Okay we are now less than two weeks away from Selection Sunday. We have had some wild changes along the bubble border. It's March, we need to expect the unexpected!
There are 32 AQs (automatic qualifiers from each conference). * denotes projected AQ. There are 36 at large bids. I am projecting 24 at large locks leaving 12 available spots in the field. I am projecting 28 schools competing for those 12 open spots. Locks are all the way up through the Eight seeds.
ONE SEEDS
TWO SEEDS
THREE SEEDS
FOUR SEEDS
FIVE SEEDS
SIX SEEDS
SEVEN SEEDS
EIGHT SEEDS
NINE SEEDS
(40) NEVADA 23-6: Wolfpack spent the past few weeks hanging around the last 4-8 in but got some separation with a thrilling road win at Colorado State. That gave them their 5th Q1 win and completed a sweep of the Rams. 5-5 in Q1 is very impressive and includes a road win at league leading Utah State, home win over San Diego State and the requisite OOC win of note over TCU. A couple of things perhaps holding them back in seeding will be the Q3 loss to Wyoming, the fact that 11 of their wins are in Q4, their non conference sos is just 259. Do note the Pack was swept by New Mexico including a 34 point loss which likely dinged the metrics. A trip to Boise State and a home game with UNLV remain. Getting that UNLV game will make it academic but still think their resume can overcome a 0-2 finish.
(32) MISSISSIPPI STATE 19-10: Bulldogs had a rough week blowing a home win over Kentucky and then not really competitive in a 15 point loss at Auburn. Their overall metrics still holding up and its matched by a solid SOR at 36 but still a tricky week to come. A road trip to desperate but fading Texas A&M and a home clash with South Carolina. MSU would do themselves well to get one of these games to keep them above the fray of the last 8 in. Their win over Tennessee keeps looking better and better. Just 3-7 in Q1, shows wins over Auburn and a neutral court win OOC over Washington State. There is an additional Q2 win over Northwestern....4-2 in Q2 for 7-9 in Q1/2 is okay but not great. Note the bad loss at Georgia Tech has slipped back into Q2 for now. There is a bad Q4 loss at home to Southern. Road mark at 2-7 is a red flag. Similar in some ways to the Nebraska profile but the difference is the Bulldogs did get those non conference wins of note.
(38) TCU 19-10: Horned Frogs had a 0-2 week losing at home to Baylor and then on the road to BYU. No shame in those losses. TCU holds a superlative win over Houston this year that counts as two or even 3 wins. There is a needed quality road win at Baylor. Yet TCU is a woeful 3-10 in Q1 (that other win was just at Kansas State barely a Q1). Q2 is better at 4-0 putting them even as the 7-10 mark Q1/2 is still a bit shaky. There are two additional wins there over teams in the field Texas Tech and Oklahoma. That non conference sos of 326 is ugly and their best OOC win is just Arizona State. Even with some warts, TCU looks very close but it is about taking care of business and avoiding stinging Q3 losses in their final 2 of at WVU, home to UCF.
(43) NEBRASKA 21-9: If only the Huskers could play all their games at home. Nebby ran their home mark to 18-1 with a fairly easy win over Rutgers last night. Earlier in the week, a loss at Ohio State dropped their road record to just 2-8 and that is one of two red flags that continue to dog a profile that normally would be a NCAA lock. 4-7 in Q1 and 3-2 in Q2 are okay but not great numbers. There are no bad losses here. Nebraska has a feather in their cap win over Purdue that is worth 2 or 3 wins. They have 3 additional wins over schools projected in the field....Wisconsin, Northwestern and Michigan State. Yet all were at home. Their best road win was at Kansas State a team who has slipped from serious at large contention. For Nebby, a trip to horrid Michigan presents a danger. Win the game and they are in no question. Lose the game and not only are they accruing a bad loss (may actually be just a Q2) but it would cement their status as a hometown hero. Could they be punished dramatically by having to play in the first four games? That is a real possibility when you take into consideration their other red flag of a non conference sos of 314. Remember conference standings are not a factor and while I am dubious to how much weight conference tourney performance will matter to the selection committee, winning neutral sites games can only help them and their seedin
TEN SEEDS
(22) MICHIGAN STATE 17-12: Oh Izzo what have you done? The Spartans did not look all that bad in challenging Purdue on Saturday night but that makes 3 losses in a row following the debacles at home vs Iowa and Ohio State. Thank god Sparty has that NET metric of 22 in their favor largely in part to their excellent sos numbers at 12/41. It is not matched by the SOR which is at a worrisome 47. 4-8 in Quad 1 and 4-4 in Q2 makes for 8-12 in Q1/2 but digging into these wins, they have only 3 wins vs teams projected in field....Baylor, Illinois and Indiana State. The loss total now is in the bulky range. I get the SOS is strong but schools who get at large bids with 14 losses usually have 5-6 quality wins to back them up and that is not the case here. Could Sparty play their way out of the tournament. Yes it is possible. They will not dance at 17-15. The next game at Northwestern is a must win. For one it will be another win vs a team in field, secondly gives them another Q2 win and most important probably quells any notion of missing the tourney although first four is still in play if they split. Fail to do that and the finale at Indiana is going to be very very interesting.
(41) OKLAHOMA 19-10: Sooners suddenly find themselves vulnerable after having dropped 4 of 5 (the one win was a 2 pt OT win over lowly OK St). Yes all the losses were to projected top 4 seeds including an oh so close 2 point loss to Houston on Saturday but at some point you have to start pulling off one of these games. Sooners are 4-9 in Q1 and 4-1 in Q2 for a solid 8-10 yet they only have 2 wins vs teams in the field....home wins over Iowa State and BYU. Their biggest non conference win Providence has slipped out of the field for now. There are no bad losses yet non conference sos is 280. The SOR is helping them at 30 as is no loss outside Q2 in fact just 1 loss outside Q1. They had better win the home game with Cincy next because if not then the trip to Texas becomes a play in or out game for them.
(35) FLORIDA ATLANTIC 22-7: Jekyll and Hyde resume for the Owls. That win over Arizona keeps giving and giving. Unfortunately the Owls have wobbled a bit otherwise. A Q4 loss to Bryant plus a straddling Q3/4 loss to Florida Gulf Coast. Their play in the AAC has not been as sharp as anticipated, currently 12-4 in the 10th rated conference in the country. USF has the AQ from the AAC for now and already has a win over the Owls. Owls also lost AAC games to Memphis, Charlotte and UAB. 1-2 in Q1 but a better 6-3 in Q2 but those non conference wins over Butler, Texas A&M, and Va Tech have faded substantially in the last couple of weeks. This is a profile in decline. Owls need to win their last two at NorthTexas and home to Memphis. Their non conference sos of 51 is strong and I know its not suppose to matter but that human element recalling their run last year is likely going to factor in and they can justify it by pointing to the Arizona win. Winning the AAC tourney though should bump them to the 8-9 line. Any further losses and its not unimaginable they could slip into the first four games.
(26) VILLANOVA 17-12: Cats have done it. The most scandalous profile of 2024 has busted their way into the field. The Q3 losses to Penn, Drexel and St Joes do stick out like sore thumbs but ultimately it is hard to ignore the quality wins here along with their strong metrics and that is likely to rule the day. Nova's win at Providence was their 4th Q1 win completing a sweep of the Friars and also knocked them out of the field for now. 4-8 in Q1 is led by those a duo of OOC wins that no one on the bubble has...North Carolina and Texas Tech. In league play, Nova has a highlight win at Creighton. 6-1 in Q2 pushes their Q1/2 to a strong 10-9. A 4th win vs team in field: Seton Hall and bubble Memphis. SOS strong stuff at 23/81. Still with a bulkly loss total of 12, Nova has to split this weeks games and it will not be easy. A trip to bubble Seton Hall first. Likely a win and you are in game but a loss would not necessarily knock either out. Nova hosts Creighton so a 2nd chance for a Q1 win. Should Nova lose both they head to the BE tourney at 17-14 and that is a bit of trouble. Tough to get bids with 15 losses and thats when one of those Q3 missteps will come into play. Keep in mind they have jumpstarted St John's profile since they Johnnies swept them.
ELEVEN SEEDS
(29) INDIANA STATE*25-5: Sycamores wrapped up the Missouri Valley regular season title and are the projected AQ heading into the MVC tourney. Thh overall NET at 29 is their best asset but do note their SOR at 38 is also very good for a mid major. MVC is the 9th rated conference this year, rated ahead of both the AAC and WCC who likely land 2 bids. While that would normally be good news for ISU's at large chances, the truth is the impact wins are not on the resume. 1-3 in Q1 but that win was at Bradley. 4-3 in Q2 would seem okay but the best win is Drake and another win over Bradley. Those are not the kind of wins that cut the mustard in a year where there are seem to be a lot of bloated power 6 conferences lurking with high end wins.
(70) RICHMOND* 22-7: Spiders continue to spin a web atop the A10 standings giving them the AQ. Their resume is highlighted by a win over Dayton, their only Q 1 win (1-3). On paper the 6-2 Q2 mark looks good on paper but do wins over Loyola, Duquense, VCU, UNLV move the needle. The 2 Q3 losses to Charlotte and Wichita State are not necessarily that bad on paper but remove them and that would be a NCAA resume. Not saying they do not have a chance at an large but its going to be tough. Dayton's cache has fallen a bit and there is not another A10 school with a national profile. The committe has been favorable to the A10 in handing them second or third bids in the past and they are the 8th rated conference so I suppose winning out and a trip to the finals losing to Dayton putting them at 26-8 will get them a look.
(68) SETON HALL 18-11: Pirates did not give a good account of themselves this week in brutal beatdowns at Creighton and UConn, the latter by 30 points on national tv. If the eye test exists, they failed miserably. How much juice can the Pirates squeeze from being one of only 3 schools to beat UConn and also their win over Marquette. With PC out of the field, SHU is down to just 2 wins over the field. They did sweep St Johns who is right on the cut line and that is a positive. Pirates at 68 in the NET are in trouble territory. Yes there have been schools selected with poor NETs but usually they have multiple quality wins. While the Pirates are 5-7 in Q1, that looks better on paper when you realize two of them were road wins to mediocre Xavier and Butler. 3-3 in Q2 shows a loss to bubble Iowa and a straddling Q2/3 loss to USC. There is an additional Q3 home loss to Rutgers. SHU simply did not get it done in non conference play with their best win being Missouri. Not good when you compare them to Nova/PC/St Johns who all have at least one quality non conference victory. The home game vs Nova this week means more to the Pirates than it does to the Wildcats. With a game vs horrid De Paul left, the Pirates are in must win mode here or they will have to rely upon a Big East tourney run and its no given the selection committee will consider those games.
(49) VIRGINIA 21-9: Cavs are teetering. Losers of 3 of last 4, they were held in the 40s in all of those losses. Their profile just absorbed a 73-48 loss to Duke on Saturday. The reality of the situation is with just one game left vs Georgia Tech that will not do anything but harm them further, UVA is skidding out of the tourney. Do not know how much more they can squeeze out of a win at Clemson and a home win to Florida which make up their woeful 2-6 Q1 mark include several 20 point beatdowns. A solid 6-3 in Q1 mark helps push the Q1/2 mark to a respectable 8-9 but its filled with wins over the likes of fading Wake, Texas A&M, Va Tech. There is a bad loss to Notre Dame which qualifies as a Q2. 13 of their wins coming from Q3/4 is not so hot for a ACC school. Placing them in the field for now but well aware that the schools below them in the pecking order all have quality win opportunities in the final week that Virginia is not going to get or will not get in early ACC tourney action.
(28) NEW MEXICO 20-8: Lobos losing touch with the rest of the Mountain West projected in schools. Perhaps the only thing saving them is their strong metrics at 28 but again NET is not how they select. Their SOR of record is a flashing red light at 69. They are just 2-5 in Q1 led by their road win at Nevada and a home win over San Diego State. 3-1 in Q2 gives them a total of 5 wins vs teams in field...the thumping of Nevada, Colorado State and Utah State. Yet is beating the other top MWC schools enough to give this conference 6 schools. 5-6 in Q1/2 is not good at this level. The Lobos non conference sos is a poor 270 lower than the rest of the MW. To be fair they do have 2 nice wins over projected AQs La Tech and UC Irvine so actually they do hve 7 wins vs teams in the field. The Q3 loss to solid UNLV can be forgiven but its the Q4 home loss to Air Force that may end up being costly here. Fresno State up next is a must win but starting to think that the Lobos must win at league leading Utah State if they want to stay in the field.
(46) UTAH 18-11: Utes have scraped and scrapped their way into the field as the last team in but it is a very very precarious position. Its not a spectacular profile but it does just enough to check the boxes. I understand and stress that conferences are not looked at per se. The Pac 12 is the 6th rated conference in the country. The idea that the 7th rated conference the Mountain West would get 6 and the Pac 12 only 2 (Arizona and Washington State) does not seem realistic. 4-7 in Q1 and 8-10 mark in Q1/2 is solid. Biggest wins were out of conference....neutral site wins over BYU and a win at St Marys. Those are the kind of wins OOC and on the road the committee is looking for. Additionally there is a split with Washington State and a split with Colorado. A win over bubble Wake. Head to head not a thing but do note the Utes have a loss to surging profile St Johns so have to see how things play out there. A couple of messy losses to Stanford and getting swept by Arizona State..one of which counts as Q3 their only blemish out of Q2. SOS numbers are in their favor at 37/27. That is the kind of thing that could work in their favor vs a Seton Hall or a St Johns but SOR at 53 does not. Last two is a trip to the Oregon schools and they need both.
TWELVE SEEDS
(79)SOUTH FLORIDA* 22-5: Bulls are the projected AQ from the AAC and have already wrapped up the regular season title. Doing a fine job in league with the departure of Houston, USF has wins over Memphis in Q1, FAU and SMU in Q2. Only conference loss was Q2 to UAB. However very very slim hopes for an at large due to a lot of red flags. For starters the non conference sos of 322 is garbage. There are two Q4 losses at home to Maine/Central Michigan. Just 1-0 in Q1, 5-3 in Q2. Only win vs team in field is FAU. 16 of their 22 wins coming from Q3/4. if they can win last two and make AAC finals where they lose to FAU I suppose there is a chance they could get considered at 26-6. Do note that AP Top 25 is irrelevant. They can be ranked 19 and skipped over.
(51)PRINCETON*21-3: Tigers move to Ivy AQ after their win over Cornell. Very good NET that could lead them to an 11 seed but Princeton must win the Ivy tourney. There will not be an at large from the Ivy. Not with Princeton's resume with zero Q1 wins or games even. A 3-3 mark in Q2 with wins over Rutgers, Hofstra, and Duquense do not do anything. That loss to St Joes hurts. Cannot get around 18 of 21 win in Q3/4.
(55) GRAND CANYON* 25-4: Lopes are the projected AQ from the WAC. Their at large chances took a major hit two weeks back with back to back losses to Tarleton State and Abilene Christian. The former was just a Q2 loss but the Q3 almost Q4 to Abilene is likely a bridge to far. Its a shame because GC does have a win over San Diego State. There is also a win over San Fransisco and Liberty in Q2 and a Q3 win over CUSA AQ La Tech. 22 of their 25 wins are from Q3 and 4 and 15 alone in Quad 4.
(56) MC NEESE STATE* 22-3: Cowboys are the AQ in the Southland but their at large hopes appear rather dim. They do have a Quad 1 win over VCU and 2-2 in Q2 with wins over UAB and Michigan. That nasty Q4 loss to SE Louisiana is probably one too many on a resume where 16 wins are coming from Quad 4.
THIRTEEN SEED
APPALACHIAN STATE*
SAMFORD*
LOUISIANA TECH*
UC IRVINE*
FOURTEEN SEEDS
AKRON*
VERMONT*
CHARLESTON*
MOREHEAD STATE*
FIFTEEN SEEDS
HIGH POINT*
EASTERN WASHINGTON*
OAKLAND*
COLGATE*
SIXTEEN SEEDS
EASTERN KENTUCKY*
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE*
QUINNIPIAC*
NORFOLK STATE*
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE*
GRAMBLING STATE*
BUBBLE OUT
(39) SAINT JOHN'S 17-12: The Redmen did not play over the weekend but not sure any school in the country had a better boost to their profile than they did. Little movements here and there can wildly alter metrics. The Johnnies now have 5 Q 1 wins....5-9 with the improvements of Utah and Villanova metrics and in performance. The win over Creighton two weeks ago was absolutely necessary as it revived a resume that was barren. Now they have 4 wins vs teams in the field and stand ohsoclose with Utah for that last spot in. As I said head to head is not considered but this is a close one. Having those 2 wins over Nova with Nova so precariously slotted above them is a nice weapon. Unfortunately on the flip side, they were swept by Seton Hall. 4-2 in Q2 makes it 9-11 in Q1/2. Providence is still lurking right there and SJU split with them. There is one bad loss at home to Michigan in Q3 that they will certainly want back to produce a clean profile. SOS of 15 overall very good but the 182 non conference just below average. SOR at 46 and Net 39 is a solid combo to have. The issue is the next 2 are at Georgetow and De Paul. Both would seem autowins. Any loss would eliminate their chances as they are already at a bulkly loss total of 12. Yet those wins while padding their win total will likely drop their metrics somewhat. Definitely rooting for Nova to keep winning.
(31) WAKE FOREST 18-11: Demon Deacons appeared set after a win over Duke but followed that up with losses at Notre Dame and Va Tech. Now technically those are Q2 and Q1 road losses respectively but no one in their right mind will tell you that those are not bad losses at a time where Wake only need to take care of business against lesser to beef on their Q1/2 mark. Now just 1-6 in Q1. Their other 2 wins vs teams in the field beside Duke reside in Q2 where they are 6-5. Those are home wins over Florida and Virginia ( a split with the Cavs). There is an additional quality win over bubble Pitt but that loss to Notre Dame add onto questionable Q2 losses to Georgia, FSU and LSU. 7-11 isnt a great mark vs Q1/2. 2 other red flags are the 2-9 road mark and 243 non conference sos...pair that with just one Q1 win and that spells trouble. A home game with Ga Tech up next followed by a Q1 home game v Clemson where they are in must win mode. That could be just enough to lift their profile up but keep in mind their SOR is way down at 58 now.
(62) PROVIDENCE 18-11: Things are not going good for the Friars. The Bryce Hopkins injury situation is playing out much like the Mawot Mag injury did for Rutgers. Friars were 11-2 before he was injured in the SHU game and have gone 7-9 since. They did somehow manage their biggest win of the season vs Creighton without him but its clear they are not the same team and the selection committe is not too foregiving. It is a shame because 5-8 vs Quad 1 is a very solid mark. In addition to the Creighton win, there are wins vs Marquette and a nice OOC one over Wisconsin. PC split with both the Hall and SHU. The loss at home to Nova on Saturday really hurt as Nova completed the season sweep but worse yet, the Friars dropped 3 games below 500 at 8-11 in Q1/2/3. Losses to the likes of Kansas State and Xavier in Q2 proving costly. 10 of their 18 wins in Quad 4 is a huge red flag and the OOC SOS of 250 stinks. Next up is a trip to Georgetown which can only hurt them and then a home clash with Connecticut to end the season. Win and in seems pretty easy there but seems like an almost impossible task right?
(57) IOWA 18-12: The Hawkeyes are getting hot at the right time and now face a possible win and in situation as they host Illinois on Sunday. For now its a nice profile that needs more. The win at Northwestern certainly put them in position to have a serious chance. A win vs Illinois likely puts them over the top. Just 3-8 currently in Q1 with the wins at Michigan State and NW highlighting with a home win over Wisconsin. Quad 2 is more foregiving at 5-3 to put them at 8-11 in Q1/2. Wins there include non conference vs bubble Seton Hall and Nebraska...that is 5 wins in total vs teams in the field. There is one bad Q3 loss to Michigan early on that they really would want back. SOS stuff is decent at 16/98 and SOR at 43 is better than their NET. Big stakes on Sunday for Fran.
(30) COLORADO 20-9: I keep saying every week how unimpressed I am with the Buffaloes resume yet every week they inch closer to moving into the field. Its more of a case of what they have not done rather than what they have done. At 30 they are the highest rated NET team not projected in the field. Their SOR might be more appropriate at a middling 50. Just one Quad 1 (1-5) and that is barely in Q1, a road win at mediocre Washington. Now in Quad 2, they managed to go 7-4 which brings their Q1/2 mark up to a mirage at 8-9. This is where we start to see some nice wins....Washington State, Utah and A10 AQ Richmond. Yet there are also 4 losses to drek like UCLA. FSU, Cal, and ASU...3 of those losses on the road and their road mark is a paltry 2-7. Their SOS is 253. So while their metrics might be better than Utah, you can see that Utah's 8-10 plus their strong schedule strength gives them a nod for now given they split the regular season series. If they want any chance of staying alive they have to sweep the Oregon schools in the last 2. Not sure how the selection committee will deal with conference tourney performance this year so need to watch that going forward in the Pac 12 tourney.
(52) JAMES MADISON 27-3: The Dukes ended the season in the Sunbelt on a 10 game win streak and will be the 2nd seed to top seeded nemesis Appalachian State. ASU handed JMU 2 losses by a combined 10 points. Not much shame there..one was a Q1, the other a Q2. Their only Q1 win was at Michigan State, a win that still looks strong even with the Spartans sagging a bit. The Southern Miss loss in Q3 is costly but are we judging mid major so harshly that a 27-3 team..possibly 29-4 on Selection Sunday should be passed over for a 13-14 loss bloated school from a power 6. JMU sos non conference at 330 and that 20 of their 27 wins are in Q4 are hard to explain away. Yet the one time they faced a big school they won. On the flip side, perhaps a school that loses to Appalachian State 3x does not deserve a bid. Nonetheless they will definitley be considered as one of the strongest low to mid major at large schools on the board.
(54) TEXAS A & M: 16-13: It was only a Q2 road win at not in the field Georgia but it was so necessary to quell the bleeding on their resume after 5 straight losses. The Aggies at least can see a path. With games in Q2 at home vs Mississippi State and on the road at Ole Miss, A&M is is must win mode. The bulky loss total is the biggest issue since eventually in the SEC tourney they will take on a 14 loss putting them in sketchy territory. First to address, the bad. There are 4 Q3 losses here and not sure I have ever seen a team with that many get selected as an at large. Ole Miss is close to moving to Q2. Losses to LSU, Arkansas and worst of all Vandy are inexcusable. 11-13 vs Q1/2/3 can be helped by those 2 wins to end the year. 5-6 in Q1 is excellent...wins here over Tennessee/Kentucky and non conference vs Iowa State. 4-6 in Q2 with a win over Florida. Yet losses to Memphis and Arkansas here are more missteps. Aggies have strong sos stuff working in their favor at 13/22, unfortunately that SOR of 65 is below the Mendoza line.
(78) MISSISSIPPI 20-9: Rebels metrics have cratered. Started out 15-1 and now have lost 8 of their last 13 and do not even qualify as a Q 1 road game or Q2 home game for their opponents. They have lost 6 of 8 and the only wins in the stretch were to an awful Missouri. Paying attention yet. Their quad stuff is pathetic. 2-7 in Q1 but neither team in the field at A&M and at UCF. The 3-2 in Q2 does show their two wins over teams in the field...Florida and Mississippi State. There is an additional win over Memphis but this is not getting them into the field. 15 of their 20 wins coming from Q3/4 and you might guess the non conference sos is horrific at 324. At best you can say no bad losses and somehow the SOR is at 35. Last 2 of at Georgia and home to Texas A&M are Q2s they have to win but its going to be hard to see a path to overcome their negatives.
(73) KANSAS STATE 17-12: Wildcats barely hanging in and were not helped by the Q1 road loss at UCF (not a tourney team). Yet with games at Kansas and home to Iowa State left to go, they cannot be counted out yet. KSU has 4 Q wins in its 4-6 mark and they all are legit type wins...Baylor, Kansas, BYU and Villanova. Its what the Cats failed to do in Q2 as to why they are languising out of the field. Just 3-6 there with losses to USC, Miami and OK State. There is a win there over Providence that is solid but 7-12 in that Q1/2 grouping is not passable. Now add in 2 Q1 wins and its likely they are dancing. Whether they can pull that sweep off is another story. What if they do beat ISU but fall at Kansas...would have 5 strong Q1 wins in the top conference in the country. Ultimately though they would end with 14 losses and it might be one too many. Non conference sos is not good at 221, SOR at 56 and road mark at 2-7 all conspiring against.
(71) MEMPHIS 22-8: Tigers have reeled off 4 in a row to keep hanging around but appear to be distinct longshots. For starters, the AAC has sunk to the 10th rated conferences. USF is the projected AQ and FAU is next in line for the at large and its a wide gap to Memphis. AAC will not get 3. Besides their home Q2 win over FAU, much of their good was done in their non conference play. They beat Clemson, Virginia and won at Texas A&M and VCU. Non conference sos a respectable 70
9. 3-2 in Q1/3-3 Q2 isnt all that bad. That Q4 home loss to Rice left a permanent scar on their profile. Throwing in a Q3 loss to Tulane and Q2 losses to UAB and North Texas and you see why the Tigers are having trouble nailing down 3rd in the league and might fall back as far as 6th. Any hope they still have rests with winning at Florida Alantic in the season finale...a game the Owls want to absolutely lock up a bid before the AAC tourney and then reaching the finals of the AAC with FAU as their opponent again.
(59) OHIO STATE 18-12: Somehow someway the Buckeyes are here. In a battle to stay out of first day games in the Big 10 tourney, OSU has picked up 3 of their 5 Q1/2 wins in just the past few weeks...but there in lies the issue. They have a pair of wins over Purdue and Alabama among the finest in the country. Wins at Michigan State and home to Nebby do move the needle...4 wins vs teams in the field. The issue is they are just 5-11 in Q1/2 and that is simply a non starter for the selection committee. That means 13 of their 18 wins coming from Q3/4. Pretty bad for a Power 6 school. That Q3 loss to Indiana does not seem bad but it still would not help the problem that they just did win enough or schedule tough enough reflected by that 254 OOC SOS. A win in a Q2 game against mediocre Rutgers will not change the resume. Too little too late yet Ohio State looks to be on target to host a NIT home game.
(44) PITTSBURGH 19-10: A pretty decent record to go along with a NET of 44 but just how realistic are their chances. That win at Duke is a very fine win. There is a win at Virginia. Those two make up the 2 Q1 wins (just 2-6). After that the 5-2 is not bad to make 7-8 in Q1/2...wins over Wake and at NC State. Yet there are losses to Cuse and Miami there. Perhaps if they did not have 2 Q3 loses which include another loss to Syracuse and a big stinker to Missouri a legit case could be made. SOR lags at 55 but the biggest red flag here is the disatrous non conference sos of 343 which shows at 143 WVU as their best OOC win. The final 2 are just Q3 games with NC St and FSU. Will host in the NIT first round.
(84) SYRACUSE 19-10: For shits and giggles there must be a Cuse fan out there trying to make a case for the Orange inclusion. How the mighty have fallen that a 19-10 record from the ACC and from this program cannot even get them in realistic at large contention...and that is with a win over North Carolina. The thing is beyond that win all there was a sweep over distant bubble Pitt and now out of contention Oregon/NC State. 2-7 in Q1 and 4-2 in Q3 for a meager 6-9 in Q1/2. The Q3 loss to Florida State is not terrible. I will admit the SOR at 40 is pretty intriguing here. SOS at 46/94 is pretty decent. I suppose a win at Clemson may start rumors. Orange fans probably hope realignment gets them to move to the MAC for football and join the Big East for hoops.
(48) DRAKE 24-6: Finished 2nd in the MVC regular season and a legit threat to win it as well...and why not they split with Indiana State in their two meetings. 3-1 in Q1 besides the win over the Sycamores was very impressive win over Nevada and a win at Bradley. There are things here to make a case for an at large. 2-3 in Q2 is rather mundane with losses to Belmont and Northern Iowa and wins over Bradley and Southern Illinois. Ultimately though there is one Q3 loss too many....Missouri State and Steve F Austin, the Bulldogs could absorb one of thee but not two. Non conference sos of 293 is no bueno.
(67) BUTLER 16-13: Beating hapless De Paul does not erase the damage the Bulldogs did to their profile for most of February. 6 losses in 7 games pushing their loss total up to 13 including an unwieldly 7-13 vs Q1/2 and 9-13 in Q1/2/3. That is just too much losing that cannot be overcome given their finale will be a benign Q2 home game with Xavier. Too bad for them because there are some great wins here...at Creighton, Marquette, Texas Tech, Boise, Nova.
(45) CINCINNATI 17-12: Ended a 3 game losing skid that moved them from the last 2 in/last 2 out line to the nether regions of the bubble by knocking off Kansas State. Unfortunately for Cats, too much damage has been done to their profile. Even a win at Oklahoma will not be enough to resuscitate their hopes. Wins at BYU and Texas Tech plus TCU go all for naught. Maybe if they did not suffer 2 Q3 losses to Okie State and WVU and have a non conference sos of 323.
LAST FOUR BYES: MICHIGAN STATE, OKLAHOMA, FLORIDA ATLANTIC, VILLANOVA
LAST FOUR IN: UTAH, NEW MEXICO, VIRGINIA, SETON HALL
FIRST FOUR OUT: SAINT JOHN'S, WAKE FOREST, PROVIDENCE, IOWA
NEXT FOUR OUT: COLORADO, JAMES MADISON, TEXAS A & M, MISSISSIPPI
ON DECK: KANSAS STATE, MEMPHIS, OHIO STATE, PITTSBURGH
There are 32 AQs (automatic qualifiers from each conference). * denotes projected AQ. There are 36 at large bids. I am projecting 24 at large locks leaving 12 available spots in the field. I am projecting 28 schools competing for those 12 open spots. Locks are all the way up through the Eight seeds.
ONE SEEDS
- CONNECTICUT*
- PURDUE*
- HOUSTON*
- TENNESSEE*
TWO SEEDS
- ARIZONA*
- NORTH CAROLINA*
- IOWA STATE
- MARQUETTE
THREE SEEDS
- BAYLOR
- ALABAMA
- KANSAS
- CREIGHTON
FOUR SEEDS
- DUKE
- ILLINOIS
- AUBURN
- SAN DIEGO STATE
FIVE SEEDS
- KENTUCKY
- BYU
- CLEMSON
- WISCONSIN
SIX SEEDS
- DAYTON
- SOUTH CAROLINA
- SAINT MARY'S*
- WASHINGTON STATE
SEVEN SEEDS
- UTAH STATE*
- FLORIDA
- BOISE STATE
- TEXAS TECH
EIGHT SEEDS
- TEXAS
- NORTHWESTERN
- COLORADO STATE
- GONZAGA
NINE SEEDS
(40) NEVADA 23-6: Wolfpack spent the past few weeks hanging around the last 4-8 in but got some separation with a thrilling road win at Colorado State. That gave them their 5th Q1 win and completed a sweep of the Rams. 5-5 in Q1 is very impressive and includes a road win at league leading Utah State, home win over San Diego State and the requisite OOC win of note over TCU. A couple of things perhaps holding them back in seeding will be the Q3 loss to Wyoming, the fact that 11 of their wins are in Q4, their non conference sos is just 259. Do note the Pack was swept by New Mexico including a 34 point loss which likely dinged the metrics. A trip to Boise State and a home game with UNLV remain. Getting that UNLV game will make it academic but still think their resume can overcome a 0-2 finish.
(32) MISSISSIPPI STATE 19-10: Bulldogs had a rough week blowing a home win over Kentucky and then not really competitive in a 15 point loss at Auburn. Their overall metrics still holding up and its matched by a solid SOR at 36 but still a tricky week to come. A road trip to desperate but fading Texas A&M and a home clash with South Carolina. MSU would do themselves well to get one of these games to keep them above the fray of the last 8 in. Their win over Tennessee keeps looking better and better. Just 3-7 in Q1, shows wins over Auburn and a neutral court win OOC over Washington State. There is an additional Q2 win over Northwestern....4-2 in Q2 for 7-9 in Q1/2 is okay but not great. Note the bad loss at Georgia Tech has slipped back into Q2 for now. There is a bad Q4 loss at home to Southern. Road mark at 2-7 is a red flag. Similar in some ways to the Nebraska profile but the difference is the Bulldogs did get those non conference wins of note.
(38) TCU 19-10: Horned Frogs had a 0-2 week losing at home to Baylor and then on the road to BYU. No shame in those losses. TCU holds a superlative win over Houston this year that counts as two or even 3 wins. There is a needed quality road win at Baylor. Yet TCU is a woeful 3-10 in Q1 (that other win was just at Kansas State barely a Q1). Q2 is better at 4-0 putting them even as the 7-10 mark Q1/2 is still a bit shaky. There are two additional wins there over teams in the field Texas Tech and Oklahoma. That non conference sos of 326 is ugly and their best OOC win is just Arizona State. Even with some warts, TCU looks very close but it is about taking care of business and avoiding stinging Q3 losses in their final 2 of at WVU, home to UCF.
(43) NEBRASKA 21-9: If only the Huskers could play all their games at home. Nebby ran their home mark to 18-1 with a fairly easy win over Rutgers last night. Earlier in the week, a loss at Ohio State dropped their road record to just 2-8 and that is one of two red flags that continue to dog a profile that normally would be a NCAA lock. 4-7 in Q1 and 3-2 in Q2 are okay but not great numbers. There are no bad losses here. Nebraska has a feather in their cap win over Purdue that is worth 2 or 3 wins. They have 3 additional wins over schools projected in the field....Wisconsin, Northwestern and Michigan State. Yet all were at home. Their best road win was at Kansas State a team who has slipped from serious at large contention. For Nebby, a trip to horrid Michigan presents a danger. Win the game and they are in no question. Lose the game and not only are they accruing a bad loss (may actually be just a Q2) but it would cement their status as a hometown hero. Could they be punished dramatically by having to play in the first four games? That is a real possibility when you take into consideration their other red flag of a non conference sos of 314. Remember conference standings are not a factor and while I am dubious to how much weight conference tourney performance will matter to the selection committee, winning neutral sites games can only help them and their seedin
TEN SEEDS
(22) MICHIGAN STATE 17-12: Oh Izzo what have you done? The Spartans did not look all that bad in challenging Purdue on Saturday night but that makes 3 losses in a row following the debacles at home vs Iowa and Ohio State. Thank god Sparty has that NET metric of 22 in their favor largely in part to their excellent sos numbers at 12/41. It is not matched by the SOR which is at a worrisome 47. 4-8 in Quad 1 and 4-4 in Q2 makes for 8-12 in Q1/2 but digging into these wins, they have only 3 wins vs teams projected in field....Baylor, Illinois and Indiana State. The loss total now is in the bulky range. I get the SOS is strong but schools who get at large bids with 14 losses usually have 5-6 quality wins to back them up and that is not the case here. Could Sparty play their way out of the tournament. Yes it is possible. They will not dance at 17-15. The next game at Northwestern is a must win. For one it will be another win vs a team in field, secondly gives them another Q2 win and most important probably quells any notion of missing the tourney although first four is still in play if they split. Fail to do that and the finale at Indiana is going to be very very interesting.
(41) OKLAHOMA 19-10: Sooners suddenly find themselves vulnerable after having dropped 4 of 5 (the one win was a 2 pt OT win over lowly OK St). Yes all the losses were to projected top 4 seeds including an oh so close 2 point loss to Houston on Saturday but at some point you have to start pulling off one of these games. Sooners are 4-9 in Q1 and 4-1 in Q2 for a solid 8-10 yet they only have 2 wins vs teams in the field....home wins over Iowa State and BYU. Their biggest non conference win Providence has slipped out of the field for now. There are no bad losses yet non conference sos is 280. The SOR is helping them at 30 as is no loss outside Q2 in fact just 1 loss outside Q1. They had better win the home game with Cincy next because if not then the trip to Texas becomes a play in or out game for them.
(35) FLORIDA ATLANTIC 22-7: Jekyll and Hyde resume for the Owls. That win over Arizona keeps giving and giving. Unfortunately the Owls have wobbled a bit otherwise. A Q4 loss to Bryant plus a straddling Q3/4 loss to Florida Gulf Coast. Their play in the AAC has not been as sharp as anticipated, currently 12-4 in the 10th rated conference in the country. USF has the AQ from the AAC for now and already has a win over the Owls. Owls also lost AAC games to Memphis, Charlotte and UAB. 1-2 in Q1 but a better 6-3 in Q2 but those non conference wins over Butler, Texas A&M, and Va Tech have faded substantially in the last couple of weeks. This is a profile in decline. Owls need to win their last two at NorthTexas and home to Memphis. Their non conference sos of 51 is strong and I know its not suppose to matter but that human element recalling their run last year is likely going to factor in and they can justify it by pointing to the Arizona win. Winning the AAC tourney though should bump them to the 8-9 line. Any further losses and its not unimaginable they could slip into the first four games.
(26) VILLANOVA 17-12: Cats have done it. The most scandalous profile of 2024 has busted their way into the field. The Q3 losses to Penn, Drexel and St Joes do stick out like sore thumbs but ultimately it is hard to ignore the quality wins here along with their strong metrics and that is likely to rule the day. Nova's win at Providence was their 4th Q1 win completing a sweep of the Friars and also knocked them out of the field for now. 4-8 in Q1 is led by those a duo of OOC wins that no one on the bubble has...North Carolina and Texas Tech. In league play, Nova has a highlight win at Creighton. 6-1 in Q2 pushes their Q1/2 to a strong 10-9. A 4th win vs team in field: Seton Hall and bubble Memphis. SOS strong stuff at 23/81. Still with a bulkly loss total of 12, Nova has to split this weeks games and it will not be easy. A trip to bubble Seton Hall first. Likely a win and you are in game but a loss would not necessarily knock either out. Nova hosts Creighton so a 2nd chance for a Q1 win. Should Nova lose both they head to the BE tourney at 17-14 and that is a bit of trouble. Tough to get bids with 15 losses and thats when one of those Q3 missteps will come into play. Keep in mind they have jumpstarted St John's profile since they Johnnies swept them.
ELEVEN SEEDS
(29) INDIANA STATE*25-5: Sycamores wrapped up the Missouri Valley regular season title and are the projected AQ heading into the MVC tourney. Thh overall NET at 29 is their best asset but do note their SOR at 38 is also very good for a mid major. MVC is the 9th rated conference this year, rated ahead of both the AAC and WCC who likely land 2 bids. While that would normally be good news for ISU's at large chances, the truth is the impact wins are not on the resume. 1-3 in Q1 but that win was at Bradley. 4-3 in Q2 would seem okay but the best win is Drake and another win over Bradley. Those are not the kind of wins that cut the mustard in a year where there are seem to be a lot of bloated power 6 conferences lurking with high end wins.
(70) RICHMOND* 22-7: Spiders continue to spin a web atop the A10 standings giving them the AQ. Their resume is highlighted by a win over Dayton, their only Q 1 win (1-3). On paper the 6-2 Q2 mark looks good on paper but do wins over Loyola, Duquense, VCU, UNLV move the needle. The 2 Q3 losses to Charlotte and Wichita State are not necessarily that bad on paper but remove them and that would be a NCAA resume. Not saying they do not have a chance at an large but its going to be tough. Dayton's cache has fallen a bit and there is not another A10 school with a national profile. The committe has been favorable to the A10 in handing them second or third bids in the past and they are the 8th rated conference so I suppose winning out and a trip to the finals losing to Dayton putting them at 26-8 will get them a look.
(68) SETON HALL 18-11: Pirates did not give a good account of themselves this week in brutal beatdowns at Creighton and UConn, the latter by 30 points on national tv. If the eye test exists, they failed miserably. How much juice can the Pirates squeeze from being one of only 3 schools to beat UConn and also their win over Marquette. With PC out of the field, SHU is down to just 2 wins over the field. They did sweep St Johns who is right on the cut line and that is a positive. Pirates at 68 in the NET are in trouble territory. Yes there have been schools selected with poor NETs but usually they have multiple quality wins. While the Pirates are 5-7 in Q1, that looks better on paper when you realize two of them were road wins to mediocre Xavier and Butler. 3-3 in Q2 shows a loss to bubble Iowa and a straddling Q2/3 loss to USC. There is an additional Q3 home loss to Rutgers. SHU simply did not get it done in non conference play with their best win being Missouri. Not good when you compare them to Nova/PC/St Johns who all have at least one quality non conference victory. The home game vs Nova this week means more to the Pirates than it does to the Wildcats. With a game vs horrid De Paul left, the Pirates are in must win mode here or they will have to rely upon a Big East tourney run and its no given the selection committee will consider those games.
(49) VIRGINIA 21-9: Cavs are teetering. Losers of 3 of last 4, they were held in the 40s in all of those losses. Their profile just absorbed a 73-48 loss to Duke on Saturday. The reality of the situation is with just one game left vs Georgia Tech that will not do anything but harm them further, UVA is skidding out of the tourney. Do not know how much more they can squeeze out of a win at Clemson and a home win to Florida which make up their woeful 2-6 Q1 mark include several 20 point beatdowns. A solid 6-3 in Q1 mark helps push the Q1/2 mark to a respectable 8-9 but its filled with wins over the likes of fading Wake, Texas A&M, Va Tech. There is a bad loss to Notre Dame which qualifies as a Q2. 13 of their wins coming from Q3/4 is not so hot for a ACC school. Placing them in the field for now but well aware that the schools below them in the pecking order all have quality win opportunities in the final week that Virginia is not going to get or will not get in early ACC tourney action.
(28) NEW MEXICO 20-8: Lobos losing touch with the rest of the Mountain West projected in schools. Perhaps the only thing saving them is their strong metrics at 28 but again NET is not how they select. Their SOR of record is a flashing red light at 69. They are just 2-5 in Q1 led by their road win at Nevada and a home win over San Diego State. 3-1 in Q2 gives them a total of 5 wins vs teams in field...the thumping of Nevada, Colorado State and Utah State. Yet is beating the other top MWC schools enough to give this conference 6 schools. 5-6 in Q1/2 is not good at this level. The Lobos non conference sos is a poor 270 lower than the rest of the MW. To be fair they do have 2 nice wins over projected AQs La Tech and UC Irvine so actually they do hve 7 wins vs teams in the field. The Q3 loss to solid UNLV can be forgiven but its the Q4 home loss to Air Force that may end up being costly here. Fresno State up next is a must win but starting to think that the Lobos must win at league leading Utah State if they want to stay in the field.
(46) UTAH 18-11: Utes have scraped and scrapped their way into the field as the last team in but it is a very very precarious position. Its not a spectacular profile but it does just enough to check the boxes. I understand and stress that conferences are not looked at per se. The Pac 12 is the 6th rated conference in the country. The idea that the 7th rated conference the Mountain West would get 6 and the Pac 12 only 2 (Arizona and Washington State) does not seem realistic. 4-7 in Q1 and 8-10 mark in Q1/2 is solid. Biggest wins were out of conference....neutral site wins over BYU and a win at St Marys. Those are the kind of wins OOC and on the road the committee is looking for. Additionally there is a split with Washington State and a split with Colorado. A win over bubble Wake. Head to head not a thing but do note the Utes have a loss to surging profile St Johns so have to see how things play out there. A couple of messy losses to Stanford and getting swept by Arizona State..one of which counts as Q3 their only blemish out of Q2. SOS numbers are in their favor at 37/27. That is the kind of thing that could work in their favor vs a Seton Hall or a St Johns but SOR at 53 does not. Last two is a trip to the Oregon schools and they need both.
TWELVE SEEDS
(79)SOUTH FLORIDA* 22-5: Bulls are the projected AQ from the AAC and have already wrapped up the regular season title. Doing a fine job in league with the departure of Houston, USF has wins over Memphis in Q1, FAU and SMU in Q2. Only conference loss was Q2 to UAB. However very very slim hopes for an at large due to a lot of red flags. For starters the non conference sos of 322 is garbage. There are two Q4 losses at home to Maine/Central Michigan. Just 1-0 in Q1, 5-3 in Q2. Only win vs team in field is FAU. 16 of their 22 wins coming from Q3/4. if they can win last two and make AAC finals where they lose to FAU I suppose there is a chance they could get considered at 26-6. Do note that AP Top 25 is irrelevant. They can be ranked 19 and skipped over.
(51)PRINCETON*21-3: Tigers move to Ivy AQ after their win over Cornell. Very good NET that could lead them to an 11 seed but Princeton must win the Ivy tourney. There will not be an at large from the Ivy. Not with Princeton's resume with zero Q1 wins or games even. A 3-3 mark in Q2 with wins over Rutgers, Hofstra, and Duquense do not do anything. That loss to St Joes hurts. Cannot get around 18 of 21 win in Q3/4.
(55) GRAND CANYON* 25-4: Lopes are the projected AQ from the WAC. Their at large chances took a major hit two weeks back with back to back losses to Tarleton State and Abilene Christian. The former was just a Q2 loss but the Q3 almost Q4 to Abilene is likely a bridge to far. Its a shame because GC does have a win over San Diego State. There is also a win over San Fransisco and Liberty in Q2 and a Q3 win over CUSA AQ La Tech. 22 of their 25 wins are from Q3 and 4 and 15 alone in Quad 4.
(56) MC NEESE STATE* 22-3: Cowboys are the AQ in the Southland but their at large hopes appear rather dim. They do have a Quad 1 win over VCU and 2-2 in Q2 with wins over UAB and Michigan. That nasty Q4 loss to SE Louisiana is probably one too many on a resume where 16 wins are coming from Quad 4.
THIRTEEN SEED
APPALACHIAN STATE*
SAMFORD*
LOUISIANA TECH*
UC IRVINE*
FOURTEEN SEEDS
AKRON*
VERMONT*
CHARLESTON*
MOREHEAD STATE*
FIFTEEN SEEDS
HIGH POINT*
EASTERN WASHINGTON*
OAKLAND*
COLGATE*
SIXTEEN SEEDS
EASTERN KENTUCKY*
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE*
QUINNIPIAC*
NORFOLK STATE*
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE*
GRAMBLING STATE*
BUBBLE OUT
(39) SAINT JOHN'S 17-12: The Redmen did not play over the weekend but not sure any school in the country had a better boost to their profile than they did. Little movements here and there can wildly alter metrics. The Johnnies now have 5 Q 1 wins....5-9 with the improvements of Utah and Villanova metrics and in performance. The win over Creighton two weeks ago was absolutely necessary as it revived a resume that was barren. Now they have 4 wins vs teams in the field and stand ohsoclose with Utah for that last spot in. As I said head to head is not considered but this is a close one. Having those 2 wins over Nova with Nova so precariously slotted above them is a nice weapon. Unfortunately on the flip side, they were swept by Seton Hall. 4-2 in Q2 makes it 9-11 in Q1/2. Providence is still lurking right there and SJU split with them. There is one bad loss at home to Michigan in Q3 that they will certainly want back to produce a clean profile. SOS of 15 overall very good but the 182 non conference just below average. SOR at 46 and Net 39 is a solid combo to have. The issue is the next 2 are at Georgetow and De Paul. Both would seem autowins. Any loss would eliminate their chances as they are already at a bulkly loss total of 12. Yet those wins while padding their win total will likely drop their metrics somewhat. Definitely rooting for Nova to keep winning.
(31) WAKE FOREST 18-11: Demon Deacons appeared set after a win over Duke but followed that up with losses at Notre Dame and Va Tech. Now technically those are Q2 and Q1 road losses respectively but no one in their right mind will tell you that those are not bad losses at a time where Wake only need to take care of business against lesser to beef on their Q1/2 mark. Now just 1-6 in Q1. Their other 2 wins vs teams in the field beside Duke reside in Q2 where they are 6-5. Those are home wins over Florida and Virginia ( a split with the Cavs). There is an additional quality win over bubble Pitt but that loss to Notre Dame add onto questionable Q2 losses to Georgia, FSU and LSU. 7-11 isnt a great mark vs Q1/2. 2 other red flags are the 2-9 road mark and 243 non conference sos...pair that with just one Q1 win and that spells trouble. A home game with Ga Tech up next followed by a Q1 home game v Clemson where they are in must win mode. That could be just enough to lift their profile up but keep in mind their SOR is way down at 58 now.
(62) PROVIDENCE 18-11: Things are not going good for the Friars. The Bryce Hopkins injury situation is playing out much like the Mawot Mag injury did for Rutgers. Friars were 11-2 before he was injured in the SHU game and have gone 7-9 since. They did somehow manage their biggest win of the season vs Creighton without him but its clear they are not the same team and the selection committe is not too foregiving. It is a shame because 5-8 vs Quad 1 is a very solid mark. In addition to the Creighton win, there are wins vs Marquette and a nice OOC one over Wisconsin. PC split with both the Hall and SHU. The loss at home to Nova on Saturday really hurt as Nova completed the season sweep but worse yet, the Friars dropped 3 games below 500 at 8-11 in Q1/2/3. Losses to the likes of Kansas State and Xavier in Q2 proving costly. 10 of their 18 wins in Quad 4 is a huge red flag and the OOC SOS of 250 stinks. Next up is a trip to Georgetown which can only hurt them and then a home clash with Connecticut to end the season. Win and in seems pretty easy there but seems like an almost impossible task right?
(57) IOWA 18-12: The Hawkeyes are getting hot at the right time and now face a possible win and in situation as they host Illinois on Sunday. For now its a nice profile that needs more. The win at Northwestern certainly put them in position to have a serious chance. A win vs Illinois likely puts them over the top. Just 3-8 currently in Q1 with the wins at Michigan State and NW highlighting with a home win over Wisconsin. Quad 2 is more foregiving at 5-3 to put them at 8-11 in Q1/2. Wins there include non conference vs bubble Seton Hall and Nebraska...that is 5 wins in total vs teams in the field. There is one bad Q3 loss to Michigan early on that they really would want back. SOS stuff is decent at 16/98 and SOR at 43 is better than their NET. Big stakes on Sunday for Fran.
(30) COLORADO 20-9: I keep saying every week how unimpressed I am with the Buffaloes resume yet every week they inch closer to moving into the field. Its more of a case of what they have not done rather than what they have done. At 30 they are the highest rated NET team not projected in the field. Their SOR might be more appropriate at a middling 50. Just one Quad 1 (1-5) and that is barely in Q1, a road win at mediocre Washington. Now in Quad 2, they managed to go 7-4 which brings their Q1/2 mark up to a mirage at 8-9. This is where we start to see some nice wins....Washington State, Utah and A10 AQ Richmond. Yet there are also 4 losses to drek like UCLA. FSU, Cal, and ASU...3 of those losses on the road and their road mark is a paltry 2-7. Their SOS is 253. So while their metrics might be better than Utah, you can see that Utah's 8-10 plus their strong schedule strength gives them a nod for now given they split the regular season series. If they want any chance of staying alive they have to sweep the Oregon schools in the last 2. Not sure how the selection committee will deal with conference tourney performance this year so need to watch that going forward in the Pac 12 tourney.
(52) JAMES MADISON 27-3: The Dukes ended the season in the Sunbelt on a 10 game win streak and will be the 2nd seed to top seeded nemesis Appalachian State. ASU handed JMU 2 losses by a combined 10 points. Not much shame there..one was a Q1, the other a Q2. Their only Q1 win was at Michigan State, a win that still looks strong even with the Spartans sagging a bit. The Southern Miss loss in Q3 is costly but are we judging mid major so harshly that a 27-3 team..possibly 29-4 on Selection Sunday should be passed over for a 13-14 loss bloated school from a power 6. JMU sos non conference at 330 and that 20 of their 27 wins are in Q4 are hard to explain away. Yet the one time they faced a big school they won. On the flip side, perhaps a school that loses to Appalachian State 3x does not deserve a bid. Nonetheless they will definitley be considered as one of the strongest low to mid major at large schools on the board.
(54) TEXAS A & M: 16-13: It was only a Q2 road win at not in the field Georgia but it was so necessary to quell the bleeding on their resume after 5 straight losses. The Aggies at least can see a path. With games in Q2 at home vs Mississippi State and on the road at Ole Miss, A&M is is must win mode. The bulky loss total is the biggest issue since eventually in the SEC tourney they will take on a 14 loss putting them in sketchy territory. First to address, the bad. There are 4 Q3 losses here and not sure I have ever seen a team with that many get selected as an at large. Ole Miss is close to moving to Q2. Losses to LSU, Arkansas and worst of all Vandy are inexcusable. 11-13 vs Q1/2/3 can be helped by those 2 wins to end the year. 5-6 in Q1 is excellent...wins here over Tennessee/Kentucky and non conference vs Iowa State. 4-6 in Q2 with a win over Florida. Yet losses to Memphis and Arkansas here are more missteps. Aggies have strong sos stuff working in their favor at 13/22, unfortunately that SOR of 65 is below the Mendoza line.
(78) MISSISSIPPI 20-9: Rebels metrics have cratered. Started out 15-1 and now have lost 8 of their last 13 and do not even qualify as a Q 1 road game or Q2 home game for their opponents. They have lost 6 of 8 and the only wins in the stretch were to an awful Missouri. Paying attention yet. Their quad stuff is pathetic. 2-7 in Q1 but neither team in the field at A&M and at UCF. The 3-2 in Q2 does show their two wins over teams in the field...Florida and Mississippi State. There is an additional win over Memphis but this is not getting them into the field. 15 of their 20 wins coming from Q3/4 and you might guess the non conference sos is horrific at 324. At best you can say no bad losses and somehow the SOR is at 35. Last 2 of at Georgia and home to Texas A&M are Q2s they have to win but its going to be hard to see a path to overcome their negatives.
(73) KANSAS STATE 17-12: Wildcats barely hanging in and were not helped by the Q1 road loss at UCF (not a tourney team). Yet with games at Kansas and home to Iowa State left to go, they cannot be counted out yet. KSU has 4 Q wins in its 4-6 mark and they all are legit type wins...Baylor, Kansas, BYU and Villanova. Its what the Cats failed to do in Q2 as to why they are languising out of the field. Just 3-6 there with losses to USC, Miami and OK State. There is a win there over Providence that is solid but 7-12 in that Q1/2 grouping is not passable. Now add in 2 Q1 wins and its likely they are dancing. Whether they can pull that sweep off is another story. What if they do beat ISU but fall at Kansas...would have 5 strong Q1 wins in the top conference in the country. Ultimately though they would end with 14 losses and it might be one too many. Non conference sos is not good at 221, SOR at 56 and road mark at 2-7 all conspiring against.
(71) MEMPHIS 22-8: Tigers have reeled off 4 in a row to keep hanging around but appear to be distinct longshots. For starters, the AAC has sunk to the 10th rated conferences. USF is the projected AQ and FAU is next in line for the at large and its a wide gap to Memphis. AAC will not get 3. Besides their home Q2 win over FAU, much of their good was done in their non conference play. They beat Clemson, Virginia and won at Texas A&M and VCU. Non conference sos a respectable 70
9. 3-2 in Q1/3-3 Q2 isnt all that bad. That Q4 home loss to Rice left a permanent scar on their profile. Throwing in a Q3 loss to Tulane and Q2 losses to UAB and North Texas and you see why the Tigers are having trouble nailing down 3rd in the league and might fall back as far as 6th. Any hope they still have rests with winning at Florida Alantic in the season finale...a game the Owls want to absolutely lock up a bid before the AAC tourney and then reaching the finals of the AAC with FAU as their opponent again.
(59) OHIO STATE 18-12: Somehow someway the Buckeyes are here. In a battle to stay out of first day games in the Big 10 tourney, OSU has picked up 3 of their 5 Q1/2 wins in just the past few weeks...but there in lies the issue. They have a pair of wins over Purdue and Alabama among the finest in the country. Wins at Michigan State and home to Nebby do move the needle...4 wins vs teams in the field. The issue is they are just 5-11 in Q1/2 and that is simply a non starter for the selection committee. That means 13 of their 18 wins coming from Q3/4. Pretty bad for a Power 6 school. That Q3 loss to Indiana does not seem bad but it still would not help the problem that they just did win enough or schedule tough enough reflected by that 254 OOC SOS. A win in a Q2 game against mediocre Rutgers will not change the resume. Too little too late yet Ohio State looks to be on target to host a NIT home game.
(44) PITTSBURGH 19-10: A pretty decent record to go along with a NET of 44 but just how realistic are their chances. That win at Duke is a very fine win. There is a win at Virginia. Those two make up the 2 Q1 wins (just 2-6). After that the 5-2 is not bad to make 7-8 in Q1/2...wins over Wake and at NC State. Yet there are losses to Cuse and Miami there. Perhaps if they did not have 2 Q3 loses which include another loss to Syracuse and a big stinker to Missouri a legit case could be made. SOR lags at 55 but the biggest red flag here is the disatrous non conference sos of 343 which shows at 143 WVU as their best OOC win. The final 2 are just Q3 games with NC St and FSU. Will host in the NIT first round.
(84) SYRACUSE 19-10: For shits and giggles there must be a Cuse fan out there trying to make a case for the Orange inclusion. How the mighty have fallen that a 19-10 record from the ACC and from this program cannot even get them in realistic at large contention...and that is with a win over North Carolina. The thing is beyond that win all there was a sweep over distant bubble Pitt and now out of contention Oregon/NC State. 2-7 in Q1 and 4-2 in Q3 for a meager 6-9 in Q1/2. The Q3 loss to Florida State is not terrible. I will admit the SOR at 40 is pretty intriguing here. SOS at 46/94 is pretty decent. I suppose a win at Clemson may start rumors. Orange fans probably hope realignment gets them to move to the MAC for football and join the Big East for hoops.
(48) DRAKE 24-6: Finished 2nd in the MVC regular season and a legit threat to win it as well...and why not they split with Indiana State in their two meetings. 3-1 in Q1 besides the win over the Sycamores was very impressive win over Nevada and a win at Bradley. There are things here to make a case for an at large. 2-3 in Q2 is rather mundane with losses to Belmont and Northern Iowa and wins over Bradley and Southern Illinois. Ultimately though there is one Q3 loss too many....Missouri State and Steve F Austin, the Bulldogs could absorb one of thee but not two. Non conference sos of 293 is no bueno.
(67) BUTLER 16-13: Beating hapless De Paul does not erase the damage the Bulldogs did to their profile for most of February. 6 losses in 7 games pushing their loss total up to 13 including an unwieldly 7-13 vs Q1/2 and 9-13 in Q1/2/3. That is just too much losing that cannot be overcome given their finale will be a benign Q2 home game with Xavier. Too bad for them because there are some great wins here...at Creighton, Marquette, Texas Tech, Boise, Nova.
(45) CINCINNATI 17-12: Ended a 3 game losing skid that moved them from the last 2 in/last 2 out line to the nether regions of the bubble by knocking off Kansas State. Unfortunately for Cats, too much damage has been done to their profile. Even a win at Oklahoma will not be enough to resuscitate their hopes. Wins at BYU and Texas Tech plus TCU go all for naught. Maybe if they did not suffer 2 Q3 losses to Okie State and WVU and have a non conference sos of 323.
LAST FOUR BYES: MICHIGAN STATE, OKLAHOMA, FLORIDA ATLANTIC, VILLANOVA
LAST FOUR IN: UTAH, NEW MEXICO, VIRGINIA, SETON HALL
FIRST FOUR OUT: SAINT JOHN'S, WAKE FOREST, PROVIDENCE, IOWA
NEXT FOUR OUT: COLORADO, JAMES MADISON, TEXAS A & M, MISSISSIPPI
ON DECK: KANSAS STATE, MEMPHIS, OHIO STATE, PITTSBURGH
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