy teams with 9-7 record to make any predictions as to final league rankings and NCAA seeding.,
Six wins last night so one above the expected. Virginia Tech is the big loser of the night but they were on life support to begin with. Pittsburgh, Texas A&M, and Arkansas all basically locked themselves in, plus Missouri if they were not there already. The two Mountain West teams avoided bad losses. Texas Tech is now in the conversation but I still think they need 2 of their final 3.
Lastly, Mississippi State missed out on a Q1 win that would've really helped. They have one more chance at a Q1 win next time out when they host Texas A&M. I'd highly recommend winning that. If they lose that and win their final two they're still going to be only 3-7 in Q1 and just 4-3 in Q2, with a Q3 loss.
Tonight on Days Of Our Bubble...
(7:00) Kentucky (45%) at Florida - This probability is low because it doesn't account for Colin Castleton's injury for the Gators. Kentucky joins the near-lock club with a Q1 win here.
(7:00) Vanderbilt (55%) at LSU - The Commodores need to make their hay against Florida, Kentucky, and Mississippi State to close the year but they can't get caught sleepwalking here. As a reminder LSU started the year 12-1 with wins over Wake Forest and Arkansas and the loss was a major collapse against Kansas State. They've been brutally bad in SEC play since then but even bad teams can pick off wins like this at home.
(7:00) Syracuse at Clemson (68%) - Clemson is perhaps technically dead at this point but medics are still performing chest compressions. They need to be perfect from here on out which includes upcoming road games at NC State and Virginia. With a 4-0 finish they'd be worthy of a discussion. But it could also all end tonight at the hands of the Orange.
(9:00) North Carolina (73%) at Notre Dame - The Tar Heels' next game at home against Virginia is the Q1 win they desperately need but they've got to get this one first. Notre Dame is horrible so that should not be an issue.
(9:00) Iowa at Wisconsin (51%) - The Badgers are 4-9 in their last 13 games but somehow not only still in the mix, but in the field according to the Bracket Matrix composite right now. This is an important Q2 game for them as they sit at 4-4 in that category. With a loss they'd be under .500 in Q1, under .500 in Q2, and they own a Q3 loss. They wouldn't be fully cooked because their next two are Q1 but they've got to put wins on the board.
(10:30) New Mexico at Boise State - This is as juicy as they get. Boise State is on the 11 line, New Mexico is the first team out at Bracket Matrix. If the Broncos hold serve at home they open up more separation, but if New Mexico goes in at wins it's a third impressive road win (St. Mary's and San Diego State the others) and maybe vaults them over a team like Wisconsin even if the Badgers also win tonight.
Six games, but one is a zero-sum double bubble special. Of the five, there are 2.92 projected wins. Again I think the Kentucky number is off so Vandy and Wisconsin are the big ones to watch, plus the Mountain West game late.
Off the board:
Wake Forest is too far off the radar but they can pick up a second Q1 win at NC State. Probably still not enough to sniff the cut line. Auburn hosts Ole Miss and that would be the kind of loss that drops them down onto the bubble.
Congrats to @bac2therac! You're linked on the home page!
Yeah root hard for Wisconsin tonight. It looks realistically like the best chance of all the seeding impact games. Gives us that extra Q1 win but also big for seeding. They did pull off the win earlier against Iowa. Does not seem like a good matchup up for them on paper but.....
How did Wisconsin pull of three home games in a row late in the season. I dont think any of their games were rescheduled. No one can ever tell me there is not some shenanigans that go on in the off season.
How did Wisconsin pull of three home games in a row late in the season. I dont think any of their games were rescheduled. No one can ever tell me there is not some shenanigans that go on in the off season.
I don't think it's a good thing. Ohio State has three home games in a row coming up. I bet they wish they had one or two of those earlier.
Shocked to see Xavier fall from 25 to 34 in the NET. Their resume on paper is better than their NET. They are out of contention for a 4 seed. Likely down in that 5-6 range battling it out Creighton. Providence has a shot to sneak into that 6 at some point but it means one of the other two would drop to 7
The Iowa State situation is maddening. They were listed in the top 16 NCAA reveal as a 3 seed, 11th on the seed list yet since they dropped down to 17-10 with losses at Texas by 18 and at Kansas State by 6. I get they were just Q1 losses but the loss total is a bit bulky for a top 4 seed with at least 4 more games yet to be played. 8-9 in Q1 will really good but they have to win games to even stay as a 5 or 6. They have lost 6 of 8 now. Cyclones get two so called weaker Big 12 schools coming to Ames that could be the tonic before closing at Baylor. Will need two of these to stay on that 4/5 line.
The Iowa State situation is maddening. They were listed in the top 16 NCAA reveal as a 3 seed, 11th on the seed list yet since they dropped down to 17-10 with losses at Texas by 18 and at Kansas State by 6. I get they were just Q1 losses but the loss total is a bit bulky for a top 4 seed with at least 4 more games yet to be played. 8-9 in Q1 will really good but they have to win games to even stay as a 5 or 6. They have lost 6 of 8 now. Cyclones get two so called weaker Big 12 schools coming to Ames that could be the tonic before closing at Baylor. Will need two of these to stay on that 4/5 line.
oh when you mention Ohio State do not get me started...how many straight weeks have they been on national tv either cbs or fox, what an embarrassment, You would think in this day and age there can be some flexible scheduling bases on how the season evolves.
The Big 10 stuck it to Rutgers because of that Michigan State MSG fiasco considered a home game. So RU has to "travel" and yes the travel to NYC is small in distance but requires the same kind of itinerary for a road trip not a home game at the RAC. Then they send RU on the road against two of the expected top schools in league at Indiana and Illinois
These things do not happen by chance.
Also RU drew Purdue early in the season 2 straight times. Whether there is an advantage to playing them earlier I dont know, RU also got Indiana early too. Those were the two biggest games of the season and they happened in 2022.
No one can convince me that of all people that Izzo does not have the most clout in the league. I saw they had a full week off to prepare for RU at MSG. Just a coincidence..no way.
Going to do some numbers crunching on the 7s and 8s and 9s after last night. Some of those schools got big wins and will be rewarded in the seeding that really can shake RU off that 7 line. Its still oh so tight
One thing is clear, Rutgers has to win Thursday to maintain pace as a 7/8. If they are on that 9 line getting close to the 10.
One thing is clear, Rutgers has to win Thursday to maintain pace as a 7/8. If they are on that 9 line getting close to the 10.
Thank You!!!
It so damn obvious!!!
Indiana and Purdue and MSU we’re conference favorites heading into the season.
So here is what I have this morning. RU drops to an 8 after last nights results. The issue for Rutgers is 4 games left but only one will be perceived as a quality win. Other schools picked up big wins last night. Michigan State grabbed their biggest win of the season. Texas A&M got their biggest win of the season. Yes Penn State would be a Q1 win but it will not move the needle in seeding unless its stacked with 2 more wins...Go 3-1 in this stretch and RU can still be a 7. Split the 4 its looking like more of a 9. Lose 3 of 4 and we are on the 11 line moving close to last 4 in. Of course the good news is that RU has the best win in the country at Purdue so again rooting for Purdue to win as much as possible is pretty important.
7 SEEDS
8 SEEDS
9 SEEDS
1O SEEDS
11 SEEDS
LAST 4 OUT
NEXT 4 OUT
7 SEEDS
- MISSOURI
- ILLINOIS
- MICHIGAN STATE
- TEXAS A & M
8 SEEDS
- RUTGERS
- MARYLAND
- PROVIDENCE
- ARKANSAS
9 SEEDS
- DUKE
- PITTSBURGH
- KENTUCKY
- NORTH CAROLINA STATE
1O SEEDS
- FLORIDA ATLANTIC
- AUBURN
- NEVADA
- WEST VIRGINIA
11 SEEDS
- BOISE STATE
- MEMPHIS
- MISSISSIPPI STATE
- OKLAHOMA STATE
- USC
- WISCONSIN
LAST 4 OUT
- CHARLESTON
- MICHIGAN
- PENN STATE
- NEW MEXICO
NEXT 4 OUT
- UTAH STATE
- TEXAS TECH
- NORTH CAROLINA
- VANDERBILT
Would be great if we can get into that 7th seed and it really is on us to just win. I have to imagine if NW keeps winning and so do we that our home game against them will be so crucially important and epic
Literally thousands of words written about seeding as if we are already in . Hell, we'll have big problems winning any of our next four, especially with the injuries. Where do guys get the time to write these novels-- does anyone work anymore( real work) ?
Sir, may I suggest not clicking on the bracketology thread if it upsets you this much
How did Iowa, NW and Wisconsin get 3 home games in a row and we almost got 3 away from the RAC( MSG game against MSU) and no other team got that benefit that those 3 got and no one got the shaft or rather tougher course than RU.
Will be interesting as Iowa wins 3 in a row at home , tough ones against RU and Illinois but wins and then goes on the road and loses by 20 to NW.
Now NW wins 3 in a row and tomorrow night starts their 3 out of 4 road games. Let’s see how they do.
Finally Wisconsin , losers of 4 of 6 or 6 of 8 , get 3 home games to get right.
The BIG 10 never stops doing amazing things.
i think there was some scheduling stuff at play with the Northwestern/Iowa game being rescheduled but otherwise agree, seeing alot of breaks for certain programs and obviously the msu, indy, ill trio of away games for RU is concerning especially because then it was RU away at Wisconsin...plus before the Minny game, RU was at Iowa...that makes 5 games away from the RAC out of 7....to end the season RU plays 7 of 10 games away from the RAC
I know some had orgasms here about msg and playing there but in reality 7 of 10 away from the RAC is a screw job
You’re acting like they lost at MSG. It was 100% a pro Rutgers crowd and was a good environment for Rutgers
Some people are passionately interested in things you’re only mildly interested in. And because you prioritize your interests over the authors’ as being more important (ie better), you get to rank them below yourself within your hierarchy of values. Your statement was made for the purpose of boosting your own self esteem, which means you’re insecure. It’s like venting, it feels better as you’re saying it but immediately afterwards you go back to being angry. So in the end, you’re still the same insecure person you were before. Maybe you can’t get laid, or maybe it’s because you feel unappreciated by your coworkers, I don’t know what it is, nor do I care. The only thing I do know for sure—due to your post—is that you’re an insecure bitch. Now go back to whatever it is you do, because apparently it’s sure as shit superior to those of us enjoying this thread.
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