BACATOLOGY: 2/20 NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS...UPDATE RUTGERS NOW A 9 SEED AS OF 2/24

[NewJerseyHawk]

The key number is and always will be avoiding 13 regular season losses as your total. It's not overly complicated.

It becomes extremely difficult to make the NCAAs with 13 regular season losses, unless your schedule is a Top 10 national level slate.

If RU splits the last 2 games, RU would finish with 12 regular season losses. The most ideal situation in terms of resume is to win the Minnesota road game, to avoid a Q4 loss, but the Quad 1/2 resume is extremely important.

A team like Michigan or Duke/UNC can probably get to 14 regular season losses because their status will get the committee's benefit of the doubt, but you are running to risk of a bid-stealer like Villanova in the Big East tournament taking a spot away from a Last 2 in.

RU is a 7/8 today, they have a pretty strong case after tonight's win on the road, mixed with a "neutral-home MSG", a road win at Wisconsin, Purdue and Northwestern......and defeating red hot Maryland and Indiana only strengthens the case for a 7 more than 9 seed.

 

[kcg88]

Bad weekend for bubble intrigue honestly. UNC and Arizona State got big wins but that was about it. Seton Hall, Texas Tech, Penn State, New Mexico all lost monster home game opportunities... the latter three by a combined five points by the way.

UNC, Arizona State, Michigan, and maaaaaybe Utah State are the only four schools with a clear chance at playing their way in. I don't count Clemson because does a win at a reeling Virginia even move the needle all that much at this point? Charleston could move in through osmosis but that's not really playing their way in.

 

[kcg88]

By the way, the madness starts tomorrow. Our first win-or-go-home games with the Atlantic Sun tournament first round at 7:00 pm (two games).

 

[goru7]

Bad weekend for bubble intrigue honestly. UNC and Arizona State got big wins but that was about it. Seton Hall, Texas Tech, Penn State, New Mexico all lost monster home game opportunities... the latter three by a combined five points by the way.

UNC, Arizona State, Michigan, and maaaaaybe Utah State are the only four schools with a clear chance at playing their way in. I don't count Clemson because does a win at a reeling Virginia even move the needle all that much at this point? Charleston could move in through osmosis but that's not really playing their way in.

Clemson can definitely get themselves back in with a blowout win against Virginia. Blowing out 2 NCAA teams at this stage gets everybody ‘s attention even if you are down on the ACC. I think they are first next 4 out now and with the Virginia win they go to into first 4 out range. Another win to end the regular season and an ACC tourney win gets them to Dayton

 

[kcg88]

We are in now dufus. You have no idea what you are talking about

lol imagine coming into this thread and telling bac he has no idea about bracketology

 

[mugrat86]

lol imagine coming into this thread and telling bac he has no idea about bracketology

The guy know shit. Better than 50/50? What a joke I would put it at 90% now and another win puts it at 100%. Only at 90% now because if there is a ton of upsets

 

[G- RUnit]

Clemson blew out Cuse and N C State back to back looking good doing it. Peaking at right time. Who knows?

 

[G- RUnit]

The key number is and always will be avoiding 13 regular season losses as your total. It's not overly complicated.

It becomes extremely difficult to make the NCAAs with 13 regular season losses, unless your schedule is a Top 10 national level slate.

If RU splits the last 2 games, RU would finish with 12 regular season losses. The most ideal situation in terms of resume is to win the Minnesota road game, to avoid a Q4 loss, but the Quad 1/2 resume is extremely important.

A team like Michigan or Duke/UNC can probably get to 14 regular season losses because their status will get the committee's benefit of the doubt, but you are running to risk of a bid-stealer like Villanova in the Big East tournament taking a spot away from a Last 2 in.

RU is a 7/8 today, they have a pretty strong case after tonight's win on the road, mixed with a "neutral-home MSG", a road win at Wisconsin, Purdue and Northwestern......and defeating red hot Maryland and Indiana only strengthens the case for a 7 more than 9 seed.

Avoid 8/9 at all costs. Rather be a 10 if we drop.

 

[RUDead]

We are in now dufus. You have no idea what you are talking about

Did Bac bang your girlfriend in college?

 

[mugrat86]

Did Bac bang your girlfriend in college?

He wishes

 

[goru7]

The guy know shit. Better than 50/50? What a joke I would put it at 90% now and another win puts it at 100%. Only at 90% now because if there is a ton of upsets

Common man, you are not new here. BAC has been the resident expert on the NCAA tourney selections for years. He is usually very accurate. Some idiot bracketologists had slid us to an 11 seed before this win. It is a huge win but if we go 0-3 to end the year and with bid stealers every year and the bubble teams , a few of them have gotten hot , nothing is guaranteed. We have 3 Quad 3 losses , unfortunately that matters. Now I think we are safe and a 9 seed now , maybe an 8 , and BAC feels the same , but it is not 90% guaranteed with 3 to play. They are some crazy people out there and the Committee has never given us the benefit of the doubt the last 3 years.

 

[RUtrumpet92]

Correct. Head to head tiebreakers over Penn State and Wisconsin in the very unfortunate possibility that we are all tied at 10-10.

Incorrect, according to the mred B1G tiebreaker. There is one scenario where 10-10 Rutgers is the 11 seed. It is very unlikely.

We lose out, Nebraska and Wisconsin win out. Iowa loses out. Four way tie at 10-10 and we lose the ties.

 

[bac2therac]

Common man, you are not new here. BAC has been the resident expert on the NCAA tourney selections for years. He is usually very accurate. Some idiot bracketologists had slid us to an 11 seed before this win. It is a huge win but if we go 0-3 to end the year and with bid stealers every year and the bubble teams , a few of them have gotten hot , nothing is guaranteed. We have 3 Quad 3 losses , unfortunately that matters. Now I think we are safe and a 9 seed now , maybe an 8 , and BAC feels the same , but it is not 90% guaranteed with 3 to play. They are some crazy people out there and the Committee has never given us the benefit of the doubt the last 3 years.

correct, its only because 18-14 is a sketchy mark just 4 game above 500 and have 4 Q3 losses or 3 Q3 losses and 1 Q4 loss plus there is 300 plus non conference sos. You never want to be near that last 4 and while RU might still be more likely to make it, there can be bid stealers that can take it away...and it only takes one school

 

[bac2therac]

The guy know shit. Better than 50/50? What a joke I would put it at 90% now and another win puts it at 100%. Only at 90% now because if there is a ton of upsets

i love my stalker

 

[bac2therac]

Bad weekend for bubble intrigue honestly. UNC and Arizona State got big wins but that was about it. Seton Hall, Texas Tech, Penn State, New Mexico all lost monster home game opportunities... the latter three by a combined five points by the way.

UNC, Arizona State, Michigan, and maaaaaybe Utah State are the only four schools with a clear chance at playing their way in. I don't count Clemson because does a win at a reeling Virginia even move the needle all that much at this point? Charleston could move in through osmosis but that's not really playing their way in.

wouldnt rule out some crazy stuff in the ACC tourney again

 

[kcg88]

wouldnt rule out some crazy stuff in the ACC tourney again

VaTech, Clemson, and Wake Forest all drawing live.

Villanova looks like a player in the Big East with the right draw. Not sold on Providence, Nova embarrassed Creighton, and Xavier still banged up.

Pac 12 will be dicey again because the semifinals are guaranteed to have a bid thief in the mix.

 

[bac2therac]

VaTech, Clemson, and Wake Forest all drawing live.

Villanova looks like a player in the Big East with the right draw. Not sold on Providence, Nova embarrassed Creighton, and Xavier still banged up.

Pac 12 will be dicey again because the semifinals are guaranteed to have a bid thief in the mix.

yeah we already saw asu, colorado showing they can play toe to toe. oregon utah do have wins over one of the top 2 as well and its always crazy there

 

[fatsam98]

likely 9 but have to see when everything is scrubbed, wouldnt rule out last 8.

Bracket Dave has us as the first 9 seed this morning

 

[kcg88]

More intrigue tonight than the usual Monday...

Baylor at Oklahoma State
West Virginia at Iowa State

Can WVU or Oklahoma State get their 17th win? Okie State probably needs 18 but a home win over a 2 or 3 seed in Baylor would carry a lot of weight. They haven't been able to get it done against the top of the Big 12: 0-7 against Kansas, Kansas State, and Baylor. This is their last swing before the conference tournament.

West Virginia has lost 4 of their past 5 but Iowa State is scuffling too, losing 5 of their past 6. The more I look at their resume the less I like it. They also have struck out against the top of the Big 12 though they do have a home game against Kansas State to close out the year. I've said all year 17-14 is the magic number for them... but I wouldn't want to be 17-15 (losing the first game of the B12 tournament) if I were them.

For a Big 12 team you'd almost rather be a 7-10 seed in the conference tournament than the 6 seed because as a 7-10 you have a chance to pad your win total against Oklahoma or Texas Tech, whereas the 6 seed is likely to get stuck facing Baylor.

Elsewhere Nevada (at Wyoming) and UNC (at Florida State) need to avoid landmines. Nevada arguably still safe even with a loss, whereas it'd be a total disaster for the Heels.

Bonus: FGCU is coached by former Penn State head Pat Chambers, and their best player is former Purdue guard Isaiah Thompson. They open the A-Sun tournament against Queens University (Charlotte, NC) who is in their first year of D-1 ball.

 

[cubuffsdoug]

correct, its only because 18-14 is a sketchy mark just 4 game above 500 and have 4 Q3 losses or 3 Q3 losses and 1 Q4 loss plus there is 300 plus non conference sos. You never want to be near that last 4 and while RU might still be more likely to make it, there can be bid stealers that can take it away...and it only takes one school

The key number is and always will be avoiding 13 regular season losses as your total. It's not overly complicated.

It becomes extremely difficult to make the NCAAs with 13 regular season losses, unless your schedule is a Top 10 national level slate.

If RU splits the last 2 games, RU would finish with 12 regular season losses. The most ideal situation in terms of resume is to win the Minnesota road game, to avoid a Q4 loss, but the Quad 1/2 resume is extremely important.

A team like Michigan or Duke/UNC can probably get to 14 regular season losses because their status will get the committee's benefit of the doubt, but you are running to risk of a bid-stealer like Villanova in the Big East tournament taking a spot away from a Last 2 in.

RU is a 7/8 today, they have a pretty strong case after tonight's win on the road, mixed with a "neutral-home MSG", a road win at Wisconsin, Purdue and Northwestern......and defeating red hot Maryland and Indiana only strengthens the case for a 7 more than 9 seed.

Where would you seed Rutgers if they win the final two games of the regular season and at least the first game of the BTT?

 

[RUtrumpet92]

I'm definitely hoping to see the two Big 12 bubblers take the L tonight. I doubt UNC will do us that favor too.

They showed a stat in the post game that the Sun Belt and Atlantic Sun conferences are up with the B1G this year in close finishes. I love this time of year for hoops!

 

[bac2therac]

More intrigue tonight than the usual Monday...

Baylor at Oklahoma State
West Virginia at Iowa State

Can WVU or Oklahoma State get their 17th win? Okie State probably needs 18 but a home win over a 2 or 3 seed in Baylor would carry a lot of weight. They haven't been able to get it done against the top of the Big 12: 0-7 against Kansas, Kansas State, and Baylor. This is their last swing before the conference tournament.

West Virginia has lost 4 of their past 5 but Iowa State is scuffling too, losing 5 of their past 6. The more I look at their resume the less I like it. They also have struck out against the top of the Big 12 though they do have a home game against Kansas State to close out the year. I've said all year 17-14 is the magic number for them... but I wouldn't want to be 17-15 (losing the first game of the B12 tournament) if I were them.

For a Big 12 team you'd almost rather be a 7-10 seed in the conference tournament than the 6 seed because as a 7-10 you have a chance to pad your win total against Oklahoma or Texas Tech, whereas the 6 seed is likely to get stuck facing Baylor.

Elsewhere Nevada (at Wyoming) and UNC (at Florida State) need to avoid landmines. Nevada arguably still safe even with a loss, whereas it'd be a total disaster for the Heels.

Bonus: FGCU is coached by former Penn State head Pat Chambers, and their best player is former Purdue guard Isaiah Thompson. They open the A-Sun tournament against Queens University (Charlotte, NC) who is in their first year of D-1 ball.

I am warming more to the idea that neither OK State and WVU make the field

 

[kcg88]

Palm's update still has Rutgers as an 11 seed. I know it's been beaten to death but what is this dude's deal? His justification for being low on us before was lack of road wins -- this time we have four road Q1 wins!

 

[bac2therac]

Where would you seed Rutgers if they win the final two games of the regular season and at least the first game of the BTT?

I think a 8 could sneak as 7...going to be tough to move up. The 3 Q3 losses come into play vs schools like Illinois, MSU, MD with better ooc sos and cleaner profiles. RU may have more wins but those schools check all the other boxes. Wouldnt rule out a 7 because schools Duke and Missouri could fall off a bit.

 

[bac2therac]

Palm's update still has Rutgers as an 11 seed. I know it's been beaten to death but what is this dude's deal? His justification for being low on us before was lack of road wins -- this time we have four road Q1 wins!

yeah makes no sense based on current resume...that was a Q1 win last night....the win at Wisconsin was q1..yes lower end wins but those teams are last 4 in last 4 out type, 2 road wins and it seems he and some others didnt give RU credit for those wins while penalizing them harshly for losing to Michigan at home which in reality isnt a bad loss given the Wolverines are showing up in some brackets now.. He will probably say its about having 3 Q3 losses

having usc with their flimsy profile seeded ahead of RU is bizarre

 

[goru7]

I think a 8 could sneak as 7...going to be tough to move up. The 3 Q3 losses come into play vs schools like Illinois, MSU, MD with better ooc sos and cleaner profiles. RU may have more wins but those schools check all the other boxes. Wouldnt rule out a 7 because schools Duke and Missouri could fall off a bit.

If we win the last 2 and get the double bye and make it to the semi’s , we will be a 7 seed. That means winning these next 3 games.

 

[goru7]

yeah makes no sense based on current resume...that was a Q1 win last night....the win at Wisconsin was q1..yes lower end wins but those teams are last 4 in last 4 out type, 2 road wins and it seems he and some others didnt give RU credit for those wins while penalizing them harshly for losing to Michigan at home which in reality isnt a bad loss given the Wolverines are showing up in some brackets now.. He will probably say its about having 3 Q3 losses

Palm is a clown with his bias against us. He changes the criteria or what he harps on . No road wins ? Okay , they have those . Cannot beat good teams on the road like my Purdue team ? Okay , they have and also NW. They are slumping now and been on a losing streak so not a good team now ? Okay , I am going against total body of work and will only focus on last 6 games since MAG went down and violate every principle of seeding but I do not care because I hate Rutgers. A clown when it comes to us. When most of the other bracketologists still had us still as a 9 and DeCourcy had us as a 8 , but CBS doing the Illinois / Ohio State and Wisconsin / Michigan game using Palm’s bracket with RU as an 11 seed shows up , I wanted to put an arrow thru his seeding.

 

[bac2therac]

If we win the last 2 and get the double bye and make it to the semi’s , we will be a 7 seed. That means winning these next 3 games.

in the double bye case yeah our first round will be a really good team but if we dont get the bye at 12-8 then that first round game might not be against a tourney team.

 

[GRU23]

Brad Wachtel has us as the third 8th seed. I wonder how much it will take for Rutgers to get a 7 seed

 

[RUChoppin]

Palm is a clown with his bias against us. He changes the criteria or what he harps on . No road wins ? Okay , they have those . Cannot beat good teams on the road like my Purdue team ? Okay , they have and also NW. They are slumping now and been on a losing streak so not a good team now ? Okay , I am going against total body of work and will only focus on last 6 games since MAG went down and violate every principle of seeding but I do not care because I hate Rutgers. A clown when it comes to us. When most of the other bracketologists still had us still as a 9 and DeCourcy had us as a 8 , but CBS doing the Illinois / Ohio State and Wisconsin / Michigan game using Palm’s bracket with RU as an 11 seed shows up , I wanted to put an arrow thru his seeding.

Palm is to bracketoligy what Mel Kiper is to mock NFL drafts.

 

[fatsam98]

Palm's update still has Rutgers as an 11 seed. I know it's been beaten to death but what is this dude's deal? His justification for being low on us before was lack of road wins -- this time we have four road Q1 wins!

The first thing you see on his updated bracket is a First Four game of Okie State vs West Virginia. The guy is a complete clown.

 

[goru7]

in the double bye case yeah our first round will be a really good team but if we dont get the bye at 12-8 then that first round game might not be against a tourney team.

Yes. I was assuming we get the double bye winning the last 2 and with the other teams schedules that more than likely happens and then the next game on Friday is a Quad 1

 

[goru7]

Brad Wachtel has us as the third 8th seed. I wonder how much it will take for Rutgers to get a 7 seed

Win the next 2 regular season games , get the Double Bye and win one getting to the BIG 10 semi’s.

 

[fatsam98]

It feels like the conference tournaments haven't had a big impact on seeding last couple of years. And maybe rightfully so, it's only an extra game or two.

 

[cubuffsdoug]

yeah makes no sense based on current resume...that was a Q1 win last night....the win at Wisconsin was q1..yes lower end wins but those teams are last 4 in last 4 out type, 2 road wins and it seems he and some others didnt give RU credit for those wins while penalizing them harshly for losing to Michigan at home which in reality isnt a bad loss given the Wolverines are showing up in some brackets now.. He will probably say its about having 3 Q3 losses

having usc with their flimsy profile seeded ahead of RU is bizarre

I think fans forget some writers have agendas. They are people too. It appears Rutgers has never been a team he likes, and no matter what they do, he will never give the team credit for its accomplishments.

 

[goru7]

It feels like the conference tournaments haven't had a big impact on seeding last couple of years. And maybe rightfully so, it's only an extra game or two.

You are right. They have not moved the needle and valuing full regular season over a 3-4 day tourney. Which is the more fair and correct approach.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

yeah makes no sense based on current resume...that was a Q1 win last night....the win at Wisconsin was q1..yes lower end wins but those teams are last 4 in last 4 out type, 2 road wins and it seems he and some others didnt give RU credit for those wins while penalizing them harshly for losing to Michigan at home which in reality isnt a bad loss given the Wolverines are showing up in some brackets now.. He will probably say its about having 3 Q3 losses

having usc with their flimsy profile seeded ahead of RU is bizarre

I don’t agree with his seeding of Rutgers, but he at least seems pretty consistent in his bracket of favoring teams with lower loss counts even if they have less quality wins.

The one I really can’t figure out is Creighton. I think Palm’s 8 is probably even too high for them but Lunardi’s 5 seed seems ridiculous to me. They have the same total number of losses as us. The same home loss to Nebraska. Their neutral loss to BYU is pretty comparable to our loss to Temple. I get we have that extra home loss to Seton Hall but the win @ Purdue is much better than anything they have. @ NW and Indiana are similar to UConn and Xavier (both home). Michigan State (Garden) and Maryland are better than Providence and Arkansas (neutral). @ Wisconsin and @ PSU are both better than @ SHU and TT (neutral). What am I missing?

 

[koko2315]

It feels like the conference tournaments haven't had a big impact on seeding last couple of years. And maybe rightfully so, it's only an extra game or two.

Especially the conferences that roll right into Sunday…almost no hearing besides AQ status

 

[cubuffsdoug]

I don’t agree with his seeding of Rutgers, but he at least seems pretty consistent in his bracket of favoring teams with lower loss counts even if they have less quality wins.

The one I really can’t figure out is Creighton. I think Palm’s 8 is probably even too high for them but Lunardi’s 5 seed seems ridiculous to me. They have the same total number of losses as us. The same home loss to Nebraska. Their neutral loss to BYU is pretty comparable to our loss to Temple. I get we have that extra home loss to Seton Hall but the win @ Purdue is much better than anything they have. @ NW and Indiana are similar to UConn and Xavier (both home). Michigan State (Garden) and Maryland are better than Providence and Arkansas (neutral). @ Wisconsin and @ PSU are both better than @ SHU and TT (neutral). What am I missing?

As I said, these people have favorites and agendas that impact their ability to be impartial.

 

[G- RUnit]

Especially the conferences that roll right into Sunday…almost no hearing besides AQ

It feels like the conference tournaments haven't had a big impact on seeding last couple of years. And maybe rightfully so, it's only an extra game or two.

I can not disagree more. Major implications. I think we got so hosed last. We got the double bye last because we had a great season. We were 4th place in the B1G. They penalized us because we then lost to Iowa in our first game. An Iowa team that won the B1G tourney! Our reward….put Rutgers in the play in game. Conference tournament had a ridiculous impact on our seeding.